Fault Lines
Fault Lines is the National Security Institute's flagship podcast, providing quick updates three times a week on national security and foreign policy debates in America. The show features a regular cast of foreign policy experts including NSI Founder Jamil N. Jaffer, Advisory Board Member Lester Munson, and Senior Fellows Morgan Viña and Jessica Jones. Listeners can learn about issues dominating headlines and news stories they may have missed.
Episodes
Fault Lines Episode 617: The China Colossus: Understanding Beijing's New Mercantilist Economic Model
Today, John, Les, and Special Guest Dinny McMahon—Head of China Markets Research at Trivium—trace the rise and slow-motion collapse of China's old economic model, and the technology and export-led manufacturing behemoth replacing it. For decades, China's economy ran on a simple engine: a high-debt construction and investment boom with real estate at the core and as the primary store of middle-clas
Fault Lines Episode 616: Anaconda or Armistice: The Squeeze on Tehran
Today, Les, John, and special guest Richard Goldberg assess where the Iran conflict stands and where it is headed. The Strait of Hormuz is once again a flashpoint, with U.S. naval forces blockading traffic while escorting commercial shipping — a posture that has helped push down gas prices but left Tehran cut off from economic relief. Iran's missile manufacturing capacity has taken serious damage,
Fault Lines Episode 615: Good Vibes and Guns: NATO's Next Chapter
Today, Les, John, and special guest Retired General Doug Lute, assess the NATO summit held this week in Ankara, where 32 allied leaders gathered against a backdrop of persistent tensions over burden-sharing, Greenland, and the future of the transatlantic relationship. The summit's communiqué delivered a strong, direct reaffirmation of collective defense, and allied progress on defense spending gav
Fault Lines Episode 614: Drones and Diplomacy
Today, Jess, Les, John, and Andrew cover a busy news cycle spanning the skies over Moscow to the streets of America. Ukrainian drones — produced domestically and flying hundreds of miles — are hammering Russian energy infrastructure and forcing Putin to publicly acknowledge fuel shortages across the country for the first time, as air defenses are redeployed from Crimea to protect the capital. 
Fault Lines Episode 613: After the Earthquake — Venezuela and the Limits of American Soft Power
Today, Les, John, Andrew, and Andy examine the devastating earthquake that has killed more than 1,500 people in Venezuela, a number expected to climb, and what the U.S. response reveals about American humanitarian leadership in the Trump era. Washington has committed $150 million in aid flowing through UN agencies and NGOs, with DART teams and fire and rescue units from across the country, includi
Fault Lines Episode 612: Engines of Alliance: A Defense Deal for Turkey?
Today, Jess, Algene, John, and Andrew discuss reports that the Trump administration is considering major defense sales to Turkey, despite bipartisan opposition in Congress. Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019 after purchasing Russia's S-400 air defense system, but as alliance leaders gather in Turkey next month for the NATO Summit, supporters cite its strategic importance to the allia
Fault Lines Episode 611: El Tigre and Rainbow Face: Picks for Latin America and the Wizards
Today, Jess, Les, Algene, and John dig into two closely contested elections that could reshape Latin American politics. In Colombia, right-wing candidate Abelardo De La Espriella holds a narrow lead in the presidential runoff, and in Peru, Keiko Fujimori also maintains a razor-thin advantage over leftist Roberto Sánchez as electoral authorities continue reviewing disputed ballots. The team examine
Fault Lines Episode 610: Murky Waters and Muddied Deals
Today, Les, John, Andrew, Matt, and Amy dig into the ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations playing out in Switzerland, where a publicly snubbed Vice President and a shifting cast of regional brokers — Qatar and Pakistan prominent among them — signal just how little control Washington holds over the process. The Strait of Hormuz remains a pressure point, with the southern half open only under U.S.
Fault Lines Episode 609: MOU: Hormuz Confuz
Today, Les, Amy, John, and Andrew dig into the alleged 14-point memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. The deal's broad outlines would have Iran maintain the status quo of its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, with a 300-billion-dollar economic development commitment and a 60-day window to negotiate a final agreement. Cri
Fault Lines Episode 608: Deal or No Deal: The Upcoming U.S.-Iran Nuclear Agreement
Today, Les, Jamil, Jess, and John break down the emerging agreement between Washington and Tehran, set to be signed Friday in Geneva under Pakistani auspices. The framework would open 60 days of formal negotiations, with the U.S. lifting its naval blockade in exchange for limitations on Iranian uranium enrichment — though the full text of the MOU has yet to be released. Trump personally called New
Fault Lines Episode 607: FISA and FIFA
Today, Jess, John, Les, and Amy examine the fate of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) as it tumbles towards its’ first lapse since 2008. Both chambers have stalled on reauthorization amid disputes over acting DNI Bill Pulte's nomination and a broader debate over whether existing reforms are sufficient to prevent the authority from being turned against American citizen
Fault Lines Episode 606: North Korea: Juche or Joining the Authoritarian Bloc?
Today, Les, John, and Andy take stock of a North Korea that has used Western distraction to significantly expand its strategic position. Pyongyang reportedly plans to exponentially increase its’ nuclear enrichment capacity with the construction of the new Yongbyon nuclear facility and is undertaking a housing construction boom that allegedly rivals major American cities. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping's re
Fault Lines Episode 605: Iran Hits Israel: 100 Days and Escalating
Today, Jess, Jamil, and John break down the latest from the Iran conflict, now nearly 100 days old with no clear end in sight. This weekend Iran launched strikes against Israel following Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Israel struck back overnight — all while a ceasefire nominally remains in place. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stays suppressed, Iran continue
Fault Lines Episode 604: Round Two for Tariffs
Today, Jess, Algene, and Matt examine the Trump administration's latest tariffs on imports from 60 countries, including China, the EU, Canada, and the UK, imposed under a new legal framework targeting failures to combat forced labor in global supply chains. The move follows the Supreme Court's rejection of the administration's earlier tariffs, which were imposed under the International Emergency E
Fault Lines Episode 603: Trump’s AI Exec Order: The Next Phase of the AI Arms Race?
Today, John, Andy, Andrew, and Matt break down the new AI Executive Order, which dropped yesterday after weeks of interagency debate and a last-minute halt before its original signing ceremony. The order tasks DHS with facilitating AI tool access for federal and state agencies, puts Treasury in charge of a new AI clearinghouse, and establishes a 30-day federal review window before models are relea
Fault Lines Episode 602: Reframing Asian Alliances: Hegseth at Shangri-La
Today, John, Amy, Algene, and Andy break down Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, where he outlined the administration's strategy for the Indo-Pacific. Hegseth struck a softer tone than last year, framing U.S. alliances around shared interests rather than shared values, emphasizing hard power deterrence along the island chain, and calling for greater burden sharing
Fault Lines Episode 601: Losing the Plot in Iran?
Today, Les, Algene, and John dig into the murky details of a reported Memorandum of Understanding between U.S. and Iran— a document that Iran refutes, hasn't been signed by Trump, and hasn't actually been seen by the public. A controlled leak to Axios attempting to outline the MOU's terms — including sanctions waivers, a 60-day ceasefire, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days — quic
Fault Lines Episode 600: Full Circle to Tehran
Today, Les, Algene, Andy, and John mark Fault Lines' 600th episode by returning to one of the show's defining subjects — Iran — as a proposed deal reportedly nears completion even as the two countries exchange fire. The Trump administration wants out of the conflict, and while Iran's missile and nuclear programs have been degraded, the Supreme Leader is publicly committed to perpetual conflict wit
Fault Lines Episode 599: Epic Fury, No Exit Strategy?
Today, Les, Jess, and Morgan break down the latest developments in Iran as diplomatic and political pressure mounts on multiple fronts. Netanyahu has reportedly expressed frustration with Trump's negotiating tactics, while the administration may have been weighing a role for deeply unpopular former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a post-strike political transition. With oil shortages alre
Fault Lines Episode 598: Containment Under Pressure: Ebola and Global Security
Today, Jess, Algene, Matt, and Marc examine the rapidly escalating Ebola outbreak in Central Africa, where a rare strain has already killed an estimated 131 people across roughly 500 suspected cases. The World Health Organization has declared an international public health emergency, and unlike previous Ebola outbreaks, this Bundibugyo strain has no approved vaccine or targeted treatment. The outb
Fault Lines Episode 597: Starmer’s Stormy Sturm and Drang
Today, Les, Jess, and Amy dig into the political turbulence rattling the United Kingdom and Europe's broader leadership landscape. Rumors over the weekend that Prime Minister Keir Starmer would resign proved unfounded — he has confirmed he is staying — but the episode surrounding his potential departure exposed deep fractures in British politics. Labour suffered significant losses in local electio
Fault Lines Episode 596: Peloponnesian Warning: Xi, Trump, and Taiwan
Today, Morgan, John, Amy, and Matt break down President Trump's travel to China and what it signals about the trajectory of the world's most consequential bilateral relationship. The visit produced visible wins on trade, including Chinese commitments to purchase American oil and an agreement that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open but Chinese state media has been conspicuously silent on the d
Fault Lines Episode 595: Iran Reloads as the Gulf Strikes Back
Today, Jess, Jamil, Algene, and Andy discuss the latest developments in the Iran conflict, including reports that Iran has restored access to 30 of its 33 launch sites and growing scrutiny following Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s Capitol Hill testimony on the roughly $29 billion cost of Operation Epic Fury. Meanwhile, nuclear negotiations continue as reports indicate that UAE has begun launching
Fault Lines Episode 594: The Beijing Summit's Fine Print
Today, Les, Jess, Morgan, Matt, and Marc examine what to expect — and what to be skeptical of — as President Trump travels to China this week for a face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping on Thursday. The summit follows their last encounter in the fall, but this time on Chinese soil, with trade and economic tensions dominating the agenda even as flashpoint issues like Taiwan and Iran linger at the ma
Fault Lines Episode 593: Cracks in the Kremlin
Today, Morgan, Les, John, and Matt take stock of a Russia that looks increasingly beleaguered on multiple fronts. With Victory Day tomorrow, Putin is reportedly anxious enough to have called Trump requesting a ceasefire — due to Ukrainian threats to Moscow, military vehicles and troops for the parade are expected to be scaled back, and Putin has ordered an internet blackout. Meanwhile, Russian cas
Fault Lines Episode 592: The Art of the One Pager
Today, Jess, Les, and Algene take stock of a rapidly shifting standoff with Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced that Operation Epic Fury has concluded, with the U.S. moving to a more defensive posture. At the same time, Operation Freedom—aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and escorting commercial shipping—was launched and then paused within roughly a day, as reports emerged tha
Fault Lines Episode 591: A New Hope: America's Fight for the Final Frontier
Today, Les, Jamil, Jess, and Andy examine the growing strategic competition unfolding above the Earth's atmosphere. President Trump's nomination of Douglas Schiess to lead Space Force, combined with the Golden Dome initiative, signals a renewed push to assert American dominance in a domain now crowded with adversaries; China operates at least ten confirmed surveillance satellites and recently laun
Fault Lines Episode 590: Germany, Trump, and the Transatlantic Rift
Today, Morgan, John, Matt, and Algene dig into the latest transatlantic flashpoint after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared that the United States is being humiliated by Iran and the IRGC — prompting Trump to threaten withdrawing U.S. troops from Germany. It's not the first time: Trump issued a similar warning in 2020 over Germany's failure to meet NATO funding targets. The stakes are high
Fault Lines Episode 589: The Oil Order Unravels: UAE leaves OPEC
Today, Jess, Jamil, Les, and John examine the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC, the oil cartel that has shaped global energy markets for decades. The announcement signals mounting strain within OPEC, fueled by Abu Dhabi’s frustration with production limits and rising competition with Riyadh, at a time when tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and historic U.S. energy output are shifting the geopolitical f
Fault Lines Episode 588: Chaos at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
Today, Morgan, Jamil, Amy and Algene examine the alarming incident at the White House Correspondents Dinner, where a 31-year-old teacher fired shots before being tackled by Secret Service agents at the Washington Hilton. The dinner, held annually since 1921 to celebrate the First Amendment and the press, took on heightened stakes this year as President Trump chose to attend for the first time. The
Fault Lines Episode 587: Satellites, Drones, and Deniability: China’s Hand in Iran
Today, Morgan, Les, Matt, and John examine China's deepening covert support for Iran, even as Beijing publicly positions itself as a neutral actor. Chinese satellite companies have entered business relationships with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and China is providing intelligence, drones, and missiles that directly enable Iranian-backed threats — while the United States has seized a shi
Fault Lines Episode 586: Schrödinger's Ceasefire: Iran's Deal That Isn't (Yet)
Today, Les, Jess, Andy, Morgan, and John dig into the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran standoff following Trump's declaration of a ceasefire with no defined end and the collapse of talks that were expected to take place in Pakistan. American strikes have severely degraded Iran's nuclear capabilities and wounded its proxy network, yet a durable resolution remains elusive. Tehran has blocked its
Fault Lines Episode 585: Ceasefire in Name Only: Iran, the Strait, and What Happens Wednesday
Today, Jess, Jamil, Les, and Algene dig into the uncertain end of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire—and whether it functioned as a true ceasefire at all. With the agreement set to expire Wednesday, the past several days have seen a series of developments: the opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. seizure of an Iranian-linked vessel, and growing questions about decision-making inside Tehran.
Fault Lines Episode 584: An Ancient Rivalry Returns: Tensions between Church and State
Today, Les, Jess, and Marc examine the tensions between President Trump and newly elected Pope Leo XIV after the pontiff made remarks about the war in Iran that drew a sharp public rebuke from the President and Vice President. The clash highlights a conflict as old as Western civilization itself — secular rulers and the Catholic Church have contested authority and influence since at least the Inve
Fault Lines Episode 583: Breaking the Silence: Israel and Lebanon's Historic Talks
Today, Jess, Matthew, and Andy examine the first direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in more than 30 years. The talks come in the aftermath of Israel’s military offensive against Hezbollah, which has left more than 2,000 people dead and placed the Iran-backed group under sustained military pressure in southern Lebanon. With Hezbollah functioning as Tehran’s powerful proxy on Israel’s no
Fault Lines Episode 582: Hungary Turns the Page: The Fall of Orbán
Today, Morgan, Les, Andy, and Amy discuss a major political shift in Hungary, where longtime Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was voted out after 16 years in office. His defeat opens the door for Péter Magyar, a former ally turned challenger, to take the reins. While prime minister, Orbán became a defining figure in European politics—closely aligned with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, frequently clashing wit
Fault Lines Episode 581: China’s Unsinkable Aircraft Carriers
Today, Les, Morgan, Algene, and Marc examine China's accelerating base construction in the South China Sea, with new activity at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands drawing fresh scrutiny. Beijing has been building artificial islands since launching a major dredging campaign in 2013, insisting the infrastructure is civilian while expanding its military footprint across waterways that carry roughl
Fault Lines Episode 580: Whiplash on the Strait: Ceasefire or Capitulation?
Today, Jess, Les, Jamie, and Algene break down a dizzying week in U.S.-Iran policy — from the President threatening to "end Iranian civilization" to declaring a two-week ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has signaled new conditions for ships passing through the strait, as both sides trade proposals during the ceasefire. The White House is calling it a historic military operation b
Fault Lines Episode 579: Behind Enemy Lines
Today, Morgan, Jess, Les, Jamil, and John discuss the dramatic recovery of an F-15 airman who was shot down over southwestern Iran, evaded enemy forces, and was ultimately rescued in a complex operation that included a last-minute aircraft failure and on-the-ground improvisation. While the mission marks a rare good news story in the ongoing conflict, it also raises serious questions about Iran’s a
Fault Lines Episode 578: Artemis II: Space Race or New Fantastic Four?
Today, Les, Jess, Matthew, and Algene discuss Artemis 2's launch this week, sending four astronauts on a ten-day trip around the Moon for the first time since Apollo 17 in 1972 — built with allied partners in Canada and Europe, and costing a fraction of what the original moonshots ran.But while Americans are glued to the launch, China and Russia are quietly teaming up on their own lunar ambitions,
Fault Lines Episode 577: Tankers and Tehran: Russia Fills the Gap
Today, Jess, Jamil, Les, and Morgan unpack how the war with Iran is reshaping global energy markets and giving Russia an unexpected boost. As supplies tighten, the demand for Russian oil has surged and the U.S. has temporarily eased restrictions on certain Russian shipments. At the same time, tensions with NATO and coordination with European partners remain uneven. Is this a temporary s
Fault Lines Episode 576: Moscow's Iranian Gambit
Today, Morgan, Jamil, Les, and Andy examine Russia's deepening involvement with Iran as Moscow's list of reliable partners shrinks. With Assad ousted from Syria, Maduro sidelined, and Cuba caught in an American vice grip, Russia is losing friends fast. Russia and Iran have exchanged weapons, intelligence, and military technology — including Iranian drones now being built in Russia and provided bac
Fault Lines Episode 575: Pakistan, the Resurgence No One Saw Coming
Today, Les, Jess, Amy, and Jamie unpack Pakistan’s reemergence on the global stage as a potential intermediary in the U.S.–Iran conflict. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has taken an active role in negotiations, with President Trump appearing open to Islamabad playing a larger diplomatic role. The outreach includes high-level engagement between U.S. officials and Pakistan’s military leadership, sign
Fault Lines Episode 574: Who will be the Persian Delcy Rodriguez?
Today, Jess, Les, Matthew, and Matt unpack the growing uncertainty in Iran as the United States prepares to deploy up to 3,000 additional troops while President Trump advances a 15-point peace plan. At the center of this moment is a fragile leadership picture, with Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly in power but sidelined by injury and inexperience, and figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf emerging as p
Fault Lines Episode 573: Missiles and Mixed Signals
Today, Morgan, Les, Jess, and Matt examine Iran's latest escalation after Tehran launched two intermediate-range missiles at Diego Garcia, a US-UK joint base on Friday. This morning, President Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, claiming weekend progress in talks with Iran. The announcement comes as Iran demonstrates it can now hold more than just the
Fault Lines Episode 572: Make Ammunition Great Again?
Today, Les, Jess, and Amy examine the Trump administration's rumored $200 billion supplemental appropriations request for operations in Iran — a figure that would exceed every previous wartime funding request. The request comes alongside whispers of a $1.5 trillion defense budget, a staggering 50 percent increase over last year. Both the House and Senate declined to disapprove military action in I
Fault Lines Episode 571: Trump and NATO: Friends or Frenemies?
Today, Jess, Les, Andy, and Algene unpack rising tensions between the Trump administration and NATO, as European allies show little appetite for joining a U.S.-led mission tied to Iran—even as they face rising economic stakes. President Trump’s frustration has been clear, underscoring a growing divide despite longstanding alliance ties.Are the U.S. and NATO still aligned, or drifting toward someth
Fault Lines Episode 570: A New Chapter for Cuba?
Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess examine what the Trump administration’s next move on Cuba might look like. Reports suggest Raúl Castro’s grandson may be quietly engaging with U.S. officials, including Marco Rubio. Some proposals envision allowing Cuban-Americans to invest in the island, though questions remain about whether meaningful economic engagement is possible without major political cha
Fault Lines Episode 569: AI in the Crosshairs: Anthropic vs the DoD
Today, Jess, Morgan, and Les break down a clash between the Pentagon and Anthropic, a leading AI company. The dispute arose after Anthropic said it does not want its technology used for mass surveillance of Americans or in fully autonomous weapons systems, while the Department of Defense insists its tools must remain available for any lawful purpose. When the two sides couldn’t agree, the Pentagon
Fault Lines Episode 568: Trump and Xi: A Summit Without a Plan?
Today, Morgan, Les, and Jess preview the upcoming Trump–Xi summit scheduled for March 31 in Beijing. Despite the significance of a meeting between the leaders of the world’s two largest powers, preparations appear unusually thin. Major head-of-state visits typically involve months of diplomatic groundwork, detailed agendas, and large business delegations, but reports suggest that planning for this
Fault Lines Episode 567: Iran Into Week Two
Today, Jamil, Les, and Andy take stock of the war with Iran as the conflict enters its second week. Tehran has continued missile and drone attacks across the region, including strikes toward Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, even as Iran’s president publicly apologized for some of the attacks. Meanwhile, Israel struck major fuel infrastructure inside Iran, and reports indicate the regime h
Fault Lines Episode 566: One Week of War: What Comes Next?
Today, Les, Morgan, Joshua, and Algene revisit the war with Iran as the conflict enters its seventh day. Iran has launched waves of drones and missiles across the region, including strikes toward Azerbaijan, Turkey, Cyprus, and several Sunni Arab states, in what appears to be an effort to widen the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest Russia is providing targeting intelligence to Iran, while Ukrai
Fault Lines Episode 565: Strikes, Retaliation, and the Risk of a Wider War
Today, Morgan, Andy, Jess, and Marc provide an update on the escalating conflict with Iran following the launch of Operation Epic Fury. The joint U.S.–Israeli campaign is still underway, with strikes targeting Iranian missile and naval capabilities while Tehran and its proxies retaliate against U.S. interests in the region. What began as a decapitation strike has quickly expanded into a broader mi
Fault Lines Episode 564: Epic Fury: Iran After Khamenei
Today, Les, Jamil, and Morgan discuss Operation Epic Fury and the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes across Iran. The operation marks a historic moment in a decades-long confrontation that has shaped every American presidency since 1979. The immediate questions now center on what comes next, for Iran, the region, and the broader international system.Wi
Fault Lines Episode 563: Caribbean Crossfire
Today, Jess, Les, and Andy unpack a deadly and still-unfolding incident off the coast of Cuba, where Cuban authorities opened fire on a Florida-registered speedboat, killing one U.S. resident. Havana claims the vessel carried weapons and gear that could have been used for a terrorist attack and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described the episode as an “unusual incident.” What exactly do
Fault Lines Episode 562: State of the Union: Substance or Show
Today, Morgan, Les, Matt, and Algene break down President Trump’s State of the Union address, the longest in history and filled with familiar themes, economic boasts, and political theater. The President claimed a historic economic turnaround and emphasized tariffs, national strength, and a tough posture against Iran. But while the speech delivered pomp and pageantry, it offered little in the way
Fault Lines Episode 561: More Than Medals: The Politics of the Winter Games
Today, Les, Jamil, Jess, and Morgan unpack the geopolitical undercurrents of the Winter Olympics. The spotlight has fallen on athletes like Alysa Liu, competing for the United States, and Eileen Gu, who chose to represent China after reportedly receiving a lucrative offer from Beijing. Meanwhile, the U.S. men’s hockey team’s victory over favored Canada, America’s medal race with Norway, and even o
Fault Lines Episode 560: The Board of Peace: A New Model for Gaza?
Today, Jess, Morgan, Matt, and Jamil examine the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace, hosted in Washington yesterday. The Board was created to focus on the reconstruction of Gaza and the coordination of post-conflict stabilization efforts. The first meeting brought together officials from dozens of countries, alongside political and business leaders, and included a sweeping promise of $10 bill
Fault Lines Episode 559: Nigeria: Security Support or Strategic Signal?
Today, Morgan, Andy, and Algene discuss the deployment of 100 U.S. troops to Nigeria, with another 100 on the way. The forces are tasked with training, intelligence sharing, and logistical support for Nigerian troops battling extremist violence in the north, but will not participate in combat operations. The move follows President Trump’s sharp criticism of the Nigerian government, including claim
Fault Lines Episode 558: Olympic Curling Scandal and Rubio Speech: This Week in Europe
Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess break down Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, where he closed to a standing ovation. The remarks come at a delicate moment, with European leaders still unsettled by disputes over Greenland and tariffs. Rubio’s tone contrasted sharply with Vice President Vance’s harsher message at last year’s conference, suggesting a stylis
Fault Lines Episode 557: Fueling the Regime: Oil, Sanctions, and Security in Cuba
Today, Jess, Morgan, Les, and Matt examine whether real change could finally be coming to Cuba. The United States has declared a national emergency with respect to Cuba and threatened tariffs on countries supplying the island with oil. This follows Washington’s move to cut off Venezuelan oil, leaving the island increasingly isolated as its economy buckles under decades of mismanagement. At the sam
Fault Lines Episode 556: Netanyahu in Washington: The Iran Calculus
Today, Morgan, Les, Andrew, and Amy unpack Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, where he is set to meet with President Trump to discuss the ongoing U.S. negotiations with Iran. Netanyahu intends to ensure Israeli security interests are addressed and to share intelligence as Washington continues talks with Tehran. While the Trump administration pursues diplomacy, it has
Fault Lines Episode 555: Japan's New Mandate
Today, Les, Jamil, and Jess break down Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s sweeping victory in a snap election, a historic result that gives the Liberal Democratic Party a two-thirds majority in the lower house for the first time since World War II. The outcome dramatically strengthens Takaichi’s political mandate and opens the door to significant shifts in Japan’s national security policy. W
Fault Lines Episode 554: A New New START?
Today Jess, Les, Morgan, and Matt unpack the expiration of New START, the 2010 arms control treaty long described as the last remaining guardrail on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces. Washington and Moscow together hold roughly 85% of the world’s nuclear weapons but Russia has proven an inconsistent arms control partner, raising questions of what, if anything, comes next. Is negotiating a
Fault Lines Episode 553: Backyard Reset: Panama, Colombia, and Washington’s Regional Reboot
Today, Morgan, Jamil, Les, and Andy survey a busy week in the Western Hemisphere, as the Trump administration sharpens its focus closer to home. President Gustavo Petro’s visit to the White House signaled a thaw in U.S.–Colombia relations, with renewed counternarcotics cooperation and discussions around exporting Venezuelan natural gas to Colombia. Meanwhile, Panama’s Supreme Court annulled a cont
Fault Lines Episode 552: Sudan, Regional Rivals, and U.S. Interests
Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Matt turn to Sudan, where a brutal civil war has entered its third year and now stands as one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes. As fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces continues to displace millions and drive staggering civilian casualties, regional powers are deepening their involvement. With Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, a
Fault Lines Episode 551: Between Rhetoric and Reality: What’s Going on in Iran
Fault Lines Episode 551: Between Rhetoric and Reality: What’s Going on in IranToday, Morgan, Jamil, Matt, and Jess take a closer look at Iran, where widespread unrest continues largely out of view. Reports suggest protests have erupted in hundreds of cities, with tens of thousands killed or detained as the regime has tightened control, shut down the internet, and doubled down on its support for th
Fault Lines Episode 550: Inside the New National Defense Strategy
Today, Jess, Les, Morgan, Andrew, and Amy break down the National Defense Strategy released last Friday, the Pentagon’s core blueprint for deterring adversaries and preventing conflict. Issued just weeks after the White House rolled out its National Security Strategy, the NDS reinforces familiar themes: deterring China through strength rather than conflict, pushing allies and partners to shoulder
Fault Lines Episode 549: Chinese Military Purges: Fault Lines or Pacman?
Today, Les, Jamil, and Matt discuss the removal of General Zhang Youxia, one of the most senior figures in China’s military. Zheng’s ouster, amid allegations of corruption and possible espionage, marks the latest in a sweeping series of purges that many say have hollowed out China’s top military leadership, leaving Xi and just one other general at the apex of the Central Military Commission. As Xi
Fault Lines Episode 548: Groundhog Day in Ukraine: Is Peace Any Closer?
Today, Morgan, Les, Matthew, and Jess discuss the latest diplomatic push around Ukraine, following a flurry of high-level meetings at Davos and beyond. President Trump and President Zelensky met for more than an hour as the World Economic Forum wrapped up, while Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff traveled to Russia to meet with Vladimir Putin. For the first time since the war began, American, Ukraini
Fault Lines Episode 547: Tilting at Windmills in Greenland?
Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss Greenland as President Trump arrives at the World Economic Forum in Davos and once again places the Arctic island at the center of global attention. While Trump’s rhetoric has sparked backlash across Europe, the debate raises serious strategic questions: Greenland’s growing importance to U.S. national security, its role in Arctic defense, and why Washing
Episode 546: Fun Friday: America’s Best (and Worst) Foreign Policy Calls
Today, Jess, Les, Andrew, and Joshua take a step back from the headlines for a Fun Friday roundtable on the best and worst American foreign policy decisions, inspired by a recent Council on Foreign Relations article drawing on conversations with the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations. From the Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods to PEPFAR and the peaceful end of the Cold War in Europ
Episode 545: The U.S. Weighs It’s Iran Options
Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Andy revisit Iran as protests continue to escalate and the reported death toll climbs into the thousands. President Trump was briefed this week on response options and has publicly signaled support for demonstrators, saying that “help is on the way.” What does meaningful support for Iranian protesters actually look like? Should the United States openly back regi
Episode 544: Iran on the Edge: Protest, Pressure, and Power
Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss escalating protests across Iran, where economic collapse and political repression are driving nationwide unrest. Demonstrations that began with small business owners have spread to major cities, prompting a violent crackdown by security forces and an internet shutdown. As the regime insists the situation is under control, President Trump has warned publi
Episode 543: Trump, Greenland, and the Arctic Scramble
Today, Jess, Les, Morgan, and Matthew discuss why Greenland has suddenly become a focal point of U.S. foreign policy. President Trump has reignited debate by publicly suggesting the United States should own Greenland, escalating rhetoric well beyond existing basing rights under the 1951 agreement with Denmark. While administration officials have walked back any suggestion of force, Greenlandic lea
Episode 542: Promises and Peace: Can Security Guarantees End the War in Ukraine?
Today, Morgan, Les, Jamil, and Algene discuss the United States’ announcement that it would provide security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a potential peace settlement with Russia. The move follows discussions in Paris between U.S. and European partners, outlining a proposed security architecture for Ukraine and “legally binding” commitments meant to support a postwar order. U.S. Envoy Steve Wi
Episode 541: Operation Maximum Resolve - Regime Tailoring?
Episode 541: Operation Maximum Resolve - Regime Tailoring?Today, Les, Morgan, Jess, and Matthew discuss the U.S. operation in Venezuela over the weekend that extracted President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and brought them to New York to face drug trafficking charges. While the Trump administration says no U.S. troops are currently on the ground and denies plans to run Venezuela’s day-to-day affai
Episode 540: The Holiday Special - Unwrapping 2025
Episode 540: The Holiday Special - Unwrapping 2025Today, Jessica, Jamil, Morgan, Lester, Les, Lipsey, Matthew, and Marc take stock of a consequential year in U.S. national security. From President Trump’s push to brand himself as a “peace president”—highlighted by multiple diplomatic agreements and the Gaza peace plan—to moments of hard power, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear p
Episode 539: Live from RNDF: Ambassador Yui
Episode 539: Live from RNDF: Ambassador YuiAs part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Jamil sit down with Ambassador Yui, Taiwan’s Representative to the United States. With more than 35 years of diplomatic experience—including senior leadership roles in T
Episode 538: Live from RNDF: Mina Faltas and Dmitri Alperovitch
As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Jamil sit down with Washington Harbour Partners Founder and Chief Investment Officer Mina Faltas - with a surprise appearance from NSI Advisory Board Member and Silverado Policy Accelerator co-founder Dmitri Alpe
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