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Rational Dissent

Bianco Research 2 Episodes Oct 9, 2026

Rational Dissent is a podcast by Bianco Research, a firm providing objective research and insights into financial markets for over 20 years. It combines cutting-edge analytics with a highly visual approach to deliver clear, data-driven conclusions. The podcast likely discusses market trends, economic analysis, and investment strategies.

Episodes

Episode 012. What the 'K' is Going on? Oct 9, 2026 00:33:13 Markets and portfolios are keeping top earners spending, while many paycheck-to-paycheck households fall behind as prices have risen faster than wages since COVID.Chapters00:00 - K Shaped Setup01:59 - Income Deciles Breakdown02:38 - Where Money Comes From03:29 - Spending Essentials Gap04:50 - Who Drives Consumption06:02 - Affordability Poll Reality07:45 - Wages Versus Inflation09:27 - Stocks Versu

Episode 011. Three Risks That Matter More Than Terminator AI Oct 2, 2026 00:35:46 Looking past the sensational headlines, we analyze the measurable risks truly driving markets—from Europe's winter energy vulnerabilities and cracks in distressed corporate credit to the Fed funding pressures behind the Treasury basis trade.Chapters00:00 - Introduction & Risks01:46 - Energy Market Breakdown04:07 - Europe Natural Gas Watch07:24 - AI Debt and Credit Spreads09:55 - Oracle and CCC

Episode 010. Will the Bond Market End Humanity? Sep 25, 2026 00:36:00 With the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 16-year highs at 5.20%, is this the return to historical normal—or the start of a market break?Chapters00:00 - Introduction & Market Overview03:01 - Analyzing the Week's Bond Market Frenzy07:09 - Shifts in FOMC Rate Expectations08:27 - Economic Growth and Potential GDP13:30 - Historical Context: 5,000 Years of Interest Rates17:04 - Economic Resilienc

Episode 009. Did the Fed Get it Right? Sep 18, 2026 00:33:45 Kevin Warsh delivered the first hike in a few years as persistent inflation bites, was it the right move?Chapters00:00 – Introduction & FOMC Rate Hike Overview 02:38 – Rising Bond Yields & Financial Conditions 08:02 – Structural Inflation & the Post-Pandemic Economy 24:10 – The 12–0 Vote & Threats to Fed Independence 29:10 – Eliminating Forward Guidance & Outro Learn more a

Episode 008. One Commodity Cycle or Many? Sep 11, 2026 00:35:58 Commodities as an asset class are rarely homogenous. Today, prices are moving together, which either reflects a structural relationship or a set of unrelated drivers arriving at once.Rate Cut Cycle Returns Table: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/09/rate_cut_cycle_returns.pngChapters00:00 - Introduction & The Commodity Rally02:25 - How Commodity Total Return is Calculated06:02

Episode 007. Are Yields Good Enough To Compete? Sep 4, 2026 00:32:40 A yield is only as good as what you compare it to, right now, rates aren't promising enough for investors to want in.Chapters00:00 - Introduction01:46 - Determining the "Right" Level for Interest Rates05:46 - Price-Sensitive vs. Price-Insensitive Treasury Buyers12:00 - Comparing Treasuries to Alternatives16:43 - Term Premium and the Market's Demand for Higher Yields20:57 - The 4-

Episode 006. Can the Treasury Bully the Bond Market? Aug 28, 2026 00:32:48 In a regime where financial conditions never tightened and liquidity never left, the Treasury could open its wallet the same week the Fed decides whether to hike. Is it a fool’s errand?Chapters00:00 - Introduction and Topic Overview02:23 - Defining Financial Conditions vs. Liquidity05:54 - Liquidity and the Fed's Balance Sheet08:26 - The Role of the Treasury General Account (TGA)12:48 - Market Liq

Episode 005. Is Bessent Helping? Aug 21, 2026 00:31:34 The Treasury secretary is hoping to lower yields by increasing buybacks but the effectiveness of such tools has diminished in a high inflation era.Chapters00:00 - Teaser & Introduction01:09 - The Treasury's Rough Week03:13 - Opening the Toolbox: Fed vs. Treasury08:00 - The TBAC and the Optimal Issuance Mix11:39 - The Core Issue: Unchecked Inflation20:43 - Washington's Reluctance to Fix

Episode 004. The State of the Labor Market Aug 14, 2026 00:38:54 Shifting dynamics in the U.S. Labor Market have everyone from the Fed to recent graduates playing on their heels.Chapters00:00 - Introduction & Labor Market Equilibrium03:30 - Demographics, Immigration, and Breakeven Rates13:00 - Data Quality & Measuring Labor Market Speed Limits17:55 - Youth Unemployment, Demographics, and Degree Selection28:37 - AI's Real Impact on White-Collar Jobs

Episode 003. Valuations in An Earnings Explosion Aug 7, 2026 00:39:28 Is the juice worth the squeeze? Earnings keep rising, valuations are questionable, and investors are uncertain. What should you make of earnings these days?Chapters00:00 - Hot Open & Intro00:51 - Why Earnings Confuse03:54 - The Anthropic Effect07:10 - Include Other Income09:36 - OpenAI Next Wave12:32 - Valuations vs Earnings18:05 - Data Sources Diverge22:42 - Quant Models in Trouble26:05 - Ven

Episode 002. This Is Not Your Father's Fed Jul 31, 2026 00:34:09 Two meetings have passed under Warsh and the pattern emerging is more reserved communication, some family infighting, and an uncertain market.Chapters00:00 - The Fed Put & Market Expectation00:51 - Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview01:22 - FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda02:30 - Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact06:18 - The Risks and Moral Hazard o

Episode 001. Why Do Investors Expect So Much? Jul 24, 2026 00:33:17 Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect?Chapters00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio11:38 - E

Rational Dissent Introduction Jul 24, 2026 00:00:31 Hello everyone welcome to the Rational Dissent Podcast where we discuss everything from markets and the economy to the Fed and AI, and we stress test conventional wisdom and consensus views.

Rational Dissent

Episodes

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