The Flip Side
This podcast series features a lively debate between two of Barclays’ Research analysts taking opposing viewpoints on timely topics of importance to economies and businesses around the globe. By hearing arguments and insights on both sides, listeners gain a greater understanding of the economic implications of polarizing issues.
Episodes
Physical AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement?
Artificial intelligence is moving off the screen and into the real economy. For investors, that shifts the focus from software productivity to how labour, capital and markets themselves could be repriced.With machines, such as humanoid robots, increasingly taking on physical tasks, from driving and cleaning to providing healthcare, the question isn’t just how much productivity improves. It’s who b
Do high gas prices change how Americans buy cars?
Gasoline prices in the United States have risen to over $4 per gallon since the Iran war began in February. When combined with higher car prices, higher interest rates and rising auto loan delinquencies – not to mention other affordability concerns consumers face – might consumers change their car buying preferences?In this episode of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Dan L
$1 trillion AI capex by 2028: Justified or inflated?
Since 2022, AI capital investment has skyrocketed. But can AI capex reach $1 trillion by 2028, as our Equity Research analysts forecast? Labs are reporting rapid growth, and signs show AI demand spreading beyond the hyperscalers to sovereigns and non-tech enterprises. Yet practical barriers such as power supply, infrastructure timelines and the need for clear ROI could but the brakes on capex.In e
Should alternative asset managers be trading like software?
Private credit has been a powerful growth engine for alternative asset managers, with business development corporations (BDCs) playing a central role. As AI adoption accelerates and software business models come under pressure, investors are concerned with how exposed these managers are to software and other tech-enabled business models that could be disrupted. In recent weeks, investors have sold
Is US equities exceptionalism finally cracking?
After more than a decade of US equity dominance, international markets made a rare comeback in 2025. Europe, Japan, Emerging Markets and the UK outperformed, the majority of global equity flows went outside the US, and investors began to revisit long‑standing assumptions around US equities exceptionalism.Was this simply a cyclical reset after years of US outperformance, or the start of a more dura
Will the US consumer hold up in 2026?
The US consumer showed notable resilience over the holiday period, with retail sales and e-commerce activity remaining robust. Yet, beneath the surface, sentiment surveys signal caution, as consumer confidence hovers near multi-year lows. Against this backdrop, the primary question is whether strong spending can persist as households navigate inflation fatigue, policy changes, and widening economi
UK Autumn Budget: Success or shortfall?
The UK’s fiscal policy faced a pivotal moment as Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her second Autumn Budget, confronting market and political pressures. The budget builds fiscal headroom mainly through tax rises deferred until 2028, sparking debate over its credibility.Markets responded favourably, with gilt yields steady and the FTSE 250 gaining ground since. Yet sentiment remains fragile amid o
Is Japan doubling down on Abenomics, or redefining it?
Japan’s economic policy stands at a crossroads as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi takes office, with the legacy of Abenomics challenged by shifting market and political realities.The yen has halved against the dollar since 2012, superlong Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are at record highs, and demographic changes have reshaped demand for government bonds, setting the stage for a global debate
Is the AI investment cycle a sign of history repeating?
Artificial intelligence has become the defining investment theme of the current market cycle, with capital expenditure on AI infrastructure reaching unprecedented levels. Hyperscalers have announced nearly $400 billion in capex for this year alone, and forecasts suggest annual increases of 30% in the years ahead. As investors weigh the promise of this transformative technology against the risks of
US bank regulatory reform: Capital relief or systemic risk?
In June, US banking regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, proposed changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), a regulatory measure used to ensure financial stability by limiting excessive leverage.Despite expectations that easing the SLR rules will unlock lending and liquidity in the US economy, concerns remain over potential risks to financial stability. While large US banks tend to mai
Are oil markets set to heat up or burn out?
Despite widespread expectations of weakening demand for oil, market fundamentals are showing signs of tightening. A slowdown in US shale production and resilient demand across emerging economies could point to a potential shift in the price of oil.When it comes to demand, elevated refining margins and unexpectedly low inventory levels suggest that actual demand may be outpacing modelled projection
Do the risks of NBFI lending outweigh the opportunities?
Commercial & Industrial loans from banks are on the decline, and lending to Main Street and consumers from non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) is on the rise. But here’s the paradox: traditional banks are fuelling this rise of NBFIs by lending capital to what were once their competitors. While this systemic shift plays out among lenders, there are questions about whether post-global f
Is the US bond market starting to rebel?
US Treasury bonds are widely regarded as the “world’s risk-free asset.” However, in recent weeks, global investors have increasingly shied away from 30-year US bonds, opting for flexible, shorter-term maturities, due to a combination of growing interest rate risk, sticky inflation and economic uncertainty.As a result, 30-year interest rates are within striking distance of their highest level since
Is this the end of the dollar as we know it?
Following the 2024 US election, predictions of a dollar rally were easy to come by, based on the presumption that President Trump would implement his proposed trade agenda. While Liberation Day and subsequent trade negotiations see some of those expectations realised, the dollar rally hasn’t materialised. In fact, the narrative has turned to widespread concern that the age of the “mighty dollar” i
Will tariffs trigger a recession?
The course of the US economy has changed since the beginning of April, when tariffs were introduced – and subsequently paused. This, combined with reduced immigration and already waning consumer and business confidence in the face of growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, raises the question: have these tariffs introduced the possibility of a recession in 2025?In this episode, Global Head
Is there too much hype for AI and the hyperscalers?
AI has been a major focal point for investors as tech companies compete for an edge in the race to deliver on its promises.The hyperscalers – tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta – have invested heavily in developing massive data centres, spending billions to stay ahead. But could DeepSeek, the Chinese startup, force a fundamental rethink of what’s required for AI to advance? In e
Will European equities outperform the US in 2025?
Europe is the top performing region year to date in equity markets. Can this outperformance be sustained given the Stoxx 600 has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 over the last 25 years? Even backing out Big Tech from indices, European stocks are significantly discounted compared to their American peers.In episode 68 of The Flip Side, Venu Krishna, Head of US Equity Strategy & Global
Does inflation still matter?
Inflation has been a critical focus for investors in recent years. US headline PCE and CPI peaked at 7.2% and 9.1% in mid-2022, but with levels coming down toward the 2% Federal Reserve target rate, is it still worth the attention? Or can investors go back to more or less ignoring inflation, as they did pre-pandemic?In Episode 67 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Mike Pon
Will Trumponomics be incremental or transformational?
US President-elect Donald Trump has indicated his incoming administration will make major policy changes on everything from tariffs to taxes, all the the potential to transform the global economy. Will Trump's policies lead to sweeping economic change or will the effects be incremental? In episode 66 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Head of Research and Global Chairman of Research, Ajay Rajadhyaksha
Is China’s economic stimulus a game-changer or window dressing?
Interest rate cuts, reduced down-payment requirements for mortgages and media reports of the re-capitalisation of banks – are just a handful of the policy changes the Chinese government announced in its recent stimulus package to get the $18trn economy moving.Chinese financial markets have initially reacted positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock exchange soaring on the n
Does market volatility risk a US hard landing?
Recent volatility in global financial markets has left analysts and investors speculating whether it is being driven by technical factors or more fundamental shifts indicating a looming US recession.Inflation, rising US unemployment and heightened geopolitical tensions are considered major catalysts for the volatility. The unease in markets was exacerbated by the unwind of the yen carry trade and
Will investors benefit from the 'equitification' of credit markets?
Corporate bond and loan markets have traditionally been rigid when compared to equity markets, characterised by low liquidity, low trading volumes and higher transaction costs. In recent years, the explosion of credit ETFs and the growth of private credit markets has meant all that is changing, causing what our Research analysts call the ‘equitification’ of credit.In episode 63 of The Flip Side Gl
Can consumers curb their carbon addiction?
US carbon emissions are down c.20% from their peak over the past 20 years, thanks primarily to efficiency gains, such as increased miles per gallon for cars, switching to LED lights and moving towards high-efficiency boilers.Further emission reductions will require more changes from consumers on a number of fronts, such as switching from fossil fuels to electricity for cars, home heating, and
Can the Fed take credit for declining inflation?
Inflation in the US peaked at around 9% in 2022, and by January 2024, CPI inflation had fallen to 3.1%. This dramatic reduction was achieved without triggering a widely expected recession. Does the Fed’s interest rate hiking cycle deserve credit for this correction, or were other market forces responsible for the generally positive economic outcome?In episode 61 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Re
Can AI solve the modern productivity puzzle?
In episode 60 of The Flip Side, Hiral Patel, Head of Sustainable & Thematic Research, talks to Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research, about the extent to which and pace at which AI could boost productivity levels globally.
They explore the potential costs and benefits to businesses and societies, as well as the range of public policy changes related to education, taxation, antitrust and mo
Is US debt reaching crisis levels?
Warnings that rising US national debt levels are reaching a crisis point have waxed and waned for decades. In Flip Side podcast, our analysts discuss urgent questions about whether the current US government debt is sustainable.
Are equity markets out of sync with the economy?
Stock prices across the developed world are generally higher this year, after falling sharply in 2022. Inflation and the pace of interest rate hikes have slowed. Yet equity markets have proven volatile in recent months, with big positive and negative swings that have not always correlated with the latest economic news.
In episode 58 of The Flip Side, Jeff Meli, Global Head of Research, and Ajay R
Are US house prices set to fall?
US housing has been a hot topic since the onset of COVID, with a surge in both home buying and prices. But the housing market may be set for a major correction.
Jeff Meli, Global Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, unpack what's next for the sector, and debate whether the US housing market is set for a major correction.
Will Electric Vehicles Break the Electric Grid?
Electric vehicles are touted as a way to help reduce CO2 emissions, but can power grids cope with the corresponding electricity demand? Listen to Barclays Research analysts debate the challenges.
Can the US economy outrun a recession?
In episode 55 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni discuss the warning signs for a potential US recession and whether it can be avoided or if a new cycle is already taking shape.
Is the bank crisis over or is more fallout ahead?
The recent banking turmoil has exposed a longer-term challenge for the sector: the very nature of systemic risk is changing as runs on deposits become easier.
Depositors can access their money quickly and easily through advanced digital tools, and social media platforms allow for influence and opinion to spread broadly at pace.
In episode 54 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli an
What Are the Trade-Offs of Transition? (Live from ESG Conference in NYC)
At Barclays’ inaugural ESG Conference in New York City, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Senior Energy Research Analyst Lydia Rainforth recorded Episode 53 of The Flip Side live, debating whether ESG investing is helping or hindering the energy transition.
Will inflation stall at a high level or decline much further?
Is the US economy on-track for inflation to fall back in line with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target by the end of 2023? Our research analysts share their views on inflation in the latest episode of The Flip Side.
Will the Fed crash the US into recession in 2023?
Many forecasters, including our own economists, are expecting a US recession in 2023, driven by the rapid and ongoing hiking cycle initiated by the US Federal Reserve as it attempts to get a grip on persistently high inflation.
As the US economy slows, with housing sales down 30-35% from their peak and increasing reports of layoffs, some are questioning whether the record-setting pace of hikes is
Will high energy prices fan the flames of recession?
Barclays Research is forecasting recessions in the US, the UK and Europe, driven in part by high energy prices. Will pressure from high energy costs continue to weigh on economic activity or will it ebb as growth slows?
What’s behind the recent UK market turmoil?
After the new UK government’s ‘mini-budget’ was announced, select UK markets slumped. In episode 49 of The Flip Side, Barclays Research analysts debate whether new fiscal policies or other market forces were the trigger.
Is this a make-or-break moment for ESG investing?
ESG investors face rising challenges to implement effective strategies due to increasing complexity and a lack of uniform standards. Our Research analysts debate how ESG investing may evolve in episode 48 of The Flip Side.
Is a new era of instability ahead?
Global economies are facing volatility and uncertainty after nearly 30 years of relative stability. Our analysts debate whether it's the end of an economic era.
Are consumers pulling back?
Consumer spending has been a bright spot amidst a range of shocks to the economy, but will they continue to spend? Our analysts debate.
As the private credit market grows will the risks increase?
Given the rapid growth of the private credit market, Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate the tradeoffs issuers and investors may face and whether the benefits outweigh the risks for both - and the wider economy.
Should corporate purpose shift from shareholder to stakeholder?
Government, social and corporate forces are converging to redefine corporate purpose. Listen to Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Professor James C. Spindler discuss the case for and against stakeholder capitalism.
Will the Russia-Ukraine conflict trigger a global recession?
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has far-reaching implications for markets and economies. Our Research analysts debate whether a global recession is among them.
Is more or less volatility ahead for US equity markets?
January was a volatile month for US equities. In this episode, our Research analysts debate whether this trend will persist in the weeks and months ahead.
Has the Fed fallen behind the curve on inflation?
The US Federal Reserve recently turned hawkish on inflation. Our Research analysts debate whether economic conditions justify the shift.
Will COVID-19 pills be a game changer for the economy?
Oral anti-viral COVID-19 treatments have performed well in clinical trials, and approval for use is expected soon. What does this mean for the global economy?
Is the US ready for a carbon tax?
Economists view a carbon tax as an effective solution to lower emissions, yet the United States has not implemented one. Has the time come? Jeff Meli and MIT Professor Deborah J. Lucas discuss.
Will US investment in human infrastructure drive economic growth?
The US Congress is negotiating a multi-trillion dollar spending bill to invest huge sums in human infrastructure. But will doing so deliver economic returns?
China's regulatory reforms: Warranted, or a step too far?
Regulatory changes in China are affecting industries and global markets. Research analysts Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Avanti Save debate the policies’ merits and motivations.
Are corporate bond valuations disconnected from fundamentals?
Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate whether near record high corporate bond valuations have come unmoored from market fundamentals.
Is rising inflation here to stay?
Research analysts Jeff Meli and Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate whether the recent spike in US inflation data is a temporary blip or poses a sustained threat.
Is the US infrastructure bill worth its high price tag?
Research analysts Jeff Meli and Jonathan Millar debate the necessity and merits of the US administration’s proposed $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan.
Are financial assets headed into bubble territory?
Research analysts Jeff Meli and Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate which financial assets are becoming bubbles that investors should be wary of now.
Will retail investors continue to upend the stock market?
Jeff Meli and Ryan Preclaw debate the long-term implications of recent retail trading on the stock market, ranging from portfolio strategies to regulation.
Will COVID hurt or help long-term growth?
As 2020 comes to a close, Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Christian Keller debate about the prospects for short- and long-term economic growth post-COVID.
Does the US need another round of fiscal stimulus?
In the latest episode of The Flip Side, Head of Research, Jeff Meli, and Head of Macro Research, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, discuss whether factors such as the distribution of the recovery to date, the appetite for increasing national debt and the looming possibility of a vaccine warrant further fiscal stimulus to bolster economic recovery in the US.
Should the US government play such an outsized role in housing finance?
Head of Research Jeff Meli and MIT Finance Professor Deborah Lucas debate whether the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are necessary for a smoothly functioning US mortgage market.
Will the dominance of megacities survive COVID-19?
The pandemic has highlighted numerous risks to living and working in megacities around the world and now calls into question whether the long-term trend toward urbanization will be reversed. Should this trend come to fruition, there could be profound effects not just on corporate real estate, but on residential too, as the relationship between workers and their office locations is reconsidered.
Will ESG investing be a force for positive change?
Jeff Meli and Zoso Davies debate whether the lack of uniformity in ESG scoring is limiting the impact that investors intend to have in transforming companies’ operations to be more sustainable and improving societal outcomes.
Navigating the Virus Economy: How much will COVID-19 change the global economy?
Barclays Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Global Head of Economics Research Christian Keller debate the longer term, lasting effects of the pandemic on the global economy - from de-globalisation, to mobility and agglomeration and the rising dominance of market power in some industries. For more insights: barclays.com/ib
Navigating the Virus Economy: Is the stock market too optimistic?
Special guest economist Professor Robert Shiller joins Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli to debate whether equity markets are overvalued and what role long-term investing should play during a crisis. For more insights: barclays.com/ib
Navigating the Virus Economy: Is inflation or deflation ahead?
Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Marvin Barth debate whether to expect inflation or deflation in the recovery period after lockdowns are lifted. For more insights from our experts: barclays.com/ib
Navigating the virus economy: Will the global recovery be a quick bounce or slow grind?
Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Head of Economics Research Christian Keller debate between about how long it may take for government interventions to be effective in restarting the global economic engine.
Navigating the Virus Economy: Will the euphoria in credit markets last?
Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate about whether the credit rally will last and how effective the US government's support facilities will be. For more insights from our experts: barclays.com/ib.
Navigating the Virus Economy: Will the CARES Act stimulus package save the US economy?
Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Michael Gapen discuss the most important provisions of the CARES Act and debate whether the plan will provide enough near-term stimulus to individuals, small businesses and large corporations to save the US economy. For more insights from our experts: barclays.com/ib
Navigating the Virus Economy: Credit markets under pressure – are they about to crack?
Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate whether recent stresses in short-dated credit markets, in conjunction with severe downgrades of companies from investment grade to high yield, could cause credit markets to crack? For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Will the coronavirus pandemic tip the world into a recession?
Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays Head of Macro Research, debate to what extent the economic risks posed by the coronavirus will affect global markets and whether the disruption will be enough to cause a global recession. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Planes, politics & viruses: Emerging risks to US growth?
Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Michael Gapen, Barclays Head of US Economics Research, debate the degree to which new risks – the issues at Boeing with the 737 Max, the rise of the Novel Coronavirus and the inherent uncertainty of the US presidential nomination process – may affect the US growth outlook and business confidence. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Are the stars aligning for the UK to thrive after Brexit?
Marvin Barth, Head of FX & EM Marco Research, and Fabrice Montagné, Chief UK Economist, debate whether a weakened global economy, geopolitical shifts, and the UK’s technological prowess are combining to offer a more favorable backdrop for Brexit negotiations ahead. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Is regulation the problem or solution to address repo market volatility?
Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays Head of Macro Research, debate whether enhanced regulation of the banking system contributed to volatility in the repo market. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Do negative interest rates help or hinder the economy?
In an effort to spur growth, central banks in Europe and Japan have kept interest rates negative for years. Barclays analysts Jeff Meli and Zoso Davies debate whether or not this monetary policy is working. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Alternative meat - The future of food or just a fad?
Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Ben Theurer, Barclays Head of Latin American Equity Research and Americas Agribusiness analyst, debate whether alternative meat will be a real game changer for the food and meat industries, or just another fringe product that will fade over time. The analysts also weigh in on factors driving the adoption of alternative meat products, such as taste, health
Can the world be less reliant on oil?
Global oil demand currently stands at an all-time high. Barclays Research analysts debate whether innovation and regulation can transition the world to a low carbon economy quickly enough to stem climate change. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
US Fed rate cut - wise economic decision or untimely mistake?
Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Michael Gapen debate the merits of the Fed's July 2019 rate cut on the latest episode of The Flip Side. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Goodbye globalisation, hello automation: Time to rethink emerging markets?
Technology has been a catalyst of globalisation in many emerging market economies. But could those tech advances now threaten EM development & related investment strategies? Barclays Research analysts Marvin Barth and Andreas Kolbe debate. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Does the US-China trade war pose a material risk to the US economy?
Trade tensions between the US & China continue to rise. Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate what’s at stake on this episode of The Flip Side. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Big tech: Healthy or harmful to competition?
Large technology companies like FAANG have amassed market share in the retail and media sectors. Is their dominance enhancing or stifling competition? Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Jim Martin debate. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Is market power weighing on the US economy?
Since 2000, fewer and fewer companies have come to control larger and larger shares of the market in a wide variety of industries. In fact, 75% of US industries have experienced a rise in concentration over that period. What does that mean for competition across the economy and in individual sectors, and is it detrimental or beneficial to the economy? For more insights from our experts: https://ba
Rising US corporate debt: Real threat or overblown hype?
Has a decade of growth in the US corporate credit market ballooned to the point of bursting? Brad Rogoff and Shobhit Gupta debate what factors underlie the next potential credit market downturn.
Did the US corporate tax cut stimulate the economy?
At the end of 2017, US President Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into law. For corporations, this meant a significant reduction in the tax rate from 35% to 21%, which lawmakers claimed would boost business investment domestically, bring cash held overseas back to the US and create jobs. The question is, did the tax cut achieve all it set out to, and as a result stimulate the US economy? For
Brexit's warning shot: the beginning of the end for globalisation?
In the fifth episode of The Flip Side podcast series, Marvin Barth, Barclays Head of FX and Emerging Markets Macro Research, sits down with Fabrice Montagné, Barclays Chief UK Economist, to debate how Brexit represents de-globalisation in Europe, assess where Brexit might lead and discuss what lessons the UK's exit from the EU might offer for other countries grappling with similar phenomenon. For
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