All into Account
Thought leaders from J.P. Morgan Global Research discuss cross asset investing and highlight key trends impacting financial markets.
Episodes
All into Account: How to win a Trade War
In this episode, Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research, is joined by Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics to discuss his new book, How to Win a Trade War: An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy, and what “winning” means in a world where trade wars are increasingly becoming the default setting.
Speakers:
Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research, J.P. Morgan
Chad
From Barrels to Ballots: Middle East and Midterm Elections
In this episode we are pleased to feature two expert guest speakers: Mike Singh, who is Managing Director and a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and former senior director for Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council and Daniel Silverberg, who is a Partner at Capstone and brings deep experience at the intersection of national security and Washington policymaking from his time
All into Account: What to Watch for at the Trump-Xi Summit
In this episode, we take a closer look at what to watch for in the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, which will be the first U.S. presidential visit to Beijing in nearly nine years, including what realistic deliverables may look like. We are pleased to welcome two leading experts: Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and Navin Gi
Where the gaps persist – The Five Ws of gender balance
In this podcast we discuss global gender parity trends in women’s workforce participation, pay, and wealth building, and assess emerging challenges from declining fertility and a shrinking working-age population alongside broader AI adoption where gender gaps remain pronounced.
Guest Speakers:
Tynnetta McIntosh, Global Head, Office of Women's Affairs
George Eckerd, Research Direct
Lessons Learned from Eric Beinstein: A 40-Year Perspective on the Evolution of Credit Markets
In this All into Account podcast, we feature a final interview with Eric Beinstein, Head of US Credit Strategy, where he discusses the most significant transformations shaping the credit markets. He reflects on today’s record tight spreads, record levels of issuance, and the rapid growth of private credit, offering his insights on how these trends have transformed the market. After an impressive 4
Beyond the Surface: Commodity Crossroads - Unpacking the 2026 Outlook
Featured in this podcast is Natasha Kaneva. Join us as we explore the dynamic world of commodities with Natasha Kanvea, Head of Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan. In this episode of “Beyond the Surface” podcast series, Natasha shares her expert insights and outlook on gold, oil, metals, and agri commodities for 2026 and 2027.
This podcast was recorded on Dec 17, 2025.
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Beyond the Surface: Dollar Dilemmas and Global Shifts: The FX Forecast for 2026
Featured in this podcast is Meera Chandan.
This podcast was recorded on Dec 7, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-5133847-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights r
The Dark Side of Digital Progress
In this episode Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research, is joined by Amy Ho, Strategic Research, Brian Essex, Security Software Equity Research, J.P. Morgan's Global Chief Information Security Officer Pat Opet, and JF Legault, Deputy CISO and Global Technology Chief Control Manager to discuss the rapidly evolving cybersecurity landscape. Cyber threats rank among the top five global risks, surpassin
Cross-Asset Quant Topics: Trend following on Factors, Case for Comm QIS, Crowding Metrics
Tom Salopek & Dobromir Tzotchev discuss trend-following performance given an environment of policy uncertainty. We look to our earlier work of applying trend-following on Equity factors and our new piece where we apply this idea broadly. In an environment where reacceleration can turn inflationary, Commodity QIS should become more important and the momentum signals for Commodity QIS are turnin
Beyond the Surface: The US Shutdown – Economic and Market Perspective
This podcast was recorded on 13th Oct 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5094689-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof
New York Climate Week Speaker Series: Europe’s Policy Transformation: Competitiveness, Climate, Sovereignty
In a dynamic panel discussion, JX & team explore how the EU’s latest regulatory momentum is driving competitiveness through bold simplification, reshaping the landscape for climate funding mechanisms, and fueling the rise of sovereignty as an investment theme and strategic priority that is transforming the region’s energy mix. Don’t miss this opportunity to gain fresh insights at the intersect
New York Climate Week Speaker Series: The Challenges and Opportunities of Adapting to Climate Change
Last year was the hottest on record at about 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, highlighting the urgency of not just mitigating GHG emissions but also the importance of learning to live on and adapt to a warmer planet. In a fireside chat, Virginia and Mark discuss all things adaptation: policies, COP 30, development finance, catastrophe bonds and, of course, investment strategies.
Speakers
Vir
New York Climate Week Speaker Series: The Future of US Clean Energy
Mark Strouse discusses recent trends and his team’s outlook for the US renewable energy market. The space has been very dynamic with cross-currents spanning surging electricity demand, and impacts from the US One Big Beautiful Bill Act and a related safe harbor update.
Speaker
Mark Strouse, CFA, US Clean Energy / Sustainable Investing Senior Analyst
This podcast was recorded on 23 September 20
All into Account: Final Take with Chief Economist for China, Haibin Zhu: Revisiting Made in China 2025 – Lessons learned and what lies ahead
In this podcast, featuring a final interview with Chief China Economist Haibin Zhu, he shares invaluable lessons learned and offers insights into China’s outlook within the evolving global landscape. He notes the significant progress of the "Made in China 2025" initiative, which has propelled China from a follower to a leader across sectors. Haibin explores the strategic competition between the US
Beyond the Surface: Navigating the Future - One Big Beautiful Bill Act
This podcast was recorded on Jul 22, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-5027057-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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All Into Account: The State of US Housing: Market Dynamics and Policy Shifts
In this podcast, J.P. Morgan Research analysts examine the resiliency in US home prices, despite slower growth and higher rates, and the commercial real estate crisis. They provide insight into the drivers behind the frozen housing market, the challenges facing homebuilders, and the evolving role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac amidst discussions of GSE privatization. The discussion delves into the
All Into Account: Navigating Global Housing Challenges Beyond the US
In this podcast, J.P. Morgan Research analysts highlight emerging signs of relief in the housing affordability crisis across China, Japan, and the UK. The discussion focuses on whether we are approaching a bottom in China’s housing prices and additional policy support. There are concerns about leverage and the rise in property prices in Japan as the BOJ pursues policy normalization, while the UK h
All Into Account: Exploring Housing Affordability: Insights from the JPMorganChase Institute
In this podcast, J.P. Morgan Research analysts discuss housing affordability with key insights from the JPMorganChase Institute (JPMCI). Building on a decade of research, the Institute has provided a comprehensive understanding of how consumers purchase homes, navigate recent surges in home prices, and accumulate wealth.
The current housing market is redefining economic opportunities in the US,
The Best of The Long-Term Strategist
In this All Into Account podcast Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research and Jan Loeys, Long-term Strategist discuss the following topics:
Regime shifts that are not yet reflected in asset prices and implications for strategic asset allocation
• Global warming and climate change
• Working-age depopulation in DM
• Shift from Democracy to Populism
• De-globalization
• Higher US bond yields
Current
ESG in Transition: Triumphs, Trials and Tensions
In this podcast Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research is joined by Virginia Martin Heriz, JX Hecker and Paul Xu in J.P. Morgan’s ESG Research team to discuss the current landscape dictating the future of ESG, including the political backdrop under Trump 2.0, geopolitical risks, the US-China strategic competition and the rising energy demands from data center expansion to fuel the AI revolution, as
Podcast - Beyond the Surface: From Conflict to Market: The Israel-Iran Impact on Oil Prices
As geopolitical dynamics shift, we explore the potential impacts on oil markets, considering both the immediate risks and the broader implications for global energy stability.
Podcast: Beyond the Surface Rethinking Global Linkages Amid Geopolitical Shifts
Featured in this podcast is Amy Ho. As the new world order fosters regionalization and new alliances, we explore the implications for globalization, industrial policies, and shifting international trade dynamics.
This podcast was recorded on Nov 18, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important
All Into Account: Changing demographics and markets
Demography is destiny and thus a critical consideration for the long-term investor. What are the long-term trends and how will they affect markets?
Speakers:
Jan Loeys, Long-term Strategy
Alexander Wise, Long-term Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 9 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm
All Into Account: Cross Asset Strategy: “View on ECB and European duration as macro picture shifts” with Fabio Bassi, Head of International Rates Strategy
Fabio Bassi joins us to discuss ECB outlook and duration views. Idiosyncratic macro dynamic came to the forefront of rates markets this week with a notable outperformance of EUR rates in a bull steepening move, driven by weak Euro area flash PMI for September and selective inflation data in France and Spain. Higher conviction in the broad disinflation process in the Euro area and downside risk on
All into Account: Cross Asset Strategy: “Japanese Stocks and JPY: what’s next after the BoJ and FOMC?” with Rie Nishihara, Head of Japan Equity Strategy and Junya Tanase, Chief Japan FX Strategist
Speakers:
Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy
Rie Nishihara, Head of Japan Equity Strategy
Junya Tanase, Chief Japan FX Strategist
This podcast was recorded on Sept 25, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4797455-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-47
All into Account: “Comparing US and Europe High Yield and Leveraged Credit” with Daniel Lamy, Head of Europe Credit Strategy, and Nelson Jantzen, Head of US High Yield and Leveraged Loan Strategy
Daniel and Nelson join us to break down the differences between the European and US High Yield and Leveraged Loan markets, aka comparing apples and oranges. We do a thorough comparison of the asset class universes in terms of ratings and industry composition, and how this has played out in terms of spreads and returns.
Speakers:
Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy
Daniel Lamy, Head of Eu
All into Account: Technical Strategy – Weak risky market seasonality sets markets up for a test of critical support
Jason Hunter discusses bearish Sep-Oct equity seasonality, critical chart support for the semiconductor group, and the potential that the spring-summer price action marks a large top pattern on the heels of the 2022-2024 bull market. He also highlights the 2s/5s yield curve longer-term base pattern breakout and the prospects for a steepening trend acceleration.
Speakers:
Jason Hunter, Head of T
PODCAST - Beyond the Surface: Indian Equity Market – Resilience and cautious optimism
Featured in this podcast is Rajiv Batra. The Indian Equity Market has remained resilient in the face of volatility in global markets. As such, we discuss how the Indian markets are positioned and what are the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.
This podcast was recorded on Aug 29, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the relate
All into Account: Technical Strategy – Sharp risk-off seems to be more position-driven and technical than fundamental at this point
Jason Hunter discusses the sharp July trends across fixed income, currency, equity, and commodity markets. While they look more technical and position-driven at the moment, the late-cycle signals coming from cross-market relationships and lower-frequency pattern development suggests the summer shifts can mark the start of something more durable.
Speakers:
Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy
Equity Strategy: July Chartbook
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
SPW, an equal-weighted S&P500 index, has stalled since March, and is behind SPX so far this year by more than 10%. We think this is reflecting a changing Growth-Policy narrative vs early 2024. Entering this year, investor expectations were for a Goldilocks outcome – growth acceleration and at the same time quick Fed easing, starting
Equity Strategy: When will Eurozone equities be able to move on?
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
After meaningfully lagging the US in 2nd half of last year, Eurozone equities showed some relative stabilization in Q1/Q2, before breaking lower most recently on a spike in French political uncertainty. We have closed the UW on Eurozone vs the US in Q1, driven by the improving Growth - Policy tradeoff in the region, but we believed that
All into Account: ‘French Elections update and the view on European Rates,’ with Raphael Brun-Aguerre, European Economist and Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist
Raphael joins us to provide an overview of the French political developments and their potential impact on the economy. Aditya provides an update of his scenarios for European rates markets and how to position for duration, as we consider whether this situation is idiosyncratic to France or broadening to other Euro sovereign spreads.
Speakers:
Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy
Ra
Equity Strategy: Will the more Defensive sector performance, seen so far in Q2, have legs?
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
In contrast to Q1, when key bond proxy Defensive sectors – Utilities, Real Estate and Staples – were the three worst performers, Q2 has brought a change. QTD, these three sectors are in line in Europe, making a positive swing in performance of 10%. The worst performers so far this quarter are Autos, Travel & Leisure, Chemicals, Luxur
Equity Strategy: UK elections – we favour FTSE250 over FTSE100, also homebuilders and domestic plays
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 09 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4713514-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
All into Account: ‘View on Japan ahead of BoJ’ with Ayako Fujita, Chief Japan Economist and Takafumi Yamawaki, Chief Japan Rates Strategist
Looking ahead to next week’s BoJ monetary policy meeting, Fujita-san joins us to share her views of what to expect including the timing of QT, the rate hiking trajectory, terminal rates, and the inflation outlook. Yamawaki-san explains what’s been driving the move up in JGB yield post NIRP. With regard to the upcoming MPM, we see some upside for yields from here as the market is underpricing rate
Equity Strategy: June Chartbook - Sticky inflation and moderating growth are not a great combination; Keep up Defensive rotation, seen so far in Q2, together with Commodities
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
Last couple of months are showing softening US growth momentum, but at the same time an increasing potential for higher for longer Fed. We see the market upside capped during summer due to the inconsistency between consensus call for disinflation on one hand, and the belief in no landing and in earnings acceleration on the other. Within
All into Account: ‘US Credit: latest views on HG & HY’ with Eric Beinstein, Head of US Credit Strategy and Nelson Jantzen, Head of US High Yield and Leveraged Loan Strategy
Eric and Nelson join us to discuss their views on HG and HY. For HG, we review what’s driving the low volatility of credit spreads, whether credit investors becoming more defensive, and what would cause spreads to break out either way. For HY, we highlight our recent forecast revisions, our default rate assumptions, and how recent capital market activity is affecting spreads.
Speakers:
Thomas Sa
Equity Strategy: Sector and Style leadership ahead of rate cuts
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
In this report, we focus on two topics: first, at sector level on the Cyclicals vs Defensives performance into rate cuts and against the backdrop of falling bond yields, and at the style level on the performance of Large vs Small caps. Historically, Defensives and bond proxies struggled when bond yields would be moving higher. This phase
Equity Strategy - Earnings trends are showing a rotation in certain areas
Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
Q1 reporting season again showed an age-old pattern of beats vs heavily lowered expectations. For full year 2024, earnings projections in the US are unchanged ytd, and down a few percent in Europe. The downgrades to sellside analyst EPS expectations throughout the year are nothing unusual, they happen most of the time, without adverse e
Equity Strategy - Better China trading could have some more to go; implications for regional/sector trades
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
After a terrible spell between Jan ’23 and January of this year, where MSCI China lost almost 40%, it is now up 25% from the lows. While we do not believe that the longer term structural concerns of deflationary backdrop, real estate demand-supply imbalances, credit saturation and global decoupling are finished, our tactical view remains
All into Account: ‘Decoupling or not decoupling: outlook on Euro rates’ with Fabio Bassi, Head of International Rates Strategy
It’s been a tough year for both getting long outright duration or being long steepeners. We expect disinflation will reassert itself, but in the near term, there is event risk (e.g., CPI & HICP numbers) making us cautious. Fabio joins us to discuss the catalysts to trade duration, the curve, and intra-EMU spreads.
Speakers
Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy
Fabio Bassi, Head of Inte
Key Macro Takeaways from the 2024 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings
Speakers:
Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research
Jan Loeys, Long-term Strategy
Joe Lupton, Economic and Policy Research
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research
Steve Dulake, Global Head of Credit, Securitized Products and Public Finance Research
This podcast was recorded on 7 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the relate
Equity Strategy: May Chartbook - Entering seasonally tricky time of the year, on top of a challenging combination of inflation at risk of staying too high and profit margin pressures
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
We are concerned about inflation staying too high if there is no slack created in the economy, adverse bonds demand-supply with negative term premia, consensus expectation of profit acceleration of almost 20% between Q1 and Q4 of this year, which doesn’t typically happen, especially if the economy softens in 2H, consumer tailwinds potent
Equity Strategy: Eurozone delivering on an improving risk-reward; Sector/style trading around the first ECB cut
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Global Head of Equity Strategy
At the overall market level, we remain concerned about the repeat of last summer’s drawdown, inflation staying too hot is a real possibility, market will not like it if bond yields move above 5%. Within this, we have made some regional changes in Q1, specifically we tactically closed our longstanding China bearish view, given 30%+ drawdo
All into Account: ‘Rates vol views amid increased policy uncertainty’ with Ipek Ozil, US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategist
Speakers:
Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy
Ipek Ozil, US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategist
Powell’s recent comments represent a strong reversal from the dovishness from March, so policy uncertainty remains as elevated as ever. In response to strong CPI data this week, the options markets are implying a significant weight on a hike by year-end, leaving rate-cut scenari
Equity Strategy - Q1 Preview: beats on paper, but the market might not reward them; Eurozone turning up vs the US
Speaker: Mislav, Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
Q1 reporting season is upon us. As is typical, consensus projections have been moving materially lower over the past months. For S&P500, IBES is now calling for 3% yoy EPS growth, which is down from 10-12% projections seen last summer. In a break from recent norms, though, the activity momentum firmed up during the quarter, as seen
All into Account: ‘Post-CPI view on US Fixed Income and Gold’ with Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy and Greg Shearer, Head of Metals Research
A hot CPI print following the recent strong jobs print has put ‘high for long’ back in focus, challenging the soft landing narrative. We discuss with Phoebe what these ‘bumps in the road’ mean our views on TIPS, breakevens, and duration generally. As for Gold, Greg dissects the reasons for the recent rally and reviews whether the rate cutting cycle is going to be as bullish for Gold as it was hist
Equity Strategy - Bond yields move from here? Utilities weakness has likely gone too far; Real Estate is of interest, too
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
With respect to bond yields’ direction, our call last October was to go long duration, that bond yields have likely peaked. After the ytd bounceback, we think that yields will resume moving lower. Our FI team forecasts that US and German 10-year yields will be below current on 3-, 6- and 9-month horizons. We fundamentally agree with this
Equity Strategy: April Chartbook
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
In terms of leadership, US and Japan are ahead of other markets ytd, Growth is outperforming Value and large caps are again beating small, in all key regions. We continue to believe that this style of leadership will broadly stay the case for a while longer, until there is a break, or a reset, in the cycle. For Value, commodities, low Qu
Cross Asset Strategy: ‘Corporates vs MBS’ with Nathaniel Rosenbaum, HG Credit Strategist and Nicholas Maciunas, Head of Agency MBS Research
Using positioning as a guide, investors have been expressing the opinion that Mortgages are cheap relative to Corporates, but the excess returns have gone the other way, with Corporates outperforming by ~1% in terms of excess return YTD. Looking ahead, Corporates can still outperform MBS in a range-bound rate environment with little economic growth risk while high-coupon MBS, with better yields du
All into Account: ‘Cross Asset Strategy: ‘Japan Cross Asset post BoJ’
Thomas Salopek speaks with Rie Nishihara, Head of Japan Equity Strategist, Takafumi Yamawaki, Head of Japan Fixed Income Research, and Ikue Saito, Currency Strategist.
Speakers:
Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy
Rie Nishihara, Head of Japan Equity Strategist
Takafumi Yamawaki, Head of Japan Fixed Income Research
Ikue Saito, Currency Strategist
This podcast was recorded on March 2
Equity Strategy: Equity P/E multiples in historical context - earnings vs bond yield spread is now below 2007 levels
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
The bulk of the equity performance so far this year, and indeed in the past 18 months, was driven by multiple expansion. Globally, 12m forward earnings are up only 7% from the lows, in contrast to nearly 30% P/E upmove. 2024 EPS projections are again down small in the US ytd, and are more meaningfully lower in Europe. At the same time, b
All into Account: The state of global gender balance 2024
In this podcast Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research is joined by Sam Saperstein, Head of Women on The Move across the entire JPMorgan Chase platform to discuss the work J.P. Morgan Chase is doing on expanding women-owned businesses, bridging the funding gap for women founders and how we are promoting women and girls’ financial health.
Speakers
Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research
Samantha Saper
Equity Strategy: Closing the OW US vs Eurozone trade
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
We have cut Eurozone to UW vs the US in early May of 2023, and had a preference for the US since. We are now closing the US over Eurozone OW, for the following reasons: 1. Eurozone has lagged in the past few quarters, losing 14% relative since May, and had relative outflows - in 41 out of the past 52 wks. At 13.3x forward, it is trading
All into Account: ‘Market views on CPI, Megacaps vs Equal Weight S&P, PMI dislocations vs asset classes’ with Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy
A slightly warmish CPI hasn’t moved the needle for us, so we stick with our current view on duration. Despite recently turning neutral on US duration, slowing growth and inflation should produce DM gov’t bond return of ~6.5% assuming our yield targets are realized. Upside risk for growth and inflation may continue to eat in to rate cutting plans. With the Magnificent 7 facing jitters and Equal Wei
Equity Strategy: Where is overvaluation? Not in Mag-7, at least not relatively… it is Cyclicals that appear stretched
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
We favoured Growth over Value style through last year, and again so far ytd, arguing that the Nov-Dec Value rally – such as an outperformance of BKX and of small caps seen at the time – was unlikely to last. There is a clear concern over how sustainable the Mag -7 run is, but we note that this group of stocks is not trading increasingly
Equity Strategy: March Chartbook
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy
So far ytd, US and Japan are ahead of other markets, Growth is outperforming Value and large caps are again beating small in all key regions. We continue to believe that this, ultimately unhealthy, high concentration and narrow leadership is set to stay for a while longer. To buy Value and International stocks one needs to see a reflati
Equity Strategy: Three key drivers of to date resilient corporate profitability to turn weaker
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy
Bulls are to a good extent basing their constructive market call on the premise that corporate profits are set to accelerate, supported by the bottoming out in activity indicators that is now in progress. However, the earnings reality might turn out to be the opposite as we move through the year. In aggregate, corporate profit margins a
Cross Asset Strategy: ‘Bond backup provides good entry for long duration trades’ with Jay Barry, Co-Head of US Rates Strategy and Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy
Yields have move up sharply since the mid-January trough on the back of strong growth and inflation data, although we feel the market may have gone too far, providing an entry point to get long duration, especially now that positioning has neutralized. Jay and Jason join today to discuss the fundamental and technical picture for US Fixed Income.
Speakers:
Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strate
Equity Strategy - Reiterate the UW on Banks
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
One of the sector calls where we face the most pushback from investors is our UW on Banks, entered in Q4. Until Q4, Banks had outperformed for three years in a row, driven by better EPS momentum and ultimately by rising bond yields. We have downgraded the sector as we think this phase is over. US 10-year moved from 0.5% in 2020 to 5% las
Equity Strategy: Japan stays key OW in regional allocation; In a European context, one should consider UK
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy
From a global equity perspective, we had upgraded Japan to OW in Dec ’22. While we still think that USD is likely to be stronger from here, it might not be crucial to hedge JPY anymore, as the interest rate differential between the US and Japan looks set to start converging this year. For the continued bullish view on Japan, we reiterat
Equity Strategy: Feb Chartbook - Reiterate that long duration trade is to consolidate; USD could be bottoming out; Stay long Growth vs Value, US over Eurozone, OW Japan, cautious on China
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA
So far this year, US is ahead of International, Growth is outperforming Value, large caps are again beating small - Russell2000 is outright down on the year 3%, and China continued struggling. We believe that this, ultimately unhealthy, high concentration and narrow leadership is set to continue until something breaks. To buy Value, beta and International stocks, one n
All into Account: Technical Strategy
Jason Hunter discusses the short-term technical setups or US Treasuries and equities following the Jan FOMC meeting. He also highlights the key resistance on Shanghai Composite, after the failed bounce leaves that market in a bear trend and vulnerable to further downside.
Speakers:
Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 1 February 2024.
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All into Account: ‘Will a Chinese Equity bounce blunt the Japanese Equity rally?’ with Wendy Liu, Chief Asia and China Equity Strategist and Rie Nishihara, Chief Japan Equity Strategist
We’ve seen a three-month period of underperformance for Chinese stocks and outperformance for Japanese stocks. Our positioning indicators based on futures and cross-border flows hint at flows from China to Japan. The recent China stimulus points to better days ahead for Chinese equities, and the worry was money flowing back from Japan would blunt the Japanese equity rally. Overall, we downplay the
Equity Strategy: What is needed for Eurozone to start outperforming again? We stay OW Growth vs Value
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy
The last positive spell for Eurozone was between Sept ’22 and May ’23, when it outperformed S&P500 by as much as 32%, in USD terms. We cut Eurozone to UW in early May of last year, and the question is what can help Eurozone to deliver another leg of outperformance. It certainly screens cheap vs the US, at a 15% greater discount than
All Into Account: ‘Inflation’s impact on EM Stocks’ with Pedro Martins, Chief EM Equity strategist and David Aserkoff, Head of CEEMEA Equity Strategy
Speakers:
Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy
Pedro Martins, Chief EM Equity strategist
David Aserkoff, Head of CEEMEA Equity Strategy
This podcast was recorded on January 25, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4609169-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/c
All into Account: ‘Time to be more negative on HG spreads after the strong rally’ with Eric Beinstein, Head of US Credit Strategy
HG bond spreads at 110bp are just 2bp wide to the post-GFC tightest level, so Eric joins to shed some light on why spreads are so tight. While our views haven’t materially changed, the market moves have put us well though our YE spread forecast of 125bp, so we consider which catalysts can trigger widening. A disappointing earnings season may prove to be the near-term test for HG, which we see as p
Equity Strategy: Q4 Preview - the downtrend in earnings momentum is not changing
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy
For Q4 results, the activity momentum has generally decelerated in the quarter, which calls for a sequential weakness in earnings delivery. The good news is that the hurdle rate has come down aggressively, for S&P500 from 10% to only 2% yoy. Given this, the actual results are likely to yet again beat the much lowered estimates. Th
Equity Strategy: Is the long duration trade done?
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
The question is whether the move lower in bond yields is over for the time being, and can it resume further down the line without a clear bout of activity weakness materializing? We called last October to position for the rollover in bond yields, but post the sharp fall of 100bp in 3 months, a pause is likely. Central banks rate projecti
All into Account: Technical Strategy: The short-term setups for most markets favor further mean reversion after the sharp fourth quarter trends
Jason Hunter discusses some of the more interesting technical setups and signals from his recent publications and ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report.
This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4588098-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/G
Equity Strategy: January Chartbook
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
As of end October ‘23, the average stock in S&P500 was down on the year, with SPW at -5%. A lot has changed, courtesy of the November-December rally, and equity markets are now showing overbought conditions, with sentiment moving into complacent territory. This can be seen in high RSIs, elevated Bull-Bear, VIX near lows, tight credit
All Into Account: 2024 Year Ahead Outlook
Speakers:
Thomas Salopek, Head of Cross Asset Strategy
Marko Kolanovic, Chief Global Markets Strategist
And other speakers from across Global Research
Listen to analysts from across Global Research as they discuss the 2024 outlook across asset classes and regions.
This podcast was recorded on Dec. 11, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clie
Global housing: The great affordability crisis
The global housing market is facing a supply/demand imbalance with divergent prospects across regions, but the housing affordability crisis is a common denominator. In this video and podcast, we discuss current market conditions in the global housing market. Oversupply in China and commercial real estate contrasts with the lack of supply in the US housing market, which is essentially frozen. US ho
Equity Strategy: December Chartbook: long duration stays the key call; Real GDP growth projections at stall speed for much of 2024 do not leave any room for error
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
We look at 3 key drivers for next year: first, falling bond yields. We called in October to position for a long duration trade, on the back of likely finished Fed, continued deceleration in inflation, activity softening, and post a big bond selloff. As the move lower in bond yields gains traction, it is initially seen as a positive for e
Equity Strategy: Year Ahead 2024 – Europe and Cross-Regional Outlook
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
Our key building blocks for 2024 are: first, to enter a long duration trade, as per our last month’s report. After 3 years of an uptrend, with US & German long yields up 400bp, bond yields look set to move lower. That was the case each of the last 8 times post final Fed hike. Second, all key regions are expected by our economists to
All into Account: ‘Overnight trading signals and their use in QIS’
We discuss the message from overnight trading signals and how the impact is manifested in specific timeframes. Professor Whelan from CUHK joins to discuss his own work in this area, while Erik from Research & Jagadish from QIS offer our take on this subject as well as covering the feasibility of implementing these strategies successfully after costs.
This podcast was recorded on November 27, 2
Equity Strategy: Earnings outlook - consensus is implying both a margins and topline reacceleration next year
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
Earnings growth this year is on track for a largely flattish outcome. For next year, consensus is implying a significant pickup, at 10% EPS growth globally. Both topline and margins are expected to improve vs this year. There are risks to this, in our view, especially given that the corporate earnings are at present above historical tren
All into Account: ‘View on EM Fixed Income & EM FX’, with Saad Siddiqui, EM Strategist
We have moved OW EM FX as US yields fell, data stabilized and EM central banks have struck a more cautious tone. At the same time, we remain MW in EM Local Rates and EM Credit. While EM bond yields have also sold off, any retracement is likely to be incomplete and contingent on a renewed dovish pivot by central banks that are clearly cautious for the time being. Instead, we find EM rates attractiv
Equity Strategy: How can Defensives catch a bid?
Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
After a prolonged spell of weakness, at first driven by the inflation and bond yields spike last year, and then this year by macro recovery trade, certain Defensives are starting to trade a bit better of late. We think that Defensives could catch a more sustained bid if: 1. Bond yields could be in the process of peaking out, we reiterate
All into Account: ‘The view on European Banks’ with Mislav Matejka, Head of Global & European Equity Strategy, Kian Abouhossein, European Banks Analyst, Esmail Afsah, European Derivatives Strategist
Mislav, Kian, and Esmail join to discuss our view of European banks, after our recent shift to UW given that the outperformance of the sector may stall assuming bond yields are peaking. We also discuss the bottoms up perspective and how best to implement the views within vol markets.
Speakers:
Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy
Mislav Matejka, Head of Global & European Equit
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