RBC's Markets in Motion
RBC's Markets in Motion is a podcast from RBC Capital Markets hosted by Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy. It offers a fresh perspective and data-driven view on the forces shaping U.S. equity markets. The podcast provides nuanced analysis and insights for investors.
Episodes
Risks In Both Directions Heading Into 3Q26 Reporting Season
The big things you need to know:First, we enter 3Q26 reporting season seeing risks in both directions.Second, the investors we met with in Canada last week were best described as cautiously optimistic, with earnings, midterms, and confusion over recent resiliency in the equity market all top of mind.Third, other things that jump out this week include the recent surge in US performance relative to
3Q26 Global Analyst Survey Results - The Micro Reality
The big things you need to know:First, our analysts are moderately constructive across the globe, though we did detect a bit more optimism outside of the US.Second, Energy, Health Care, and Technology stand out at the global sector level for capturing some of the most optimistic views on all of our main questions.Third, within the US, muted midterm views remain in place at the broader stock market
Silver Lining For Small Cap
The big things you need to know:First, Friday’s weaker than expected jobs report, which was still viewed as healthy by our economists, left us feeling incrementally better about Small Cap.Second, other things that jump out in our updates this week include the stall in stock market optimism among consumers in the latest Conference Board survey, recent deterioration in our earnings yield gap model,
Digging Into Past Drawdowns
The big things you need to know:First, we reviewed the drawdowns in the S&P 500 of 11% or more dating back to 1956, an exercise that helps to clarify why US equities have been resilient recently (in particular, strong earnings and capex dynamics).Second, other things that jump out in our updates include the link between crude oil and 10-year yields, the renewed leadership of the US and mega ca
Lessons From Past Lift Offs
The big things you need to know:First, our review of S&P 500 performance during the Fed hiking cycles that have occurred since the mid 1990s reminded us that the stock market tends to stumble at lift off, with a median initial drop of 9.6% (ex 2022, which was an extreme outlier). This keeps us vigilant for a near-term tier 1/garden variety pullback of 5-10% in the S&P 500.Second, other thi
The Fall Feels
The big things you need to know: • First, with the US summer ending and fall getting underway, we refresh our thoughts on the US equity market outlook in terms of both the near term (where we think risks of a tier 1 / garden-variety pullback have grown) and the longer term (where we remain constructive and reiterate our 12-month S&P 500 price target of 8,150, noting that upside risk exists if
Midterms On Our Mind
The big things you need to know:First, we took a look back at equity market and sector performance in 2H18 and 2H22, around the last two midterm elections. Conditions were choppy with two distinct drawdowns interrupted by a meaningful rally. Consumer Staples and Health Care outperformed during the drawdowns while Financials, Industrials, and Materials outperformed in the rebounds.Second, other thi
The Lowdown From Down Under
The big things you need to know:First, takeaways from last week’s meetings with Australia-based investors, in which our conversations focused on inflation / interest rates / the Fed, the US midterm elections, and the rotation trade.Second, key big-picture themes in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls included a cautiously optimistic tone among companies, consumer descriptions that seemed a litt
Valuation Opportunities Unlocking, Fed Transitions Can Be Tough For Stocks
The big things you need to know:First, valuation opportunity is opening up in the US equity market from a variety of perspectives.Second, in the aftermath of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, we highlight how the stock market tends to experience choppy performance in the first few months under a new Fed Chair.Third, other things that jump out in our updates this week include the return of high EPS quality
Muddy Waters
The big things you need to know:First, the stats for 2Q26 reporting season have continued to come in mixed, arguing for selectivity rather than a leadership rotation, in our view.Second, last week’s earnings commentary from S&P 500 companies reiterated the themes of resiliency and AI tailwinds, but didn’t give us much insight on how to think about recent war developments.Third, we review how w
Mixed EPS Stats, Cautiously Optimistic Commentary
The big things you need to know:The big things you need to know: First, the early stats from 2Q26 reporting season look a little mixed as reporting season kicks into high gear.Second, early earnings commentary from the companies that reported over the past week highlights a cautiously optimistic tone, consumer resiliency, and complicated AI impacts.Third, other things that jumped out in our latest
S&P 500 Sector Recommendation Shuffle
The big things you need to know:First, we are making several changes to our S&P 500 sector views with upgrades to Tech to overweight and Consumer Discretionary to market weight, alongside downgrades of Communication Services to market weight and Utilities to underweight.Second, the expected growth rate for 2Q26 S&P 500 EPS has continued to drift up ahead of reporting season, but trends in
June Survey Results Reveal Optimism, Not Euphoria, Heading Into 2H26
The big things you need to know:First, across the globe our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months and see attractive valuations in the industries they cover.Second, Europe and Canada captured the most optimistic performance outlooks among our four coverage regions, but the US was not far behind.Third, our Canadian and US analysts expressed a favorable view of their own
Mid-Year Outlook Update
The big things you need to know:First, we are lifting our 12-month S&P 500 price target to 8,150 from 7,900. We also think the recent outperformance of non-US developed markets and value could last a bit longer but ultimately expect equity market leadership to return to the US and big cap growth after the recent valuation problem is resolved.Second, we run through our thoughts on the upcoming
Down the Valuation Rabbit Hole
Two big things you need to know:First, forward P/Es have generally been de-frothed, but haven’t looked deeply compelling for the major US indices.Second, the valuation case for the broadening trade still has some room (Small Caps, certain cyclical sectors, non-US developed market equities), but requires close monitoring.
The Time is Now – We Need Your Help
It’s been a year, and it’s only June. We built a framework to help investors navigate the fear and stuck with our constructive longer-term view. If you’ve found our research, and this podcast, helpful, we’d appreciate your vote in the Extel (formerly II) All America Research survey. Voting is open and closes this Friday, June 12th – please cast your vote now. Here is a one-minute video explaining
From Rotation to Derisking
The big things you need to know:First, lingering concerns about interest rates and the Fed flared up on Friday after a surprisingly strong NFP report. We run through our thoughts on why this hit the Nasdaq so hard and note that risk of a tier 1 / garden variety pullback (5-10% from peak) has risen in the near term.Second, other things that jump out include the recent drop in bitcoin, which support
Investment strategy through the ‘up crash’ and beyond
RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This is a special edition of the podcast recorded live from the RBC Global Energy Power and Infrastructure Conference in New York on June 3rd, 2026. Lori teamed up with Callie Simpkins (Managing Director on RBCCM’s Cross Asset
Earnings Sentiment Broadens Out
The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment (the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions) is now improving broadly within the equity market, which we think opens the door for a short-term pause in mega cap Growth leadership within the US and US leadership within global developed markets equities.Second, the Growth/Value trade within Large Cap has turned choppy again, which we think may
Everything in Moderation
The big things you need to know:First, we think the recent pick up in 10-year yields raises the risk of a tier 1 (5-10%) pullback in the S&P 500 in the short-term, but does not alter our longer-term constructive view on the S&P 500.Second, it was business as usual at the RBC Health Care conference last week in terms of company commentary.Third, other things that jump out from our latest up
London Fog
The big things you need to know:First, the investors we met with this past week, in our trip to London and Switzerland, were keen to explore other opportunities in US equities beyond Semis/Tech/AI, but had difficulty envisioning what those were.Second, we highlight continued outperformance of high price momentum in our factor work and what we’re seeing in our valuation work for this part of the ma
Positivity Isn’t Always Naivete
In this special cross over edition (originally recorded for the RBC Capital Markets Macro Minutes podcast), Lori joins Blake Gwinn, Head of RBC Capital Markets US Rates Strategy in a conversation on US equities, US rates, and the Fed.What we discuss:Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine th
Baking in a Two-Speed Economy & EPS Backdrop into Our S&P 500 Forecast
The big things you need to know:First, we have lifted our 12-month-forward S&P 500 price target to 7,900, which represents a 7.7% gain from the May 7th close. In adjusting our forecast, we are focusing on our valuation/EPS model, which does the best job of baking in a two-speed economy and earnings backdrop.Second, on bigger-picture positioning, we continue to prefer Growth over Value, US over
Taking The Stock Market’s Temperature, Takeaways from an Avalanche of Earnings
The big things you need to know:First, US equity market valuations are on the rise, but don’t look topped out yet. We remain constructive on the US equity market in the year ahead, recognizing that the path may not be linear.Second, last week’s earnings reports continued to point to resilient outlooks with a dose of caution fueled by a strong start to the year, highlighted challenges to consumer r
Resilience With a Dose of Caution
The big things you need to know:First, the three things that stuck out to us in our review of earnings calls last week included outlooks that emphasized resiliency but contained a dose of caution, the conversation on Iran war impacts (present and future) getting underway, and descriptions of cautious but stable consumers.Second, with US equities breaking out to a new 2026 high relative to non-US e
April 2026 Global Analyst Survey Results - Constructive, Aside From The War
The big things you need to know:First, our analysts were generally constructive aside from the war.Second, our survey results reiterate the idea that the US is seen as a safety trade due to greater war resiliency, and that Europe does not necessarily present as a better alternative despite the potential for the US to lag if/when war fog clears.Third, we review the most interesting sector tidbits f
Climbing the Wall of Worry
The big things you need to know:First, despite the strong rebound in the US equity market, investor sentiment remained subdued last week. This signals to us that there is room for US equities to run and climb a wall of worry.Second, 1Q26 reporting season got off to a strong start last week, evidenced by a sharp pickup in the percent of companies beating consensus EPS forecasts and reassuring comme
A Fragile, Foggy Bottom
The big things you need to know:First, our 12-month S&P 500 price target remains 7,750, and we assume the index has put in a fragile, foggy bottom.Second, we run through our thoughts on what we’re hoping to learn more about in the upcoming reporting season.Third, other things that jump out include how 2026 EPS growth forecasts for most sectors have been frozen since the start of the war, and t
Thinking Through Tier 2
The big things you need to know:First, the tactical indicators we’ve been tracking to gauge when equity investors’ fears may have gone too far continue to show signs of significant deterioration but are not yet pointing to extreme fear suggesting more downside in stocks remains possible in the near term.Second, other things that jump out include new stress tests on our valuation/EPS model, the lat
This Might Take A Minute
The big things you need to know:First, we review our key takeaways from our review of March company commentary on the Middle East conflict on EPS calls and in conference presentations. What we read adds to our understanding of why the US equity market has been fairly resilient since the Iran strikes, and also leads us to believe that it may simply take more time for the equity community to fully u
Lingering Confidence & Emerging Concerns
The big things you need to know:First, in tandem with the 5% decline in the S&P 500, investor and consumer sentiment have slipped in recent updates as investors have digested the possibility of a longer conflict in Iran and consumers have started to notice higher gas prices.Second, we review our macro takeaways from RBC’s Financial Institutions conference, where we detected echoes of the linge
Beyond the Headlines: Oil, Inflation and Market Risk
This week, we are excited to bring you a special edition of the podcast, a recording of a panel done by Lori Calvasina (Head of US Equity Strategy), Helima Croft (Head of Global Commodity & MENA Research), and Frances Donald (Chief Economist, Royal Bank of Canada) on March 10th, 2026, at the RBC Financials conference in NYC.The team discussed recent events in the Middle East and the implicatio
A Bottom-Up Look At The Bear Case On Iran, US Valuations From Two Perspectives
The big things you need to know:First, we review the results of a survey we conducted of RBC’s equity analysts on the conflict in Iran, which helps explain the resilience we’ve seen in the S&P 500.Second, the valuation and sentiment barometers we’re tracking point to room for further downside in the S&P 500 in the near-term in absolute terms, while our work on US valuations vs. other globa
What We’re Watching on Iran & Stocks Generally
The big things you need to know:We run through five things we’re thinking about regarding recent developments in the Middle East from a stock market perspective.Then, we wrap up with a few things we’re watching in terms of general stats to help us know when the recent risk off mood in markets may have played out.
What We’re Thinking About As Tariffs Move To A New Phase
The big things you need to know:First, the stock market is still experiencing a growth scare, in our view, where it is attempting to stabilize. We see more downside if recession is priced in.Second, we review how the process of resetting EPS expectations has begun, and run though key themes from the early reporters and companies that have presented at conferences since the Rose Garden. Our overarc
A Little More Love For Small Caps
The big things you need to know: First, we review our stance on Small Caps. We had a little more love for them coming into Valentine’s Day weekend due to better fundamentals, but still see challenges that raise the bar for further outperformance (less appealing positioning and valuations, plus continued linkage to evolving views on the Fed). Second, other things that jump out include more evidence
Bouncing Back
The big things you need to know:First, we run through our thoughts on last week’s choppy price action in the S&P 500 and reiterate our 7,750 12-month-forward S&P 500 price target.Second, we update the stats we’re tracking for 4Q25 reporting season, which generally bounced back in our latest update but remain weaker than what we’ve seen in past reporting seasons.
From Sleepy To Slightly Squishy
The big things you need to know:First, reporting season stats have come in “slightly squishy” in our view, suggesting to us that the choppy price action in the S&P 500 of late has been about more than geopolitical concerns.Second, what we read in earnings call transcripts this past week continues to suggest that the macro backdrop is mixed, though we are not seeing any indications of major pro
A Sleepy Start to Earnings, Small Cap P/Es Surge
The big things you need to know:First, the various earnings stats we track point to a sleepy start to reporting season, suggesting to us that geopolitics hasn’t been the only thing contributing to the US equity market’s recent gyrations. These stats also highlight how the mega cap growth trade has seen its dominance on the earnings front erode in some ways, helping fuel the rotation trade to Value
Earnings Season Offers US Equity Investors a Chance to Refocus on the Micro
The big things you need to know:First, our thoughts on earnings heading into 4Q25 reporting season – questions we think need answering and stats we’re watching.Second, other updates include our thoughts on implications in house views on the Fed for our own US equity market outlook, why we think last week’s economic data releases support the strong start to the year in US equities, why we think Sma
The Calendar Turns
The big things you need to know: First, after updating our models for end of year, we are reiterating our 7,750 12-month S&P 500 price target, noting that the signal from our sentiment model deteriorated since our last update in early December while the signal from our GDP model strengthened. Second, a few things that jumped out in our other updates included the recent divergence in the size a
Our Year Ahead US Sector Outlook – Seeking Out Value
The big things you need to know:First, we are upgrading S&P 500 Health Care to overweight from market weight.Second, we are upgrading S&P 500 Communication Services to overweight from market weight.Third, our other S&P 500 recommendations are unchanged. We remain overweight Financials and Materials, underweight Consumer Discretionary, and market weight all other sectors. Among our mark
What The US Equity Market Has Been Thankful For
The big things you need to know:First, several things that US equity markets have been linked to (breadth, bitcoin, private market fears, Fed cut expectations, consumer sentiment) have gotten better in recent updates.Second, a few signals from our year-ahead outlook analysis have shifted over the past week.Third, there have been a few interesting twists and turns in positioning since Thanksgiving
Our Year-Ahead US Equity Market Outlook
The big things you need to know:First, our 12-month-forward price target for the S&P 500 is 7,750, approximately the median and average of five different models that we use, which focus on sentiment, valuation, the appeal of stocks relative to bonds, the economic outlook, and monetary policy.Second, some of the key headwinds / downside risks and tailwinds / upside risks we’re monitoring includ
What We're Watching & What's Working
The big things you need to know:First, with the S&P 500 having finally entered what we consider to be tier 1 / garden-variety-pullback territory on Thursday, we review what we’re watching to help us gauge if / when the pullback has run its course.Second, with old leadership within US equities under pressure, we review which trades are working best right now (or might be starting to work) among
Thoughts on Earnings, Small Caps, and the Shutdown
The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment staged a partial comeback last week as the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500 moved up again slightly vs. the prior week but remained below its August high.Second, we run through the latest big picture takeaways from S&P 500 earnings calls.Third, other things on our mind include our work the valuation profile of h
Latest Earnings Color, More Tricks Than Treats
The big things you need to know:First, the percent of S&P 500 companies beating consensus EPS forecasts remains well above 2Q25 levels despite slipping a little last week. Meanwhile, the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions improved slightly but remains well below the high of the last reporting season.Second, macro commentary in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls remained mixed and varied
Early Learnings From Earnings
The big things you need to know:First, 3Q25 reporting season has gotten off to a strong start on beat rates for the major indices, but we are continuing to see deterioration in the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, the biggest market cap names in those indices, and the rest of both indices when their top weights are excluded – something we continue to see
Thoughts On Week 1 of Reporting Season
The big things you need to know: First, solid commentary from the S&P 500 Financials that reported last week helped get 3Q25 reporting season off to a good start, though it was overshadowed by private credit concerns. Second, we reviewed stock market performance in early 2023 around the regional banking crisis as a starting point for thinking about risks to the broader US equity market. Third,
The Hunt For Red October
The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment has been fading for the broader US equity market and is at a critical juncture for the biggest market cap names and Tech sector within the S&P 500.Second, macro signals were mixed from the S&P 500 companies that reported over the past few weeks.Third, our thoughts on Friday’s weakness in the S&P 500.
3Q25 RBC Analyst Outlook Survey Results
The big things you need to know:First, across all industries and regions, our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months.Second, at the global sector level our analysts have the most positive performance outlooks for REITs, Materials and Financials.Third, our analysts were slightly less optimistic on forward performance for Europe/UK than other regions.Fourth, our analysts
Conversations in the US
The big things you need to know:First, many of the US equity investors we met with last week were frustrated and wary.Second, other things that jump out in our work include a speech by the USTR to the financial community in NYC last week, the recent fade in the broadening trade and Small Cap leadership, the continued easing in earnings sentiment, and expectations around the shutdown’s duration in
Conversations in London
The big things you need to know:First, we review what clients were most interested in talking about on our trip to the UK last week, which included differences between US and UK investor sentiment, valuations, geographical funds flows, and sectors.Second, we recap the macro tidbits we picked up from last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls (where the auto-related names had a negative tone), our take
Watching the Homebuilders, EPS Revisions, Investor Sentiment, Capex, and Flows
The big things you need to know: • First, weakness in Homebuilders doesn’t bode well for the recent outperformance of Small Caps. • Second, we’ve continued to see some slippage in earnings sentiment (the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions) for the S&P 500, which has been driven by companies outside of the biggest market cap names. • Third, bulls picked up sharply in the AAII survey last wee
Very Early Thoughts on 2026
The big thing you need to know:The big thing you need to know: We are introducing preliminary forecasts for the S&P 500 for 2026 of 7,100 (a 2H26 price target) and $297 (full-year 2026 S&P 500 EPS). We think they should be viewed as a very early indication of how our models are tracking at the moment.
Additional Uncertainty
RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market.The big things you need to know:First, we see Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report as having added some additional uncertainty to the US equity market outlook at a time when we’ve been on guard for choppiness for
Wrapping Up The Summer, Tariff Thoughts
The big things you need to know: First, 2Q earnings season wrapped up with downward pressure on 2026 sector EPS forecasts & Small Cap operating margin forecasts. Second, following Friday’s news that the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit had ruled against the reciprocal tariffs, we think corporate uncertainty around tariffs will remain elevated.
Mega Cap Growth Earnings, Small Cap’s Recent Pop, Mixed Vibes To End The Summer
The big things you need to know:First, a better longer-term EPS outlook and more resilient operating margin forecasts help explain the recent outperformance of mega cap growth stocks and growth-oriented sectorsSecond, Small Caps recently saw a brief/mild outperformance pop on mounting Fed cut optimism, but we remain neutral on Small Caps given elevated valuations and below-average consensus GDP ex
Winding Down With No Regrets
The big thing you need to know: First, with reporting season starting to wind down, Health Care and Tech stand out positively on a few of our earnings-related sector stats. Second, we recap what we read in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls. The overall tone improved vs. the prior week, but we still detected plenty of uncertainty as reporting season winds down particularly on demand, the consu
The Real Test is Coming Up
The big thing you need to know:Our overall impression from 2Q25 reporting season is that companies are managing through tariffs fairly well so far, but it’s still too early to assume tariffs won’t generate inflation pressures. We run through four takeaways on what we learned in 2Q25 reporting season last week regarding the overall tone, the state of demand, the consumer, and the timing of tariff i
Fine, But Not Fabulous
The big things you need to know:First, we run through our first impressions from week 1 of 2Q25 reporting season in terms of both the stats and company commentary. Out of the gate, our impression is that it’s been fine but not fabulous.Second, we review what else jumps out to us on our high frequency indicators which includes the underperformance of quality factors, average levels of bullishness o
Updating Our S&P 500 Price Target, Thoughts On Earnings, New Worries
The big things you need to know: First, we are lifting our year-end 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,250, essentially taking our price target back to where it was in mid-March. Second, there is no change to our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $258, which is slightly below consensus. We also review what we’ve learned from the early reporters, which makes us think it’s too early to stop worrying
Mid-Year Market Musings
The big things you need to know:First, we review the bull thesis that we heard in client meetings last week, and our thoughts on where it could go wrong.Second, we review how the rally in equities has been looking a bit overdone on our valuation and EPS modeling, and how we’re also starting to run out of room on one of our sentiment studies.Third, conditions are rather mixed for US equities at the
Mid-Year 2025 Global Analyst Outlook Survey; US Sector Recommendation Changes
Four big things you need to know: First, globally our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months. Second, driven in part by our survey results, we are making six changes to our US sector calls – we dig in a little deeper to the upgrades of Materials, Consumer Staples, and REITs here. Third, while we don’t make recommendations on non-US sectors, we do highlight how Financial
Recapping Our Biggest Call of the Year
For all my Buy-side friends - If you find our research and podcast helpful, we'd appreciate your vote in Portfolio Strategy in this year's Extel/II survey (www.extelinsights.com/voting). Voting is open until Friday, June 27th. Listen to this episode for a recap of our biggest call of the year...Or watch my video message - https://players.brightcove.net/6021289101001/VyvCc9BZx_default/index.html?vi
Solid EPS Stats, Weak Corporate Vibes, Recapping Our Middle East Read Throughs
The big things you need to know:First, solid earnings stats are in place as US equity investors wait for the onset of 2Q25 reporting season.Second, the latest Business Roundtable survey highlighted weaker corporate vibes relative to March, echoing the tone in last week’s earnings call transcripts to some degree for Russell 3000 companies, where cost containment discussions jumped out to us.Third,
The Recent Escalation in the Middle East From a US Equity Lens
The big things you need to know:First, the conflict in the Middle East comes at a complicated time for the US equity market, as our sentiment and seasonality work has been suggesting stock prices could keep moving up, while our valuation/earnings and GDP analysis has been suggesting that the stock market has gotten ahead of itself. We highlight the three potential challenges we see for the US equi
Improved 2026 EPS Outlooks, A Less Favorable Sentiment Set Up, Seasonal Trends
The big things you need to know:First, consensus expectations for 2026 are inching up for S&P 500 EPS in a broad based way, a positive data point for the stock market but a slight one.Second, net bulls on the AAII survey have moved up sharply, and formally entered a less robust forward return environment last week.Third, the seasonal playbook reminds us that in recent years June and July have
Messy Markets and Investor Pickles
RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. In this special edition, Lori is joined by her colleagues Amy Wu Silverman (RBC Derivatives Strategist) and Ben Fisher (RBC Midwest Sales, who works closely with the firm's macro strategists). They discuss the
Tweaking Our Target
The big things you need to know:First, we are modestly revising our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target, taking it up 3% to 5,730 from 5,550. Our valuation and earnings models drive this number.Second, we view sentiment as the main risk to our call. Even though it’s been melting up in recent weeks, our sentiment model (based on AAII net bulls) is still the most constructive one in our price target to
Updating Our 2025 S&P 500 EPS & Valuation Models, The Market's Bad Mood
The big things you need to know:First, the S&P 500 EPS backdrop has stabilized, but we still anticipate further downward revisions for 2025 S&P 500 EPS. After a preliminary model refresh, we are maintaining our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $258, which is below the bottom-up consensus of $265.Second, we’ve updated our S&P 500 valuation model to reflect updated RBC house views on k
A Little Less Conversation About Tariffs
The big things you need to know:First, it was another week of stabilization on the earnings stats we track, helping to support the recent stabilization in equity market pricing.Second, there was a little less conversation about tariffs in last week’s earnings calls, which left some additional room for discussions on the health of the consumer and the impacts of non-tariff policy changes.Third, in
Drinking From A Firehose of Earnings
The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment has stabilized a bit, helping stock prices find some footing for the moment.Second, we run through our thoughts on what we learned from last week’s earnings calls. We think there are two different perspectives at play on the consumer, which may be adding to investor confusion. We exited the week seeing managing tariff impacts as a work in
The Fog of Tariffs
The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment is at an important crossroads, with the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions having fallen to 30%.Second, what we read in S&P 500 earnings call transcripts last week keeps us in the camp that recession is not a foregone conclusion, makes us concerned that any adverse impacts from tariffs may be felt a little later in the year or even n
Our Latest Thoughts on The Tiers of Fear, Earnings Season, and The Growth Trade
The big things you need to know:First, the stock market is still experiencing a growth scare, in our view, where it is attempting to stabilize. We see more downside if recession is priced in.Second, we review how the process of resetting EPS expectations has begun, and run though key themes from the early reporters and companies that have presented at conferences since the Rose Garden. Our overarc
The Most Important Things We've Written About The Past Few Days
The big things you need to know:First, shortly after midnight on Friday morning, we cut our S&P 500 EPS forecast for 2025 to $258 and our YE 2025 price target to 5,550 – the price target cut was something we’d been telegraphing we’d do if the drawdown in the index broke 10% from peak for quite some time, which it did on Thursday.Second, as the stock market has continued to gap down, we’ve cont
Crunch Time For The Consumer
The big things you need to know: The team tackles some of the top questions in consumer-related conversations today, including what their company and industry level interactions and data have been telling them about the current state of the consumer, whether the consumer has been retreating or simply shifting their spend, what's happening in different consumer cohorts, what they think the biggest
The US Equity Market Exhales
The big things you need to know:First, trends in investor vibes were mixed last week, both in our quant work as well as last week’s investor conversations.Second, the median forward P/E for the S&P 500 has fallen sharply but remains well above average. We’ve also not yet seen significant adjustments to consensus EPS forecasts, which seems likely to keep confidence in P/E analysis low for now.T
Walking Through The Math Behind Our Updated S&P 500 Forecasts
The big things you need to know:We’ve lowered our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,200 from 6,600,We’ve lowered our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $264 from $271.Among other adjustments, our new price target and EPS forecast embed the updated views of RBC’s Economics and Rates strategy team which were released last week.We have updated our year-end 2025 bear case for the S&P 500, which
Special Edition - A Conversation On The Equity Market Outlook
RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we bring you a special edition of the podcast, recorded live at the RBC Financial institutions conference on March 5th, 2025. Ben Fisher (US Equity Sales, Midwest & Macro Sales Specialist) moderates a discussion
