Hold Your Fire!
Join Crisis Group's Executive Vice President Richard Atwood as he dives deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe with Crisis Group analysts and special guests. These experts bring a unique, on-the-ground perspective to understanding both why those conflicts persist — and what could bring them to an end.
Episodes
How Close Are Ethiopia and Eritrea to All-out War?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and the risk of an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine federal forces’ recapture of Tigray’s capital Mekelle and what has changed since the previous war. They explore Eritrea’s calculations in backing its former ene
Back to War in Ethiopia?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga about renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia. They examine why the Pretoria agreement, which ended the devastating 2020–2022 war between Tigrayan rebels and the federal government, failed to deliver lasting peace. They assess the fragile new alliance of Tigrayan, Amhara and other rebel groups, Eritrea’s
The UN’s High Level Week, Secretary-General Selection and “Middle Power” Problem
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s Director for Global Issues and Institutions, and Daniel Forti, Head of UN affairs, ahead of next week’s UN General Assembly high-level week. They explore the mood at the UN, its shifting relations with Washington and its shrinking role in peacemaking worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. They assess
Special Episode: Will the Houthis Shut Down the Bab al-Mandab Strait?
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to unpack the rapid Houthi advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast near the Bab al-Mandab Strait and its implications for regional security and global shipping. They discuss how the 2022 truce between the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s internationally recognised government unravelled, the
Nuclear Deterrence in Europe (and another round of U.S. Ukraine-Russia diplomacy)
In this first episode of a new season of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s European Security Director Olga Oliker about the role of nuclear weapons in Europe. They examine how Russia’s nuclear threats have constrained but failed to halt Western support for Ukraine, why Trump’s questioning of NATO commitments has weakened European confidence in U.S. nuclear protection, and why Rus
U.S.-Iran Diplomacy and Middle East Politics
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Middle East director Rob Malley about the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations and how the aftermath of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could change the region. They discuss why talks remain fraught, how control over the Strait of Hormuz has become central to Iran’s demands, how negotiators might tackle Iran’s nuclear program and how
Will “El Tigre” Colombia’s New President Launch Another War on Drugs?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Elizabeth Dickinson about Colombia’s presidential election, in which right-wing outsider Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella won by a razor-thin margin. They unpack a bitter campaign and what the result reveals about a country still deeply divided. They assess outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s legacy an
What’s Happening in Afghanistan
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ibraheem Bahiss, Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert based in Kabul, to assess where the country stands nearly five years after the Taliban’s return to power. They discuss the improved security across much of Afghanistan, even as many remain uncertain about the durability of Taliban rule. They examine the Taliban’s sweeping restrictions on wom
Special Episode: U.S. and Iran Find an Off-ramp?
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran director, to unpack the memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran on Sunday to shore up a fragile ceasefire and open the way for further talks. They discuss what is known about the agreement and its provisions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending hostilities, including in Leba
100 Days Later: Can Trump Find an Off Ramp in the Gulf?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Naysan Rafati, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Hanna about the shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the state of negotiations between the two countries. Richard first speaks with Naysan about continued U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat exchanges, talks over a possible deal, what an initial agreement might entail and whether the
India’s Kashmir and Manipur Conflicts and their Consequences
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi about escalating ethnic violence in Manipur and militancy in India-administered Kashmir. They first discuss Manipur, where fighting between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities has recently drawn in Naga groups, tracing the roots of the conflict, links to older insurgencies and why New Delhi’s neglect
The Trump-Xi Summit: What Happened in Beijing?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Wyne, Crisis Group’s Senior Research and Advocacy Adviser for U.S.-China and Senior Northeast Asia Analyst William Yang, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. They assess the summit’s broader significance, including what it reveals about Trump’s second-term China policy and the shif
A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire and An Evolving Battlefield?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s European Security director, to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine, more than four years into full-scale war with Russia. They talk about the mood in Kyiv, recent battlefield dynamics and how Ukraine’s military continues to adapt as the war grinds on. They discuss the fallout from the war in the Gulf, inclu
Jihadist and Separatist Rebels Gain Ground in Mali
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s deputy Sahel director Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim to discuss a major wave of coordinated attacks by the al-Qaeda affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Tuareg rebels across Mali. They examine how the offensive unfolded, including the killing of Mali’s defence minister and the fall of the strategic northern city
Lebanon’s Uneasy Truce
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Iraq, Lebanon and Syria director Heiko Wimmen about the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and what might come next. They discuss the damage caused by the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, with thousands dead and over a million people displaced, mostly from Shia-majority areas in the south, and the situation in Leban
What Hope for the U.S.-Iran Talks in Islamabad?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna and Stephen Pomper to discuss the announced ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the U.S. and what might follow. Richard first asks Ali why Iran agreed to a ceasefire, decision-making in Tehran and Iran’s approach to the Islamabad talks. He then speaks with Yasmine a
After Three Years of War in Sudan, What Hope for a Ceasefire?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss where Sudan’s war stands as it approaches its fourth year. They examine shifts along the front lines as Sudan’s de facto partition under the two main warring parties, the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, is becoming increasingly ent
From Bad to Disastrous: Will Trump Escalate in Iran?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Stephen Pomper and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about where the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stands, one month in. Richard first speaks with Ali about reported backchannel talks between Washington and Tehran, the two sides’ largely incompatible demands for ending the war, changes i
Is Cuba Next?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s Latin America director, Renata Segura and senior policy director, Ivan Briscoe, about what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Cuba and recent developments in Venezuela. They discuss Washington’s pressure campaign on Cuba, the effects of the U.S. oil blockade, popular frustration on the island and the inner
Escalation or off-Ramp in the Gulf? And What Hope for a Ceasefire in Lebanon?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Lebanon expert David Wood and former Crisis Group President Rob Malley. Richard first talks with David about the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, why Hezbollah decided to launch attacks after the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began, Israel’s war aims in Lebanon and prospects for a ceasefire. Richard then turns to Rob
Operation Epic Folly? Trump’s and Netanyahu’s War on Iran
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about how the U.S.-Israel war with Iran is unfolding and what might be next. Richard first speaks with Ali about what is happening inside Iran amid internet blackouts and heavy bombardment, debates around Iran’s leadership and Ali Khamenei’s succes
Special Episode: Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmin Farouk to discuss the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, the regional fallout, and what could come next. Richard first speaks with Ali about the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and what it means for Tehran’s leadership and decision-
Will Ethiopia and Eritrea Start a Regional War?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Africa director Murithi Mutiga about rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the growing risk of another war in the Horn of Africa. They discuss how political divisions in Tigray and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access are sharpening fault lines between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They examine how Gulf and Middle Eastern rivalries could
A Transport Route to Peace in the South Caucasus?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, about progress in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, U.S. involvement and shifting regional politics. They discuss U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent visit to Yerevan and Baku, why Washington got involved and U.S. efforts to broker agreement on the Trump Route for Internati
Phase Two in Gaza?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Amjad Iraqi, Mairav Zonszein and Max Rodenbeck about President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace and its implications for Gaza. They unpack the structure of the board’s different layers, how Palestinians are reacting to the new Palestinian technocratic Gaza committee and what that committee will do. They look at conditions on
Norway’s FM Espen Barth Eide on Greenland, Iran, Trump’s Board of Peace and other crises
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Norway’s Foreign Minister, Espen Barth Eide. They discuss the latest U.S.-Europe tensions over Greenland, Arctic security and Europe’s approach to Washington. They then turn to prospects for a peace deal in Ukraine and what security guarantees might look like. They examine President Trump’s newly announced “Board of Peace” and its implicatio
The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Richard Gowan, Olga Oliker and Steve Pomper about U.S. President Donald Trump’s new Board of Peace and whether the transatlantic crisis over Greenland is over.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts, Richard Gowan, Olga Oliker and Steve Pomper and Richard Gowan to discuss the transatlantic s
What Next for Iran?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran Director Ali Vaez to discuss the wave of nationwide protests in Iran and what the unrest could mean for the Islamic Republic’s future. They look at what’s behind the protests, what is known about the situation on the ground amid an information blackout and the regime’s brutal crackdown, with a death toll that autho
From Venezuela to Greenland? Trump’s Gunboat Diplomacy
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Stephen Pomper about the fallout from the U.S. operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Washington’s push for oil concessions, and the future U.S. Western hemisphere policy.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Renata Segura, Crisis Group’s Latin America & Caribbean directo
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela?
This week, in a special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Caracas-based senior Andes region analyst Phil Gunson to unpack the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and to assess what may come next. They examine how the operation unfolded, how it was experienced inside Venezuela, and the government’s initial response.
Trump Brokers Rwanda-DR Congo Deal, Rwandan-backed Rebels Advance
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Moncrieff about the Rwanda-backed M23’s advance into Uvira in eastern DR Congo and where the war and the diplomacy to end it might be headed. They discuss what’s driving the group’s latest offensive, what governance looks like in M23-held areas, its reliance on Rwanda, and its ambitions through its political arm, the Congo Rive
Fighting on the Cambodia-Thailand Border
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Matthew Wheeler, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Southeast Asia, about the renewed clashes along the Thailand-Cambodia border. They explore the origins of the long-running dispute and the triggers for the latest round of fighting, which has shattered a ceasefire reached in Malaysia in late July and displaced more than half a million people.
UN stamps Trump plan, Gaza in Limbo, Saudi Crown Prince in Washington
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At Home and Away: President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Year in Power in Syria
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Dareen Khalifa, Crisis Group’s senior adviser for dialogue promotion, to discuss Syria’s transition after the fall of the Assad regime and the political evolution of President Ahmed al-Sharaa. They talk about al-Sharaa’s recent trip to the White House and Washington’s evolving Syria policy and sanctions relief. They examine how life has chan
Election Standoff Grips Cameroon and Jihadists Squeeze Mali’s Capital
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Cameroon expert Arrey E. Ntui and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jézéquel. Richard first talks with Arrey about the fallout from Cameroon’s disputed elections, growing public anger toward President Paul Biya – the world’s oldest serving head of state – and opposition protests. They also assess how the political crisis might affect
Drug War or Regime Change? Trump’s Venezuela and Western Hemisphere Policy
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Phil Gunson and Renata Segura about U.S. military build-up off Venezuela’s coast, strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats and whether Washington could depose Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Venezuela and Andes expert Phil Gunson and Latin America & Ca
Special Episode: What Does the RSF’s Seizure of El Fasher Mean for Sudan’s War?
In this update episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn director Alan Boswell about the paramilitary RSF capturing North Dafur’s capital El Fasher, the reports of horrific violence in the city and the implications for the trajectory of Sudan’s war. They discuss how the RSF managed to take control of the city after a siege of more than
What’s Next for the Houthis in Yemen?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Yemen expert Ahmed Nagi about what the ceasefire in Gaza means for the Israel-Houthi conflict, risks of further attacks in the Red Sea and the future of the intra-Yemeni peace process. In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Yemen expert, Ahmed Nagi, to discuss where the Israel-Houthi conflict may b
Another South Asia Cross-Border Crisis: Afghan and Pakistani Forces Clash
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert Ibraheem Bahiss and South Asia director Samina Ahmed about clashes this week between Afghan and Pakistani forces. Richard first speaks with Ibraheem about what triggered the latest confrontation, including reported Pakistani strikes on Pakistani militants, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in Kabul and in
Can a U.S.-Arab Roadmap Stop Sudan’s War?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael, Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and Gulf & Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk about the latest shifts in Sudan’s war and recent diplomatic efforts. They chart recent battlefield developments, including the situation in El Fasher in northern Darfur, where fighting between the Suda
Special Episode: Rob Malley on Gaza, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the wider Middle East
In this Special Episode of Hold Your Fire!, two years of war in Gaza after Hamas’s 7 October attacks, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s former president and former U.S. Special Envoy to Iran and official in several previous U.S. administrations, Rob Malley. They discuss Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, Hamas’ reaction to the proposal and where things might be headed next. They discuss Rob’s new book
What to Make of Trump’s Gaza Plan?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Michael Hanna, Max Rodenbeck, Amjad Iraqi and Mairav Zonszein about Donald Trump’s proposed Gaza peace plan, who might benefit from it, the many uncertainties it raises, and what it could mean for Gaza’s future.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Michael Hanna, Max Rodenbeck, Amjad Iraqi
What to Make of Trump’s Ukraine Diplomacy?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Lucian Kim, Olga Oliker, and Stephen Pomper about battlefield developments in Ukraine, the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts to end the war, and what might lie ahead.In this episode of Hold Your Fire, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Ukraine expert Lucian Kim, Europe director Olga Oliker and chief of policy Stephen P
The UN’s Uncertain Future
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Gowan about what to expect from this year’s UN General Assembly High-Level Week. They discuss the mood at the UN as the second Trump administration both finds its feet at the world body and makes drastic funding cuts, forcing the UN to scale back humanitarian operations and lay off thousands of staff in New York and agencies. T
The DR Congo-Rwanda Deal, Trump’s Mediation and African Politics
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa program director, to discuss the DR Congo-Rwanda deal, U.S. peacemaking in Africa and elsewhere, and how revisionist leadership could impact the continent. They unpack the U.S. and Qatar-brokered peace deal, its minerals component and the pitfalls in the Trump administration’s mediation style, also looki
A Twelve-Day War, A New Middle East?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna about the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what it means for the region.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined once more by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and
Special Episode: “Totally Obliterated”? Trump’s Iran Strikes and What Iran Might Do Now
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk to discuss the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. They assess what is known about the damage at the nuclear sites and how far the attacks might have set back Iran’s nuclear program. They unpack why diplomatic efforts
Will he? Won’t he? The Trump Iran Show
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck, Yasmine Farouk and Michael Hanna to discuss the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Richard first talks with Ali about how Iranians are experiencing the conflict, the damage Israeli strikes have inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile program and military leadership, an
Military Rulers and Jihadist Rebels in the Sahel
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s president, Comfort Ero, and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jezequel. He first speaks with Comfort about her recent visit to Mali’s capital, Bamako, and her reflections on the diverging political trajectories of Sahelian countries. Richard then turns to Jean-Hervé for a closer look at Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, which formed the
Special Episode: Israel Strikes Iran
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran project director, about Israel’s strikes on Iran, which badly damaged nuclear and military sites and killed senior military officials. They discuss the scale of the attacks and their aims, focusing on whether they were primarily about setting back Iran’s nuclear program or weakening its regime. They also t
Bomb the Cartels? Expel the Migrants? Reboot Monroe? Trump and Latin America
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Ivan Briscoe about the Trump administration’s Latin America policy, responses from the region and the future of Washington’s influence.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Latin America Program Director Renata Segura and Senior Policy Director Ivan Briscoe to look at how the
Bonus Episode: The New Scramble for Peace (and Minerals) in DR Congo
Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on DR Congo from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.In this episode, Alan Boswell is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advan
Netanyahu Against the World? Anger Mounts over Gaza’s Starvation
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Max Rodenbeck and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s new ground offensive in Gaza and its contentious efforts to take over control of aid distribution amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. Richard first speaks to Mairav, Amjad and Max about “Operation Gideon’s Chariots”, Israel’s military cam
Until Next Time? The India-Pakistan Truce
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Samina Ahmed, and Pierre Prakash about the India-Pakistan ceasefire after days of clashes sparked by militant attacks in Kashmir and how to prevent the next crisis from spiralling out of control.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi, South Asia Projec
Trump in the Gulf
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Ali Vaez and Michael Wahid Hanna about U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming trip to the Gulf and how much the Iran nuclear talks, the Gaza war and other regional crises will feature on the agenda.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program Direct
What Hope Do the Ceasefire Proposal and Minerals Deal Offer Ukraine?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine. They unpack what is known about the U.S. proposal and its potential implications, including the prospects of U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula and Kyiv agreeing
Will Myanmar’s Devastating Earthquake Impact its Civil War?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey about the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar last week, challenges facing relief efforts and implications for the country’s civil war and its military leaders.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to discuss the aftermath of the eart
South Sudan on the Brink of Another War
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Daniel Akech and Alan Boswell about escalating violence across South Sudan, President Salva Kiir’s dismissal of both loyalists and opposition leaders, the impact of neighbouring Sudan’s conflict and hope of averting a return to civil war in the world’s youngest country.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Cr
Israel Goes Back to War in Gaza
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Max Rodenbeck, Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi and Michael Wahid Hanna to discuss the breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire, the likely effect on Palestinians in Gaza and the goals of both Israel’s renewed military campaign and the U.S. strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. Richard first talks to Max, Mairav and Amjad about Israel’s r
Trump, France and European Security
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his administration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and how European capitals are reacting. They talk about diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukra
What Does the PKK Ceasefire Mean for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Berkay Mandıracı, Lahib Higel and Dareen Khalifa to discuss the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)’s announcement of a ceasefire with Türkiye following imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call for the group to disarm and dissolve. They discuss the motivations behind the Turkish initiative to end the 40-year confli
A Decisive Turn in Sudan’s War?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why
U.S. and Russia Start Ukraine Talks, Transatlantic Ties Unravel
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe/Central Asia director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about talks between U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic relations. They unpack Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks at NATO, apparently ruling out Ukraine’s return to its pre-2014 borders or
How Will Trump Deal with Iran?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President, to talk about U.S. President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. They discuss Trump’s return to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran even as he signals willingness for dealmaking with Tehran. They examine how Iran’s leadership views the Trump administration and whether
Trump’s Gaza Plan
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Michael Hanna and Rob Blecher to talk about Donald Trump’s shock proposal for Gaza and its implications for the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Richard first speaks with Mairav, Amjad and Rob about Trump’s plan, which would include relocating Palestinians out of Gaza and p
Can Diplomacy Stop Rwandan-backed Rebels in the Eastern DRC?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Great Lakes Director Richard Moncrieff to discuss the fall of Goma, the capital of DR Congo’s North Kivu province, to the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group and its implications for Kinshasa and the broader region. They unpack the rapid collapse of Congolese forces in Goma, the role of Rwandan troops in the offensive, and h
What's Next for Syria?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Dareen Khalifa and Nanar Hawach to discuss what’s ahead for Syria after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They unpack the offensive led by Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebels, the rapid disintegration of regime forces and Syrians’ hopes after more than a decade of war. They look at the challenges Syria’s
Trump in Africa
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to discuss the implications of a second Trump administration for Africa. They examine how African leaders have reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory and why some might favour a more transactional Washington. They assess the Biden administration’s legacy in Africa, the shifts a second Trump a
North Korean Forces in Russia and North East Asia Security
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Kyung-wha Kang, former South Korean Foreign Minister, CEO of Asia Society and Crisis Group trustee, to discuss North Korea and Russia’s strategic partnership, potential change Donald Trump might bring to U.S.-South Korea relations and what they mean for the Korean peninsula. They talk about North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia’s Kurs
Trump and the World
In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Michael Wahid Hanna, Renata Segura, Ali Wyne and Amanda Hsiao to talk about Donald Trump's return to the White House and what it means for the world, whether the wars in Europe and the Middle East or crises and flashpoints elsewhere. He first talks with Olga about Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine war. Does t
Strongmen and Geopolitical Jostling in Central Africa
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Central Africa project director, Enrica Picco, to talk about Chad, the Central African Republic and Cameroon. They discuss Chadian President Mahamat Déby’s consolidation of power since the death of his fatherIdriss in 2021, his approach to dealing with the fallout from Sudan’s war and his outreach to new security partners alon
The “Generals’ Plan”, Sinwar’s Death and a Year in Gaza
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s intensified military operations in northern Gaza, the implications of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death and what is left of Gaza a year into the war Israel launched in response to Hamas’ 7 October attacks. They talk about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, particularly in
Can Either Trump or NATO Membership Help End the Ukraine War?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker and senior Ukraine analyst Lucian Kim to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine war. They talk about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the U.S., what we know about his proposed “victory plan” and his efforts to ensure support from both sides of the aisle in W
“Restoring Deterrence”: Dangerous Words in the Middle East
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard speaks to Crisis Group colleagues Christina Boutros, David Wood, Ali Vaez and Mairav Zonszein about Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, how Israel might respond and whether the Biden administration can avert an all-out confrontation that would draw the U.S. in. Richard first discusses with David and Christina Israel
Will Israel’s Bombing Start an All-out War or Force Hizbollah Back from the Border?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna about the intensified Israeli strikes on Hizbollah militants in Lebanon and whether both sides can still step back from the brink of all-out war. They unpack calculations on both sides, why Israel has ramped up attacks recently and why Hizbollah hasn’t yet responded more for
The United Nations in a Divided World
In the first episode of Hold Your Fire’s new season, Richard Atwood is joined by Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s UN director, to speak about the UN General Assembly high-level week and the UN’s global role. They look at how the UN has responded to the Gaza war and conflict’s impact on politics and debates at the UN. They talk about the UN’s efforts in other conflicts, including Ukraine, Sudan and Ha
What Hope for a Gaza Ceasefire and What Happens Without One?
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Israel expert Mairav Zonszein, Israel-Palestine director Rami Dajani and U.S. program director Michael Hanna to talk about the latest from Gaza, prospects for a ceasefire and the risks of all-out war between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. They discuss how the violence in Gaza has evolved and the recent Israeli s
Pakistan’s Political Standoff and Surging Militant Violence
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s South Asia project director Samina Ahmed to talk about the fallout from the February elections in Pakistan, the deteriorating security in Pakistan’s border regions and Islamabad's relations with Pakistan’s neighbours. They unpack what’s behind the enduring popularity of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, the Pakis
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb on NATO, Europe’s Security and its Relations with the Rest of the World
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Finnish President and former Crisis Group trustee Alexander Stubb to talk about next week’s NATO summit, European security and the war in Ukraine. They assess Finland’s role as one of NATO’s newest members, Europe’s defence spending and preparedness and the future of the alliance as Washington’s attention shifts to the Asia Pacific. They tal
Houthi Strikes, Red Sea Shipping and Yemen’s War
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to talk about the uptick in attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo ships in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean and the prospects for an escalation of the conflict both in Yemen and the broader region. They unpack what the Houthis are trying to achieve with the attacks, which the group has
