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The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners
The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners
Lucas and Luna host a daily show that cuts through fixed-income market noise, covering Treasuries, corporate bonds, and the yield curve with a methodical, data-driven approach. Former bond trader Lucas provides institutional perspective, while macro strategist Luna makes complex concepts accessible. Each episode focuses on a single theme such as ETF liquidity, muni tax implications, or corporate debt restructuring. Listeners gain frameworks to understand bond price action and why moves in two-year notes matter.
Episodes
Why Short Term Cash Is Trapped In The Yield Curve
The ten-year Treasury yield is sitting at five point two two percent while the three-month bill yields four point two three. That spread creates a strange trap for investors holding short term cash. We break down why your money market funds are losing ground to longer durations and how the Fed Funds effective rate of three point seven five changes the calculus for fixed income portfolios right now
The Hidden Tax On Your Short Term Cash
Lucas and Luna dissect the counterintuitive reality of holding cash in a sticky inflation environment. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 5.22 percent and the Fed Funds rate hovering near 3.88 percent, short-term instruments like the three-month Treasury yielding 4.23 percent offer nominal safety but real purchasing power erosion. They explore why investors are trapped in this duration trap, how
The Hidden Cost Of Short Term Cash Traps
With the ten-year Treasury yield holding near five point two percent and short-end rates climbing, cash investors are facing a quiet paradox. JPMorgan recently called this a generational opportunity in fixed income, but for those trapped in money market funds, the real story is about duration risk and liquidity premiums. We break down why your short term cash is yielding less than you think, how t
The Yield Curve's Quiet Trap For Cash Investors
With the ten-year Treasury yield holding at five point two percent and the three-month bill sitting at four point two three, cash investors are facing a structural dilemma. Lucas and Luna dissect why the short end of the curve is refusing to steepen as expected, trapping liquidity in low-yield instruments while long bonds offer relative safety. We explore the mechanics behind this stubborn paralle
How The Fed Funds Rate Traps Bond Investors
The Federal Reserve effective funds rate sits at 3.75 percent while the ten-year Treasury yield trades near 5.27 percent. This spread creates a structural trap for fixed income investors who chase duration instead of cash flow. Lucas and Luna break down why the short end of the curve remains sticky despite long bond volatility. They examine how interest on reserve balances at 3.90 percent anchors
Why Your Short Term Cash Is Trapped In The Yield Curve
The ten-year Treasury yield just hit 5.31 percent while the two-year sits at 4.84, creating a steep curve that defies the usual recession playbook. We dig into why short-term cash is yielding less than long-term debt in October 2026, and what this stubborn non-inversion means for your fixed income allocation. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of the Fed Funds rate versus market pricing, expl
Why Your Bond Portfolio Is Trapped in Short Duration
The ten-year Treasury yield has climbed to five point three one percent while the two-year sits at four point eight four. This steepening curve is forcing fixed-income investors into a difficult position. We explore why short-duration cash instruments are yielding more than long-term bonds, how this inversion of traditional logic impacts corporate borrowing, and what it means for your portfolio ri
Why Bond Yields Are Rising Despite Lower Rates
Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect between falling short-term rates and climbing long-term yields in early October 2026. With the ten-year Treasury at five point two four percent and the yield curve still steep, they explore why investors are demanding higher compensation for duration risk. The conversation examines how inflation expectations and term premium shifts are reshaping fixed income po
The Real Cost Of Your Short Term Cash
With the ten year Treasury yield sitting at five point two four percent and the three month bill at four point one seven, short term cash looks like a safe harbor. But are you actually earning what you think? Lucas and Luna break down the hidden mechanics of money market funds versus direct Treasuries, exploring why your savings rate might be lagging behind the headline Fed Funds rate. We look at
Why Your Cash Is Trapped In The Short End
With the ten-year Treasury yield sitting at 5.24 percent and the Fed Funds rate holding steady at 3.75 percent, investors face a unique paradox: short-term cash is paying surprisingly well, while long-term debt remains expensive. We explore why the steepening curve is trapping capital in money market funds and forcing corporate borrowers to rethink their liquidity strategies right now in early Oct
The Bond Market's Quiet Paradox
With the ten-year Treasury yield sitting at five point two nine percent and the Fed Funds rate near three point eight eight, we explore why bond prices are falling even as the market prices out aggressive rate hikes. Lucas and Luna break down the specific mechanics of this disconnect, focusing on how long-end yields are driven by fiscal supply rather than just central bank policy. We look at the w
How The Short End Of The Yield Curve Is Rewiring Your Cash
With the three-month Treasury yield holding near four point two five percent and the ten-year sitting at five point two six, the traditional bond market narrative is breaking down. Lucas and Luna dissect why short-term bills are currently offering better risk-adjusted returns than long-duration assets for institutional and retail investors alike. We explore the mechanics of the inverted curve, the
Why The Yield Curve Is Stubbornly Steep
The ten-year Treasury yield sits above five percent while the two-year yield follows closely behind, keeping the spread wider than expected. We explore why long-term bond investors are demanding higher compensation for duration risk despite stable short-term rates. This disconnect between near-term policy and long-term fiscal reality is reshaping how we price debt across all asset classes.
#Fexin
Why Long Bond Yields Are Defying The Fed
With the ten-year Treasury yield holding near five point seventeen percent and the spread between long and short rates compressing to thirty-two basis points, the bond market is sending a clear signal that contradicts the Federal Reserve’s current stance. Lucas and Luna dissect why investors are demanding higher compensation for duration risk right now, even as the overnight rate remains stuck at
How Treasury Volatility Rewires Corporate Borrowing
With the ten-year Treasury yield holding above five percent and corporate bond spreads tightening, companies are facing a new reality in fixed income markets. We break down why debt-hungry sectors like AI infrastructure are feeling the squeeze right now, and how rising rates are forcing CFOs to rethink their capital structures. This episode explores the hidden cost of duration risk for leveraged f
Why AI Debt Is Trapped In Rising Rates
The ten-year Treasury yield has climbed to five point one eight percent, creating a perfect storm for capital-intensive artificial intelligence firms. We explore how high borrowing costs are forcing data center developers and chip designers to rethink their leverage strategies right now in September twenty twenty six.
#Treasuries #Yields #ArtificialIntelligence #FixedIncome #DataCenters #DebtFina
The Yield Curve's Stubborn Non-Inversion
With the ten-year Treasury yield sitting at five point one eight percent and the two-year at four point eighty seven, the classic yield curve inversion has vanished. But why hasn't this normalization sparked the expected economic boom? We dig into the mechanics of long-end duration risk, the structural demand for safe assets from foreign central banks, and why investors are paying a premium to hol
Why The Yield Curve Is Flattening But Not Inverting
With the ten-year Treasury yield sitting at 5.11 percent and short rates holding steady near 4.85 percent, the traditional bear steepener is showing signs of fatigue. Lucas and Luna break down why the curve is flattening without fully inverting, exploring the structural disconnect between long-end duration risk and near-term policy expectations. They examine how this specific spread dynamic impact
How Bond Investors Are Hedging Duration Risk
With the ten-year Treasury yield holding near five percent and the yield curve remaining steeply inverted, long-duration bond funds are facing intense pressure. In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how sophisticated investors are using treasury futures and options to hedge against further rate volatility rather than simply selling off holdings. We look at why the Phil
Why Long Bond Yields Are Surging
Treasuries are sending a sharp signal that investors demand more premium for long-term risk. Lucas and Luna unpack the widening spread between short and long rates, focusing on the thirty-year Treasury yield climbing to five point two nine percent while short rates remain anchored near three point six percent. They explore how duration risk is reshaping portfolio construction right now in late Sep
Why The Yield Curve Is Flattening But Not Inverting
The ten-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.96 percent while short rates hold steady near 3.88 percent, creating a historically flat but positive spread. Lucas and Luna break down why this specific configuration — a flattening curve without the traditional inversion — signals a different kind of economic tension than what investors saw in 2022 or 2025. They explore how the bond market is pricing i
Why The Fed Is Losing Control Of Rates
The Federal Reserve’s effective rate sits at 3.63 percent, yet the ten-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5.30 percent. In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack why the central bank has effectively lost its grip on long-term borrowing costs. We look at the structural shift in Treasury supply, the quiet retreat of foreign buyers, and how corporate debt markets are now pri
How The Bond Market Rewired Corporate Borrowing
Corporate debt is no longer just about borrowing at the Fed's rate. With the ten-year Treasury yield hovering near five percent and short-term rates trapped above three point six percent, companies are facing a split market that rewards patience and punishes leverage. We break down how this divergence in the yield curve is forcing CFOs to rethink refinancing windows, lock in longer maturities, and
The Hidden Cost of Your Bond Portfolio's Duration
With the ten-year Treasury yield hovering near five percent and short-term rates trapping savers at lower levels, Lucas and Luna break down why duration risk is silently eroding bond fund returns. They examine how a small shift in interest rate expectations can swing portfolio values by double digits, using specific data from the latest Treasury auction to show why holding longer-dated bonds feels
Why Warren Buffett Stepping Down Matters for Bond Yields
Warren Buffett just stepped down as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, a move that sends shockwaves through equity markets. But for fixed-income investors, the real story lies in how his departure reshapes the flow of capital into corporate bonds and Treasuries. With the ten-year yield holding near five percent and short rates stuck at three point six percent, we explore whether this leadership trans
How Tokenized Bonds Are Changing Fixed Income
Securitize just got regulatory greenlight for tokenized stock trading, but the real shift is happening in fixed income. Lucas and Luna break down how blockchain technology is turning illiquid Treasury bonds into liquid digital assets. With ten-year yields sitting at five percent and short-term funds squeezed, we explore how tokenization lowers barriers for everyday investors and reshapes the bond
Why The Fed Just Hiked And Yields Still Climbed
On September sixteen twenty-six the Federal Reserve approved an interest rate hike while Treasury yields continued their upward march. Lucas and Luna unpack why the market reacted with skepticism rather than relief. They look at the ten-year yield sitting near five percent, the two-year yield holding above four point six, and what this divergence tells us about investor confidence in the new polic
How Bond Market Volatility Is Reshaping Corporate Debt
The ten-year Treasury yield has climbed to nearly five percent, creating a new hurdle for corporate borrowers who once relied on cheap capital. We break down how this shift is forcing companies to rethink their balance sheets, why the spread between Treasuries and corporate bonds is tightening, and what it means for investment-grade debt in a higher-rate environment. With short-term rates holding
The Bond Market's Silent Squeeze on Middle Managers
We are looking at the structural shift in corporate debt issuance as yields hover near five percent. With the ten-year Treasury yield sitting at four point nine five percent, companies that relied on cheap borrowing to fund expansion are now facing a harsh reality check. We explore how this rate environment is forcing CFOs to delay capital projects, refinance existing debt at higher costs, and ret
How Treasury Volatility Is Reshaping Corporate Debt
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to nearly five percent and short-term rates holding steady, the cost of borrowing for corporations has shifted dramatically. We break down how this specific spread is forcing companies to rethink their capital structure, moving away from long-term fixed debt toward shorter durations or equity raises. The result is a quiet but significant change in how busi
Why Your Bank Savings Beat The Bond Market
With the ten-year Treasury yield hovering near five percent and short-term funds under pressure, everyday savers are finding a strange anomaly: their high-yield savings accounts are outperforming many bond investments. We look at the mechanics behind this inversion, why the spread between deposit rates and Treasury yields has narrowed to just thirty basis points, and what that means for your cash
Why Bond Yields Are Spiking Without a Fed Rate Hike
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.83 percent while the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.63 percent, something else is driving bond prices down. Lucas and Luna explore the disconnect between short-term policy and long-term market sentiment. They examine how inflation expectations, supply dynamics, and global demand shifts are reshaping fixed income valuations in September 2026,
The Bond Market's Silent Squeeze on Middle Managers
With the ten-year Treasury yield sitting near four point eight percent and the thirty-year rate above five percent, the cost of capital has shifted from a macro headline to a daily operational headache. This episode examines how rising long-end rates are squeezing middle-market companies that rely on floating-rate debt and short-term credit lines. We look at the specific mechanics of why refinanci
The Bond Market's New Middle Ground
The five-year Treasury yield is quietly becoming the most important number in fixed income. We explore why investors are flocking to the intermediate curve as short rates stay trapped near three point six percent and long yields hover above five percent. With the ten-year-two-year spread at forty-one basis points, the middle of the road offers a unique balance of duration risk and carry that neith
The Real Cost of Your Savings Account
We look at why your high-yield savings rate feels so low when the ten-year Treasury yield sits near four point seven seven percent. Lucas and Luna break down the hidden markup banks charge on deposits versus what they earn on Treasuries, using the current three-point-six-three percent Fed Funds rate as a baseline. It is not about bad actors; it is about structural margins that are widening as shor
Why Short Rates Are Trapped at 3.6 Percent
With the Fed Funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and short-term yields hovering near 3.76, we examine why the shortest end of the yield curve has lost its momentum despite inflation cooling. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of Interest on Reserve Balances, the disconnect between market expectations and central bank reality, and what this flat spot means for your savings account versus institut
The Silent Squeeze in Short-Term Bond Funds
Short-term Treasury funds like SHY are holding steady near eighty-one dollars while the two-year yield sits at forty-three cents above the ten-year. We explore why investors are flocking to the belly of the curve despite rising long-end yields, and what that shift tells us about the market's view of inflation and central bank policy heading into the final quarter of twenty-twenty-six.
#ShortTermB
Why Your Savings Rate Doesn't Match The Market
The disconnect between the Fed Funds rate and what you actually earn on savings accounts is widening. We look at how banks are using Net Interest Margin to protect profits while holding deposit rates steady, even as Treasury yields fluctuate around 4.78 percent. It is a lesson in friction costs and why your cash feels like it is working harder than it looks.
#SavingsRates #NetInterestMargin #Bank
The Silent Squeeze in Short-Term Bond Funds
With the three-month Treasury yield holding near 3.92 percent and the Fed Funds rate flat at 3.63 percent, short-duration bond funds like SHY are facing a unique pressure test. Lucas and Luna break down why investors chasing safety in ultra-short Treasuries are seeing their yields lag behind money market alternatives, and what this quiet divergence means for portfolio construction as we move throu
The Hidden Cost of Rising Treasury Yields
Lucas and Luna unpack why the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.79 percent is quietly reshaping corporate balance sheets, even as the Federal Reserve holds steady at 3.63 percent. They explore the disconnect between short-term policy and long-term market pricing, using recent moves in Snowflake and Moderna as case studies for how higher borrowing costs impact growth stocks and R&D budgets. The
Why the Carry Trade Is Making Money Again
With the three-month Treasury yield holding near 3.91 percent and the two-year yield flat at 4.34, a familiar dynamic is returning to fixed income: the carry trade. Lucas and Luna break down how investors are profiting from the spread between short-term safe assets and riskier debt, why this strategy feels different in September 2026 than it did a decade ago, and what the recent move in long-end y
The Two-Year Yield Is Not the Fed's Signal Anymore
For months, Wall Street treated the 2-year Treasury yield as a direct wire into the Fed's next move. But as of late August 2026, the 2-year is stuck at 4.20 percent while the effective fed funds rate sits at 3.63 — a gap that used to scream 'hikes coming.' Lucas and Luna unpack why that gap has stopped meaning what it used to: the Fed's balance-sheet runoff, a wall of short-dated corporate paper,
The Curve That Broke the Forecasters
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.67 percent, the 30-year at 5.19, and the yield curve has narrowed to just 39 basis points between the 10 and the 2. But the real story isn't the level—it's how every model got the shape wrong. Lucas and Luna unpack why the curve has broken from its historical relationship with the Fed, what that means for mortgage rates and borrowing costs, and why the long end
Why the Yield Curve Is Reinverting as the Fed Holds Steady
The gap between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has narrowed to just 0.39 percentage points, down from 0.47 a week ago. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what's driving this quiet reinversion, why the 30-year yield is still stubbornly above 5 percent, and what it says about the market's expectations for the Fed. They examine the bond market's role as a forecasting tool, why long-te
Why the 2-Year Treasury Yield Is the Fed's Favorite Signal
The 2-year Treasury yield has been quietly creeping up—now at 4.19 percent, back above the Fed's effective rate of 3.63 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 2-year is the market's clearest window into Fed expectations, how it shapes mortgage rates, and what today's yield says about the likelihood of a September hike. They dig into the mechanics of the 2-year auction, the role of
The Quiet Divide Between Bond Investors and the Fed
This episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo unpacks a subtle but telling divergence: while the Fed holds its policy rate near 3.63 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.64 and the 30-year at 5.17. Why are long-term yields so much higher than the central bank's target, and what does that gap say about inflation expectations, term premium, and the market's faith in the Fed's path? L
Why the 30-Year Yield's 5.2 Percent Floor Is the New Normal
The 30-year Treasury yield has been hovering around 5.2 percent for over a year, even as the Fed holds rates near 3.6 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what's keeping long-term yields pinned so high: term premium, supply, and the market's new center of gravity. They explore how the 10-year yield, now at 4.7 percent, has become the benchmark that matters, and what this means for your
The Fed's New Tool for Controlling the Yield Curve
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the Federal Reserve's latest intervention: a new tool that directly targets long-term Treasury yields. With the 10-year yield hovering near 4.74 percent and the 30-year at 5.27 percent, the Fed has stepped in with a two-pronged approach—selling short-dated bills while buying long bonds—a strategy that echoes Operation Twist but with
How the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Shaping the Bond Market
Lucas and Luna break down why the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.69 percent matters more than the 30-year's move above 5.2 percent. They explore how the yield curve's steepening reflects investor expectations for growth and inflation, and what that means for mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, and your portfolio. With the 2-year stuck near 4.19 and the Fed on hold, the discussion reveals why the 10-
The 10-Year Yield Is the New Center of Gravity
The 10-year Treasury yield has become the bond market's center of gravity, with the yield curve flattening and steepening in ways that confuse investors. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 10-year matters more than the 2-year or the 30-year, using current data: the 10-year at 4.69 percent, the 2-year at 4.19 percent, and the 30-year at 5.23 percent. They explore how the 10-year influen
Why the 30-Year Yield Stays Above 5 Percent While the Fed Holds Steady
On this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been nagging fixed-income investors all summer: why does the 30-year Treasury yield keep pushing toward 5.3 percent while the Fed's policy rate sits at 3.63 and the 2-year yield is stuck near 4.2? They break down the term premium, the market's view on inflation and fiscal policy, and what it means for the long end.
Why the 10-Year Yield Is the Market's New Center of Gravity
The 10-year Treasury yield has quietly become the bond market's anchor in 2026, even as the 30-year hits headlines above 5 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into why the 10-year matters more now—touching on the 4.65 percent level, the widening 10-year versus 2-year spread, and what it means for mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, and portfolio strategy. They break down the shift in market focus from th
How a Chinese Bond Market Defies the Global Yield Surge
While Treasury yields hover near 4.7 percent for the ten-year and 5.28 for the thirty-year, China's bond market is moving in the opposite direction, offering a rare diversification play for global investors. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the data behind the trend, from the ten-year Chinese government bond yield sitting at a record low to the structural reasons—aging demographics, high s
What the Rising 30-Year Yield Means for Savers and Borrowers
Long-term Treasury yields are climbing again, with the 30-year sitting at 5.31 percent as of mid-August 2026, while the 10-year hovers near 4.72. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the long end higher—from term premium concerns to fiscal deficits—and what it actually means for everyday savers, mortgage borrowers, and retirement portfolios. They cut through the jargon to explain
The 30-Year Yield at 5.25 Percent and the New Bond Math
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest move higher in long-dated Treasury yields, with the 30-year now sitting at 5.25 percent while the 10-year hovers near 4.68 percent. They explain why this steepening curve is not just a Wall Street story, but a signal about inflation expectations, fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve's next move. Using today's live data,
Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is the New Benchmark
On this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the 10-year Treasury yield has emerged as the most-watched bond market signal in 2026. With the 30-year yield at 5.21 percent and the 2-year at 4.15 percent, investors are leaning on the 10-year as the new anchor for everything from mortgages to corporate borrowing. Lucas traces how the 10-year's role shifted after the Fed's ti
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Above 5 Percent and What It Means
In episode 160 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the stubbornly high 30-year Treasury yield, now at 5.26%. While the 10-year has ticked down to 4.63%, the long bond refuses to budge, leaving investors to wonder: is this the new normal? The hosts unpack the drivers—term premium, supply concerns, and the Fed's path—and explain why the long end is sending a different signal than the
Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Stuck Near 3.87 Percent
Lucas and Luna dig into the odd quiet of the 3-month Treasury bill, which is hovering around 3.87 percent even as the Fed Funds rate sits at 3.63 and the rest of the curve shows more movement. They explore what this means for money market funds, the Fed's balance sheet, and why the front end is suddenly the place to watch. With a nod to the inverted curve history and the recent steepening, they co
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Above 5 Percent While the 2-Year Sits at 4.2
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzle that's got fixed-income investors scratching their heads: the 30-year Treasury yield is hovering around 5.27 percent, while the 2-year yield sits at 4.20 percent. That's a steep curve, and it's sending signals about inflation, term premiums, and what the Fed might do next. Using the latest data from August 2026, they explor
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Stuck Near 5 Percent
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why the 30-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly near 5 percent even as the curve steepens and the front end drifts lower. They unpack the structural forces keeping long-term yields elevated: term premium, supply concerns, and the shift in investor positioning. With the 10-year at 4.70 percent and the 2-year at 4.22 percent, the h
Why the Long End Keeps Outperforming the Front End
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising twist in the Treasury market: while the 2-year yield has drifted up to 4.25 percent, the 30-year yield has climbed to 5.25 percent, pushing the yield curve to its steepest since 2022. They unpack the forces behind this divergence—from term premium and supply concerns to the Fed's policy stance and sticky inflation—and
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Stuck Above 5 Percent
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the persistent 30-year Treasury yield above 5 percent, a level that's been frustrating fixed-income investors for weeks. With the 30-year at 5.19 percent and the 10-year at 4.65 percent, the curve is steepening, but long-duration bonds are taking a hit. They discuss the structural forces keeping long yields elevated — from term pr
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Stuck Above 5 Percent
The 30-year Treasury yield has been hovering above 5 percent for weeks, while the 10-year sits at 4.70 and the 2-year at about 3.72. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into why long-term yields aren't falling even as the Fed keeps rates steady and the curve steepens. They break down the role of term premium, structural demand from pension funds and foreign buyers, and how the AI infrastructure bu
Why the 2-Year Yield Is Stuck Above Fed Funds
The 2-year Treasury yield sits at 4.25 percent, a full 62 basis points above the effective fed funds rate of 3.63 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why that gap persists even as markets price in rate cuts. They look at how the front end has become the market's battleground for Fed expectations, why the 3-month yield is drifting lower, and what the recent convergence of 2-year and 5-y
Why Long Bond Yields Stay High as the Curve Steepens
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 30-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly above 5 percent while the 2-year yield sits near 4.25 percent, even as the Federal Reserve holds rates steady. They explore the role of term premium, supply dynamics, and the market's reaction to a weak July jobs report that has traders trimming September hike bets. With the 10-year
What the Copper Price Surge Is Telling Bond Investors
Copper just hit its highest level ever. What does that tell bond investors? In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence between red-hot copper and a Treasury market that's pricing in weak growth. They explore how copper's dual role as a bellwether for global growth and a gauge of inflation expectations creates a puzzle for fixed-income markets. With the 10-year yield at 4.66 percent and
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Had Its Biggest One-Day Drop
On August 4, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.70% to 4.63% in a single day — the sharpest one-day drop in months. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what drove that move, from a surprising Fed Governor's hawkish comments to a quiet shift in the 30-year yield, which remains above 5%. They explain why the yield curve is steepening, what the front end is telling us about rate hike
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Above 5 Percent and What It Means
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a striking market signal: the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.70, widening the long-end spread to levels not seen in years. They explore what this steepening curve says about inflation expectations, fiscal policy, and the Fed's next moves. With the 3-month yield at 3.91 and the Fed fund
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Eclipsing the 10-Year
The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27 percent, its highest level in years, while the 10-year sits at 4.75. That 52-basis-point gap is the widest in over a decade, and it's reshaping how investors think about long-duration risk. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the long end—from term premium and foreign demand to supply concerns and the Fed's balance sheet runoff.
Why the Curve Steepening Is a Real Economic Signal
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack what the recent steepening of the Treasury yield curve actually tells us about the economy in early August 2026. With the 10-year yield at 4.68 percent and the 30-year pushing above 5.2 percent, while the 3-month bill sits at 3.82 percent, the hosts explore whether this is a sign of growth, inflation, or something else. They discuss
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is the New Signal
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising shift in the Treasury market: the 30-year yield has climbed to 5.21 percent, its highest level in over a decade, while the front end stays anchored below 4 percent. They unpack what this 'long-end repricing' means for borrowers, homeowners, and pension funds, and why some investors are starting to see opportunity in lo
Why the Front End Is the New Battleground for Bond Investors
With the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.68 percent and the 2-year at 4.23 percent, the yield curve's front end has become the most talked-about corner of the fixed-income market. But what does 'front end' really mean, and why are investors suddenly obsessing over maturities of two years or less? In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the shifting dynamics at the short end of the curve—wher
Why the 2-Year Yield Stays 60 Basis Points Above Fed Funds
The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.26%, the Fed funds rate is 3.63% – a 63 basis-point gap that's defying rate-cut expectations. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the front-end premium means for the bond market, how it compares to the 10-year spread, and why the market is pricing in a slower easing cycle than the Fed's dot plot suggests. They look at recent yield moves, the role of term prem
Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Finally Breaking Below 4 Percent
For months, the 3-month Treasury bill yield hovered above the federal funds rate, signaling tight liquidity and no imminent rate cuts. But as of July 28, 2026, the 3-month yield has dropped to 3.90% — down from 3.96% a week earlier — narrowing the spread to the fed funds rate to just 27 basis points. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the shift: the Federal Reserve's latest
What the Fed's Three Dissent Votes Mean for Bond Yields
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on July 29, 2026, but three voting members dissented in favor of a hike. Lucas and Luna break down the internal hawks-vs-doves dynamics and what it means for Treasury yields, the yield curve, and bond investors. With the 10-year at 4.65% and the 2-year at 4.31%, they explore why the market is pricing in cuts while the FOMC splits openly. Plus: the ris
Why the Yield Curve Turned Positive and What Happens Next
The 10-year versus 2-year Treasury yield spread has turned positive for the first time in over two years, sitting at 35 basis points as of July 29, 2026. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what this shift means for the economy, drawing on historical patterns from past business cycles. They discuss whether a positive slope signals an impending recession or a soft landing, and examine current da
How Duration Is Becoming Attractive Again in Fixed Income
In Episode 140 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how the yield curve's return to a positive slope is reshaping bond strategies. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.69% and the 2-year at 4.33%, the spread of 34 basis points marks a clear shift from the deeply inverted curve of recent years. They dive into why longer-duration bonds like TLT and IEF have outperformed short-term T-bi
Why TIPS Are Falling Behind Nominal Treasuries in Late July 2026
In late July 2026, inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) are underperforming their nominal counterparts. The TIP ETF dropped 0.5% in five days while the long bond ETF TLT rose 0.1%. Lucas and Luna break down why the breakeven inflation rate is contracting, how real yields are rising faster than nominal yields, and what this means for investors expecting higher inflation. They also explore the role of t
Why 2-Year and 5-Year Treasury Yields Are Converging
The spread between the 2-year and 5-year Treasury yields has collapsed to just 3 basis points, a rare flattening in the front end of the curve. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what this convergence signals about market expectations for the Federal Reserve, how it contrasts with the steep long end, and what it means for fixed-income investors. They tie in the Moody's warning on AI-driven
How Oil Prices Are Repricing Fed Rate Hike Odds
The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.37% as surging oil prices push inflation expectations higher, leading the bond market to price in two quarter-point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve before year-end. Lucas and Luna break down the connection between crude oil's rally and the short end of the yield curve, examine why the 2-year is now yielding 74 basis points above the Fed funds rate, an
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