The Truth of the Matter
A weekly analysis of the complex policy issues driving the news, produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Episodes
AI Competition and Security: A discussion with Kemba Walden and Devin Lynch
“We’re in a whole tangled mess…we’ve gotten ourselves into a tangled mess around not just securing our infrastructure, but also around competition for the pieces of our infrastructure.” AI has become a cornerstone of modern defense, economic security, commerce, and more. But without effective cybersecurity strategies, the technology that has helped drive U.S. innovation and productivity could beco
Keeping Our Beaches Clean with the Surfrider Foundation
This summer, millions of Americans will head to the beach to beat the heat. But how clean is the water they're swimming in? At many beaches, especially on the East Coast, water quality is rarely tested for bacteria, pollution, and other health hazards that may be dangerous to both beachgoers and the many species that live in marine habitats. While the importance of clean drinking water is a well-k
NATO’s “Brain-Dead” Summit
“I think what happened here is Europeans made a lot of commitments that they don’t have any intention of fulfilling—at least in the near term—and this is all about appeasing President Trump to keep him engaged with the NATO alliance.” At the recent summit in The Hague, Netherlands, NATO allies agreed to spend a target 5 percent of GDP on defense in a win for Donald Trump, who has repeatedly expres
Did U.S. Strikes Prevent an Iranian Bomb—or Provoke One?
“The word ‘obliteration’ is being used a lot…I think there’s a little more nuance to it.” Intelligence assessments from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran, and the United States have provided competing accounts of the functionality of Fordow, Iran’s critical uranium refinement site, and the Iranian nuclear program as a whole. The intelligence community still has a lot of blanks to fill i
Is Ideology Blinding Iran to Reality?
“They didn’t understand the essence of Israel, and they are now dead.” Are Iran and regional terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah considering the reality of Israel’s military posture and motivations? Iran may have underestimated Israel’s willingness to launch a surprise attack like the one that started the 12-day war, but with a fragile ceasefire in place, it is unclear whether Tehran’s milit
Emergency Podcast: How Degraded is Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Program?
CSIS Missile Threat Program director Tom Karako joins the podcast to assess conflicting reports about the degradation of Iran’s nuclear and missile program and how soon Iran may be able to rebuild.
12-Day War: Now What?
CSIS’s Jon Alterman, a longtime Middle East scholar and geopolitical expert, joins the podcast to discuss potential outcomes from Israel and Iran’s 12-day war and shaky ceasefire. Key question: Does the conflict and ceasefire make the world a safer place and reduce nuclear proliferation, or does it possibly increase nuclear proliferation?
Emergency Podcast: Iran Strikes Back
CSIS Middle East Program Director Mona Yacoubian joins the podcast to discuss Monday’s strike by Iran on Al Udeid Air Base, the largest American military installation in the Middle East and the broader strategic implications of the conflict.
Google's Gopi Kallayil on the AI Revolution
In this cross over episode, Mariana and Andrew are joined by Gopi Kallayil, Google’s Chief Business Strategist for AI, to explore what he calls “the most profound technology ever created by human beings.” Gopi shares how AI’s evolution is reshaping industries while amplifying human cognition and creativity. They discuss the tightrope between AI’s promise and risks, including the need for new “chec
How Might Iran Conflict End?
CSIS’s Norm Roule, a former senior U.S. intelligence officer for the Middle East joins the podcast to discuss how conflict with Iran might end, what regime change could look like, the wider implications for the United States and the region and more.
Israel’s Strategic Objectives and the Future of Warfare
CSIS’s Eliot A. Cohen, former dean of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and former councilor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice joins the podcast to discuss Israel’s strategic objectives, potential regime change in Iran and what Israel’s military operation indicates for the future of warfare.
Israel-Iran: Is Time Running Out?
"This is easily once of the biggest ballistic missile and ballistic missile defense engagements in history, and it is truly momentous in terms of the overall context and the overall posture that Israel is taking." Israel and Iran have been at war since June 13, with each country firing hundreds of ballistic missiles in just a few days. Iran's defense enterprise is severely weakened following Israe
Emergency Podcast: Israeli Strike on Iran
CSIS’ Seth Jones, Emily Harding and Ben Jensen join the podcast to discuss Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leadership and other targets.
Can We Share Spectrum?
"The spectrum is a scarce national resource...it is absolutely a defense priority." Much of the spectrum has been auctioned off for commercial use, sparking a fierce debate on Capitol Hill: How can we balance spectrum use between commercial and national defense needs? While fast telecommunications is crucial to our economy, leaving spectrum space for military radar is also key for U.S. homeland se
What is the End Point of U.S.-China Competition?
“I do believe we’re in a strategic competition. I believe it’s fine to describe it that way analytically. But if it’s a competition that is purely strategic, what’s the goal? What’s the endpoint?” U.S. strategic competition with China is a cornerstone of our Indo-Pacific policy. However, this suggests that the U.S.-China relationship is always a zero-sum game when the reality is much more complica
Russia’s Battlefield Woes
“The stark reality is that the Russians really aren’t doing well on the battlefield, and their economy is also in pretty tough shape.” CSIS experts examined several indicators of Russia’s battlefield performance and found that it has been performing poorly since January 2024. Russia’s rate of advance on some fronts has been as slow as just 50 meters per day—the slowest rate since World War II. It
The Golden Dome and the New Missile Age
“Back in 2015, about $12.8 billion, or about 7.6 percent of DOD’s modernization, went to missile defense of some kind. Today it’s up to $25.5 billion, and 8.2 percent of DOD’s modernization budget.” As hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles become increasingly more common on the battlefield, focusing on the full spectrum of missile threats is crucial, especially as the
Trump’s Middle East Minerals Deal
“The Gulf is an absolutely critical player in critical minerals, because they’re all working on their goal of diversifying away from a reliance on oil…Each of these countries has adopted critical minerals as a central priority for their own economic development agenda, and that mirrors President Trump’s prioritization of minerals.” Minerals collaboration is already growing between the United State
Emergency Podcast: U.S.-China Tariff Pause
“The economic costs were beginning to become much more obvious—not just in terms of the market volatility, but potential shortages, inflation, the rare earths restrictions that the Chinese imposed. Those were going to bite soon.” On May 12, the White House announced a 90-day pause in the trade war between the United States and China and a significant reduction in tariffs following talks in Geneva.
Analyzing Missile Attacks in Ukraine
“Modern war is almost a new missile age.” Missiles have played a crucial role in the Russia-Ukraine war, with Russia beginning to send mass missile salvos at command and control nodes, political centers, and even civilian targets. The CSIS Futures Lab has launched an innovative new project, the Russian Firepower Strike Tracker, that uses AI and data analysis to determine the success of these attac
Trump and the Australian Elections
CSIS’s Charles Edel joins the podcast to discuss the Australian elections and what it means for the Trump administration and the United States.
A Drone and Ground View From Ukraine
CSIS’ Emily Harding joins the podcast to discuss observations from her recent visit to Ukraine including drone warfare, the state of the battlefield, U.S. and European support as well as the mining deal forged by President Trump and President Zelensky.
Debt Matters
CSIS’s Phil Luck joins the podcast to discuss the U.S. national debt, why it matters and what the Trump administration and Congress can do to address it.
Trump’s Panama Canal Policy
CSIS’s Ryan Berg joins the podcast to discuss the U.S. strategic interests in the Panama Canal, competition with China and potential outcomes.
Can Policy Win the AI Race?
"There's some real concern that if U.S. companies back away from selling in China, Chinese companies like Huawei could become dominant in this space and outsell us all over the world, which then hurts our competitiveness." China and the United States have quickly taken the lead in the global AI race, each acting as a hub for innovation in its own hemisphere. Which country comes out on top could be
China Weathers the Storm of U.S. Tariffs
“This is not good for China’s economy, but they have staying power, and I don’t see them backing down.” While the pandemic years were tough on China’s economy, the country has recently recovered financially, recording a 5 percent growth rate last year. China is also becoming increasingly less dependent on exports to the United States and is diversifying investments in Southeast Asia, putting it in
Auto Tariffs Threaten to Drive Up Prices
"The President's 'Liberation Day' really shakes the foundation of the current system in the auto industry...if these tariffs stay on for any length of time, they could lead to a fundamental reordering of the U.S. market." The slate of tariffs recently announced by the White House will likely lead to rising costs for cars in the United States, especially for smaller and lower-priced vehicles. Some
China’s Halt of Critical Minerals
CSIS’s Gracelin Baskaran joins the podcast to discuss China’s halt of critical minerals to the United States. In addition to consumer products, the Pentagon and defense contractors are heavily reliant on magnets and rare earth minerals mined or processed in China. Baskaran discusses the impact of this decision and more.
Rep. Bryan Steil on STABLE Act
“We are in the Golden Age of digital assets.” More Americans than ever are investing in cryptocurrencies and digital assets, keeping the United States dominant in blockchain technologies. However, given market volatility and the decentralized nature of these assets, some lack confidence in dollar-denominated payment stablecoins as a viable investment.
Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) joins the podcast to d
Liberation Day Fallout and What Comes Next
In this special crossover episode with CSIS podcast, The Trade Guys, Bill Reinsch and Scott Miller unpack the latest news about the impacts of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs and how markets, trading partners, and consumers will respond.
Mark Penn Polls and the Future of News
Stagwell CEO and longtime pollster/strategist talks about his latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll findings plus a discussion about the future of news.
South Korea’s Quiet Crisis and Trade with the U.S.
CSIS’ Victor Cha joins the podcast to discuss South Korea’s “Quiet Crisis” of leadership and the vacuum in wake of President Yoon’s impeachment, plus, the impact of President Trump’s tariffs while the ROK seeks to elect its next leader over the next two months.
Reciprocal Tariff Reactions
In this special crossover episode with CSIS podcast, The Trade Guys, Bill Reinsch and Andrew give their first takes on the April 2 tariff announcements from the White House.
Brief: Trump's Tariff Plan
CSIS’s Navin Girishankar joins the podcast to discuss the new world order President Trump has created with his latest tariff announcement.
Drones and AI on the Ukrainian Battlefield
"Ukraine is sort of a laboratory for what the future of warfare across the planet could look like." The war in Ukraine has caused rapid military innovation since Russia's invasion over three years ago, from military-commercial integration to collaboration with the civil sector to the production of cheap, small attritable drones. But most of all, Ukraine's military is at the forefront of waging AI-
Brief: What to Expect from Tariffs
In this special episode of The Truth of the Matter, Andrew is joined by CSIS's Philip Luck, director of the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, to discuss the new tariffs set to take effect on April 2 and their impact on Americans and the global economy.
China Cracks Down on Journalism
“If you’re a reporter in Beijing right now, you have to assume that the Chinese government knows every source you’re meeting with, that they know every interview you’re going to do.” When Jane Perlez worked as the New York Times bureau chief in Beijing, she supervised 15 journalists. Now, the Times has only two journalists permanently based in China—and only 20 American journalists remain in the c
Hidden Depths: Water as a Resource and a Weapon
Water is essential to global society, for everything from drinking and growing food to producing energy and cultural practices. 40 percent of the world’s workforce works in sectors that rely on water, and water counts for $58 trillion in global economic output each year.
But while the industrialized world can take water access for granted, water resources around the world are increasingly under s
Russia's Shadow War Against the West
Russia poses several types of threats to Western powers. In the conventional sphere, the invasion of Ukraine is a direct threat to European countries. But below the threshold of conventional war, Russia's military intelligence directorate is also carrying out "active measures," an irregular warfare campaign of sabotage and subversion against Western countries that includes the use of explosive and
Trump’s Muscular Middle East Policy
Former CIA Middle East expert Norman Roule joins the podcast to discuss President Trump’s muscular approach to the Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza.
Securing Full Stack U.S. Leadership in AI
“While AI is digital in nature, the binding constraint is physical.” While many think of the race for AI dominance as who can develop the best model, that’s only one piece of the puzzle. Frontier models, data centers, leading-edge chips, energy sources, and digital networks all form the full stack of AI leadership—and any one of them could be a point of failure. CSIS’s Navin Girishankar, president
Measles Outbreak Implications
The United States is experiencing the worst measles outbreak in 30 years and the highest rate of contraction in the past six years after nearly eradicating the disease. Cases have surged in communities with low immunization coverage, raising concerns about further transmission. Hospitals are reporting an increase in severe cases, particularly among young children and immunocompromised individuals.
European Divorce
Following meetings with European diplomats in Brussels and Paris, CSIS’s Max Bergmann joins the podcast to discuss a possible United States divorce from our allies in Europe. As geopolitical tensions rise and Washington shifts its strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific, European leaders question the long-term reliability of U.S. commitments to NATO and regional security. Economic disputes, defens
Intelligence and Subversion in Ukraine
CSIS’s Seth Jones, director of the CSIS Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss the impact of stopping U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine, whether European countries can fill the gap, and how this could affect peace negotiations. They also unpack the fallout from last week’s dramatic Trump-Zelensky meeting and how it could impact the chances of the minerals deal or a peac
Stepping Up on Spectrum
Matthew Pearl, director of the CSIS Strategic Technologies Program, joins the podcast to discuss all things spectrum, including his recent testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee on spectrum policy, how spectrum impacts our national security, actions that Congress and the administration can take to restore U.S spectrum leadership, spectrum’s impact on AI innovat
Transatlantic Tensions at the Munich Security Conference
CSIS’s Steve Morrison and Caitlin Welsh join the podcast to discuss the fallout from Vice President JD Vance's controversial speech at the Munich Security Conference. European leaders, particularly in Germany, were outraged by his criticism of the far-right party AfD and his refusal to meet with Chancellor Scholz. They also dive into the broader implications for NATO, the Transatlantic Alliance, a
Ukraine Minerals Deal Explained
CSIS’s Gracelin Baskaran, Director of the Critical Minerals and Security Program, joins the podcast to break down the recent U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal and its implications for global resource security. They discuss why Ukraine agreed to the deal without security guarantees, the risks this poses for private investment, and the broader geopolitical stakes. Baskaran also draws comparisons to China's
Protecting the Backbone of the Internet
CSIS’s Erin Murphy, deputy director of the CSIS Chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics, joins the podcast to discuss why subsea cables are so important to global security, the global actors most likely to sabotage these cables, how they play into great power competition with China, and policy recommendations to mitigate these threats.
Tumultuous Times in Europe
CSIS’s Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, joins the podcast to discuss the current state of European security, the potential for a U.S.-Europe tech war, how Ukraine negotiations might evolve, and more.
Read or listen to Max Bergmann’s new report, The Transatlantic Alliance in the Age of Trump: The Coming Collisions, here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/transatla
Responding to the LA Wildfires
Ann Lee, co-founder and CEO of Community Organized Relief Effort (CORE Response), joins the podcast to discuss California’s risk of wildfires, CORE’s work to support those impacted by the fires, and how we can learn from relief efforts from past natural disasters to build resilience.
Tariffs and More Tariffs
Philip Luck, director of the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, joins the podcast to discuss the new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, their potential impact on industry and consumers, and other ways to address China's impact on the global economy.
What's Happening to USAID?
Noam Unger, director of the CSIS Sustainable Development and Resilience Initiative, joins the podcast to discuss the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and potential geopolitical or national security impacts that could follow.
Tariff Leverage
CSIS’s economics program director Philip Luck joins the podcast to talk about the Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and how those nations may respond.
Don’t Brush Off Bird Flu
Michaela Simoneau, associate fellow for global health security at CSIS, joins the podcast to discuss the recent outbreak of bird flu in the United States, the red flags that researchers watch for to determine whether a disease could become a pandemic, and the tools available to stop the spread of the virus.
DeepSeek Deep Dive
In this crossover episode with AI Policy Podcast, Andrew and Greg discuss the origins of Chinese AI Company DeepSeek (0:55), the release of its DeepSeek R1 model and what it means for the future of U.S.- China AI competition (3:05), why it prompted such a massive reaction by U.S. policymakers and the U.S. stock market (14:04), and the Trump administration's response (24:03).
Africa Policy in the Second Trump Administration
Catherine Nzuki, associate fellow in the CSIS Africa Program, joins the podcast to discuss the impact of new policies—like U.S. withdrawals from the World Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement—on Africa, how African nations can use great power competition between the United States and China to their advantage, and her new CSIS podcast, The Afropolitan.
Please listen to the African tu
A Rising Barometer for 2025
Paul B. Stares, General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations, joins the podcast to discuss the results of CFR’s 2025 Preventive Priorities Survey, which predicts more serious and more likely conflict contingencies than any other survey in its 17-year history.
Executive Order on AI and Energy Infrastructure - Emergency Podcast 2.0
In this special crossover episode with the AI Policy Podcast, Andrew, Greg, and CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program Director Joseph Majkut discuss the Biden administration's Executive Order on Advancing United States Leadership in Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure. They consider the motivation for this measure and its primary goals (1:07), its reception among AI and hyperscaler co
AI Diffusion Framework - Emergency Podcast
In this crossover episode with the AI Policy Podcast, we break down the release of the Biden administration's Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion. We discuss the rationale for this latest control (0:52), and its reception among major AI and semiconductor firms (8:14), U.S. allies (17:15), and the incoming administration (19:48).
Trudeau’s Dramatic Resignation
Vincent Rigby, former national security and intelligence adviser to Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau and non-resident senior adviser in the CSIS Americas Program, joins the podcast to discuss Trudeau’s announcement of his resignation, why it happened, and what comes next for Canada.
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi on bipartisan efforts to counter China
This podcast episode of The Truth of the Matter features Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, ranking member of the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The discussion covers bipartisan efforts to address U.S.-China competition in technology, economics, and national security, including TikTok's legal challenges, the risks o
House of Huawei: The Secret History of China’s Most Powerful Company
Eva Dou, technology policy reporter at The Washington Post, joins the podcast to discuss her new book, House of Huawei: The Secret History of China’s Most Powerful Company, as well as U.S. suspicion of the company and why it worries policymakers.
Piecing Together What Happened in Syria
CSIS’s Norman Roule, who served for thirty-four years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing significant programs relating to the Middle East, joins the podcast to discuss the actors that enabled the Assad regime to survive for so long, how bureaucratic rot in Russia and Iran enabled Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to move south so quickly, and actions the U.S. can take to support peace in the re
Syria’s House of Cards
CSIS’s Natasha Hall joins the podcast to discuss the rot inside the Assad regime, the country’s new power center and the internal tensions that remain.
Syria: Moment of Maximum Hope
CSIS’s Jon Alterman joins the podcast to discuss the dramatic developments in Syria, the external actors involved, and potential U.S. approaches.
All About the Missiles
CSIS’s director of the Missile Defense Project Tom Karako joins the podcast to talk about missile escalations in the Ukraine Russia war, plus how missiles are critical to the conflicts in the Middle East.
Energy Scramble: Ensuring U.S. Leadership in AI
Joseph Majkut, director of the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program, joins the podcast to discuss the intersection of AI and energy policy, AI’s huge energy requirements, and how to finance infrastructure development to meet these energy needs.
Watch CSIS’s recent event on the intersection of AI and energy policy here.
Predicting AI Policy in the Second Trump Administration
In this episode, we discuss what AI policy might look like under the second Trump administration. We dive into the first Trump administration's achievements (0:50), how the Trump campaign handled AI policy (3:37), and where the new administration might fall on key issue areas like national security (5:59), safety (7:37), export controls (11:27), open-source (14:04), and more.
Navigating National Security in the age of AI
Aspen Strategy Group executive director Anja Manuel joins the podcast to discuss issues surrounding AI and national security, and a new series of original papers and op-eds called “Intelligent Defense: Navigating National Security in the Age of AI.” The papers are authored by Aspen Strategy Group members including: Manuel, Mark Esper, General David Petraeus, David Ignatius, Nick Kristof, Steve Bow
Crossing the Rubicon: North Korea Sends Troops to Russia
In this episode, Andrew Schwartz, Victor Cha, and distinguished guests discuss the Kremlin's motivations, the potential impacts on the battlefield in Ukraine, what North Korea is likely to receive in return, how Beijing may perceive this development, and more.
A “Negative Spiraling Cycle” in Lebanon
Aram Nerguizian, CSIS senior associate and an expert on the Levant, joins the podcast to discuss the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah’s current political and military capabilities, and the impact of the conflict on the Lebanese people.
The National Security Memorandum on AI
In this special episode, Andrew and Gregory C. Allen discuss the National Security Memorandum on AI the Biden administration released on October 24th, its primary audience and main objectives, and what the upcoming U.S. election could mean for its implementation.
The State of Election Security in 2024
Suzanne Spaulding, director of the CSIS Defending Democratic Institutions Project, joins a special crossover episode with CSIS’s Smart Women, Smart Power podcast to discuss election security, the role of election officials, and how to fight disinformation as early voting begins across the nation.
The Peril of American Neglect in the Pacific
Charles Edel, CSIS Senior Adviser and Australia Chair, and Kathryn Paik, Senior Fellow with the CSIS Australia Chair, join the podcast to discuss their new Foreign Affairs article on how China is dominating foreign policy in the Pacific.
Read the article - The Peril of American Neglect in the Pacific
Escalating to War between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran
Seth Jones, President of the CSIS Defense and Security Department and Harold Brown Chair in Strategy, joins the podcast to discuss the data on increasing violence between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran presented in a new CSIS publication.
Latest CSIS analysis on escalating war between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran
Pins and Needles in the Middle East
CSIS's Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, joins the podcast to discuss Iran's missile strikes in Israel, Israel's entry into Lebanon, attacks on Hezbollah, and more as the conflict in the Middle East continues to expand.
Tim Shriver: Need a Lift?
Tim Shriver, head of Special Olympics and host of the new podcast “Need a Lift?,” joins the show to discuss the importance of lifting each other up even as the world becomes more and more polarized.
War in Lebanon
CSIS’s Norman Roule, who served for 34 years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing significant programs relating to the Middle East, joins the podcast to discuss the war between Israel and Hezbollah and its wider implications for the region.
Update: Ukraine and Israel
CSIS’s Eliot Cohen joins the podcast to discuss the latest in Ukraine’s war with Russia and Israel’s war with Hamas.
Navin Girishankar: Economic Security and Technology at CSIS
Navin Girishankar, president of CSIS’s new Economic Security and Technology Department, joins the podcast to discuss his experience working at the Department of Commerce, Bridgewater Associates, and the World Bank, as well as CSIS’s renewed focus on economic statecraft and technology to address 21st-century security threats.
