Bet The Process
Jeff Ma and Rufus Peabody discuss sports betting, sharing insights and analysis on various games and strategies.
Episodes
Prediction Markets with John Shilling | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, John Shilling aka Golden Pants joins to talk about his journey and current operations in prediction markets, including the competitive relationship between Kalshi, Novig, and Polymarket.
MLB Playoffs with Ben Clemens + CEO of Novig Jacob Fortinsky | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, FanGraphs writer Ben Clemens joins to discuss MLB playoff predictions, but first, Jeff has an apology for Rufus, and Novig CEO Jacob Fortinksy chats the company's rapid growth in the prediction market space.
Early NFL Season Insights with Kevin Clark | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, good friend Kevin Clark is back to talk early NFL season insights, including which teams have a competitive edge, the shift away from pre-snap chess matches, and Kevin's coaching hierarchy.
Jeff and Rufus Chat NFL + Other Topics | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus go guest-less and chat a range of topics, including personal development, some NFL betting strategies, and Rufus' trading business.
Kicking Off the NFL Season with Kevin Cole | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Kevin Cole is back to talk all things NFL. Topics include the Patriots' potential Super Bowl hangover effects. coaching impacts, defense becoming more important in models due to reduced quarterback variance, and potential overreactions to Week 1 performances.
Fantasy Football Time with JJ Zachariason | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, JJ Zachariason dives into Fantasy Football, including the current state of the game, strategies for approaching drafts, and exploiting market assumptions.
College Football is Back with Bill Connelly | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, good friend Bill Connelly joins to discuss college football predictions and analysis ahead of week one.
Mastering Markets as a Non-Ball Knower with Andrew Courtney | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Andrew Courtney shares his approach to trading in prediction markets by focusing on fundamental principles rather than sports knowledge, which was the topic of his recent talk at BetBash.
Cleat Street Founder Dan Rubin | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus recap BetBash, some golf betting, and Rufus' dating life, then welcome Cleat Street Founder & CEO Dan Rubin to talk his company's pivot from sports betting to prediction market.
BetBash with Henry Kerins | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff chats with Rufus and Henry Kerins of Novig, who are in Vegas this weekend for BetBash. Topics discussed include Novig's national launch, the role of bookies in the evolving gambling landscape, and the recent Red Sox/Orioles trade.
Parker McLachlin, The Short Game Chef | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, golf coach and former PGA Pro Parker McLachlin joins to discuss golf psychology, a 5-year golf major draft, and some improvement tips for your short game.
The Open Championship with Justin Ray | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus interview Justin Ray, a golf analytics expert who has worked with U.S. teams in the Ryder Cup and Solheim Cup competitions.
Next Steps for U.S. Soccer with MLS Exec Brian Bilello | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff welcomes his friend from MIT and current president of MLS team the New England Revolution, Brian Bilello. Topics include American soccer's evolution and future prospects, the USMNT's loss to Belgium, and the challenges of developing world class players in the US.
Bill Connelly Talks the Other Football | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Bill Connelly returns to discuss the other type of football - the World Cup. Topics include home field advantage in Mexico City, Ronaldo and Mbappe's performances, and predictions for final four + tournament winner.
U.S. Open Recap + World Cup Betting | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus go guest-less and recap the U.S. Open, share some thoughts on golf's future, and then get into some World Cup betting insights.
U.S. Open with Joseph LaMagna | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Joseph LaMagna of Fried Egg Golf returns to discuss this weekend's U.S. Open. Also, Jeff and Rufus chat World Cup betting and share their thoughts on the Knicks winning the championship.
World Cup Episode with Ted Knutson | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, good friend, soccer analyst and founder of StatsBomb Ted Knutson joins to chat World Cup. Topics include unique challenges for betting, overrated and underrated teams, weather conditions, and the expanded 48 team format.
Teaching a College Course on Sports Betting with Ron Yurko | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Ron Yurko joins to discuss his role at the Department of Statistics & Data Science at Carnegie Mellon. He teaches a course on sports betting where students place bets on a fake sportsbook, using statistical models and probability theory.
Teaching Youth About Sports Betting with Ferris | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Ferris (@FerrisB_86 on X) joins to discuss his role as a teacher who runs a sports betting educational series for high school students. The discussion gets existential and Rufus dives deep into his psyche.
PGA Championship Recap with Michael Kim | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, pro golfer Michael Kim returns to the pod to discuss his performance at last weekend's PGA Championship. Rufus and Jeff also recap their betting results.
PGA Championship with Andy Lack | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Andy Lack joins and chats with Rufus about the upcoming PGA Championship at Aronimink in Pennsylvania, but first, Jeff and Rufus discuss personal development topics including Enneagram types and horizontal vs vertical relationships.
A Chat with the OG Cade Massey | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Cade Massey returns to discuss recent events, NFL draft strategies, the role of AI in sports analytics, and Jeff and Rufus get into the firing of Alex Cora by the Red Sox.
Baseball Is Back + ABS System with Sean Zerillo | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Sean Zerillo of the Action Network joins to discuss the start of the MLB season and nerd out over the impact of the ABS challenge system.
NBA Analyst Seth Partnow + Masters Recap / LIV Legacy | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff welcomes Seth Partnow, NBA analyst at The Athletic and data scientist at Teamworks, to talk playoffs and his developing of next-generation basketball stats. But first, Rufus and Jeff discuss the Masters and LIV Golf's legacy.
The Masters with Steve Sands of the Golf Channel | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, golf commentator Steve Sands joins to discuss the 2026 Masters Tournament. Topics include Augusta National's unique characteristics, potential winners and dark horse possibilities, and the decision to create a Novig market with the 7 top golfers.
Final Four With Jordan Majewski and Pre-Masters Talk | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus talk Pre-Masters tournament and then welcome back Jordan Majewski to discuss the Final Four matchups.
March Madness Sweet 16 With New Guest Gav | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus welcome Gav, a new guest they met on X/Twitter. A college basketball bettor and analyst from a finance background, Gav shares his analytical approach to handicapping games by combining multiple statistical models, explains his reasoning for specific picks, and covers several key matchups.
Ken Pom Kicks Off March Madness | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, college basketball analytics legend Ken Pomeroy is back to discuss the beginning of March Madness, with insights for making a bracket, upsets, and a surprise sleeper pick.
In-Person With Novig CEO & Founder Jacob Fortinsky | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus sit down with Jacob Fortinksy, founder and CEO of Novig, in their NYC office to discuss where the company is headed and more. Also, Jeff and Rufus recap Sloan and some golf betting.
Shane Battier on NBA Analytics + More | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, the No-Stats All-Star Shane Battier joins to discuss his journey from being a traditional scoring-focused player to embracing analytics in his NBA career, how basketball analytics has evolved over the years, and his transition to business as chief culture advisor for Palmetto Solar.
Jeff Chats With Statsbomb Founder Ted Knutson | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff chats with Ted Knutson - Statsbomb founder, soccer (football) expert, and long time friend. Topics discussed include finding betting edges in football, Ted's current work in women's football team management, and the challenges of balancing fan expectations with long-term strategic improvements.
Super Bowl Recap with the Peabody Brothers | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Tom Peabody joins Jeff and Rufus to recap their Super Bowl experience. Also discussed - upcoming golf plans, this year's Sloan analytics conference, and Jeff's flag football coaching struggles.
The Big Game (aka Super Bowl) with Matthew Davidow | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet The Process, Jeff and Rufus share their thoughts on the Super Bowl, then bring in Matthew Davidow to discuss further. Topics include player performances, prop bets, and modeling approaches with adjustments for game situations.
Trading and More with Kris Abdelmessih
This week on Bet the Process, Kris Abdelmessih joins to discuss the evolution of trading firms and their strategic choices in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the challenges of selling startups and maintaining trading cultures, and today’s market making and prediction markets.
Adam Levitan of Establish The Run
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus welcome Adam Levitan, co-founder of Establish The Run, to discuss his evolution from DFS-focused projections to broader sports betting and prediction markets, as well as some college football recap and NFL analysis and predictions.
Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points Talks NFL Playoffs
This week on Bet the Process, NFL data analyst Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points on Substack) returns to break down the playoffs, recapping wild card weekend and focusing on the remaining games.
NFL Wildcard Weekend with Judah Fortgang | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Judah Fortgang (Throwthedamball on Substack) is back to cover NFL playoff matchups, including offensive/defensive strategies, player performances, and weather impacts.
End of Year with Sports Cheetah Preston Johnson | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus bring on old friend Preston Johnson, the Sports Cheetah, and discuss Crawley Town FC, Preston's journey away from sports gambling, and some college football playoff predictions.
Jeff and Rufus Mailbag Episode | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus answer questions from listeners, with topics including their first times meeting Tony Kornheiser, betting second halves, and reflections on happiness and fulfillment.
John Reeder of the Risk of Ruin Podcast | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, creator and host of the Risk of Ruin podcast John Reeder joins and discusses his journey into advantage play, his analysis of Long-Term Capital Management's failure and the broader implications for modern Wall Street, and reflects on teaching probabilistic thinking to children.
Domer, the Expert in Prediction Markets | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus welcome one of the biggest bettors on Polymarket and recent 60 Minutes interviewee Domer, to share his journey from poker to prediction markets, as well as his strategies and the importance of self-education and taking a balanced approach.
Sports Law with Gabe Feldman | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Tulane professor and sports consultant Gabe Feldman joins to discuss the current state of college sports law, including new regulations around athlete compensation, and the legal status and regulatory challenges around sports betting and prediction markets. Rufus also continues the college football heater and gives more picks.
Jeff and Rufus Go Guest-less and Chat College Football | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus go guest-less and discuss prediction markets, NCAA rule changes, and more college football heater picks.
Rufus Interviews Mark Pattinson aka sprotzbettor | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus discuss the recent MLB pitching scandal and Rufus' issues with mold. Then Rufus interviews Mark Pattinson aka sprotzbettor, about NBA prop betting, integrating quantitative with qualitative data, and if/when AI will destroy sports betting.
NFL and More With Football Data Scientist Tej Seth | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus welcome football data scientist Tej Seth to discuss his insights on prediction markets and political candidates, as well as NFL related topics such as roster construction, coaching decisions, and recent deadline trades.
Jeff Interviews Jay Croucher of NBC Sports | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff interviews Jay Croucher of NBC Sports about his journey from law school to sports betting analyst, the differences between Australian and American betting landscapes, and some NBA and NFL futures markets. Rufus also gives Jeff some college football picks at the very end.
Jeff and Rufus Talk the Latest on Prediction Markets | Sponsored by Novig
On this week's Bet The Process, Rufus and Jeff talk football - both college and pro, while also discussing the latest news on prediction markets.
College Football with Peanut Bettor | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Mike, aka mr_peanutbettor on X, joins to share his career journey and his thoughts on college football, including transfer portals and evaluating coaches over time.
John Shilling aka Golden Pants | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, John Shilling joins to share his journey from online poker to sports betting, as well as discuss market-making strategies and trading approaches. Rufus also gives more college football picks.
Ryder Cup Recap and Sean Zerillo talks MLB Playoffs | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus recap the Ryder Cup, then Sean Zerillo of The Action Network joins to chat baseball betting strategies and playoff picks.
Ryder Cup and Data Golf with Matt Courchene | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Matt Courchene joins to talk about the evolution of Data Golf, as well as insights into the upcoming Ryder Cup. Also, Rufus gives some college football picks.
Kevin Clark Returns To Chat Early Season NFL | Sponsored by Novig
Jeff and Rufus welcome Kevin Clark to nerd out and talk early season NFL reactions - What are some storylines to pay attention to? All that and more on this week's Bet the Process sponsored by Novig, America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up today with code BTP for a first-purchase match up to $100.
NFL Week 1 and Chris Dierkes | Sponsored by Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus introduce Novig, their latest sponsor and America's number 1 sports prediction market. They also breakdown some of the key moments from Week 1 of the NFL, before Rufus sits down for a wide ranging conversation with Chris Dierkes.
The Go-To Guy for NFL Picks - Judah Fortgang | Sponsored by Splash Sports
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus welcome Judah Fortgang back to discuss the upcoming NFL season. Jeff also announces three 7-figure Survivor contests on Splash Sports, and Rufus shares updates to his Massey-Peabody model.
College Football is Back with Bill Connelly
This week on Bet the Process, ESPN's Bill Connelly returns to discuss the beginning of this college football season. He shares his rankings for this year, how he deals with transfers, and the effects of NIL on performance.
Adhi R. on Prediction Markets and CFTC Regulations
This week on Bet the Process, prediction market blogger Adhi R. joins to discuss regulatory challenges and developments in prediction markets, including CFTC regulations and the legal implications of sports betting contracts, and more.
Adhi's Substack can be found at fiftycentdollars.substack.com
LIVE From BetBash 2025
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus come to you live from Circa Las Vegas, at BetBash 2025. They interview each other on a range of topics and take questions from the audience.
Geoff, Jeff, and Rufus Talk Betting and Golf Tournaments
This week on Bet the Process, Geoff Feinberg joins to talk betting strategies and how to fix the FedEx Cup. Jeff and Rufus also preview the Bet the Process Cup at Silverado, and their Bet Bash appearance.
Rufus Chats With Henry Kerins of Novig
This week on Bet the Process, Rufus sits down with Henry Kerins, Executive VP of Trading at Novig. Topics discussed include sports betting and life philosophies, and strategies for bettors on prediction markets and market making.
Tom Haberstroh on the Malik Beasley Investigation
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff brings on Tom Haberstroh to discuss aspects of the Malik Beasley investigation into alleged involvement in gambling on NBA games.
Jeff and Rufus Go Guest-less and Chat Golf
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus go guest-less and chat all things golf.
Big Beautiful Bill's Effects on Gambling with Captain Jack Andrews
This week on Bet the Process, sports betting educator Captain Jack Andrews joins Jeff and Rufus in a discussion about the recent "Big Beautiful" Bill and its important implications on the gambling industry at large.
Jeff and Rufus Mailbag Episode
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus answer questions asked by listeners. Topics include: golf betting strategies, reading habits, and the potential for a class on sports betting.
Ryan French of Monday Q Info
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus recap last's weeks topic of AI in sports betting. Then, Ryan French of Monday Q Info on X/Twitter joins to discuss challenges faced by golfers in qualifying for tournaments, the mini-tour ecosystem, the physical attributes of successful golfers, and more.
Alan Levy, Founder of 4C Predictions
This week on Bet the Process, the founder of 4C Predictions, Alan Levy, shares his platform’s goal of connecting AI prediction models with consumers seeking better decision-making assistance, along with the evolving role of AI in both sports betting and financial markets. Jeff and Rufus also discuss the impact of Data Golf on betting markets.
Jeff Chats With Co-Guests canzhiye & sprotzbettor
With Rufus out for the week, Jeff brings on Twitter/X friends and fellow sports bettors canzhiye and sprotzbettor to chat a range of topics, including NBA prop bets and playoffs, machine learning, and the ethics of exchange-based betting.
Kalshi, the Trade On Anything Platform with Noah Sternig
This week on Bet the Process, Noah Sternig joins to discuss operations at Kalshi, the platform that enables peer-to-peer trading on various events including elections, sports, and commodity prices. Topics include Kalshi's approach to democratizing trading through its API and market-making systems, fee structure, business volume, and potential market impacts.
Pro Golf Analysis and Strategy with Joseph LaMagna | sponsored by Troon
Joseph LaMagna of Fried Egg Golf joins to cover various aspects of golf, including course design, player strategies, and the upcoming Majors.
NBA Bettor Kirk Evans Is Back To Talk Playoffs
This week on Bet the Process, Kirk Evans joins to talk NBA, including team performances, player injuries, and market dynamics. Afterwards, Jeff and Rufus get into their usual golf banter.
Cade Massey Talks NFL Draft + More
This week on Bet the Process, Wharton professor Cade Massey joins Jeff and Rufus in analyzing the NFL draft, including the challenges of assessing a player's coachability, the dangers of overconfidence in decision-making, and using AI chatbots as therapists.
NBA with ESPN Writer Kevin Pelton
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff welcomes ESPN writer Kevin Pelton to discuss the current state of the NBA. Topics include playoff predictions, the potential impact of the shot clock reset and increase in 3-point attempts, and the Luka trade.
Masters, NCAA Calcutta Recap and Mailbag
Jeff and Rufus recap the Masters, recent Calcutta auctions, and answer some Twitter questions. Topics include tariffs, the potential impact of AI on sports betting, Blackjack losses, and predictive factors in golf.
Covering the Masters with Kyle Porter | sponsored by Troon
This week on Bet the Process, golf writer extraordinaire Kyle Porter joins to discuss his reporting of the Masters this year, including the importance of maintaining respect from players, staying objective, and the unique characteristics of the tournament. Also, some probabilistic weather modeling in golf predictions by Rufus, and some picks.
Jordan Majewski and the Final Four
This week on Bet the Process, Jordan Majewski joins to discuss the Final Four, including the impact of NIL on mid-major programs. Also, a too-early analysis of the upcoming Masters, and Rufus shares details of his trip to Japan.
Ken Pom Definitive March Madness Interview
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus bring in their annual March Madness guest, Ken Pomeroy, to discuss the current state of basketball analytics, including team performance and skill levels vs. athleticism. But first, Matthew Davidow shares how he won last year's Splash Sports Survivor Pool, with tips for succeeding this year.
Presented by Splash Sports
Splashsports.com/btp
Rufus and Jeff Recap the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus recap Sloan, including the impact of NBA rule changes, wind patterns in MLB ballparks, and golf betting strategies. They also give their Splash Sports One & Done pick.
PGA Author/Coach Jon Sherman Joins Bet The Process
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus chat golf with Jon Sherman, PGA Tour couch and author of The Four Foundations of Golf, including the importance of mental preparation and emotional control, and the impact of weight and strength training on golf swing speed. They also discuss Sloan conference details for this weekend, and give another Splash Sports pick for this week.
Kostya Medvedovsky, inventor of DARKO, Joins Rufus and Jeff
This week on Bet the Process, the creator of Darko NBA box score projections - Kostya Medvedovsky - joins to discuss its features and methodology, as well as his background. Jeff and Rufus share their Splash Sports pick for this week, and tease their agenda for the upcoming Sloan conference.
Jeff and Rufus Recap All Their Super Bowl Bets
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus do a full Super Bowl recap, including all prop bets they placed, Kansas City’s performance, and better strategies for next time. They also get into some golf and Splash Sports one-and-done picks.
Super Bowl Props With Judah Fortgang
This week on Bet the Process, Judah Fortgang returns to chat all things Super Bowl, including prop bets and Jalen Hurts overs. Jeff and Rufus also announce a new “one and done” contest with sponsor Splash Sports.
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