Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
Episodes
The Signs Were All There | Mike Green on When Passive Flows Meet the Largest IPO in History
Mike Green joins Excess Returns to explain why passive investing, index construction, SpaceX, AI IPOs and mega-cap concentration may be changing how the stock market actually works. We discuss how passive flows can affect prices, why AI earnings may be more circular than investors think, what could break the current market narrative, and why the economy feels much weaker for many households than t
We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins
AI could become the next general purpose technology, reshaping economic growth, inflation, interest rates and portfolio construction. Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis joins Excess Returns to explain why AI, demographics, fiscal deficits and globalization may define the next decade for investors, and why the biggest market winners may eventually come from outside the technology sector.Comi
The SpaceX IPO… What Happens When $1.75 Trillion Meets 4% Float
On the latest Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discuss what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a market structure problem as a valuation problem.They break down the potential impact of a $1.75 trillion IPO, 100 times sales, a small free float, forced index buying, passive fund flows, options trading, bubble dynamics and what advisors should
Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction
Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors shou
He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps
Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail during technological disruption, and how investors can separate potential AI winners from companies whose business models may be permanently impaired.AI Di
The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet
In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index me
Cheap Is a Warning, Not a Thesis | Adam Parker on What This Market Is Really Pricing
Adam Parker returns to Excess Returns to explain why the market may be trading more on future fundamentals than investors think, how AI is reshaping stock selection, and why traditional valuation signals may be less useful than they once were.We discuss AI revenue exposure, software vs. semiconductors, Mag Seven positioning, gross margins, estimate achievability, spinoffs, and Adam’s highest-convi
He Built the Fund He'd Hold 30 Years | Eric Crittenden on What Investors Pick When Labels Come Off
Eric Crittenden joins Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck for a deep dive into trend following and managed futures.They discuss why systematic macro trend investing works, how risk transfer creates a return premium, and how trend can fit inside a diversified all-weather portfolio.Standpoint Fundshttps://www.standpointfunds.com/Topics covered:Why trend following can struggle during fast reversals and thriv
Cliff Asness on Bubbles, Private Equity and His Research Greatest Hits
Cliff Asness returns to Excess Returns for a greatest hits tour through some of his most important and entertaining investing ideas.We discuss bubble logic, today’s AI market comparisons, why volatility still matters as a risk measure, private equity “volatility laundering,” international diversification, market timing myths, pulling the goalie, and how machine learning is changing quantitative in
He Studied Every Bear Market Since 1929 | Ben Carlson on How the Worst Starting Point Still Made 8%
Ben Carlson joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book Risk and Reward and the biggest lessons investors can learn from market history. We cover how to think about risk, inflation, market timing, bear markets, lost decades, diversification, compounding and why surviving volatility is the key to building long-term wealth.Ben's Bookhttps://amzn.to/4dFHsQzBen Carlson on Xhttps://x.com/awealthofcsBe
Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom
AI is moving from hype to real enterprise adoption, and Gene Munster and Doug Clinton join Excess Returns to explain what that means for investors, technology stocks, energy demand, jobs and the next phase of the AI trade. We discuss why AI may still be early in its bubble cycle, how frontier models like GPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok compare, why AI-powered investing is becoming more practical, and
Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On
Jeremy Grantham joins Excess Returns to discuss The Making of a Permabear, mean reversion, market bubbles, AI, the Magnificent 7, and the long-term lessons investors can take from his career at GMO. We cover why he rejects the simple “permabear” label, how he thinks about valuation and bubbles, why AI may be both transformative and dangerous for investors, and why long-term thinking is so hard but
He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is
Marc Rubinstein joins Excess Returns to explain what private credit, bank earnings, insurance balance sheets, fintech growth, and arbitrage firms reveal about the modern financial system. The conversation covers why private credit risks may not be systemic in the traditional banking-crisis sense, but still matter for investors because of redemption gates, hidden leverage, opaque structures, incent
Lessons from Investing Through Bubble Regimes with Andy Constan
First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and
He Wrote the Book on Bubbles | Edward Chancellor on If AI is Different
Edward Chancellor joins Kai Wu on the latest episode of the Intangible Economy to discuss what financial history and capital cycle theory can teach investors about today’s AI boom. They explore why transformative technologies can still produce terrible investor returns, how overinvestment develops, where anti-bubbles may be forming, and what past episodes like the railway mania, the dot-com bubble
We Asked an Options Expert Why This Melt Up Hasn’t Broken — and Which Signal Could End It
Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatilit
We Asked a $4.5B Quant Manager Why the S&P 500 Is Just 46 Stocks — and Why Small Caps Aren't Dead
Elena Khoziaeva, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss factor investing, small caps, value investing, market concentration, intangibles, passive investing, market neutral strategies, and the role of AI in quantitative investment research.We cover how Bridgeway combines disciplined quantitative models with human judgment,
The Last Moat | Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Stock Picking Edge AI Can’t Replicate
This episode of our new showThe 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap investing, business quality, AI disruption, management teams, and the behavioral skills that separate great investors from great analysts.They explore why the edge in investing may increasingly come from judgment, presence, relationships, patience,
We Asked Rich Bernstein and Chris Davis Why This Market Isn’t as Safe as It Feels
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation targe
We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market
This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positi
The Opportunity No One Sees | Richard Bernstein on Finding Value in a Narrow Market
This episode explores one of the most important debates in markets today: whether investors are underestimating the risk of higher inflation and overconcentrating in a narrow group of growth stocks.Richard Bernstein of Janus Henderson Investors joins Excess Returns to explain why today’s environment may look more like the inflationary 1960s than the 1970s, what that means for portfolios, and why m
Feeling Safe Is the Risk | Chris Davis on Finding Durable Companies in a Disrupted World
This episode with Chris Davis of Davis Advisors explores how investors should think about risk, valuation, and opportunity in a market defined by high valuations, technological disruption, and major macro shifts. Davis lays out a framework for navigating uncertainty, explains why durability matters more than ever, and shares hard-earned lessons on selling great companies too early.Davis Advisorsht
Buy High, Sell Higher | Travis Prentice on Dispersion, Passive's Structural Risk and Why 52 Week Highs Don't Mean What You Think
This episode explores how massive structural shifts—AI, deglobalization, and the rise of passive investing—are reshaping markets and what that means for investors. Informed Momentum Company CIO Travis Prentice breaks down why 52 week highs don't mean what you think, the extreme dispersion beneath the surface of the market, why traditional definitions of risk may be flawed, and how investors should
The Secular Plateau | Chris Bloomstran on Why We May Be at Peak Valuations
This episode features Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus discussing market concentration, AI capital spending, Berkshire Hathaway, and the risks facing today’s equity investors. The conversation explores whether we are at a secular valuation plateau, how AI investment may reshape returns, and why passive investors may face more risk than they realize.Semper Augustus Investmentshttps://www.sempera
We Asked David Rosenberg Why He Owns Almost No US Stocks — and What He Holds Instead
This episode features David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, breaking down why today’s market may be driven more by valuation excess and investor behavior than fundamentals. He explains why the biggest risks right now are not obvious in headline data, and why the probability distribution for markets may be far more fragile than investors assume.Rosenberg walks through his framework for th
The Resilience No One Trusts | Brent Donnelly on Why War and Oil Haven’t Broken This Market
Brent Donnelly returns to Excess Returns to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years, where policy shocks, volatility, and positioning matter more than traditional fundamentals. He explains why markets can keep rising despite constant bad news, how traders should think about regime shifts, and what actually drives moves across equities, bonds, FX, and gold today.Brent also
The Bear Market No One Sees | Liz Ann Sonders on the Real Story Indexes Hide
Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab joins Excess Returns to break down how war, an oil shock, and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the investing landscape. She explains why the surface-level strength in markets is misleading, what’s really happening beneath the index, and how investors should think about inflation, the Fed, AI, and the evolving role of retail traders.Follow Liz Ann on Twitterhttps://t
The Forever Invariable Truth | Jim Grant on War, Inflation, and What Comes Next
This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why inflation is ultimately driven by monetary debasement and why war, fiscal policy, and central bank actions may be setting the stage for a more persistent inflationary regime than markets expect.We explore how today’s environment compares to pas
The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on SpotifySubscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple PodcastsThis episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the col
The Risk at the End of the Whip | GMO’s Tom Hancock on Finding Conviction Amid the AI Hype
This episode of Excess Returns features GMO’s Tom Hancock on how to think about AI as an investment opportunity and what truly defines “quality” in today’s market. The conversation breaks down the AI value chain, challenges common assumptions about where value will accrue, and ties it all back to building durable portfolios in a rapidly changing technological landscape.Tom walks through his “Hype
The Walmart Indicator Just Hit 2008 Levels | Jim Paulsen on the Big Difference This Time
This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil, interest rates, consumer behavior, and market sentiment. The discussion explores whether today’s environment signals a slowing economy—or the early stages of a new bull market hidden beneath the surface.Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify
The Inevitability No One Sees | $11 Billion Tech Manager on What Investors Miss About AI
This episode of Excess Returns features Tony Wang of T. Rowe Price discussing how investors can identify “inevitabilities” in technology and position portfolios to benefit from long-term innovation trends. The conversation explores AI, semiconductors, and the evolving investment landscape, while also breaking down Tony’s portfolio construction process and how he navigates cycles, valuation, and di
The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next
This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next.We cover the implications of a new monthly
Michael Mauboussin | AI, Base Rates, and Investing in the New Economy
In this inaugural episode of our new show, The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu, we explore how AI, intangible assets, and unprecedented capital investment are reshaping the future of markets. Michael Mauboussin joins Kai to break down why today’s AI expectations may be historically unmatched—and what that means for investors trying to assess risk, returns, and who ultimately captures value.Subscrib
The Stagflation Regime | Aahan Menon on What Works When Stocks and Bonds Don’t
This episode of Excess Returns features Aahan Menon of Prometheus Research breaking down the growing risk of an inflation shock driven by energy markets and what it means for investors. The discussion explores how a potential shift toward stagflation could challenge traditional stock and bond portfolios and why commodities, trend following, and systematic frameworks may be better suited for the cu
The Inflections Wall Street Misses | Harris Kupperman on Finding Overlooked Opportunities
This episode explores Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman’s framework for “inflection investing” and how he identifies asymmetric opportunities across global markets. The conversation dives into why he believes U.S. equities are structurally challenged, where he sees better opportunities globally, and how macro, politics, and capital flows drive major investing inflections.Inflection investing and identifyin
The Moment Common Knowledge Changed | Last Call - With Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman
This episode of our new market wrap show Last Call breaks down the biggest market drivers right now through three distinct lenses: macro, narrative, and flows. With an oil shock driven by geopolitical conflict, rising volatility, and conflicting economic signals, the discussion focuses on what actually matters beneath the surface and how investors should think about positioning in an environment w
The Private Credit Apocalypse That Isn’t Coming | Larry Swedroe Dispels the Myths
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to break down one of the most debated topics in markets today: private credit. Larry walks through what private credit actually is, why it has grown so rapidly since 2008, and where he believes the biggest misconceptions and risks are for investors.We dig into the structure of the market, how liquidity and credit risk really work be
Nothing Is Priced In | Bob Elliott on Why Investors Are Misreading the Oil Shock
This episode of Excess Returns features Bob Elliott discussing the growing fragility in the global economy as an oil shock collides with a shift from an income-driven to a savings-driven system.The conversation explores why markets may be mispricing the economic impact of higher oil prices, how inflation and growth dynamics could unfold, and what this means for investors navigating an increasingly
The 0.1% Winners | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Why Outliers Drive Returns
Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of SpotifySubscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of AppleIn this episode of our new show, 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer explore how investors should think about base rates, extreme outcomes, and the realities of long-term wealth creation in markets. Applying the work of Michael Mauboussin, the conversation challenges conventional ideas like mea
Big Decline. Options Support Gone | Brent Kochuba on the Fragile Market Setup
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on SpotifySubscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple PodcastsThis episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand explain why markets appear calm despite heavy hedging, and what that disconnect c
The War Markets Can't Price | Jared Dillian on the Regime Change Investors Miss
In this episode, Jared Dillian joins Excess Returns to break down why markets consistently misprice major regime shifts, geopolitical risks, and inflation shocks—and what that means for investors today. The conversation explores how changing correlations, Fed policy constraints, commodities, and portfolio construction are reshaping the investing playbook in 2026.Jared Dillian Twitterhttps://twitte
They Call It a Lottery Ticket. The Data Says Otherwise | D.A. Wallach on The Hidden Alpha of Biotech
Biotech is one of the few areas in investing where specialized knowledge may still generate persistent alpha. In this episode of Excess Returns, D.A. Wallach, venture capitalist and co-founder of Time BioVentures, joins us to explain how biotech investing works, why development-stage drug companies behave like portfolios of options, and why specialist investors play such a large role in this marke
14% for Tech. 1% for Everyone Else | The Weekly Wrap – 3/14/2026
Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on SpotifyFollow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on AppleIn this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and hi
The $1 Trillion Supercycle Hidden in Plain Sight | Joseph Shaposhnik
On this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski speak with Rainwater Equity ETF portfolio manager Joseph Shaposhnik about how long-term investors should think about markets in an era defined by geopolitical shocks, AI disruption, and unprecedented capital investment cycles. The conversation explores how disciplined investors can stay focused on durable businesses and long-te
Survival First. Returns Second | Vitaliy Katsenelson on Investing Amid Extreme Uncertainty
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski speak with Vitaliy Katsenelson, CEO of Investment Management Associates and author of Soul in the Game. The conversation explores how value investing is evolving in a world shaped by artificial intelligence, rapidly changing economic dynamics, and historically high market valuations. Vitaliy discusses why humility and diversifi
What War Charts and AI Bubbles Miss | The Weekly Market Insight – March 8, 2026
Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on SpotifyFollow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on AppleIn this new weekly Excess Returns recap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler highlight the most important investing insights from recent conversations across the Excess Returns podcast network. Drawing on discussions with Andy Constan, Rob Arnott, Kai Wu, Ben Hunt, Rupert Mitchell, Meb Faber and others
1% Growth. Zero Jobs | Jim Paulsen on the Recession Hiding in Plain Sight
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on SpotifySubscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsIn this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down the macro forces shaping today’s markets and economy. Jim explains why the economy may be far weaker than headline GDP numbers suggest, how technology and AI investment are masking weakness in the broader
The Widest Valuation Gap in History | Rob Arnott on What Investors Are Missing About AI
Rob Arnott returns to Excess Returns to discuss the biggest questions facing investors today, including the impact of geopolitical conflict, the valuation gap between U.S. and international markets, the long-term investment implications of artificial intelligence, and why extreme spreads between growth and value may present major opportunities. Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and pioneer of
100% Out of US Stocks | Andy Constan on AI, War Risk and the Shift Abroad
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors for a wide-ranging discussion on geopolitical risk, AI and productivity, capital flows, credit markets, fiscal policy, and the shift from US to international equities. Andy walks through the framework he uses to evaluate uncertainty, from wars and geopolitical shocks to the long-term implications of artificia
Is AI Replacing Workers Faster Than We Think? | We Break Down the Viral AI Doom Loop Article
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down the viral “AI doom loop” article that sparked debate across Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and even the Federal Reserve. They walk through the core thesis that artificial intelligence could trigger a non-cyclical economic disruption, separating signal from noise and exploring what it could mean for software stocks, labor markets, productivity, wea
The AI Panic Trade | What the Viral Doomsday AI Article Means for Markets
Follow Last Call on SpotifyFollow Last Call on Apple PodcastsIn this episode of Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler look past the headlines to unpack what really moved markets this month. From the viral AI end of times scenario that sparked responses from Citadel, Fed Governor Waller, and Jeremy Siegel, to the growing stress in private credit and the rotation out of US mega cap stocks, thi
Most Portfolios Are Built Backwards | Cullen Roche on Building Your Perfect Portfolio
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Cullen Roche to discuss his new book Your Perfect Portfolio and the deeper principles behind building a portfolio that actually fits your life. Rather than starting with asset allocation models or return forecasts, Cullen reframes investing around risk, time horizons, and lifetime consumption. We explore how to think about stocks, bonds, factor i
The Edge Has Shifted | Matt Reustle on How the Best Investors Use AI
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Russell of Business Breakdowns to explore how AI is actually being used in investing today. We go beyond the hype and break down practical use cases for AI in portfolio management, stock research, due diligence, monitoring, and idea generation. From deep research models and agentic AI to prompt engineering and workflow design, this conversat
When You've Won the Game, Stop Playing | What Great Investors Taught Us About Portfolio and Purpose
Subscribe to Two Quants and a Financial Planner on SpotifySubscribe to Two Quants and a Financial Planner on AppleIn this episode, we explore one of the most important but overlooked questions in investing: what is the purpose of your portfolio? Through a series of powerful clips and reflections from Aswath Damodaran, Meb Faber, Ben Hunt, Cullen Roche, Corey Hoffstein, Daniel Crosby, Larry Swedroe
When Safe Becomes the Most Dangerous | The 100-Year Thinkers on AI, Staples and How Words Mislead
Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of SpotifySubscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of AppleIn this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski continue their conversation with Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer, diving deeper into general semantics and what it means for investors navigating AI enthusiasm, market volatility, benchmark obsession, and the gamification of markets.
The Global Regime Change | Jason Hsu on AI, Factor Investing and What Investors Miss About China
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jason Hsu returns for a wide-ranging conversation on China’s economy, the global AI race, emerging markets, factor investing, and what the next phase of globalization could mean for U.S. investors. We explore how China’s fiercely competitive domestic capitalism contrasts with common Western narratives, why AI could reshape professional services the way globalizat
When the Data Stops Working | Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig on What Aggregate Economic Numbers Hide
Subscribe to Click Beta on SpotifySubscribe to Click Beta on Apple PodcastsIn this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler sits down with Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth and Dave Nadig of ETF.com for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro data, positioning, tokenization, AI productivity, and the narratives driving investor behavior. The discussion dives into consensus forecasts, the K-shaped e
This Only Happens in Markets Down 30% | Brent Kochuba on the Rotation Indexes Hide
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on SpotifySubscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple PodcastsIn this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack and Brent break down the growing impact of options markets on stocks, volatility, and sector rotation. While the major indexes appear calm, massive moves beneath the surface tell a very different story. From software stocks and AI disruption to gold, silver, bonds, and the
Investing in a Fourth Turning | Neil Howe and Ben Hunt on Inflation, Trust and What Comes Next
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Neil Howe, author of The Fourth Turning Is Here and co-creator of the Fourth Turning generational framework, along with Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory, to discuss where we are in the current cycle and what it means for markets, inflation, AI, capital flows, and America’s long-term economic outlook. From the debasement trade and rising gold prices to
You Can't Eat Risk-Adjusted Returns | AQR's Pete Hecht on Portable Alpha's Capital Efficient Edge
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Pete Hecht of AQR to break down portable alpha, capital efficient portfolio construction, and how investors can combine equity beta with truly diversifying sources of alpha. We cover how portable alpha works in practice, how it solves the funding problem for alternative strategies, and why implementation details like leverage, liquidity, and fina
46% of the S&P 500 is One AI Bet | Kai Wu on Why It’s Likely the Wrong One
In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital returns to discuss his latest research on AI adoption, ROI, and what it all means for investors.Building on his prior work on the AI CapEx boom, Kai tackles the trillion dollar question at the center of today’s market: Is AI generating real, measurable economic returns across the broader economy, or are we still in an infrastructure-dr
It’s Only a Question of When | Nir Kaissar on AI, Private Credit and the Regime Shift Investors Miss
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Nir Kaissar for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, AI, interest rates, private credit, small caps, and the risks investors may be underestimating. Nir shares his unexpected predictions for 2026, challenges the consensus on Fed rate cuts, explains why high profitability may be putting a floor under valuations, and
$70 Billion. 18 Straight Outperforming Years | David Giroux on the Index Trap and AI Hype
David Giroux, CIO of T. Rowe Price and manager of the Capital Appreciation strategy, joins Excess Returns for a wide ranging discussion on market valuation, AI investing, Mag 6 dynamics, utilities, healthcare, fixed income, and how to think independently in volatile markets. David shares his framework for exploiting structural market inefficiencies, why market drawdowns can create opportunity, how
Lowest Cash Levels Ever | Kevin Muir on Markets at Extremes
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, for a wide-ranging conversation on market sentiment, asset rotation, and the growing signals of stress beneath the surface of global markets. Kevin explains why extreme bullishness can be dangerous, why gold and commodities may be flashing warning signs, and how shifts in currencies, energy, and global cap
The Market That Bites Back | Victoria Greene on Surviving the Badger Market
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Victoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro risk, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about 2026 and beyond. Victoria brings a pragmatic, risk-aware framework to investing, blending top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals, technicals, and a strong focus on cash flow,
Last Call: January 2026 | AI Capex, Private Credit Problems and the Unstable Market
Follow Last Call on SpotifyFollow Last Call on Apple PodcastsJoin Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler for the premiere episode of Last Call, a new monthly market wrap show where we go beyond the headlines to deliver actionable investment insights — and have a little fun along the way.Instead of focusing on index performance or short-term moves, we step back and connect the dots between macro instabilit
The Bubble You Can’t Exit | Dan Rasmussen on the Private Equity Trap
In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined again by Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Advisors for a wide-ranging conversation that challenges some of the most popular narratives in markets today. From private equity and private credit risks to AI-driven capital cycles and overlooked opportunities in biotech and international equities, Dan offers a deeply research-driven perspective on where investors
30 Times Earnings Isn't Expensive | Chris Mayer & Robert Hagstrom on the Labels That Destroy Returns
In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explore how the words investors use quietly shape the decisions they make — often in destructive ways. From labels like “cheap,” “expensive,” and “compounder” to debates about valuation, concentration, and AI, the conversation digs into how language collapses uncertainty into false certainty. Drawing on general
60-20-20 Changed Everything | Tony Greer on the New Portfolio Regime
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From g
You’re Waiting for the Bubble to Burst | Jan van Eck on Why It Already Has
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and gl
The Crash That Won’t Come | Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather on the Great Housing Reset
In this episode of Excess Returns, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather joins Matt Zeigler to unpack what she calls the Great Housing Reset. Rather than a housing crash or correction, Fairweather argues the market is entering a multi year transition toward something more normal, where incomes gradually catch up to home prices and affordability improves at the margin. The conversation covers mo
The Chart of Truth Is Turning | Rupert Mitchell on the Regime Change Investors Are Missing
In this episode of Excess Returns, Rupert Mitchell returns to break down a rapidly shifting global macro landscape and explain how he is positioning across regions, assets, and market regimes. The conversation spans emerging markets, commodities, China, Latin America, US market leadership, and the risks building beneath familiar narratives. Rupert walks through the charts, frameworks, and portfoli
10 Cents on the Dollar | Gary Mishuris on Mispriced Fear and Lessons from Warner Brothers
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Gary Mishuris, Managing Partner and CIO of Silver Ring Value Partners, to explore how deep fundamental analysis, behavioral insight, and disciplined process come together in real-world investing. Gary shares formative lessons from his early career at Fidelity during the post-tech bubble period, including firsthand experiences learning from legend
The Line We Can't Cross | Mike Green on the Passive Investing Endgame
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management for a deep dive into how passive investing has reshaped market structure, altered price discovery, and created new sources of systemic risk beneath the surface of today’s equity markets. Mike explains why index funds are not as passive as most investors believe, how daily flows drive prices in increasingly
Disbelief Is the Real Risk: Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on Why the AI Bubble is Just Getting Started
This episode of Excess Returns features Gene Munster and Doug Clinton breaking down their 2026 technology and market predictions, with a deep focus on artificial intelligence, big tech, and where investors may be misreading the current cycle. The conversation explores how far along the AI bull market really is, what fundamentals still support it, and where the biggest opportunities and risks may e
The Bubble Most Will Get Wrong | Aswath Damodaran on How He is Managing His Own Money in a World of AI
In this episode of Excess Returns, Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation on valuation, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about risk, discipline, and opportunity in a market shaped by AI, market concentration, and rising uncertainty. Damodaran walks through how he builds and manages his own portfolio, why price matters more tha
The Great Moderation Is Over | Liz Ann Sonders on What Replaces It
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders to discuss the evolving market and economic landscape heading into 2026. The conversation focuses on why this cycle feels fundamentally different, how instability rather than uncertainty is shaping investor behavior, and what that means for inflation, the labor market, Federal Reserve policy, and equity markets. Liz Ann breaks down
The Regime Shift No One is Prepared For | Grant Williams on the 100 Year Pivot
This episode of Excess Returns features a wide ranging conversation with Grant Williams on what he calls the hundred year pivot. Grant explains why today’s environment feels fundamentally different from the last several decades, why long held investing assumptions may no longer apply, and how declining trust in institutions, money, and markets is reshaping the global financial system. Drawing on h
Sold At "Irrational Exuberance". Still Lost Money | Sam Ro on the Bubble Paradox
In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most pressing investing debates today: how to think about valuations, profit margins, and artificial intelligence in a market that feels both expensive and transformative. Sam Ro joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation that explores whether traditional valuation tools still matter, how AI is reshaping corporate e
