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Casual Inference

Casual Inference

Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray 68 Episodes Sep 14, 2026

Keep it casual with the Casual Inference podcast. Your hosts Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray talk all things epidemiology, statistics, data science, causal inference, and public health. Sponsored by the American Journal of Epidemiology.

Episodes

Regression to the Mean Girls | The Comfort of Competence and the Speed of Justice, According to Law & Order
Regression to the Mean Girls | The Comfort of Competence and the Speed of Justice, According to Law & Order Sep 14, 2026 01:13:31 Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [⁠Apple Podcasts⁠], [⁠Spotify⁠], or wherever you love to listen!Christine Zhang⁠ (⁠New York Times⁠) joins ⁠⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠⁠⁠ with a data-driven side quest into the TV show Law and Order. Check out the full analysis here: ⁠⁠⁠regressiontothemeangirls.com⁠⁠⁠Links to content we chat about on the episode:⁠Wrong Number newslett
Regression to the Mean Girls | The Work is Mysterious and Important: Severance Data
Regression to the Mean Girls | The Work is Mysterious and Important: Severance Data Sep 7, 2026 00:42:02 Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [Apple Podcasts], [Spotify], or wherever you love to listen!⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠ return with a data-driven side quest into the TV show Severance. Lucy analyzes whether Milchick really uses more complicated language than his colleagues.Check out the full analysis here: ⁠⁠regressiontothemeangirls.com⁠⁠Links to content we chat about
Regression to the Mean Girls | Romance by the Numbers: First Sparks Across Tropes
Regression to the Mean Girls | Romance by the Numbers: First Sparks Across Tropes Aug 31, 2026 00:56:48 Sarah Lotspeich⁠ and ⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠ introduce Regression to the Mean Girls, a podcast about data-driven side quests in pop culture. In this episode, Sarah analyzes 45 recent romance novels to find out how different romance tropes affect the timing of the couple’s first kiss.Check out the full analysis here: ⁠https://regressiontothemeangirls.com/⁠Links to content we chat about on the
Optimizing Data Workflows with Emily Riederer | Season 6 Episode 8
Optimizing Data Workflows with Emily Riederer | Season 6 Episode 8 Jun 26, 2025 00:52:54 Emily Riederer is a Data Science Senior Manager at Credit Risk Modeling Capital One. Her website can be found here: https://www.emilyriederer.com/   Follow along on Bluesky: Emily: ‪@emilyriederer.bsky.social‬ Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social   🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.
Combining Data & Making Effects Generalizable with Carly Brantner | Season 6 Episode 7
Combining Data & Making Effects Generalizable with Carly Brantner | Season 6 Episode 7 Jun 17, 2025 00:52:04 Carly Brantner is an assistant professor of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics at Duke University and Duke Clinical Research Institute. Resources from this episode: multicate: R package for estimating conditional average treatment effects across one or more studies using machine learning methods PCORnet® Front Door: Access point for potential investigators, patient groups, and other stakeholders t
The Art of Clarity with Andrew Heiss | Season 6 Episode 6
The Art of Clarity with Andrew Heiss | Season 6 Episode 6 May 29, 2025 00:49:30 Andrew Heiss is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Management and Policy at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University. Vincent's "What is your estimand" section in his {marginaleffects} book: https://marginaleffects.com/chapters/challenge.html#sec-goals_estimand Article on defining estimands: https://doi.org/10.1177/00031224211004187 Andrew's margina
Study Critique: What Went Wrong and How We'd Do It Differently | Season 6 Episode 5
Study Critique: What Went Wrong and How We'd Do It Differently | Season 6 Episode 5 May 8, 2025 00:55:21 In this episode Lucy and Ellie dig into a recently publicized paper, "Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid", which has gained attention after being promoted by RFK Jr. as evidence that vaccines cause autism.    Ellie breaks down her Substack critique of the study. Together, she and Lucy discuss the methodological flaws and what a bett
From Model to Meaning with Vincent Arel-Bundock | Season 6 Episode 4
From Model to Meaning with Vincent Arel-Bundock | Season 6 Episode 4 Apr 24, 2025 00:45:19 Vincent Arel-Bundock is a professor at the Université de Montréal, where he studies comparative and international political economy. Vincent's website: https://arelbundock.com/ Vincent's book "Model to Meaning: How to Interpret Statistical Models With marginaleffects for R and Python": https://marginaleffects.com/     Follow along on Bluesky: Vincent: @vincentab.bsky.social Ellie: @epiel
Propensity Scores, R Packages, and Practical Advice with Noah Greifer | Season 6 Episode 3
Propensity Scores, R Packages, and Practical Advice with Noah Greifer | Season 6 Episode 3 Apr 10, 2025 01:22:08 Noah Greifer is a statistical consultant and programmer at Harvard University. Episode notes: WeightIt package: https://ngreifer.github.io/WeightIt/ MatchIt package: https://kosukeimai.github.io/MatchIt/ Noah's awesome Stack Exchange post: https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/544958 Follow along on Bluesky: Noah: @noahgreifer.bsky.social Ellie: @EpiEllie.bsky.social Lucy: @LucyStats.bsky.s
Causal Assumptions and Large Language Models | Season 6 Episode 2
Causal Assumptions and Large Language Models | Season 6 Episode 2 Mar 27, 2025 00:51:50 Lucy and Ellie chat about large language models, chat interfaces, and causal inference. Do LLMs Act as Repositories of Causal Knowledge?: https://arxiv.org/html/2412.10635v1 Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.
Data Integration for Impact with Len Testa | Season 6 Episode 1
Data Integration for Impact with Len Testa | Season 6 Episode 1 Feb 28, 2025 00:44:47 Lucy chats with Len Testa about a recent analysis he did which combined over 150 publicly available data sources to answer a question about the affordability of Disney World. Len's Deep Dive Post on the Touring Plans Blog [Blog Post] Wall Street Journal Artcile, "Even Disney Is Worried About the High Cost of a Disney Vacation" [Article] Follow along on Bluesky: Len: @lentesta.bsky.social Ell
Starting the Conversation on Models with Alyssa Bilinski | Season 5 Episode 11
Starting the Conversation on Models with Alyssa Bilinski | Season 5 Episode 11 Jul 10, 2024 00:48:11 Alyssa Bilinski, Peterson Family Assistant Professor of Health Policy, and Assistant Professor of Biostatistics, at Brown University School of Public Health. Her research focuses on developing novel methods for policy evaluation and applying these to identify interventions that most efficiently improve population health and well-being. Episode notes: PNAS paper: https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.

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