Global Data Pod
Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Global Data Pod Weekender: Being there
An interesting week leads us to trim both upside but also downside risks. The balance is still in some question, with the potential for a little upside in the US and Asia. A spirited debate about the internal reaction function of Fed Chair Warsh ensues after this week’s comments in Sintra.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 2 July 2026.
This communication is pro
Global Data Pod: W. European Economics
Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.
This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only.
For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redi
Global Data Pod: Inflation monitor: Energy relief in sight, but core stays sticky
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Abiel Reinhart to discuss the latest inflation developments. Global inflation stepped up further in May, led by a third monthly jump in energy prices, tightening the squeeze on household purchasing power. However, monthly CPI gains have started to cool and June’s sharp decline in oil prices sets up a meaningful deceleration in headline momentu
Global Data Pod Weekender: One battle after another
The battle between the cycle and the energy shock is over, and the cycle has won. The second half will still face headwinds as some supports fade and some drags remain. But the cyclical lift taking shape looks strong, and conviction is high that the expansion is on an upturn. This shifts the conversation to the next battle: If, when, and by how much will central banks need to tap the brake to get
Global Data Pod: W. European Economics
Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.
This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026.
© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research mate
Global Data Pod: W. European Economics
Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.
This podcast was recorded on June 19, 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the
Global Data Pod Weekender: Shifting sands
Growth resilience through 2Q, hints of a deal to get oil flowing through the Strait, and signs of firming labor markets raise the question of shifting growth risks to the upside for 2H26. A reassessment of growth and inflation risks is, in turn, sparking a rethink in central bank policies.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 12 June 2026.
This communication is pr
Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me hear your cycle talk
Despite the purchasing power squeeze from the Middle East conflict, the resilient cycle has dominated the macro landscape. Business spending on capex and hiring looks be broadening out, supporting our thesis that the cycle owes more to fading business caution than to a narrow AI boost. How well the supply side of the economy can keep pace with firming demand will tell the tale for central banks, i
Global Data Pod Weekender: I’m okay, you’re okay
The global expansion is showing resilience to the energy shock as the pre-war cyclical lift we have anticipated is absorbing the loss of purchasing power. As we enter week 14 of the Strait remaining closed, should we feel better, worse, or have the same degree of caution? If the Strait opens, will the cycle accelerate or are there headwinds to still worry about for 2H26? And if not, what should th
Global Data Pod: Inflation monitor: Energy boosts headline, while core pressures build
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports and signals for the path ahead. Surging energy prices pushed global headline inflation up further to 3.4%oya in April, bringing the gain since February to 1%-pt. The three-month annualized headline CPI rate jumped to 6.0%––its strongest pace since 2022––with energy prices alone ad
Global Data Pod Weekender: Wobble, wobble
After the data in recent weeks underscoring the cyclical uplift in the global economy since the start of the year, this week’s DM flash PMIs and China data remind us that the Iran-related headwind is taking a toll and keeps downside risks alive. Absent this risk, inflation pressures are underappreciated and point to a potential central bank problem in the coming quarters.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Global Data Pod Weekender: Le coût de la vie
Inflation is playing a dual role at present. First, as a driver of spending that is boosting the cost of living via higher energy prices. Second, as a reflection of the momentum in the underlying cycle. Central banks are taking note of both, but it's the latter that will have staying power and is thus fueling their hawkish shift.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded
Global Data Pod: The Changing Chessboard of the South Caucasus
In this episode, we unpack how the war in the Middle East has been shaping the economic outlook for Azerbaijan, and why — perhaps surprisingly — it has generated some positive spillovers for Armenia too. We explore how Armenia continues to outperform growth expectations, while its external sector undergoes a structural shift toward IT and financial services that most investors are still overlookin
Global Data Pod Weekender: Save poor Bob if you please
The global economy is approaching a crossroad as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the threat of reaching operational stress levels is now only a month away. The baseline and adverse scenarios are discussed. Two key cushions are 1) a strong start to the year with momentum in manufacturing continuing into April and 2) central banks that may have turned more hawkish again but remain cautiously
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Headline surges, core moderates
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Mike Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the outlook for inflation and central banks. March CPI reports delivered the anticipated spike in headline inflation as energy prices surged in response to the Iran conflict, pushing the three-month annualized headline CPI rate to its strongest pace in three years. Inflation outside of energ
Global Data Pod Weekender: How bad could it get?
With the reversal of last week’s joint statement on opening the Strait of Hormuz and yet one more week closer to damaging quantity constraints, we reassess our adverse scenario for the outlook. Also, we consider what a Warsh Fed would look like.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 24 April 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Instit
Global Data Pod Weekender: Much ado about oil
While not out of the woods, the tail risk around the Middle East shock has faded materially for now. This brings the conversation back to tracking the same forces for growth and inflation discussed before the war, with a dash less growth but a dash more inflation. The “not having your cake and eating it too” theme is back on the menu. The case for more hawkish central banks is made, most clearly f
Global Data Pod Weekender: On the strait and harrow
The fragile cease-fire has not opened the strait or even ended hostilities fully, but the hint of an end keeps our outlook on a path for energy prices to hold steady before gradually drifting lower in 2H26. Absent downside tail risks, which remain large, we see supports to weather the storm. However, signs of slowing consumer spending last quarter and a March drop in surveys raise concerns.
Spea
Global Data Pod Weekender: All’s unclear that ends unclear
The data in hand continue to paint a picture of solid momentum in activity at the start of the year. However, while today’s US payroll report was encouraging, the March global PMIs send a more cautionary signal that fear is building for where the expansion goes in the current quarter. From here, each week of closure in the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk considerably of a much more serious hit fr
Global Data Pod Weekender: That's gonna leave a mark
The energy price shock is finishing its fourth week and the risks of material macro damage are rising. Until then the baseline of Brent oil prices that hold at current levels through midyear and then moderate by year-end makes for a lot of debate (both "should" and "will") about central bank reactions.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2026.
This comm
Global Data Pod Weekender: Another week into the unknown
Strong momentum in 1Q leads to upward revisions but the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a larger downside to growth this year. Despite the growth hit, the boost to inflation and concern of second-round pass-through into core is complicating central bank reactions.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026.
This communication is provided for informatio
Global Data Watch Weekender: Strait no chaser
The central risk to the outlook is whether oil begins flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Baseline views are background features, with scenarios of elevated, high, and surging oil prices the key downside risks to growth. With uncertainty high, central banks will likely stay in wait-and-see mode. The degree to which cyclical context influences policy decisions is debated. A few brief remarks prov
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Michael Hanson and Allan Monks to discuss global inflation developments heading into the Iran conflict; the first-order impact of higher oil prices on headline CPI inflation; the likelihood and magnitude of second-order effects on core inflation and inflation expectations; and how central banks are likely to react to the shock.
This podcast was r
Global Data Watch Weekender: Pricing in conflict
The unexpected intensity of the war on Iran has rattled energy markets, threatening the global expansion. Timing and duration are as important as magnitude. Beyond the spillover of the conflict, activity is starting the year strong but labor markets continue to lag.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2026.
This communication is provided for information
Global Data Watch Weekender: What could go wrong?
Incoming data support our call for a recoupling of weak job growth to solid GDP gains, driven by a fading of business caution. Beyond this near-term tracking, we consider the types of shocks that could disrupt the outlook further out—with a focus on how to think about AI’s impact.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2026.
This communication is provide
Global Data Pod: Rare Earths
J.P. Morgan Global Research recently launched the Industry and Policy Thematics group. The aim of this group is to provide timely analysis of economy-wide industry and policy topics, including issues related to security and resilience.
In this episode we discuss the group’s inaugural report on Rare Earths, we discuss the rare earth supply chain, why rare earths are critical, common myths, and the
Global Data Watch Weekender: Start me up
The year is starting with solid global momentum. Fading caution, firming in employment, signs of a broadening in non-tech related capex are prompting a bounce in industry—underscored by this week’s strong February flash PMIs. While the SCOTUS overturning of US IEEPA tariffs lays down some guardrails, we do not see it materially altering the US war on trade in aggregate. Resilient growth combined w
Global Data Watch Weekender: Some signal, a lot of noise
There are significant elements of noise in this week’s key reports but we feel there is enough signal in these readings to increase confidence that recoupling is taking hold that lifts hiring this quarter even as consumer spending slows. US inflation data follows a similar pattern, with the underlying signal pointing to somewhat less firming than incorporated in our forecast.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasm
Global Data Watch Weekender: It’s the job market, stupid
Fading caution that leads to firming global labor markets is the central rotation to keep the expansion going—away from balance sheets last year and toward labor income–driven consumer spending this year. Job market performance will also be central to presumptive Fed Chair Warsh’s ability to either deliver cuts or be stymied by a more cautious FOMC. Given the upward pressures on inflation in 1H26,
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest global inflation developments. While fading last quarter’s slide in core CPI inflation, a phase of sticky inflation reflecting common global dynamics looks to be ending and will give way to more disparate 2026 outcomes. US inflation is expected to accelerate above 3%oya as an early-year rebound combines wit
Global Data Watch Weekender: Look inna yuh crystal ball, culture man
Strong global momentum at the start of the year is coming alongside rising commodity prices and a falling dollar. Is there a signal there? Can the EM ease even if DM rates stay on hold? Euro area inflation is coming off but growth is firming and pushing the unemployment rate to record lows. In the US, Fed chair nominee Warsh is likely to push for lower rates but could find himself in the dissent i
Global Data Watch Weekender: The shadow knows
Further year-end confirmation of a robust global consumer (outside China) supports the call that the expansion is weathering the various US policy risks. The key missing ingredient remains labor markets. The Fed will have to find its way amid strong growth and elevated inflation this year. With personnel changes coming up, leadership questions abound.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This
Global Data Watch Weekender: The more things change…
Resilience in consumer spending has been an important foundation for growth in 2025. Absent a pickup in hiring, this cannot be sustained. Is the stage set for a change? Are last year’s US policies a last-year story? Are this year’s latest US policy announcements meaningful? Is the Fed in serious jeopardy? Can you believe we’re only two weeks into the new year?
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupt
Global Data Pod Weekender: We’re back, baby!
The outlook for growth in 2026 is almost the same as for 2025. But the similarities end there, as growth in 2025 was imbalanced in a number of ways and these are unlikely to be sustained. We discuss these drivers and the needed rotation to new drivers, while also debating how to interpret the latest data and geopolitical developments. Growth is tracking strong, but labor markets are still a key co
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Fade 4Q momentum slide
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the 2026 inflation outlook and what we are learning from the latest CPI reports. Led by a sharp moderation in service price gains, global core (and headline) inflation slid to just 2.1%ar in the three months to November––a 1%-pt slide from August and its lowest in five years. This downward trajectory is once again r
Global Data Pod Weekender: Kicking the tires
Kicking the tires
After two weeks off, the Weekender picks back up with a chat about the data in recent weeks and a probing of the upside and downside risks to the 2026 outlook. Two underappreciated issues for the US are also discussed: still-to-come immigration drags and the hit to growth and inflation from health care costs.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on Dec
Global Data Pod: Steppe Forward into Oasis: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan 2026 outlook
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have captured the attention of global investors in 2026. In this episode, Anatoliy Shal, Khamza Sharifzoda, and Nicolaie Alexandru dive into the factors fueling investor interest across Central Asia this year. The conversation also explores the outlook for 2026, examining whether these driving forces will sustain the region’s momentum. Our speakers also discuss key econom
Global Data Pod Weekender: Giving thanks for data
The data of activity past has begun. This week’s payroll report is only one month and stale (Sept), but on the margin tempers some downside risk. Combined with the bulk of data coming after the Fed’s Dec meeting, a pause looks sensible. Asia views are upgraded, but possibly with a little too much verve.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on November 11, 2025.
This
Global Data Pod Weekender: The tick-tock of data watching
The balance of risks has been buffeted by resilient spending and survey data (the tick) and weak labor market data (and the tock). After a tick of solid 3Q GDP tracking and improving PMIs through October, we once again see the tock of even weaker labor market data this week from the US and Western Europe. Resilience into next year depends on how well the tick weathers the tock.
Speakers:
Bruce
Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t handle the truth!
Testing views, with continued uncertainties around the US labor market exacerbated by the government shutdown offset by better business surveys and improving activity data from Asia and Europe. Whether IEEPA tariffs are reversed may not change Trump’s mission (with numerous tools still at his disposal) but it could indicate that this Supreme Court has some limits—with a possible read-through to th
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Stuck at 3%
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic of tariff-induced inflation in the US. The global top-down message remains one of continued sticky inflation around 3%. Along with the trimming of downside growth risks, this has unsurprisingly prompted central banks to turn less dovish. While US cor
Global Data Pod Edge: Africa is building back better
Gbolahan Taiwo and Katie Marney discuss the improving outlook for African economies. Fiscal, monetary and FX reforms, rebuilt external reserves, improving terms of trade, declining inflation, and monetary easing are putting African economies on a more solid footing. Gbolahan and Katie go through takeaways for Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda.
Speakers
Katherine Marney, Emerging Ma
Global Data Pod Weekender: Views from the Upside Down
After two weeks off, the Weekender returns with an exploration of the upside and downside risks to the growth outlook and the implications of each for inflation and central bank behavior. We also discuss the outcome of the Trump Asia tour.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutio
Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t get there from here
Debate over the growth picture continues with global expenditure data through September showing resilience but the labor market a key area of weakness. Whether wealth effects will cushion the coming purchasing power squeeze in the US is unclear. But we maintain that there is a tension in risk markets pricing both resilience and a Fed that returns rates to neutral, with inflation looking sticky abs
Global Data Pod Weekender: Just how symmetric are risks, really?
A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the bullish view of risk assets poses more of an asymmetric risk distribution for the US. Fiscal policies have tilted easier this year, a theme we stressed in our year-ahead outlook, but the latest developments (France, Japan, China, US) do not move the
Global Data Pod Weekender: If data falls in the woods…
The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lift are set to fade and that the factors of drag are intensifying. These are just narratives for now, but keep the risks for a bend-but-not break global outlook skewed to the downside and the Fed in insurance easing mode.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Josep
Global Data Pod Weekender: Strong but shaky growth
The global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in global employment is striking. Strong wealth gains and a falling saving rate are supporting consumer spending for now. But labor income growth is softening broadly, and is set to take a sharp leg down next quarter in the US. Absent a bounce back in hirin
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Food and energy add to sticky core
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications for monetary policy.
This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085949-0 and https
Global Data Pod Research Rap: The growth effects of AI capex
Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean for productivity gains. Tech investment accounted for about a third of US GDP growth––and much of the expansion in domestic final sales––in 1H25. While hyperscaler capex levels are expected to stay high in coming years, current growth rates are unli
Global Data Pod Weekender: A riddle wrapped in a mystery
Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get the Fed to cut this week and signal two more by year-end, even if not the start of a more aggressive easing cycle. Beneath the surface, 4-6 quarters of weak job growth with trend-like GDP growth raises questions about the structure of the economy wh
Global Data Pod Weekender: And if not now, when?
The debate builds over the resilience of the expansion, the health of the labor market, and the durability of the consumers. At the same time, questions arise over growth without jobs and the Fed’s responsibility to it.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please
Global Data Pod Weekender: Weak payrolls, more Fed
Although this week’s business surveys sent an upbeat growth signal, the message from labor market reports in the US and elsewhere dominates risk assessments and the direction central banks will travel.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 5 September 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com
Global Data Pod Weekender: Resilience and discontent
Despite a softening US labor market and a downshift in global industry and trade, the global economy looks resilient with the US tracking above-trend growth this quarter. With tariff and immigration drags still building, do we just delay the expected pothole or fill it over? The Fed is set to cut, but strong growth, high-and-rising inflation, and threats to independence complicate the path beyond.
Global Data Pod Weekender: Additional renovations on C-street
Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed looks likely to restart its easing cycle in September. The addition of Stephen Miran to the Fed opens the door to significant reforms, some of which could threaten independence.
This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2025.
This communication is provid
Global Data Pod Research Rap: The shifting nature of China’s global inflation drag
Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the implications of currency movements for the inflation outlook. We also expand on the root-causes of China’s excess capacity and whether the government’s latest anti-
Global Data Pod Weekender: Downside risks re-emerge
First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week’s news on global industry and the US labor market affirms our call.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 1 August 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visi
Global Data Pod: EM capital flows discontented we remain
Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. EM capital flows have been languishing and shifting in composition since about 2015. Hopes that a weaker US dollar would break EM capital flows out its malaise have not been fulfilled. We explore our finding that dollar’s i
Global Data Pod Weekender: Fake it till you make it
As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate initially announced on April 2. And yet, the global expansion looks resilient through 1H25. Is the shock just not that big? Is there more fundamental support for growth? Are businesses willing to smooth the shock over time? Are easy financial conditio
Global Data Pod Weekender: Inflation, politics, and central banking
The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase &
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: June 2025
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to co
Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me count the ways
Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign outlook apparent in risk markets, we see downside risks edging higher on US trade and immigration policies. Recent US fiscal policies should provide some offset but likely less than advertised.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was
Global Data Pod Weekender: Taking stock at midyear
We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in forecasting the magnitude of this shift. We expect global GDP growth to fall well below potential, while the US tariff shock is expected to increase overall global inflation. Despite the uncertainty, we are observing a shift in market signals away from
Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here
The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very different picture if our forecast is right. Assessing risks ahead of such an anticipated slowing is difficult but this does not stop us from debating. Central banks are leaning dovish in light of the downside growth risks, with the exception of the Fed
Global Data Pod Weekender: Gauging the coming slowdown
The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the coming downshift in global growth. For its part we expect the FOMC will remain cautious this week and reduce the easing incorporated in its 2025 projections even in the face of benign inflation news.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Tariff impact delayed but not denied
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer in both the US and Euro area, pass-through from tariffs is still expected to push US core inflation higher with core PCE rising to 3.4% on a 4q/4q basis. At the same time, the Euro area’s path to 2% co
Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time of front-loading
The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is transitory front-loading set to reverse in 2H25 is central to the outlook. The data show resilience, notably in job growth, but cracks are growing in global industry. We maintain a baseline of no recession while also seeing risks elevated at 40%.
Spe
Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast on the off-ramp
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain that the risks are skewed toward higher, not lower, tariffs. However, the trajectory of growth is complicated by prior front-loading and there is debate about how to track resilience. Weakness could presage recession, muddle-through, or rebound. The lat
Global Data Pod Weekender: A whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on
Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our forecast of continued resilience in April activity and May surveys, alongside a rebound in May sentiment readings from depressed levels. Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the tr
Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain? No way
The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its draconian trade war policies, culminating this week in a substantial markdown in the tariff on China. We no longer see a US recession as likely but still see growth being weak over the rest of the year and also note downside risks if the trade war r
Global Data Pod Weekender: Threat assessment
The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loading that will impart a drag going forward, 2) material trade war drags that will further damp activity, and 3) sentiment that is falling sharply and risks becoming a drag on its own. Trade war news this week does not move the needle in our view. The Fe
Global Data Pod Weekender: Transitioning
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the activity data continues to show resilience, an encouraging development that will help weather the coming US policy storm. Whether it is enough to support the transition to the trade war is the central question. Regardless, even absent recession, the risk of an extended period of soft growth should also be a concern. One factor underlying this risk is a l
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US and the rest of the world. After a broad-based upside surprise in January, core inflation has shown a similar widespread moderation. The US CPI data show limited impact from tariffs through March, but we look for core inflation to jump to a 6%ar this q
Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain, long-term stain
The hard data continue to highlight strength but it increasingly looks like we are reaching peak front-loading. The survey data are falling faster and point to a material deceleration. Whether this turns to recession will depend on the degree to which the US backpedals its war on trade. Beyond any near-term outcome, the risk is that the dismantling of the global trading order will do permanent dam
Global Data Pod Research Rap: US-China: cost advantage and mutual dependence
China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on the US market and the scope for US-China trade to decouple as a result. With recent tariff hikes on China going well beyond our expectations of a hike to 60% ,we also discuss our latest assessment of the associated drags on China’s growth and what pol
Global Data Pod Weekender: Turn of the screw
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the goods sector activity boomed through 1Q but the signal to take is far less clear, particularly as sentiment looks to be souring. We maintain our recession call but also see the uniqueness of the event and note that timing is uncertain in an otherwise resilient expansion. Central banks turn a bit more cautious.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
Thi
Global Data Pod Weekender: When elephants fight
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us. A 10% universal tax is still a very large shock (7.5x the 2018-19 trade war) and the huge 145% tax (and rising) on China is prohibitive. You cannot stop trade between the world’s two largest economies and not expect pain everywhere. We maint
Global Data Pod Weekender: That’s gonna leave a mark
A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds to 60%. Along with the magnitude, the design of US tariff policies is hard to make sense of. Tit-for-tat retaliatory policies are underway. Beyond the cyclical damage, the long-term harm to the US is a much larger concern.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Global Data Pod Weekender: Debating the R word
Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive US policies hit business and household sentiment. With the latest tariff increases set to push US core inflation above 4%ar next quarter, a household sector with a healthy balance will need to show a willingness to lower its saving rate to cushion thi
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are shaping our inflation views. Global goods prices are firming even before tariffs were put in place, with pressures broadening outside the US. As more tariffs are imposed, this puts the onus on still-sticky services inflation to do much of the heavy lif
Global Data Pod Weekender: Front-loading
Risks to the global expansion are elevated in the face of a broadening trade war, but incoming news highlights a still underlying resilient expansion. The trade drag weighing down 1Q25 US growth is reflecting a boost elsewhere, particularly in Asia where the latest news points to a surge in trade activity in advance of prospective tariffs.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was
