Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data
Lucas and Luna sit down each day with the latest releases of GDP, CPI, and PMI data, reading the macro tea leaves for what they actually mean for markets, policy, and business decisions. In each episode, Lucas traces a specific indicator—say, the core PCE deflator or the ISM manufacturing index—while Luna challenges the consensus interpretation, pushing toward the second-order effects that get lost in the headline numbers. They never just report the data; they argue about its signal-to-noise ratio, its revisions history, and its predictive track record. This is a show for the analyst, the portfolio manager, the economist, or the business leader who needs to interpret economic releases faster and more skeptically than the press releases. Lucas and Luna hold each other accountable to the numbers, calling out the difference between statistical noise and genuine turning points. Each episode closes with one unresolved tension: a data point that defies easy narrative, a lagging indicator that might be about to flip, or a policy response that could scramble the forecast.
Episodes
What the 187000 Jobless Claims Number Really Means
Initial jobless claims just dropped to 187,000 — the lowest since early 2025. But hiring remains sluggish, and the quits rate is falling. In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why layoffs are near record lows while employers aren't rushing to add workers. They explore three possible explanations, including labor hoarding, skill mismatches, and a ca
Why Layoffs Are Low But Hiring Is Slow
Initial jobless claims have plunged to 187,000, a multi-month low, yet the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June 2026. Lucas and Luna unpack this labor market paradox: companies are holding onto workers but barely hiring. They explore reasons including pandemic-era labor hoarding, skill mismatches, geographic frictions, and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the unemployment rate
Why the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Matters Now
Lucas and Luna drill into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.28 percent—and what it reveals about market expectations for inflation, Fed policy, and economic growth in mid-2026. They explain how this single number is constructed from TIPS versus nominal Treasury yields, why it's been stuck near 2.3 percent despite CPI volatility, and what a flat breakeven signals about investor co
What Falling Jobless Claims and Rising Yields Tell Us About the Economy
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into two seemingly contradictory data points from July 2026: jobless claims dropped to 187,000, the lowest in months, while the ten-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.7 percent. They explore what falling claims suggest about the labor market's resilience, why bond yields are rising despite cooling inflation, and how investors
Understanding the Beige Book and What the Fed Is Saying
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and what it reveals about the current economic landscape in mid-2026. They dissect the latest Fed communication — focusing on Governor Kevin Warsh's recent comments and how markets interpret his phrasing. The hosts tie the Beige Book's anecdotal evidence to real data points: the drop in i
What Falling Capacity Utilization Tells Us About the Economy
Lucas and Luna dive into the latest capacity utilization data — currently at 76.1 percent, just above recessionary levels — and explain why this often-overlooked metric signals more about industrial slack than GDP or unemployment. They trace how capacity utilization has historically led manufacturing layoffs and capital expenditure cuts, and debate whether the current reading is a warning or noise
Why Dividend Stocks Are Getting Crushed by Falling Yields
With the ten-year Treasury yield plunging to 4.65 percent and the two-year at 4.40 percent, dividend-paying stocks are getting squeezed from two sides. Lucas and Luna break down why utilities, REITs, and consumer staples have underperformed the broader market by 8 to 12 percent since June, even as the S&P 500 hits fresh highs. They examine the mechanics: falling bond yields usually boost defensive
What the Yield Curve Says About Recession Risk in 2026
Lucas and Luna dig into the steepening yield curve in mid-2026. The ten-year Treasury hit 4.63 percent, the two-year sits at 4.37, and the spread has widened to 26 basis points — positive territory after being inverted for over two years. They discuss what a normalizing curve actually signals for growth, credit conditions, and the Fed's next move. With real GDP growth at 2.1 percent and core CPI s
How Import Prices Are Spiking Despite Falling Wholesale Costs
Episode 127 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into a puzzling economic disconnect: why import prices are surging even as wholesale costs decline. Lucas and Luna examine the June 2026 import price data, which showed the biggest jump in costs from China since 2008, while the Producer Price Index unexpectedly fell 0.3 percent. They unpack the roles of tariffs, geopolitical tensions in the Hor
Why Producer Prices Signal Consumer Pain Ahead
Lucas and Luna break down the surprising June 2026 producer price decline of 0.3% and what it means for consumers. Despite falling wholesale costs, import prices from China hit their highest since 2008. They explore how disinflation at the factory gate doesn't always reach store shelves, especially with rising tariffs and supply chain shifts. The episode also covers capacity utilization dipping to
Capacity Utilization Signals the Next Recession
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the capacity utilization rate — currently at 76.1% — and what it tells us about the risk of recession in mid-2026. They explain how the Fed watches this number for slack in the economy, why it's been stuck below 80% for over a year, and how it connects to falling inventories and sticky core inflation. With real GDP growt
What Falling Inventories Tell Us About the Economy in Mid-2026
Episode 124 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into the surprising rise in total business inventories, which hit $2.736 trillion in May 2026, up from $2.728 trillion in April. While headlines focus on slowing growth, Lucas and Luna unpack what the inventory build really means—suggesting businesses are restocking cautiously rather than signaling demand weakness. They connect the dots to the
What Falling Inventories Tell Us About the Economy
In Episode 123 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point: total business inventories rose in May 2026, but the pace of restocking is lagging behind sales. Using the latest numbers—inventories at $2.736 trillion versus a 2.1% annualized GDP growth rate—they explain why the inventory-to-sales ratio matters more than the absolute level. They explore what thi
What Falling Inventories Tell Us About the Economy
Lucas and Luna dig into the July 2026 business inventories data to explain why falling stock-to-sales ratios are a more nuanced signal than many assume. They break down how inventory cycles have historically preceded recessions and recoveries, distinguish between planned destocking and forced liquidations, and tie current inventory trends to consumer demand signals and industrial production. Using
Why Import Prices Are Spiking Despite Falling Wholesale Costs
Episode 121 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: wholesale prices fell 0.3% in June on a steep drop in gasoline, yet import prices just posted a surprise gain — with costs of goods from China hitting their highest since 2008. They unpack how the two measures differ, what the data says about supply-chain pressures and domestic demand, and why the Fed might be more
How Capacity Utilization Signals the Next Recession
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilization—an often-overlooked leading indicator that can flag a turning point before GDP does. With the latest data showing utilization stuck at 76.1 percent, they explore why this level historically signals trouble, how it connects to business inventories and the Fed's rate decisions, and what it means for investors and job seekers in mid-2026.
What the Industrial Production Index Tells Us About Growth
Industrial production rose to 102.6 in May, up from 102.5, and capacity utilization ticked up to 76.2%. But the headline masks a split: manufacturing output is being propped up by aerospace and defense, while consumer-driven sectors like apparel and furniture are contracting. Lucas and Luna examine why the industrial production index matters for real GDP growth, how inventory cycles amplify the si
What the Industrial Production Index Tells Us About Growth
Lucas and Luna drill into the industrial production index, a less-hyped but vital economic indicator. With the index at 102.6 and capacity utilisation at 76.2% as of May 2026, they explore what factory output and slack tell us about GDP momentum and inflation. They discuss why the 2.1% real GDP growth rate feels underwhelming despite positive headlines, and how industrial production offers a real-
What the July 2026 CPI Tells Us About the Consumer
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest CPI data released July 14, 2026, which showed consumer prices rising 3.5% annually, below expectations. They focus on the big story beneath the headline: energy prices fell sharply, but core services inflation remains stubborn. Using the Fed's Beige Book mention of a World Cup boost to bars and restaurants alongside consumer warning signs, they ask whether the so
Why Wholesale Prices Just Dropped But CPI Is Still Sticky
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising June wholesale price decline announced on July 15, 2026, and what it tells us about where inflation is really headed. With producer prices falling 0.3% month-over-month, the duo explores why consumer prices rose 3.5% annually—less than expected—and what this divergence means for the Fed's next move. They dig
Why CPI Fell While Core Inflation Stayed Sticky
In Episode 115 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising June CPI report: headline inflation eased to 3.5% year-over-year, but core CPI barely budged at 336.1. They drill into what's driving the divergence — from falling energy prices to stubborn services inflation — and what it means for the Fed's next move. With the 10-year breakeven rate at 2.25% and the unemplo
Why the Unemployment Rate Is Falling Despite Slow Hiring
Episode 114 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo examines a paradox in the June 2026 jobs data: the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent even as payroll growth remained modest. Lucas and Luna unpack the role of labor force participation—now at a five-decade low—and how discouraged workers leaving the job pool can improve the headline rate without a hiring boom. They look at prime-age participat
Why the Labor Force Participation Rate Is at a 50-Year Low
The U.S. labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level since the 1970s, excluding the pandemic. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the June 2026 data—the rate dropped to 62.5%—and explore why workers are leaving or not returning. They discuss the role of aging demographics, the rise of long-term disability, and the mismatch between available jobs and worker skills. With job op
Why Services Inflation Is Sticking Around Longer Than Expected
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into why services inflation has been so sticky in 2026 — even as goods inflation cools. They look at a specific data point: the core PCE services index, which rose 0.3% month-over-month in May, accelerating from earlier in the year. They connect it to shelter costs, wage growth in lower-paying service industries, and what it m
The Quiet Rise of Services Inflation in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna examine a trend flying under the radar: services inflation is becoming stickier than goods inflation. With the Core PCE price index at 130.1 (up from 129.67) and the CPI at 334.0, they break down why services like rent, insurance, and healthcare are outpacing goods in price growth. Using the latest data from July 2026, they explain how this sh
How Imputed Rent Is Quietly Driving CPI Higher
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the mechanics of owners' equivalent rent — the single largest component of the CPI. With CPI at 334.0 and core CPI at 336.1 as of May 2026, they explain why over one-quarter of the index is tied to an estimated price homeowners would pay to rent their own homes. The hosts break down how the Bureau of Labor Statistics sur
How Funflation Is Reshaping the CPI in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the concept of 'funflation' — the rising cost of at-home entertainment and leisure activities. Using the latest CPI data from May 2026, they explore how categories like streaming services, gaming platforms, and home fitness equipment are seeing price increases that outpace overall inflation. They discuss why this trend i
How Home Inflation Is Reshaping the CPI in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the 'funflation' phenomenon—where staying home for entertainment is no longer a cost-saving strategy. Using fresh May 2026 CPI data, they unpack how shelter and at-home services are driving core inflation higher, while goods prices stay flat. They explore what this means for Fed policy, the consumer spending shift from e
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening Again in Mid-2026
The yield curve is steepening — but not for the reasons markets usually expect. In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the divergence between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, what the rising term premium signals about fiscal risk, and why this steepening might be more about supply than growth. With the 10-year yield at 4.57% and the 2-year at 3.69%, t
Why the Fed Still Watches Breakeven Rates Over Headline CPI
In Episode 106 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but powerful number from the latest economic data: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has slipped to 2.23 percent. While the CPI and PCE indexes still show sticky price pressures, the breakeven—a market-implied inflation expectation—has been edging down since spring. Lucas explains how the breakeven is calculated
Why Corporate Bond Spreads Are Narrowing Despite Slow Growth
Lucas and Luna unpack a curious market signal: corporate bond spreads are tightening even as GDP growth moderates and the labor market shows cracks. With the S&P 500 at 7,544 and job creation slowing to just 57,000 in June, bond markets seem to be pricing in a different reality. Lucas dives into the mechanics of credit spreads, the role of the Fed's rate path, and why investors are piling into inv
Why the Fed Is Watching CPI Break Even More Closely
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed has shifted its focus from headline CPI to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate as a better gauge of long-run inflation expectations. Using the latest data from July 2026—where breakevens have held steady at 2.25% while CPI ticked up to 334.0—they explain how this metric filters out transitory noise and sign
Why the Core PCE Tells a Different Inflation Story Than CPI
On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a key tension in today's macro data: CPI is running at 4.3% annualized over the past three months, but the Fed's preferred gauge — core PCE — is hovering just above 2.5%. They explain the structural differences between the two measures (CPI weights housing more heavily; PCE accounts for substitution effects), and walk thr
How Capacity Utilization Flags a Turn Before GDP Does
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilization—a leading indicator that often signals a turning point in the economy months before GDP data confirms it. Using the latest May 2026 data showing utilization at 76.2%, they explain why this number matters, how it connects to business investment and inflation, and what it tells us about the current cyc
What the PCE Price Index Reveals About Consumer Spending in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why the PCE price index, not CPI, is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Using fresh data from July 2026 — including a 131.5 PCE reading and a 2.25 percent breakeven rate — they break down how consumer spending patterns, substitution bias, and service-sector costs shape monetary policy. Lucas explains why the
Why the PCE Price Index Matters More Than CPI
In this milestone 100th episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a subtle but crucial shift in how inflation is measured. They explain why the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE price index over the more familiar CPI, and why that difference matters for your portfolio. Using the latest data — CPI at 334.0, Core PCE at 130.1, and the 10-year breakeven at 2.25% — they walk t
What the Rising 10-Year Breakeven Rate Tells Us Now
In episode 99 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which just hit 2.24 percent. They explain how this market-based inflation gauge works, why it matters for Fed policy, and what it signals about growth expectations in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.52 percent and core CPI still sticky at 336.1, the hosts explore whether
Why Capacity Utilisation Is a Leading Indicator for GDP
In Episode 98, Lucas and Luna unpack capacity utilisation—a leading indicator that often signals GDP shifts before the headline number does. With the latest reading at 76.2 percent, just above the pre-pandemic average, they explore why this metric matters for the second half of 2026. Lucas traces the history from the 1970s to the 2008 recession, showing how capacity utilisation peaked before each
What the Corporate Bond Spread Is Saying About Risk in 2026
With the S&P 500 near record highs and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.2 percent, you'd expect markets to be calm. But Lucas and Luna dig into a less-watched signal: the corporate bond spread. Investment-grade and high-yield spreads have been widening quietly since May, even as stocks rally. They discuss why bond markets sometimes sniff out trouble before equity markets do, what the spread betw
Why Job Openings Are Rising While Hiring Slows
This episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo digs into a puzzling disconnect in the mid-2026 labor market: job openings are creeping back above 7.6 million, yet payrolls growth has cratered to just 57,000. Lucas and Luna explore what the JOLTS data is really saying about employer hesitation, structural mismatch, and whether the Fed should be more worried about a cold labor market than hot infl
What the Industrial Production Index Reveals About GDP
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into the industrial production index and capacity utilization data released in May 2026. With industrial production rising to 102.6 and capacity utilization ticking up to 76.2%, they explore what these factory-floor metrics signal about broader GDP growth. Lucas explains why capacity utilization still sits well below the 80%
Why Business Inventories Flag GDP Next Moves
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna take a deep dive into business inventories—the often-overlooked data point that can signal the next turn in GDP growth. With total inventories climbing to $2.73 trillion in April 2026, up from $2.71 trillion in March, the hosts explore whether this accumulation is a sign of confidence or an accidental overstock that could trigger
Why Business Inventories Signal the Next Move in GDP
Lucas and Luna dig into a quietly powerful economic indicator: business inventories. While most traders obsess over CPI and payrolls, the inventory-to-sales ratio has been rising, and that matters for GDP revisions. Lucas explains why inventories added over a percentage point to Q2 growth—and why that could reverse. They look at the April data showing inventories up to $2.73 trillion, and discuss
Why Job Seekers Are Giving Up in 2026
Episode 92 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo examines the labor force participation rate, which has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years outside of Covid. Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 jobs report: payrolls grew by just 57,000, and the participation rate dropped to 62.2%. They discuss why workers are leaving the job market—structural shifts like early retirement, caregiving, and discou
What the Labor Force Participation Drop Really Means
Episode 91 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo: Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising drop in labor force participation—now at its lowest outside of the Covid era. They explore what's behind the decline: aging demographics, discouraged workers, and structural shifts in the job market. Using fresh data from the June 2026 jobs report, including the 57,000 payrolls gain and the 4.2% unemployment rat
The Labor Force Dropout Problem No One Is Talking About
The labor force participation rate just fell to its lowest level outside the Covid era, even as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into why millions of Americans have stopped looking for work entirely, what that means for GDP growth and wage pressure, and how the Fed reads a shrinking labor force differently than a rising jobless rate. They break down the participatio
The Hidden Risk of Falling Labor Force Participation
Lucas and Luna dig into a startling new data point: the labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest in 50 years outside of the COVID era. They explore what's driving workers to drop out—demographics, discouraged job seekers, and structural shifts—and why this matters more than the headline unemployment rate. With nonfarm payrolls adding just 57,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rat
What the ADP Miss Tells Us About the Jobs Market in Mid-2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest ADP private payrolls number for June 2026 — 98,000 jobs added, well below the consensus estimate of 130,000. They explore what this miss signals about the broader labor market, especially against a backdrop of steady jobless claims around 215,000 and a 4.3% unemployment rate. The conversation touches on whether
What Private Payrolls Told Us About the Jobs Market in June 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into the latest ADP private payrolls report for June 2026, which came in well below expectations at just 98,000 new jobs. They contrast this with the still-low initial jobless claims of 215,000 and a steady unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. The conversation explores whether the labor market is genuinely softening or just sen
Why Capacity Utilization Signals a Slowdown Before GDP Does
Lucas and Luna dig into a frequently overlooked economic indicator: capacity utilization. With the latest reading at 76.2%, they explain why this number matters more now than the headline GDP growth of 2.1%. They trace how capacity utilization has historically turned before recessions, compare current levels to the pre-pandemic peak, and discuss what the gap between industrial production and capac
Why the Yield Curve Steepening Matters for Growth in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals for economic growth as of July 2026. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.42% and the 2-year at 4.19%, the spread has widened significantly. They explore why this is happening—stronger growth expectations, sticky core inflation at 3.4%, and the Fed's cautious stan
Why the Yield Curve Steepening Matters for Growth in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals about the economy's trajectory. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.41% and the 2-year at 3.73%, the spread has widened to 68 basis points—a level not seen in over a year. Is this a bullish signal for growth, or a warning that inflation expectations are rising fa
What the Rising 10-Year Breakeven Rate Tells Us Now
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has edged up to 2.22 percent as of late June 2026, even as core PCE hits 3.4 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: why the bond market's implied inflation expectation remains below the Fed's target despite stubbornly high core readings. They examine what breakevens actually measure — the difference between nominal and inflation-protect
What the Yield Curve Steepening Is Telling Us About Growth
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals for the economy as of late June 2026. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.37% and the gap between 10-year and 2-year yields widening to 69 basis points, they unpack what this inversion-unto-steepening pattern historically means for GDP growth, Fed policy, and inflation. They reference the latest c
How Jobless Claims Signal a Cooling Labor Market in 2026
With initial jobless claims dropping to 215,000 in late June 2026, Lucas and Luna analyze what this key weekly indicator really says about the health of the labor market. They contrast the low claims with rising unemployment insurance rolls and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate, exploring the concept of 'labor market rotation' where workers are still finding jobs but with longer gaps between them. T
Why the Bond Market Is Pricing Lower Inflation Than CPI Shows
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: the latest CPI print shows headline inflation at 334.0, up 0.5 percent month over month, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has actually ticked down to 2.20 percent. They explore what bond investors see that the CPI basket might be missing — from shelter cost lags to the disinflationary weight of global
Core Inflation Hits 3.4 Percent What the Fed Sees
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, hit 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dig into why this number matters more than CPI, how it contradicts other inflation signals like the 10-year breakeven rate (now at 2.20%), and what it means for the interest rate outlook. They discuss the components driving the rise — particularly services inflation — and whether th
Why the PCE and CPI Gap Is Widening Again in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between the PCE price index and CPI. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023 — they explore why the Fed’s preferred gauge is running hotter than CPI, what components are driving the gap, and what it means for monetary policy. They break down the role of healthcare co
What the PPI and CPI Spread Tells Us Now
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing gap between the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index—and what that divergence signals about corporate margins, inflation pass-through, and the Federal Reserve's next move. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May 2026—the highest since October 2023—they unpack whether producers are absorbing costs or passing them along, and why the PPI-CP
What the PCE and CPI Spread Reveals About Inflation
Lucas and Luna drill into the widening gap between the PCE and CPI inflation measures. On June 25, 2026, core PCE hit 3.4 percent—its highest since October 2023—while CPI is running cooler. They explain why the divergence matters for Fed policy, bond markets, and your portfolio, and walk through how consumers and businesses are experiencing inflation differently depending on which index you use. A
Why Capacity Utilization Matters More in 2026
Lucas and Luna dive into the latest capacity utilization data — 76.2% in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13% — and explain why this often-overlooked metric is sending a nuanced signal about the economy. They contrast it with industrial production growth, rising job openings, and sticky core inflation to show how capacity constraints might be building beneath a seemingly steady expansion. With factor
Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring Higher Core Inflation
On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine a puzzling divergence: core inflation hit 3.4% in May 2026, its highest since October 2023, yet long-term bond yields have fallen. The hosts walk through the bond math, explaining why the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 13 basis points this week despite hot inflation data. They connect the dots to the 10-year breakeven infl
What the JOLTS Rebound Tells Us About the Labor Market
Lucas and Luna unpack the surprising JOLTS data from April 2026: job openings jumped to 7.6 million from 6.9 million, a 10.6 percent increase in one month. They explore what this surge means for the broader economic picture, including whether it signals genuine labor demand or noise from sectoral shifts. With layoffs still elevated in manufacturing and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent,
What the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Is Signaling Now
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.21 percent as of June 23, 2026. They explain what breakeven inflation actually measures — the difference between nominal and inflation-protected Treasury yields — and why the recent decline matters for the Fed, bond markets, and your portfolio. They compare the
Why Factory Job Cuts Are Surging Despite a Growing Economy
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the striking disconnect between strong headline GDP growth and a surge in factory job cuts that, according to S&P, approached levels not seen since the financial crisis and the pandemic. With the unemployment rate flat at 4.3% and JOLTS job openings rising to 7.6 million, why are manufacturing layoffs spiking? The hosts
Why Factory Job Cuts Are Spiking Despite a Growing Economy
Factory job cuts in June 2026 are nearing levels not seen since the financial crisis and the Covid pandemic, according to S&P. Lucas and Luna dig into why manufacturing is struggling even as the broader economy grows at a 1.6 percent annualized rate. They examine the divergence between industrial production, which is still rising modestly, and capacity utilization at 76.2 percent, which is below p
Why the Job Market Is Sending Mixed Signals in 2026
Lucas and Luna unpack the puzzling divergence between rising job openings and steady unemployment in mid-2026. With JOLTS data showing a surge to 7.6 million openings but the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3 percent, they drill into what's really happening beneath the surface. Drawing on the latest figures from May 2026 and anecdotes from states like Nevada, they explore how the labor market is reba
Why Business Inventories Are Rising Faster Than GDP in 2026
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest business inventories data, which climbed to $2.73 trillion in April 2026. They explain why inventory build-ups can signal both economic strength and impending correction, using the recent GDP-inventory divergence as a case study. With real GDP growth at just 1.6 percent annualized, the hosts discuss whether companies are overstocking or preparing for sustained de
What Average Hourly Earnings Tell Us About the Labor Market
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest average hourly earnings data and what it really means for workers and the broader economy. With private-sector earnings at $37.50 an hour in May 2026, they explore why wage growth hasn't kept pace with inflation, how the gap affects consumer spending, and what it signals for future Fed policy. They also tie in
Why Core PCE Is the Inflation Number the Fed Watches Most
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into why the Federal Reserve focuses on the core PCE price index over the more widely reported CPI. They explain the methodological differences, discuss the latest data showing core PCE at 129.6 (up from 129.32), and explore what that means for the interest rate outlook in mid-2026. The conversation also touches on how the Fed's preferred metric gives a clearer
How Business Inventories Signal GDP Growth in 2026
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the latest business inventories data and what it tells us about the direction of GDP. With total business inventories rising to $2.73 trillion in April 2026, they explore how inventory accumulation has been a key driver of recent GDP growth, even as consumer spending shows signs of slowing. They discuss the implications for the broader economy, including p
Why the PCE Price Index Matters More Than CPI
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why the PCE price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — is diverging from CPI in 2026. With PCE at 130.9 and core PCE at 129.6 in April, the hosts explain how the composition and weighting differences create a more nuanced inflation picture. They also discuss what the 10-year breakeven rate's drop to 2.25 percen
What Business Inventories Tell Us About the GDP Trajectory
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into a fresh angle on economic indicators: the role of business inventories in shaping GDP growth. With new data showing total business inventories reaching $2.73 trillion as of April 2026, and real GDP growth slowing to 1.6 percent, the hosts explore how inventory builds and draws can mask underlying economic momentum. They discuss why business inventories are
What the GDP-CPI Gap Really Means for Investors
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack a subtle but powerful signal in today's macro data: the widening gap between nominal GDP growth and the CPI. Nominal GDP is running at about 5.0% annualized in early 2026, while CPI inflation has moderated to around 2.5%. That spread — roughly 2.5 percentage points — represents real economic growth, but the composition matt
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening in 2026
In this June 2026 episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the Treasury yield curve is steepening even as the Fed holds rates steady. With the 2-year at 3.66%, the 10-year at 4.45%, and the 30-year at 4.90%, the spread between short and long-term bonds is the widest in years. They explore what this signals about growth expectations, inflation, and the new Fed chair's first meeting. Plus, a look at how t
What Business Inventories Say About GDP Trajectory
In episode 60 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into a key but often overlooked data point: total business inventories. With inventories hitting over $2.7 trillion in April 2026, they explain how stockpiling signals business confidence and future GDP revisions. Drawing on the latest data, Lucas shows how the inventory-to-sales ratio has crept up from pre-pandemic levels, hin
How JOLTS Data Is Confusing the Job Market Picture
Lucas and Luna dive into the latest JOLTS data from April 2026, which showed a surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million—even as hiring remained flat and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3 percent. They explore what this divergence means for the Fed, wage growth, and whether the labor market is tightening or loosening. Lucas explains why the ratio of openings to unemployed workers matters mo
Capacity Utilization vs Consumer Spending Divergence in 2026
In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a growing divergence in the macro data: capacity utilization is ticking higher while consumer spending shows signs of strain. With industrial production rising but jobless claims creeping up, they ask whether this is a signal of resilience or a warning of a slowdown. They dive into the latest capacity utilization reading o
How Capacity Utilization Signals the Next Recession
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilization, one of the most overlooked leading indicators. With the latest reading at 76.2 percent in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13 percent, they explore why this slow creep matters more than the headline GDP or jobs numbers. They trace the history of capacity utilization as a recession predictor, look at how it behaved before the 2008 and 2020
Why Jobless Claims Are Rising Despite a Growing Economy
The economy is growing, unemployment is low, and stocks are near all-time highs. So why are initial jobless claims rising? In Episode 56 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest claims data — 229,000 for the week of June 6, up from 225,000 the prior week and 212,000 a year ago. They explore the gap between headline GDP and the real economy: layoffs are ticking up in
Recommended
Solved Murders - True Crime Stories
紐約鳥｜New York Aperture
Stand In The Circle
Doctor Zhivago Slow Read
The Swerve Podcast: Obscure Topics | Conspiracy Theories
The Young and Called Podcast .
Conspiracy Files with Paige Carter
World News Tonight with David Muir
Bad Friends
Iran War Daily
MosaLingua Language Lab
Grind Hard Mix Show
