The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary
Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary with hosts Mike Goodman and Michael Caley.
Episodes
The Premier League has a Manchester City problem and no easy route to solve it
The Liverpool-City match threw this problem into relief. Everyone knows some kind of punishment is coming for Manchester City, and probably an enormous one. But what happens to the 2026-27 season that is now being played under the conditions that will be set in part by that punishment? We discuss the institutional features of the Premier League that put it in this predicament, the impossibility an
Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe, the Ballon d'Or race, and why none of it makes sense
People expect that Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, and Kylian Mbappe are the favorites to win the Ballon d'Or. We go into some depth on what that means: how do you win the Ballon d'Or, who votes on it, and what criteria they are encouraged to follow? We discuss what we might wish the Ballon d'Or would be and who our picks would be, and our best breakdown of a semi-coherent thought process
Emergency Pod: Manchester City and the 114 out of 115 charges
It is reported that the Premier League's indepedent panel has ruled that Manchester City committed 114 breaches of league rules. The Double Pivot has been covering this story for nearly a decade and we do not plan to stop. We explain under what exact legal auspices this investigation and now verdict were issued, why and how the Premier League came to a point where maximal punishments for Man
Does the PL midtable start at third place?
We have tables to sort and Caley has a toy model and some thoughts on regression. It is time to talk about City and Arsenal at the top of the table, why they're the best teams in the league but what concerns the early numbers reveal, and then... Brentford and Brighton. Because it does seem like the Premier League midtable starts at third. Support the show
Is the Meat Wall Cooked? and other early season observations
We take a look at the early season data on set pieces and whether things feel different because they are different, or whether set pieces are still due for a big comeback. And then it's on to Arsenal: are they just the same? Liverpool, United and Chelsea: why aren't they good yet? And whether there's anyone in the Premier League who can take advantage of the early stumbles of some o
The Champions League Top 10
We talk briefly about some of the very best teams in the world and why Barcelona and Real Madrid are currently rated about equally with Arsenal, PSG and Bayern Munich, why City look one step back, and then we work through the more complicated questions at the back of the top 10: Liverpool or Inter Milan? United or Como, Roma, Atletico, or Dortmund?Plus a little bit on why the draw did not benefit
Transfer Roundup Part I: City's Midfield Rebuild, Bruno at Arsenal
Manchester City spent an enormous amount of money on three midfielders. We have already sufficiently raved about Elliot Anderson, but we are nonplussed about Enzo Fernandez, an excellent player whose usage has been notably odd over time and who might not be a 100 million pound player unless that changes. Ayyoub Bouaddi as a signing for the future. And we rave about Bruno Guimaraes at Arsenal. Also
Xabi Alonso's Chelsea Might Be Crazy
Two exceptionally strange opening matches for Chelsea, two back and forth high scoring matches where Chelsea mostly conceded possession with a lead, but both deserved wins, and both featuring a new thing under the sun in a "box and one" buildup structure. We walk through what we've seen so far, whether it is anything or not, how it fits within Xabi Alonso's career and ideas, an
Premier League Week One: Spreadsheets vs Eye Test
Caley didn't watch the games because he was off the grid. Goodman managed to watch despite being in the middle of a move. But as befits the whole deal of this podcast, it isn't so much about how these two methods disagree as piecing together the stories of the matches from the data and the eye test. Talking about Hull City - Manchester United, Manchester City - Bournemouth, Newcastle - L
Premier League Season Preview Draft: Part I
The Double Pivot Premier League season preview draft is back. We draft our top ten. All the big teams are here. Caley cheated and built a toy model and it has some unexpected picks. We discuss why few of these teams have overwhelmed us this summer but we expect a highly competitive top of the table in 26-27. Support the show
Premier League Dominance? Private Equity In Europe? The Uncertain New Football Economy
Why have so many of the top signings this summer been within the Premier League? Why does the Premier League keep winning the Europa and Conference Leagues? The reason is simply that the Premier League has more money and the reason for that is the massive (and reasonably equitably-split) Premier League television contract. We talk through what has changed and when it changed, and how this connects
Infantin-Out? The FIFA private equity scandal and what comes next
Huge FIFA news post World Cup as Gianni Infantino attempted to sell off shares in the World Cup in a very dubious deal, saw it collapse amid stern resistance from UEFA, and is suddenly facing a potential vote of no confidence. Is it possible reform is actually coming to FIFA? What does UEFA actually want? What would a new majority coalition look like? We go into the history of Havelange's and
Yan Diomande and Real Madrid, and Why the Transfer Market Seems Clogged
All the big attacking signings are delayed, and we have a charming metaphor to describe it. What would it mean if Real Madrid finalize the Yan Diomande signing, where will he fit in their system, who will he displace, and will this finally get the transfer market moving again? Plus a little bit on Bradley Barcola. Support the show
World Cup Final Thoughts, or Spain: Pretty Good Team
One more proper World Cup podcast before it's gone. We break down how Spain dominated this match front to the back, the seven minutes where they didn't and how that brief run by Argentina explains what happened in the rest of the match, how often even a great performance like this goes unrewarded, Pedri's game, and more. Support the show
World Cup Semifinals: How Spain Won It, Did England Blow It?
The World Cup semifinals are complete and it's PADDLIN' 2, Our lyin' eyes 0. How Spain controlled the match tactically (and got a little lucky with a penalty), how if at all this makes us reconsider this France side, and then on to Argentina-England. Argentina-England. Hoo boy. The first 60 and final 40 minutes of this match were both journeys, and we break it all down, and ask wher
World Cup Semifinals Preview: France-Spain
The two best teams at this World Cup -- certainly the two teams that have played the best soccer at this World Cup -- square off. We're worried it's going to be pretty bad. Support the show
The USMNT have a bad night in Seattle
The United States came up short in the round of 16, in the sense that they got boatraced by Belgium. We discuss the game, offer Rudi Garcia an apology, talk about what to say about a thoroughly bad game, and discuss the state of the USMNT talent pool and the occasional doubts one hears about player quality. Support the show
Round of 16 Preview, Part 3: Spain-Portugal and USA-Belgium
The Round of 16 preview extravaganza continues with the big matches on July 6. How Portugal's tactical system continues to try and fail to work around Ronaldo's limitations, what we want to see from Spain in this match, the importance of the Spanish fullbacks, and then of course the USMNT preview. How Pochettino will likely approach this match against an opponent that will seek to contro
Bracket Breakdown
The dynamics of the entire bracket, from Argentina's cakewalk to the interesting but different tests for Brazil and England, to Spain's good path and their fitness and tactical issues, a little model breakdown on Colombia, why the draw for African teams means we shouldn't read too much into the results, and more. Support the show
Limited World Cup Drama, Raphinha Out, Tuchelball, and More
The World Cup continues and so we did more podcasting about it. Support the show
World Cup Potpourri: FIFA Victorious, The Ronaldo Problem, Spuruguay and More
There's so much football and we are not happy about recognizing FIFA for it. But we've got what's wrong with Portugal (mostly Ronaldo), what's gone right for Ivory Coast (both players and coaching), Caley explains "Spuruguay," and we try to figure out Belgium. The Henry segment on Ronaldo: https://bsky.app/profile/dreyesceron.bsky.social/post/3moj2hwalms2eSupport the
In Which We Rave About England
England won 4-2 over Croatia, dominated the xG, and generally looked like a real football team and a real World Cup contender. We have some slightly different takes on the first half, we get into questions about the PADDLIN' model and England, and of course Marouane Fellaini is discussed in some depth. Support the show
How to Watch Soccer Like a Nerd
Mike has written a World Cup 2026 update to his classic Grantland piece about how to watch soccer. We discuss expected goals and how to use statistics well and poorly, we talk tactics and "flex back threes" and "five guys" and "rest defense" and how it all goes back to Pep Guardiola at Bayern Munich, and a little bit on the economics of the game and why that explains
USMNT 4, Paraguay 1
A big win for the United States Men's National Team (USMNT, pronounced us-mnt) that validated belief in Mauricio Pochettino and the system he built for these players. We get into why the xG isn't quite as impressive as one might expect, the distinctive tactics you could see in action during the game, and just how far out over skis one might reasonably get after this match. For more on th
Champions League Final, World Cup Model, Podcast Announcements
There is so much to get to this week, and this will be the first of many podcasts. We cover the Champions League final and why we did not have much of a problem with Arsenal's defensive approach, our plans for building a World Cup model and some of the models out there, and the big plans for where these podcasts are going to be published.You can check out all the new... video content at: http
Arsenal Can Point To a Scoreboard Now
Arsenal won the Premier League. They were also the best team in the Premier League by any analytical measure. But they were an unusual best team in the league, tactically and statistically, and we get into the peculiarities of the style that helped get the Gunners over the line. And we talk about what to expect from Arsenal and PSG in the Champions League final. Support the show
Xabi Alonso to Chelsea
Chelsea will reportedly hire Xabi Alonso as their new manager for next season. We discuss how Chelsea got to this point, what they appear to have promised to Xabi and how this may or may not fit within Chelsea's current sports and business model. We also discuss Xabi's impressive managerial record and how his tactical approach might fit Chelsea's talent. Support the show
Meat Wall Apotheosis
Has the moment finally come? With West Ham's disallowed goal in the closing seconds against Arsenal, the football discourse has returned to the question of the new corner kick tactic, which this podcast has somehow managed to name "the meat wall". We discuss what happened in the Arsenal match, but our goal is not to referee the moment over. Our focus is on why this seems likely to d
Double Pivot Mousa Mania 2026 (Teaser)
There is too much to podcast on and we are giving our subscribers a few bonus podcasts. Talking top four in Germany and Italy, recapping the Bayern - PSG second leg, and of course, all the Real Madrid drama.Support the show
Did Manchester United Improve Under Michael Carrick, Really?
Manchester United have had an undoubtedly successful season, qualifying for the Champions League with underlying numbers perfectly in line with that position. But their results shifted markedly when they sacked Ruben Amorim and brought in Michael Carrick. Was this a major driver of their results or a mirage of finishing?We discuss the real tactical changes under Carrick and how they show up in the
PSG and Bayern Play a Good Football Match
That was great. We discuss what made the game so exciting, why it was not a game with enormous expected goals totals, and what that tells us about the tactical approach and quality of play. Plus a Vincent Kompany apology form. Support the show
Manchester City vs Arsenal Match Recap
Somehow, here in 2026, a major title race clash in the Premier League lived up to the billing. We discuss how Arsenal's aggressive defensive approach created an open and exciting match for a long stretch, how City's period of possession dominance in the second half nonetheless also produced some of Arsenal's best scoring chances, and why the final ten minutes were so uninspiring com
Say Something Challenge Completed (including Arsenal)
There are just a few Premier League teams left in the Say Something Challenge and one of them is Arsenal. Why they're obviously the title favorites and why, seriously asking why are they playing football like this? Plus we fight our way through to having something to say about Burnley, Wolves, Brighton and Forest. Support the show
The Origins of the Set Piece Revolution
Caley wrote a newsletter about the origins of the set piece revolution, whether it's all Mikel Arteta's fault, how teams actually score off throw-ins, and why set pieces didn't take over the game earlier. This pod talks through the newsletter and some of our theories of how the set piece side of the game is interacting with larger open play tactical trends. Newsletter link: https://
Poker, Analytics, and the Optimized Online World with Sam Greenwood
We are joined by Sam Greenwood, high-stakes poker player and the writer and publisher of the Punt of the Day newsletter (to which Mike Goodman also contributes), to talk about poker and some questions we've been thinking about in sports and analytics and, well, publishing a podcast and recording a newsletter, about the world of optimizing and making money by clicking buttons on the computer.
Say Something Challenge, Premier League, Part I
We take up a challenge from the discord to say something about even the least interesting teams. This podcast series will take us through the international break and begins with Fulham, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Everton, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Leeds. Support the show
Analytics, Linguistics and LLMs with Leif Weatherby
We are joined by Leif Weatherby, author of Language Machines: Cultural AI and the End of Remainder Humanism, to talk about artificial intelligence: what these new technologies do, but more than that how the fact of their existence can teach us more about how language works. And then we continue down a variety of paths talking sports analytics, optimization, and other topics.https://www.upress.umn.
Champions League Round of 16: Second Legs
Why the "Premier League disaster" narrative doesn't really make sense, plus some capsule summaries of the eight matches and why there was not that much to learn from the second legs. City-Real and Chelsea-PSG matches were over too early, Liverpool and Arsenal held serve at home, Bayern continued walking, why would anyone have expected more than this from Tottenham, and Barcelona-New
Champions League Round of 16 First Leg, Part I
There is so much football to discuss that this podcast could not contain it all and part two will be a subscriber episode. Here we get to the acknowledgement of Tottenham and a much more in-depth discussion of both PSG - Chelsea and Real Madrid - Man City, two matches that were much more similar than the scores and the ensuing narratives might suggest.Support the show
Champions League and Paul the Apostle
We discuss the Round of 16 and why it seems like there are fewer and fewer new matchups in the Champions League knockouts and what might have to be done to address this.And then, it's time for the return of Bible History Corner and, neither a review nor a summary of Jason Staples new book Paul and the Restoration of Israel but a preparation for it with extended background first on the history
Title Race Drama: What's Up With Arsenal?
There have been many dramatic results recently and the title race in the Premier League is indeed on between Arsenal and Manchester City. Nonetheless, the Double Pivot take remains the boring analytics answer that sometimes results happen without new or particularly interesting causes.Support the show
Squad Player or Star Player?
With the Analytics Dead Zone fully underway in league football, we step back, take a question from the mailbag, and play "Squad Player or Star Player?" with James Garner, Joao Pedro and Gabriel Martinelli. Support the show
Biathlon Analytics with the Penalty Loop Podcast
That's right. For the Winter Olympics we have a whole podcast dedicated to biathlon, joined by Jordan and RJ of the Penalty Loop Podcast to teach us all about how to watch biathlon like an expert, understanding the different events as well as the kinds of data and analysis used in biathlon, the players and teams to watch at the Olympics, and we did not skimp on the biathlon drama either. Chec
Set Pieces, Transfers, Private Equity
The Double Pivot has introduced a term into the football vernacular and we talk through the set pieces story, Caley's study, and Jonathan Northcroft's column in the Times. And then we talk transfers including Marc Guehi, Antoine Semenyo and Ademola Lookman, which leads naturally into a discussion of private equity in football. The Northcroft column: https://www.thetimes.com/sport/footbal
The Set Piece Revolution (plus a few CL thoughts)
We had a goofy final day of the Champions League and a few thoughts on Benfica and Real Madrid and the joy of whiparound soccer.And then we get into Caley's new study on The Set Piece Revolution and the evidence that the game-changing insights here are mostly just chucking it into the mixer and crowding the keeper. We disagree(!) about some likely responses and we discuss what is likely to co
Champions League Drama Incoming, Club Revenue Data In
With seven weeks of the Champions League League Phase complete, it is properly all to play for in the chase for qualification to the knockouts and especially in the chase for top eight and a bye into the round of 16. We go through the table and the impossibility of precisely gaming out all the scenarios.Also! The Deloitte Money League data is out and it shows both the current financial dominance o
The Incredible Xabi Alonso Saga Concludes
The attempt to reform Real Madrid concludes, and it is reported that it probably was never really an attempt to reform Real Madrid in the first place. We discuss the distinct highs and lows of Xabi's tenure in Madrid, why we are (relatively!) down on the club from here, what we learned about Alonso as a manager, and what may be next for him. Support the show
Amorin? Amorout!
Ruben Amorim actively got himself sacked by Manchester United. We talk about how we ended up here, why nothing about the process looks well-handled, what's next for United and why United's management structure makes it nearly impossible to predict what's next. On Ratcliffe and Ineos with Ben Walsh: https://www.buzzsprout.com/819853/episodes/16787734-united-ratcliffe-ineos-and-cyclin
Parity Has Come to the Premier League
The long midtable in the Premier League is exceptionally competitive and just plain good. We talk about the underlying economic and game-structural reasons this has happened, and then we get into (most of) the 6th to 14th place clubs—Manchester United, Spurs, Palace, Brighton, Brentford, Newcastle and more—and their chances at making a run for the Champions League. Support the show
Holiday Grab Bag: Semenyo, Real Madrid, Man United
What's going on with Antoine Semenyo's transfer market and what sort of analytics are we using to evaluate him? Has Xabi Alonso saved his job at Real Madrid? And can the boys squeeze three topics into a single podcast? Listen to find out!Support the show
Are Set Pieces Breaking the Premier League?
Set pieces are making up an unprecedently large percentage of Premier League goal-scoring. At the same time, open play goal scoring is down significantly. We work through the data on tactical changes in the Premier League and European football since 2010 and the shockingly quick shift in goal-scoring this season. Is it something that the powers that be will have to intervene to fix in the rules of
Salah Drama
Mohamed Salah decided to make some news this week. We walk through how and why his unload-the-clip statement on the club and the manager happened and what comes next for Liverpool, for the front office and for the manager and players, who still need to figure out a set of tactics that get the most out of their stars, with or without Salah. Support the show
Tony Bloom and the Premier League Sports Gambling "Scandal"
There has been a lawsuit filed against Tony Bloom and his sports gambling syndicate alleging, well, the lawsuit is actually just asking for money. But it is also about how sports gambling syndicates work and specifically how the one owned and run by the owner of Brighton works, and we wanted to talk about that and about Premier League gambling policy. Support the show
Tottenham in Crisis
A hot start on points masked underlying problems, but a blowout loss to Arsenal and what should have been a blowout loss to Chelsea have brought focus back to what seems to be wrong at Tottenham. We break it down. Support the show
The Football Gambling Scandal Rocking Turkey Right Now
It's a huge, wild, and complex story. Referees suspended, players implicated, the third and fourth divisions suspended, criminal investigations into Super Lig clubs and referees. We break down what's going on in Turkey and we ask, is this just the first open reporting of risks to sporting competition that are present across professional football and global sports?Wikipedia and links for
Man City - Liverpool Analytics
City won 3-0. The non-penalty xG in the match was dead even. What does that mean, what are the statistics telling us about this match and about Man City and Liverpool?Support the show
Ballon d'Or! Ballon d'Or!
We kick off the new Double Pivot Ballon d'Or tracker podcast series with a discussion of why we're going to be doing this, tracking both the players who we think will deserve the award and who is more or less likely to win in, and how we think about those problems. And of course we check in on the obvious leaders right now -- Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane -- as well as some p
The Future of College Football, and also Soccer, with Bill Connelly
We talk to Bill Connelly, ESPN staff writer and author of the book Forward Progress, about the American sport that we all agree has the most uncanny resemblance to European and global soccer, college football. We talk NILs and conferences and the transfer portal, and we talk the super league and the socio model and the Bundesliga. What both college football and European soccer eventually become ar
New Premier League Team Ratings
Caley has built a new projection and team rating model so we talk through what it tells us about the Premier League right now. Arsenal's incredible defense, Newcastle's confusing defense, Liverpool's problem defense, Palace's attack, Spurs not looking entirely terrible, Sunderland looking strong, and more. Support the show
2025 Worst Contracts Draft, Part I
We are joined by two of the Double Pivot's official correspondents -- Salacious Gossip Correspondent Joel Wertheimer and Financial Shenanigans Correspondent Skanda Amarnath -- for the second annual Premier League worst contracts draft. Support the show
Premier League Table Sorting
It's analytics podcasting time. We are table sorting and talking Arsenal, City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester United. Support the show
Real Madrid and Florian Wirtz
We continue to monitor teams and players that are underperforming our expectations, or, perhaps, overperforming and then suddenly dramatically underperforming our expectations in the case of Real Madrid. What went wrong in the Madrid Derby and what does it tell us about Xabi's new-look Madrid? And after Liverpool's underwhelming early season statistics finally translated into dropped poi
Arsenal, Manchester City, and the Discourse
Ignore the intro, it's a lie.We take up the big Arsenal - Man City match from Sunday and what it tells us about the two clubs and try to intervene in the high-spirited but somewhat misguided discourse that's arisen from the match. Support the show
Are We Concerned? Liverpool and Aston Villa
Villa and Liverpool both have underlying numbers are running well behind expectations after four games, but also their slow starts are reflected very differently in the actual table. We get into what's gone wrong so far on tactical and personnel levels, how much we expect things to bounce back, and how much the real points they've taken affect this analysis.Support the show
Nottingham Forest Drama, USMNT
Nuno Espirito Santo has been sacked by one of the Premier League's more chaotic owners, we talk about that drama and the added factor that Forest hired Ange Postecoglou to replace him, a manager practically his absolute tactical opposite.Plus we talked USMNT a bit. Support the show
Transfer Window Roundup
Most of the headline business on deadline way was as expected, but we found both some unexpected transfers lower down the table to discuss. And we consider what it means that the Premier League, and especially the top of the Premier League, spent so much money this summer. Support the show
Liverpool, City, and Early Thoughts on the Evolution of Premier League Tactics
Liverpool struggled badly against Newcastle while City lost to Spurs, and both matches captured the current tactical meta in different ways. We walk through the history of where the extreme control tactics of contemporary football came from and how clubs are now responding to control with different versions of chaos, pressing, athleticism and directness. Looking back on Pep, Jose, Klopp, Tuchel an
A Very Strange Arsenal Match (with James Benge)
Arsenal got the three points, but their close-fought 1-0 victory over Manchester United felt strange to watch and was a major statistical outlier in a number of ways. We are joined by CBS Sports' James Benge to discuss what he saw from Arsenal in their opening match and what it might mean for the season.Follow James online: https://bsky.app/profile/jamesbenge.bsky.socialAnd read his article o
2025 Premier League Preview, Part I
It's that time again! We go through all 20 Premier League teams, draft our favorites, and talk about why we picked them. Part II of course available at http://patreon.com/doublepivotSupport the show
Is It Possible to Get Promoted to the Premier League and Stay Up?
We talk about strategies for staying in the Premier League as a promoted side, how much harder it's gotten, what approaches are being employed by Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley, and why we think this season one of them breaks the streak. Support the show
Luis Diaz or Rodrygo?
Who do you got?Support the show
2025 Euros with Sophie Lawson
We are joined by Sophie Lawson to discuss the Women's Euros, which were heading into their semifinals as we were recording. How Spain have established themselves as the best in Europe, why Germany have made the semis but still disappointed so far, how England have shown fight but not yet the quality of ball that they need, and how Italy are just Italy-ing super hard. Follow Sophie on the vari
Double Pivot Summer Teaser
Talking about all the agreeable soccer analytics you can listen to if you join at https://www.patreon.com/c/doublepivotAnd if you do, here's how to join the Discordhttps://support.patreon.com/hc/en-us/articles/212052266-Getting-Discord-accessSupport the show
Morgan Gibbs-White to Tottenham
The deal is still held up in contractual, semi-legal limbo, but we talk about Gibbs-White and analyzing players based on per-90 and per-touch metrics, and whether this is a risk worth taking for Tottenham. Support the show
Tillman, USMNT, Williams, Barca
Summer means transfer talk but also maybe a teensy bit of international football. We discuss Malik Tillman to Bayer Leverkusen as well as Malik Tillman within the context of the USMNT. And we talk about Nico Williams to Barcelona, why it hasn't gone through yet, and what the plan is for him at Barca. Support the show
Chelsea Summer, Business
Chelsea has not yet completed most of the many transactions they're reported to be working on, but certainly it looks like another summer for churn. And our question is, why.Support the show
Private Equity and Football (Soccer?) with George Pearkes
With Crystal Palace in danger of missing out on Europe due to their ownership situation, and Chelsea being, you know, the way that they are, we felt it was time to talk to an actual expert about what private equity is and what is new about private equity ownership in sports. So we asked George Pearkes, all-around finance knower on social media and professionally Global Macro Strategist for Bespoke
Thomas Frank
Tottenham are hiring Brentford's manager to replace Ange Postecoglou. Frank has been adaptable in his career with a few consistent tendencies, and we've got some takes. Support the show
Man City Summer, First Takes
Manchester City appear to be moving in the June window, with transfers for Rayan Cherki and Rayan Ait Nouri advancing, rumors around Tijjani Reijnders and Tino Livramento hanging around, and we look at a very strange season and what all of this might mean. Support the show
Premier League Team of the Season Draft
We're playing team of the season but with a twist. We each have to draft a separate, reasonably coherent XI of the players who were the best and the most productive in the Premier League in the last season. Did we pick your favorite players? Did we terribly disrespect your team? Check it out.Support the show
