Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data
Lucas and Luna sit down each day with the latest releases of GDP, CPI, and PMI data, reading the macro tea leaves for what they actually mean for markets, policy, and business decisions. In each episode, Lucas traces a specific indicator—say, the core PCE deflator or the ISM manufacturing index—while Luna challenges the consensus interpretation, pushing toward the second-order effects that get lost in the headline numbers. They never just report the data; they argue about its signal-to-noise ratio, its revisions history, and its predictive track record. This is a show for the analyst, the portfolio manager, the economist, or the business leader who needs to interpret economic releases faster and more skeptically than the press releases. Lucas and Luna hold each other accountable to the numbers, calling out the difference between statistical noise and genuine turning points. Each episode closes with one unresolved tension: a data point that defies easy narrative, a lagging indicator that might be about to flip, or a policy response that could scramble the forecast.
Episodes
Why Wholesale Inflation Surged 1.1 Percent in May 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 wholesale inflation report that showed a 1.1 percent monthly jump, far above expectations. They explore how surging energy costs, driven by the Iran conflict, are feeding through to producer prices and what this means for future consumer inflation. The hosts connect yesterday's PPI data to the broader economi
What Wholesale Inflation Means for Your Portfolio
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 Producer Price Index report—wholesale prices surged 1.1% month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a spike in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. They discuss why PPI matters as a leading indicator for consumer inflation, how the 10-year breakeven rate is diverging from PPI, and what this mean
How the 10-Year Breakeven Rate Signals Slowing Inflation
On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has fallen to 2.29 percent from 2.34 percent in just a few days. They explore what this market-based measure says about investor expectations versus the official CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation. The hosts discuss how breakeven rates reflect real-time sentiment, why the
How Higher Energy Prices Are Reshaping Inflation Expectations
Lucas and Luna examine the latest CPI print showing 4.2% annual inflation in May 2026 — the highest in three years — and dig into what's really driving it: an energy-price surge connected to global supply shocks and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023. They break down the gap between headline and core CPI, explain why breakeven inflation rates matter now more than ever, and explore what higher en
Why Jobless Claims Are Rising Despite a Growing Economy
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling disconnect: the economy is growing, unemployment is low, yet initial jobless claims have jumped to 225,000 as of late May 2026—up from 212,000 the week before. They explore what's driving the increase, from sector-level layoffs to seasonal adjustment quirks, and what it might signal about the labor market's hea
Why Consumer Sentiment Is Collapsing Despite a Growing Economy
Episode 43 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling disconnect: GDP is growing, unemployment is low, yet the New York Fed's latest survey shows household financial worries hitting their highest level since July 2022. They unpack why the sentiment data matters more than GDP for the real economy, and what it signals for consumer spending and the Fed's next move. Plus,
How Business Inventories Are Signaling a Slowdown
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest business inventories data, which hit $2.71 trillion in March 2026. They explain why inventories rising faster than sales is historically a leading recession signal, especially with capacity utilisation stuck at 76.1 percent. Using the recent JOLTS job openings surge and the yield curve steepening as context, th
How Household Finances Are Souring Despite GDP Growth
GDP is growing at 1.6 percent annualised, the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent, and payrolls keep rising. So why did the New York Fed's latest survey show household financial worries hitting their highest level since July 2022? Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between top-line macro data and what families are actually feeling. They look at the gap between nominal GDP growth and real wage gai
Why Household Inflation Expectations Matter More Than CPI Now
Episode 40 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo digs into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. Lucas and Luna explain why inflation expectations among consumers now diverge from official CPI data, and why that gap matters for the Fed's next move. They connect the survey to real GDP growth
How Household Inflation Expectations Signal a Shift in Consumer Behavior
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. They explore how this shift in consumer sentiment is beginning to affect spending patterns, savings rates, and even the Federal Reserve's policy path. With the May jobs report d
Why the Nasdaq Is Down Five Percent While GDP Is Growing
The S&P 500 is at 7,384 and the Nasdaq has dropped over five percent in five days, yet real GDP grew at 1.6 percent annualized in Q1 2026 and the unemployment rate is a low 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpick this apparent contradiction by looking at the composition of GDP growth, the surge in job openings to 7.6 million, and what the bond market is pricing in via the ten-year yield at 4.54 percent
What the Yield Curve Steepening Means for 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprising steepening of the yield curve in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.54 percent and the two-year at 3.62 percent, the spread has widened past 90 basis points after being inverted for over two years. What does this signal about growth expectations, Fed policy, and the risk of a recession? The h
Capacity Utilisation and the Hidden Slack in the Economy
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—an often-overlooked metric that reveals how much industrial slack the economy really has. With the latest reading stuck at 76.1 percent, well below the long-run average of 80 percent, the hosts explain why factories aren't running hot despite decent GDP growth. They connect this to the tepid inflation
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening Again in 2026
Lucas and Luna dig into the striking data showing the yield curve is steepening—the 10-year Treasury hit 4.54 percent and the 30-year touched 5.00 percent—while short-term rates stay elevated. They explore whether this signals the economy is healing, or if it reflects war-risk premiums and tariff uncertainty. Using the latest CPI, jobs, and GDP data from June 2026, they unpack what the curve's sha
Why Business Inventories Are a Leading Recession Signal
Episode 34 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into total business inventories—the $2.71 trillion number that often flashes warning before a downturn. Lucas and Luna break down why inventories rose 0.9% in March 2026 even as consumer spending softens, what the inventory-to-sales ratio is signaling, and how this metric differs from GDP or jobs data. They reference the May jobs report preview
Long-Term Unemployment Is Spiking What It Means
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data showing long-term unemployment is surging in the U.S., even as headline job numbers look solid. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3% and initial jobless claims rising to 225,000, they explore the hidden drag on the economy, the Fed's frustration, and why this structural shift matters more than monthly payrolls. They connect the dots to capacity utilizati
Why Capacity Utilisation Is Stuck Below 77 Percent
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a number that keeps catching Lucas's eye: capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent. Even as real GDP growth rebounded to 1.6 percent annualised and job openings surged to 7.6 million, factories are still running well below the 78-to-80 percent range that historically signals pricing power and investment. They trace the histor
Why Industrial Production Is Beating GDP This Cycle
GDP is growing at just 1.6 percent annualized, but industrial production has jumped 0.7 percent in a single month. Lucas and Luna unpack why factories, refineries, and utilities are outperforming the broader economy — and what that means for the Fed, inflation, and your portfolio. They look at capacity utilization hitting 76.1 percent, the inventory rebuild that's driving output, and why this dive
How the GDP Deflator Reveals Hidden Inflation Pressures
In episode 30 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the GDP deflator—a measure of economy-wide inflation that often gets overshadowed by CPI and PCE. They explain why the deflator can signal broadening price pressures before they show up in consumer surveys, and how the current gap between real and nominal GDP growth hints at underlying inflation that Fed policy alone may st
Why the GDP Deflator Is the Inflation Signal You Are Missing
Lucas and Luna dive into the GDP deflator, a broad measure of inflation that the Fed monitors closely but most people overlook. With nominal GDP at $31.8 trillion and real GDP growth at just 1.6%, they explain how the deflator captures price changes across the entire economy, including investment goods and government spending that CPI misses. They contrast it with the PCE price index, showing why
How Job Openings Surged to 7.6 Million in April 2026
Lucas and Luna break down the surprise jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. They explore why this number jumped despite a flat unemployment rate and what it means for the Fed's interest rate path. The conversation connects JOLTS data to wage growth and inflation, using the latest CPI and average hourly earnings figures. Lucas argues that the job marke
How JOLTS Surprise Reshapes the Fed Rate Outlook
Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years, complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data, unpacking why a hot labor market doesn't necessarily mean rate hikes ahead. They connect the dots to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE at 3.3% — and explore how geopolitical shocks like the Iran war are distorting t
What Producer Prices Signal About Fed Policy Better Than CPI
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why producer prices—specifically the producer price index—may be a more accurate leading indicator of Fed policy than the consumer price index. Using fresh data from June 2026, they explain how rising input costs at the factory level are filtering through to core inflation, even as CPI shows a slight cooldown. Lucas tra
How Producer Prices Signal Fed Policy Better Than CPI
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why producer price index (PPI) data may offer a timelier signal of inflationary pressure than the consumer-focused CPI. With core PCE running at 3.3% annually and energy inflation stubbornly persistent due to the Iran conflict, the hosts examine how input costs for manufacturers—such as energy, raw materials, and logistics
Why Real vs Nominal GDP Divergence Matters Now
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the growing gap between nominal and real GDP growth. As of Q1 2026, nominal GDP hit $31.82 trillion while real GDP (chained 2017 dollars) reached $24.15 trillion. That $7.67 trillion spread reflects nearly four years of cumulative inflation. The hosts explain why nominal GDP captures total spending power in the economy—in
Why Nominal GDP Growth Matters for Your Portfolio
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the gap between nominal and real GDP growth, using the latest data (Q1 2026 nominal GDP at $31.82 trillion, real at $24.15 trillion) to explain why inflation-adjusted figures can paint a deceptive picture. They discuss how nominal growth signals corporate revenue potential, while real growth reveals actual economic expansion. With core PCE inflation stuck at
How the Iran War Is Distorting Inflation Data
On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down how the ongoing Iran war is creating a distortion in core inflation readings. With the Fed's preferred PCE gauge showing core inflation at 3.3% annually, but energy prices adding $450 to the average household's annual costs, they examine whether stripping out energy prices still makes sense when the shock is prolonged.
How the Jobs-Openings Puzzle Complicates the Fed Rate Outlook
This episode digs into the JOLTS data released on May 30, 2026, which shows job openings falling to 6.866 million, the lowest since early 2021. Lucas and Luna explore what this decline means for the Fed's rate path—especially with core inflation still running at 3.3 percent and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent. They focus on the puzzle of falling openings without a spike in layoffs, th
Wage Growth Isnt Keeping Pace with Core Inflation
Lucas and Luna dive into the April 2026 inflation and wage data, showing that while average hourly earnings rose to $37.40, core CPI climbed to 335.4 and core PCE hit a 3.3% annual rate. They explain why real wage growth has turned negative for most workers, how the Iran war energy shock is compounding the squeeze, and what this means for consumer spending and Fed policy. A data-driven look at the
How Energy Inflation Is Distorting the Core CPI Picture
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why energy inflation is skewing the way we read core CPI and the Fed's preferred PCE gauge. With the Iran war pushing household energy costs up by nearly $450 annually, the hosts examine how stripping out food and energy might be masking persistent price pressures in other sectors. They explore the gap between core CPI
How Inventory Cycles Are Reshaping GDP in 2026
Business inventories have surged to $2.7 trillion, adding a volatile twist to GDP growth. Lucas and Luna break down how inventory accumulation boosted first-quarter growth to 1.6 percent annualized, why the build-up may reverse in coming quarters, and what the 76.1 percent capacity utilisation rate tells us about whether companies are producing ahead of demand or sitting on unsold goods. Drawing o
What Durable Goods Orders Tell Us About the Economy
Lucas and Luna dive into the durable goods orders report, which dropped a surprise 6.2% in April. But they explain why the headline number is misleading—transportation orders can swing wildly. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, actually rose 0.4%. They connect this to the Fed's dilemma: sticky services inflation versus cooling goods demand. With real GDP growth at 1.6% and
Core PCE vs CPI Which Inflation Number Matters More
Lucas and Luna break down the difference between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — and why the Fed prioritises Core PCE. With CPI at 332.4 and Core PCE at 129.3, they explain how each index is constructed, why they diverge, and what that means for the rate path ahead. Plus: a quick look at how breakeven inflation expectations have edged down to 2.39%,
How Capacity Utilisation Leads GDP in Predicting the Cycle
Lucas and Luna explore why capacity utilisation, currently at 76.1 percent, may be a more reliable leading indicator of economic turning points than GDP itself. They discuss the latest industrial production data, the gap between current utilisation and the long-run average, and what this means for inflation and Fed policy in mid-2026. Drawing on historical patterns, including the 2008 financial cr
Capacity Utilisation Tells a Different Story Than GDP
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilisation — the often-overlooked metric that reveals whether the economy is running hot or has room to grow. With the latest data showing capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent in April 2026, up from 75.67 in March, Lucas explains why this matters more than the headline GDP number. They explore how capacity cons
Capacity Utilisation Is the Signal to Watch in 2026
Lucas and Luna break down why capacity utilisation — currently at 76.1 percent — is a more reliable forward-looking indicator than GDP or unemployment for gauging inflationary pressure and the next Fed move. Using data from May 2026, they explain how factories running at 76 percent capacity leave room for output without spiking prices, and why a reading above 80 percent has historically preceded r
How Inventory Builds Are Reshaping GDP Growth in 2026
Lucas and Luna dig into a quietly powerful economic indicator: inventory investment. With real GDP growth at 2.0 percent and business inventories rising to $2.71 trillion, they explore how warehouse shelves are contributing to output—and whether the current build is a sign of confidence or a prelude to a correction. They reference the latest Q1 2026 data, the industrial production index at 102.5,
What the Yield Curve Is Saying About Recession Risk in 2026
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — historically a screaming recession signal. But with the S&P 500 near 7,500 and unemployment at 4.3 percent, Lucas and Luna dig into why this time may actually be different. They break down the 10-year minus 2-year spread, the role of term premium, and what the curve's recent flattening tells us about Fed policy and the Iran-war inflation backd
Industrial Production Is Quietly Outperforming the Services Slowdown
While services inflation and consumer sentiment dominate the headlines, industrial production has posted a solid gain in April. Lucas and Luna unpack the latest data: capacity utilisation ticked above 76 percent for the first time in months, and the industrial production index hit 102.5, up from 101.81. They explore what this divergence means for the Fed's next move, whether manufacturing is decou
Why Real GDP Growth Matters More Than Headline Numbers
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest GDP data, breaking down why real GDP growth matters more than the headline nominal figure. With nominal GDP at $31.86 trillion but real growth at just 2% annualized, they explore what this means for wages, productivity, and the Fed's next move. They also examine the divergence between the stock market's rally and the consumer sentiment record low, using the S&P 5
Job Openings Are Falling Without a Spike in Unemployment
Episode 8 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo: Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data from March 2026, which shows job openings fell to 6.866 million, down from 6.922 million. They explore why this decline hasn't triggered a rise in the unemployment rate — which held steady at 4.3 percent — and what the Beveridge Curve tells us about the labor market's new normal. The hosts draw on the Fede
Consumer Sentiment Record Low What the Numbers Really Mean
Consumer sentiment has hit a record low, even as the stock market rallies. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between how Americans feel about the economy and what the hard data says. They examine the University of Michigan sentiment survey's all-time low, the role of inflation expectations, and why the jobs market and GDP growth tell a different story. Using real-time data from May 2026, they
Why Warsh Will Reshape Fed Policy on Iran War Inflation
As Kevin Warsh is sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on May 22, 2026, the central bank faces a new inflation threat from the Iran war. Lucas and Luna examine Warsh's hawkish academic record, his 2008 crisis experience, and how today's 4.56 percent ten-year Treasury yield and rising CPI of 332.4 constrain his room for error. They explore whether Warsh will break from the Powell playbook by preemptiv
The AI Economy Is Rewriting the American Dream for Blue-Collar Workers
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore how the AI economy is reshaping the American Dream, with a surprising twist for blue-collar workers. Drawing on recent data and a CNBC headline from May 19, 2026, they discuss how automation and AI are not just displacing jobs but also creating new opportunities in manufacturing, logistics, and skilled trades. They examine
The PMI Puzzle What Manufacturing Is Telling the Fed
In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.2, a contraction signal that contradicts strong jobs and GDP data. They dig into the divergence between hard and soft data, what it means for Fed policy under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, and why markets are pricing in a July rate hike despite a manufacturing slowdown. Using specific data points from May 2026, th
Bond Vigilantes Are Already Pushing Rates Higher
The bond vigilantes are back and they are already pushing long-term Treasury yields higher even before the Fed meets in July. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down exactly how the 10-year and 30-year yields have climbed over the past week, and why market-based breakeven inflation rates are actually falling. That decoupling — higher nominal yields but lower inflation expectations — means the v
Bond Vigilantes Are Back and the Fed Must Listen
Lucas and Luna unpack the return of bond vigilantes as the 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.57% and the market prices in a July rate hike. With Kevin Warsh set to be sworn in as Fed chair, they explore how bond market discipline is forcing the Fed's hand, drawing on Ed Yardeni's warning and the latest CPI, PCE, and jobless claims data. They discuss what this means for inflation expectations, the 10-y
Inflation Is Back and the Fed Is Preparing to Hike
On the debut episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna tackle the biggest macro story of May 2026: inflation is accelerating again, and the bond market is forcing the Federal Reserve to reverse course. With the CPI hitting 332.4 and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate sitting at 2.48%, traders now see the next Fed move as a hike — not a cut. Lucas breaks down what's driving the
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