The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe offers market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed. Host David L. Bahnsen, a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business, discusses dividend growth investing and other financial topics. The podcast is understandable for all sorts of investors and is based on Bahnsen's books on responsibility, dividend growth, and the meaning of work.
Episodes
Wednesday - October 14, 2026
On October 14, Dividend Cafe recapped a down market day with the Dow nearly flat, the S&P down over 1%, and the Nasdaq down about 1.9% as tech and semis led declines. Markets reacted to September CPI, with headline inflation up 0.6% (in line) but core CPI up 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and year-over-year core at 2.6% versus 2.5%, with broader components like airfares, transportation, and shelter
Tuesday - October 13, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a modestly lower, mixed market day with the S&P flat, Dow down 180, and Nasdaq down about 40, led by weakness in semis and some AI names. With CPI due tomorrow, markets were largely rudderless; rates fell across the curve, especially long-end, further flattening the yield curve. Early bank earnings were generally positive even as financial stocks fell. He notes year-to-date
Monday - October 12, 2026
In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen notes the stock market was open while the bond market was closed for a government/bank holiday, which he gave distortive given markets’ sensitivity to yields, and points viewers to Friday’s bond-yield episode. He recaps markets: Dow +196, S&P slightly down, Nasdaq down nearly 0.5%, with energy leading (oil above $93) and technology lagging. He emphas
What to Make of Rising Bond Yields?
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2
David L. Bahnsen previews a fuller recap of portfolio-manager meetings next week and focuses this episode on the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields, especially the 10-year. He argues the 75-basis-point jump is not credibly explained by worsening U.S. deficits or national debt, noting total public-plus-private debt-to-GDP is unchanged versus 20 years
Thursday - October 8, 2026
Brian Szytel records shortly before the close on October 8, noting a modest down day with the Dow and S&P off about a third of a percent and the Nasdaq down about two-thirds, as value holds up better than growth amid sharply higher oil (WTI around $92, Brent around $106) and slightly higher rates. He observes the yield curve has been flattening over the past two weeks as long rates come down s
Wednesday - October 7, 2026
Brian Szytel reports a modest down day in equities after all-time highs, with oil trending lower (WTI ~88, Brent ~100), a slightly flatter yield curve, and the 10-year around 5.28%. He cites limited economic news beyond FOMC minutes reaffirming a 25 bp hike and expectations for another hike this year, alongside a well-received ~40B 10-year auction. He describes a bifurcated backdrop: higher-for-lo
Tuesday - October 6, 2026
David Bahnsen delivers the Daily Recap from New York City while Brian Szytel meets with a manager, noting that he, Brian, and Kenny Molina are in their annual week of meetings with many money managers, having completed 16 meetings in two days and not yet halfway through. He says early takeaways include the biggest area of disagreement among managers being differing views on AI, while the common co
Monday - October 5, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Tqofwe
The Monday Dividend Cafe is recorded mid-day during a “money manager week” of meetings at Apollo, Blackstone, and Golden Tree. With earnings season starting, quarterly earnings expectations have risen 1.8% in five days, with upward revisions concentrated in technology and downward revisions in consumer staples and industrials, shaping the bar for surprises
The Past, Present, and Future of The Bahnsen Group
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4iVv0QW
David Bahnsen announces a temporary shift from the usual Dividend Cafe format: a normal episode on Monday, a future deep dive on long-term bond yields, and a later recap of the firm’s annual New York meetings with money managers. He marks the closing (September 30) of The Bahnsen Group becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Hightower Advisors, explaining wh
Thursday - October 1, 2026
Brian Szytel hosts The Dividend Cafe from New York City on the first day of Q4, noting a benign market day (Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq flat) and a slightly steepening yield curve. He argues that higher long-term rates repricing toward nominal growth is natural, not inherently sinister, and says the first “cracks” to watch would be widening high-yield credit spreads, which remain very tight, suggesti
Wednesday - September 30, 2026
On Sept. 30, Brian Szytel reports a bifurcated market into quarter-end, with the Dow down about 200 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise, led by large-cap growth; yields steepen as the 10-year and 30-year move higher. A cooler-than-expected PCE inflation report (core and year-over-year) lowers implied odds of an October Fed hike to about 35%, though Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could shift ex
Tuesday - September 29, 2026
Brian Szytel reviews modest market declines (Dow -131, S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.10%) with major indexes still up YTD, and focuses on the bond selloff pushing the 10-year yield to about 5.24% amid speculation about 6%. He argues higher yields reflect both higher nominal growth near 6% and a Fed intent on reducing its balance sheet, with limited ability for Treasury financing tactics to meaningfull
Monday - September 28, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4AC4xy1
From Las Vegas ahead of an investment conference, the host recaps a volatile market day (Dow -347, S&P -0.77%, Nasdaq -0.92%) while the S&P sits near all-time highs despite very weak breadth: ~60% of S&P 500 names are down 20%+ and the market has seen repeated 52-week lows exceed highs; he clarifies a misunderstood stat showing the weighted ave
Unapologetic Energy Bull: Meet Me in the Middle
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4rwGwnT
David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe and explains he chose to focus on an energy investment theme rather than the week’s surge in bond yields. He argues investors and media overemphasize headlines about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and WTI prices, while the energy sector remains largely ignored due to its small S&P 500 weight (about 3.5% versus
Thursday - September 24, 2026
On Thursday, Sept. 24, Brian Szytel recaps a down Dow day with the S&P and Nasdaq flat as markets rebounded late on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks potentially easing the Strait of Hormuz situation; WTI still rose about 3% to roughly $95. He highlights the bigger story as higher interest rates, with the 10-year yield up another 10 bps to about 5.21% and up 120 bps year-to-date, arguing media ma
Wednesday - September 23, 2026
Brian Szytel reports a broad market decline driven by a bond selloff, with yields rising across the curve in a bearish flattener; the 10-year finished near 5.11%, while the 2s/10s spread remained about 21 bps. He attributes the rate move to stronger flash PMI data in services (58.7 vs. 55.7) and manufacturing (57 vs. 53.5), alongside hotter input inflation tied to fuel and transportation. Energy m
Tuesday - September 22, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the S&P 500 finished flat, the Dow fell 185 points, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.5% as long-end yields eased slightly and the 10-year held near 4.95%. He notes financial conditions have loosened a bit since the Fed’s recent hike, with stocks higher, tight credit spreads, and long yields down, while markets still price more restrictive Fed policy even as W
Monday - September 21, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4y9YwqV
David Bahnsen delivers a quick Monday Dividend Cafe update from Chicago after travel disruptions, covering a strong market day led by communication services and technology while energy fell on a nearly 5% drop in oil; he notes the S&P 500 is near an all-time high even as market breadth has deteriorated sharply. He discusses rising margin debt and how i
Thursday - September 17, 2026
Brian Szytel reports a pre-close market rebound from Newport Beach on Thursday, September 17, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P up over 1%, the Nasdaq up about 1.5%, and the 10-year yield falling to 4.95% as the curve flattens; oil prices eased and recent sector rotation briefly reversed as tech regained bids and equal-weight indexes underperformed cap-weighted. On the economic calendar
"The Most Performative Interest Rate Hike Ever"
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4j4mxuI
David Bahnsen discusses the Fed’s quarter-point rate hike, arguing it was largely “performative” because markets had already tightened financial conditions and the Fed is now following rather than leading. He notes the fed funds futures market implies an 87% chance of another hike this year and reviews the political speculation around Chairman Kevin Warsh
Wednesday - September 16, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a volatile Fed day in which the FOMC unanimously raised rates 25 basis points, moving the range from 3.50–3.75 to 3.75–4.00, a move largely priced in. He notes dot plots implying one more hike before year-end (around 4.00–4.25), with market reaction reflecting short-term yields up slightly, long-term yields down slightly, and the 10-year unchanged near 5.01. Markets sold off (D
Tuesday - September 15, 2026
Brian Szytel reviews a down market day driven by oil staying above $100 (Brent 108, WTI 105), ongoing Middle East tensions, and the 10-year Treasury closing near 5%, noting equities are only a few percent off highs. Using an S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of about $406/share next year, he argues a 5% pullback implies ~17.5x forward earnings and a 10% drawdown ~16.6x—normal moves that would
Monday - September 14, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dB7zsq
David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from the Newport Beach studio, recaps the show’s weekly content cadence, and reviews a relatively calm market day after a volatile weekend. Nasdaq and S&P finished down about 0.5% with semiconductors down 5.6%, tied to a weekend letter from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging major AI labs to slow development
Thursday - September 10, 2026
Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70
What 9/11 Meant and Still Means for Investors
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4ioMZyT
On September 11, 2026, David Bahnsen marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with reflections as an investor, an American, and a person, focusing mainly on market lessons. He notes the S&P 500 was already down about 30% from its 2000 high before 9/11 amid falling earnings and a valuation re-rating, then reviews how markets closed for four days and fell shar
Wednesday - September 9, 2026
Brian Szytel reports a third straight market decline (Dow -405, S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside falling bond prices and a 10-year yield up 5 bps to 4.84%, noting Treasury talk of increasing long-bond buybacks to $6B is too small versus ~$5.5T of long debt and was met by higher yields. He walks through a hypothetical of refinancing all long-term debt with T-bills, which could flatten the cur
Tuesday - September 8, 2026
Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets after Labor Day, noting the Dow fell 628 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined, though the Dow remains up over 10% year-to-date. Oil prices rose (WTI near $93.6, Brent near $98) amid heightened US-Iran/Middle East tensions, lifting inflation expectations and interest rates and raising concern about energy as a consumption “tax.” He highlig
The Real AI Problem Made Simple
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4hbt99a
This special edition of The Dividend Cafe argues that the key issue investors are missing in the AI story is not AI’s usefulness but whether massive AI infrastructure spending will earn an adequate return on invested capital. The episode highlights how major tech firms are raising unprecedented debt and equity—despite strong earnings—because free cash flow
Thursday - September 3, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a strong Thursday rally in risk assets after a modestly positive prior session, citing improved market breadth, dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, slightly lower rates, and reduced September hike odds from 68% to 50/50 amid a split committee, easing inflation, and a normalizing labor market; he also notes political sensitivity ahead of November midterms. The Dow rose 624
Wednesday - September 2, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a modest market rebound after three down equity sessions, with weak internals and low volume as investors await Friday’s non-farm payrolls and next week’s CPI. The Dow rose 295 points, the S&P 500 gained 35 points (nearly 0.5%), and the Nasdaq added about 0.4%; rates were largely unchanged with the 10-year near 4.78, oil held around $90 WTI, and the yield curve remained ste
Tuesday - September 1, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a down market day driven by heightened Iran-U.S. tensions, higher oil prices (WTI up 5.9% near $90; Brent near $95), and rising interest rates (10-year around 4.79%), with the Dow down 419 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1% as long-duration assets weakened. Economic data was slightly below forecasts but still constructive, including 7.2 million job openings and a
Monday - August 31, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cPVI9C
David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action (Dow -374, S&P -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%; 10-year yield 4.76% up 3 bps), with energy leading on oil up 3% to about $86 and communication services lagging. He briefly shares midterm Senate race dynamics based on conversations with analysts, noting multiple paths for Democrats to win or lose the majority and warning
Profit from the Profit Part 2
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UKOOfH
David Bahnsen hosts the final Friday Dividend Cafe of August as a part two discussion tied to his new book, "Profit for the Profit," outlining the philosophy and application of dividend growth investing and responding to common critiques. He argues investors should seek returns from the underlying profit-making enterprise rather than sentiment-driven momen
Thursday - August 27, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps Thursday, August 27 markets, highlighting a major AI chip company’s better-than-expected earnings and sharply higher 2028 guidance that lifted its stock 10% and pushed all three major indices higher, led by the Nasdaq, while bonds were flat with the 10-year at 4.67% and WTI oil up about 2% near $83. Economic updates included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (203k vs.
Wednesday - August 26, 2026
Brian Szytel reports markets were essentially flat, while bonds moved as the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.66; oil was slightly lower amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz deal talk. Economic data was mostly positive, but headline PCE was 0.3 vs 0.2 expected (3.7% YoY) while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2 (3.3% YoY), lifting Fed futures to a 40% chance of a September hike, which he views as largely
Tuesday - August 25, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a positive market day with the Dow up about 160 points, the S&P up roughly a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq up two-thirds as rates fell (10-year down seven basis points to 4.63) and oil dropped about 4.5%, aiding a tech and semiconductor/AI rotation. Economic data came in weaker, including slightly lower consumer confidence, softer new home sales, and a weaker Richmond
Monday - August 24, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U6PdsL
David Bahnsen opens from The Bahnsen Group’s new Santa Barbara (Montecito) office, briefly recaps markets (Dow up ~0.25%, S&P down ~0.25%, Nasdaq down ~0.75% led by semiconductors; staples and financials up, tech down), and argues recent 10-year yield trading has been relatively range-bound. He focuses on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announced 30
Profit from the Profit Part 1
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cNKVg3
David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe from Southern California and previews his new book, Profit from the Profit, releasing Tuesday, explaining it reflects the same message he has shared weekly since starting the commentary during the September 2008 financial crisis and later branding it Dividend Cafe in 2015. He outlines an investment philosophy fo
Thursday - August 20, 2026
Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets (Dow -703, S&P -0.8%, Nasdaq -1%) and notes blue-chip weakness despite better-than-expected earnings, attributing it to consumer budget pressure from higher energy prices. He discusses yield-curve moves with short-end yields rising more than the long end after Treasury talk of buying back longer-dated bonds funded by T-bills, framing it largely as sig
Wednesday - August 19, 2026
Brian Szytel reviews a rotation-heavy market day with the Dow up 120 points, the S&P 500 up about 0.25%, and the Nasdaq slightly higher, as equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted amid big moves in pharma and some late earnings from tech/AI. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 7 bps to about 4.64%, following remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about shifting issuance toward th
Tuesday - August 18, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a modest down day in markets with the Dow down 116 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1.3%, noting S&P advancers outnumbered decliners and equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted in a rotation toward value; the 10-year Treasury closed near 4.71%. Economic data was mixed: pending home sales fell 2.3% versus an expected 0.6% gain, housing starts missed at 1.2 milli
Monday - August 17, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bTEA2m
From Charlottesville, host David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action: the Dow fell 273 points (~0.5%), the S&P 500 also about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq about 0.3%, with energy the only positive sector (up ~0.9%) and communication services the worst (down ~1.5%); the 10-year yield ended near 4.73% as the yield curve steepened. He highlights a chart showing A
A Letter To My Daughter as She Goes Off to College
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U1KSqA
David Bahnsen opens the Friday Dividend Cafe with a personal episode, reading a verbatim letter to his daughter Sadie ahead of moving her into the University of Virginia. He praises her discipline and independence in earning admission while still enjoying friendships and fun, and urges her not to “peak in college” but to use the next four years as a spring
Thursday - August 13, 2026
Brian Szytel reviews a broad market rally with the Dow up 69 points, the S&P 500 up two-thirds of a percent, and the Nasdaq up eight-tenths, alongside a modest bond rally as the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.65; WTI oil declined about 2.5% to $81. He highlights disinflationary data following a cooler CPI, with PPI coming in flat versus expectations of +0.2 and core PPI at 0.2 vers
Wednesday - August 12, 2026
On Wednesday, August 12, Brian Szytel reports a quiet, mixed market day as July CPI came in essentially in line with expectations, leaving stocks and bonds little changed (Dow flat, S&P up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 0.5%, 10-year unchanged). Headline CPI rose 0.1% month over month to 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2%, with medical care, airfares, used vehicles, and shelter contributing. Fed
Tuesday - August 11, 2026
Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Tuesday, August 11, describing a quiet, rudderless market session ahead of tomorrow’s CPI, with the Dow and S&P down about 0.3% and the Nasdaq down about 0.6%, the 10-year near 4.69%, and oil up about 1%. He notes better-than-expected NFIB small business optimism (99.8 vs. 97) and slightly stronger existing home sales (~4.1 million) though housing remains fr
Monday - August 10, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4hmEuE3
David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe, recapping a quiet market day with the Dow down 60 points, the S&P essentially flat, and the Nasdaq down 32 bps, while noting rapid credit-spread tightening and the 10-year yield closing at 4.7%. Energy led sectors as oil rose over 5%, while REITs lagged; he highlights that most S&P 500 profit-margin exp
Ten Economic Principles Worth Fighting For
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yXEhxi
David Bahnsen argues investors focus too much on describing or predicting the economy and not enough on prescriptive first principles about what a market economy ought to be. He outlines 10 “non-negotiable” tenets of free enterprise: private property; the profit motive; division of labor; innovation and progress; capital and labor enhancing one another (re
Thursday - August 6, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a down Thursday market session (Dow -464, S&P -13, Nasdaq flat) amid ongoing rotation between tech and value, with the 10-year yield up 6 bps to 4.68%. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 199k, a historically low level supportive of strong employment, and Q2 productivity rising 1.4% versus 0.6% expected, which he notes could be disinflationary over time alongside
Wednesday - August 5, 2026
On Wednesday, August 5, Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the Dow rose 263 points while the S&P fell 12 and the Nasdaq dropped about 0.8%, with financials, healthcare, and staples leading as tech lagged after the prior day’s momentum rally. He says markets are increasingly desensitized to the war and are more supported by fundamentals, highlighting Q2 earnings where 61% of companies have
Tuesday - August 4, 2026
On August 4, Brian Szytel recaps a massive cross-asset rally as markets price hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: oil fell 6% to $75, the 10-year yield dropped 7 bps to 4.61%, and stocks and bonds rose (Dow +907, S&P +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.6% led by semis/AI). He notes the market has become desensitized to Middle East risk and remains skewed upward with major indexes up 12.5%–14% YTD, bu
Monday - August 3, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yUosr7
David Bahnsen reviews a “bizarre” July in which long-term yields rose, the Iran ceasefire/MOU collapsed, semiconductors fell sharply, and the yen hit multi-decade lows—yet the S&P 500 finished flat with improved breadth—and notes a strong early-August rally led by mega-cap tech while oil fell and energy dipped. He highlights massive hyperscaler capital
Thursday - July 30, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a sharp market reversal day as prior rotation out of semiconductors flipped into a strong tech rebound, with semis up about 7% and several large names rising 10–15%. The Dow gained 613 points (+1.2%), the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.8%. A major software company posted blowout earnings and surged 16%—adding roughly $490B in market cap—though the broader softw
Everything We Learned about the New Fed This Week
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4wwsHI5
David Bahnsen reviews this week’s Fed meeting, noting some credible forecasts expected a surprise 25–50 bp hike, though the Fed ultimately held. He argues the Fed’s rationale was unusually direct: financial conditions tightened without a hike as yields rose across the curve, and further tightening should prioritize stopping balance-sheet expansion after $2
Wednesday - July 29, 2026
Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 29, describing a volatile “Fed day” as the FOMC held Fed funds unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets swung sharply and finished broadly lower, with the Dow down 1,153 points (about 2%), the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and Nasdaq down 1.7%, alongside higher rates, rising Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, and WTI up nearly 7%. He notes a dra
Tuesday - July 28, 2026
David Bahnsen fills in for Brian Szytel with the Dividend Cafe daily recap, noting the Dow rose 537 points (over 1%) while the Nasdaq fell 22 basis points, underscoring a market rotation away from semiconductors and some technology (semiconductors down almost 5%) toward more traditional/value areas. Healthcare led with a 2.3% gain, followed by consumer staples up 2% and materials up 1.66%, while e
Monday - July 27, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yKPl0J
The Monday Dividend Cafe reviews a volatile market session where early gains faded despite oil dropping on renewed Iran-talk hopes; the Nasdaq finished slightly down, the S&P flat, and the Dow up 0.5%. The host flags NVIDIA’s move to guarantee $250B in financing for an OpenAI data center and notes NVIDIA fell 5%, while highlighting widening CCC credit
Inflation vs. Deflation in an Age of AI
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TdOnKh
David Bahnsen discusses whether the U.S. has shifted from the 1990–2020 disinflation era to a higher structural inflation range, engaging Dr. Lacy Hunt’s view that the prior 1.5–2.5% equilibrium may have broken toward 3.5–5% as globalization wanes. Bahnsen argues globalization aided disinflation but wasn’t the sole driver, emphasizing Hunt’s framework that
Thursday - July 23, 2026
In this Dividend Cafe Thursday episode, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market selloff with stocks and bonds down as the Dow fell nearly 600 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.4% while the 10-year yield rose about four basis points to 4.7%. He attributes pressure to escalating Middle East tensions after a Houthi attack in the Red Sea, driving oil sharply higher (WTI up 6% near
Wednesday - July 22, 2026
On Wednesday, July 22, Brian Szytel reports a quiet, mostly flat market day: the Dow and S&P 500 were flat, the Nasdaq fell about 0.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield rose roughly three basis points to 4.66%, and WTI oil gained about 2.5% amid continued Middle East turmoil. With no economic news, he discusses a Goldman Sachs white paper on global demographics, noting slowing or negative population
Tuesday - July 21, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a Tuesday market rebound led by momentum stocks and semiconductors, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P 500 up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq up 1.3%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.63% and oil climbed to about $84 WTI and $91 Brent amid the Iran war, pressuring inflation expectations and rates. With no major economic data, he focuses on demand-pull inflation and the lagged r
Monday - July 20, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yvcd4b
David Bahnsen reviews a modest down day for markets as Iran tensions and reported American casualties push oil above $80 (ending above $83), with the Dow down ~300, S&P -19 bps, Nasdaq -5 bps, and the 10-year yield at 4.59%; communication services and energy led while healthcare lagged. He cites IPO froth cooling, noting SpaceX below $120 versus a $135
Five Things I Worry About and Five Things I Don’t
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fhExhw
From the Newport Beach studio, David outlines five market concerns and five items he is not worried about. His worries are: extreme S&P 500 concentration (top 10 near 39% and semiconductors rising to ~20% weight), speculative retail behavior (surging ETF inflows, levered ETF growth, and elevated options/0DTE activity), a “right pocket vs left pocket” d
Thursday - July 16, 2026
Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, July 16, describing a down market day driven by rotation out of tech and semis, with the Nasdaq down 1.5% versus modest declines in the Dow and S&P, and equal-weighted S&P outperforming cap-weighted by over 160 bps. He highlights ongoing housing weakness: existing home sales at the lowest pace since 1995, affordability pressures with mortgage p
Wednesday - July 15, 2026
On Wednesday, July 15, Brian Szytel reports modest market gains (Dow +150, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%) amid a positive early Q2 earnings tone, though Middle East tensions temper sentiment and momentum tech (semis and software) has been pressured. He highlights notable strength in financials, citing rising lending, M&A, and capital markets activity, with investment banking up about 30%, ca
Tuesday - July 14, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a mixed but positive market day with the Dow up about 45 points, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up just under 1%, helped by a broad financial-sector rally despite somewhat mixed large-bank earnings. Oil rose with increased Middle East tensions and volatility around the Strait of Hormuz. The main story was a better-than-expected CPI report: headline CPI fell 0.4% versus
Monday - July 13, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bF0WEu
The Monday Dividend Cafe recaps a volatile market day that resembled prior Iran-tension selloffs: oil surged nearly 10%, energy rose over 3%, tech fell over 2%, semiconductors dropped about 4.77%, the Nasdaq fell over 1.5%, the S&P 500 was down 80 bps, and the Dow slipped 138 points, while the 10-year yield rose 6 bps to 4.63%. The host discusses an ap
Good Enough for a 19-Year-Old?
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yeyV0d
David Bahnsen uses the idea of asking 19-year-olds what’s popular to critique a growing tendency among investors to allocate capital based on youth trends and “shiny objects” rather than fundamentals. He distinguishes learning about generational preferences from turning those preferences into portfolio decisions, arguing this misreads Peter Lynch’s “invest
Thursday - July 9, 2026
In this midweek Dividend Cafe (Thursday, July 9), Brian Szytel notes a mixed recovery in markets amid renewed volatility tied to Middle East tensions, while oil prices pulled back slightly and interest rates were flat to slightly lower. Economic updates included initial jobless claims coming in a bit better than expected, suggesting steady, healthy employment, and weaker existing home sales (down
Wednesday - July 8, 2026
Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 8, discussing increased volatility tied to escalating US-Iran tensions after Iran struck oil tankers and the US retaliated against multiple military targets, with oil up about 5% and markets modestly lower but without a clear flight to safety (dollar slightly up, yields up ~3 bps, gold and silver down). He notes rotation dynamics and highlights s
Tuesday - July 7, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a quiet Tuesday, July 7, with markets closing modestly lower amid increased U.S.–Iran tensions involving tanker attacks and restrictions on Iran’s oil exports; crude rose about 3% to roughly $70.56 while gold dipped. Tech led the decline as semiconductors sold off, with the S&P 500 down ~0.5%, the Dow ~0.4%, and the Nasdaq down a little over 1%. Economic news was limited, b
Monday - July 6, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bvLEBZ
In the Monday Dividend Cafe, the host recaps a post–three-day weekend market rally with the Dow closing above 53,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq up over 1%, while the 10-year Treasury remained around 4.47%. He notes TIP spreads show reduced inflation expectations even as longer yields imply stronger real growth, arguing the
Thursday - July 2, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps an unusual pre–July 4th market session with the Dow up 594 points (+1.15%), the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.8% amid a continued unwind in momentum stocks, especially semiconductors, while value and dividend sectors outperformed and the equal-weight S&P beat the cap-weighted index. The key driver was a softer June non-farm payrolls report (57,000 jobs vs. 110,000
A Different Kind of Mid-Year Report
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vddsCn
In a midyear 2026 Dividend Cafe holiday episode, the host reviews surprises and themes shaping markets: despite the “Mag Seven” down about 2%, the S&P 493 is up roughly 15–16% and the overall index about 10%, reflecting a major rotation toward value, smaller caps, and sectors like industrials, utilities, and energy. Another surprise is the two-year Tre
Wednesday - July 1, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a down, rotation-driven market day from West Palm Beach, with the Dow near flat, the S&P 500 slightly lower, and the Nasdaq weaker amid a sharp semiconductor sell-off (down 5–10%) even as some software and communication services names rose. He cites strong Korean AI chip export growth (70% year over year) but suggests investors may be pricing semis for perpetually outsized
Tuesday - June 30, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps markets on June 30, the last day of Q2, noting a strong first half for the Dow and the best Nasdaq quarter since 2020, with tech leading as the Dow rose 136 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the 10-year yield increased 8 bps. He highlights the Japanese yen at its weakest versus the dollar in over 40 years (~162), describing the yen carry trade
Monday - June 29, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R54h8Z
David Bahnsen previews a forthcoming mid-year Dividend Cafe recap and notes a CNBC interview on market excesses in AI/tech and investor behavior. Markets rose sharply (Dow +300, S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +2%) led by communication services; Google’s first day in the Dow coincided with Verizon’s exit, while materials fell. He argues recent breadth versus index p
The Last Best Hope...of Markets
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4v7DfvO
From Grand Rapids, David Bahnsen reflects on a speech and borrows Abraham Lincoln’s “last best hope” language to argue that markets—properly understood as broad venues of human exchange, entrepreneurship, and capital formation, not merely the stock market—are inherently forward-looking declarations of optimism. He contrasts market incentives with media and
Thursday - June 25, 2026
Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, June 25, describing a mixed but slightly positive market with a growth-to-value rotation as equal-weighted indexes outpaced cap-weighted, rates dipped, and oil rose slightly while Brent returned near pre US-Iran levels; despite one major AI semiconductor earnings beat lifting parts of the space, much of tech was down. He reviews heavy economic releases
Wednesday - June 24, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a Wednesday session that began with a recovery bounce led by technology as interest rates and WTI fell, but the rally fizzled and selling in tech resumed while value names held up better. He says markets are digesting valuation pressure with stocks trading around 22–23x earnings and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could affect oil price
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