UBS On-Air: House View
House View brings you daily, weekly, and monthly content covering our multi-asset views on economic trends and financial markets from the UBS Chief Investment Office.
Episodes
House View Daily | Treasury pressure: The implications across markets
As long-term yields remain elevated, market adjustments may increasingly occur through currencies and commodities rather than bonds alone. A weaker US dollar could support gold and help ease financial conditions, while underpinning a diversified investment approach.
House View Daily | The Treasury’s rare intervention buys time, not a solution
Markets have welcomed signs that US policymakers are willing to respond when bond volatility rises too far, too fast. But we think lasting stability in bond markets will ultimately depend on the underlying inflation, fiscal, and demand backdrop.
House View Daily | Higher yields are testing the equity thesis, not breaking it
Global equities have remained under pressure amid concerns over higher bond yields, rising oil prices, and the outlook for AI capital spending. But we believe the outlook for stocks remains positive. Underlying inflation remains under control, and earnings growth has picked up. Against this backdrop, we continue to view equities as Attractive.
House View Daily | Higher long-end yields do not undermine quality bonds
The recent rise in long-term yields reflects new bond supply and persistent concerns over inflation and deficits. We do not think this undermines the case for quality fixed income, but it does strengthen the need to focus on shorter- and medium-maturity bonds, where we see an attractive risk-reward.
House View Daily | Stocks should stay supported despite a potential pickup in volatility
Implied volatility may not stay low for long, but resilient economic data, strong corporate earnings, and the prospect of a steady Fed should continue to support our positive view on risk assets.
House View Daily | Look globally to diversify stock exposure
Cooling US inflation has helped global stocks reach new highs, but concentration risks remain elevated. We see opportunities to diversify across Europe, Japan, and Asia, supported by earnings resilience, improving cyclical momentum, and structural growth trends.
House View Daily | Quality bonds should find support from cooling inflation
Higher oil prices have tempered investor sentiment ahead of July’s CPI report. We expect core inflation to trend lower in the coming months, allowing the Fed to hold interest rates steady. This would be supportive of our preference for short- and medium-duration quality fixed income.
House View Daily | Robust demand remains key to AI trade despite financing concerns
NVIDIA’s financing push has raised fresh questions about circularity in the AI trade, but strong cloud demand and rising advance orders continue to support our constructive view. We continue to recommend diversified exposure.
House View | Jumpstart
Welcome to CIO Jumpstart, your guide to the main market events coming up in the week ahead
House View Daily | Fed inflation concerns put US data in focus
Renewed uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, reviving concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten policy. Policymakers have made clear that they are willing to raise rates if inflation remains too high. But we believe moderate labor-market slowing and further underlying disinflation will allow the Fed to remain on hold this
House View Daily | Gold’s rally has support
Gold has risen to its highest level in seven weeks, and we think the medium- to longer-term case for holding the metal remains supported by lower real rates, a softer dollar, and central bank buying. We continue to see a role for gold in diversified portfolios.
House View Daily | Strong earnings and easing geopolitical risks lift S&P 500 to record high
Recovering sentiment toward the AI trade, strong earnings results, and signs of diplomatic progress in the US-Iran conflict pushed equities higher on Tuesday. Continued AI investment, broadening earnings growth, and a patient Fed support our constructive view on equities.
House View Daily | AI opportunities beyond tech
The AI story is evolving beyond a narrow tech trade. We see opportunities across the broader value chain, from power to chips to health care.
House View Daily | Earnings strength, disinflation support a constructive outlook
July brought a sharp reminder that geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and crowded trades can still unsettle markets. Even so, stronger earnings, moderating inflation, and resilient demand should help sustain a constructive backdrop for diversified investors.
House View Daily | Constructive fundamentals support further US equity upside
AI investment and monetization, resilient US growth, and a patient Fed should help keep the US equity rally on track. We believe investors should remain broadly diversified to capture opportunities beyond tech as market leadership continues to widen.
House View Daily | Tech earnings point to a broader AI trade
The latest hyperscaler earnings point to strong capital expenditures in the near term and encouraging monetization trends. But pressure on cash flows could lead to a slowdown in capex beyond next year. We think the AI investment opportunity has become more differentiated, and recommend exposure to select semis and defensive tech.
CIO Live Special | Strait to the point
After months of geopolitical uncertainty and heightened market volatility, markets have been quick to respond to both signs of de-escalation and fresh sources of tension. Yet the outlook remains far from straightforward. Questions around the durability of the AI-driven market rally, the path of inflation and interest rates, and the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions continue to shape the invest
House View Daily | Fed policy in focus
While the Fed is likely to hold rates steady today, investors should watch for longer-term changes to how it communicates policy and manages its balance sheet. Potential changes may affect rate volatility, long-term yields, and the role of Fed support in bond markets.
House View Daily | Ensure portfolio resilience to navigate uncertainty
Markets are facing renewed pressure from geopolitical escalation, higher oil prices, rising bond yields, and questions over AI investment returns. Investors should focus on portfolio resilience and strategies that can help manage downside risk while preserving long-term upside potential.
House View Daily | Semis sell-off highlights broader equity opportunities
While we remain constructive on semiconductors amid solid AI demand, recent market performance highlights the case for broader equity exposure. Strong earnings momentum across sectors and regions points to a wider set of opportunities for investors.
CIO Live Global | Testing the rally
With equity markets near record highs, attention is turning to whether corporate earnings can continue to justify market valuations. As the AI investment cycle evolves and opportunities emerge across global markets, investors are also assessing the outlook for inflation, interest rates, the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—and what they could mean for markets and portfolios
House View Daily | Add quality bonds as yields should fall
US Treasury yields have risen as renewed Middle East tensions and higher oil prices have revived inflation concerns, but we expect yields to move lower over the coming quarters. In our view, current elevated yields offer an opportunity to add quality bonds for income, diversification, and potential capital gains.
House View Daily | Big tech earnings to test the AI trade
Earnings from hyperscalers will be a key test for the AI trade as investors look for greater clarity on capex, revenue durability, and margin resilience. While we remain constructive on AI’s longer-term growth story, a balanced approach across and beyond the AI value chain remains important.
House View Daily | Stocks have room to move up despite risks
Hostilities in the Middle East are weighing on investor sentiment already weakened by the sell-off in chipmakers over the past week. But we maintain the view that equities have room to move up, supported by robust earnings strength.
House View Daily | Broad global earnings strength should support equities
Global stocks came under pressure this week amid a selloff in chipmakers and escalating tensions in the Middle East. We think strong earnings growth should continue to support global markets, and investors should seek diversified exposure to participate in market upside.
House View Daily | Understanding semis volatility
South Korea's equity benchmark has fallen more than 25% since its all-time high in June amid regulatory concerns and investor worries over the durability of the broader semiconductors rally. We retain a constructive view on the industry, but think selectivity is key. Investors should also ensure diversified exposure to AI.
House View Daily | Strong earnings should drive US equities higher
We expect second-quarter earnings to deliver another strong set of results, with all sectors likely to report an increase in profits. Our forecast of 28% earnings growth for the S&P 500 is supported by strong AI investment, improving cyclical activity, and solid consumer spending.
House View Daily | Inflation data and Warsh in focus as yields rise
Markets are on edge as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices and Treasury yields higher. Investors will now look to June CPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony for clues on the path of US interest rates. We expect inflation pressures to ease in the coming months, which should ultimately lead to lower bond yields.
House View Daily | US-Iran tensions reinforce the case for portfolio resilience
Continued US-Iran tensions are testing markets, but there are ways investors can consider helping portfolios navigate uncertainty while staying positioned for potential upside.
House View Daily | Maintain diversification amid renewed US-Iran tensions
The path toward a lasting peace deal between the US and Iran is proving to be bumpy, with President Trump saying further negotiations with Tehran were a "waste of time." The most effective method to navigate near-term volatility remains diversification, in our view. But with a diplomatic solution still likely, we expect global equities to move higher, bond yields to decline, and broad comm
House View Daily | Diversify equity exposure as market leadership broadens
As investors assess the next phase of the AI growth story, we believe diversifying equity exposure remains key. We expect the next leg of stock gains to be marked by a broadening of market leadership.
House View Daily | Navigate AI volatility with diversification and selectivity
We remain constructive on the AI theme, but the market narrative is gradually shifting from strong near-term growth to the durability of spending beyond 2027. Investors should ensure diversification and selectivity in their exposure.
House View Daily | Consider broad commodity exposure in portfolios
Despite the recent decline in commodity prices, we believe fundamentals should provide support in the coming months. We also believe broad commodity exposure offers diversification, inflation hedging, and downside protection in a portfolio context.
House View Daily | Warsh’s focus on price stability does not point to rate hikes
Markets are looking to June’s payrolls today for clues on the Fed’s interest rate path after Chair Kevin Warsh offered little indication. We maintain the view that current market conviction around Fed rate hikes is too aggressive and see an opportunity to add to short- and medium-maturity quality bonds.
House View Daily | Stock outlook remains positive after a strong 2Q
Global equities delivered a strong performance in the second quarter, and we think the momentum can continue in the coming months. The next phase of the rally should, in our view, see a broadening of market leadership.
House View Daily | Why the rotation into health care may have room to run
Investors have shifted some capital back into health care amid tech sector volatility, seeking both stability and growth. Recent policy changes around GLP-1s and breakthrough therapies are fueling new optimism for the sector’s outlook in the coming months.
House View Daily | Monitoring AI risks amid volatility
We continue to like the semiconductor complex of the AI story, but recent market volatility has pointed to certain risks worth monitoring. The key for investors remains diversification, both within and beyond AI.
House View Daily | Oil’s path is not a one-way Strait
While oil may stay under pressure in the near term, we expect prices to recover over the coming months, as the normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the recovery of shut-in production may prove slower than expected. We continue to see value in broad commodity exposure in a portfolio context.
House View Daily | Why gold could stage a rebound
Gold has fallen to its lowest level in nearly eight months, but we think this offers an opportunity for underallocated investors to build strategic exposure. We believe the investment case for gold remains positive, as we believe the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in the near term, and the US dollar should weaken as the year progresses. Gold has also historically provided diversification benefits
House View Daily | Equities can move higher despite tech sell-off
Risk sentiment weakened amid pressure on semiconductor stocks, but we believe the recent correction should be seen in the context of the strong rally in recent months. While we remain confident in the AI growth story, we also expect that the next phase of stock gains will come from a broader range of opportunities.
House View Daily | Why we think a Fed hike remains unlikely
We view current market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in the near term as too aggressive, as inflation should moderate in the coming months, growth may soften, and broader changes at the Fed could slow down policy reaction. We continue to see an attractive risk-return profile for short- and medium-duration quality bonds.
House View Daily | Record equity issuance shouldn't be a headwind for equity markets
The window has swung back open for new IPOs and secondary offerings, with share issuance likely to reach a record high in dollar terms this year. But we do not think this will be challenging to absorb given the growth of the overall equity market.
House View Daily | Why we believe equities can still move higher
The AI rally has been one of the defining features of markets in the first half of the year. While we think it can drive further gains, we also believe the rally will continue to broaden across the rest of the market. We think investors should stay invested, while keeping diversification at the center of portfolio construction
House View Daily | Warsh era starts on a hawkish note
The FOMC held the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, but the combination of higher inflation projections, a hawkish distribution of rate forecasts, and the removal of forward guidance points to a restrictive-for-longer policy stance.
House View Daily | Markets on Warsh watch
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady today, but markets will be watching Kevin Warsh's debut press conference as chair and his outlook on inflation and rates. We maintain the view that the Fed should resume easing next year, benefiting short- and medium-duration quality bonds.
House View Daily | What tighter US frontier model rules could mean for the AI trade
An unexpected US intervention shows how quickly AI policy can shift from theory to tangible risk. With this year’s equity rally directly linked to AI demand expectations, we examine how a tighter US regulatory approach could impact AI spending, talent, and model leadership.
House View Daily | US-Iran deal raises market optimism
The US and Iran have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with official signing scheduled later this week. Volatility may persist in the near term as markets assess the implementation and durability of the deal, but we maintain our view that resilient growth and robust earnings should continue to drive stocks higher. We continue to recommend investors hold a diversified portfolio a
House View Daily | Volatility in AI and tech do not derail the investment thesis
Market swings may persist as geopolitics, rates, and funding questions collide, but the underlying buildout driving AI-linked equities remains intact, in our view. Investors should stay invested in the AI opportunity, while rotating exposure toward areas with clearer demand visibility and stronger earnings support.
House View Daily | Equities fall on tech pressures
US equities and bonds fell in tandem on Friday, as concerns over potential Fed rate hikes, equity issuance by Meta, Broadcom's disappointing AI revenue outlook, and a reversal in semiconductor stocks weighed on markets. However, after the recent rally, a pullback was expected. Despite renewed worries, we expect the rally to resume.
House View Daily | Markets should overcome near-term headwinds
US stocks fell to their lowest level in over a month as a tech-led sell-off deepened, the war in Iran showed little signs of ending, and accelerating inflation intensified Federal Reserve hike worries. But we think near-term Fed hikes remain unlikely, AI fundamentals are still strong, and a path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz should become clearer. Investors should stay positioned for equit
House View Daily | Renewed tech selling leads markets lower
US stocks fell on Tuesday after an earlier rise on optimism about an imminent US-Iran deal. While the path toward a resolution is likely to be uneven, our base case is that diplomacy ultimately prevails, allowing investors to refocus on resilient economic fundamentals and robust earnings growth in both the US and Europe.
House View Daily | Health care offers more than a defensive role in portfolios
Health care has traditionally been viewed as a defensive sector, but investors should not ignore the innovative growth opportunities it offers. Supported by technological advances and a structural shift in demographics, we favor global health care and hold a positive outlook on the Longevity theme.
Washington Weekly Podcast: Davos takeaways, Greenland, Government shutdown
Shane returns to share some reflections on President Trump’s policy remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week. This includes a look at where the Trump administration’s pursuit of Greenland stands, and what next-steps could look like in terms of negotiations with Denmark and the broader European Union. Plus, a look at where efforts stand on Capitol Hill to avoid a parti
Washington Weekly Podcast: Healthcare, Defense, Congressional stock trading
As we close out the series for 2025, Shane drops by for a Capitol Hill roundup as we cover developments surrounding Congressional votes on healthcare legislation, and the National Defense Authorization Act. Plus, some thoughts on renewed bipartisan efforts to ban Congressional stock trading. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs U.S. Host: Daniel
Washington Weekly Podcast: Russia-Ukraine, Venezuela, Congressional agenda
Shane drops by for a geopolitics roundup with updates on the latest developments with respect to the Russia-Ukraine War and Venezuela. We also review the priorities of Congress through year-end and into early 2026. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Washington Weekly Podcast: Election Day, IEEPA hearing, Government shutdown
Shane joins to update on a variety of timely topics, including the implications of potential Election Day outcomes, the prospects for an end to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, along with the Supreme Court’s hearing on the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affai
Washington Weekly Podcast: Government shutdown update, US-China trade talks
Shane joins mid-week for an update on the US government shutdown, including a look at impacted services, and where negotiations stand to re-open the government. We also touch on recent developments surrounding US-China trade talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Washington Weekly Podcast: Government shutdown, U.S. Drug Pricing
As the U.S. government has entered a shutdown, Shane drops by to explain the scope of impact, along with next steps with respect to negotiations. Plus, thoughts on yesterday’s Oval Office announcement related to drug pricing. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Washington Weekly Podcast: Russia-Ukraine, DC crime reduction, Congressional fall preview
Shane drops by for a late-summer update with thoughts on recent and ongoing efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine War, actions taken by the Trump administration to reduce crime in Washington DC, and to preview the legislative agenda and tasks ahead for Congress upon their return to Capitol Hill in September. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. H
Washington Weekly Podcast: Trade deals, Congressional redistricting, Early recess
Shane drops by to share the latest developments on trade, spanning Japan to the European Union. We also touch on efforts by both sides of the isle to redraw Congressional districts in states such as Texas, California, and New York. Plus, a look at why the August recess for Congress has commenced early, and what to watch out for when lawmakers return to Capitol Hill in September. Featured is Sha
Washington Weekly Podcast: Crypto week, Tariffs, Russia-Ukraine
Shane drops by to highlight the legislative focuses of Congress post One Big Beautiful Bill, including a look into “Crypto Week” which is currently taking place up on Capitol Hill. We also touch on the latest with respect to US trade policy and negotiations with the EU and Mexico. Plus, thoughts on the latest US involvement in the Russia-Ukraine War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governme
Washington Weekly Podcast: Middle East, NATO, Reconciliation package, Genuis Bill
Shane drops by with the latest developments out of the Middle East, as we continue to monitor the US, Israel, Iran ceasefire, and assess last weekend’s US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Plus, takeaways from this week’s NATO summit in the Netherlands, and a status update on the Reconciliation package being worked through Congress. We also touch on Congressional efforts to establish a regulatory
Washington Weekly Podcast: Middle East, Capitol Hill, US-China trade & more
Shane drops by to share the latest developments out of the Middle East involving Israel and Iran, along with notable domestic developments spanning progress on the One Big Beautiful Bill, and Federal response to recent occurrences of civil unrest. Plus, thoughts on the outcome of this week’s round of US-China trade talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governme
Top of the Morning: POTUS 47 - Has the worst of the tariff threat passed?
Kurt rejoins the conversation in studio to reflect on the latest developments surrounding US trade policy, along with how markets have reacted - plus, thoughts on how the progression of trade negotiations (most notably with China) may progress in the weeks and months ahead. We also discuss investor concern stemming from the US fiscal outlook, and the path forward for the US budgetary situation.
Washington Weekly Podcast: Trade update, Russia-Ukraine, Capitol Hill roundup
With the US Senate set to shortly weigh in on the “Big, Beautiful Bill”, Shane roadmaps the potential next-steps, along with the potential timing of arrival on President Trump’s desk. We also cover progress being made towards a Congressional stock trading ban, update on Russia-Ukraine talks, and weigh in on Wednesday’s notable trade developments. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental
Washington Weekly Podcast: Middle East trip, China trade, Tax legislation
Shane drops by on a Monday to preview a busy week ahead, accounting for President Trump’s highly anticipated Middle East visit. We also spend time recapping the outcome of this past weekend’s trade negotiations in Switzerland between the US and China, along with other notable progress made recently on the trade front. Plus, and update as to where progress on Capitol Hill stands with respect to t
Washington Weekly Podcast: First 100 days, Reconciliation bill, Russia-Ukraine
Shane reflects on the first 100 days of the Trump administration, along with updates on where efforts and negotiations stand on Capitol Hill surrounding a substantial reconciliation bill. Plus, a look at current US-Ukraine relations and where efforts stand with Russia peace talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Washington Weekly Podcast: Tariff developments, Budget resolution & more
As US trade policy continues to evolve quickly, Shane drops by to update us on the latest, and what the near-term may consist of with respect to negotiations. We also discuss progress around the budget resolution up on Capitol Hill, and recap Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s White House visit earlier this week. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affa
Washington Weekly Podcast: Latest on tariffs, Signal, Geopolitics roundup
Shane recaps this week’s developments surrounding auto tariffs and previews potential additional tariff-related announcements set for next week. We also discuss the aftermath of this week’s Signal leak, and provide updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Israel-Hamas war. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Washington Weekly Podcast: Latest on Gov’t funding, Tariffs, Ukraine, CHIPS Act
With the government funding deadline just hours away, Shane outlines what the proposed continuing resolution consists of, and updates on where negotiations stand. Plus, an inventory of US imposed tariffs, along with retaliatory measures by trading partners. We also check in on progress of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement and speak to the likelihood of a CHIPS Act reversal. Featured is Shane
Washington Weekly Podcast: Trade policy, Ukraine, Government funding
We cover a wide range of timely topics, including tariffs and US trade policy, efforts for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, along with US government funding and budgetary efforts. Plus, a preview of President Trump’s address to Congress. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Washington Weekly Podcast: Capitol Hill & Geopolitics roundup
Against the backdrop of a potential shutdown of the US government next month, Shane updates us on a range of priorities being addressed by Congress. We also update on the status of remaining cabinet-level confirmation hearings, along with ongoing negotiations for a Russia-Ukraine war resolution. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Da
Washington Weekly Podcast: Tarriff timetable, Cabinet hearings, Week one recap
Following what has been a busy first week in office for President Trump, Shane recaps some of the notable executive actions, developments, and travel. Plus, we update on the progress of cabinet hearings and confirmations, along with preview what a timeline for tariffs could like in the coming days and weeks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US.
Washington Weekly Podcast: First 100 days, Legislative agenda, President Carter
We kick-off 2025 by previewing President-elect Trump’s first 100 days in office, along with the legislative focuses and priorities of Congress in the months ahead. Plus, reflections on the life and legacy of late President Jimmy Carter. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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