The China-Global South Podcast
A weekly discussion on Chinese engagement in the developing world from the news team of The China-Global South Project (CGSP). Join hosts Eric Olander in Vietnam and Cobus van Staden in South Africa for insightful interviews with scholars, analysts, and journalists from around the world. You'll also get regular updates from CGSP's editors in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
Episodes
China's BRI Is Bigger Than Ever. It Just Looks Very Different
After the pandemic, as Chinese state-backed lending to developing countries largely dried up, critics declared the Belt and Road Initiative effectively dead. They were wrong. This year, China's financial engagement with BRI countries reached another record, driven by larger deals, private companies, green energy, and a growing focus on industrial development. Chinese firms are increasingly investi
The Iran War Is Reshaping the Persian Gulf. What Does China Do Now?
The war in Iran is reshaping the strategic landscape of the Persian Gulf, putting new pressure on China's relations with Iran and the Gulf Arab states. Beijing's response is exposing the tension between its deep economic interests in the region and its reluctance to assume a larger role in regional security. Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter, and Aaron Glasserman, a distingui
How China Uses Space to Build Influence in the Mideast
China is expanding its space partnerships across the Middle East through satellites, navigation systems, technology transfer, and other forms of cooperation. Beijing tailors these partnerships to individual countries, while governments such as Egypt, Iran, and the UAE use Chinese cooperation to pursue their own technological and strategic interests. A new report in the Texas National Security Revi
What the Global South Can Learn From Shenzhen's Tech Rise
Forty years ago, Shenzhen was a small southern Chinese fishing village, just across the border from Hong Kong. Today, it's one of the world's most advanced megacities, with a population of nearly 20 million people and home to many of the tech industry's largest companies, including Huawei, Tencent, DJI, and Transsion, among countless others. That remarkable transformation within a single lifetime
China's View of India Has Changed. Is New Delhi Ready?
China and India are entering a cautious period of diplomatic re-engagement after years of confrontation, but deep strategic mistrust, unresolved border disputes, and competing security interests continue to define the relationship. Economic cooperation is gradually resuming even as political tensions remain unresolved. At the same time, shifting global power dynamics are reshaping the balance betw
China is Outpacing the U.S. in Southeast Asia
As competition between the United States and China intensifies, Southeast Asia has emerged as one of the world's most important geopolitical battlegrounds. But despite growing tensions in the South China Sea and mounting pressure from Washington and Beijing, public opinion across much of the region remains more favorable toward China than many policymakers assume. A new report from the Asia Societ
Why Critical Minerals Alone Won't Make Countries Rich
There's growing optimism across Africa, Latin America, and Asia that abundant reserves of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel can fuel a new era of economic development. Determined to avoid the "resource curse" that enriched foreign companies while leaving local populations behind, governments are increasingly moving to ban exports of raw ores and instead promote domestic processing
What the Iran War Reveals About China's Power in the Persian Gulf
There's an emerging consensus that China is among the chief beneficiaries of the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. While Beijing has undoubtedly welcomed Washington becoming entangled in yet another war in West Asia, and continues to reap commercial gains from booming exports of electric vehicles and other technologies, the conflict is also exposing the limits of China's geop
China's Pacific Missile Shock Explained
Two weeks ago, a PLA Navy submarine in the South China Sea test-fired a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile that flew 7,300 kilometers before splashing down in the South Pacific. The launch drew sharp criticism from several Pacific Island countries, whose leaders argued that it violated the region's longstanding identity as a nuclear-free zone. To be clear, the test did not violate
Why Have China-Japan Relations Fallen Apart?
China's suspension of rare earth exports to Japan has now entered its seventh month, with shipments in June again falling to a fraction of their level a year earlier. The restrictions are one sign of a broader collapse in relations between the two countries since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office last fall. The relationship, long marked by tension, deteriorated sharply after Takaichi said
The Limits of China's Iran Diplomacy
The U.S. and China clashed at the United Nations this week, with each accusing the other of fueling instability in the Persian Gulf. Washington has long argued that Beijing plays a pivotal role in the conflict as the largest buyer of Iranian oil and a supplier of dual-use technologies that could support Tehran's military. Many experts, however, dispute that assessment. They argue that China's abil
The New Security Landscape Taking Shape in Asia
The U.S. war against Iran is having a profound impact far away from the battlefield, all the way on the other side of Asia in the Western Pacific. There's an emerging consensus among Washington's allies and foes alike that the U.S. will be incapable, unwilling, or a mix of both to fight a war against China in this part of the world. That's prompting a rapid reevaluation of security postures across
Why China Is Winning the Iran War
With open conflict between the U.S. and Iran now underway again, it's still too early to determine which side will ultimately prevail. But one point is gaining broad agreement among analysts: China is one of the few major powers that stands to benefit from the war. The conflict has accelerated several trends that work in Beijing's favor. It has driven greater use of the Chinese yuan in internation
Kenya's China Debt Restructuring Explained
Kenya's landmark debt restructuring deal with China, announced last year, converted $3 billion in outstanding China Exim Bank loans from U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan. The currency switch could save the East African country more than $200 million in debt servicing costs. Not surprisingly, other countries in Asia and Africa are now exploring similar arrangements to reduce their debt burdens. But a n
China's Economy Is Stronger and Weaker Than You Think
Two very different narratives about China's economy emerged this week. In France, G7 leaders pushed back against what they see as China's growing dominance in key industries. In Beijing, meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry urged observers to look beyond data showing acute economic weakness. The reality is that China's economy is so large and complex that both narratives can be true at the same tim
Former State Department Insider on Washington's Muddled Africa Policy
Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent. Today, Dan is out of government and
The Iran War is Boosting China's Green Energy Sales
On March 1, one day after the U.S. and Israel launched what would become the ongoing war with Iran, Ren Hanjun, a visiting professor at Peking University, posted a video on WeChat predicting that China would emerge as one of the conflict's biggest beneficiaries. Three months later, that prediction appears increasingly accurate. Demand for Chinese EVs, solar panels, and other clean energy technolog
China-Brazil Business Is Booming
China is facing serious headwinds across much of Latin America as the United States ramps up pressure to curb Beijing's engagement in the region. The Chinese have encountered major setbacks in Panama, Mexico, Chile, and potentially in Honduras, where the new government is actively considering switching diplomatic ties back to Taiwan. But that is not the case in Brazil. Chinese businesses are inves
Why China Doesn't Want to be an American-Style Hegemon
One of the most common talking points among policymakers and analysts in Washington is the belief that China aims to replace the United States as the world's dominant power. Variations of that narrative are also widely shared in many European capitals. There is little doubt that China is asserting itself more forcefully in global affairs, especially amid a new era of Great Power competition. But
What Most People Get Wrong About China's Iran Strategy
President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week hoping China could help contain the escalating U.S.-Iran crisis, but the summit underscored how limited Beijing's influence over Tehran actually is. In Washington, many policymakers assume China can pressure Iran because it buys the vast majority of Iranian oil. But the reality is far more complicated, and there is little evidence the Iranian
Why China's Research Ships Worry Other Countries
China operates the world's largest fleet of deep-sea research vessels, with more than 40 ships officially tasked with civilian scientific missions. But an investigation by CNN and the environmental news outlet Mongabay found that many of these ships appear to operate in ways more in line with intelligence gathering than with purely scientific research. The CNN/Mongabay investigation tracked eight
China Flexes Power In Panama Canal Clash
When Panama's Supreme Court ruled that Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison's operation of two ports on either side of the Panama Canal was unconstitutional, President Jose Raul Mulina said at the time that he wasn't too concerned about China retaliating. Now, several months later, Mulina and other Panamanian officials are becoming increasingly concerned that this is precisely what's happenin
Middle Powers in a Post-American Order
The U.S. created the post-World War II international order that it no longer wants to lead today. But what replaces it is still unknown. So, in the meantime, small and medium-sized countries, so-called "middle powers," are scrambling to form new partnerships to insulate themselves from the inevitable instability that will arise from this transition. We're seeing this play out daily now as leaders
China Moves to Fill U.S. Void in Asia
U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Asia next week for a highly anticipated summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Trump will be returning to a region he's personally transformed through his challenges to the international order, tariffs, and now the Iran war that's hit Asia's energy sector especially hard. The U.S.-led security architecture across the Asia-Pacific is also showing
Is Vietnam Drifting Closer Toward China?
Ties between China and Vietnam appear to be improving across every front. Vietnam is selling more to China, while China is investing more in its southern neighbor. Even on thorny territorial issues in the South China Sea, the two sides said they're talking through their differences. And last month, Vietnamese leader To Lam traveled to China in his capacity as both General Secretary of the Communis
Iran War Boosts China's Energy Strategy
Sales of Chinese renewable energy products surged to record highs in March in response to the disruption of oil and gas supplies brought on by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. Shipments of Chinese-made electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels all surged as countries and consumers around the world are moving quickly to insulate themselves from the worsening oil shocks. Tim McDonell, climate
China and the Hidden Politics of Global Aid
The development finance industry would like us to believe that money for infrastructure, education, and other needs goes to where it's needed most. The reality, though, isn't that simple. Politics, it turns out, plays a much more important role than many would like to admit. Keyi Tang, an assistant professor at ESADE Business School in Spain, studied development finance data on 48 African countrie
U.S.–China Competition in Latin America: Ports, Power, and Politics
Long neglected by the United States, Latin America is now on the frontlines of the global contest with China. Washington's new National Security Strategy made it clear that the U.S. must remain the unrivaled hegemonic power in the Western Hemisphere, something it can't do so long as China is the largest trading partner for most Latin American countries. The U.S. is particularly unnerved by the sca
The Chinese Kingpin at the Center of Cambodia's Crackdown on Scammers
The Cambodian government is leading a massive, unprecedented crackdown on the scamming business that once accounted for an estimated one-third of the country's GDP. For the past six months, heavily armed security forces have raided scam centers across the country and arrested more than 6,000 in the first couple months of the year. The campaign began last fall when the United States issued a crimin
It's Already Too Late to Break China's EV Battery Dominance
U.S., European, and Japanese leaders are all talking about the urgency of building new supply chains to end their reliance on China for critical minerals and batteries that will power next-generation mobility, technology, and weapons. It all sounds great and makes for good politics at home, but the reality is that China's dominance of these vital supply chains is so big and still growing that it w
View From Beijing: Why China is Not Protecting Iran
Conservative media outlets and think tank analysts in the United States have sharply criticized China for what they say is Beijing's failure to support its supposed "allies" in Venezuela and Iran. Their arguments have gained traction on X and other social media platforms, where critics portray China as an unreliable partner that avoids confrontation, especially with the United States. Other analys
Is China Building a New World Order?
China has launched a series of global governance and trade initiatives over the past decade that have sparked concern in U.S. and European capitals about whether Beijing is seeking to displace the Western-led international order. The so-called "5Gs" include the Global Governance/Security/Development/Civilization/AI Initiatives, along with the BRI, SCO, AIIB, and numerous other Chinese-initiated pr
Who Controls the Battery Age? Congo, China, and the New Resource Order
The U.S., Japan, and other G7 countries are scrambling to secure critical minerals to end their reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains. Every week, there's news of another mining deal for cobalt, lithium, and other resources essential to powering 21st century technology. But the race to control critical resources may already be over. Decades before countries in the Global West recognized the
The Iran War Looks Very Different From China
The United States and Israel have launched strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering a full-scale war in the Middle East. As the region descends into conflict, a fascinating debate has emerged about what this means for China: from the surge in Chinese defense stocks and weapons export opportunities, to the collapse of Beijing's landmark Saudi-Iran diplomatic agreement. I
U.S. Wants China Out of Latin America. Is that Even Possible?
The Panamanian government formally took over the two ports operated by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison this week at both ends of the Panama Canal. U.S. officials celebrated the move as part of their larger effort to expel China from the Western Hemisphere. Washington has now set its sights on the Chinese-owned Chancay mega port in Peru. But given the extent of Chinese engagement in Latin America, mos
How a Little-Known Chinese Company Conquered Africa's Cell Phone Market
Shenzhen-based Transsion Holdings is now a massive Chinese technology company that few people outside of Africa and certain parts of Asia have heard of. Even in China, the brand, now the world's 5th-largest mobile phone producer, remains largely unknown. Transsion gained notoriety after it entered the African market in 2006. Back then, the world's largest phone brands all but ignored African consu
US and China Take Divergent Paths in the New West Asia
The United States and China are pursuing sharply different strategies in a region that is no longer best understood as the "Middle East," but as part of a broader Asian-centered geopolitical system historically described as "West Asia." This vast region stretches from countries along the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, all the way to the Eastern Mediterranean. While the U.S. remains the undi
The Development Finance Corporation and the US-China competition in the Global South
When the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was launched in 2019, a big part of its mandate from Congress was to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. That sentiment was a key theme on Capitol Hill late last year during the DFC's Congressional reauthorization, when lawmakers from both parties made urgent appeals for the agency to do more to challenge China in the Global South. Congress
Why the Belt and Road Is Back in a Big Way
There's been a lot of discussion in recent years about the financial health of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Critics contend the BRI became overstretched, bankrupting borrowers and straining creditors suffering from a weakening Chinese economy. Even the Chinese government sought to reframe the BRI with its "small yet beautiful" tagline to reflect a new era of purported austerity. And while all
How South Asian States Navigate Rivalries Between the U.S., China, and India
As debate intensifies over the unraveling of the U.S.-led international order, sparked by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's stark remarks at Davos, small states are being forced to rethink how they survive and advance in an increasingly fragmented global system. Carney captured the anxiety shared by many global leaders when he bluntly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over. In
Africa and the New World Order: U.S. Pulls Back and China Moves Forward
The collapse of the post-war international system now underway will have a disproportionate impact on African countries that rely heavily on multilateral bodies like the UN. Beyond a pull-back of aid and humanitarian assistance, African countries must also contend with an increasingly hostile United States. Dozens of African countries have been targeted by the Trump administration for visa restric
China's Place in the New Post-American International Order
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week will likely be remembered as one of the most significant orations of the early 21st century. Carney channeled the fear and frustration of many global leaders when he defiantly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over. The "rupture" that Carney referenced in his address has profound consequence
China's Low-Key Response to the Iran Crisis
China was among the first and most vocal opponents of the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro. Curiously, though, when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to launch military strikes against Iran as Tehran dealt with a massive popular uprising, China was largely silent. Both Venezuela and Iran have high-level strategic partnerships with China, ye
Is the Crisis in Venezuela a "Setback" for China? Eric Olander on Sinica with Kaiser Kuo
In this special bonus episode, Eric speaks with Kaiser Kuo, host of the popular Sinica Podcast, about China's response to the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Many U.S. and European analysts have framed Maduro's downfall as a "setback" or even an "embarrassment" for Beijing, but while that may be true, Eric argues that it's also premature to make
What Maduro's Detention Means for China
One of the prevailing narratives that's emerged following the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the detention of President Nicolás Maduro is that this is a major setback for China. Some analysts have called it a "strategic failure" on Beijing's part, while others have described it as "reality check" for China's role as a "global player." But China's ability to influence events in Venezue
2025 China-Global South Year in Review
In this special year-end edition of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud look back on the top stories of 2025 and look ahead to the key trend to watch in 2026. 📌 Topics covered include: Simandou goes online (Guinea) and the iron ore geopolitics shift Zambia's Kafue River spill and the China narrative battle China's manufacturing push, overcapacity, and export pressures Soybean
Jane Perlez on the New Era of U.S.-China Competition and Rivalry
The increasingly acrimonious U.S.-China relationship is the defining trend of this era, upending global politics, economics, and security, especially across the Global South. Countries that have worked hard from having to pick sides in this new competition, may longer have that luxury as this rivalry intensifies. Jane Perlez, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and a former longtime China correspo
What Makes China's Foreign Aid Different
Soon after USAID was closed in February, speculation circulated that China would move quickly to fill the void left by the United States. That did not happen. While the Chinese did step in to provide modest additional funding for a handful of programs, like demining initiatives in Cambodia and support for the Africa CDC in Addis Ababa, overall, there's been no significant change in China's foreign
The New Dilemma for Middle Powers Caught Between the U.S. and China
In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden unpack a major question facing middle powers everywhere: What happens when the global security architecture you relied on for decades no longer exists? Fresh from meetings at Australian National University and the Australasian Aid Conference, Eric shares conversations with scholars, diplomats, and policymakers in
How China Uses Parliamentary Buildings to Build Influence in Africa
China has funded, designed, and built more than 200 government buildings across Africa, including the headquarters of the African Union and Ecowas, foreign ministry annexes in Ghana and Kenya, and at least 15 national parliaments. Eric and Cobus speak with Innocent Batsani-Ncube, an associate professor of African politics at Queen Mary University of London and author of the new book China and Afri
Is China's "Engineering State" the New Development Model for the Global South?
China's rapid ascent from rural poverty to industrial superpower reshaped the global economy and established a new center of gravity for manufacturing. Today, Chinese factories anchor much of the world's supply chains, producing goods at a speed and scale that few countries can match. Behind this transformation is a system that author Dan Wang describes in his new book "Breakneck: China's Quest to
Why China's Ability to Make a $6 Toaster is a Big Problem for the Global South
China is breaking the rules of development. Typically, as countries progress up the value chain, they transition from agriculture to light industry, then to heavy industry, and ultimately to high-technology and services. And as they move up the value chain, this creates opportunities for less-developed countries to advance. But China's not doing that. Chinese manufacturers are holding on to their
China's Evolution from "Rules Taker" to "Rules Maker" in Development Finance
As China's economic influence expands, so does its ambition to shape the very system that once constrained it. In this episode of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric speaks with Greg Chin and Kevin Gallagher from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center about their new book that details China's transformation from a "rules taker" within the Bretton Woods system to a "rules maker" who
China Drives Indonesia's Push for Clean Energy and More Coal
China sits at the heart of Indonesia's energy paradox — driving the country's ambitious shift toward renewables while remaining deeply entrenched in its coal economy. Chinese financing and technology are accelerating Indonesia's clean energy buildout, from nickel refining to electric vehicles and solar manufacturing. Yet the same Chinese firms are also behind large swathes of Indonesia's coal infr
Trump, China and the New Power Politics in Asia
Chinese exports are booming—but ties with the U.S. are collapsing. Across Asia, from Beijing to Manila, Washington's shifting strategy under Trump is reshaping alliances and testing security guarantees that have underpinned the region for decades. Eric speaks with James Crabtree, a distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Asia Society, about how Asia's lea
How China is Displacing U.S. Economic Power in Latin America
For centuries, the United States was the undisputed hegemonic power across the Western Hemisphere; however, that is no longer the case today. China is now the largest trading partner for the majority of countries in Latin America and is quickly filling the void left by a decades-long U.S. retrenchment. In his new book, "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America," F
China's Play for Global Governance Leadership
In the weeks since Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the new Global Governance Initiative (GGI) during a speech at the SCO summit in Tianjin, Beijing's propaganda apparatus has been working overtime to build support for the new plan, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and other developing regions. The GGI is the latest in a series of Chinese global initiatives that also focus on developme
China-India Relations Remain Fragile Despite Warming Ties
It wasn't that long ago when the leaders from India and China couldn't even look at each other when they were in the same room. Today, the situation is very different. Ties between the two Asian powers have improved dramatically from a few years ago, when a violent conflict along their disputed border sent relations into a deep freeze. But even though China and India have resolved a number of thei
Why Chinese Companies Are Pouring Money Into Brazil
China's economic ties with Brazil are booming, and 2024 saw a stunning 113% jump in Chinese investment, totaling $4.2 billion across 39 projects, the highest number ever, according to a new report by the Brazil-China Business Council. From renewable energy and oil to mining and automotive manufacturing, Chinese companies are pouring capital into Brazil's economy. This investment boom, though, come
India-China Reset? Modi and Xi Test a Fragile Rapprochement
The reset between India and China appears to be holding. Nearly two weeks after President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Tianjin, five years of frigid ties between the two Asian powers are steadily thawing. However, it will take more than summits and statements to rebuild trust, particularly among Indian policymakers who remain wary of China'
The Trump, Xi Foreign Policy Duel in Southeast Asia
Two sharply contrasting foreign policy visions emerged this week from China and the United States. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping outlined an agenda in talks with fellow BRICS leaders that directly challenged Donald Trump's "America First" doctrine, urging instead for stronger multilateral cooperation. Meanwhile in Washington, reports surfaced of a potential overhaul in U.S. security strategy, s
China's Small State Diplomacy Strategy in Latin America
While most of the world's attention at this week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin was on Xi Jinping's meetings with leaders from the big powers, namely India and Russia, the Chinese President also spent considerable time with heads of state from many of the world's smallest countries, like the Maldives and Nepal, among others. This is part of China's longstanding small-state d
SCO Summit Review: Xi, Modi & Putin Present a United Front
This week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin signaled China's ambition to redefine global governance. Leaders from more than 20 countries endorsed the Tianjin Declaration, pressing for a multipolar order, tighter security cooperation, and expanded economic integration. The joint statement also went further than past communiqués, condemning Israel's actions in Gaza and refl
SCO Preview: Modi Heads to China Amid U.S. Tariff Shock
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi left Northeast Asia this week, embarking on a two-stop trip that includes Japan and then China, where he will participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which begins on Sunday. The PM's visit comes amid a full-scale implosion of India's ties with the United States, following Washington's imposition this week of a massive 50% tariff on all India
China and the Middle East: The Future in Three Scenarios
China's rapidly expanding presence in the Middle East has sparked a mix of anxiety and excitement, depending on one's perspective. Washington regards Beijing's support of Iran and the Palestinian cause, among other things, as key threats to its strategic interests. While Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and other regional actors see Beijing as a valuable economic partner. A new book by two leading Chin
China Moves to Bolster Pakistan Ties Amid U.S. Rapprochement
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Islamabad on Wednesday for a three-day visit, following a high-level stop in India earlier in the week, where he met both Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His trip to Pakistan comes at a pivotal moment. Islamabad has recently repaired relations with the United States after more than a decade of estrangement, just as Washin
China's Happy With Its Iran Ties Just the Way They Are
There's been a lot of speculation in the aftermath of the brief U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran that Beijing would step in to bolster its longtime partners in Tehran. Rumors have been bouncing around that China will sell Iran advanced fighter jets and help rebuild the country's ballistic missile program, among other things. There is no evidence, though, to support any of those claims. Instead, Chin
Belt and Road Investment Surge Shatters Expectations
For much of the past two years, we've been told to expect a slimmer, more austere Belt and Road under the new "Small Yet Beautiful" mantra. The days of Chinese mega deals across the Global South were over... or so we thought. Turns out that Chinese firms, largely from the private sector, are continuing to invest heavily in energy, mining, and construction projects in Asia, Africa, and the Middle E
Why Vietnam Will Never Join a U.S. Coalition Against China
Listen in on many of the foreign policy discussions about Vietnam that take place at think tanks and government seminars in Washington, D.C., and you'll hear this sense of optimism that "Hanoi is on our side." They see Vietnam's historical suspicions of China and the country's ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea as key indicators that Hanoi will eventually join a U.S.-led coalition
China's Middle East Math
There was widespread disappointment in Iran that China didn't do more to help Tehran during the recent 12-day war with Israel and the United States. Beijing, for its part, offered robust rhetorical and moral support, but little else. The calculus for Chinese policymakers is that Iran just isn't as strategically important to its foreign policy as other countries in the region, namely Saudi Arabia a
What Next for China-Israel Ties After the Iran War
In the first few months of this year, it seemed that China's ties with Israel were on the mend after entering into a deep freeze following the October 7th terrorist attack by Hamas. China had begun to soften some of its rhetoric, and Israeli officials were keen to re-engage Beijing on economic issues. That momentum stalled in mid-June, though, when Israel launched an attack on Iran that prompted a
China Forced to Regroup After Israel-Iran War
China is emerging from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in a much weaker position. For years, Beijing counted on Tehran to serve as a bulwark against Washington. Today, though, that's no longer possible as the Iranian government and its proxies across the Middle East have been neutralized, at least for now. The conflict also exposed a major Chinese vulnerability following threats that Iran might
How Middle Powers Are Navigating the U.S.–China Rivalry
In this new era of surging instability and geopolitical uncertainty, so-called "Middle Power" states are rapidly diversifying their foreign policies to deepen engagement with other countries in the Global South, while reducing their exposure to the U.S. and China. But the approach taken by these middle power countries varies a lot. A new report by the Körber Foundation in Germany surveyed foreig
Choosing Sides or Playing Both? Latin America Navigates U.S.–China Rivalry
Latin America is the key focal point for the United States in its global competition with China. President Donald Trump has made it clear that he deems China's growing presence in the Western Hemisphere a direct threat to U.S. interests in the region. This puts most countries in Central and South America in a tight spot, given that many states in this region count China as their largest trading pa
Active Non-Alignment in the Era of U.S.-China Rivalry
From Panama to Kenya to Indonesia, a growing number of developing countries are being pulled into the intensifying rivalry between China and the U.S. For these middle powers, the stakes are high as they must carefully navigate the tension to avoid provoking either side and risking serious consequences. But rather than accommodating the U.S. and China, developing countries should instead pursue a d
Why the India-China Détente May Be Over
After several months of steadily improving ties, India-China relations appear to be cooling once again following the recent clashes in Kashmir. China's military support for Pakistan during the conflict earlier this month has triggered fresh concerns in New Delhi, with many now fearing that the fragile détente built over the past year is starting to unravel. Tensions further escalated in recent day
China's Mideast Strategy in the Trump 2.0 Era
Donald Trump's return to the Middle East marks a shift toward transactional diplomacy, emphasizing trade, investment, and a retreat from human rights rhetoric. In a striking parallel, China has long pursued a similar approach in the region—prioritizing business ties over political entanglements. The question now is how will China respond to this rapidly changing geopolitical landscape? In this spe
China Courts Latin America as U.S. Pressure Mounts
Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Latin American leaders on Tuesday to stand with Beijing in the fight against Donald Trump's campaign to upend the international system. Xi made the appeal at a ministerial gathering of leaders and senior officials from across Latin America and the Caribbean that's taking place this week in Beijing. The President's appeal underscores the challenging position that
The Future of U.S. and Chinese Aid Programs in the Global South
Two years ago, Daniel Russel and Blake Berger, senior analysts at the Asia Society Policy Institute, embarked on an ambitious project to bring U.S. and Chinese stakeholders together to speak in a safe, controlled setting about their respective countries' aid strategies in the Global South. This was a big undertaking given how few direct contacts there are today between U.S. and Chinese stakeholder
The New Great Game: China and the West Vie for Influence in Central Asia
Central Asia is one of those regions that isn't getting a lot of attention these days, as it's not a major player in the escalating U.S.-China trade war. But that may soon change as both major powers look to the region to source energy, critical minerals, and build new logistics corridors. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spent a few days in the Kazakh capital Almaty meeting with his five Central
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