Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data
Lucas and Luna sit down each day with the latest releases of GDP, CPI, and PMI data, reading the macro tea leaves for what they actually mean for markets, policy, and business decisions. In each episode, Lucas traces a specific indicator—say, the core PCE deflator or the ISM manufacturing index—while Luna challenges the consensus interpretation, pushing toward the second-order effects that get lost in the headline numbers. They never just report the data; they argue about its signal-to-noise ratio, its revisions history, and its predictive track record. This is a show for the analyst, the portfolio manager, the economist, or the business leader who needs to interpret economic releases faster and more skeptically than the press releases. Lucas and Luna hold each other accountable to the numbers, calling out the difference between statistical noise and genuine turning points. Each episode closes with one unresolved tension: a data point that defies easy narrative, a lagging indicator that might be about to flip, or a policy response that could scramble the forecast.
Episodes
Why Job Seekers Are Giving Up in 2026
Episode 92 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo examines the labor force participation rate, which has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years outside of Covid. Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 jobs report: payrolls grew by just 57,000, and the participation rate dropped to 62.2%. They discuss why workers are leaving the job market—structural shifts like early retirement, caregiving, and discou
What the Labor Force Participation Drop Really Means
Episode 91 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo: Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising drop in labor force participation—now at its lowest outside of the Covid era. They explore what's behind the decline: aging demographics, discouraged workers, and structural shifts in the job market. Using fresh data from the June 2026 jobs report, including the 57,000 payrolls gain and the 4.2% unemployment rat
The Labor Force Dropout Problem No One Is Talking About
The labor force participation rate just fell to its lowest level outside the Covid era, even as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into why millions of Americans have stopped looking for work entirely, what that means for GDP growth and wage pressure, and how the Fed reads a shrinking labor force differently than a rising jobless rate. They break down the participatio
The Hidden Risk of Falling Labor Force Participation
Lucas and Luna dig into a startling new data point: the labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest in 50 years outside of the COVID era. They explore what's driving workers to drop out—demographics, discouraged job seekers, and structural shifts—and why this matters more than the headline unemployment rate. With nonfarm payrolls adding just 57,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rat
What the ADP Miss Tells Us About the Jobs Market in Mid-2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest ADP private payrolls number for June 2026 — 98,000 jobs added, well below the consensus estimate of 130,000. They explore what this miss signals about the broader labor market, especially against a backdrop of steady jobless claims around 215,000 and a 4.3% unemployment rate. The conversation touches on whether
What Private Payrolls Told Us About the Jobs Market in June 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into the latest ADP private payrolls report for June 2026, which came in well below expectations at just 98,000 new jobs. They contrast this with the still-low initial jobless claims of 215,000 and a steady unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. The conversation explores whether the labor market is genuinely softening or just sen
Why Capacity Utilization Signals a Slowdown Before GDP Does
Lucas and Luna dig into a frequently overlooked economic indicator: capacity utilization. With the latest reading at 76.2%, they explain why this number matters more now than the headline GDP growth of 2.1%. They trace how capacity utilization has historically turned before recessions, compare current levels to the pre-pandemic peak, and discuss what the gap between industrial production and capac
Why the Yield Curve Steepening Matters for Growth in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals for economic growth as of July 2026. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.42% and the 2-year at 4.19%, the spread has widened significantly. They explore why this is happening—stronger growth expectations, sticky core inflation at 3.4%, and the Fed's cautious stan
Why the Yield Curve Steepening Matters for Growth in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals about the economy's trajectory. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.41% and the 2-year at 3.73%, the spread has widened to 68 basis points—a level not seen in over a year. Is this a bullish signal for growth, or a warning that inflation expectations are rising fa
What the Rising 10-Year Breakeven Rate Tells Us Now
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has edged up to 2.22 percent as of late June 2026, even as core PCE hits 3.4 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: why the bond market's implied inflation expectation remains below the Fed's target despite stubbornly high core readings. They examine what breakevens actually measure — the difference between nominal and inflation-protect
What the Yield Curve Steepening Is Telling Us About Growth
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals for the economy as of late June 2026. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.37% and the gap between 10-year and 2-year yields widening to 69 basis points, they unpack what this inversion-unto-steepening pattern historically means for GDP growth, Fed policy, and inflation. They reference the latest c
How Jobless Claims Signal a Cooling Labor Market in 2026
With initial jobless claims dropping to 215,000 in late June 2026, Lucas and Luna analyze what this key weekly indicator really says about the health of the labor market. They contrast the low claims with rising unemployment insurance rolls and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate, exploring the concept of 'labor market rotation' where workers are still finding jobs but with longer gaps between them. T
Why the Bond Market Is Pricing Lower Inflation Than CPI Shows
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: the latest CPI print shows headline inflation at 334.0, up 0.5 percent month over month, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has actually ticked down to 2.20 percent. They explore what bond investors see that the CPI basket might be missing — from shelter cost lags to the disinflationary weight of global
Core Inflation Hits 3.4 Percent What the Fed Sees
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, hit 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dig into why this number matters more than CPI, how it contradicts other inflation signals like the 10-year breakeven rate (now at 2.20%), and what it means for the interest rate outlook. They discuss the components driving the rise — particularly services inflation — and whether th
Why the PCE and CPI Gap Is Widening Again in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between the PCE price index and CPI. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023 — they explore why the Fed’s preferred gauge is running hotter than CPI, what components are driving the gap, and what it means for monetary policy. They break down the role of healthcare co
What the PPI and CPI Spread Tells Us Now
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing gap between the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index—and what that divergence signals about corporate margins, inflation pass-through, and the Federal Reserve's next move. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May 2026—the highest since October 2023—they unpack whether producers are absorbing costs or passing them along, and why the PPI-CP
What the PCE and CPI Spread Reveals About Inflation
Lucas and Luna drill into the widening gap between the PCE and CPI inflation measures. On June 25, 2026, core PCE hit 3.4 percent—its highest since October 2023—while CPI is running cooler. They explain why the divergence matters for Fed policy, bond markets, and your portfolio, and walk through how consumers and businesses are experiencing inflation differently depending on which index you use. A
Why Capacity Utilization Matters More in 2026
Lucas and Luna dive into the latest capacity utilization data — 76.2% in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13% — and explain why this often-overlooked metric is sending a nuanced signal about the economy. They contrast it with industrial production growth, rising job openings, and sticky core inflation to show how capacity constraints might be building beneath a seemingly steady expansion. With factor
Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring Higher Core Inflation
On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine a puzzling divergence: core inflation hit 3.4% in May 2026, its highest since October 2023, yet long-term bond yields have fallen. The hosts walk through the bond math, explaining why the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 13 basis points this week despite hot inflation data. They connect the dots to the 10-year breakeven infl
What the JOLTS Rebound Tells Us About the Labor Market
Lucas and Luna unpack the surprising JOLTS data from April 2026: job openings jumped to 7.6 million from 6.9 million, a 10.6 percent increase in one month. They explore what this surge means for the broader economic picture, including whether it signals genuine labor demand or noise from sectoral shifts. With layoffs still elevated in manufacturing and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent,
What the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Is Signaling Now
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.21 percent as of June 23, 2026. They explain what breakeven inflation actually measures — the difference between nominal and inflation-protected Treasury yields — and why the recent decline matters for the Fed, bond markets, and your portfolio. They compare the
Why Factory Job Cuts Are Surging Despite a Growing Economy
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the striking disconnect between strong headline GDP growth and a surge in factory job cuts that, according to S&P, approached levels not seen since the financial crisis and the pandemic. With the unemployment rate flat at 4.3% and JOLTS job openings rising to 7.6 million, why are manufacturing layoffs spiking? The hosts
Why Factory Job Cuts Are Spiking Despite a Growing Economy
Factory job cuts in June 2026 are nearing levels not seen since the financial crisis and the Covid pandemic, according to S&P. Lucas and Luna dig into why manufacturing is struggling even as the broader economy grows at a 1.6 percent annualized rate. They examine the divergence between industrial production, which is still rising modestly, and capacity utilization at 76.2 percent, which is below p
Why the Job Market Is Sending Mixed Signals in 2026
Lucas and Luna unpack the puzzling divergence between rising job openings and steady unemployment in mid-2026. With JOLTS data showing a surge to 7.6 million openings but the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3 percent, they drill into what's really happening beneath the surface. Drawing on the latest figures from May 2026 and anecdotes from states like Nevada, they explore how the labor market is reba
Why Business Inventories Are Rising Faster Than GDP in 2026
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest business inventories data, which climbed to $2.73 trillion in April 2026. They explain why inventory build-ups can signal both economic strength and impending correction, using the recent GDP-inventory divergence as a case study. With real GDP growth at just 1.6 percent annualized, the hosts discuss whether companies are overstocking or preparing for sustained de
What Average Hourly Earnings Tell Us About the Labor Market
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest average hourly earnings data and what it really means for workers and the broader economy. With private-sector earnings at $37.50 an hour in May 2026, they explore why wage growth hasn't kept pace with inflation, how the gap affects consumer spending, and what it signals for future Fed policy. They also tie in
Why Core PCE Is the Inflation Number the Fed Watches Most
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into why the Federal Reserve focuses on the core PCE price index over the more widely reported CPI. They explain the methodological differences, discuss the latest data showing core PCE at 129.6 (up from 129.32), and explore what that means for the interest rate outlook in mid-2026. The conversation also touches on how the Fed's preferred metric gives a clearer
How Business Inventories Signal GDP Growth in 2026
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the latest business inventories data and what it tells us about the direction of GDP. With total business inventories rising to $2.73 trillion in April 2026, they explore how inventory accumulation has been a key driver of recent GDP growth, even as consumer spending shows signs of slowing. They discuss the implications for the broader economy, including p
Why the PCE Price Index Matters More Than CPI
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why the PCE price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — is diverging from CPI in 2026. With PCE at 130.9 and core PCE at 129.6 in April, the hosts explain how the composition and weighting differences create a more nuanced inflation picture. They also discuss what the 10-year breakeven rate's drop to 2.25 percen
What Business Inventories Tell Us About the GDP Trajectory
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into a fresh angle on economic indicators: the role of business inventories in shaping GDP growth. With new data showing total business inventories reaching $2.73 trillion as of April 2026, and real GDP growth slowing to 1.6 percent, the hosts explore how inventory builds and draws can mask underlying economic momentum. They discuss why business inventories are
What the GDP-CPI Gap Really Means for Investors
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack a subtle but powerful signal in today's macro data: the widening gap between nominal GDP growth and the CPI. Nominal GDP is running at about 5.0% annualized in early 2026, while CPI inflation has moderated to around 2.5%. That spread — roughly 2.5 percentage points — represents real economic growth, but the composition matt
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening in 2026
In this June 2026 episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the Treasury yield curve is steepening even as the Fed holds rates steady. With the 2-year at 3.66%, the 10-year at 4.45%, and the 30-year at 4.90%, the spread between short and long-term bonds is the widest in years. They explore what this signals about growth expectations, inflation, and the new Fed chair's first meeting. Plus, a look at how t
What Business Inventories Say About GDP Trajectory
In episode 60 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into a key but often overlooked data point: total business inventories. With inventories hitting over $2.7 trillion in April 2026, they explain how stockpiling signals business confidence and future GDP revisions. Drawing on the latest data, Lucas shows how the inventory-to-sales ratio has crept up from pre-pandemic levels, hin
How JOLTS Data Is Confusing the Job Market Picture
Lucas and Luna dive into the latest JOLTS data from April 2026, which showed a surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million—even as hiring remained flat and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3 percent. They explore what this divergence means for the Fed, wage growth, and whether the labor market is tightening or loosening. Lucas explains why the ratio of openings to unemployed workers matters mo
Capacity Utilization vs Consumer Spending Divergence in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a growing divergence in the macro data: capacity utilization is ticking higher while consumer spending shows signs of strain. With industrial production rising but jobless claims creeping up, they ask whether this is a signal of resilience or a warning of a slowdown. They dive into the latest capacity utilization reading o
How Capacity Utilization Signals the Next Recession
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilization, one of the most overlooked leading indicators. With the latest reading at 76.2 percent in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13 percent, they explore why this slow creep matters more than the headline GDP or jobs numbers. They trace the history of capacity utilization as a recession predictor, look at how it behaved before the 2008 and 2020
Why Jobless Claims Are Rising Despite a Growing Economy
The economy is growing, unemployment is low, and stocks are near all-time highs. So why are initial jobless claims rising? In Episode 56 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest claims data — 229,000 for the week of June 6, up from 225,000 the prior week and 212,000 a year ago. They explore the gap between headline GDP and the real economy: layoffs are ticking up in
How Capacity Utilisation Signals a Turning Economy
Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—the measure of how hard factories and mines are running—and explain why it's flashing a subtle warning even as GDP grows. With the May 2026 reading at 76.2%, up slightly from 76.13%, but still below pre-pandemic averages, the hosts explore what this metric tells us about inflation, business investment, and the real slack in the economy. They connect it
The GDP-CPI Split and What It Means for Your Money
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between real GDP growth and consumer inflation in mid-2026. With GDP annualizing at just 1.6% while CPI hits 4.2% annually—the highest in three years—the hosts unpack what this split signals for household budgets, Federal Reserve policy, and portfolio strategy. They examine specific data points inc
Why Industrial Production Is Leading GDP in 2026
GDP is growing at 1.6 percent annualized, but a less-watched number—industrial production—is telling a more interesting story. Lucas and Luna dig into why the factory sector is outperforming services, what capacity utilization at 76.1 percent means for inflation, and how the Iran conflict is reshaping manufacturing supply chains. They connect the dots between the ECB rate hike, the 4.2 percent CPI
Why Real Wages Are Falling Despite a Strong Labor Market
Lucas and Luna dig into an uncomfortable economic paradox: the unemployment rate is flat at 4.3%, monthly payrolls keep rising, yet average hourly earnings adjusted for CPI are actually shrinking. They explore how the 4.2% annual CPI print in May has erased wage gains, leaving workers with less purchasing power than a year ago. Lucas walks through the math of real wages, why hourly earnings data c
How the ECB Rate Hike Reshapes Global Inflation Expectations
In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into the European Central Bank's first rate hike since 2023, announced on June 11, 2026, amid the Iran conflict-driven energy surge. They explore how this ECB move signals a shift in global inflation dynamics, linking it to the recent 4.2% annual CPI rise in the US and the steepening yield curve. Using the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.31%,
What the 10-Year Breakeven Tells Us About Inflation Now
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.31 percent—and what it reveals about market expectations for future inflation. They compare it to the latest CPI print of 4.2 percent and the core PCE index, explaining why breakevens matter more than headline numbers for investors. The hosts also discuss how the ECB's rec
How Job Openings Surged While Hiring Stayed Flat
In episode 49 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the puzzling April JOLTS report: job openings jumped by over 700,000 to 7.6 million, yet hiring barely budged. They explore what this growing gap between vacancies and actual hiring tells us about labor market friction, worker reluctance, and whether the economy is really as strong as the headline numbers suggest. With th
Why Wholesale Inflation Surged 1.1 Percent in May 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 wholesale inflation report that showed a 1.1 percent monthly jump, far above expectations. They explore how surging energy costs, driven by the Iran conflict, are feeding through to producer prices and what this means for future consumer inflation. The hosts connect yesterday's PPI data to the broader economi
What Wholesale Inflation Means for Your Portfolio
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 Producer Price Index report—wholesale prices surged 1.1% month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a spike in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. They discuss why PPI matters as a leading indicator for consumer inflation, how the 10-year breakeven rate is diverging from PPI, and what this mean
How the 10-Year Breakeven Rate Signals Slowing Inflation
On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has fallen to 2.29 percent from 2.34 percent in just a few days. They explore what this market-based measure says about investor expectations versus the official CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation. The hosts discuss how breakeven rates reflect real-time sentiment, why the
How Higher Energy Prices Are Reshaping Inflation Expectations
Lucas and Luna examine the latest CPI print showing 4.2% annual inflation in May 2026 — the highest in three years — and dig into what's really driving it: an energy-price surge connected to global supply shocks and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023. They break down the gap between headline and core CPI, explain why breakeven inflation rates matter now more than ever, and explore what higher en
Why Jobless Claims Are Rising Despite a Growing Economy
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling disconnect: the economy is growing, unemployment is low, yet initial jobless claims have jumped to 225,000 as of late May 2026—up from 212,000 the week before. They explore what's driving the increase, from sector-level layoffs to seasonal adjustment quirks, and what it might signal about the labor market's hea
Why Consumer Sentiment Is Collapsing Despite a Growing Economy
Episode 43 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling disconnect: GDP is growing, unemployment is low, yet the New York Fed's latest survey shows household financial worries hitting their highest level since July 2022. They unpack why the sentiment data matters more than GDP for the real economy, and what it signals for consumer spending and the Fed's next move. Plus,
How Business Inventories Are Signaling a Slowdown
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest business inventories data, which hit $2.71 trillion in March 2026. They explain why inventories rising faster than sales is historically a leading recession signal, especially with capacity utilisation stuck at 76.1 percent. Using the recent JOLTS job openings surge and the yield curve steepening as context, th
How Household Finances Are Souring Despite GDP Growth
GDP is growing at 1.6 percent annualised, the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent, and payrolls keep rising. So why did the New York Fed's latest survey show household financial worries hitting their highest level since July 2022? Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between top-line macro data and what families are actually feeling. They look at the gap between nominal GDP growth and real wage gai
Why Household Inflation Expectations Matter More Than CPI Now
Episode 40 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo digs into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. Lucas and Luna explain why inflation expectations among consumers now diverge from official CPI data, and why that gap matters for the Fed's next move. They connect the survey to real GDP growth
How Household Inflation Expectations Signal a Shift in Consumer Behavior
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. They explore how this shift in consumer sentiment is beginning to affect spending patterns, savings rates, and even the Federal Reserve's policy path. With the May jobs report d
Why the Nasdaq Is Down Five Percent While GDP Is Growing
The S&P 500 is at 7,384 and the Nasdaq has dropped over five percent in five days, yet real GDP grew at 1.6 percent annualized in Q1 2026 and the unemployment rate is a low 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpick this apparent contradiction by looking at the composition of GDP growth, the surge in job openings to 7.6 million, and what the bond market is pricing in via the ten-year yield at 4.54 percent
What the Yield Curve Steepening Means for 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprising steepening of the yield curve in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.54 percent and the two-year at 3.62 percent, the spread has widened past 90 basis points after being inverted for over two years. What does this signal about growth expectations, Fed policy, and the risk of a recession? The h
Capacity Utilisation and the Hidden Slack in the Economy
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—an often-overlooked metric that reveals how much industrial slack the economy really has. With the latest reading stuck at 76.1 percent, well below the long-run average of 80 percent, the hosts explain why factories aren't running hot despite decent GDP growth. They connect this to the tepid inflation
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening Again in 2026
Lucas and Luna dig into the striking data showing the yield curve is steepening—the 10-year Treasury hit 4.54 percent and the 30-year touched 5.00 percent—while short-term rates stay elevated. They explore whether this signals the economy is healing, or if it reflects war-risk premiums and tariff uncertainty. Using the latest CPI, jobs, and GDP data from June 2026, they unpack what the curve's sha
Why Business Inventories Are a Leading Recession Signal
Episode 34 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into total business inventories—the $2.71 trillion number that often flashes warning before a downturn. Lucas and Luna break down why inventories rose 0.9% in March 2026 even as consumer spending softens, what the inventory-to-sales ratio is signaling, and how this metric differs from GDP or jobs data. They reference the May jobs report preview
Long-Term Unemployment Is Spiking What It Means
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data showing long-term unemployment is surging in the U.S., even as headline job numbers look solid. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3% and initial jobless claims rising to 225,000, they explore the hidden drag on the economy, the Fed's frustration, and why this structural shift matters more than monthly payrolls. They connect the dots to capacity utilizati
Why Capacity Utilisation Is Stuck Below 77 Percent
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a number that keeps catching Lucas's eye: capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent. Even as real GDP growth rebounded to 1.6 percent annualised and job openings surged to 7.6 million, factories are still running well below the 78-to-80 percent range that historically signals pricing power and investment. They trace the histor
Why Industrial Production Is Beating GDP This Cycle
GDP is growing at just 1.6 percent annualized, but industrial production has jumped 0.7 percent in a single month. Lucas and Luna unpack why factories, refineries, and utilities are outperforming the broader economy — and what that means for the Fed, inflation, and your portfolio. They look at capacity utilization hitting 76.1 percent, the inventory rebuild that's driving output, and why this dive
How the GDP Deflator Reveals Hidden Inflation Pressures
In episode 30 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the GDP deflator—a measure of economy-wide inflation that often gets overshadowed by CPI and PCE. They explain why the deflator can signal broadening price pressures before they show up in consumer surveys, and how the current gap between real and nominal GDP growth hints at underlying inflation that Fed policy alone may st
Why the GDP Deflator Is the Inflation Signal You Are Missing
Lucas and Luna dive into the GDP deflator, a broad measure of inflation that the Fed monitors closely but most people overlook. With nominal GDP at $31.8 trillion and real GDP growth at just 1.6%, they explain how the deflator captures price changes across the entire economy, including investment goods and government spending that CPI misses. They contrast it with the PCE price index, showing why
How Job Openings Surged to 7.6 Million in April 2026
Lucas and Luna break down the surprise jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. They explore why this number jumped despite a flat unemployment rate and what it means for the Fed's interest rate path. The conversation connects JOLTS data to wage growth and inflation, using the latest CPI and average hourly earnings figures. Lucas argues that the job marke
How JOLTS Surprise Reshapes the Fed Rate Outlook
Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years, complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data, unpacking why a hot labor market doesn't necessarily mean rate hikes ahead. They connect the dots to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE at 3.3% — and explore how geopolitical shocks like the Iran war are distorting t
What Producer Prices Signal About Fed Policy Better Than CPI
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why producer prices—specifically the producer price index—may be a more accurate leading indicator of Fed policy than the consumer price index. Using fresh data from June 2026, they explain how rising input costs at the factory level are filtering through to core inflation, even as CPI shows a slight cooldown. Lucas tra
How Producer Prices Signal Fed Policy Better Than CPI
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why producer price index (PPI) data may offer a timelier signal of inflationary pressure than the consumer-focused CPI. With core PCE running at 3.3% annually and energy inflation stubbornly persistent due to the Iran conflict, the hosts examine how input costs for manufacturers—such as energy, raw materials, and logistics
Why Real vs Nominal GDP Divergence Matters Now
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the growing gap between nominal and real GDP growth. As of Q1 2026, nominal GDP hit $31.82 trillion while real GDP (chained 2017 dollars) reached $24.15 trillion. That $7.67 trillion spread reflects nearly four years of cumulative inflation. The hosts explain why nominal GDP captures total spending power in the economy—in
Why Nominal GDP Growth Matters for Your Portfolio
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the gap between nominal and real GDP growth, using the latest data (Q1 2026 nominal GDP at $31.82 trillion, real at $24.15 trillion) to explain why inflation-adjusted figures can paint a deceptive picture. They discuss how nominal growth signals corporate revenue potential, while real growth reveals actual economic expansion. With core PCE inflation stuck at
How the Iran War Is Distorting Inflation Data
On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down how the ongoing Iran war is creating a distortion in core inflation readings. With the Fed's preferred PCE gauge showing core inflation at 3.3% annually, but energy prices adding $450 to the average household's annual costs, they examine whether stripping out energy prices still makes sense when the shock is prolonged.
How the Jobs-Openings Puzzle Complicates the Fed Rate Outlook
This episode digs into the JOLTS data released on May 30, 2026, which shows job openings falling to 6.866 million, the lowest since early 2021. Lucas and Luna explore what this decline means for the Fed's rate path—especially with core inflation still running at 3.3 percent and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent. They focus on the puzzle of falling openings without a spike in layoffs, th
Wage Growth Isnt Keeping Pace with Core Inflation
Lucas and Luna dive into the April 2026 inflation and wage data, showing that while average hourly earnings rose to $37.40, core CPI climbed to 335.4 and core PCE hit a 3.3% annual rate. They explain why real wage growth has turned negative for most workers, how the Iran war energy shock is compounding the squeeze, and what this means for consumer spending and Fed policy. A data-driven look at the
How Energy Inflation Is Distorting the Core CPI Picture
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why energy inflation is skewing the way we read core CPI and the Fed's preferred PCE gauge. With the Iran war pushing household energy costs up by nearly $450 annually, the hosts examine how stripping out food and energy might be masking persistent price pressures in other sectors. They explore the gap between core CPI
How Inventory Cycles Are Reshaping GDP in 2026
Business inventories have surged to $2.7 trillion, adding a volatile twist to GDP growth. Lucas and Luna break down how inventory accumulation boosted first-quarter growth to 1.6 percent annualized, why the build-up may reverse in coming quarters, and what the 76.1 percent capacity utilisation rate tells us about whether companies are producing ahead of demand or sitting on unsold goods. Drawing o
What Durable Goods Orders Tell Us About the Economy
Lucas and Luna dive into the durable goods orders report, which dropped a surprise 6.2% in April. But they explain why the headline number is misleading—transportation orders can swing wildly. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, actually rose 0.4%. They connect this to the Fed's dilemma: sticky services inflation versus cooling goods demand. With real GDP growth at 1.6% and
Core PCE vs CPI Which Inflation Number Matters More
Lucas and Luna break down the difference between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — and why the Fed prioritises Core PCE. With CPI at 332.4 and Core PCE at 129.3, they explain how each index is constructed, why they diverge, and what that means for the rate path ahead. Plus: a quick look at how breakeven inflation expectations have edged down to 2.39%,
How Capacity Utilisation Leads GDP in Predicting the Cycle
Lucas and Luna explore why capacity utilisation, currently at 76.1 percent, may be a more reliable leading indicator of economic turning points than GDP itself. They discuss the latest industrial production data, the gap between current utilisation and the long-run average, and what this means for inflation and Fed policy in mid-2026. Drawing on historical patterns, including the 2008 financial cr
Capacity Utilisation Tells a Different Story Than GDP
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilisation — the often-overlooked metric that reveals whether the economy is running hot or has room to grow. With the latest data showing capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent in April 2026, up from 75.67 in March, Lucas explains why this matters more than the headline GDP number. They explore how capacity cons
Capacity Utilisation Is the Signal to Watch in 2026
Lucas and Luna break down why capacity utilisation — currently at 76.1 percent — is a more reliable forward-looking indicator than GDP or unemployment for gauging inflationary pressure and the next Fed move. Using data from May 2026, they explain how factories running at 76 percent capacity leave room for output without spiking prices, and why a reading above 80 percent has historically preceded r
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