Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives
DeepValues 570 episodes Nov 10, 2026
Deep Values is a value-investing podcast that analyzes individual companies and market stories through a Buffett-style lens. Each episode examines intrinsic value, discounted cash flow, margin of safety, moats, and balance-sheet risk. It concludes with a clear Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish stance. The show comes from Deep Value Intelligence, an AI-powered research platform, and is intended as educational content rather than investment advice.
Episodes
Guy Spier Made Zero Trades in Q3 With 49% in Berkshire | Investor Playbook
Guy Spier's Q3 2026 13F shows not a single buy or sell across seven stocks worth $144.3M, with 49% in Berkshire Hathaway. Learn why deliberate inaction is one of the hardest disciplines in value investing when markets reward constant activity.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes iPhone Android• Is the ma
Anthropic (ANT) — Bearish? Anthropic's $1.4T IPO: 1,206% Growth, No Margin of Safety
Bearish on Anthropic (ANT) as of 2026-11-13: $1.4T Fully diluted. Anthropic's S-1 shows $33.2B in nine-month revenue, about 900% net retention and $900.9B in compute commitments, yet the IPO asks $1.4 trillion, roughly 17x run-rate sales. With the roadshow opening this week, we read the filing the way Graham would to test whether any margin of safety is left at $70 to $78 a share.• DeepValues app,
Eisman's $850B AI Bubble: 65% of the S&P 500 Exposed
Steve Eisman shows how an $850 billion AI buildout now ties over 65% of the S&P 500 to two private companies, OpenAI and Anthropic. We test the hyperscalers' moats, free cash flow and debt so you can see what your index fund really owns.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes iPhone Android• Is the mark
Baillie Gifford Made $29.5B on Tesla. Is It Overpaying Now? | Investor Playbook
Baillie Gifford turned one early Tesla bet into a $29.5 billion gain, and today 45% of its $105.9 billion US portfolio sits in just ten names. We run those growth bets through Buffett-style value math to see whether the firm is spotting the future or overpaying for it.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes
Data Centers Lost 40 of 41 Votes. Why Microsoft Rose | Investor Playbook
Voters backed limits on data centers in 40 of 41 local ballot measures, and Texas, home to 25% of planned U.S. capacity, may freeze approvals. Learn why local permission is becoming AI's scarcest input, and how that red tape could quietly widen incumbents' moats.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footn
NVIDIA (NVDA) — Nvidia's CEO and the Intelligence Leak Aimed at a $2T Moat
Deep value research on NVIDIA (NVDA) as of 2026-11-13: $2T Value in the. We trace how a U.S. intelligence leak tying Jensen Huang to an alleged Chinese state-security recruit became a weapon in the fight over Nvidia's China chip exports. For value investors, the question now is how much extra margin of safety this policy risk demands.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic valu
Nvidia vs Microsoft: The Math of the $1.8T AI Meltdown | Stock Market
Damodaran's cash-flow map shows why the AI suppliers generating the most cash lost the most when $1.8 trillion vanished in a single day. Now that the AI trade is splitting into four layers, where a company sits in the food chain decides its risk.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes iPhone Android• Is the
Nvidia, Moutai, Micron: Duan on Why a 3x PE Can Be a Trap | Value Investing
Duan Yongping's November 7 notes on Nvidia, Moutai and Micron reveal one framework: true moats leave a footprint in sustained gross margins, while cheap cyclicals hide a countdown clock. Learn why a stock at 3x earnings can be a trap, not a bargain, while memory-chip profits look their best.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, report
Amazon's $215B AI Bet vs Apple's $9B: Who Earns It Back? | Stock Market
We run the real numbers: Amazon's $215B in CapEx pushed its free cash flow to -$47B, while Apple kept $136B. Then we show why Alphabet's ~$200B build-out needs about $100B in new AI revenue just to earn a 15% return.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes iPhone Android• Is the market overvalued? The Buffet
Pabrai Put 60% in Turkey While Skipping the US AI Trade | Investor Playbook
Mohnish Pabrai has more than 60% of his $1.5B portfolio in Turkey and nothing in the US AI trade. We unpack the Graham-style math behind that split, and why he sees a flat decade ahead for the S&P 500.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes iPhone Android• Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) — Neutral? Berkshire Q3 2026: $22.1B Profit, Only $12.7B Is Real
Neutral on Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) as of 2026-11-07: $9.4B paper gains stripped. Berkshire's $22.1 billion Q3 profit includes $9.4 billion of paper gains, so owner earnings were closer to $12.7 billion. The results came out today, and we look at what $9.6 billion of buybacks and $352 billion in cash and Treasuries say about how management allocates capital.• DeepValues app, a research team
Yacktman at 84: $118.5M Sold, Only 1.5% Turnover | Investor Playbook
Donald Yacktman, 84, sold a net $118.5 million in Q3 but changed only 1.5% of his $8.38 billion portfolio. We look at which of his 75 holdings moved and what his habit of doing almost nothing can teach patient investors today.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes iPhone Android• Is the market overvalued?
Steven Check Dumps $46.8M of Disney for Zoetis | Investor Playbook
Steven Check sold all $46.8 million of his Disney stake at a -80.9% margin of safety and opened a Zoetis position at +14.2%. The Q3 filing just landed, and we walk through the valuation math so you can check it yourself.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes iPhone Android• Is the market overvalued? The Bu
Jack Bogle: From 12% Returns to a 4% Decade | Stock Market
Jack Bogle's two-part return formula, tested over 25 years with a 0.81 correlation, points to about 4% a year for the next decade. After a 12% bull run that hid costly fund underperformance, here is how to read that math without trying to time the market.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes iPhone Androi
S&P 500 Up 11% While Its Average Stock Fell 27%
The S&P 500 is up 11% this year, yet its average member suffered a 27% drawdown, and Nasdaq members nearly 49%. Learn why cap-weighted indexes now hide rolling bear markets, and why valuing each business on its own matters more than ever.• DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes iPhone Android• Is the mar
Microsoft (MSFT) — Microsoft Drops Oracle Cloud: The $80B Rent Problem
Deep value research on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-10: $80B+ outside cloud. Microsoft is winding down its Oracle cloud deal and backing away from over $80 billion in rented AI capacity so it can own its data centers. We unpack what that reveals about AI capex, cash flow, and where a real margin of safety sits in tech.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stockiPhon
Apple and Pop Mart: Why Duan Sold Calls, Not Shares | Investor Playbook
Duan Yongping sold Apple calls without selling a single share, and paused his open-market buying of Pop Mart. See how a value investor acts when a great business gets pricey and the margin of safety shrinks.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stockiPhoneAndroid• Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PEiPhone (Buffett Indicator
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — AMD's $13.4B Quarter: Why Owners Kept Only $31M
Deep value research on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as of 2026-11-05: $31M true owner earnings. AMD booked $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, but after a $3 billion inventory build and stock compensation, true owner earnings came to just $31 million. We walk through the cash bridge so you can see the gap that a $2.09 adjusted EPS leaves out.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for
AppLovin (APP) — Neutral? AppLovin's 66% Margin: Real Profit or Accounting Trick?
Neutral on AppLovin (APP) as of 2026-11-05: 66% net income margin. AppLovin turned $2.18B of quarterly revenue into a 66% net margin, and we strip out stock pay and net-revenue accounting to find true owner earnings. With profit up 72% in Q3 2026, knowing what that margin really measures matters now.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stockiPhoneAndroid• Is the mark
McDonald's (MCD) — McDonald's $3.8B Rent Machine vs. Slipping US Sales
Deep value research on McDonald's (MCD) as of 2026-11-05: $3.8B franchise margins up. McDonald's makes most of its money as a landlord, and franchised margins rose 3% to $3.8 billion in Q3 2026. We test whether that rent engine can hold up while US same-store sales slip 0.2% and management leans on discounts to win back guests.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any sto
OpenAI Sought $30B, Found $11B: Anthropic Pulls Ahead | Stock Market
OpenAI's push to raise $30 billion has only about $11 billion credibly committed so far, while Anthropic beat it on Q2 revenue and turned an operating profit. We run both companies through a Graham-Buffett lens to show why the market now wants cash returns instead of growth stories.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stockiPhoneAndroid• Is the market overvalued? Buf
Lennar: Why a 19%-a-Year Investor Made It His Big Bet
Edgar Wachenheim compounded about 19% a year for nearly three decades, and his Q3 2026 13F lists Lennar first. We unpack the margin-of-safety math behind the position and why a homebuilder fits a rule built to avoid permanent loss.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stockiPhoneAndroid• Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PEi
Chamath's AI Stack: Who Gets Paid From $700B Capex? | Stock Market
Hyperscalers are estimated to pour over $700 billion into AI capex in 2026, yet owning a bottleneck does not guarantee owner earnings. We run Chamath's six-layer AI stack, from ASML to NVIDIA, through a Graham-Buffett lens to see where free cash flow and ROIC actually accrue.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stockiPhoneAndroid• Is the market overvalued? Buffett In
Iron Mountain (IREN) — Neutral? IREN's $9.7B Microsoft Deal: Delay or Thesis Break?
Neutral on Iron Mountain (IREN) as of 2026-11-09: $9.7B Microsoft contract. Microsoft's $4.8B capex shortfall, blamed on delayed third-party capacity, set off a panic in IREN stock. We use finance-lease accounting and aerial evidence from IREN's Texas campus to tell a timing slip apart from a broken thesis.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stockiPhoneAndroid• Is t
AI Wants 1 Gigawatt Per Building. The Grid Can't Deliver | Stock Market
A single AI data center can draw as much power as San Francisco, and the grid can't carry it, so builders are putting power plants on site. We unpack the physics and the trillion-dollar debt cycle behind it, because that is where the hidden risk sits now.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stockiPhoneAndroid• Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett
Alphabet (GOOG) — Neutral? Alphabet's $200B AI Moat vs. Its Free Cash Flow
Neutral on Alphabet (GOOG) as of 2026-11-08: $200B Yearly AI build-out. Gemini 4 Carbon retook AI's #1 spot and Google Cloud revenue grew 103%, but the spending behind both is eating into free cash flow. We use a Graham-Dodd lens to ask whether a lead that must be rebuilt every few weeks still leaves owners a margin of safety.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stoc
Turbopuffer: $100M ARR With 50 People While AI Burns Cash
Turbopuffer reached $100M in ARR with about 50 people by cutting customers' search costs 95% and growing on customer cash instead of mega-rounds. In a 2026 market minting more than one unicorn a day, we use a Graham-Buffett lens to test whether that moat is real.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone · AndroidChapters(0:00) The Sane Asylum(3:04) True Marg
McDonald's (MCD) — McDonald's Priced for 9.5% Growth Forever. Comps Grew 1.5%
Deep value research on McDonald's (MCD) as of 2026-11-04: 9.5% Implied perpetual. McDonald's owns the land under its restaurants, yet U.S. traffic is softening while its price implies 9.5% growth forever. We trace owner earnings to show why that gap leaves little margin of safety.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone · AndroidChapters(0:00) McDonald's Q3
Dan Bin Cuts AMD 64%, Bets $91M on Apple | Investor Playbook
Dan Bin, China's best-known Buffett disciple, cut AMD by 64% and opened a $91M Apple stake in Q3 2026. We test whether his $1.47B, AI-heavy US portfolio still leaves any margin of safety.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone · AndroidChapters(0:00) Value Ledger Overview(3:59) Portfolio X-Ray Analysis(4:38) Top 10 Holdings Ledger(5:39) Transaction Ledger
Tweedy Browne's Q3 13F: Why 45% Sits in Just 10 Stocks | Investor Playbook
Tweedy Browne's new Q3 2026 13F puts 45% of the portfolio in just ten holdings. Learn the five-point Graham checklist behind those picks, used since the firm started in 1920 as Wall Street's buyer of last resort.• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone · AndroidChapters(0:00) Deconstructing Tweedy Browne(0:46) Graham Buffett Checklist(1:06) Deconstructing T
United Airlines (UAL) — United Airlines' $80B Plane Bet With No Passengers in Sight
Deep value research on United Airlines (UAL) as of 2026-11-05: $80B list-price plane order. With revenue near zero in 2020, Scott Kirby placed the largest aircraft order in aviation history. We run that bet through a Graham-Buffett lens to test whether a century-old capital destroyer can finally compound.Chapters(0:00) Confidential Blueprint(1:20) Asymmetric COVID Bet(4:09) 30-Year Horizon(5:14) T
Musk: Saving Is Pointless. 72 Hours Later, Grok Bleeds Cash | Stock Market
Musk called saving pointless, then admitted 72 hours later that serving Grok cost too much. See why $38 billion data centers make cash flow and moats the real test of the AI abundance story.Chapters(0:00) The Abundance Paradox(3:39) Collapsing Cost of Intelligence(5:01) Two Realities of AI(6:01) Grok Bot Unit Economics(7:25) Capex Bottleneck Reality(8:07) Grok Bot Unit Economics(8:48) Capex Bottle
Utilities vs Nvidia: Why $5B of AI Chips Can Sit Unplugged | Stock Market
See why AI's bottleneck moved from chips to power, land and grid access. With 438 GW of requests queued in Texas alone, who owns those scarce assets matters more than who buys the GPUs.Chapters(0:00) Power Is the New Compute(1:01) The Bottleneck Has Moved Upstream(1:43) Collision of Constraints in Texas(2:21) AI Physical-Economy Value Ladder(4:23) The Bottleneck Has Moved Upstream(5:28) Landlords
Don't Live to 93: The Asset 90-Year-Olds Say You Misprice | Value Investing
Why a 97-year-old says he would rot without a task, and what people past 90 regret overpaying for. Time is the one asset you can't buy back, and you are pricing it today.Chapters(0:00) The Ultimate Long-Term Hold(2:58) Investment Verdict on Human Capital(3:57) The Ultimate Long-Term Hold(5:01) Daily Operating Engine(5:41) Attitude as an Economic Moat(6:41) Key Operational Metrics(8:03) Hidden Oppo
Apple (AAPL) — Bearish? Apple's 12.6% Problem: Why Money Is Moving to Google and PDD
Bearish on Apple (AAPL) as of 2026-11-04: 12.6% yearly profit growth. See why a legendary value investor is trimming Apple to fund Google and PDD, and how to test any great business against its price. With Treasuries at 5.2%, a $5 trillion Apple needs 12.6% annual profit growth just to match bonds.Chapters(0:00) Deep Value Research Note(1:55) Apple Valuation Decline(3:58) Apple to Google Shift(5:5
Anthropic's $80B Six-Month Loss vs Google's $500B Wipeout | Stock Market
See how Graham and Buffett would judge Anthropic's $80 billion six-month loss and Google's $500 billion wipeout. With Anthropic's S-1 filing out and AI spending soaring, the margin of safety question can't wait.Chapters(0:00) AI Capital Cycle Analysis(1:40) Financial Reality of 2026(2:23) AI Paradox Bull Bear Case(4:07) AI Capital Cycle Analysis(4:47) AI Paradox Bull Bear Case(5:48) Financial Real
Benner Cycle Says Sell in 2026: Is 1875 Pig-Iron Math Right? | Stock Market
The viral 1875 chart marks 2026 as a sell year, yet its sell dates are just a repeating 9-10-8 year loop. See what its record really shows, and why price versus value matters more than any calendar.Chapters(0:00) Introduction to the Benner Cycle(1:23) The Arithmetic Engine Explained(2:40) Demystifying the Internal Math(5:21) Agricultural Boom-Bust Flywheel(8:25) Evidence of Famous Market Hits(10:0
Intel (INTC) — Bearish? Intel at $95, Base Value $20? SanDisk Has No Safety Margin
Bearish on Intel (INTC) as of 2026-11-20: -372% Intel margin of safety. Intel trades at $95.53, but our base intrinsic value estimate is $20.24. That gap means the market price assumes 36.2% annual owner-earnings growth for five years. SanDisk is the opposite case: it trades close to fair value, but only if today's NAND margins hold up through the cycle. Here is why neither one offers a margin of
Roblox (RBLX) — Neutral? Roblox's $1.35B Free Cash Flow Illusion: 83% Goes to SBC
Neutral on Roblox (RBLX) as of 2026-11-19: 83% FCF lost to SBC. Roblox reported $1.35B of free cash flow in FY2025 and a $1.07B GAAP net loss in the same year. Subtract the $1.13B of stock-based compensation and only $224M is left, so we look at what that means for owner earnings before today's Q3 2026 numbers come out.Chapters(0:00) Roblox Deep Value Research Overview(2:16) The Creator-User Netwo
Amazon (company) (AMZN) — Neutral? Amazon Worth $25 or $200? The $220B Capex Paradox
Neutral on Amazon (company) (AMZN) as of 2026-11-18: -$42.4B TTM free cash flow. Amazon brought in $168.3B of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, yet reported free cash flow was -$42.4B. Here's how one call, whether AI capex counts as maintenance or growth, moves the estimated intrinsic value from $25.68 to about $199.53, and which return metric to track from here.Chapters(0:00) Amazon Q3
Alphabet (GOOGL) — Neutral? Alphabet Made $42B in Cash and Still Burned $9.1B
Neutral on Alphabet (GOOGL) as of 2026-11-17: -$9.1B Q3 free cash flow. Alphabet generated $42.3B of operating cash in Q3 2026, spent $51.4B on AI capex, stopped buybacks and took on $29B of new debt. We compare its owner earnings, balance sheet and cloud growth with Microsoft and Meta to see whether this AI build can earn its cost of capital.Chapters(0:00) The AI Capital Regime Change(1:03) GAAP
Microsoft (MSFT) — Neutral? Microsoft's AI Capex Just Cut Free Cash Flow 70%
Neutral on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-16: -70% FCF collapse. Microsoft spent 49% of its quarterly revenue on AI data centers, and free cash flow fell 70%. We work out its owner earnings, run a Graham-Buffett DCF and show why a Tier A business can still fail the price test.Chapters(0:00) Microsoft Classification and Stance(1:00) The Thesis: Quality vs Price(2:06) Business Model and Monetization
Alphabet (GOOGL) — Neutral? Alphabet's $205B Bet Turns Google Into an AI Utility
Neutral on Alphabet (GOOGL) as of 2026-11-15: $205B FY2026 capex. Google Cloud is growing 81.8% a year, but a $205B capex program pushed Alphabet's Q2 free cash flow below zero, and its $9.11 headline EPS falls to $2.85 once paper gains are stripped out. We look at owner earnings, the depreciation flag and a reverse DCF to see how $320.58 compares with our estimated intrinsic-value range.Chapters(
Anthropic IPO: $1.48T Value vs a $2T Price Tag
We take apart Anthropic's 416-page IPO prospectus with Damodaran's valuation: revenue up 1,400%, but $473B in compute commitments that work like debt, a BB+ rating and a five-class share structure. His optimistic base case puts intrinsic value at about $1.48T, while expected IPO pricing of $1.5T to $2T leaves no margin of safety.Chapters(0:00) Anthropic's IPO: A Deep Value X-Ray(0:46) Great Techno
Fed Pauses at 4%, But Two Governors Wanted More Hikes
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00%, but two governors dissented and voted for another hike, and Chair Warsh says conditions still aren't tight. Here is what that 10-2 split means for discount rates, margin of safety and companies with heavy debt.Chapters(0:00) FOMC Rate Pause Big Picture(2:21) Target Rate and 10-2 Vote(3:45) Strong Economy, Stubborn Inflation(4:25) Key Risks: The Bear Case(5:04) St
Anthropic's $2T IPO Red Flags, and Where AV Value Hides | Stock Market
We read Anthropic's S-1 with a Graham-Dodd lens: a 3,300% headline growth rate, a growth slowdown in Q3, more than $800B in compute commitments and a single share that gives seven founders control. Then we look at where autonomous-vehicle economics look most durable, at least under the episode's assumptions.Chapters(0:00) A Deep Value Lens on AI and AVs(1:05) Generative Euphoria vs Physical AI(2:0
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) — Bearish? Robinhood Made $2.25B in Cash. Why Is It Still Overvalued?
Bearish on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) as of 2026-11-11: -28% Margin of safety. We audit Robinhood's Q3 2026 numbers: $2.25B in free cash flow, a 46% operating margin, zero debt, and the share dilution behind the buybacks. Then we show why a 42.8x P/E and a 17.8% implied growth rate put today's price above our estimated intrinsic-value range.Chapters(0:00) Robinhood Q3 2026 Dossier(0:38) Business Rea
Anthropic S-1: 85% Margins, $600B in Commitments
We run Anthropic's leaked S-1 numbers through a Graham-Dodd lens: 85% inference margins, $100B+ in cash and $500-600B in compute commitments. Then we look at what a trillion-dollar AI valuation leaves for a patient investor's margin of safety before the IPO.Chapters(0:00) Anthropic Deep Value Research(1:59) The Capital-Efficient Compounder(2:37) Selling a Dollar for Ten Cents(3:33) The Capital-Eff
Alibaba's 7x Growth Target Had a Hidden Human Cost | Money & Retirement
A former Alibaba executive was told to multiply her forecast by seven, and her team hit it. Learn what that hyper-growth era cost her health and her family, and why value investors should audit their own human capital as carefully as a balance sheet.Chapters(0:00) The Economics of Hyper-Growth(0:55) Thesis: Growth's Unfunded Liabilities(2:39) The Scaling Engine(5:21) By the Numbers: The Bull Run(6
PayPal (PYPL) — Bullish? PayPal at 9.3x Earnings: Value Trap or Cash Machine?
Bullish on PayPal (PYPL) as of 2026-11-08: $6.58B Free cash flow TTM. We put PayPal's $6.58B in free cash flow, its 31% share retirement and three DCF scenarios side by side to see whether a 9.3x P/E is a value trap or a real margin of safety. Revenue is growing only 2% and Apple Pay is squeezing checkout, so the cash numbers tell you more than the story the market is telling.Chapters(0:00) PayPal
Microsoft (MSFT) — Microsoft Offers 60,000 Buyouts to Fund $190B of AI Capex
Deep value research on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-07: $190B AI capex plan. A leaked memo shows Microsoft offering buyouts to about 60,000 employees, roughly 27% of its workforce, while planning up to $190B in AI data center spending. We use a Graham-Buffett lens to show what swapping payroll for depreciating hardware means for owner earnings, maintenance capex and the moat.Chapters(0:00) The C
Anthropic (ANT) — Bearish? Anthropic at $1.5T? An $80B Loss and a $431B Bet
Bearish on Anthropic (ANT) as of 2026-11-06: $431B Fixed compute. We tear down Anthropic's S-1 to show why its $80.7B loss is mostly a non-cash accounting charge, and why $431B in fixed compute commitments matters far more. Then we stress-test the rumored $1.5T valuation with Graham-Dodd math to see whether any margin of safety is left.Chapters(0:00) Anthropic Pre-IPO Diagnostic(0:40) From AI Lab
$14T in 401(k)s Meets Private Equity's Exit Trap vs ASML | Stock Market
Executive Order 14330 opens the $14 trillion 401(k) pool to private equity just as the average PE deal sits 60% below its 2021 valuation. We compare that mark-to-myth trap with ASML's transparent EUV monopoly, and show why even a wide moat needs a mid-cycle, normalized valuation.Chapters(0:00) The PE Trap and the Ultimate Monopoly(0:43) The Noise vs the Signal(1:47) EO 14330: The Exit Valve(2:07)
Li Lu: 50% of Top AI Researchers Are of Chinese Descent | Investor Playbook
Li Lu argues that the US-China AI race will be decided by where top talent chooses to live and work, more than by compute alone. We use a deep value lens on his thesis, covering a 1951 immigration quota that helped hand China a rare earth monopoly, the 95% of chip fabrication done in East Asia, and why recursive self-improvement in AI could break traditional ways of estimating intrinsic value.Chap
Mark Cuban's AI Debt Warning: What If Rates Hit 10%?
Mark Cuban says AI hyperscalers are borrowing more than they bring in as cash flow to build data centers, while a one-cent earnings miss can wipe 18% off a stock. We run his warning through a Graham-Buffett filter covering cash flow, cost of capital and moats, and look at what patience means when U.S. interest costs run near $1 trillion a year.Chapters(0:00) Macro Thesis: The Illusion of Value(0:3
Mohnish Pabrai's 30-Minute Test to Kill Any Stock Idea | Investor Playbook
Mohnish Pabrai finds a well-researched stock idea, then gives himself 30 minutes to find a reason to drop it, followed by a 200-question checklist where 40 to 50 questions are about debt. Learn how he separates risk from uncertainty, why he wants his money back in 2 to 4 years, and why his biggest mistake was selling a winner too early.Chapters(0:00) Extreme Unreasonableness(0:37) Three Checks to
Buffett's $28B Google Bet: Not Even a Top-5 Favorite
Warren Buffett spent decades avoiding complex tech, so why does Berkshire now hold a $28B Alphabet stake that he says isn't even among his favorite businesses? We look at the $400B cash pile, the 4% Treasury hurdle, Google's ROIC, its $150B net cash and its moat to see the logic, and the risks.Chapters(0:00) The $28B Anomaly(1:42) The Catalyst: A Massive Allocation(3:42) The Old vs New Question(5:
Ken Griffin: AI Bulldozes Moats, GPUs Echo the 2000 Bust | Investor Playbook
Ken Griffin says AI is filling in competitive moats with bulldozers, and he compares the GPU build-out to the dark-fiber telecom bust of 2000. We look at what that means for free cash flow, asset lifespans, discount rates and your margin of safety, using a Graham-Buffett lens.Chapters(0:00) The Macro Ledger: AI and Fiscal Reality(1:47) Bulldozing White-Collar Moats(4:43) ROI Tension: Foundation Mo
Bill Gates on AI: Why a $40B Data Center Kills Moats | Stock Market
Bill Gates says AI will commoditize both cognitive and physical labor over a 20-year transition, and $40 billion data centers are already being built. We look at which moats get weaker, which ones may get stronger, and what that means for estimating intrinsic value.Chapters(0:00) The 20-Year AI Transition(0:40) From Scarcity to Abundance(1:43) The Numbers and Timelines(4:28) The Engine of Disrupti
AI Earnings Up 57%, Cash Payouts at a 20-Year Low | Stock Market
Using Aswath Damodaran's numbers, we check why the market added $2.5 trillion in the same month the 10-year Treasury jumped to 5.29%, and why AI CapEx is pushing reported earnings well ahead of free cash flow. With the equity risk premium down to 3.70% and payouts at their lowest since 2004, the margin of safety is about as thin as it gets.Chapters(0:00) The AI CapEx Illusion(0:38) The 2026 Market
The AI Hardware Value Trap: Why 3x Earnings Can Lie | Stock Market
Memory chipmakers post 80-90% gross margins and trade at two to four times forward earnings, and that cheap multiple may be a textbook cyclical value trap. We follow the money from a $60B gigawatt down to the $20B raw cost underneath and show where margin of safety really sits, and where it doesn't.Chapters(0:00) From Unconstrained Growth to Capital Reality(1:46) How AI Compute Is Financed(3:05) T
AI Bubble's Hidden Liabilities: 75¢ of Every $1 Is Circular
We trace how 75 cents of every AI dollar circles between VC-backed startups and closed-model giants, then add the two liabilities the market ignores: agentic cyber risk and sovereign debt. With French yields above 5% and US deficits worse, the discount rate that anchors every valuation is moving.• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeDeep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the head
15% Debt Yields Are Breaking the AI Data Center Math
Steve Eisman's market wrap, read through a Graham-Buffett lens: why CoreWeave's jump to 15% debt yields, Meta's $825B of commitments and SpaceX's $29.6B quarterly capex mean tech is no longer capital-light. With rates stuck high, the fixed-income math now decides which moats survive, from AI data centers to telecom and housing.• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeDeep Value Intelligence au
10 Stocks Drove 60% of Gains: Is Your Index Fund Safe?
Just 10 stocks drove 60% of 2024's market gains. Passive funds now make up 60% of the market, and the Shiller PE sits at 42. We look at what that means for index-fund diversification, for the AI chip cycle and for three fallen compounders, judged by intrinsic value rather than momentum.• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeDeep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with
Spotify at $583: Great Business, But Priced for Perfection?
We put Spotify's Q3 2026 numbers through a Graham-Dodd and Buffett audit: a record 33% gross margin, $3.46B in trailing free cash flow, no funded debt, and a two-stage DCF range from $345 to $601 per share. With shares near $583, we show what the market already prices in and how far that sits from a 30% margin of safety on conservative assumptions.• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeDeep
Netflix Prints $11B Cash. Why Did the Stock Crash to $65?
Netflix just posted a 34.6% operating margin and $11.3B of trailing free cash flow, yet the stock fell to $65 on a $300M ad-revenue guidance trim. We run the Graham-Dodd scorecard and four DCF scenarios to see where that price sits against an estimated intrinsic-value range.• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeDeep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Do
Kaspi Is Worth $0.75 or $97,596? Why the DCF Breaks
Kaspi trades at 8x earnings, yet a textbook DCF says it is worth either $0.75 or $97,596 a share. See why deposit-funded fintechs break free cash flow models, what Q2 2026 really shows, and which valuation methods actually fit.• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeDeep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash ge
SPCX and TSLA Q3 Earnings: Financials, Valuation, and Risks
📲 Apps for Modern Value InvestorDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeBuffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now? https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android:
Why It Has To Be Elon Musk?
📲 Apps for Modern Value Investor• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608Buffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now? https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android:
Why Not All In Stocks? and Why Your Retirement Needs Zero Bonds？
📲 Apps for Modern Value Investor• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608Buffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now? https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android:
Chamath Palihapitiya: The AI Private Credit Bubble Explained
📲 Apps for Modern Value InvestorDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeBuffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now?Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android🧠 Full research, plus Deep Value Intelligence, our multi-agent AI analyst▶️ Podcasts on investing and life philosophy:
Paul Tudor Jones Predicts 2027 Market Crash
📲 Apps for Modern Intelligent InvestorDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeBuffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now?Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android🧠 Full research, plus Deep Value Intelligence, our multi-agent AI analyst▶️ Longer videos on investing and life
Elon Musk: China Could Crash AI Memory Margins
❤️ To access more advanced researches, follow gurus’ latest movement , and leverage our latest DeepValues Agents, welcome to download DeepValues APP from AppStore.To track stock market temperature, welcome to download iOS App “Buffett Indicator” from Apple App Store, or “Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE” from Google Play. (Links in the description)Disclaimer: All analysis is based on publicly availa
Charlie Munger Psychology of Human Misjudgment
📲 Apps for Modern Intelligent InvestorDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeBuffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now?Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android🧠 Full research, plus Deep Value Intelligence, our multi-agent AI analyst▶️ Longer videos on investing and life
The 16 Trillion Dollar Alphabet Valuation Myth Explained
📲 Apps for Modern Intelligent InvestorDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeBuffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now?Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android🧠 Full research, plus Deep Value Intelligence, our multi-agent AI analyst▶️ Longer videos on investing and life
How Micron's Margin is Even Higher Thank Nvidia?
📲 Apps for Modern Intelligent InvestorDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeBuffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now?Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android🧠 Full research, plus Deep Value Intelligence, our multi-agent AI analyst▶️ Longer videos on investing and life
Li Lu on Value Investing and AI
📲 Apps for Modern Intelligent InvestorDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeBuffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now?Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android🧠 Full research, plus Deep Value Intelligence, our multi-agent AI analyst▶️ Longer videos on investing and life
Value Investing Rules for The AI Bubble
📲 Apps for Modern Intelligent InvestorDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeBuffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now?Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android🧠 Full research, plus Deep Value Intelligence, our multi-agent AI analyst▶️ Longer videos on investing and life
Mohnish Pabrai on Investing Insights and Strategies
📲 Apps for Modern Intelligent InvestorDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeBuffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now?Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android🧠 Full research, plus Deep Value Intelligence, our multi-agent AI analyst▶️ Longer videos on investing and life
Inside Anthropic‘s Leaked S1 Financials
📲 Apps for Modern Intelligent InvestorDeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, freeBuffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now?Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE (Android) — the same market gauge for Android🧠 Full research, plus Deep Value Intelligence, our multi-agent AI analyst▶️ Longer videos on investing and life
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