State of Play
State of Play is a weekly podcast hosted by Will Todman that unpacks the biggest geopolitical developments. Each episode brings together leading regional experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) to explore how global power is shifting, how allies and adversaries are responding, and what it all means for the future of international order. The podcast is produced by Cera Baker.
Episodes
Could Fighting in Ethiopia Spark Regional War in the Horn of Africa?
Fighting has broken out between the Ethiopian government and an alliance of 7 opposition groups. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of backing the rebel alliance, though officials from all three governments have denied this. This week, Aaron Stanley and Dr. Yonas Ashine Demisse discuss how we got to this place, how shifting geopolitics are shaping conflict dynamics, and what the most l
What Did Trump and Xi Agree to at the White House?
The summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could cover a range of issues to potentially include trade, investment, AI, the war with Iran, and Taiwan. The morning after the summit, CSIS’s leading China experts will provide a rapid assessment of its outcomes in a live episode of State of Play on Friday, September 25, at 9:00 AM EDT.
Amb. Edgard Kagan, Dr. Thomas Christensen, Dr. Scott Kennedy,
Is the U.S.-Philippines Alliance Really at a Historic High?
A recent opinion poll found that Filipinos have the most positive view of President Trump of any of the 36 countries surveyed. On the sidelines of the Manila Strategy Forum, Amb. John Negroponte and Greg Poling join Will to assess the strength of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, the drivers of Filipinos' positive attitudes towards the U.S., and what might threaten bilateral ties going forward.
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Will Trump’s Pressure on Canada Break the USMCA?
When faced with President Trump’s economic pressure, most U.S. allies have fallen into line. Canada bucked the trend and stood firm. This week, Will talks with Chris Hernandez-Roy and Diego Marroquin Bitar to discuss if Canada can withstand U.S. pressure, what lies ahead, and what U.S.-Canada tensions mean for the future of free trade in North America.
Christopher Gundermann, Hugh Grant-Chapma
Did Iran Attack U.S. Water Systems?
Cyberattacks targeting water and wastewater utilities have been reported in at least a dozen states across the United States since late July. Although there has been no widespread contamination or immediate threat to public drinking water, it is a serious and apparently coordinated attack. Nikita Shah, Caitlin Welsh, and Lauryn Williams join Will Todman to discuss why U.S. critical infrastructure
Is Cuba Nearing an Inflection Point?
President Trump is ramping up economic pressure on Cuba and has instructed U.S. intelligence agencies to find a new leader who could work with the United States – like Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela. Christopher Hernandez Roy and William LeoGrande join Will to discuss how the Trump administration’s strategy on Cuba is evolving, how Cuban leaders are responding, and if we are nearing an inflection po
How Should the U.S. Counter China in the Pacific?
A Chinese submarine recently launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific, and China has been on the hunt for a security foothold in the region. Meanwhile, the United States has cut assistance and reduced its diplomatic presence in the Pacific. This week, Charles Edel and Kathryn Paik join Will to discuss China’s ambitions in the Pacific, how U.S. interests in the region ar
Was This World Cup More Political?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, trade disputes, and competing national ambitions. But did these politics shape the tournament more than in previous years? Max Bergmann, Victor Cha, and Enoh Ebong join Will to assess the geopolitical dimensions of this year's World Cup in a live episode of State of Play. They examine how host nation diplomacy, soft power
Have Politics Jeopardized the Ebola Response?
The current Ebola outbreak comes after major cuts in humanitarian and health aid and is spreading in a deeply insecure environment. This week, Steve Morrison and Michaela Simoneau of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center join Will to discuss the degree to which politics have hampered the response. They assess the global response to date, the impact of the Trump administration’s policies, and the ch
Was the G7 Summit in France a Success?
The G7 Summit may have defied expectations. President Trump stayed until the end, there were no big bust-ups, and lots of joint policy statements. Victor Cha, Kristi Govella, Phil Luck, and Caitlin Welsh join Will to assess how meaningful the outcomes were, what the summit tells us about the United States’ relationship with its allies, and what the value of the G7 is in the evolving international
Trump's Iran Deal: What Comes Next?
The United States and Iran announced a framework deal that includes a 60-day ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz. CSIS Middle East Program experts Mona Yacoubian, Michael Ratney, Paul Salem, and Susan Ziadeh assess the winners and losers of the deal, what challenges lie ahead, and what it means for the emerging order in the Middle East.
How Should the United States Counter the CRINK Axis?
The recent Xi–Kim summit has further strengthened ties between China and North Korea, with potential implications for the broader dynamics among the CRINK countries and regional security.
Dr. Victor Cha, Igor Khrestin, Joseph Kim, and Dr. Maria Snegovaya will join host Will Todman to discuss CRINK’s key vulnerabilities and examine U.S. policy recommendations for addressing the challenges the gro
Is Ukraine Turning the Tide?
Four years into the war, Ukraine may finally have the upper hand. Will speaks with Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya about their recent trip to Kyiv, Ukraine's key advantages, Russia's challenges, and if the shifting balance of power means the war may finally end soon.
Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya, "War, Inflation, and Putin's Paranoia: has Russian Public Opinion Begun to Shift?" CSIS, May
Is Something Big About to Happen with North Korea?
A flurry of diplomatic activity and a reported visit of Xi Jinping to North Korea has heightened speculation that something is afoot. Victor Cha, Tom Christensen, and Edgard Kagan join Will to discuss what these signals indicate, how relations between North Korea and China are shifting, and what a Trump-Kim meeting could achieve.
Victor Cha and Andy Lim, “Can Sports Diplomacy Open a Door on th
What Can Negotiations Between Lebanon and Israel Achieve?
Under U.S. pressure, Lebanon and Israel recently entered into direct negotiations for the first time in 30 years. This week, Mona Yacoubian and Paul Salem join Will to discuss what each side is hoping to get out of the negotiations, how the talks fit into the broader regional context, and what the prospects for success are.
Paul Salem, “Lebanon and Israel Talks: Empowering Diplomacy Over Open-
What did the Trump-Xi Summit Achieve?
The U.S.-China summit covered trade, investment, the war with Iran, and Taiwan. Edgard Kagan, Scott Kennedy, and Bonny Lin joined Will to discuss how successful the summit was, what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations, and what we should be watching going forward.
Edgard Kagan and Bonny Lin, “Unpacking President Trump’s Visit to China | State of Play,” CSIS, May 15, 2026.
Scott
Is a Cold Peace with North Korea Possible?
North Korea has resisted decades of international denuclearization efforts, including the world’s most crippling sanctions regime. Victor Cha and Sydney Seiler join Will to discuss why U.S. strategy has failed, how the strategic landscape has shifted and increased North Korea's leverage, and what a better strategy would look like.
Victor Cha, “North Korea as It Is: The Case for a Cold Peace,”
Has the Iran War Transformed the Middle East's Future?
The war with Iran has roiled the economies of the Middle East, shattered trust between Iran and Arab Gulf states, challenged security arrangements, and highlighted the region's geopolitical importance. But looking ahead, how much has the war really changed the region's future, and what is likely to remain more constant? Vali Nasr, Michael Ratney, Mona Yacoubian, and Susan Ziadeh joined Will to dis
Will Orban’s Defeat Transform Europe?
Prime minister Victor Orban lost the Hungarian elections after 16 years in power. Péter Magyar’s landslide victory gave him a broad mandate for change and the ability to do so. Donatienne Ruy joins Will to discuss what changes he will make, what it means for Hungary’s relationship with the EU, and if this will be a game changer for Europe.
Donatienne Ruy, “What Happens After Hungary’s Election
Has the Iran war upended U.S.-China negotiations?
President Trump delayed his planned summit with Xi Jinping from March to May due to the war with Iran. Scott Kennedy and Brian Hart join Will to assess the war's impact on the talks, if the war has changed China's negotiating strategy, and if we should expect a different outcome from the May summit as a result of the delay.
Scott Kennedy, "The United States Needs a Coherent China Policy," CSIS
What Are the Hidden Costs of the War with Iran?
Beyond increasing gas prices, the war with Iran has had significant ripple effects for food security, economic security, and humanitarian crises in the Middle East and beyond. Emily Harding, Caitlin Welsh, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will to discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war that are getting less attention, and what can be done to mitigate their worst effects.
Emily Hardin
How did Japan Navigate Trump's Pressure on Iran?
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was the first U.S. ally to visit President Trump in the White House after he called on allies to help with the war on Iran. Nick Szechenyi joins Will to discuss what Takaichi had hoped to achieve in her visit, how she handled Trump's pressure, and the playbook she's developing for U.S. allies.
Kristi Govella and Jane Nakano, "What Are the Implications of the Iran
Are Russia and China Benefitting from the War with Iran?
As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran enters its third week, U.S. attention is focused on the Middle East once again. Both China and Russia may find strategic openings, from higher global energy prices that bolster Moscow’s war economy to new opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence elsewhere. But the conflict also carries costs for both. Instability threatens critical energy supplies to Chin
Is Cuba Next?
President Trump said the Cuban government will fall “pretty soon” and “it may not be a friendly takeover.” Ryan Berg and Carrie Filipetti join Will to discuss President Trump’s goals in Cuba, his range of options, and the risks and benefits of regime change.
“Secretary of State Marco Rubio with John Micklethwait of Bloomberg News,” U.S. Department of State, February 14, 2026.
Ryan Berg et
Would Regime Change Solve the Iran Challenge?
To discuss the risks of regime change in Iran, the lessons to draw from other regime change efforts in the Middle East and beyond, and to outline what the United States can do now to ensure a positive outcome in Iran, Jon Alterman, Daniel Byman, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will Todman on a live episode of State of Play.
Jon Alterman, "Why Decapitation Will Not Solve the United States’ Iran Probl
How are SE Asian States Recalibrating Their U.S. and China Ties Under Trump 2.0?
President Trump's economic strategy in SE Asia faces new questions after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs. Greg Poling and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss how SE Asian states are engaging with the Trump administration and navigating U.S.-China competition in the region.
Japhet Quitzon and Greg Poling, "Lessons from the Manila Strategy Forum," CSIS, February 25, 2026.
Henrietta Lev
Emergency Episode: European Security after the Munich Conference
Max Bergmann shares his key observations about transatlantic relations after attending the Munich Security Conference. He discusses how European leaders reacted to Secretary Rubio’s speech, the U.S. strategy for Europe, and the ongoing challenges of shifting the defense burden from the United States to Europe.
Max Bergmann, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (video) CSIS, Novem
Are we thinking about tech competition with China the right way?
Technological advances are not just about economics, but also power and leverage. Mark Dallas and Ilaria Mazzocco join Will to explore the geopolitical aspect of tech competition. They discuss each state's key technological advantages, what geopolitical power they bring them, and how the United States should compete better.
"Tech Edge: A Living Playbook for America’s Technology Long Game," CSI
Emergency Episode: PM Takaichi's Landslide Victory in Japan
Nick Szechenyi joins Will to analyze the geopolitical consequences of Sanae Takaichi's resounding victory in the February 8 Japanese general elections. They discuss what the prime minister's historic supermajority in the lower house of parliament means for Japan's defense spending, tensions with China, ties with the United States, and Takaichi's broader strategy.
Yuko Nakano and Nicholas Szech
Can middle powers build a new world order as PM Carney says?
At Davos, the Canadian prime minister argued that the rules based system is fading and middle powers must work together to build a new world order. Chris Hernandez-Roy and Kristi Govella join Will to discuss whether or not key U.S. allies like Canada and Japan could do this, what it might look like, and what the risks are.
Mark Carney, "Davos 2026: Special address by Mark Carney, Prime Ministe
How should we combat China's economic coercion?
In a special live episode to mark the launch of a new book on China's weaponization of trade, Will sits down with its main author Dr. Victor Cha and panelists Bethany Allen and Dr. Melanie Hart. They discuss how China's economic strategy is evolving, how it compares with President Trump's own form of economic coercion, and what states and firms can do to push back.
Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, and A
What are CSIS experts' boldest geopolitical predictions in 2026?
After a momentous year of geopolitical shifts, 12 CSIS experts join Will to share what they consider the most significant developments in different parts of the world in 2025. They also share their predictions for what they expect to happen across the world in the year ahead.
"Indo-Pacific Forecast 2026," CSIS, January 14, 2026.
The Donroe Doctrine: What Venezuela Means for China, Russia, and Iran
Nicolas Maduro was a key ally of the so-called CRINK countries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) in Latin America. But President Trump’s actions in Venezuela seemingly support an attempt to alter the balance of power in the Western Hemisphere.
The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a special episode of State of Play on the lessons these states are learning from
Did Trump remake the global order in 2025?
2025 was a transformative year for geopolitics. Victor Cha and the Brookings Institution's Dr. Tom Wright join Will to discuss how the United States' global strategy changed, how its allies and adversaries are responding, and what to watch for in the year ahead.
Thomas Wright, "A Strategy That Ignores the Real Threats," The Atlantic, December 8, 2025.
Victor Cha (ed.), "Navigating Disruptio
Where now for Europe and Ukraine after the NSS?
After a flurry of diplomacy on Ukraine and the release of the new U.S. National Security Strategy, Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya join Will to discuss what we should expect from ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine and how the growing crisis in transatlantic relations might shape the contours of a deal.
Max Bergmann, "The NSS That Could Destroy the NATO Alliance," CSIS, December 5, 2025.
Mar
Did the Saudi & Syrian Trump visits meet expectations?
The visits of the Saudi crown price and the Syrian president to the White House resulted in large investment deals and new defense announcements. Mona Yacoubian and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney join Will to discuss how successful the visits really were, what failed to materialize, and what surprises emerged.
Michael Ratney, “A Crown Prince with a New Set of Priorities,” Ne
Are President Trump's tariffs working?
President Trump has staked much of his economic and foreign policy agendas on his expansive use of tariffs. Navin Girishankar and Phil Luck join Will to discuss what they are intended to achieve, their economic effects, and the geopolitical shifts they are precipitating.
Philip Luck, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Duc Minh Nguyet (Moon) Nguyen, "When a Trade War Becomes a Food Fight," CSIS, October 2
Was President Trump's Asia trip a success?
After a whirlwind trip through Asia, President Trump touted big economic deals, a peace treaty, and a successful meeting with Xi Jinping. Victor Cha and Brian Hart join Will to discuss if the trip met expectations, what surprises emerged, and what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations.
Will U.S.-China tensions dominate the ASEAN summit?
As Southeast Asian leaders prepare to discuss regional security and economic cooperation at the ASEAN Summit, President Trump's potential presence raises questions about the future of U.S. engagement in the region. Greg Poling and Henrietta Levin join guest host Catherine Nzuki to assess what’s at stake for Southeast Asia and whether U.S.–China tensions will overshadow the summit.
Gregory Poli
Is Gaza pushing international institutions to crisis or renewal?
After nearly two years of conflict in Gaza, Caitlin Welsh and Mona Yacoubian join Will to discuss whether the war has prompted an irreversible break in the effectiveness of international institutions or if signs of reform are emerging.
What can U.S. pressure on Venezuela achieve?
Mark Cancian and Ryan Berg join Will to discuss what the U.S. military buildup in the southern Caribbean tells us about changing U.S. priorities, its implications for Venezuela and the wider region, and if U.S. pressure is likely to achieve its aims.
· Mark Cancian and Chris Park, "Going to War with the Cartels: The Military Implications," CSIS, September 8, 2025.
· Ryan Berg
Are U.S. tariffs bringing India and China together?
President Xi and Prime Minister Modi greeted each other warmly at the SCO summit in China last weekend. Rick Rossow and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss how real the China-India rapprochement is, if it’s really because of President Trump’s tariffs, and what it means for the United States.
Are allies or autocrats managing Trump better?
After a busy month of U.S. diplomacy, Victor Cha and Max Bergmann join Will to discuss what East Asian and European allies are learning about summits with President Trump and what patterns are emerging about how President Trump engages with autocrats.
"Statesmen’s Forum: His Excellency Lee Jae Myung, President of the Republic of Korea" CSIS, August 25, 2025.
"Max and Maria on the Alaska and
Are U.S.-Japan relations at a turning point?
This week, Kristi Govella and Nick Szechenyi join Will to discuss if U.S.-Japan relations are shifting in a fundamental way after tariff negotiations, pressure on defense spending, and turbulent Japanese politics.
Kristi Govella, "What the LDP-Komeito Defeat Means for Japanese Foreign Policy," The Diplomat, July 31, 2025.
Nicholas Szechenyi, Yuko Nakano, and Kristi Govella, "Japan’s Upper H
Is Pressure on Indo-Pacific Allies Working?
The Trump administration is placing pressure on allies in the Indo-Pacific, from tariffs and aid cuts to efforts to increase defense spending. Charles Edel and Greg Poling join Will to discuss if the United States' economic and security strategies are working, how allies are responding, and what this means for China's standing in the region.
Charles Edel, Kathryn Paik, and John Auge, "Shifting
China’s World Order: Does BRICS Still Matter?
After President Xi skipped the BRICS summit in Brazil, Ryan Berg and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss if BRICS still matters, if it's part of China’s alternative world order, and other ways China is competing with the U.S. in Latin America and beyond.
How the Israel-Iran War Crossed the Rubicon
This week, Will talks with Mona Yacoubian and Max Bergmann about the consequences of the war between Israel and Iran. They discuss President Trump's negotiating strategy, the lessons other states are taking from the war, and what it reveals about the changing global order.
Mona Yacoubian, "How Will Iran and the Middle East Respond to U.S. Strikes?" CSIS, June 23, 2025.
Max Bergmann, "Americ
What to Expect at the G7 Summit
This week, Will talks with Victor Cha and Max Bergmann about what to expect from the G7 Summit in Canada. They discuss what makes this meeting so unusual, what on the agenda is most important, and what needs to change to make the G7 relevant in the new geopolitical environment.
Introducing State of Play
The world order has been disrupted, and a new international system is emerging. Hosted by Will Todman, State of Play unpacks the biggest geopolitical developments of the week. Every episode brings together CSIS’s leading regional experts to explore how global power is shifting, how allies and adversaries are responding, and what it all means for the future of international order. State of Play is
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