Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth
The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, hosted by Taylor Holiday and Richard Gaffin of Common Thread Collective, provides insights for modern DTC brands navigating the post-2020 ecommerce landscape. It covers macro issues affecting ecommerce and offers strategies for scaling and sustaining an online business. The podcast draws on the hosts' experience across a portfolio of growing DTC businesses.
Episodes
The Measurement Gap: iROAS, Geo Holdouts, and Progressive Truth
Your platform ROAS is not the truth. It's a story your attribution tool tells you. Luke Austin, breaks down exactly how CTC approaches marketing measurement — and why the gap between platform-reported numbers and actual incremental revenue is where most brands make their worst capital allocation decisions.This is Part 3 of the CTC Canon Series — our codified methodology across the core discipl
The Modeling System That Powers 30%+ Revenue Growth
Most brands forecast from gut feel and ROAS. CTC runs on four interlocked proprietary models that produce a daily P&L forecast with 3.1% accuracy across more than $3 billion in GMV. In Part 2 of the Canon series, Luke Austin breaks down each model, how they connect, and what a Profit Engineer actually does with themTopics covered:Why a single ROAS number can't run a businessThe Spending Po
Why Ritsu Switched Email Platforms Mid-Growth (And What It Actually Took)
Every dollar spent on SaaS is a dollar that does not go into ads.In this episode, Luke Austin sits down with Gil Dyen, Head of Marketing at Rutsu Barefoot, to walk through a real email and SMS platform migration to Omnisend — what drove the decision, what the process actually looked like, and how a 60,000-contact list got fully migrated in under 30 days with less than a working day of direct invol
How We Forecast $4B in GMV to 3% Accuracy
Every forecast is wrong. The question is whether yours is useful.Luke Austin, walks through the CTC Methodology series opener: a complete operating model for making profit predictable across ecommerce brands. This is not a spreadsheet. It is a four-step system built on 12 years of experience and $4 billion in GMV, combining proprietary data science with daily operational discipline to hit 3% forec
How One Methodology Runs 170+ Brands
What if your agency published every opinion, every framework, and every strategy they use to grow your brand? That's exactly what CTC just did.The Canon is a decade of ecommerce methodology distilled into seven categories: technology, forecasting, marketing measurement, Meta advertising, Google advertising, email strategy, and creative strategy. It's not a pitch deck. It's the actual o
12 Years of Agency Knowledge in One Document
Taylor Holiday reveals the system CTC built to deploy 12 years of ecommerce knowledge across every brand they manage. From AI-powered scouting reports for his son's Little League team to the Canon, CTC's institutional playbook, and the MCP database now free for every client.Topics covered:How AI + unique knowledge + the right data creates competitive advantageThe Canon: CTC's 12-year m
Offer-Market Fit: Why 7-Figure Brands Hit a Wall
Joy Sharma runs CTC's PE7 program for mid to high 7-figure brands pushing toward 8 figures. His claim: if you're stuck at a growth plateau and you've tried more creative, new ad structures, and different platforms, we can tell you what's wrong without even looking at your account. The answer is offer-market fit.In this episode, Joy breaks down why Facebook's auction forces you
The Branded Ads System Behind 170+ Ecommerce Brands
How do you build branded ads fast enough to find winners at scale? Nisha Fermawi, Senior Branded Ads Manager at CTC, breaks down the exact system that delivers ad plans in 24 hours, moves to production in a week, and uses performance data to drive every creative decision.In This Episode:The full branded ads pipeline: kickoff to live ads in 10 business daysWhy performance data runs creative strateg
What a Profit Engineer Actually Does All Day
What does a CTC Profit Engineer actually do all day? Brian Sakansky, Profit Engineer Manager at CTC, breaks down the exact daily, weekly, and monthly cadence behind managing 7, 8, and 9-figure eCommerce brands. From Monday's plan reset to Friday's close-the-loop review, this is the operating system behind the Profit Engine.In this episode:The weekly rhythm: reset, diagnose, align, ship, cl
Why Most Founders Set the Wrong Growth Goals
Randall Thompson built an ecommerce brand from scratch, scaled it to eight figures, and sold it. Along the way, he learned that the goals he set had almost nothing to do with what his business could actually deliver.In this episode, Randall joins Richard to break down what it means to understand your business's DNA, the non-negotiable metrics (COGS, repeat rate, margins) that determine what
Join Our Growth Mastermind (Here's What's Inside)
Growth MastermindWhat if you could get weekly strategy sessions with a senior CTC profit engineer, full Statlas access, and a private cohort of brands at your stage, all for $500/month?That's the Next Level Growth Mastermind.Richard breaks down exactly what's inside, who it's built for, and five real insights that came out of our pilot cohort sessions, including why offer-market fit ma
We Tested AppLovin Discovery for 4 Months. Here's What Happened.
CTC's AppLovin specialist Connaugh is back four months after our first episode on the platform to break down what's actually working. Discovery campaigns are averaging 284% incrementality, 45-60 second video creative is where the spend goes, and the tactical playbook is starting to take shape.If you're running an 8-figure ecommerce brand and haven't tested AppLovin yet, this episod
Consumer Confidence vs Rising Oil Prices
In this episode, Steve Rekuc breaks down the latest DTC Index findings showing 14.5% revenue growth year-over-year, even as brands face margin pressure. We dive into Mother's Day performance data and what it signals for Memorial Day and Father's Day spending patterns.Topics Covered:14.5% revenue increase with only 2% AMER decline Mother's Day performance and Memorial Day predictions
What We Learned at the 2026 Meta Summit
We just got back from the 2026 Meta Performance Marketing Summit, and the biggest takeaway wasn't a single feature or tool. It was the realization that the brands growing the fastest right now are operating in two completely different worlds at the same time.Luke Austin breaks down everything we saw, heard, and learned at this year's summit. From Meta's push to make conversion lift stu
Stop Gambling on Creative - Use This 6-Pillar Assessment Framework
In this episode, Richard sits down with Ian Jordan, VP of Private Equity Partnerships at CTC, to unveil our brand new Creative Assessment Quiz. This 6-pillar framework helps 7-9 figure brands move from placing bets to making strategic investments in creative production.Key Topics Covered:The 6 pillars of creative production assessmentWhy volume and velocity create more shots on goalHow Meta's
TikTok Shop, Incrementality, and the New Growth Playbook
Every satisfied customer creates demand you never see. It spills across Meta, Amazon, TikTok Shop, and your DTC site, and most brands have no system for tracking it, let alone capturing it.In this episode, Luke Austin introduces the ecommerce Demand Cascade: a framework for understanding how demand flows across media channels and sales channels, and why optimizing just one leaves money everywhere
Why Your Ads Aren't Working
You're spending $20 per ad and it's not working. You think you need more creative volume. But the real problem? You don't have your customer journey figured out.In this episode, Joy Sharma breaks down why 7-figure brands get stuck, and it's almost never a creative problem. He shares the exact formula CTC uses to diagnose and fix growth for emerging brands, and why testing inside ma
Why Meta's AI Has No Point of View
In today's episode Taylor walks through a live Statlas demo showing why AI tools hallucinate when they lack business context. He shows how the same data produces wildly different (and wrong) recommendations without a methodology layer, then demonstrates how CTC's hierarchy of metrics framework transforms AI from unreliable to actionable.This episode also covers why Meta's Advantage+ to
Enterprise Attribution for 7-Figure Brands
Taylor sits down with Austin Harrison, founder and CEO of Northbeam, to announce an official partnership between CTC and Northbeam. After years of public debate about attribution, they've found common ground: bringing enterprise-grade measurement to 7-figure DTC brands.In this episode, Taylor and Austin discuss their history, what's evolved in measurement, and how CTC will deliver Northbea
From Flipping Houses to 20,000+ SKUs: How Lighthouse Co Built a Multi-Brand Empire
What happens when a home flipper and an aspiring doctor decide to start selling lights during a pandemic? You get Lighthouse Co a curated lighting and home goods brand with 20,000+ SKUs, serving designers and homeowners across Canada and the US.In this episode, Brian Sakansky sits down with Lighthouse Co co-founders Sarah and Jason at CTC HQ in Southern California. They break down the real story b
Q1 2026 vs 2025: What Changed in Ecommerce (The Data)
Steve Rekuc, Director of Data at Common Thread Collective, joins Richard to break down the Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 year-over-year data from the DTC Index.The headline: Meta spend is up 25% year over year while ROAS only degraded 3%. Google ROAS actually increased 12% despite higher spend. The platforms are getting more elastic.In this episode:Total revenue up 13.6% YoY with more coming from returning c
You Don't Want Strategy. You Want an Outcome.
The number one pain point brands bring to us: "My current agency gives me execution, not strategy."Luke and Richard, break down why that complaint, while valid, doesn't go far enough.Most brands are stuck in one of two broken relationships:An agency that only executes (you tell them what to do, they do it)A consultant that only strategizes (they give you a plan and leave)Neither owns
How the Prophit Engine Actually Works (Full Walkthrough)
Taylor and Luke, walk through exactly how the Prophit Engine system enables one person to deliver the work and outcome of three.This isn't about replacing people with AI. It's about what happens when you combine 12 years of methodology, a purpose-built data infrastructure, and an operator empowered by enterprise-grade tooling.In this roundtable replay, Taylor demos:How data infrastructure
How We Diagnose Every Ecommerce Problem (The Hierarchy of Metrics)
Tony Chopp, walks through the Hierarchy of Metrics — the framework our Prophit Engineers use to diagnose problems and take action for 170+ ecommerce brands.In this episode, Tony and Richard break down a real brand example in Statlas, showing how you go from a contribution margin miss all the way down to a specific campaign adjustment in Google Ads.The hierarchy:Business-level metrics (revenue, con
The Right Way to Use AI in Your Ad Creative
AI is changing how ecommerce brands produce creative. But most brands are using it wrong.They're generating entire ads with AI and wondering why performance drops. Or they're ignoring it entirely and falling behind on volume.In this episode, we break down how to actually use AI in your creative workflow without sacrificing the authenticity that drives results. The brands winning with AI aren't rep
Why CTC Bought Into Commerce Roundtable
Common Thread Collective is now an owner in Commerce Roundtable. In this episode, Taylor with Jimmy Kim, founder of Commerce Roundtable, to tell the full story of how this partnership came together and why in-person events matter more than ever.Jimmy shares the origin story of Commerce Roundtable, from a 50-person CBD roundtable in a San Diego office in 2019 to a community-driven ecommerce event w
5 Questions That Drive 80% of Your Growth
Every ecommerce growth team spends the majority of their time answering the same five questions. The problem? Most brands answer them with disconnected tools, siloed teams, and spreadsheets that have nothing to do with the actual marketing levers they can pull.In this episode, Luke breaks down the five questions that account for 80% of your marketing team's work - and how the Prophit Engine an
The Growth System for Brands Under $1M
CTC has never had a service offering for brands below seven figures. That changes today.Prophit Engine Lite is for any Ecommerce brand with established revenue below $1M annually. If you're past the startup phase, running ads, generating sales, and trying to figure out how to grow profitably, this is built for you.In this episode, Richard walks through exactly what PE Lite includes:Step 1: Con
In-House Creator, Outsourced Management: The New Creative Model
Most brands are stuck in a cycle: source UGC creators, send product, hope the content is usable, repeat. The hit rate is low, the management is painful, and the content lacks consistency.Adrianne breaks down a different model: a dedicated in-house creator, fully managed by CTC.What this episode covers:Why one dedicated creator outperforms a rotating roster of 50 UGC creatorsHow CTC matches creator
The Ruthless Forecast: How We Hold 7-Figure Brands Accountable
Most 7-figure brands are stuck in the same loop. They've outgrown guesswork but can't justify a $15K/month agency retainer. Every dollar has to work, and there's no infrastructure to know if it is.Joy Sharma breaks down how the Prophit Engine system adapts for brands in the 7-figure range.What this episode covers:Why "just use AI" doesn't replace the PE - the difference b
Data + Methodology + Operator: How We Build Capacity
Every brand wants more capacity from their growth team. Most try to solve it by adding people or plugging data into ChatGPT. Neither works.In this episode, Luke breaks down the 3-layer infrastructure behind the Prophit Engine that actually creates capacity:Layer 1: The DatabaseOrder-level, finance, marketing, and cost data aggregated in one place. Living in the context of your targets and forecast
The 3 Accountability Rules That Drive 108% YoY Growth
Most brands have a media buyer, a strategist, and a creative lead. Everyone's doing their job. Everyone has a dashboard. But when you ask "are we on plan this week?" you get three different answers.In the episode Luke breaks down the three pillars of accountability inside the Prophit Engine:We create the forecast AND execute against it. No handoffs between planning and doing.One pers
How the Prophit Engine Creates Total Clarity
Most ecommerce brands are making slower, worse decisions than they realize, and it's not because of bad people. It's because of a broken structure.In this episode, Richard sits down with Luke and Tony to break down one of the most important benefits of the Prophit Engine: total clarity. From fragmented data and siloed teams to a single operator with a full end-to-end view of the business,
The Profit Engine Explained: How It Works & What It Does
What if one person could replace your entire ecommerce growth team, and get better results? In this episode Richard and Luke break down exactly how the Profit Engine works and why it's changing the way DTC brands scale.Luke walks through the four core functions every ecommerce brand needs — forecasting & target setting, creative strategy, media measurement, and Meta media buying — and expl
Why We Built the Prophit Engine: Who Is It For?
Common Thread Collective just launched the Prophit Engine to the public—and in this episode, Richard and Taylor break down what it is, why it exists, and how it helps DTC brands forecast more accurately, grow contribution margin, and simplify their growth stack for less cost. You’ll hear how CTC is combining data + methodology + AI-enabled tooling into a system (and a new “Profit Engineer” role) t
The Rise of SEANs
In this episode, Richard and Taylor Holiday discuss the rise of the “SEANs” — the Software-Enabled AgeNcy — and why it represents a fundamental shift in how eCommerce brands will build growth teams going forward.Taylor explains how traditional agencies struggle to operationalize institutional knowledge across individuals, leading to inconsistent execution and diffused accountability. The solution?
Turning Incrementality Tests Into Action That Makes You Money
Incrementality tests are “in”… but the real problem is what you do after the read.In this episode, Taylor sits down with Olivia Kory (Chief Strategy Officer at Haus) and George Davis (CMO at Cozy Earth) to unpack the messiest part of modern measurement: operationalizing incrementality when results swing, channels conflict, and “platform ROAS” can’t be trusted.If you’ve ever asked:“Our holdout came
The Sales Tax “Nexus” Trap Most Brands Miss
Sales tax feels simple—until you hit nexus.In this episode, Ryan Pinkham (VP of Go-to-Market at TaxCloud) breaks down why sales tax gets complex fast for growing ecommerce brands, what happens when you cross nexus thresholds in new states, and how ignoring compliance can turn into a painful (and expensive) distraction.We cover:What sales tax nexus actually means for ecommerceThe three “buckets” of
How OLLY Built a Retention Engine for a Brand Sold Everywhere
Acquisition is getting tighter! In this episode, we flip the script and talk about the lever most brands under-invest in: retention + lifecycle marketing.Taylor is joined by Jennifer Peters, Director of DTC, MarTech & Digital Compliance at OLLY (a Unilever brand), to break down how they think about keeping customers coming back when the brand is sold everywhere — from Target and Walmart to the
224 Calls Later… This One Problem Showed Up Everywhere
In this episode, Richard and Luke unpack a pattern they couldn’t ignore after running 224 sales call transcripts through an LLM:The #1 issue mid-market ecommerce brands face isn’t that performance is down… it’s that they don’t know why performance is happening.And when you don’t trust the numbers, you can’t trust the decisions.Luke walks through a painfully familiar weekly business review scenario
The $1M → $10M Ecom Growth Map
Scaling a DTC brand from $1M → $10M isn’t about finding more “hacks,” it’s about focusing on the right growth lever at the right revenue stage.In this episode, Richard and Joy, break down a practical “one move per stage” roadmap for scaling through seven figures into eight.What you’ll learn in this video$1M → $2M: Why creative volume is the unlock (and why the benchmark is ~100 ads/month)$2M → $3M
Stop Guessing Your Ecommerce Budget
In this episode, Richard and Luke break down the system we use to help 8-figure ecommerce brands stop guessing and start making confident decisions about budget, creative, and channel investment.They walk through the three core models that answer the questions every operator wrestles with:How much should we actually spend right now?How much creative do we need to support that spend?Which channels
When AI Knows Everything, How Do You Decide Anything?
AI promised clarity. Instead, it delivered information overload.In this episode, we unpack what happens when AI gives ecommerce teams more data than they can reasonably act on, dashboards multiplying, forecasts diverging, tests contradicting each other, and decisions getting harder instead of easier.Taylor and Andrew talk through:Why AI surfaces problems faster than it solves themHow “more insight
Agentic Commerce Is Here and It Changes Everything
In this episode, Richard and Tony break down what agentic commerce actually is, why Shopify and Google’s Universal Commerce Protocol matters, and how AI-driven shopping is quietly replacing traditional websites, checkout flows, and even ads.Instead of customers clicking through pages, filtering products, and checking out manually, AI agents are beginning to discover products, compare options, nego
How our Prophit System Forecasts Creative Volume
Creative strategy doesn’t fail because of bad ideas, it fails because it isn’t operationalized.In this episode, we break down how the Prophit System forecasts creative volume and turns creative production into a predictable, accountable growth lever.Using a real client example, we walk through how creative demand is modeled against spend targets, why most brands under-produce creative, and how for
Why Real Growth Comes From Accountability, Not Tools
Most teams chase growth by adding new tools, dashboards, and AI. But real, durable growth doesn’t come from software, it comes from accountability.In this video, Taylor breaks down why growth stalls when no one owns the outcome, how daily operating rhythms turn forecasts into action, and what it actually takes to build a system that compounds over time. You’ll see why repetition beats reinvention,
CFO Summit: How to Get Your Forecast Back on Track
Forecasts are always wrong — what matters is how fast you respond. In this episode, we break down how top teams diagnose a miss early, tighten the signal-to-action loop, and use daily accountability to get January (and the year) back on track.
Creative Strategy Is Dead (Here’s What Actually Works in 2026)
In this episode, Taylor explains why the traditional creative loop—analyzing past ads, chasing CTRs, writing briefs, and hoping for better results—isn’t just inefficient, it’s actively hurting growth.Instead, we break down what actually works in 2026: treating creative like a supply chain, not a brainstorming exercise.You’ll learn:Why creative strategy is no longer about ideas or opinionsHow to ti
Is AppLovin Actually Incremental? 8 Tests, Real Data, Real Results
Is AppLovin actually incremental — or just another platform taking credit for demand that already exists?In this episode, we break down 8 real AppLovin incrementality tests run across live client accounts and share what the data actually shows. No speculation. No theory. Just results.We cover why AppLovin’s measurement is more conservative than most platforms, how its attribution model impacts rep
Why “Perfect Attribution” Is a Lie (And What Actually Matters)
Most brands are chasing “perfect attribution.”That’s the wrong goal.In this episode of the Podcast, Tony sits down with Steve to break down what marketing measurement is actually for — and why accuracy with a capital-T isn’t just impossible, it’s counterproductive.Using the “Royal Cubit” metaphor, they explain why the purpose of measurement isn’t to find universal truth, but to create a shared rea
The ‘Flow Era’ Is Coming: The End of ‘Easy’ DTC
The last five years of DTC forced brands through extreme conditions—easy money, explosive growth, brutal pullbacks, rising CAC, tariffs, and shrinking consumer demand. In this presentation from the Commerce Roundtable, Taylor Holiday breaks down why those pressures weren’t the end of DTC—but the catalyst for its next evolution.Taylor introduces the “Flow Era”: a new phase where winning brands stop
The 3 Things Brands Must Get Right to Win in 2026
In this episode of the Podcast, we break down the three things brands must get right to win in 2026—based on real performance data, post-BFCM learnings, and what top-performing brands are already doing differently.Richard is joined by Luke to unpack the foundational shifts shaping the next era of ecommerce growth. As rising costs, tighter margins, and increased competition redefine the landscape,
26 Predictions That Will RESHAPE Commerce In 2026
2026 won’t be an evolution of commerce—it will be a reset.In this episode, Taylor and Richard unpack 26 predictions that will reshape commerce in 2026, exploring how AI becomes the foundational layer for shopping, work, creative, media buying, and decision-making itself.This isn’t about tools or tactics. It’s about what happens when machines stop assisting humans—and start replacing human judgment
What 53,000 Ads Reveal About Meta’s Andromeda Algorithm
Meta’s Andromeda algorithm didn’t just tweak performance it rewired how ads are delivered, scaled, and rewarded.In this episode of the Podcast, we break down insights from 53,000 ads, 147 brands, and $14.5M in BFCM spend to show how Meta now evaluates creative, bidding strategies, and content formats in a post-auction, AI-driven system.You’ll learn:Why creative volume exploded — and why it’s now r
CFO Summit - Turning Your Marketing Calendar Into a Financial Forecast
Presented by:Fulfil : https://bit.ly/3KNjCYJTaxCloud: https://bit.ly/49mKdnRChargeflow: https://bit.ly/49mKfvZYou'll learn how to...-Connect marketing actions to financial outcomes-Combine qualitative planning with quantitative modeling-Create alignment across your finance and marketing teamsGet our system: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact
Welcome to Q5: The Most Important Quarter You’re Ignoring
The holiday shipping cutoff doesn’t end the year. It flips the calendar into Q5 — the six-week window where intent spikes, CPMs collapse, and the best customer cohorts of the year are born.In this episode of the Podcast, we break down why Q5 is the Super Bowl for health & wellness brands and how operators should think about acquisition, offers, and retention heading into January.Joining the c
The Marketing Calendar Is Your Real Revenue Model
In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the uncomfortable truth most brands ignore: your marketing calendar not your spreadsheet—is the real driver of revenue. We walk through why forecasts consistently miss, how spending power actually shifts month to month, and the system top DTC brands use to tie marketing actions directly to revenue outcomes.You’ll learn how to:Build foreca
The 2026 7-Figure Brand Playbook (Stop Copying 9-Figure Advice)
In this episode, Taylor and Joy break down the real 2026 playbook for 7-figure ecommerce brands, and why copying 9-figure operators is one of the biggest mistakes you can make.Coming off BFCM, they unpack what actually happened for small brands and what it signals heading into the new year.You’ll learn:How to create “four peaks a month” using trends, cultural moments, and audience overlapsWhy fore
From Campaigns to Cash Flow: How to Build a Forecast That Works
How do high-performing ecommerce brands turn campaigns into predictable cash flow?In this episode, we break down the exact forecasting process we use at Common Thread Collective to consistently land within 0–10% of goal across dozens of brands.Growth Strategy Manager Brian Sakansky joins Richard to unpack how CTC builds forecasts, operationalizes them, and uses daily expectations to make real-time
BFCM 2025 Results: What Really Happened This Weekend
In this episode of the Podcast, we break down the real story of BFCM 2025—from forecasting accuracy to media buying chaos, offer pivots, AppLovin’s breakout performance, and what this year’s results say about the broader consumer economy.Richard and Taylor walk through:The full BFCM data recap: +7% total revenue, +10% new customers, +13% contribution marginWhy Saturday became the surprise winner o
5 Last-Minute BFCM Fixes You STILL Have Time to Make
Black Friday is three days away but there’s still time to tighten your strategy and avoid costly mistakes. In this episode of the podcast, the CTC team breaks down the 5 essential last-minute BFCM fixes every brand needs before the biggest weekend of the year.Whether you're behind on creative, unsure about spend pacing, or just want to sanity-check your plan…this is the checklist that will sav
CFO Summit: Board, Budget, Bonus - The Forecasting Framework for 2026
In our first CFO Summit Taylor breaks down the Board, Budget, Bonus forecasting framework—CTC’s core system for building a clear, defensible, and aligned financial plan for 2026.This replay walks you through how high-performing ecommerce brands create scenario models that serve their board, their finance team, and their operators… all without losing focus during the busy BFCM season.In this replay
Meta’s Black Box Is Ruining Your Creative Strategy
Meta’s new creative ranking systems are changing everything, and most brands have no idea how much it’s affecting their performance. In this episode, we break down exactly how Meta’s Black Box evaluates your ads, why your creatives are being grouped together, and why small variations (like hook swaps) no longer matter the way you think they do.Our Guest today is Reza Khadjavi, CEO at Motion, the c
How to Set Meta ROAS Targets Before Black Friday
How do you set the right ROAS target on Meta heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday?Most brands either guess… or use last month’s numbers and hope they hold.But BFCM behaves nothing like a normal period and the attribution windows prove it.In this episode, Tony and Steve walk through the real data behind Meta’s 7-day vs. 28-day click attribution, why value shifts dramatically in the weeks lead
2026 Forecast Planning: Board vs Budget vs Bonus Explained
Most ecommerce brands build one forecast — and that’s why most forecasts are wrong.In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the 3-forecast model that every high-performing brand should use when planning for 2026: Board. Budget. Bonus.You’ll learn:Why every brand needs three forecasts, not oneHow to balance short-term execution (Black Friday) with long-term planning (2026)How to
Why Your 2026 Financial Plan Needs 3 Scenarios (Not 1)
Most brands are building their 2026 plan all wrong.In this episode, Taylor breaks down why you can’t walk into the new year with one financial forecast — and why the smartest brands plan three: Board, Budget, and Bonus.You’ll learn how to:Build scenario plans that align finance and marketingForecast existing and new customer revenue with confidenceConnect your marketing calendar directly to your f
How to Optimize Ad Spend in Real Time During Black Friday
Black Friday isn’t won by guessing, it’s won hour by hour.In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how top DTC brands use real-time ad spend optimization to hit — and even exceed — their Black Friday and Cyber Monday targets.You’ll learn how hourly tracking transforms decision making during the biggest shopping weekend of the year, plus:How to spot pacing issues before it’s too
Is Ecommerce Finally Rebounding? Here’s What the Data Says.
After months of mixed signals, new data from the DTC Index shows ecommerce revenue is up 10% year over year — but consumer confidence is heading in the opposite direction.In this episode, host Richard sits down with Steve, CTC’s Chief Data Scientist, to unpack what’s really happening in the numbers. They dig into the latest data from our DTC Index and Consumer Confidence Index, exploring:Why retur
How to Plan Hour-by-Hour Spend for Black Friday & Cyber Monday
Want to stop guessing when to spend your Meta budget during Black Friday and Cyber Monday? This episode breaks down exactly how to plan your ad spend hour by hour so you can hit your revenue goals without wasting a single dollar.Taylor Holiday and Luke Austin walk through the real data behind BFCM revenue flow, showing when sales actually spike, when performance dips, and how top DTC brands use ho
DTC Hotline: How would you identify and fill your Q4 revenue gaps?
This is a special Friday episode feature of CTC's DTC Hotline:Most brands talk about hitting their Q4 goals — but few have a system to identify and close revenue gaps before they happen.In this episode of The DTC Hotline, Tony, Luke, and Richard break down how to spot and fill revenue shortfalls during the holidays, using the same daily frameworks CTC applies across top DTC brands.They’ll walk
Solving Meta Ad Creative, eCom Monopolies, and Agency Partnerships
In this special episode of the Random Show, Taylor Holiday and Andrew Faris unpack a wide-ranging conversation—from AI’s potential to predict creative performance before launch, to the messy truth about equity splits, competition, and why most brands misunderstand “growth.”They debate:Whether LLMs could replace creative testing entirelyHow to design equity partnerships that actually reflect valueW
From JP Morgan to DTC: How Ondo Built a Better Sock Brand
He left JP Morgan to build a sock brand and it worked.In this episode of podcast, Taylor sits down with Daniel Shim, founder of Ondo, the DTC brand reinventing no-show socks. They dig into how a finance background helped build a profitable ecommerce business, what it takes to stand out in a crowded category, and why growth isn’t just about scale — it’s about discipline.You’ll LearnHow a banker tu
Why Retention Starts at Acquisition: A New Approach to LTV Growth
Most brands treat retention and acquisition as separate strategies and that’s the problem. In this episode, we reveal why retention actually begins at acquisition and how understanding your customer lifecycle from day zero can unlock massive LTV growth.Josh Tay joins Richard to unpack how our Global Accelerator program integrates growth and lifecycle strategy into one unified system. From front-lo
The Modern Media Playbook
In this episode of the podcast, Taylor and Luke take you inside the system Common Thread Collective has built to define what modern media management really looks like in 2025.Media buying has evolved - incrementality, experimentation, MMM, and FP&A can’t live in silos anymore. Taylor and Luke break down how to turn these complex ideas into one cohesive, profit-first workflow that drives real b
How to Win Q4 with Data, Not Guesswork
Stop guessing — start scaling.In this episode of Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how one eight-figure brand completely rewrote its Q4 plan using the Profit System’s Spend Power Model and Creative Demand Model.You’ll see exactly how reallocating ad spend, optimizing contribution margin, and forecasting creative volume can unlock immediate profit gains in the next 30 days — without guessing or
Stop Wasting Your Q4 Budget on Holiday UGC
Most brands blow their Q4 creator budget on one thing: holiday only content. In this episode of thPodcast, Richard sits down with Adrianne, Director of Creator Content, to break down why that’s a mistake and what to do instead.Learn CTC’s full framework for sourcing and scaling creator content that actually performs through Q4 and beyond. From building evergreen briefs to managing creator timeline
How to Craft the Best BFCM Offer this Year
As Q4 kicks off, one of the biggest levers brands can pull is their offer strategy. In this episode, Richard Gaffin (Director of Digital Product Strategy) and Taylor Holiday (CEO) break down how to design offers that maximize both new customer acquisition and retention during Black Friday/Cyber Monday.They walk through insights from CTC’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday Offer Database—a collection of 67
eCommerce Is About to Evolve - Taylor Holiday's Keynote @ Stord Summit
In this special episode, we share Taylor Holiday’s keynote from Stord’s Summit.(https://www.stord.com/) He unpacks the four eras of DTC—COVID’s boom, the lean “Ozempic era,” and what he calls the “Flow Era.” Drawing from CTC’s dataset, client stories, and industry benchmarks, Taylor explains why 2025 could mark the strongest period in DTC history.You’ll learn:Why the excess of capital and demand d
The Measurement Roadmap: How it Works
In this episode of the E-Commerce Playbook, Taylor Holiday and Richard Gaffin dig into the Measurement Roadmap—CTC’s framework for deciding what to test, when to test it, and why it matters. They unpack why incrementality testing is so crucial, the massive swings it can reveal in platform reporting, and how brands can use repeated tests to progressively “shrink the error bars” around decision-maki
Is AppLovin making a comeback?
Most brands rush into new ad platforms before they’re ready. In this episode, Richard and Tony break down why channel expansion is less about “good or bad” and more about timing and fuel.They revisit the core sequence—master Meta, then Google—before adding channels like Snapchat, TikTok, YouTube, or Pinterest. And they go deep on why CTC is bullish on AppLovin, the mobile gaming ad platform that’s
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