Reuters Morning Bid
Reuters Morning Bid provides essential market news and analysis to start your trading day. It delivers unfiltered updates straight from the Reuters newsroom, covering global financial markets and key economic events. The podcast offers concise, actionable insights for investors and traders.
Episodes
Soft jobs, hard choices
The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 110,000 forecast in a Reuters poll, taking pressure off the Fed and pushing the dollar lower. Meanwhile, chip stocks sell off as investors rotate out of AI, and Asian factory activity expands, giving global stocks their best week since May.
Today’s recommended read: LME metals whipsawed by war and peace in first half of 2026, Andy Ho
Hire expectations
Meta surges 10% after reports the company is building out a cloud business and looking to monetize excess AI computing capacity. June payrolls land a day early, with the Fed's next move riding on the numbers. And the Financial Times reports OpenAI is proposing to hand the U.S. government a 5% stake ahead of a planned IPO.
Today’s recommended read: Wall Street's aging bull meets an 'everlasting' U
New quarter, old pressures
Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the ECB's Sintra conference as markets hunt for fresh policy signals and Treasury yields climb. A surprise jump in U.S. job openings for a second straight month pushes the odds of a July Fed hike to one in three, with payrolls due Thursday. And the yen hits a 40-year low against the dollar, with Japanese authorities still holding back on intervention.
Today’s recom
Special Edition: Morning Bid halftime show
In a special midyear edition of Morning Bid, Mike Dolan is joined by Jamie McGeever to look back on a wild first half of 2026, with record highs for the S&P 500 and Dow, the best quarter ever for U.S. chip stocks, and the worst month on record for the Magnificent Seven. Plus, a look ahead to midterm elections, a deeply divided Fed outlook, and what a Supreme Court ruling on Lisa Cook means for the
Halfway there
Markets reach the halfway point of 2026 with a packed and shortened week, with the June payrolls report moved to Thursday ahead of the July 4 holiday. Chip stocks are sitting on their best quarter on record, but profit-taking, a possible OpenAI IPO delay, and a fresh warning from the Bank for International Settlements about the durability of the AI boom are giving investors pause. Oil markets shru
Apple turnover
Apple announces price hikes on iPads and MacBooks, blaming surging memory chip costs, sending its stock down six percent. Reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 add to nerves around the AI trade. A vessel strike in the Strait of Hormuz briefly rattles oil markets before prices resume their slide. And JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon is reported to be staying on for another three years.
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Memory serves
Micron, one of the world's leading memory stocks, reports earnings roughly $5 billion above expectations and outlines $22 billion in customer commitments, reigniting the chip stock rally worldwide. Meanwhile, crude oil completes a dramatic round trip to pre-Iran-war levels, but two-year Treasury yields remain about 75 basis points higher than before the conflict began, suggesting the Fed's inflati
Abandon chip?
A dramatic selloff in chip stocks has Wall Street asking whether the AI boom is hitting a wall. With rising bets on Fed rate hikes despite Chair Kevin Warsh ditching forward guidance, investors are bracing for more volatility.
Today’s recommended read: Fed's bubble blind spot is cause for anxiety, Mike Dolan
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Keep Calm and Carry On
On the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote, UK gilt markets are calm in the face of Keir Starmer's resignation, a signal investors are taking the UK's seventh prime minister in a decade largely in stride - for now. Meanwhile, the threat of a US rate hike hit the biggest tech stocks on Wall Street, including new IPO darling SpaceX. The sell-off was far reaching - Japan's yen hovers near a 40-year l
Hot under the collar
A 60-day ceasefire framework between the U.S. and Iran gives oil markets some relief, though traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at roughly a quarter of pre-war levels. As investors continue to measure the heat in the Middle East, over in the UK the resignation of Keir Starmer has been met with a cool reception. Many are waiting to see the details of transition. Meanwhile, the severity of
Tell it to me Strait
Doubts emerge over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework after a last-minute cancellation of talks leaves oil traders on edge ahead of a long weekend. With U.S. and much of Asian markets closed for holidays, thin liquidity is amplifying price swings. The yen and SpaceX shares are also in focus.
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Warsh and Peace
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh makes his debut with a hawkish hold and a notably short statement, wrong-footing markets that had hoped for a softer tone. Meanwhile, details of the U.S.-Iran deal suggest Iran may have come away with more leverage than expected, even as crude prices fall on Hormuz optimism. And a Manchester by-election could determine who becomes Britain's next prime minister.
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Warsh's World
It's Fed day, and Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, with markets watching for signals on the path ahead. Oil slides below $80 a barrel as details of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding emerge, while SpaceX briefly overtakes Microsoft in market value following its recent IPO.
Today’s recommended read: Is the Iran war just an energy shock - or a turning point?, Clyde Russell
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Yen for more
The Bank of Japan delivers a widely expected 25-basis-point rate hike, its highest level since 1995, yet the yen fails to rally and traders keep piling on bearish bets. Plus, Nvidia taps the bond market for the first time in five years, and SpaceX shares keep surging after last week's blockbuster IPO.
Today’s recommended read: Oil markets bet Trump would chicken out on Iran. They won, Ron Bousso
Special Edition: Iran deal
A U.S.-Iran peace framework sends oil down around 4% and lifts equity futures, but analysts caution that physical supply disruptions, insurance costs, and unresolved leverage questions mean relief for energy markets could be slow to materialize. The deal lands just as central banks in Washington, Tokyo, and London prepare for a busy week of rate decisions.
Today’s recommended read: Fragile Iran d
SpaceX’s launch day
SpaceX makes its stock market debut after raising $75 billion in the world’s biggest IPO. Friday’s trading will be a key test for the rocket maker and Wall Street. With Anthropic, OpenAI, Alphabet and Meta all eyeing fresh capital raises, the question is whether there is enough demand to cover the supply.
Today’s recommended read: Red-hot SpaceX IPO may burn retail buyers, Jamie McGeever
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Hike and seek
The ECB is widely expected to raise rates on Thursday with two more are already priced in for the year. Meanwhile, a fragile calm returns after U.S.-Iran military exchanges shook markets overnight, and Oracle falls 10% after results highlight a heavy debt load.
Today’s recommended read: 'Global euro' needs more joint debt to pass muster, Mike Dolan
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Oil pump and circumstance
Oil rebounds as U.S. and Iran trade fresh strikes. Wall Street braces for a inflation report expected to push the headline rate above 4%. And the SpaceX IPO, a 10-year Treasury auction, and a likely ECB rate hike round out a packed week.
Today’s recommended read: Stock-pay boom amplifies US economic drumbeat, Mike Dolan
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Chip happens
Dip buyers pile back into chip stocks. China's May exports beat forecasts, fueled by a jump in memory chip prices - raising fresh inflation concerns for the Fed. Plus, OpenAI files confidentially for an IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, the third of the mega IPOs expected this summer.
Today’s recommended read: Will AI become a public utility?, Mike Dolan
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Week Ahead: SpaceX odyssey
The SpaceX IPO - reported to be more than twice oversubscribed - arrives against a turbulent backdrop, with the chip sector posting its worst single-day drop of the year on Friday. A blowout May payrolls report has markets pricing in nearly two Fed rate hikes within 12 months, defying President Trump's calls for lower rates. And oil surges more than 4% after Israel and Iran trade missile strikes,
No hire, no fire?
The U.S. jobs report is expected to show 85,000 positions added in May and unemployment holding at 4.3%, as economists describe the labor market as a "low hire, low fire stalemate." Meanwhile, Broadcom's AI chip miss sends South Korean stocks toward their worst week since March and Blackstone caps withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund after redemptions top $4.5 billion.
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Broadcom stumbles
Broadcom's rare earnings miss sends shares down more than 10% after hours, rattling a chip sector priced for perfection. Strong U.S. jobs and activity data push markets to price in nearly a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike as soon as October, while the yen slides to its weakest against the dollar since July 2024.
Today’s recommended read: First goes the Fed dot, then guidance - and then a hike?, Mik
Quantum leap
Microsoft says its new quantum computing chip is a thousand times more powerful than its predecessor and that a commercially viable machine could arrive by 2029 - claims scientists are calling wildly optimistic. Meanwhile, fighting resumes in the Gulf despite a technical ceasefire, alarming energy markets. And U.S. job openings surge well beyond expectations in April.
Today’s recommended read: Wi
IPO, therefore I am
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing sets off a frenzy of new listings, but Alphabet's plan to raise $80 billion in equity takes some of the shine off the excitement. Meanwhile, oil prices swing nearly five percent before retreating after Trump signals U.S.-Iran talks may still produce a deal, and U.S. factory activity hits a four-year high - raising fresh questions about inflation.
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Chips with everything
NVIDIA unveils an AI chip for personal computers as Jensen Huang takes the stage in Taipei. Samsung adds another 10% and South Korean exports post their fastest growth since 1984. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran missile strikes resume and a hoped-for ceasefire memorandum shows no sign of progress.
Today’s recommended read: US gasoline market set for fresh test after near-record stock draws, Gavin Maguire
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Week Ahead: Summertime and the living isn't easy for the Fed
Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting in June, but Jerome Powell may still make his presence felt. His board seat runs to early 2028, making him a potential swing vote. Meanwhile, questions are growing over whether Warsh will move to scrap the dot plot and reduce the Fed's balance sheet. A move analysts warn could add volatility and a risk premium at a time when borrowing costs are already high
Week in Review: Hot inflation, trillion-dollar chips, and Blue Origin
This week, U.S. inflation hits a three-year high. Fed officials warn that AI - meant to ease inflation - might actually be making it worse. Plus, Micron and SK Hynix cross trillion-dollar valuations for the first time and a rocket built by the Jeff Bezos-owned space company Blue Origin blows up on the launchpad.
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Markets bet on an Iran deal
Markets are pricing in a U.S.-Iran deal, but U.S. President Donald Trump is yet to approve it and Iran saysit has not been finalized. Meanwhile, the Fed's inflation gauge just hit a three-year high,leaving the Fed running out of reasons not to hike. Plus, Anthropic's valuation just overtook OpenAI - funded in part by the very chipmakers it needs to build its models.
Today’s recommended read: What
Three months and counting
Three months into the Gulf war, renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges have sent oil back to around $100 a barrel, dashing hopes of an imminent peace deal. April PCE inflation is forecast near 3.8% - almost twice the Fed's target - with May nowcasts already above 4%. Plus, U.S. President Dondald Trump's softer tone on rate cuts is raising fresh questions about whether his administration's weaker-dol
Trillion-dollar club
As Micron Technology and SK Hynix join the trillion-dollar club, Samsung is sharing the wealth - striking a deal to pay some memory chip workers bonuses of over $400,000. But as long-term U.S. borrowing costs climb, analysts warn that rising bond yields could start to weigh on equity markets.
Today’s recommended read: US bonds about to bite stocks, Mike Dolan
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From deal hopes to fresh strikes
Weekend hopes for a U.S.-Iran breakthrough fade after fresh American strikes on southern Iran, though markets are treating the move as a possible push toward agreement rather than escalation. Oil is up around 2% Tuesday, reversing only part of Monday's losses. Plus, fresh U.S. consumer confidence data is out today - with high fuel prices expected to have hit hard.
Today’s recommended read: China'
Week Ahead: Inflation's summer test
As Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer, energy markets face a potential crunch point in June if the Strait of Hormuz blockage remains unresolved and fuel inventories keep falling. Meanwhile, U.S. PCE inflation data due this week is expected to show headline inflation moving above the Fed's current policy rate.
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Week in Review: SpaceX shoots for the stars
Nvidia announced an $80 billion stock buyback and forecast a trillion dollars in AI chip sales — and markets shrugged. SpaceX filed for what could be the biggest IPO in history, promising Mars colonies and orbital data centers. Plus, bond markets finally price in the Iran war's inflation hit, with one analyst telling Reuters that U.S. Treasury yields now feel "unanchored."
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NACHO time just yet
*This episode was updated to remove incorrect normal Strait of Hormuz traffic figures*
Oil traders are pushing back against the NACHO trade - "Not Any Chance Hormuz Opens" - sending Brent crude down around 6% on the week as positive signals emerge from U.S.-Iran talks. But differences over Iran’s uranium stockpiles and a toll on the Strait of Hormuz as well as President Trump's threat to resume b
Nvidia's big beat falls flat
Nvidia nearly doubled its earnings, forecast $91 billion in revenue above consensus, raised its dividend and announced an $80 billion buyback - and its shares still fell about 1%. SpaceX filed for its IPO with OpenAI is reportedly next. Plus, Reuters/Ipsos polling finds Republican voters evenly split on Trump's cost-of-living record, a notable marker heading into the midterms.
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Nvidia's moment of truth
Nvidia's blockbuster earnings are widely anticipated, but with the stock already up around 20% this year and the bar set sky-high, markets are bracing for volatility either way. All of this plays out against a backdrop of U.S. inflation potentially heading above 4%, rising bond yields, and a looming potential strike at Samsung that raises fresh questions about labor's place in the AI economy.
Tod
The name's bond
The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains above 5% even after President Trump says he called off planned strikes on Iran, with a Bank of America survey showing most fund managers expect it to climb toward 6%. NextEra's $67 billion bid for Dominion would create the third-largest U.S. energy company. And UK gilt yields edge lower after Labour leadership contender Andy Burnham signals he would sti
Yield pain, no gain
U.S. 30-year Treasury yields reach levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis, rattling bond markets across the globe. Oil above $110 and sticky inflation add to the pressure as G7 finance chiefs meet in Paris, and markets await Nvidia earnings for the latest read on the AI spending surge.
Today’s recommended read: Opaque oil deals around Hormuz test the petrodollar, Ron Bousso
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Week Ahead: Nvidia’s moment
Nvidia's earnings this week are expected to confirm the AI boom's momentum, but questions linger over whether hyperscalers can sustain their massive capital spending. Meanwhile, U.S. mortgage rates near 6.5% and 30-year Treasury yields topping 5% for the first time since 2007 are raising alarms that the rates market is flashing warnings that stock markets appear to be ignoring.
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Week in Review: Beijing summit, price shocks and UK political jitters
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing, but markets had little to take away, with no breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation hit its highest levels since 2022 and 2023, complicating the path for incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and UK gilts came under pressure as a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer rattled sterling.
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Strait talk, little action
U.S. President Donald Trump flies home from Beijing after a two-day summit that delivered scant details on trade and no breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Fed chair Jerome Powell's eight-year tenure ends today as Kevin Warsh inherits a divided committee. And UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a mounting leadership challenge as Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham moves closer to a leadership run.
Le
Trump and Xi talk - markets wait
Day one of U.S. President Donald Trump's Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping produced more than two hours of talks and a roster of top CEOs, but no concrete trade or policy announcements. Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices post their steepest monthly rise in four years, 30-year Treasury yields topped 5% for the first time since 2007. And, Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair just as ma
The 4% problem
U.S. April inflation lands at 3.8% and May is forecast to top 4% - twice the Fed's target - as the Iran fuel shock continues to ripple through prices. Futures markets now put an 80% chance on the Fed raising rates within twelve months. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Beijing with a delegation of top CEOs for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Plus, UK Prime Minister Keir S
Warshed and ready
Kevin Warsh is set to be cleared to take over the Federal Reserve just as a U.S. inflation reading is forecast to show headline CPI at its highest in about three years. Markets are already rattled after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "on life support," sending crude above $105 a barrel, while UK gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 as cabinet members reportedly turn against Prime
Xi marks the spot
Chinese stocks hit 11-year highs and the yuan reaches a three-year peak against the dollar ahead of a Trump-Xi summit later this week, with above-forecast export growth and China's highest producer price inflation in more than three years potentially strengthening Beijing's hand at the table. Oil climbs back above $104 a barrel after Trump called Iran's response to U.S. peace proposals "totally un
Week ahead: Yuan to watch
Presidents Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing with a packed agenda: the Iran war and its energy implications, trade and tariffs, and a deepening tech rivalry that includes a reported Beijing order for Meta to unwind its investment in Chinese AI startup Manas. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan has hit its highest level in three years ahead of the summit, fueling speculation about exchange rate disc
Week in review: Big oil bets, jobs and tariffs
Amanda Cooper and Peter Devlin discuss the week that was, including Reuters revelation that a total of $7 billion oil price bets ahead the Iran war news. Hear how US jobs numbers beat expectations beat for a second straight month and what another court ruling on tariffs could mean to the global economy.
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Unstoppable stock rally?
Stocks are still defying gravity, even as Gulf tensions flare and President Trump's tariffs face another legal setback. With U.S. jobs numbers due later today, investors are about to find out how much good news is already priced in.
Today’s recommended read: Shrinking US fuel stocks leave Trump exposed, Ron Bousso
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Chip stock boom
Asian markets return from Golden Week to a tech-driven rally, with Japan's Nikkei surging 6% and SoftBank jumping nearly 20%. Meanwhile, Tehran mulls a one-page U.S. proposal to end the Iran war, and U.S. labor market data shows hiring holding up despite the oil shock.
Today’s recommended read: Trapdoor creaks for dollar if Iran war ends, Mike Dolan
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Iran's 'Trump' card
Oil falls and stocks hit another record high after the Trump administration suspends "Project Freedom," citing progress in Iran negotiations. AMD surges 16% and Samsung jumps more than 10% on roaring chip demand tied to the AI build-out. And long-dated government bond yields climb to multi-decade highs in the U.S. and UK.
Today’s recommended read: US long bonds over 5% - buy or beware?, Mike Dola
What is the NACHO trade?
Oil holds above $110 a barrel as fighting in the Gulf intensifies, with Iranian forces striking a UAE oil installation and small boats exchanging fire with U.S. forces near the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a sharp upgrade to U.S. earnings forecasts and soaring AI spending projections keep equity investors from heading for the exits.
Today’s recommended read: Forget 3% US inflation. It's heading f
The week ahead: Fed fight
Kevin Warsh steps into the Fed chair role this week with three regional Fed presidents calling for the removal of any easing bias and Jerome Powell staying on the board until 2028 — leaving no immediate new vacancy for the White House to fill. Plus, Friday's payrolls report will be the week's key test of whether the employment side of the economy remains as resilient as it has been since the Iran
Week in Review: OPEC minus one
The UAE announced it is pulling out of OPEC, a move that analysts say could complicate the group's ability to manage production quotas. The Fed held rates but recorded its biggest board dissent since 1992, with Powell announcing he'll stay on as governor and warning against what he called a "battering" of Fed independence. The Bank of England and ECB signaled they could hike as soon as June, thoug
Yen jolt
With Japanese markets on holiday and liquidity thin, the yen jumps sharply on what sources suggest may be a second round of official buying. Central banks in Europe lean hawkish despite stagflation concerns, while Apple's earnings beat is tempered by Tim Cook's warning that iPhone prices could rise due to chip shortages.
Today’s recommended read: The UAE dumping OPEC may not affect crude as antic
Powell era ends, hawks rise
U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the Iran blockade could last months, sending Brent crude to its highest level since the war began and feeding U.S. inflation expectations. Jerome Powell confirmed he will remain on the Federal Reserve board after his term as chair ends May 15, a move that blocks Trump from immediately filling his seat. Plus, Meta slid around 7% on rising CapEx concerns, while
OPEC fractures
OPEC loses its fourth-biggest producer. Jerome Powell prepares to chair what is almost certainly his final Federal Reserve policy meeting with inflation ticking back up. And a quiet Wall Street Journal report about OpenAI missing targets is rattling the entire AI trade - right before Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta report after the bell.
Today’s recommended read: Transatlantic rate convergence
Yen and bear it
A rare split vote at the BOJ sharpens the debate over Japan’s next rate move, even as the yen struggles to rally. Oil holds above $100 with the Iran conflict frozen, while tech stocks power ahead into a pivotal earnings week.
Today’s recommended read: 'See through' Iran war? Markets exploit permacrisis instead, Mike Dolan
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The Powell hour
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell heads into what could be his last meeting as Fed chair as oil tops $100 and Wall Street seems unfazed by geopolitical tension. AI‑linked stocks lead global markets higher ahead of a big week for tech earnings.
Today’s recommended read: Iran war hands OPEC's swing producer crown to America, Ron Bousso
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Week Ahead: The Fed is watching inflation
Central banks take the spotlight this week, with U.S. inflation data set to test expectations for rate cuts. Plus a look ahead to key mega‑cap earnings.
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Week in Review: Talking about Kevin
Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearings put a spotlight on the future of the Fed. SpaceX’s IPO filing shows Elon Musk retaining control of the rocket maker. Plus, DeepSeek’s latest model shows China’s growing self-sufficiency in AI.
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Stocks over shocks
Oil prices climb again after U.S. President Donald Trump warns Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. But stocks keep rallying, helped by upbeat AI earnings from Intel.
Today’s recommended read: Japan fiscal experiment is lab test for Treasuries, Mike Dolan
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Tech, against the odds
Oil prices are climbing and geopolitics are getting worse, but markets keep clinging to tech. Tesla’s shares pop on positive cash flow, then slip on higher spending plans, raising the question of how long tech optimism can outweigh rising energy costs and global risk.
Today’s recommended read: A Warsh-led Fed's 2% inflation goal might be a different 2%, by Mike Dolan
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Oil shrugs
Oil traders shrug at U.S. President Donald Trump's Iran ceasefire extension. Tesla kicks off a crucial earnings week. Plus, Kevin Warsh signals a future where Fed independence comes with real trade-offs.
Today’s recommended read: Warsh's impossible mission - Tame inflation and please Trump, Mike Dolan
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Another bite at the Apple
Markets shrug off Middle East tensions as tech stocks ride the AI wave. Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh faces Congress. Apple investors stay calm as Tim Cook steps aside, handing the helm to longtime hardware chief John Ternus.
Today’s recommended read: Can Europe take advantage of its savings buffer over US? by Mike Dolan
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Strait talk
Shifting signals around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz send oil prices swinging again, keeping energy markets on edge. U.S. equities stay driven by tech momentum, while UK assets watch renewed political strain.
Today’s recommended read: Is it time to abandon hope the Strait of Hormuz will open soon?, Clyde Russell
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Week Ahead: Back to business
As Wall Street regains lost ground, a political fight over the Federal Reserve threatens to unsettle what comes next.
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Week in Review: Strait expectations
Oil slides as Iran signals shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. banks post solid earnings and China beats growth forecasts.
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Markets fly high, airlines not so much
Stocks are rallying on hopes of an end to the Iran war but European airlines are cancelling flights as the energy crunch deepens. Plus, Netflix founder Reed Hastings is stepping down.
Today’s recommended read: China is coming back – and the timing couldn’t be better, by Stephen Jen
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China's surprise
China’s economy beats expectations and TSMC delivers another blockbuster quarter. Plus, attention swings back to Washington, where President Donald Trump renews his feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, just as his nominee for chair, Kevin Warsh, prepares to face Congress next week.
Today’s recommended read: In the world of war and rivalry, tech is the victor, by Mike Dolan
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Wall Street bets the war is over
The U.S. blockade on Iranian portsis still in force, but the S&P 500 is back flirting with record highs. Plus, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh heads to Congress next week — with just a month to get confirmed before Jerome Powell steps down.
Today’s recommended read: Back to square one? Markets bet Iran war is over, by Mike Dolan
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Markets tune out the noise
Wall Street rebounds to pre-war levels as markets shift focus to earnings. Goldman Sachs delivers standout results, though its stock slips. Meanwhile, the IMF prepares fresh economic forecasts as oil shocks and slowing trade complicate the global outlook.
Today’s recommended read: Orban's fall clears another roadblock for European markets by Mike Dolan
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Blockade and a hard place?
Oil markets react as the U.S. says it will blockade the Strait of Hormuz following collapsed Iran talks, and U.S. President Donald Trump warns Americans to expect prolonged high fuel prices. And Europe sees a political shift after Hungary’s Viktor Orban is defeated at the polls.
Today’s recommended read: Trump returns to weary and failing playbook with Hormuz blockade threat by Clyde Russell
S
Week ahead: Markets look for reassurance
Hungary votes today, in what could be the country’s most consequential election in years. This week’s bank earnings kick off with expectations still high, but investors will be listening closely for how Wall Street talks about geopolitical risk and private credit.
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Week in Review: Whither the ceasefire
Markets rallied after a US–Iran ceasefire announcement. But with shipping still stalled in the Gulf, oil infrastructure damaged, and fuel costs rising, the economic fallout is already being felt.
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Oil markets remain tense despite a ceasefire
Gas prices are climbing, crude is hitting records, and the latest data could show the biggest inflation jump in years. We explain how energy shocks ripple through the economy — and why the Fed’s “transitory” hopes are looking shaky again.
Today’s recommended read: Ceasefire uncorks market relief, but outlook remains sobering, by Jamie McGeever
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A fragile ceasefire
Markets cheered a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. Less than 48 hours later, doubts are creeping back in — with oil flows still limited, the Fed reassessing inflation risks, and airlines warning of higher costs for consumers.
Today’s recommended read: Refined fuel prices retreat in Asia, but still show supply stress, by Clyde Russell
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The ceasefire that markets want to believe
The U.S. and Iran have agreed a ceasefire. Markets are surging, oil is down 15%, and suddenly a Fed rate cut is back on the table.
Today’s recommended read: Iran war ceasefire pushes energy markets into twilight zone, by Ron Bousso
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Iran deadline approaches
Global markets remain on edge as President Trump's Iran deadline looms with no sign of a quick resolution. Samsung's blockbuster profits lift Asian stocks briefly, while U.S. services data underline the Fed’s growing dilemma.
Today’s recommended read: It's time to end the world's delusions over the Iran energy crisis, Clyde Russell
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Markets play the guessing game
U.S. markets reopen after the long weekend to mixed signals as Trump sets a new Iran deadline, OPEC talks up higher output, and a surprisingly hot US jobs report lands, complicating the Fed’s inflation fight.
Today’s recommended read: Iran war exposes frailties of 'no-hire' US economy by Jamie McGeever
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Week ahead: What the oil shock means for inflation
Next week a new U.S. inflation report lands just as the fallout from the Iran war ripples through energy markets. We look at what the data could show, how energy prices are feeding through the economy, and how the Fed is thinking about its next move.
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