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Odds on Open

Odds on Open

Ethan Kho 60 Episodes Oct 15, 2026

Conversations with leading thinkers on trading and investing. Hosted by Ethan Kho. Produced by Patrick Kho.

Episodes

Hedge Fund Manager Joseph Walsh: Always Play Weaker Players
Hedge Fund Manager Joseph Walsh: Always Play Weaker Players Oct 15, 2026 01:28:38 Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html On this episode of Odds on Open, hedge fund manager Joe Walsh joins Ethan Kho to break down how probabilistic decision-making and bankroll management from high-stakes poker translate into institutional equity outperformance. Walsh outlines his framework for game selection across liquid markets, detailing why he deliberately avoids the
Ex-Goldman MD: "Credit Markets Move in Step Functions"
Ex-Goldman MD: "Credit Markets Move in Step Functions" Oct 8, 2026 01:22:18 Geoffrey Williams spent more than a decade at Goldman Sachs, where he traded structured products through the 2008 financial crisis and later co-ran the CMBS trading business. In this episode of Odds on Open, he takes Ethan Kho inside the Goldman mortgage desk as Bear Stearns and Lehman collapsed. He explains how banks sold tens of billions of super senior protection on ABS CDOs for 10 basis points
Ex-Lehman Trader: AI Won't Give You Edge
Ex-Lehman Trader: AI Won't Give You Edge Oct 1, 2026 00:56:22 Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html In this episode of Odds on Open, Alpaca Co-Founder and CEO Yoshi Yokokawa breaks down the changing microstructure of systematic trading, the democratization of quantitative R&D, and why AI agents alone will never grant you a defensible market edge. As LLMs compress strategy iteration and backtesting feedback loops, the traditional
Retail Trader vs. Hedge Fund Manager: Where Is the Real Alpha?
Retail Trader vs. Hedge Fund Manager: Where Is the Real Alpha? Sep 24, 2026 01:28:18 Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html Chris Camillo and Tom Costello go head-to-head on Odds on Open's first every debate episode. They answer a question every trader eventually confronts: who is actually better positioned to take risk — a concentrated retail investor with no LPs, mandates, or career risk, or an institutional hedge fund manager with a two-and-twenty pr
Ex-IMC Semiconductors Quant: AI Is Good Enough to Beat the S&P 500
Ex-IMC Semiconductors Quant: AI Is Good Enough to Beat the S&P 500 Sep 17, 2026 01:14:10 Lihong Wang spent his career as a discretionary options trader at IMC, one of the world's largest market makers, trading semiconductor volatility on names like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. In this episode, he breaks down how a prop trading desk actually makes money: reading order flow to identify counterparties, trading against structured product hedging flows from Asian banks, warehousing benig
Hedge Fund Manager Alix Pasquet: How Small Funds Can Outsmart Multi-Managers
Hedge Fund Manager Alix Pasquet: How Small Funds Can Outsmart Multi-Managers Sep 11, 2026 01:32:52 Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html Alix Pasquet, hedge fund manager and Managing Partner at Prime Macaya Capital, breaks down how fundamental investors build durable edge in modern markets. In this episode, Alix explains the three sources of competitive advantage in the investment business — analytical, informational, and behavioral — and why exploiting group behavior b
⁠Greed Makes Markets: Market Making From First Principles With an HFT Quant
⁠Greed Makes Markets: Market Making From First Principles With an HFT Quant Sep 3, 2026 00:44:57 How does market making actually work? In this lecture, former high-frequency trader Annanay Kapila (Flow Traders, Tower Research Capital; founder & CEO of QFEX) breaks down the mechanics of market making from first principles. He maps the systematic trading landscape—prop trading vs hedge funds, HFT vs mid-frequency—and explains why market making sits in the high-Sharpe, proprietary quadrant.
22-Year-Old Hedge Fund Manager: “Hedge funds are the least sexy business in the world”
22-Year-Old Hedge Fund Manager: “Hedge funds are the least sexy business in the world” Aug 27, 2026 01:05:26 Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html Noah Kann is 22, running his third firm, and managing capital raised from some of the wealthiest families in America. On this episode of Odds on Open, Ethan Kho sits down with the co-CEO of Venari Asset Management to unpack what a 22-year-old hedge fund manager knows that 20-year Wall Street veterans miss: why running a hedge fund is t
He Started a Quant Fund in His Dorm. Now He's Building the Brokerage for Everything.
He Started a Quant Fund in His Dorm. Now He's Building the Brokerage for Everything. Aug 21, 2026 01:13:30 Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html Lucas Schuermann started a market-neutral quant fund in his Columbia dorm room, trading stat arb across FX and early crypto markets, before dropping out to scale it into Q Capital. In this episode of Odds on Open, he breaks down how he electronified Genesis Trading's OTC desk as VP of Engineering — taking a phone-and-Telegram tradi
Inside the Billionaire-Backed Prediction Markets Hedge Fund
Inside the Billionaire-Backed Prediction Markets Hedge Fund Aug 13, 2026 01:16:45 Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.htmlCamilo Saravia is the founder of BlueWalker Capital, a systematic hedge fund trading prediction markets — and possibly the only fund dedicated exclusively to the asset class. Backed by Daniel Howard, son of Brevan Howard co-founder Alan Howard, Camilo breaks down how the fund prints alpha across taker and maker strategies, reflexive vs.
World's #1 Oil Hedge Fund Manager: How I Made 200% While Everyone Lost 60%
World's #1 Oil Hedge Fund Manager: How I Made 200% While Everyone Lost 60% Aug 6, 2026 01:14:48 Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.htmlJosh Young (Bison Capital) on Energy Alpha, Deep Value, and Activism in Small-Cap Oil & Gas: Josh Young runs a concentrated, long-only public equities energy fund that's up 200% since inception while the energy sector is down 60% — a spread he calls a statistical impossibility. In this episode, Josh breaks down the process behin
The Strategy Behind Asia’s $6 Billion Quant Fund: Quantedge
The Strategy Behind Asia’s $6 Billion Quant Fund: Quantedge Jul 30, 2026 01:22:38 Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/Suhaimi Zainul-Abidi is the CEO of Quantedge, the Singapore-based systematic hedge fund that has compounded at roughly 20% net annualized returns for 20 years — growing from $3 million raised from friends and family to over $6 billion in AUM, with close to $5 billion of that from investment gains rather than fundraising. In this episode of Odds on Open

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