Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data
Lucas and Luna sit down each day with the latest releases of GDP, CPI, and PMI data, reading the macro tea leaves for what they actually mean for markets, policy, and business decisions. In each episode, Lucas traces a specific indicator—say, the core PCE deflator or the ISM manufacturing index—while Luna challenges the consensus interpretation, pushing toward the second-order effects that get lost in the headline numbers. They never just report the data; they argue about its signal-to-noise ratio, its revisions history, and its predictive track record. This is a show for the analyst, the portfolio manager, the economist, or the business leader who needs to interpret economic releases faster and more skeptically than the press releases. Lucas and Luna hold each other accountable to the numbers, calling out the difference between statistical noise and genuine turning points. Each episode closes with one unresolved tension: a data point that defies easy narrative, a lagging indicator that might be about to flip, or a policy response that could scramble the forecast.
Episodes
Treasury Buybacks and the Challenge of Reining In a Forty Trillion Dollar Debt
The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion, doubling in a decade. Treasury Secretary Bessent is trying something new: regular buybacks of older, less liquid Treasury bonds, hoping to calm a nervous market. But a $4 billion operation against a $40 trillion pile is a drop in the bucket. Lucas and Luna dig into how buybacks work, why the market is skeptical, and what else Bessent could try—from
The Hidden Logic of Treasury Buybacks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plan to buy back US government debt has been making headlines, but what does it actually mean for the economy? In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of Treasury buybacks, why they're being deployed now, and how they connect to the broader bond market. They explore the tension between calming markets and fueling inflation worries, using recent d
Why the US Debt Ceiling Keeps Rising
In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest data showing US government debt crossing $40 trillion, more than doubling in a decade. With Treasury Secretary Bessent hinting that the deficit may have peaked and announcing a potential $4 billion buyback operation, they explore what these numbers mean for everyday Americans. From the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.74% to the r
Why the Deficit Might Actually Be Shrinking
The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the deficit may have peaked. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the gap between the scary headline number and the actual annual shortfall. They explain why the deficit is shrinking even as the debt grows, what falling interest rates and a cooling labor market have to do with it, and why the next few q
Why Business Inventories Are the Hidden Stress Test
In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising rise in business inventories—up to $2.74 trillion in June—and why that buildup is flashing warning signs for the economy. They explain how inventory cycles have historically amplified recessions, why the current glut is concentrated in goods rather than services, and what it means for GDP growth, manufacturing output, a
Why Business Inventories Are the Hidden Stress Test
While everyone watches GDP and jobs numbers, Lucas and Luna dig into a quieter gauge that's flashing slightly softer: total business inventories. At 2.74 trillion dollars in June, that's up again after a long stretch of drawdowns. They explain what inventory rebuilding says about corporate confidence, how it feeds into GDP growth, and why this cycle's modest restocking—not a massive surge—suggests
Why JOLTS Is a Better Gauge Than the Headline Jobs Number
On this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna explain why the JOLTS report matters more than the headline unemployment rate right now. With job openings down to 7.36 million in June while payrolls barely moved, the quiet loosening in the labor market is the real story. They walk through the quits rate, the hires rate, and what the Beveridge curve is telling us about the path to a soft lan
Why Bond Yields Are Rising While Inflation Cools
In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been confusing markets since spring: why are long-term Treasury yields climbing even as inflation data — from CPI to the PCE deflator — show price pressures cooling? They start with the numbers: the ten-year yield has drifted up to around 4.7 percent while core PCE inflation has eased to 2.6 percent. Lucas explains the
The Unheard Story Behind the Record-Low Lettuce Prices
In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into an unexpected economic signal: the record-setting plunge in lettuce prices in August 2026, driven by a cyclospora outbreak that spooked consumers. They explore how a food-safety scare can ripple through the produce aisle, showing up in CPI data even as core inflation stays sticky. The hosts connect this micro story to broader macro t
Why the Labor Market Is Quietly Cooling
The July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 payrolls, yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into this puzzle—and what it says about the broader economy. They look at the drop in job openings, the rise in initial claims, and why the labor market might be cooler than the headline numbers suggest. The hosts also explore how this ties to slower GDP growth and sticky core i
The Real Story Behind the Latest CPI Reading
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the July CPI report, which showed headline inflation cooling to 2.6 percent while core prices remained sticky at 3.2 percent. They explore why shelter costs are still pushing core inflation higher, how the Fed is likely to interpret this data ahead of its September meeting, and what it means for your wallet. With the ten-ye
Dissecting the Final CPI Report Before the Fed's September Pause
Lucas and Luna dive into the July CPI report, which showed consumer prices rising just 0.1 percent for an annual rate of 3.4 percent. They explore why underlying inflation remains sticky, with core CPI at 3.6 percent, and what this means for the Federal Reserve's next move. The conversation touches on the surprising divergence between cooling goods prices and persistent services inflation, and how
Why Jobless Claims Stay Low While Hiring Freezes
The July jobs report showed a 23,000 payroll loss, yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent and initial jobless claims are near 199,000. How can hiring freeze while layoffs stay historically scarce? In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the puzzle: businesses are hoarding workers after two years of labor shortages, holding onto staff even as demand cools. They look at the JOLTS data showing
Why Payrolls Lost 23,000 Jobs While Unemployment Fell
The July jobs report delivered a genuine puzzle: payrolls fell by 23,000, yet the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the details — from the ADP private-sector estimate of just 44,000 added workers to the 158.9 million total nonfarm payrolls — and explain how the household survey and the establishment survey can tell different stories. They also look at what this mean
Why the Jobs Report Lost 23,000 Jobs and What It Means
The July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in years, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why did payrolls shrink yet unemployment drop? They dig into the household survey versus the establishment survey, the divergence in hiring trends, and what it signals for the Fed's next move. With real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 p
Why the Yield Curve Is Not Predicting a Recession This Time
In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking anomaly: the yield curve has been inverted for years, yet the economy keeps humming along. With the ten-year Treasury at 4.66 percent and the two-year at 4.36 percent, the curve is still inverted, but the economy isn't behaving like a recession is imminent. Lucas explains why this time might be different—how global demand f
Why Real GDP Growth Slowed to 1.5 Percent While Inflation Cools
The U.S. economy grew at just 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2.1 percent in the first. Meanwhile, CPI has fallen for three straight months and core PCE remains sticky. Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence: why real growth is slowing even as inflation cools, and what it means for the Fed's next move. They look at the July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, and th
The Sticky Core CPI Puzzle Explained
Core inflation is cooling slower than headline CPI, and the latest data shows why. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the gap between the 332.6 CPI reading and the 336.1 core, using July's soft ADP report and the 10-year breakeven at 2.22 percent to illustrate. They explain how shelter costs, used cars, and services keep core sticky, why the Federal Reserve under Warsh cares more about cor
The Divergence Between Real and Nominal GDP
In this milestone episode 150 of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into the gap between real and nominal GDP. With real GDP growth cooling to 1.5 percent while nominal GDP climbs above $32 trillion, what does this divergence tell us about the economy's health? They explore how the GDP deflator—the bridge between the two—reveals underlying inflation pressures, and why this matters for your i
Why Core PCE Is Still High While CPI Drops
In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into the puzzle of the moment: headline CPI is cooling, but core PCE is still running warm. With June CPI down to 332.6 and core PCE up to 130.3, the two indicators are telling different stories about inflation. Lucas explains why the Fed leans on core PCE, how housing and services keep it sticky, and what the latest jobless claims and GDP
Why Core Inflation Stays Sticky While CPI Cools
The latest CPI print shows headline inflation cooling, but core inflation remains stubbornly high. Lucas and Luna dig into the divergence, looking at shelter costs, services inflation, and the Fed's favorite gauge, core PCE, which is still running at 3.3 percent. They discuss why the CPI and PCE tell different stories, what it means for the Fed's next moves, and why the gap between goods and servi
Why the GDP Deflator and Core PCE Are Diverging
Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been nagging macro watchers: real GDP is growing at just 1.5 percent annualized, yet core inflation measures are sending conflicting signals. They unpack the GDP deflator's rise, the surprising cooling in CPI, and why the Fed's preferred core PCE gauge remains stubbornly sticky. With breakevens ticking up and jobless claims jumping, they explore what this di
Why Real GDP Growth Slowed to 1.5 Percent
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore why real GDP growth slowed to 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, even as nominal GDP expanded and inflation cooled. They break down the role of the GDP deflator, the divergence between real and nominal growth, and what this means for business investment, consumer spending, and Federal Reserve policy. With core inflation still above the Fed's target a
The Growth-Inflation Divergence Why Core Prices Are Sticky
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the puzzling divergence between slowing GDP growth and stubborn core inflation. With Q2 real GDP growth dipping to 1.5 percent but core PCE edging up, they explore why the economy is cooling while prices refuse to cooperate. They look at the latest core CPI flatness, the rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, and wh
Why the GDP Deflator Tells a Different Inflation Story
While CPI has cooled, the GDP deflator is rising faster than most realize. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the deflator — which covers all domestically produced goods and services — is running hot, and what that means for Fed policy. With real GDP growth accelerating to 2.1% and nominal GDP climbing, the deflator is hovering around 3.5% annualized, well above headline CPI. They expl
Why GDP Is Growing Faster While Inflation Cools Down
GDP growth just accelerated to 2.1 percent annualized, up from 0.5 percent late last year. Meanwhile, consumer prices are falling and unemployment is ticking lower. Lucas and Luna dig into the unusual combination of faster growth and cooling inflation—what it signals for corporate margins, Fed rate decisions, and whether the 'soft landing' narrative actually holds. They reference the latest nomina
Why Import Costs Are Rising Even as CPI Cools
Episode 142 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. With the latest CPI reading at 332.6 (down from 333.98) and core PCE still sticky at 130.1, we dig into a surprising divergence: import prices from China just hit their highest level since 2008, and oil-driven inflation fears prompted Singapore to tighten monetary policy. Lucas and Luna explore what rising input costs mean for consumer prices, margi
Why Jobless Claims Hit a Record Low While Factory Use Stalls
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack a striking disconnect in the latest data: initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000 — a multi-decade low — while capacity utilization remains stuck at 76.1%, essentially flat for months. With unemployment falling to 4.2% and real GDP growth accelerating to 2.1% annualized, the labor market is red-hot, but factories aren't r
Why CPI and PCE Are Sending Different Inflation Signals
In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into a puzzle plaguing markets in mid-2026: the CPI is falling, but the PCE price index is still climbing. With the Fed watching Core PCE closely, the hosts break down why the two inflation gauges are diverging, what it means for interest rates, and how the breakeven inflation rate adds another layer. They reference the latest data—CPI at
Why Businesses Are Rebuilding Inventories Again
After months of destocking, total business inventories rose by $8 billion in May 2026. Lucas and Luna break down what this shift means for GDP growth, the labor market, and why the yield curve's recession signal might be wrong. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% and jobless claims at 187,000, is the inventory rebuild the first sign of sustained expansion? They also discuss the divergence between f
Why Core PCE Is Stubborn While CPI Falls
In episode 138, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzling disconnect in the latest economic data: the Consumer Price Index dropped to 332.6 in June, but the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, core PCE, continued to edge higher. With real GDP growth accelerating to 2.1% and the labor market still tight at 187,000 jobless claims, they explore why inflation isn't falling uniformly. They break down the composi
Why Import Prices Are Surging While Consumer Inflation Cools
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprise jump in import prices in July 2026—costs of goods from China hit their highest since 2008. They explore why this is happening against a backdrop of falling CPI and core inflation, the role of Trump's new tariff plans, and what global monetary tightening (Singapore's surprise move) means for the Fed. With sp
Why the Fed Watches Core PCE More Than CPI
In June 2026, headline CPI fell to 332.6 from 333.98, a rare decline that grabbed headlines. But the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, actually rose to 131.5 from 130.94, and core PCE ticked up to 130.1. So which number matters more? In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the structural differences between CPI and PCE—scope, weighting, and formula effects—and explain why th
What the 187000 Jobless Claims Number Really Means
Initial jobless claims just dropped to 187,000 — the lowest since early 2025. But hiring remains sluggish, and the quits rate is falling. In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why layoffs are near record lows while employers aren't rushing to add workers. They explore three possible explanations, including labor hoarding, skill mismatches, and a ca
Why Layoffs Are Low But Hiring Is Slow
Initial jobless claims have plunged to 187,000, a multi-month low, yet the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June 2026. Lucas and Luna unpack this labor market paradox: companies are holding onto workers but barely hiring. They explore reasons including pandemic-era labor hoarding, skill mismatches, geographic frictions, and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the unemployment rate
Why the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Matters Now
Lucas and Luna drill into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.28 percent—and what it reveals about market expectations for inflation, Fed policy, and economic growth in mid-2026. They explain how this single number is constructed from TIPS versus nominal Treasury yields, why it's been stuck near 2.3 percent despite CPI volatility, and what a flat breakeven signals about investor co
What Falling Jobless Claims and Rising Yields Tell Us About the Economy
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into two seemingly contradictory data points from July 2026: jobless claims dropped to 187,000, the lowest in months, while the ten-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.7 percent. They explore what falling claims suggest about the labor market's resilience, why bond yields are rising despite cooling inflation, and how investors
Understanding the Beige Book and What the Fed Is Saying
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and what it reveals about the current economic landscape in mid-2026. They dissect the latest Fed communication — focusing on Governor Kevin Warsh's recent comments and how markets interpret his phrasing. The hosts tie the Beige Book's anecdotal evidence to real data points: the drop in i
What Falling Capacity Utilization Tells Us About the Economy
Lucas and Luna dive into the latest capacity utilization data — currently at 76.1 percent, just above recessionary levels — and explain why this often-overlooked metric signals more about industrial slack than GDP or unemployment. They trace how capacity utilization has historically led manufacturing layoffs and capital expenditure cuts, and debate whether the current reading is a warning or noise
Why Dividend Stocks Are Getting Crushed by Falling Yields
With the ten-year Treasury yield plunging to 4.65 percent and the two-year at 4.40 percent, dividend-paying stocks are getting squeezed from two sides. Lucas and Luna break down why utilities, REITs, and consumer staples have underperformed the broader market by 8 to 12 percent since June, even as the S&P 500 hits fresh highs. They examine the mechanics: falling bond yields usually boost defensive
What the Yield Curve Says About Recession Risk in 2026
Lucas and Luna dig into the steepening yield curve in mid-2026. The ten-year Treasury hit 4.63 percent, the two-year sits at 4.37, and the spread has widened to 26 basis points — positive territory after being inverted for over two years. They discuss what a normalizing curve actually signals for growth, credit conditions, and the Fed's next move. With real GDP growth at 2.1 percent and core CPI s
How Import Prices Are Spiking Despite Falling Wholesale Costs
Episode 127 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into a puzzling economic disconnect: why import prices are surging even as wholesale costs decline. Lucas and Luna examine the June 2026 import price data, which showed the biggest jump in costs from China since 2008, while the Producer Price Index unexpectedly fell 0.3 percent. They unpack the roles of tariffs, geopolitical tensions in the Hor
Why Producer Prices Signal Consumer Pain Ahead
Lucas and Luna break down the surprising June 2026 producer price decline of 0.3% and what it means for consumers. Despite falling wholesale costs, import prices from China hit their highest since 2008. They explore how disinflation at the factory gate doesn't always reach store shelves, especially with rising tariffs and supply chain shifts. The episode also covers capacity utilization dipping to
Capacity Utilization Signals the Next Recession
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the capacity utilization rate — currently at 76.1% — and what it tells us about the risk of recession in mid-2026. They explain how the Fed watches this number for slack in the economy, why it's been stuck below 80% for over a year, and how it connects to falling inventories and sticky core inflation. With real GDP growt
What Falling Inventories Tell Us About the Economy in Mid-2026
Episode 124 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into the surprising rise in total business inventories, which hit $2.736 trillion in May 2026, up from $2.728 trillion in April. While headlines focus on slowing growth, Lucas and Luna unpack what the inventory build really means—suggesting businesses are restocking cautiously rather than signaling demand weakness. They connect the dots to the
What Falling Inventories Tell Us About the Economy
In Episode 123 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point: total business inventories rose in May 2026, but the pace of restocking is lagging behind sales. Using the latest numbers—inventories at $2.736 trillion versus a 2.1% annualized GDP growth rate—they explain why the inventory-to-sales ratio matters more than the absolute level. They explore what thi
What Falling Inventories Tell Us About the Economy
Lucas and Luna dig into the July 2026 business inventories data to explain why falling stock-to-sales ratios are a more nuanced signal than many assume. They break down how inventory cycles have historically preceded recessions and recoveries, distinguish between planned destocking and forced liquidations, and tie current inventory trends to consumer demand signals and industrial production. Using
Why Import Prices Are Spiking Despite Falling Wholesale Costs
Episode 121 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: wholesale prices fell 0.3% in June on a steep drop in gasoline, yet import prices just posted a surprise gain — with costs of goods from China hitting their highest since 2008. They unpack how the two measures differ, what the data says about supply-chain pressures and domestic demand, and why the Fed might be more
How Capacity Utilization Signals the Next Recession
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilization—an often-overlooked leading indicator that can flag a turning point before GDP does. With the latest data showing utilization stuck at 76.1 percent, they explore why this level historically signals trouble, how it connects to business inventories and the Fed's rate decisions, and what it means for investors and job seekers in mid-2026.
What the Industrial Production Index Tells Us About Growth
Industrial production rose to 102.6 in May, up from 102.5, and capacity utilization ticked up to 76.2%. But the headline masks a split: manufacturing output is being propped up by aerospace and defense, while consumer-driven sectors like apparel and furniture are contracting. Lucas and Luna examine why the industrial production index matters for real GDP growth, how inventory cycles amplify the si
What the Industrial Production Index Tells Us About Growth
Lucas and Luna drill into the industrial production index, a less-hyped but vital economic indicator. With the index at 102.6 and capacity utilisation at 76.2% as of May 2026, they explore what factory output and slack tell us about GDP momentum and inflation. They discuss why the 2.1% real GDP growth rate feels underwhelming despite positive headlines, and how industrial production offers a real-
What the July 2026 CPI Tells Us About the Consumer
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest CPI data released July 14, 2026, which showed consumer prices rising 3.5% annually, below expectations. They focus on the big story beneath the headline: energy prices fell sharply, but core services inflation remains stubborn. Using the Fed's Beige Book mention of a World Cup boost to bars and restaurants alongside consumer warning signs, they ask whether the so
Why Wholesale Prices Just Dropped But CPI Is Still Sticky
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising June wholesale price decline announced on July 15, 2026, and what it tells us about where inflation is really headed. With producer prices falling 0.3% month-over-month, the duo explores why consumer prices rose 3.5% annually—less than expected—and what this divergence means for the Fed's next move. They dig
Why CPI Fell While Core Inflation Stayed Sticky
In Episode 115 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising June CPI report: headline inflation eased to 3.5% year-over-year, but core CPI barely budged at 336.1. They drill into what's driving the divergence — from falling energy prices to stubborn services inflation — and what it means for the Fed's next move. With the 10-year breakeven rate at 2.25% and the unemplo
Why the Unemployment Rate Is Falling Despite Slow Hiring
Episode 114 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo examines a paradox in the June 2026 jobs data: the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent even as payroll growth remained modest. Lucas and Luna unpack the role of labor force participation—now at a five-decade low—and how discouraged workers leaving the job pool can improve the headline rate without a hiring boom. They look at prime-age participat
Why the Labor Force Participation Rate Is at a 50-Year Low
The U.S. labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level since the 1970s, excluding the pandemic. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the June 2026 data—the rate dropped to 62.5%—and explore why workers are leaving or not returning. They discuss the role of aging demographics, the rise of long-term disability, and the mismatch between available jobs and worker skills. With job op
Why Services Inflation Is Sticking Around Longer Than Expected
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into why services inflation has been so sticky in 2026 — even as goods inflation cools. They look at a specific data point: the core PCE services index, which rose 0.3% month-over-month in May, accelerating from earlier in the year. They connect it to shelter costs, wage growth in lower-paying service industries, and what it m
The Quiet Rise of Services Inflation in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna examine a trend flying under the radar: services inflation is becoming stickier than goods inflation. With the Core PCE price index at 130.1 (up from 129.67) and the CPI at 334.0, they break down why services like rent, insurance, and healthcare are outpacing goods in price growth. Using the latest data from July 2026, they explain how this sh
How Imputed Rent Is Quietly Driving CPI Higher
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the mechanics of owners' equivalent rent — the single largest component of the CPI. With CPI at 334.0 and core CPI at 336.1 as of May 2026, they explain why over one-quarter of the index is tied to an estimated price homeowners would pay to rent their own homes. The hosts break down how the Bureau of Labor Statistics sur
How Funflation Is Reshaping the CPI in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the concept of 'funflation' — the rising cost of at-home entertainment and leisure activities. Using the latest CPI data from May 2026, they explore how categories like streaming services, gaming platforms, and home fitness equipment are seeing price increases that outpace overall inflation. They discuss why this trend i
How Home Inflation Is Reshaping the CPI in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the 'funflation' phenomenon—where staying home for entertainment is no longer a cost-saving strategy. Using fresh May 2026 CPI data, they unpack how shelter and at-home services are driving core inflation higher, while goods prices stay flat. They explore what this means for Fed policy, the consumer spending shift from e
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening Again in Mid-2026
The yield curve is steepening — but not for the reasons markets usually expect. In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the divergence between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, what the rising term premium signals about fiscal risk, and why this steepening might be more about supply than growth. With the 10-year yield at 4.57% and the 2-year at 3.69%, t
Why the Fed Still Watches Breakeven Rates Over Headline CPI
In Episode 106 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but powerful number from the latest economic data: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has slipped to 2.23 percent. While the CPI and PCE indexes still show sticky price pressures, the breakeven—a market-implied inflation expectation—has been edging down since spring. Lucas explains how the breakeven is calculated
Why Corporate Bond Spreads Are Narrowing Despite Slow Growth
Lucas and Luna unpack a curious market signal: corporate bond spreads are tightening even as GDP growth moderates and the labor market shows cracks. With the S&P 500 at 7,544 and job creation slowing to just 57,000 in June, bond markets seem to be pricing in a different reality. Lucas dives into the mechanics of credit spreads, the role of the Fed's rate path, and why investors are piling into inv
Why the Fed Is Watching CPI Break Even More Closely
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed has shifted its focus from headline CPI to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate as a better gauge of long-run inflation expectations. Using the latest data from July 2026—where breakevens have held steady at 2.25% while CPI ticked up to 334.0—they explain how this metric filters out transitory noise and sign
Why the Core PCE Tells a Different Inflation Story Than CPI
On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a key tension in today's macro data: CPI is running at 4.3% annualized over the past three months, but the Fed's preferred gauge — core PCE — is hovering just above 2.5%. They explain the structural differences between the two measures (CPI weights housing more heavily; PCE accounts for substitution effects), and walk thr
How Capacity Utilization Flags a Turn Before GDP Does
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilization—a leading indicator that often signals a turning point in the economy months before GDP data confirms it. Using the latest May 2026 data showing utilization at 76.2%, they explain why this number matters, how it connects to business investment and inflation, and what it tells us about the current cyc
What the PCE Price Index Reveals About Consumer Spending in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why the PCE price index, not CPI, is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Using fresh data from July 2026 — including a 131.5 PCE reading and a 2.25 percent breakeven rate — they break down how consumer spending patterns, substitution bias, and service-sector costs shape monetary policy. Lucas explains why the
Why the PCE Price Index Matters More Than CPI
In this milestone 100th episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a subtle but crucial shift in how inflation is measured. They explain why the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE price index over the more familiar CPI, and why that difference matters for your portfolio. Using the latest data — CPI at 334.0, Core PCE at 130.1, and the 10-year breakeven at 2.25% — they walk t
What the Rising 10-Year Breakeven Rate Tells Us Now
In episode 99 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which just hit 2.24 percent. They explain how this market-based inflation gauge works, why it matters for Fed policy, and what it signals about growth expectations in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.52 percent and core CPI still sticky at 336.1, the hosts explore whether
Why Capacity Utilisation Is a Leading Indicator for GDP
In Episode 98, Lucas and Luna unpack capacity utilisation—a leading indicator that often signals GDP shifts before the headline number does. With the latest reading at 76.2 percent, just above the pre-pandemic average, they explore why this metric matters for the second half of 2026. Lucas traces the history from the 1970s to the 2008 recession, showing how capacity utilisation peaked before each
What the Corporate Bond Spread Is Saying About Risk in 2026
With the S&P 500 near record highs and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.2 percent, you'd expect markets to be calm. But Lucas and Luna dig into a less-watched signal: the corporate bond spread. Investment-grade and high-yield spreads have been widening quietly since May, even as stocks rally. They discuss why bond markets sometimes sniff out trouble before equity markets do, what the spread betw
Why Job Openings Are Rising While Hiring Slows
This episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo digs into a puzzling disconnect in the mid-2026 labor market: job openings are creeping back above 7.6 million, yet payrolls growth has cratered to just 57,000. Lucas and Luna explore what the JOLTS data is really saying about employer hesitation, structural mismatch, and whether the Fed should be more worried about a cold labor market than hot infl
What the Industrial Production Index Reveals About GDP
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into the industrial production index and capacity utilization data released in May 2026. With industrial production rising to 102.6 and capacity utilization ticking up to 76.2%, they explore what these factory-floor metrics signal about broader GDP growth. Lucas explains why capacity utilization still sits well below the 80%
Why Business Inventories Flag GDP Next Moves
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna take a deep dive into business inventories—the often-overlooked data point that can signal the next turn in GDP growth. With total inventories climbing to $2.73 trillion in April 2026, up from $2.71 trillion in March, the hosts explore whether this accumulation is a sign of confidence or an accidental overstock that could trigger
Why Business Inventories Signal the Next Move in GDP
Lucas and Luna dig into a quietly powerful economic indicator: business inventories. While most traders obsess over CPI and payrolls, the inventory-to-sales ratio has been rising, and that matters for GDP revisions. Lucas explains why inventories added over a percentage point to Q2 growth—and why that could reverse. They look at the April data showing inventories up to $2.73 trillion, and discuss
Why Job Seekers Are Giving Up in 2026
Episode 92 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo examines the labor force participation rate, which has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years outside of Covid. Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 jobs report: payrolls grew by just 57,000, and the participation rate dropped to 62.2%. They discuss why workers are leaving the job market—structural shifts like early retirement, caregiving, and discou
What the Labor Force Participation Drop Really Means
Episode 91 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo: Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising drop in labor force participation—now at its lowest outside of the Covid era. They explore what's behind the decline: aging demographics, discouraged workers, and structural shifts in the job market. Using fresh data from the June 2026 jobs report, including the 57,000 payrolls gain and the 4.2% unemployment rat
The Labor Force Dropout Problem No One Is Talking About
The labor force participation rate just fell to its lowest level outside the Covid era, even as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into why millions of Americans have stopped looking for work entirely, what that means for GDP growth and wage pressure, and how the Fed reads a shrinking labor force differently than a rising jobless rate. They break down the participatio
The Hidden Risk of Falling Labor Force Participation
Lucas and Luna dig into a startling new data point: the labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest in 50 years outside of the COVID era. They explore what's driving workers to drop out—demographics, discouraged job seekers, and structural shifts—and why this matters more than the headline unemployment rate. With nonfarm payrolls adding just 57,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rat
Recommended
This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von
Stand In The Circle
Conspiracy Files with Paige Carter
English Vocabulary Help
Bad Friends
The Swerve Podcast: Obscure Topics | Conspiracy Theories
The Bread and Banter Podcast
The Church of What's Happening Now: The New Testament
Deadline: White House
این نقطه
Solved Murders - True Crime Stories
紐約鳥｜New York Aperture
