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The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners
The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners
Lucas and Luna host a daily show that cuts through fixed-income market noise, covering Treasuries, corporate bonds, and the yield curve with a methodical, data-driven approach. Former bond trader Lucas provides institutional perspective, while macro strategist Luna makes complex concepts accessible. Each episode focuses on a single theme such as ETF liquidity, muni tax implications, or corporate debt restructuring. Listeners gain frameworks to understand bond price action and why moves in two-year notes matter.
Episodes
The 10-Year Yield Is the New Center of Gravity
The 10-year Treasury yield has become the bond market's center of gravity, with the yield curve flattening and steepening in ways that confuse investors. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 10-year matters more than the 2-year or the 30-year, using current data: the 10-year at 4.69 percent, the 2-year at 4.19 percent, and the 30-year at 5.23 percent. They explore how the 10-year influen
Why the 30-Year Yield Stays Above 5 Percent While the Fed Holds Steady
On this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been nagging fixed-income investors all summer: why does the 30-year Treasury yield keep pushing toward 5.3 percent while the Fed's policy rate sits at 3.63 and the 2-year yield is stuck near 4.2? They break down the term premium, the market's view on inflation and fiscal policy, and what it means for the long end.
Why the 10-Year Yield Is the Market's New Center of Gravity
The 10-year Treasury yield has quietly become the bond market's anchor in 2026, even as the 30-year hits headlines above 5 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into why the 10-year matters more now—touching on the 4.65 percent level, the widening 10-year versus 2-year spread, and what it means for mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, and portfolio strategy. They break down the shift in market focus from th
How a Chinese Bond Market Defies the Global Yield Surge
While Treasury yields hover near 4.7 percent for the ten-year and 5.28 for the thirty-year, China's bond market is moving in the opposite direction, offering a rare diversification play for global investors. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the data behind the trend, from the ten-year Chinese government bond yield sitting at a record low to the structural reasons—aging demographics, high s
What the Rising 30-Year Yield Means for Savers and Borrowers
Long-term Treasury yields are climbing again, with the 30-year sitting at 5.31 percent as of mid-August 2026, while the 10-year hovers near 4.72. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the long end higher—from term premium concerns to fiscal deficits—and what it actually means for everyday savers, mortgage borrowers, and retirement portfolios. They cut through the jargon to explain
The 30-Year Yield at 5.25 Percent and the New Bond Math
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest move higher in long-dated Treasury yields, with the 30-year now sitting at 5.25 percent while the 10-year hovers near 4.68 percent. They explain why this steepening curve is not just a Wall Street story, but a signal about inflation expectations, fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve's next move. Using today's live data,
Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is the New Benchmark
On this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the 10-year Treasury yield has emerged as the most-watched bond market signal in 2026. With the 30-year yield at 5.21 percent and the 2-year at 4.15 percent, investors are leaning on the 10-year as the new anchor for everything from mortgages to corporate borrowing. Lucas traces how the 10-year's role shifted after the Fed's ti
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Above 5 Percent and What It Means
In episode 160 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the stubbornly high 30-year Treasury yield, now at 5.26%. While the 10-year has ticked down to 4.63%, the long bond refuses to budge, leaving investors to wonder: is this the new normal? The hosts unpack the drivers—term premium, supply concerns, and the Fed's path—and explain why the long end is sending a different signal than the
Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Stuck Near 3.87 Percent
Lucas and Luna dig into the odd quiet of the 3-month Treasury bill, which is hovering around 3.87 percent even as the Fed Funds rate sits at 3.63 and the rest of the curve shows more movement. They explore what this means for money market funds, the Fed's balance sheet, and why the front end is suddenly the place to watch. With a nod to the inverted curve history and the recent steepening, they co
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Above 5 Percent While the 2-Year Sits at 4.2
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzle that's got fixed-income investors scratching their heads: the 30-year Treasury yield is hovering around 5.27 percent, while the 2-year yield sits at 4.20 percent. That's a steep curve, and it's sending signals about inflation, term premiums, and what the Fed might do next. Using the latest data from August 2026, they explor
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Stuck Near 5 Percent
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why the 30-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly near 5 percent even as the curve steepens and the front end drifts lower. They unpack the structural forces keeping long-term yields elevated: term premium, supply concerns, and the shift in investor positioning. With the 10-year at 4.70 percent and the 2-year at 4.22 percent, the h
Why the Long End Keeps Outperforming the Front End
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising twist in the Treasury market: while the 2-year yield has drifted up to 4.25 percent, the 30-year yield has climbed to 5.25 percent, pushing the yield curve to its steepest since 2022. They unpack the forces behind this divergence—from term premium and supply concerns to the Fed's policy stance and sticky inflation—and
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Stuck Above 5 Percent
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the persistent 30-year Treasury yield above 5 percent, a level that's been frustrating fixed-income investors for weeks. With the 30-year at 5.19 percent and the 10-year at 4.65 percent, the curve is steepening, but long-duration bonds are taking a hit. They discuss the structural forces keeping long yields elevated — from term pr
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Stuck Above 5 Percent
The 30-year Treasury yield has been hovering above 5 percent for weeks, while the 10-year sits at 4.70 and the 2-year at about 3.72. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into why long-term yields aren't falling even as the Fed keeps rates steady and the curve steepens. They break down the role of term premium, structural demand from pension funds and foreign buyers, and how the AI infrastructure bu
Why the 2-Year Yield Is Stuck Above Fed Funds
The 2-year Treasury yield sits at 4.25 percent, a full 62 basis points above the effective fed funds rate of 3.63 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why that gap persists even as markets price in rate cuts. They look at how the front end has become the market's battleground for Fed expectations, why the 3-month yield is drifting lower, and what the recent convergence of 2-year and 5-y
Why Long Bond Yields Stay High as the Curve Steepens
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 30-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly above 5 percent while the 2-year yield sits near 4.25 percent, even as the Federal Reserve holds rates steady. They explore the role of term premium, supply dynamics, and the market's reaction to a weak July jobs report that has traders trimming September hike bets. With the 10-year
What the Copper Price Surge Is Telling Bond Investors
Copper just hit its highest level ever. What does that tell bond investors? In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence between red-hot copper and a Treasury market that's pricing in weak growth. They explore how copper's dual role as a bellwether for global growth and a gauge of inflation expectations creates a puzzle for fixed-income markets. With the 10-year yield at 4.66 percent and
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Had Its Biggest One-Day Drop
On August 4, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.70% to 4.63% in a single day — the sharpest one-day drop in months. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what drove that move, from a surprising Fed Governor's hawkish comments to a quiet shift in the 30-year yield, which remains above 5%. They explain why the yield curve is steepening, what the front end is telling us about rate hike
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Above 5 Percent and What It Means
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a striking market signal: the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.70, widening the long-end spread to levels not seen in years. They explore what this steepening curve says about inflation expectations, fiscal policy, and the Fed's next moves. With the 3-month yield at 3.91 and the Fed fund
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Eclipsing the 10-Year
The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27 percent, its highest level in years, while the 10-year sits at 4.75. That 52-basis-point gap is the widest in over a decade, and it's reshaping how investors think about long-duration risk. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the long end—from term premium and foreign demand to supply concerns and the Fed's balance sheet runoff.
Why the Curve Steepening Is a Real Economic Signal
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack what the recent steepening of the Treasury yield curve actually tells us about the economy in early August 2026. With the 10-year yield at 4.68 percent and the 30-year pushing above 5.2 percent, while the 3-month bill sits at 3.82 percent, the hosts explore whether this is a sign of growth, inflation, or something else. They discuss
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is the New Signal
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising shift in the Treasury market: the 30-year yield has climbed to 5.21 percent, its highest level in over a decade, while the front end stays anchored below 4 percent. They unpack what this 'long-end repricing' means for borrowers, homeowners, and pension funds, and why some investors are starting to see opportunity in lo
Why the Front End Is the New Battleground for Bond Investors
With the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.68 percent and the 2-year at 4.23 percent, the yield curve's front end has become the most talked-about corner of the fixed-income market. But what does 'front end' really mean, and why are investors suddenly obsessing over maturities of two years or less? In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the shifting dynamics at the short end of the curve—wher
Why the 2-Year Yield Stays 60 Basis Points Above Fed Funds
The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.26%, the Fed funds rate is 3.63% – a 63 basis-point gap that's defying rate-cut expectations. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the front-end premium means for the bond market, how it compares to the 10-year spread, and why the market is pricing in a slower easing cycle than the Fed's dot plot suggests. They look at recent yield moves, the role of term prem
Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Finally Breaking Below 4 Percent
For months, the 3-month Treasury bill yield hovered above the federal funds rate, signaling tight liquidity and no imminent rate cuts. But as of July 28, 2026, the 3-month yield has dropped to 3.90% — down from 3.96% a week earlier — narrowing the spread to the fed funds rate to just 27 basis points. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the shift: the Federal Reserve's latest
What the Fed's Three Dissent Votes Mean for Bond Yields
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on July 29, 2026, but three voting members dissented in favor of a hike. Lucas and Luna break down the internal hawks-vs-doves dynamics and what it means for Treasury yields, the yield curve, and bond investors. With the 10-year at 4.65% and the 2-year at 4.31%, they explore why the market is pricing in cuts while the FOMC splits openly. Plus: the ris
Why the Yield Curve Turned Positive and What Happens Next
The 10-year versus 2-year Treasury yield spread has turned positive for the first time in over two years, sitting at 35 basis points as of July 29, 2026. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what this shift means for the economy, drawing on historical patterns from past business cycles. They discuss whether a positive slope signals an impending recession or a soft landing, and examine current da
How Duration Is Becoming Attractive Again in Fixed Income
In Episode 140 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how the yield curve's return to a positive slope is reshaping bond strategies. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.69% and the 2-year at 4.33%, the spread of 34 basis points marks a clear shift from the deeply inverted curve of recent years. They dive into why longer-duration bonds like TLT and IEF have outperformed short-term T-bi
Why TIPS Are Falling Behind Nominal Treasuries in Late July 2026
In late July 2026, inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) are underperforming their nominal counterparts. The TIP ETF dropped 0.5% in five days while the long bond ETF TLT rose 0.1%. Lucas and Luna break down why the breakeven inflation rate is contracting, how real yields are rising faster than nominal yields, and what this means for investors expecting higher inflation. They also explore the role of t
Why 2-Year and 5-Year Treasury Yields Are Converging
The spread between the 2-year and 5-year Treasury yields has collapsed to just 3 basis points, a rare flattening in the front end of the curve. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what this convergence signals about market expectations for the Federal Reserve, how it contrasts with the steep long end, and what it means for fixed-income investors. They tie in the Moody's warning on AI-driven
How Oil Prices Are Repricing Fed Rate Hike Odds
The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.37% as surging oil prices push inflation expectations higher, leading the bond market to price in two quarter-point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve before year-end. Lucas and Luna break down the connection between crude oil's rally and the short end of the yield curve, examine why the 2-year is now yielding 74 basis points above the Fed funds rate, an
How Term Premium Is Driving the Yield Curve Steepening
The yield curve is steepening, but it's not just about Fed rate hikes or recession bets. Lucas and Luna break down term premium—the extra compensation investors now demand for holding long-term Treasuries. With the 10-year yield at 4.71 percent and the 2-year at 4.37 percent, the spread of 36 basis points is widening, but much of that move comes from a revival of term premium after years of negati
Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is 100 Basis Points Above the Fed Funds Rate
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.68% while the Fed funds rate is stuck at 3.63% — a gap of over a full percentage point. In Episode 135, Lucas and Luna break down what's behind that spread: surging oil prices pushing up inflation expectations, a rising term premium driven by AI investment risk and fiscal deficits, and the market pricing in a potential rate hike. They explain why the 10-year is
How Rising Oil Prices Are Reshaping the Treasury Yield Curve
With oil prices surging and odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike rising, the Treasury market is repricing. Lucas and Luna break down how the 10-year yield climbed to 4.71%, the 2-year to 4.37%, and why the yield curve is steepening. They explore the connection between commodity inflation, Fed policy expectations, and what it means for bond investors. This episode uses live data from July 25, 2026,
Why the 10-Year Yield Is Stuck at 4.70 Percent
The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering near 4.70 percent in late July 2026, refusing to break higher or lower despite volatile oil prices and shifting rate expectations. Lucas and Luna examine why the market is stuck — from the Fed's steady hand on the IOER to a global bid for duration that's capping yields. They zero in on the 10-year real yield spread and what it signals about growth expec
How the 10-Year Yield Is Topping 4.70 Percent in July 2026
The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.70 percent as of July 23, 2026, driven by a combination of hawkish Fed expectations, surging oil prices above $100 a barrel, and a steepening yield curve that now shows the 5-year yield leading the move. Lucas and Luna break down what's behind this rapid rise, how it's affecting bond ETFs like TLT and IEF, and what it means for investors watching the 2-ye
How the Corporate Bond Market Is Decoupling From Treasuries
Episode 131 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners. Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising July 2026 development—corporate bond yields are not following Treasuries higher. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.63% and the 30-year above 5.13%, investment-grade and high-yield spreads have actually tightened. Lucas explains why the 'risk-free' anchor is los
Why TIPS Are Beating Nominal Treasuries in July 2026
Episode 130 of The Bond Market Podcast examines why Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are outperforming nominal Treasuries in late July 2026. Lucas and Luna break down the 10-year TIPS yield dropping to 1.25 percent, the breakeven inflation rate climbing to 3.41 percent, and what the 'TIPS spread' reveals about market expectations for Fed policy. They discuss the $42 billion in inflow
How Corporate Bond Arbitrage Is Breaking the Yield Curve
Lucas and Luna examine how the corporate bond market is distorting Treasury yield relationships in July 2026. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.60 percent and investment-grade corporate bonds yielding 106 basis points more, hedge funds are exploiting the spread through credit arbitrage strategies. The hosts explain why this activity is flattening the Treasury curve artificially, how the 5-year Treasu
Why the 5-Year Treasury Is Leading the Curve Steepening
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the 5-year Treasury yield has surged 2.7% in the past week to 4.37%, outpacing gains in the 2-year and 10-year notes. They explore how this 'belly of the curve' move is reshaping the steepening narrative, with the 10-year-2-year spread at 37 basis points and the 30-year yield above 5%. The hosts discuss drivers from supply conc
Why the 5-Year Treasury Yield Is Leading the Curve Steepening
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explain why the 5-year Treasury yield is surging faster than both the 2-year and 10-year, steepening the curve in an unusual way. With the 5-year yield up nearly 3% in the last five days to 4.37%, they explore how Fed policy uncertainty, inflation expectations, and a crowded short trade are driving this specific part of the curve. Drawing
Why the 3-Month Bill Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a persistent anomaly in mid-2026: the 3-month Treasury yield is sitting at 3.85 percent, twenty-two basis points above the effective Fed funds rate of 3.63 percent. They explain why this gap matters for money market funds, the Fed's control of short-term rates, and what it signals about liquidity and bank reserve scar
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5 percent in July 2026, reaching 5.12 percent as of this week. They explore the key drivers: term premium expansion, fiscal deficit concerns, and the Fed's reduced influence at the long end. The hosts discuss how this move diverges from the 2-year yield and what it signals for mortga
Why the 3-Month Yield Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate
The 3-month Treasury yield has been stubbornly sitting above the Fed funds rate for months, and it's not just a technical glitch. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into why short-term rates are breaking from the central bank's target, what it says about liquidity in the repo market, and how the Fed's interest on reserve balances is losing its grip. With the 3-month yield at 3.84% and the Fed fun
How the 2-Year Treasury Yield Became the Real Fed Signal
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how the 2-year Treasury yield has overtaken the Fed funds rate as the market's true compass for monetary policy. With the 2-year yield sitting at 4.16 percent and the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent, the gap is sending a clear message. The hosts break down why bond traders are pricing in a higher terminal rate than the Fed
Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate
It's mid-July 2026 and something strange is happening in short-term debt markets: the 3-month Treasury yield is sitting at 3.84 percent, a full 21 basis points above the effective fed funds rate of 3.63. Typically, the two move in lockstep, but today's gap signals that money market funds are demanding a premium for reasons that go beyond rate expectations. This episode dives into the mechanics — t
How the 10-Year Yield Is Topping 4.5 Percent
The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed above 4.5 percent for the first time since 2023, and it's not because of the Fed. Lucas and Luna unpack the mechanics behind the move: a surge in term premium driven by fiscal deficits and debt issuance, while short-term rate expectations stay anchored. They explain what the 2-year versus 10-year spread is really saying about the economy, and why the bond mark
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent in July 2026
The 30-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5 percent, a level not sustained since before the 2008 financial crisis. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine what's driving the break — a term premium shock, not a growth story. They look at how the 5.06 percent yield is reshaping mortgage pricing, pension fund assumptions, and the logic of long-duration bonds. Using data from July 18, 2026, they wal
Why the 2-Year Yield Is a Better Signal Than the Fed Funds Rate
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why the 2-year Treasury yield has become a more reliable indicator of monetary policy direction than the Fed funds rate itself. With the Fed holding rates at 3.63% since June and the 2-year yield dropping to 4.13%, the bond market is pricing in cuts the Fed hasn't signaled. They examine the mechanics: how the 2-year yield reflects
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening Without a Recession
The yield curve has been steepening since late 2024 — but the recession many expected hasn't arrived. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the 10-year minus 2-year spread, which sits at 41 basis points as of July 16, 2026. They break down why longer-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields, with the 30-year Treasury breaking above 5% while the 3-month yield falls. The hosts explore
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent
Episode 117 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna examine why the 30-year Treasury yield is pushing above 5 percent in mid-2026, even as shorter-dated yields fall. They break down the widening spread between the 30-year and the 2-year, now over 90 basis points, and what it signals about term premium, fiscal deficits, and inflation expectations. With the 10-year yield at 4.58% and
Why the 2-Year Yield Is Flashing a Recession Signal
The 2-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4.2 percent for the first time since early 2024, while the 10-year yield sits at 4.58 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what this narrowing spread means for recession timing, how the bond market is now pricing in Fed rate cuts, and why the 2-year yield may be a better early warning system than the yield curve itself. They look at the recent data: the 10-ye
How the 2-Year Yield Is Becoming a Better Fed Signal Than the Fed
The 2-year Treasury yield has historically been a sensitive barometer of Fed rate expectations, but in mid-2026, something unusual is happening: the 2-year yield is rising even as the Fed holds rates steady. Lucas and Luna dig into the mechanics behind this decoupling, exploring how the market is effectively second-guessing the Fed's forward guidance on interest rates. With the 2-year at 4.26 perc
How the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent
The 30-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5% for the first time since late 2023, and the long bond is sending a message the Fed can't ignore. Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the move — from term premium repricing to foreign demand fading — and what it means for mortgage rates, pension funds, and the curve. They also look at why the 10-year yield is lagging behind, and whether this is the st
How the Fed Funds Rate Became a Lagging Indicator
In mid-2026, the Fed funds rate sits at 3.63% while the 3-month Treasury yield has fallen to 3.85% and the 10-year yield hovers at 4.56%. Episode 113 of The Bond Market Podcast examines how the Fed's key policy rate has lost its signaling power. Lucas and Luna discuss why short-term money markets now move independently of the Fed's target, how the spread between the funds rate and three-month bill
How the Agency Mortgage Bond Market Is Breaking From Treasuries
Episode 112 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into a quiet but critical shift in fixed-income markets: agency mortgage-backed securities are decoupling from Treasuries in July 2026. They unpack why the Ginnie Mae-Treasury spread just blew out to 45 basis points, how the Fed's running off its MBS portfolio faster than expected, and what that means for yield hunters and h
How the Three-Month Yield Drop Is Breaking the Carry Trade
The three-month Treasury yield has fallen 13 basis points in just two weeks while the Fed Funds rate holds steady at 3.63 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack why the short end of the curve is moving independently of the central bank, how money-market funds are pulling cash from T-bills into overnight reverse repo, and what that means for the $500 billion carry trade that has been propping up hedge fund
How the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Defying the Fed in July 2026
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.54% despite the Fed holding its policy rate steady at 3.63%. They break down the widening disconnect between short-term rates anchored by the Fed and long-term yields driven by term premium, fiscal deficits, and global demand. Using current data — including the 30-year yield at 5.05%
How TIPS Are Becoming a Contrarian Bet in July 2026
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has dropped to 2.1% — below the Fed's 2% target for the first time in three years. Hosts Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for TIPS investors, why the bond market is signaling a potential undershoot on inflation, and whether inflation-protected bonds still make sense as a hedge. With the 5-year TIPS yield turning positive and real yields climbing, the episo
Why the Fed Funds Rate Is Becoming Irrelevant in Mid-2026
Lucas and Luna dissect a quiet revolution in fixed-income markets: the Fed's interest on reserves is now 3.65%, but the effective fed funds rate has drifted to 3.63% — a two-basis-point gap that signals a structural shift. They explore how repo market plumbing, bank reserve scarcity from quantitative tightening, and the SOFR rate's growing dominance are making the fed funds rate a less reliable po
How the Fed's Forward Guidance Lost Its Grip on Bond Yields
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine why the Fed's forward guidance is failing to anchor long-term yields in July 2026. With the 10-year yield at 4.57% and the 30-year at 5.07%, markets are ignoring the Fed's 'higher for longer' message. The hosts break down how a new FOMC task force, led by Kevin Warsh, signals a shift in communication strategy. They dis
How Inflation-Indexed Bonds Are Misreading the Economy
Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: TIPS spreads have been compressing even as core inflation stays sticky above 3 percent. They walk through the mechanics of breakeven inflation rates, why the TIPS market might be sending a false signal, and what it means for fixed-income investors who rely on inflation protection. Drawing on July 2026 data — the 10-year TIPS yield at 1.85 percent, the 5-year break
Why TIPS Spreads Signal a Regime Change in Inflation Expectations
In Episode 105 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between TIPS and nominal Treasuries, using the breakeven inflation rate as a compass for market psychology. With the 10-year breakeven sliding to 2.15% and the Fed's interest on reserve balances stuck at 3.65%, they unpack what the TIPS market is saying about the durability of inflation over the next decade.
Why Corporate Bond Spreads Are Widening in July 2026
Episode 104 of The Bond Market Podcast: Lucas and Luna examine why investment-grade corporate bond spreads are widening even as Treasury yields remain elevated. With the yield curve steepening and the Fed holding rates at 3.65 percent, companies like Verizon and Lockheed Martin are turning to private credit—a $70 billion Goldman Sachs deal this week signals a structural shift. The hosts unpack how
How Mortgage Bonds Are Decoupling from Treasuries in July 2026
Lucas and Luna explore a quiet but consequential shift in fixed income: the growing decoupling of agency mortgage-backed securities from Treasury yields. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.55 percent and the 30-year at 5.05 percent, MBS spreads have widened sharply in July 2026, driven by elevated prepayment uncertainty, Federal Reserve portfolio runoff, and a structural decline in new origination vol
Why the 3-Month Yield Is Falling While the Fed Holds Steady
The 3-month Treasury yield has dropped to 3.86 percent, even though the Fed's interest on reserves sits at 3.65. Lucas and Luna explain why short-term yields are diverging from the Fed's policy rate. The episode drills into the mechanics of repo markets, money market fund flows, and Treasury bill supply. Lucas points out that the 3-month yield is now just 21 basis points above the IORB rate — the
How the Fed Minutes Revealed a Family Fight Over Rates
The Federal Reserve released minutes from its June meeting on July 8, 2026, and they showed something rare: an open split among voting members. Lucas and Luna dig into the details—how the 10-year yield at 4.48 percent and the 2-year at 4.13 percent reflect a market that doesn't know which way the Fed will move next. They trace the 'family fight' to the gap between the Fed's 3.65 percent interest o
Episode 100 How the Bond Market Priced Its Own 2026 Future
In episode 100 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna mark the milestone by zooming out — not to recap past episodes, but to ask what the yield curve on July 8, 2026 actually says about the market's own long-run expectations. They anchor on the 3-month versus 10-year spread, now 0.61 percentage points, and the 10-year at 4.48 percent, and explore why term premium — not just expected rate cuts
Why the Fed's Interest on Reserves Is a Hidden Floor for Yields
The Fed's Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) is the quiet mechanism that keeps short-term Treasury yields from falling below 3.65 percent. When the 2-year yield recently dipped to 4.14 and the 3-month yield slid to 3.82, that floor prevented a steeper drop. Lucas explains how IORB works, why money market funds use it as a rate anchor, and what happens if the Fed cuts IORB before the fed funds rat
How the 10-30 Year Treasury Spread Signals Term Premium
Episode 98 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo drills into one specific number: the spread between the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, now at about 50 basis points. Lucas and Luna explore what that gap says about the term premium investors demand for holding long-duration bonds in July 2026, why that premium has expanded as the yield curve steepens, and whether the 30-year yield above 4.9
How Hedge Funds Are Gaming the SOFR-Treasury Basis Trade
In July 2026, the SOFR-Treasury basis trade has become a quiet battleground for hedge funds and dealer desks. Lucas and Luna unpack how the Secured Overnight Financing Rate is diverging from Treasury bill yields, creating a low-risk arbitrage that's drawing billions. With the 3-month T-bill at 3.85 percent and interest on reserves at 3.65 percent, the spread is compelling for levered players. But
How the Two-Year Yield Is Breaking the Fed's Hold
Episode 96 of The Bond Market Podcast: Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising divergence between the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed's policy rate in July 2026. With the 2-year at 4.17% and the Fed holding at 3.65%, they explore how aggressive T-bill supply and shifting rate expectations are reshaping the short end of the curve. Lucas breaks down the mechanics of the 3-month vs 2-year spread, t
Why Muni Bonds Are Beating Treasuries in July 2026
State and local government bonds are on a tear relative to Treasuries. The 10-year yield sits at 4.48% as of July 1, 2026, but many high-grade municipal bonds now yield more than Treasuries on a tax-equivalent basis. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics: why supply is limited, demand from insurance companies and high-net-worth individuals is surging, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 4.97% is p
Why T-Bill Auctions Are Breaking the Short-End Trade
Episode 94 of The Bond Market Podcast: Lucas and Luna examine a fresh phenomenon shaking the short end of the Treasury curve. With the 3-month yield at 3.85 percent and the Fed's interest on reserves at 3.65 percent, the Treasury's massive bill issuance is creating a peculiar dynamic where short-term yields are actually falling relative to longer-term ones — the opposite of what textbook economics
Why TIPS Are Losing Their Inflation Protection Edge
Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point from July 2026: TIPS are underperforming nominal Treasuries even as inflation stays sticky. The TIP ETF is down 0.3% over the past five days while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.48. They explain what's going on with break-even inflation rates, the role of real yields, and what this means for fixed-income investors who thought TIPS were a safe hedge.
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening in July 2026
The yield curve is steepening — the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has widened to 35 basis points, up from 31 just days ago. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving that move: the 2-year yield is stuck near 4.17 percent, anchored by a Fed holding its policy rate at 3.65 percent, while the 30-year bond yield has jumped to 4.97 percent. They explain how long-term
Why the Bond Market Is Unpricing Recession Risk in July 2026
The yield curve has been inverted for two years, but something strange is happening in July 2026: the 2-year yield is rising while the 10-year yield is rising faster, pushing the spread to 35 basis points. Lucas and Luna explore why the bond market is starting to unpriciate recession risk—and what that means for investors. They focus on the 10-year yield bump from 4.44 to 4.48 and the 2-year climb
How the 2-Year Yield Is Ignoring the Fed in July 2026
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore the puzzling disconnect between the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed's rate stance. With the 2-year yield at 4.17% as of July 1, 2026, it's refusing to follow the Fed's 3.65% interest on reserves. They break down why the bond market is pricing in higher rates despite the Fed holding steady, using the latest data on the 10-year yie
How the 2-Year Yield Is Ignoring the Fed in July 2026
Episode 89 of The Bond Market Podcast: In July 2026, the 2-year Treasury yield is rising even as the Fed holds rates steady. Lucas and Luna dive into why short-term yields are decoupling from policy, focusing on the Treasury's massive bill issuance and the market's hawkish repricing. With the 2-year at 4.14 and the 10-year at 4.44, the spread is narrowing—but not for the reasons you'd expect. The
Why the 30-Year Yield Stays Above 4.9 While the Fed Holds at 3.65
Episode 88 of The Bond Market Podcast unpacks a striking divergence: the 30-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.97 percent, while the fed funds rate sits at 3.65 percent. Lucas and Luna explore the term premium, the supply glut of long-dated debt, and the structural demand gap from pension funds and foreign buyers. They walk through how the 30-year's steep yield is reshaping mortgage rates and
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