Reuters Morning Bid
Reuters Morning Bid provides essential market news and analysis to start your trading day. It delivers unfiltered updates straight from the Reuters newsroom, covering global financial markets and key economic events. The podcast offers concise, actionable insights for investors and traders.
Episodes
Calling Bessent's Bluff?
Bond markets push Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's buyback strategy to the limit, as yields climb back toward recent highs. U.S. President Donald Trump promises an economic crackdown on Iran as oil prices head for a weekly gain. Plus, Walmart shares tumble after the retailer posts its weakest U.S. sales growth in more than six years.
📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source
Bessent's buyback
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expands bond buybacks to calm a market rattled by rising borrowing costs. Meanwhile, America's debt tops $40 trillion for the first time, underscoring the scale of its funding challenge. Plus, Moderna reports a cancer vaccine breakthrough and sends its shares soaring.
📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. Download the Reuters
Robot Rally
Bond yields hover near multi-decade highs as investors demand more compensation for holding long-term government debt. U.S. President Donald Trump delayed planned tariff hikes on Canadian goods as negotiations on a trade deal continue. And, Chinese robot maker Unitree surges by 600% in its stock market debut, extending investors enthusiasm around AI.
📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis
Bonds come back to bite
Iran says it is shifting to a "fully offensive" military posture sending Brent crude back above $90 a barrel. Thirty-year bond yields are hitting multi-year highs as markets question the outlook for inflation. Tech giants are pouring money into AI infrastructure even as questions about returns remain unanswered.
📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. Download the Reute
Retail therapy
A surprise drop in U.S. retail sales has investors asking whether the American consumer is finally losing steam. As Walmart, Home Depot and Target prepare to report earnings this week, markets look for clues on whether shoppers are merely taking a breather or pulling back more decisively. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump argues higher gasoline prices are worth paying for the war with Iran, while
Hot yields, cool prices
A second straight soft U.S. inflation report sends the S&P 500 to a fresh record and cuts the odds of a September Fed rate hike to roughly one in three. But there's little relief at the long end of the bond market, where the Treasury sells 30-year debt at its highest yield in 25 years, reflecting persistent investor anxiety over deficits and above-target inflation. And in a Reuters exclusive, sour
The debt tab
Inflation cooled as expected, lowering the temperature around the Fed's next move. The U.S. government just sold 10-year debt at its highest auction yield in nearly two decades, underscoring the rising cost of borrowing. Plus new GDP figures challenge the idea that the UK remains stuck in a low-growth rut.
📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. Download the Reuters app he
Banking on CoreWeave
Investors push CoreWeave shares higher after the AI cloud company reported strong results and highlighted more than $100 billion in backlogged orders. Meanwhile, markets are bracing for a closely-watched U.S. inflation report that could shape the Federal Reserve's next move. And oil prices continue to climb as Red Sea attacks persist and progress in U.S.-Iran talks remains elusive.
📲 Podcasts, br
The $500 billion Nvidia bet
Nvidia is reportedly working with Wall Street giants on a financing push that could funnel up to $500 billion into AI infrastructure. Oil prices are climbing again as hopes for a breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran being to fade. And traders are once more trusting Japan's resolve to defend the yen as Treasury yields march higher.
Today's recommended read: Trump reopens Fed battle at critical
Too many Cooks?
President Trump gives Fed Governor Lisa Cook three weeks to answer mortgage fraud allegations, with the deadline falling just before the September FOMC meeting - raising fresh questions about Fed independence under Chair Kevin Warsh. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July in a surprise miss, though a falling unemployment rate and solid construction gains tempered the reaction. All ey
The jobs verdict
A closely watched U.S. jobs report could shape expectations for the Fed's next move on interest rates. Plus, markets are adjusting to a Federal Reserve that is saying less and letting investors do more of the guessing. And, SpaceX weathered a major lockup export without the sell-off many had expected.
Today's recommended read: AI could end Wall Street's EPS obsession by Marty Fridson
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Strait stakes
A proposed Iran deal that would give Tehrangreater control over shopping in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil below $80 a barrel. Gold has posted its biggest one-day gain in six months as investor reassess the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile, Wall Street is cautious after weak chip-sector earnings and ahead of a pivotal U.S. jobs report.
Today's recommended read: US-Japan ac
SpaceX lands hard
SpaceX and AMD beat earnings estimates but saw their shares stumble, even as the Dow and S&P 500 hit fresh records and oil prices slide. Plus, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vows to do "whatever it takes" to help Japan defend the yen.
Today's recommended read: Three midweek thoughts - AI job losses, Fed's White knight and K-shaped inflation by Mike Dolan
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Manufacturing rebounds
U.S. manufacturing just posted its strongest growth in four years, adding to signs of economic resilience. Meanwhile, oil traders try to make sense of conflicting signals over potential Iran talks. And markets are questioning whether efforts by Tokyo and Washington will be enough to keep the yen afloat.
Today's recommended read: U.S. economy is overstimulated - and bond markets fear it by Mike Do
Yen intervention
The yen jumps after a historic U.S.-Japan currency intervention. Wall Street profits are tracking their strongest growth outside a recession. Plus, oil tumbles as hopes rise for renewed U.S.-Iran talks.
Today's recommended read: Iran war ushers in oil refining golden era. It won't last by Ron Bousso
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AI's trillion-dollar bet
Big Tech's spending on AI has now topped a trillion dollars and investors want to returns. Anthropic's Claude AI hacked three companies during testing. Plus, the yen remains under pressure despite intervention.
Today’s recommended read: Europe makes trillion-euro bet to revive its battered industry by Ron Bousso
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The Fed's family fight
The Fed held interest rates steady, but three officials broke ranks and voted for a hike, delivering the "family fight" Chair Kevin Warsh said he wanted. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed after fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. And Big Tech earnings split investors, with Meta and Qualcomm disappointing while Microsoft impressed.
Today’s recommended read: The world's $1.8 quadrillion balance
An unpredictable Fed
SK Hynix's profits surged sixfold and its stock still dropped 10%. The Fed is poised to make its more unpredictable rate decision since 2018. Plus, Microsoft and Meta earnings are up tonight.
Today’s recommended read: Three midweek thoughts - cresting capex, Burnham bounce and Ukraine-Iran by Mike Dolan
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Chip rout
A global chip sell-off rattles tech markets, while oil prices retreat despite tensions in the Middle East. And central banks confront fresh inflation pressures.
Today’s recommended read:Central banks can't 'see through' this many inflationary risks, Mike Dolan
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Made in China
Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT soared 500% on its Shanghai debut to become the country's most valuable company at over half a trillion dollars. Meanwhile, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta prepare to report as cash burn concerns weigh on AI's biggest spenders, and the Fed meets Wednesday with oil retreating nearly $10 from above $100 a barrel after a pause in U.S.-Iran strikes.
Today’s recommend
Trump's tariff wall
Trump imposed new duties on 60 trading partners overnight using a forced labor justification, oil is surging past $100 on Red Sea chaos, the Fed heads into next week's meeting more divided than its been in years, and Intel just shattered Wall Street expectations on the back of the AI boom.
Today’s recommended read: Who is funding America’s widening debt with the rest of the world?, Jamie Mc
Alphabet's AI bill
Alphabet's cloud revenue grew more than 80% year on year and the stock still dropped 3%. Tesla burned cash too, positing its first negative free cash flow in over two years. And with Houthi militants now forcing Saudi tankers to turn around in the Red Sea, oil is pushing toward $100 a barrel - giving the ECB a headache it wasn't expecting today.
Today’s recommended read: America's 'mass affluenc
Yen at 40-year lows
Japan's yen hits a 40-year low above 163 per dollar, putting Tokyo on intervention watch. Alphabet reports earnings after the bell tonight, kicking off hyperscaler earnings season. And Brent crude climbs again as fighting continues in the Gulf, Saudi tankers are turned back and the U.S. confirms the conflict has cost over $37 billion.
Today’s recommended read:Three midweek thoughts - jobs, Fed t
Canada's tariff surprise
Ten days into what was already supposed to be a ceasefire reports emerge of a push to mediate yet another 10-day ceasefire in U.S.-Iran hostilities - leaving markets struggling to keep up. In the UK, bond markets stay relatively calm under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who has committed to keeping UK debt stable over time, appointing John Healey as finance minister. And tariffs are back, with
Oil above $90
Crude tops $90 a barrel for the first time since early June as U.S. strikes on Iran enter their ninth day and two tankers are hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are also watching Alphabet's Wednesday earnings, the first of the major hyperscalers to report. Plus, Andy Burnham is formally named Britain's new prime minister and investors wait to learn who will fill the key role of Finance Minister.
Chip dip
Japanese chip stocks lead a broad sell-off in Asian trading as investors question whether the AI spending cycle has peaked. China's Moonshot unveils what it calls the world's largest open-source AI model as President Xi Jinping hosts a global AI cooperation conference in Beijing. And Netflix shares fall after a second consecutive quarter of disappointing sales growth.
Today’s recommended read:&nb
SpaceX grounded
SpaceX has fallen back below its $135 listing price and sits more than 30% off its post-listing peak, with insiders expected to begin selling as lockup periods expire over the coming months. The company has yet to confirm a date for its first earnings report. TSMC's record 77% profit jump offers some relief to chip investors after a rocky week. Plus, the British pound climbs to a one-year high aga
Bank on it
Europe's ASML raises its full-year revenue forecast, steadying sentiment around AI infrastructure spending after IBM logged its worst single-day stock drop on record. U.S. core CPI posts its first monthly decline in over six years, easing pressure on the Fed. And volatile markets and a busy IPO pipeline hand the big banks a bumper quarter.
Today’s recommended read: China's latest 'shock', Ge
Blockade and a hard place
A fresh escalation in the Gulf, with Iranian missile attacks on shipping and a U.S. blockade declaration, pushes oil sharply higher and overshadows today's U.S. inflation report. Headline CPI had been forecast to fall below 4%, but with oil re-accelerating, that backward-looking relief may already feel like a moot point. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says core inflation is simply "too high," and
Iran's trump card
Oil prices surge but traders aren't panicking yet as U.S.-Iran strikes escalate and Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed - even as U.S. Central Command says around 20 ships got through in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, June CPI data drops Tuesday and big bank earnings kick off a week that will test soaring tech valuations.
Today’s recommended read: Cheap drones turn energy into the glob
SK Hynix makes its Nasdaq debut
SK Hynix hits the Nasdaq today, but can it close the valuation gap with Micron? Also, Japan's Finance Ministry tells its $1.81 trillion pension fund to stop sending money abroad, rattling the yen and Japanese bonds. And Wall Street braces for a brutal Tuesday, with five of the six biggest U.S. banks reporting on the same day.
Today’s recommended read: From curiosity to cornerstone - how batt
Oil's three-day surge
Oil prices jump after President Trump says the U.S. memorandum of understanding with Iran is "over," while chip stocks see a brief Asia-session rally that quickly fades. And the June Fed minutes signal a divided central bank that's in no rush to act on inflation.
Today’s recommended read: Forget TACO. Trump's best Mexican food acronym is TAMALES, Clyde Russell
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Oil spikes, chips slide
Oil jumps after President Donald Trump says the U.S. ceasefire with Iran is over after the two sides traded attacks overnight. Chip stocks slide as China reportedly considers limiting foreign access to its top AI models and DeepSeek pursues its own chip. And FOMC minutes due later in the day arrive against a backdrop of higher bond yields.
Today’s recommended read: Oil refiners' Hormuz windfall m
Samsung's AI problem
Samsung posted a 19-fold jump in quarterly revenue overnight, but shares fell 10% as investors weigh whether the AI trade is shifting from scarcity to abundance. U.S. services activity cooled slightly but remained in expansion territory. And U.S. President Donald Trump travels to Ankara for a NATO summit, where European defense spending pledges and the U.S. troop presence in Europe are expected to
Glut feeling
OPEC+ approves another production quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day, adding to market bets on a supply glut. Chip stocks are also in focus, with Samsung set to report blockbuster earnings and SK Hynix launching its Nasdaq listing. And the NATO summit puts Ukraine back in the spotlight.
Today’s recommended read: OPEC+ to boost crude output, but can it deliver and who will buy?, Clyde Russe
Soft jobs, hard choices
The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 110,000 forecast in a Reuters poll, taking pressure off the Fed and pushing the dollar lower. Meanwhile, chip stocks sell off as investors rotate out of AI, and Asian factory activity expands, giving global stocks their best week since May.
Today’s recommended read: LME metals whipsawed by war and peace in first half of 2026, Andy Ho
Hire expectations
Meta surges 10% after reports the company is building out a cloud business and looking to monetize excess AI computing capacity. June payrolls land a day early, with the Fed's next move riding on the numbers. And the Financial Times reports OpenAI is proposing to hand the U.S. government a 5% stake ahead of a planned IPO.
Today’s recommended read: Wall Street's aging bull meets an 'everlasting' U
New quarter, old pressures
Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the ECB's Sintra conference as markets hunt for fresh policy signals and Treasury yields climb. A surprise jump in U.S. job openings for a second straight month pushes the odds of a July Fed hike to one in three, with payrolls due Thursday. And the yen hits a 40-year low against the dollar, with Japanese authorities still holding back on intervention.
Today’s recom
Special Edition: Morning Bid halftime show
In a special midyear edition of Morning Bid, Mike Dolan is joined by Jamie McGeever to look back on a wild first half of 2026, with record highs for the S&P 500 and Dow, the best quarter ever for U.S. chip stocks, and the worst month on record for the Magnificent Seven. Plus, a look ahead to midterm elections, a deeply divided Fed outlook, and what a Supreme Court ruling on Lisa Cook means for the
Halfway there
Markets reach the halfway point of 2026 with a packed and shortened week, with the June payrolls report moved to Thursday ahead of the July 4 holiday. Chip stocks are sitting on their best quarter on record, but profit-taking, a possible OpenAI IPO delay, and a fresh warning from the Bank for International Settlements about the durability of the AI boom are giving investors pause. Oil markets shru
Apple turnover
Apple announces price hikes on iPads and MacBooks, blaming surging memory chip costs, sending its stock down six percent. Reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 add to nerves around the AI trade. A vessel strike in the Strait of Hormuz briefly rattles oil markets before prices resume their slide. And JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon is reported to be staying on for another three years.
Today’s recom
Memory serves
Micron, one of the world's leading memory stocks, reports earnings roughly $5 billion above expectations and outlines $22 billion in customer commitments, reigniting the chip stock rally worldwide. Meanwhile, crude oil completes a dramatic round trip to pre-Iran-war levels, but two-year Treasury yields remain about 75 basis points higher than before the conflict began, suggesting the Fed's inflati
Abandon chip?
A dramatic selloff in chip stocks has Wall Street asking whether the AI boom is hitting a wall. With rising bets on Fed rate hikes despite Chair Kevin Warsh ditching forward guidance, investors are bracing for more volatility.
Today’s recommended read: Fed's bubble blind spot is cause for anxiety, Mike Dolan
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Keep Calm and Carry On
On the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote, UK gilt markets are calm in the face of Keir Starmer's resignation, a signal investors are taking the UK's seventh prime minister in a decade largely in stride - for now. Meanwhile, the threat of a US rate hike hit the biggest tech stocks on Wall Street, including new IPO darling SpaceX. The sell-off was far reaching - Japan's yen hovers near a 40-year l
Hot under the collar
A 60-day ceasefire framework between the U.S. and Iran gives oil markets some relief, though traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at roughly a quarter of pre-war levels. As investors continue to measure the heat in the Middle East, over in the UK the resignation of Keir Starmer has been met with a cool reception. Many are waiting to see the details of transition. Meanwhile, the severity of
Tell it to me Strait
Doubts emerge over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework after a last-minute cancellation of talks leaves oil traders on edge ahead of a long weekend. With U.S. and much of Asian markets closed for holidays, thin liquidity is amplifying price swings. The yen and SpaceX shares are also in focus.
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Warsh and Peace
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh makes his debut with a hawkish hold and a notably short statement, wrong-footing markets that had hoped for a softer tone. Meanwhile, details of the U.S.-Iran deal suggest Iran may have come away with more leverage than expected, even as crude prices fall on Hormuz optimism. And a Manchester by-election could determine who becomes Britain's next prime minister.
Today’s r
Warsh's World
It's Fed day, and Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, with markets watching for signals on the path ahead. Oil slides below $80 a barrel as details of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding emerge, while SpaceX briefly overtakes Microsoft in market value following its recent IPO.
Today’s recommended read: Is the Iran war just an energy shock - or a turning point?, Clyde Russell
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Yen for more
The Bank of Japan delivers a widely expected 25-basis-point rate hike, its highest level since 1995, yet the yen fails to rally and traders keep piling on bearish bets. Plus, Nvidia taps the bond market for the first time in five years, and SpaceX shares keep surging after last week's blockbuster IPO.
Today’s recommended read: Oil markets bet Trump would chicken out on Iran. They won, Ron Bousso
Special Edition: Iran deal
A U.S.-Iran peace framework sends oil down around 4% and lifts equity futures, but analysts caution that physical supply disruptions, insurance costs, and unresolved leverage questions mean relief for energy markets could be slow to materialize. The deal lands just as central banks in Washington, Tokyo, and London prepare for a busy week of rate decisions.
Today’s recommended read: Fragile Iran d
SpaceX’s launch day
SpaceX makes its stock market debut after raising $75 billion in the world’s biggest IPO. Friday’s trading will be a key test for the rocket maker and Wall Street. With Anthropic, OpenAI, Alphabet and Meta all eyeing fresh capital raises, the question is whether there is enough demand to cover the supply.
Today’s recommended read: Red-hot SpaceX IPO may burn retail buyers, Jamie McGeever
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Hike and seek
The ECB is widely expected to raise rates on Thursday with two more are already priced in for the year. Meanwhile, a fragile calm returns after U.S.-Iran military exchanges shook markets overnight, and Oracle falls 10% after results highlight a heavy debt load.
Today’s recommended read: 'Global euro' needs more joint debt to pass muster, Mike Dolan
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Oil pump and circumstance
Oil rebounds as U.S. and Iran trade fresh strikes. Wall Street braces for a inflation report expected to push the headline rate above 4%. And the SpaceX IPO, a 10-year Treasury auction, and a likely ECB rate hike round out a packed week.
Today’s recommended read: Stock-pay boom amplifies US economic drumbeat, Mike Dolan
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Chip happens
Dip buyers pile back into chip stocks. China's May exports beat forecasts, fueled by a jump in memory chip prices - raising fresh inflation concerns for the Fed. Plus, OpenAI files confidentially for an IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, the third of the mega IPOs expected this summer.
Today’s recommended read: Will AI become a public utility?, Mike Dolan
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Week Ahead: SpaceX odyssey
The SpaceX IPO - reported to be more than twice oversubscribed - arrives against a turbulent backdrop, with the chip sector posting its worst single-day drop of the year on Friday. A blowout May payrolls report has markets pricing in nearly two Fed rate hikes within 12 months, defying President Trump's calls for lower rates. And oil surges more than 4% after Israel and Iran trade missile strikes,
No hire, no fire?
The U.S. jobs report is expected to show 85,000 positions added in May and unemployment holding at 4.3%, as economists describe the labor market as a "low hire, low fire stalemate." Meanwhile, Broadcom's AI chip miss sends South Korean stocks toward their worst week since March and Blackstone caps withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund after redemptions top $4.5 billion.
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Broadcom stumbles
Broadcom's rare earnings miss sends shares down more than 10% after hours, rattling a chip sector priced for perfection. Strong U.S. jobs and activity data push markets to price in nearly a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike as soon as October, while the yen slides to its weakest against the dollar since July 2024.
Today’s recommended read: First goes the Fed dot, then guidance - and then a hike?, Mik
Quantum leap
Microsoft says its new quantum computing chip is a thousand times more powerful than its predecessor and that a commercially viable machine could arrive by 2029 - claims scientists are calling wildly optimistic. Meanwhile, fighting resumes in the Gulf despite a technical ceasefire, alarming energy markets. And U.S. job openings surge well beyond expectations in April.
Today’s recommended read: Wi
IPO, therefore I am
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing sets off a frenzy of new listings, but Alphabet's plan to raise $80 billion in equity takes some of the shine off the excitement. Meanwhile, oil prices swing nearly five percent before retreating after Trump signals U.S.-Iran talks may still produce a deal, and U.S. factory activity hits a four-year high - raising fresh questions about inflation.
Today’s recomm
Chips with everything
NVIDIA unveils an AI chip for personal computers as Jensen Huang takes the stage in Taipei. Samsung adds another 10% and South Korean exports post their fastest growth since 1984. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran missile strikes resume and a hoped-for ceasefire memorandum shows no sign of progress.
Today’s recommended read: US gasoline market set for fresh test after near-record stock draws, Gavin Maguire
S
Week Ahead: Summertime and the living isn't easy for the Fed
Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting in June, but Jerome Powell may still make his presence felt. His board seat runs to early 2028, making him a potential swing vote. Meanwhile, questions are growing over whether Warsh will move to scrap the dot plot and reduce the Fed's balance sheet. A move analysts warn could add volatility and a risk premium at a time when borrowing costs are already high
Week in Review: Hot inflation, trillion-dollar chips, and Blue Origin
This week, U.S. inflation hits a three-year high. Fed officials warn that AI - meant to ease inflation - might actually be making it worse. Plus, Micron and SK Hynix cross trillion-dollar valuations for the first time and a rocket built by the Jeff Bezos-owned space company Blue Origin blows up on the launchpad.
Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuter
Markets bet on an Iran deal
Markets are pricing in a U.S.-Iran deal, but U.S. President Donald Trump is yet to approve it and Iran saysit has not been finalized. Meanwhile, the Fed's inflation gauge just hit a three-year high,leaving the Fed running out of reasons not to hike. Plus, Anthropic's valuation just overtook OpenAI - funded in part by the very chipmakers it needs to build its models.
Today’s recommended read: What
Three months and counting
Three months into the Gulf war, renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges have sent oil back to around $100 a barrel, dashing hopes of an imminent peace deal. April PCE inflation is forecast near 3.8% - almost twice the Fed's target - with May nowcasts already above 4%. Plus, U.S. President Dondald Trump's softer tone on rate cuts is raising fresh questions about whether his administration's weaker-dol
Trillion-dollar club
As Micron Technology and SK Hynix join the trillion-dollar club, Samsung is sharing the wealth - striking a deal to pay some memory chip workers bonuses of over $400,000. But as long-term U.S. borrowing costs climb, analysts warn that rising bond yields could start to weigh on equity markets.
Today’s recommended read: US bonds about to bite stocks, Mike Dolan
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From deal hopes to fresh strikes
Weekend hopes for a U.S.-Iran breakthrough fade after fresh American strikes on southern Iran, though markets are treating the move as a possible push toward agreement rather than escalation. Oil is up around 2% Tuesday, reversing only part of Monday's losses. Plus, fresh U.S. consumer confidence data is out today - with high fuel prices expected to have hit hard.
Today’s recommended read: China'
Week Ahead: Inflation's summer test
As Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer, energy markets face a potential crunch point in June if the Strait of Hormuz blockage remains unresolved and fuel inventories keep falling. Meanwhile, U.S. PCE inflation data due this week is expected to show headline inflation moving above the Fed's current policy rate.
Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his colum
Week in Review: SpaceX shoots for the stars
Nvidia announced an $80 billion stock buyback and forecast a trillion dollars in AI chip sales — and markets shrugged. SpaceX filed for what could be the biggest IPO in history, promising Mars colonies and orbital data centers. Plus, bond markets finally price in the Iran war's inflation hit, with one analyst telling Reuters that U.S. Treasury yields now feel "unanchored."
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NACHO time just yet
*This episode was updated to remove incorrect normal Strait of Hormuz traffic figures*
Oil traders are pushing back against the NACHO trade - "Not Any Chance Hormuz Opens" - sending Brent crude down around 6% on the week as positive signals emerge from U.S.-Iran talks. But differences over Iran’s uranium stockpiles and a toll on the Strait of Hormuz as well as President Trump's threat to resume b
Nvidia's big beat falls flat
Nvidia nearly doubled its earnings, forecast $91 billion in revenue above consensus, raised its dividend and announced an $80 billion buyback - and its shares still fell about 1%. SpaceX filed for its IPO with OpenAI is reportedly next. Plus, Reuters/Ipsos polling finds Republican voters evenly split on Trump's cost-of-living record, a notable marker heading into the midterms.
Today’s recommended
Nvidia's moment of truth
Nvidia's blockbuster earnings are widely anticipated, but with the stock already up around 20% this year and the bar set sky-high, markets are bracing for volatility either way. All of this plays out against a backdrop of U.S. inflation potentially heading above 4%, rising bond yields, and a looming potential strike at Samsung that raises fresh questions about labor's place in the AI economy.
Tod
The name's bond
The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains above 5% even after President Trump says he called off planned strikes on Iran, with a Bank of America survey showing most fund managers expect it to climb toward 6%. NextEra's $67 billion bid for Dominion would create the third-largest U.S. energy company. And UK gilt yields edge lower after Labour leadership contender Andy Burnham signals he would sti
Yield pain, no gain
U.S. 30-year Treasury yields reach levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis, rattling bond markets across the globe. Oil above $110 and sticky inflation add to the pressure as G7 finance chiefs meet in Paris, and markets await Nvidia earnings for the latest read on the AI spending surge.
Today’s recommended read: Opaque oil deals around Hormuz test the petrodollar, Ron Bousso
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Week Ahead: Nvidia’s moment
Nvidia's earnings this week are expected to confirm the AI boom's momentum, but questions linger over whether hyperscalers can sustain their massive capital spending. Meanwhile, U.S. mortgage rates near 6.5% and 30-year Treasury yields topping 5% for the first time since 2007 are raising alarms that the rates market is flashing warnings that stock markets appear to be ignoring.
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Week in Review: Beijing summit, price shocks and UK political jitters
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing, but markets had little to take away, with no breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation hit its highest levels since 2022 and 2023, complicating the path for incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and UK gilts came under pressure as a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer rattled sterling.
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Strait talk, little action
U.S. President Donald Trump flies home from Beijing after a two-day summit that delivered scant details on trade and no breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Fed chair Jerome Powell's eight-year tenure ends today as Kevin Warsh inherits a divided committee. And UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a mounting leadership challenge as Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham moves closer to a leadership run.
Le
Trump and Xi talk - markets wait
Day one of U.S. President Donald Trump's Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping produced more than two hours of talks and a roster of top CEOs, but no concrete trade or policy announcements. Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices post their steepest monthly rise in four years, 30-year Treasury yields topped 5% for the first time since 2007. And, Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair just as ma
The 4% problem
U.S. April inflation lands at 3.8% and May is forecast to top 4% - twice the Fed's target - as the Iran fuel shock continues to ripple through prices. Futures markets now put an 80% chance on the Fed raising rates within twelve months. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Beijing with a delegation of top CEOs for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Plus, UK Prime Minister Keir S
Warshed and ready
Kevin Warsh is set to be cleared to take over the Federal Reserve just as a U.S. inflation reading is forecast to show headline CPI at its highest in about three years. Markets are already rattled after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "on life support," sending crude above $105 a barrel, while UK gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 as cabinet members reportedly turn against Prime
Xi marks the spot
Chinese stocks hit 11-year highs and the yuan reaches a three-year peak against the dollar ahead of a Trump-Xi summit later this week, with above-forecast export growth and China's highest producer price inflation in more than three years potentially strengthening Beijing's hand at the table. Oil climbs back above $104 a barrel after Trump called Iran's response to U.S. peace proposals "totally un
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