Manifold
Steve Hsu, a professor of theoretical physics at Michigan State University, hosts wide-ranging conversations with leading writers, scientists, technologists, academics, entrepreneurs, and investors. The podcast explores topics at the intersection of science, technology, and society, blending rigorous thinking with accessible discussion. Each episode features in-depth interviews that cover everything from fundamental physics to the latest trends in business and innovation.
Episodes
AI Boom or Bust? – #122
Are we in an AI bubble? Steve reviews analysis on CapEx, AI revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates. AI revenue has to reach $trillions per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global software revenue of $1.5T today), or else the current CapEx spend will turn out to be a huge misallocation. Separately, even if total AI revenue reaches these levels, OAI and ANT coul
Effort News and AI-Driven Journalism with Brian Chau – #121
Brian Chau is a mathematician, machine learning specialist, and the founder of Effort News, an independent media outlet focused on data-first, document-led investigative journalism.https://www.effort.news/https://x.com/brianchau57Chapter Markers:(00:00) - Intro
(03:14) - Network School Fallout
(14:17) - Effort News Origins
(17:24) - AI Reporting Workflow
(35:41) - Medicare Medicaid Moment
Machine God: Hsu, Greer, Huang – #120
Machine God is a feature-length AI documentary film, created by Steve Hsu, John Greer, and Lei Huang. This episode discusses the film's creation and content.Chapter Markers:(00:00) - Meet the Filmmakers
(02:06) - Berkeley AI Boomtown Origins
(19:23) - Techno Capital and the Pause Plea
(38:55) - Why Slow Down AI
(41:40) - Recursive Self Improvement
(46:01) - Gradual Disempowerment
(51:48)
How to Build a Research Institute: Thomas Fink of the London Institute for Mathematical Sciences – #119
Dr. Thomas Fink is an Anglo-American physicist, author, and entrepreneur who serves as the founding Director of the London Institute for Mathematical Sciences (LIMS).He studied physics at Caltech, where he won the Fisher Prize, and earned his PhD at Cambridge University. His research focuses on statistical physics, combinatorics, and evolvable systems, using these tools to gain insights i
Venture Capital and Technology in China with Bohan Lou – #118
Bohan Lou is a partner at Chemistry Ventures, based in SF.https://x.com/loubohanBohan's report on the venture ecosystem in China:https://x.com/loubohan/status/2082143914924851449Chapter Markers:(01:42) - Venture Capital in China; Bohan’s Shanghai Roots
(11:15) - Chemistry Fund and China Investing
(20:04) - China Trip and Venture Reality Check
(32:18) - Pressure Cooker: Founder Exits and F
Iran, AI, and the Third World War (Crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts Podcast) – #117
This is a crossover episode with Alf Beckinsale, an Oxford University student who hosts the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast. The main topics are the US-Iran conflict, geopolitics, and US-China AI competition.Chapter Markers:(00:00) - Introduction
(02:33) - No Off Ramp in Gulf
(04:11) - Missile Stockpile Crisis
(06:46) - Oil Shock and Reserves
(14:07) - Israel Stays Out
(29:34) - China Fr
State of AI, Summer 2026 – #116
Steve discusses the state of AI in summer 2026. Topics covered include: AI in math and theoretical physics, Recursive Self-Improvement, Agent swarms and tokenomics, IPOs and US-China competition, documentary film Machine God.Machine God trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RSv3wmDIpYTheoretical Physics with Generative AI: https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/theoretical-physics-with-gener
Beff Jezos and Effective Accelerationism: Machine God of Loving Grace – #115
Beff Jezos (Guillaume Verdon) is a Canadian physicist, quantum computing researcher, and tech entrepreneur. He is best known as the founder of the Effective Accelerationism (e/acc) movement.This interview was recorded in collaboration with John Greer and Lei Huang for the documentary film Machine God.John Greer: https://www.johncgreer.com/Chapter Markers:(00:00) - Meet Beff Jezos
(01:56)
Razib Khan at Manifest 2026: Genetic Discoveries, AI, and Academia – #114
This episode was recorded live at Manifest 2026. Razib Khan is a prominent writer, population geneticist, and podcaster. He is best known for his extensive deep-dives into human evolutionary history, consumer genomics, culture, and ancient DNA. https://x.com/razibkhanhttps://x.com/razibkhan?lang=enChapter Markers:(00:00) - Razib Khan at Manifest 2026: Genetic Discoveries, AI, and Academia
Letter from Beijing 2: Tsinghua University – #113
This special episode was recorded at Tsinghua University in Beijing, generally regarded as the top university in China. Our guests are 3 Americans studying and working at Tsinghua: Gabriel (undergrad), Justin (PhD student in AI), and Alex (Professor in AI research). Topics discussed include: Tsinghua University and elite human capital, AI in China, US-China competition, and the flow of hu
AI Billionaire on Existential Risk: Jaan Tallinn – #112
Jaan Tallinn is a tech billionaire and founding engineer of Skype who leverages his wealth to mitigate existential risks from artificial general intelligence (AGI). He co-founded the Future of Life Institute and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, while making early foundational investments in frontier AI labs like DeepMind andAnthropic.Chapter Markers:00:00 Assessing Current AI
Embryo Selection and Frontier Genomics with Dr. Alex Young – #111
Dr. Alex Young, a statistical geneticist and assistant professor in the Human Genetics department at UCLA, joins Steve Hsu to discuss the cutting edge of genomic prediction. They cover his research on polygenic embryo screening in IVF (including the ImputePGTA method), family-based DNA analysis, missing heritability, and the implications of polygenic scores for traits like education and d
Iran War is the First Missile War (crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast) – #110
Steve and Alf discuss the Iran War, emphasizing what itreveals about modern missile and anti-missile technology, drones, andthe implications for a US-China conflict in the Western Pacific.Links:https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/Chapter Markers:(00:00) - Missile War Reality Check
(01:49) - How the War Started
(04:46) - Iran Outperforms Expectations
(06:22) - Why Missile Defense Fa
Dreamers and Doomers: Our AI future, with Richard Ngo – #109
Richard Ngo is an independent AI researcher and philosopher known forhis work on AGI safety and alignment. He recently resigned fromOpenAI, where he was a member of the Governance team focused onforecasting the capabilities and risks of advanced AI systems. Hisdebut fiction collection is titled "The Gentle Romance: Stories of AIand Humanity", published in December 2025. The book features
China, Acceleration, and Nick Land - with Matt Southey – #108
Matt Southey is an editor for an AI safety organization. He wrote his PhD dissertation on the philosophy of Nick Land. Matt's "A Brief History of Accelerationism" can be found here, and he recommends the second chapter of Crypto-Current as a good introduction to Land's usage of Kant. He and Steve discuss Accelerationism, AI, and Steve's recent meeting with Land in Shanghai.Chapter Markers
Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan – #107
Recorded live in Shenzhen with Taylor Ogan, the founder and CEO ofSnowbull Capital, which invests in Chinese technology companies.Taylor on X:https://x.com/TaylorOganPrevious episodes with Taylor:https://youtu.be/iehHON07UHI?si=h2c3po5AX9Z9ANaK https://youtu.be/fmjR3me5s_Q?si=sPsMFOdKebEOZXQr(00:00) - Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan
(00:53) - Meeting in S
AI DOOM: Jesse Hoogland of Timaeus
This is the second episode of our series based on interviews for the documentary film, Dreamers and Doomers, about the SF Bay Area in the last days before AGI. Steve interviews Jesse Hoogland, co-founder and executive director of Timaeus, an AI safety research org working on applications of Singular Learning Theory (SLT) for AI safety. SLT establishes a connection between the geometry of
Dreamers and Doomers: Jeremy Nixon at AGI House – #105
Jeremy Nixon is a prominent AI researcher, entrepreneur, and the co-founder of AGI House, a leading "hacker house" community for artificial intelligence developers in Silicon Valley. He studied Applied Math, Computer Science, and Economics at Harvard and was previously a researcher at Google Brain.This footage was shot for a documentary project, "Dreamers and Doomers," about the SF Bay Ar
Industrial Maximalism and Its Discontents: Dan Wang on US-China Competition – # 104
Links:Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Futurehttps://www.amazon.com/Breakneck-Chinas-Quest-Engineer-Future/dp/1324106034Dan's 2025 annual letterhttps://danwang.co/2025-letter/Related episodes:Jian Lian on Industrial Maximalism, Manifold Episode #99https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/jian-lian-on-chinas-industrial-policy-and-global-strategy-99(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome
(02:1
Geopolitics 2026, crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast – #103
Steve and Alf discuss geopolitical events of 2025 and what they expect in 2026.Links:Manifold episode with Han Feizi, Letter From Beijinghttps://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72Previous crossover episodes:Weeks Where Decades Happenhttps://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-weeks-where-decades-happenAI, China, Tariffs, Geopoliticshttps://www
Polygenics and Machine SuperIntelligence; Billionaires, Philo-semitism, and Chosen Embryos – #102
This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond.Links:Chinese billionaires, Philo-semitism, and the Chosen embryos:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2000206116823675078My talk
Theoretical Physics With Generative AI – #101
All but the last 20 minutes of this episode should be comprehensible to non-physicists.Steve explains where frontier AI models are in understanding frontier theoretical physics. The best analogy is to a “brilliant but unreliable genius colleague”!He describes a specific example: the use of AI in recent research in quantum field theory (Tomonaga-Schwinger integrability conditions applied t
Jeffrey Epstein, Israel, and Elite Power, with Murtaza Hussain – #100
Murtaza Hussain is a reporter for Drop Site News, which has brokenimportant stories based on recently obtained Epstein emails. Hussainreports that Epstein had an “extensive relationship with Israeliintelligence, U.S. intelligence and the intelligence agencies of othercountries, as well... He was a dealmaker and a fixer at a very, veryelite level.”Links:Drop Site News series on Epstein and
Jian Lian on China's Industrial Policy and Global Strategy – #99
Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Starting out as an industry analyst at a Chinese investment bank, he participated in the "Made in China 2025" initiative as a Chinese venture capitalist, working for a state-owned fund. He is the
Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98
Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term.Scott’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Provoked-Washington-Started-Ca
AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – #97
Lin Yang is a professor of computer science at UCLA. Recently, he and his collaborator built an AI pipeline using commercial models such as Gemini, ChatGPT, and Grok that performed at the gold medal level on International Mathematics Olympiad problems. Steve and Lin discuss this research, which relies on "verifier-refiner" LLM instances and large token budgets to reliably solve difficult
The Global AI Race: Z.ai and the View from Beijing — #96
Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai. He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. Z.ai has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing.https://chat.z.ai/Follow Z.AI on X: @Zai_orgChapter
Seeking Truth From Facts: Weeks Where Decades Happen — #95
This episode is a co-release with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfactsThe theme of this episode derives from Lenin:“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Steve and Alf discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:32) - China Victory Day Parade and new military technology
(12:27) - The S
Kyle Chan on the Future of US-China Competition — #94
Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. He is currently working on a book on Chinese industrial policy that aims to explain how China came to dominate certain industries today that had originally been led by the
Joleen Liang: 40M+ kids educated by adaptive AI — #93
Dr. Joleen Liang is Co-founder of Squirrel AI, which pioneered adaptive learning at scale, first in China and now in the US. By 2021 its technology had served over 60,000 public schools in 1,200 cities across Asia. Squirrel AI has implemented large knowledge graphs mapping out the main concepts in the K-12 math, science, and language curriculum. The Squirrel learning tablet actively obser
Max Dama on HFT: Millisecond Algos and Bid/Ask Dynamics — #92
Max Dama is the co-chairman of Headlands Technologies LLC, a global quantitative proprietary trading firm headquartered in Chicago, with offices in New York, Austin, London, Amsterdam and Singapore. He earned a B.A. in Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, and Business from the University of California, Berkeley.A generation of quants know Max through his notes on automated trading a
Andrew Song: Global Cooling with Sulfur Dioxide in the Stratosphere — #91
Andrew Song is a co-founder of Make Sunsets, a company focused on addressing climate change through solar geoengineering. The company launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere with the aim of reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth.https://makesunsets.com/Previous Manifold episodes on climate:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/casey-handmer-terraform-industrie
Manifold Discord Channel: Live Q&A with Steve — #90
Manifold has its own Discord channel! https://discord.gg/dvcHS6NXThe purpose of the channel is to create a community of listeners with shared interests. It developed from a series of in-person meetups with Steve in cities like SF, NYC, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai.Chapter markers:(00:00) - Manifold Discord Channel, Live Q&A
(02:36) - Genomics and Predictive Genetics
(09:28) - Trump A
Omar Shams: AI Founder and Google AI Agent Lead — #89
Shams was trained in theoretical physics before becoming an AI engineer at DeepMind and founding the company Mutable, which was acquired by Google. He is now lead engineer for Google's software agent group.Steve and Omar discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:18) - Journey from Physics to AI
(10:51) - Elon Tried to Buy DeepMind
(16:52) - Building Mutable and Auto Wiki as Context for LLMs
(33:
Patrick McGee: Apple In China — #88
Patrick McGee is a longtime FT business reporter with extensive experience reporting on China. He is the author of the highly acclaimed Apple in China: the capture of the world's greatest company. Steve and Patrick discuss the history of Apple and its impact on technology development in China. “The best book about Apple ever written, one of the best books about China ever written, and one
GODZILLA DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Military Technology with TP Huang — #87
Steve and TP discuss the implications of the recent air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over 100 fighter jets and took place entirely beyond visual range (BVR). What is sensor fusion, and have the Pakistanis achieved it with Chinese technology? Does the PL-15 outrange and outperform Western air-to-air missiles? What are the implications for US-China military competition?
Robots, Small Models, and RL with DeepSeek Alumnus Zihan Wang — #86
Zihan Wang is an AI researcher at Northwestern University, where he works on vision-language models, robotics, and reinforcement learning. Previously, he interned at DeepSeek, contributing to projects like DeepSeek-V2.Zihan's homepage: https://zihanwang314.github.io/(00:00) - Introduction
(01:13) - Zihan's Background, CS and AI Research in China
(11:09) - DeepSeek; Human capital flow fr
Dan Collins: Tariffs and the Future of US Manufacturing — #85
Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship.Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2
Seeking Truth From Facts: AI, China, Tariffs, Geopolitics — #84
This episode is a co-release with the podcast Seeking Truth From Facts: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/(00:00) - Introduction
(01:11) - China AI
(02:30) - DeepSeek
(04:21) - Redirecting Human Capital from finance
(08:42) - US Policy and Financial Incentives
(12:54) - China Meritocracy
(24:24) - Trump's Tariffs and China
(37:12) - European Defense and Security
(41:49) - US-Chin
Incels, Evo Psych, and Modern Literature with ARX-Han — #83
Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel."(00:00) - Introduction
(02:09) - Discussing the Novel 'Incel'
(06:08) - Character Analysis and Literary Influences
(13:32) - Themes of Evolutionary Psychology and Nihilism
(18:38) - Historical Context and Modern Inceldom
(26:18) - Impact of Dating Apps on Modern Relationships
(32:47) - Representation and Character Dyna
Callum Williams: Economics, AI, and Technological Progress — #82
Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives.(00:00) - Introduction
(02:07) - US-Russia Relations
(03:18) - Trump and US Foreign Policy
(05:30) - Sanctions and Their Impact on Russia
(09:28) - Economic Resilience and Sanctions Evas
Misha Laskin, Reflection.ai — From Physics to SuperIntelligence
Misha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai. He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project.https://x.com/MishaLaskinSteve and Misha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(00:47) - Misha's Early Life and Education
(03:50) -
Taylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen, Part 2
Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation. Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 Steve and Taylor discuss: (00:0
Ken Liu: Art in the Age of AI — #79
Ken Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese languag
US-PRC Tech War: DeepSeek AI and 6th Generation Fighters — #78
(00:00) - Introduction: AI, Miltech, and Balance of Power
(00:32) - DeepSeek AI R1 model
(02:36) - DeepSeek: top performance, 30x efficient compute
(10:37) - DeepSeek technical innovations
(15:38) - The AI Race: U.S. vs. China
(34:20) - Fighter Jets and Military Technology
(42:54) - Fifth to Sixth Generation Fighter Programs
(46:13) - Technology of China's 6th Generation Planes
(52:20) -
Jim Haslam: Covid Origins and Coronavirus Genetic Engineering — #77
Relevant links:Jim Haslam on X: https://x.com/jhas5Jim's Substack: https://jimhaslam.substack.com/Jim's book, "COVID-19: Mystery Solved," on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Mystery-Solved-leaked-Chinese-ebook/dp/B0DPVT9LWV?ref_=ast_author_cp_dpChapters:(00:00) - A quick note on my interview with Jim Haslam
(03:40) - Introducing Jim Haslam, author of "COVID-19: Mystery Solved"
(04:
Joscha Bach: Consciousness and AGI — #76
Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind. Links of interest:http://bach.ai/https://x.com/PlinzSteve and Joscha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:26) - Growing up in the forest in East Ge
Adventures in Physics, Trump, and more, with the Information Theory podcast — #75
This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPodInformation Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw (00:00) - Int
Pascal Lottaz: Neutrality, Geopolitics, and International Conflict — #74
Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & HakubiCenter. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history. Follow Pascal on X @PlottazPascal's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies (00:00) -
Letter from Shanghai: Reflections on China in 2024 — #73
(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China
(02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality
(06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing
(15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture
(22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite
(27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China
(33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. pol
Letter from Beijing, with Han Feizi — #72
Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking.Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/ Chapters:00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi01:39 What it's like in Beijing right no
Seeking Truth From Facts: Israel and Iran, Missile Defense, China Economic Development
This is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast. (00:00) - Iranian missile attack vs Israel and missile defense
(13:10) - Is there potential for a 1973-style oil crisis?
(21:41) - Is NATO getting tired of the proxy war in Ukraine?
(25:43) - Why has Europe declined relatively since 2008 and what are the consequences of said decline?
(30:13) - Is procyclical European
Samo Burja: Intellectuals, Culture. and the Technosphere — #70
Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores
Deus Ex Machina: A Man, Machines, and God
This is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina.I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites!Deus Ex Machina podcast:https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw…Timestamps:(00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family bac
Seeking Truth From Facts: Alf & Steve Hsu — #68
This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition.Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853Steve and Alf discuss:(00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration
(00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise
(02:22
Letter from Reykjavik: Genomics, Chess, Hyperscaling genAI, and Quantum Black Holes — #67
This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland02:04 deCODE genetics 05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik11:56 Hyperscaling genAI23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling24:26 I
Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets, the Future of Civilization, and Polymathy — #66
Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reactio
China Today: Myths and Realities — #65
Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.00:00 Introduction02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech Wa
Ivy League Anonymous: Great Awokening and Campus Radicals — #64
Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18Chapter markers:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome
(02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception
(06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom
(21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism
(35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide
(54:30) - Fu
AI Global Odyssey: REAL Situational Awareness — #63
Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.Chapters:(00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley
(01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley
(04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI
(23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications
(34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Aware
Philippe Lemoine: Bad Covid Science, Ukraine Analysis, and Philosophy — #62
Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.comPhilippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background
(00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey
(08:29) - Ph
John Seo: Catastrophe Bonds and the Investor Choice Problem — Manifold #61
Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an of
Molson Hart: China and Amazon, Up Close — #60
Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.Molso
Jaan Tallinn: AI Risks, Investments, and AGI — #59
Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, M
Glenn Luk: China’s economic evolution, GDP, and high speed rail — #58
Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.Steve and Glenn discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China
(07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy
(14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and V
Casey Handmer: Terraform Industries and a carbon-neutral future — #57
Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.March 2024: "Terraform complete
Russell Clark: Japan, China, and USD reserve status — #56
Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/Steve and Russell discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan13:25 Hong Kong and finance31:53 China property bubble48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency56:09 J
Stephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #55
Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Steve and Stephen discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calib
Ray McGovern: CIA, JFK, Deep State, and Ukraine Crisis — #54
Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the Presi
Lecture: Fermi Paradox, AI, Simulation Question — #53
Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharingFurther discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a
Utah AG Sean Reyes: “Sound of Freedom” and Human Trafficking — #52
Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement.More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_ReyesNOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL400:00 Sean Reyes’ early li
Military Technology and U.S.-China War in the Pacific — #51
TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology.Previous episodes with TP include:China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/huawe
Louis-Vincent Gave: Understanding China’s Economy, and U.S. Competition — #50
Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies.https://research.gavekal.com/Steve and Louis discuss:(00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer
(14:42) - Founding Gavekal
(23:50) - Understanding China economic growth
(32:57) - China real estate market
(42:48) - The impac
Charles Miller: Satellite Technology and the Future of Mobile Connectivity — #49
Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry.Lynk - https://lynk.world/Steve and Charles discuss: 0:00 Introduction and guest background1:27 Miller's early passion for space3:54 Evolution of commercial space6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX8:01 The challenges of early stage startups11:26 The birth of Ly
China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48
TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.0:00 Introduction2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market14:41 Buying a car in China27:05 China domina
Taylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen — #47
Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China.Follow him on X @TaylorOgan.Steve and Taylor discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits1:06:52 US-China competition
Bharat Karnad: India geostrategy, nuclear arsenal, and assassination of Homi Bhabha, the Oppenheimer of India — #46
Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security.Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists:https://bharatkarnad.com/2020
Yasheng Huang: China's Examination System and its impact on Politics, Economy, Innovation — #45
Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.Steve and Yasheng discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s15:29 Civil service exams a
Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44
TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.Steve and TP discuss:0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics28:21 Impact on Qualcomm36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for Chinasemicondu
Meritocracy, SAT Scores, and Laundering Prestige at Elite Universities — #43
Steve discusses 10 key graphs related to meritocracy and university admissions. Predictive power of SATs and other factors in elite admissions decisions. College learning outcomes - what do students learn? The four paths to elite college admission. Laundering prestige at the Ivies.Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1n-nwoeKe_DcA5tJxTwqTeZBEY7nObxkujKLxVfAzRAY/edit?usp=sharingC
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