UBS On-Air: House View
House View brings you daily, weekly, and monthly content covering our multi-asset views on economic trends and financial markets from the UBS Chief Investment Office.
Episodes
House View Daily | Semis stumble. Time to reboot expectations?
A sharp sell-off in semiconductor stocks has reignited questions about the durability of the AI trade. But with earnings expectations still strong, cloud growth accelerating, and valuations becoming more attractive, we take this as more of a reset of expectations than a break in the AI thesis.
House View Daily | Strong 3Q earnings can send US equities higher
Higher energy prices and geopolitical risks may fuel near-term volatility, but AI demand, a healthy cyclical economy, and resilient consumer spending should support another strong quarter for S&P 500 profits.
House View Daily | Commodity fundamentals speak for further upside
Geopolitical and macro uncertainties are driving near-term commodity volatility, but tight supply and durable demand remain supportive of the outlook. We see broad commodity exposure as a source of returns, diversification, and portfolio resilience.
House View Daily | AI demand remains robust despite market jitters
Recent adoption, semiconductor revenue, and cloud-growth data continue to point to healthy AI demand. While volatility may persist as the trade matures, investors should maintain diversified exposure while becoming more selective.
House View Daily | Stay invested near record highs
US stocks eased from record highs as elevated Treasury yields, rising oil prices, and renewed geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment. But waiting for these concerns to fade could mean missing further market gains. We believe investors should remain positioned for long-term growth through a well-diversified portfolio.
House View Daily | US equities can gain further after record highs
The S&P 500 reached a record high despite ongoing market risks. We think AI investment, broadening earnings growth, and a resilient US economy should support further gains. Investors should maintain diversified equity exposure across sectors and regions.
House View Daily | Broaden equity exposure as market leadership narrows
The Nasdaq reached a record high despite elevated Treasury yields, but the rally remains concentrated in a narrow group of large technology companies. Investors should maintain diversified core equity exposure as they position for further upside.
House View Daily | Building resilience to navigate market risks
Lower oil prices and softer US jobs data have reduced immediate concerns about further Federal Reserve tightening, but geopolitical risks and elevated bond yields could keep markets volatile. We recommend positioning for further equity gains while diversifying and managing concentration risk.
House View Daily | Treasuries face a challenging reset
The sell-off in US Treasuries reflects growing concern that inflation and policy rates could remain elevated. While further disinflation, easing energy pressures, or policy intervention may slow the rise in yields, volatility is likely to remain high in the near term. Investors should calibrate duration and credit risk carefully.
House View Daily | Resilient growth should underpin equity gains
Long-dated Treasury yields have risen to multi-decade highs. But resilient growth, robust earnings, and accelerating AI adoption should help equities absorb the valuation pressure from higher yields. We continue to recommend positioning for further equity gains through broad sector and regional diversification.
House View Daily | Why higher rates can favor hedge funds
Higher interest rates can be a headwind for many investments, but they can also create a more favorable environment for hedge funds. A higher cost of capital increases differences among companies, economies, and securities, giving active managers more opportunities to identify relative leaders and laggards.
House View Daily | AI infrastructure: Strong demand does not remove execution risks
Potential delays at a major US data center have intensified scrutiny of AI infrastructure financing. We don’t see this as a risk to compute demand itself, but if it widens, it could affect deployment timelines, funding costs, and investment returns. We continue to favor diversified thematic exposure to both the AI and Power and resources opportunities across public and private markets, with an emp
House View Daily | Higher yields need not derail markets
Strong US activity, higher oil prices, and a weak Treasury auction pushed the 10-year yield above 5.1% and weighed on equities. But we expect less Fed tightening than markets currently price, while resilient growth and robust earnings should help risk assets absorb measured rate increases.
House View Daily | Build resilience through portfolio diversification
Oil prices fell on signs of progress in US-Iran talks, but geopolitical and market risks remain. We expect equities to rise further, although periods of volatility are likely. Investors can strengthen portfolios with capital preservation strategies, broad commodities, and alternatives.
House View Daily | Consumer agents may power the next phase of the AI trade
The rapid early adoption of Meta’s Muse highlights the potential for consumer AI agents to expand monetization channels. We see rising adoption supporting hyperscalers’ returns on AI investment and strengthening demand across the semiconductor and hardware value chain.
House View | Jumpstart
Welcome to CIO Jumpstart, your guide to the main market events coming up in the week ahead. Today we ask the following three questions: 1. Can equities withstand higher yields after the Fed’s hawkish increase? 2. How far will Europe’s policy shift extend after the Fed rate hike? 3. Will progress in the Middle East ease pressure on oil prices?
House View Daily | The case for investing amid rising rates
While elevated oil prices and renewed monetary tightening are testing investor confidence, cash alone is unlikely to deliver the long-term returns needed to offset inflation, taxes, withdrawals, and longevity. Investors should maintain near-term liquidity while putting excess cash to work in diversified portfolios.
House View Daily | How to position in fixed income as Fed hikes rates
The Fed’s hawkish rate hike has led markets to price in more tightening. We believe this repricing creates opportunities in fixed income, but investors should remain selective on duration and credit risk.
House View Daily | What matters from today’s Fed decision?
Wednesday may see the Fed kick off a new tightening cycle in the US. For portfolios, the key questions concern earnings resilience, market pricing, and diversification.
House View Daily | Frontier 'pacing' calls may not spell an end to AI capex cycle
Stronger safeguards need not derail the AI rally. We still favor diversified exposure across the AI value chain.
House View | Jumpstart
Welcome to CIO Jumpstart, your guide to the main market events coming up in the week ahead. Today we ask the following three questions: 1. Will the Fed signal more hikes to come? 2. Will other central banks follow the ECB’s hawkish lead? 3. Can robust AI demand reinforce broader economic resilience?
House View Daily | Equities should withstand higher yields
Rising oil prices and Treasury yields are testing investor confidence, but equities have remained resilient. We believe solid economic growth, robust earnings, and strong AI investment should help stocks withstand higher rates. We remain constructive on equities and recommend broad exposure across sectors and geographies.
House View Daily | Brent tops 100: A milestone, not a turning point
Brent crude rose above USD 100/bbl on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions and tightening physical supplies support prices. But we believe strong earnings growth, sustained AI investment, and diversified portfolio exposure can help global markets withstand higher energy costs.
House View Daily | Look beyond rates to gold’s long-term support
Gold may face near-term pressure from higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar, but we believe its long-term investment case remains intact. Robust central bank buying, fiscal concerns, and demand for protection against inflation and geopolitical risks reinforce its role as a portfolio diversifier.
House View | Jumpstart
Welcome to CIO Jumpstart, your guide to the main market events coming up in the week ahead. Today we ask the following three questions: 1. Will inflation temper the Fed’s hawkish turn? 2. Will the ECB signal that its hiking cycle will be limited? 3. Can market gains continue to broaden beyond technology?
House View Daily | What a more hawkish Fed means for investors
Economic growth has stayed resilient, earnings are strong, and AI-related investment continues to support activity. Against that backdrop, the possibility of rate hikes has increased, supported by comments from Fed officials that inflation may not be moving down fast enough. But investors should not mistake a potential change in Fed policy for a change in the investment outlook. If rates move high
House View Daily | Look beyond tech as AI strength persists
Broadcom’s stronger AI-chip outlook has reinforced confidence that demand for AI infrastructure remains robust. But elevated government bond yields, geopolitical risks, and the potential for excessive reliance on a narrow group of technology stocks reinforce the importance of diversification. Against this backdrop, we advise investors to position for further market gains by broadening equity expos
House View Daily | Higher yields put currency fundamentals to the test
Rising oil prices and shifting central bank expectations have pushed global yields higher, but currency markets are responding selectively. We favor carry opportunities backed by sounder fundamentals, and believe investors should focus on building robust, diversified, and risk-managed portfolios.
House View Daily | Bond opportunities remain despite volatility
Renewed conflict in the Middle East and elevated oil prices have intensified pressure on global bond markets. We expect volatility to persist, but see scope for short-dated yields to decline as inflation moderates and the Fed remains on hold.
House View | Jumpstart
Welcome to CIO Jumpstart, your guide to the main market events coming up in the week ahead
House View Daily | Markets look to Jackson Hole
Investors are looking to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for clues on the path of interest rates. But sticky inflation, geopolitical risks, and strong AI investment could keep policy uncertainty elevated.
House View Daily | Bond markets are repricing more than inflation
This week's pullback in longer-term interest rates looks more like a pause than a reset. Behind the move sits a deeper shift in how investors price growth, policy uncertainty, and government debt.
House View Daily | AI fundamentals remain intact despite tech volatility
As investors look to NVIDIA’s earnings later today, we see supportive AI fundamentals across demand, monetization, and earnings trends. We continue to favor a selective, diversified allocation focused on AI enablers and defensive technology segments.
CIO Live Global | Still room to run?
Markets have continued to climb higher, supported by strong corporate earnings, robust AI-related investment, and expectations that inflation can ease gradually. But the outlook is not dependent on one factor alone. The durability of AI capex, evidence of monetization, the breadth of earnings growth, and the path of inflation and monetary policy will all be important in determining whether the con
House View Daily | Diversify beyond the US dollar
Renewed concerns about US government finances are adding pressure to the dollar. Gold, broad commodities, and select global currencies can help investors diversify dollar exposure and build more resilient portfolios.
House View | Jumpstart
Welcome to CIO Jumpstart, your guide to the main market events coming up in the week ahead
House View Daily | Treasury pressure: The implications across markets
As long-term yields remain elevated, market adjustments may increasingly occur through currencies and commodities rather than bonds alone. A weaker US dollar could support gold and help ease financial conditions, while underpinning a diversified investment approach.
House View Daily | The Treasury’s rare intervention buys time, not a solution
Markets have welcomed signs that US policymakers are willing to respond when bond volatility rises too far, too fast. But we think lasting stability in bond markets will ultimately depend on the underlying inflation, fiscal, and demand backdrop.
House View Daily | Higher yields are testing the equity thesis, not breaking it
Global equities have remained under pressure amid concerns over higher bond yields, rising oil prices, and the outlook for AI capital spending. But we believe the outlook for stocks remains positive. Underlying inflation remains under control, and earnings growth has picked up. Against this backdrop, we continue to view equities as Attractive.
House View Daily | Higher long-end yields do not undermine quality bonds
The recent rise in long-term yields reflects new bond supply and persistent concerns over inflation and deficits. We do not think this undermines the case for quality fixed income, but it does strengthen the need to focus on shorter- and medium-maturity bonds, where we see an attractive risk-reward.
House View Daily | Stocks should stay supported despite a potential pickup in volatility
Implied volatility may not stay low for long, but resilient economic data, strong corporate earnings, and the prospect of a steady Fed should continue to support our positive view on risk assets.
House View Daily | Look globally to diversify stock exposure
Cooling US inflation has helped global stocks reach new highs, but concentration risks remain elevated. We see opportunities to diversify across Europe, Japan, and Asia, supported by earnings resilience, improving cyclical momentum, and structural growth trends.
House View Daily | Quality bonds should find support from cooling inflation
Higher oil prices have tempered investor sentiment ahead of July’s CPI report. We expect core inflation to trend lower in the coming months, allowing the Fed to hold interest rates steady. This would be supportive of our preference for short- and medium-duration quality fixed income.
House View Daily | Robust demand remains key to AI trade despite financing concerns
NVIDIA’s financing push has raised fresh questions about circularity in the AI trade, but strong cloud demand and rising advance orders continue to support our constructive view. We continue to recommend diversified exposure.
House View | Jumpstart
Welcome to CIO Jumpstart, your guide to the main market events coming up in the week ahead
House View Daily | Fed inflation concerns put US data in focus
Renewed uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, reviving concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten policy. Policymakers have made clear that they are willing to raise rates if inflation remains too high. But we believe moderate labor-market slowing and further underlying disinflation will allow the Fed to remain on hold this
House View Daily | Gold’s rally has support
Gold has risen to its highest level in seven weeks, and we think the medium- to longer-term case for holding the metal remains supported by lower real rates, a softer dollar, and central bank buying. We continue to see a role for gold in diversified portfolios.
House View Daily | Strong earnings and easing geopolitical risks lift S&P 500 to record high
Recovering sentiment toward the AI trade, strong earnings results, and signs of diplomatic progress in the US-Iran conflict pushed equities higher on Tuesday. Continued AI investment, broadening earnings growth, and a patient Fed support our constructive view on equities.
House View Daily | AI opportunities beyond tech
The AI story is evolving beyond a narrow tech trade. We see opportunities across the broader value chain, from power to chips to health care.
House View Daily | Earnings strength, disinflation support a constructive outlook
July brought a sharp reminder that geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and crowded trades can still unsettle markets. Even so, stronger earnings, moderating inflation, and resilient demand should help sustain a constructive backdrop for diversified investors.
House View Daily | Constructive fundamentals support further US equity upside
AI investment and monetization, resilient US growth, and a patient Fed should help keep the US equity rally on track. We believe investors should remain broadly diversified to capture opportunities beyond tech as market leadership continues to widen.
House View Daily | Tech earnings point to a broader AI trade
The latest hyperscaler earnings point to strong capital expenditures in the near term and encouraging monetization trends. But pressure on cash flows could lead to a slowdown in capex beyond next year. We think the AI investment opportunity has become more differentiated, and recommend exposure to select semis and defensive tech.
CIO Live Special | Strait to the point
After months of geopolitical uncertainty and heightened market volatility, markets have been quick to respond to both signs of de-escalation and fresh sources of tension. Yet the outlook remains far from straightforward. Questions around the durability of the AI-driven market rally, the path of inflation and interest rates, and the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions continue to shape the invest
House View Daily | Fed policy in focus
While the Fed is likely to hold rates steady today, investors should watch for longer-term changes to how it communicates policy and manages its balance sheet. Potential changes may affect rate volatility, long-term yields, and the role of Fed support in bond markets.
House View Daily | Ensure portfolio resilience to navigate uncertainty
Markets are facing renewed pressure from geopolitical escalation, higher oil prices, rising bond yields, and questions over AI investment returns. Investors should focus on portfolio resilience and strategies that can help manage downside risk while preserving long-term upside potential.
House View Daily | Semis sell-off highlights broader equity opportunities
While we remain constructive on semiconductors amid solid AI demand, recent market performance highlights the case for broader equity exposure. Strong earnings momentum across sectors and regions points to a wider set of opportunities for investors.
CIO Live Global | Testing the rally
With equity markets near record highs, attention is turning to whether corporate earnings can continue to justify market valuations. As the AI investment cycle evolves and opportunities emerge across global markets, investors are also assessing the outlook for inflation, interest rates, the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—and what they could mean for markets and portfolios
House View Daily | Add quality bonds as yields should fall
US Treasury yields have risen as renewed Middle East tensions and higher oil prices have revived inflation concerns, but we expect yields to move lower over the coming quarters. In our view, current elevated yields offer an opportunity to add quality bonds for income, diversification, and potential capital gains.
House View Daily | Big tech earnings to test the AI trade
Earnings from hyperscalers will be a key test for the AI trade as investors look for greater clarity on capex, revenue durability, and margin resilience. While we remain constructive on AI’s longer-term growth story, a balanced approach across and beyond the AI value chain remains important.
House View Daily | Stocks have room to move up despite risks
Hostilities in the Middle East are weighing on investor sentiment already weakened by the sell-off in chipmakers over the past week. But we maintain the view that equities have room to move up, supported by robust earnings strength.
House View Daily | Broad global earnings strength should support equities
Global stocks came under pressure this week amid a selloff in chipmakers and escalating tensions in the Middle East. We think strong earnings growth should continue to support global markets, and investors should seek diversified exposure to participate in market upside.
House View Daily | Understanding semis volatility
South Korea's equity benchmark has fallen more than 25% since its all-time high in June amid regulatory concerns and investor worries over the durability of the broader semiconductors rally. We retain a constructive view on the industry, but think selectivity is key. Investors should also ensure diversified exposure to AI.
House View Daily | Strong earnings should drive US equities higher
We expect second-quarter earnings to deliver another strong set of results, with all sectors likely to report an increase in profits. Our forecast of 28% earnings growth for the S&P 500 is supported by strong AI investment, improving cyclical activity, and solid consumer spending.
House View Daily | Inflation data and Warsh in focus as yields rise
Markets are on edge as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices and Treasury yields higher. Investors will now look to June CPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony for clues on the path of US interest rates. We expect inflation pressures to ease in the coming months, which should ultimately lead to lower bond yields.
House View Daily | US-Iran tensions reinforce the case for portfolio resilience
Continued US-Iran tensions are testing markets, but there are ways investors can consider helping portfolios navigate uncertainty while staying positioned for potential upside.
House View Daily | Maintain diversification amid renewed US-Iran tensions
The path toward a lasting peace deal between the US and Iran is proving to be bumpy, with President Trump saying further negotiations with Tehran were a "waste of time." The most effective method to navigate near-term volatility remains diversification, in our view. But with a diplomatic solution still likely, we expect global equities to move higher, bond yields to decline, and broad comm
House View Daily | Diversify equity exposure as market leadership broadens
As investors assess the next phase of the AI growth story, we believe diversifying equity exposure remains key. We expect the next leg of stock gains to be marked by a broadening of market leadership.
House View Daily | Navigate AI volatility with diversification and selectivity
We remain constructive on the AI theme, but the market narrative is gradually shifting from strong near-term growth to the durability of spending beyond 2027. Investors should ensure diversification and selectivity in their exposure.
House View Daily | Consider broad commodity exposure in portfolios
Despite the recent decline in commodity prices, we believe fundamentals should provide support in the coming months. We also believe broad commodity exposure offers diversification, inflation hedging, and downside protection in a portfolio context.
House View Daily | Warsh’s focus on price stability does not point to rate hikes
Markets are looking to June’s payrolls today for clues on the Fed’s interest rate path after Chair Kevin Warsh offered little indication. We maintain the view that current market conviction around Fed rate hikes is too aggressive and see an opportunity to add to short- and medium-maturity quality bonds.
House View Daily | Stock outlook remains positive after a strong 2Q
Global equities delivered a strong performance in the second quarter, and we think the momentum can continue in the coming months. The next phase of the rally should, in our view, see a broadening of market leadership.
House View Daily | Why the rotation into health care may have room to run
Investors have shifted some capital back into health care amid tech sector volatility, seeking both stability and growth. Recent policy changes around GLP-1s and breakthrough therapies are fueling new optimism for the sector’s outlook in the coming months.
House View Daily | Monitoring AI risks amid volatility
We continue to like the semiconductor complex of the AI story, but recent market volatility has pointed to certain risks worth monitoring. The key for investors remains diversification, both within and beyond AI.
House View Daily | Oil’s path is not a one-way Strait
While oil may stay under pressure in the near term, we expect prices to recover over the coming months, as the normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the recovery of shut-in production may prove slower than expected. We continue to see value in broad commodity exposure in a portfolio context.
House View Daily | Why gold could stage a rebound
Gold has fallen to its lowest level in nearly eight months, but we think this offers an opportunity for underallocated investors to build strategic exposure. We believe the investment case for gold remains positive, as we believe the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in the near term, and the US dollar should weaken as the year progresses. Gold has also historically provided diversification benefits
House View Daily | Equities can move higher despite tech sell-off
Risk sentiment weakened amid pressure on semiconductor stocks, but we believe the recent correction should be seen in the context of the strong rally in recent months. While we remain confident in the AI growth story, we also expect that the next phase of stock gains will come from a broader range of opportunities.
House View Daily | Why we think a Fed hike remains unlikely
We view current market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in the near term as too aggressive, as inflation should moderate in the coming months, growth may soften, and broader changes at the Fed could slow down policy reaction. We continue to see an attractive risk-return profile for short- and medium-duration quality bonds.
House View Daily | Record equity issuance shouldn't be a headwind for equity markets
The window has swung back open for new IPOs and secondary offerings, with share issuance likely to reach a record high in dollar terms this year. But we do not think this will be challenging to absorb given the growth of the overall equity market.
House View Daily | Why we believe equities can still move higher
The AI rally has been one of the defining features of markets in the first half of the year. While we think it can drive further gains, we also believe the rally will continue to broaden across the rest of the market. We think investors should stay invested, while keeping diversification at the center of portfolio construction
House View Daily | Warsh era starts on a hawkish note
The FOMC held the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, but the combination of higher inflation projections, a hawkish distribution of rate forecasts, and the removal of forward guidance points to a restrictive-for-longer policy stance.
