UBS On-Air: Market Moves
UBS On-Air: Market Moves is a podcast that explores market behavior beyond the daily ticker. It features conversations designed to broaden listeners' thinking about financial markets. The show is produced by UBS's Client Strategy Office.
Episodes
Top of the Morning: CIO Equity Pulse - Monthly performance update & outlook
Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David outlines the factors behind CIO’s S&P 500 price target increases, why t
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Four billion dollars'
US Treasury Secretary Bessent declared the proposed Treasury buybacks could be four billion dollars. Bond investors seem to feel that four billion dollars is not terribly impressive. Yields rose—though a sense of proportion is helpful. This is hardly a repeat of the 1994 bond market collapse. What matters is whether the bond weakness has attracted US President Trump’s attention, triggering a polic
How should I be positioned? with Matt McLennan (First Eagle) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Matt drops by UBS Studios in New York to rejoin Jason for a wide-ranging conversation which spans the US macroeconomic environment, equity market performance, the AI capex cycle, Fed monetary policy, and market risk considerations. Plus, and exchange of views on portfolio positioning. Matt McLennan is Head of the Global Value Team, and a portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments, and is a mem
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy whack-a-mole'
The announcement that the US Treasury would “at least double” purchases of long-term US government bonds sparked a rally; 10-year yields fell to levels not seen for a whole week. Higher yields impact the US affordability crisis and debt service costs, making them a political focus. This policy is to counter the (presumably unintended) consequences for bond markets of other policies like the Gulf w
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'All about inflation'
Tensions in the Gulf continue, and crude oil futures remain over USD 90 per barrel. This has reignited some inflation concerns. The fact that consumers have shifted spending patterns in response to higher oil prices is not properly reflected in inflation calculations—and while the impact will not be dramatic, it does mean that the damage to real incomes is slightly less than inflation data suggest
Sustainable Investing Perspectives: Investing through a social lens
This month’s episode focuses on investing through a social lens, bringing together experts from UBS Global Wealth Management and Community Capital Management. Community Capital Management specializes in fixed income investments that aim to advance positive societal outcomes and have been committed to this work since its founding in 1998. Featured are Melissa Amler and Tiffany Agard from the Sust
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Back up'
The Brent benchmark oil future is back above USD 90 per barrel. The US-Iran truce covered by the “memorandum of understanding” expired yesterday and US President Trump said there is no intention to extend it. Trump also threatened to bomb Oman (again). From an investor perspective, none of this changes the current situation—Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed—but markets’ optimism b
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Holland days
We are in the home stretch of peak summer vacation season and that has translated to a calm in the markets. Economic data, however, continues to roll in with potential implications for the course of Fed monetary policy. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses these implications, along with current investor sentiment and portfolio positioning
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Growth and delays'
Japan’s preliminary second-quarter GDP data was weaker than expected—though the headline changes were exaggerated by the fiction of annualization. Consumer spending weighed on the growth rate. While international investors have been eager to see the Bank of Japan as being too late with rate increases, the data seems to support a more gradual approach.
Signal over Noise: Beware of the AI factor in your portfolio: the Illusion of diversification
AI is blurring the lines between asset classes, creating correlated exposures where portfolios may appear diversified on the surface. This episode considers the limits of asset-class diversification and explores how a more dynamic, scenario-based approach can offer a clearer view of portfolio risk and help investors build more resilient portfolios.
How should I be positioned? with Richard Bernstein (Janus Henderson) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Rich rejoins for a wide-ranging conversation with Jason that covers equity valuations, Q2 earnings reflections, Fed monetary policy, the US macroeconomic environment, and more. Plus, thoughts on portfolio positioning through year-end. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro and Customized Invest
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Spin and substance'
July US producer price data did nothing to change economists’ outlook for the Federal Reserve. Lettuce prices collapsed 72% from the previous month—this follows a health scare and a demand drop, and is unlikely to be touted as an example of disinflation by the administration.
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 70)
Following another busy week of corporate earnings releases and equities reaching all-time-highs, Burkhard weighs equity valuations, whether the data-center boom is sustainable, the longevity of productivity momentum, along with where the global race for AI dominance stands today.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'After the data'
The July US consumer price inflation data was as expected. This allowed headline writers to wax lyrical about “easing pressures on the US Federal Reserve”. Economists are not rushing to change views—the economic consensus is very clearly for unchanged US rates this year. Non-oil price pressures still seem benign, but this print was flattered by fewer gasoline price increases that will be evident i
Talking Markets Podcast - Muni Market Mid-Year Check-up with Eric Kazatzky of MacKay Shields
Eric Kazatzky is a Managing Director and Client Portfolio Manager at MacKay Shields (an affiliate of New York Life Investment Management). As we’re just past the mid-way point of the year, Eric outlines YTD muni market performance, and shares a year-end performance outlook. We cover the outperformance of Revenue Bonds, whether opportunity still exists in the 12-22-year portion of the yield curve
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rolling the inflation dice'
Today's US July consumer price inflation data will be less precise than in the past. There are more gaps in the data, and those gaps are filled by (educated) guesswork. Blunting consumer price precision will not impact markets however—investors are straining to second-guess what the Federal Reserve will do with policy. The reaction to a single weaker employment report shows the potency of any
Top of the Morning: Hedge Funds - Themes, performance update & outlook
Dan and Sean drop by for a hedge fund performance update and outlook. We discuss the year-to-date evolution of risk and capital deployment, common themes observed in hedge fund books, along with strategies to consider in the current environment. Featured are Dan Scansaroli, Head of Global Investment Management Multi-Asset Solutions & Co-Head Investment Management Americas, & Sean Sanborn
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Oil bubbles up again'
The crude oil price is creeping toward USD 90 per barrel. US President Trump responded to Iran’s demands for reparations by demanding Iran pay reparations—this is not the sort of concession the US will be required to make to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It is too soon for the recent rise in crude oil to show up in US retail gasoline prices, so domestic political pressures have probably not yet pea
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Market drivers
There are no signs of a summer slowdown for equity, bond, and forex markets as factors such as corporate earnings, economic data, AI developments, and policy news continue to drive notable market movement. Jason drops by to assess these market drivers, what it all means for the investment outlook, and shares CIO’s current investment recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocat
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Phoebe White (UBS Group Research) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
A wide-ranging conversation on the current rate environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the landscape for broader fixed income investing. Featured are Phoebe White, Head of US Rates Strategy at UBS Group Research, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Another (downward) inflation surprise'
China’s July consumer and producer price inflation were lower than expected. China’s domestic prices have a weak relationship with export prices, and China's export prices have a weak relationship with global inflation. The price declines were attributed to energy and tourism services. However, this is another economy where inflation has been lower than consensus. Possibly the consensus is bei
Signal over Noise: AI's impact on the economy, Fed policy, and portfolio allocation
The scale of the AI buildout is extending its effects beyond the technology sector and equity markets to the broader economy. This episode explores what the investment surge could mean for productivity, growth, inflation, and interest rates, and how investors can balance exposure to AI beneficiaries with assets resilient to its broader macroeconomic effects.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trading into consumer demand'
China’s July export data was somewhat stronger than expected. The big three electrification exports have collectively been important to export growth. China’s exports to the US are steady around pre-pandemic levels (using China’s data, which is probably a better reflection of trade trends). German June exports were stronger than expected and (of course) past data was revised stronger.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'What economists do not know'
Today is the release of everything economists do not understand about the US economy—otherwise known as second quarter productivity. Productivity has assumed mythical status as people search for AI benefits. While technology should improve a company’s or sector’s productivity, its macro impact is less certain as people move into less productive jobs. Some productivity gains will not be counted—my
Credit Investments Group Quarterly Spotlight with UBS Asset Management
Michael Adelman and Matt Iannuci, along with Eileen Liu, Head of US Client Portfolio Management, join to discuss recent market developments within high yield bonds and broader credit markets.
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 69)
As global equity markets set new all-time-highs and show signs of recovery from July indigestion, Burkhard outlines the factors that are driving current investor sentiment. We also cover the currency intervention by the US Fed and Bank of Japan. Plus, a market tie-in to Sysiphus, the hero of the ancient Greek-saga “A happy man”.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Stimulus and redistribution'
Oil prices are down and the optimism bias is up. There are hopes for an Iran-Oman settlement on post-war control of the Strait of Hormuz. This would probably mean tolls eventually (probably branded a “tariff” or an “environmental charge” according to political bias). A toll would be economically negligible. Iran cementing control of the Strait has implications for insurance, supply chain security,
Talking Markets Podcast Series (Preferreds) with Doug Baker (Nuveen) & Frank Sileo (UBS CIO)
Doug Baker is a Portfolio Manager for Nuveen’s global fixed income team. Doug joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The politics of price expectations'
US Michigan consumer sentiment data is a weak economic signal. It does have political punch, via the inflation expectations measure. Consumers focus on the price of frequent purchases (food and fuel), and tend to fixate on the price level. Most consumers will have a “fair” price in mind as a reference, and for gasoline prices that is probably around USD 2.50 per US gallon. Gasoline remains well ab
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Assertions and indifference'
US President Trump asserted that talks with Iran are ongoing. Iran asserted that talks with the US are not happening. Markets tend to react if Trump has the authority to back statements—threatening military strikes is partially priced in, raising oil prices; retreating from military strikes lowers the oil price. But markets are less inclined to respond to Trump’s other statements without independe
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Prices and productivity'
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh testified to Congress—at times sounding like a Bundesbank member, with a vehement denunciation of inflation. Warsh was keen to say the Fed was solely responsible for inflation—that is challenged by Fed research ascribing roughly 1ppt of last year’s inflation to US tariffs. Warsh also displayed a troubling fascination with the productivity pixie of artificial intelligenc
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Matt Brill (Invesco) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
A wide-ranging conversation on the landscape for broader fixed income investing and credit markets, including performance drivers, risk considerations, and what’s important for investors to focus on. Featured are Matt Brill, Head of North America Investment Grade Credit and Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Back on the see-saw'
Oil prices moved to the lows of last Tuesday after a flurry of activity over the weekend. US President Trump called off military strikes against Iran—markets had not priced in military strikes anyway. An oil tanker then appeared to have been attacked near Oman. Trump then said talks with Iran would resume. Markets netted out these events and the optimism bias returned.
Signal over Noise: AI trade at a crossroads—how to position for volatility ahead
AI capabilities are advancing rapidly, supporting long-term demand for intelligence, but the path from innovation to deployment is becoming more uneven. This episode explores how bottlenecks in permitting, power, supply chains, and enterprise adoption could shape returns in the AI value chain, and where investors may find the most durable opportunities in applications and enabling infrastructure.
Washington Weekly Podcast: Geopolitical & Capitol Hill round-up
As the US-Iran conflict widens across the region, Shane updates on this week’s developments and how the conflict could evolve over the near-term. We also discuss what remains for the US Senate to address ahead of the planned summer recess, and whether lawmakers may remain in Washington DC to work through the legislative agenda. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Go
Top of the Morning: The evolution of Emerging Markets
A look at the factors behind the outperformance of emerging market assets over the past year, along with how the rise of AI and semiconductors has changed the nature of the emerging markets asset class. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How to conduct monetary policy'
Japan’s Ministry of Finance seemingly intervened in foreign exchange markets in defense of the yen. Such attempts to prop up a currency’s level only work in the long term if the weakness was caused by speculation, or if the temporary respite is used to correct the fundamental economic drivers of the weakness. This may have been more about the pace of weakness than any specific level.
Top of the Morning: FOMC - Warsh signals a period of watchful thinking
Andrew drops by the studio for an assessment of this week’s July FOMC meeting statement, and Q&A session with Chairman Kevin Warsh. We also discuss the factors behind the market response on Wednesday afternoon, along with CIO’s expectations for monetary policy into year-end, and beyond. Featured is Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'What was Warsh thinking?'
The Federal Reserve left interest rates (and the accompanying policy “statement”) unchanged yesterday. Fed Chair Warsh appeared to try and speak to several audiences. US President Trump was told inflation was the fault of the Fed but would come down. Households were told not to assume the Fed would allow higher inflation (most US households do not know the Fed’s job is to control inflation). And m
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 68)
Burkhard drops by to share his thoughts on the pattern with oil prices and the US-Iran conflict, how this week’s FOMC meeting outcome could set the tone for market direction in the second-half of the year, and whether the investor rotation in equities has further room to run.
How should I be positioned? with Dan Ivascyn (PIMCO) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Dan rejoins the conversation with Jason to exchange thoughts on how to approach asset allocation in today’s market and macro environment. We also spend time weighing potential directions for US monetary policy, along with geopolitical considerations, and factors that could impact fixed income return throughout the second-half of the year. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americ
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Precious opinions'
Iran’s missile strikes against US Gulf military bases pushed oil prices modestly higher. It is a reminder of the challenge for investors—Iranians are clearly setting the agenda in the Gulf war, and investors do not know how to analyze the motives of the Iranian military. This constrains investors’ ability to price in plausible scenarios, and leaves little other than the default optimism bias to in
CIO Fixed Income Roundtable Podcast Series - 3Q26 update and outlook
Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Letty Zemaitis, Frank Sileo, Sudip Mukherjee & Sangeeta Marfatia, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.
Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book Q3 update
A quarterly check-up on the US macroeconomic environment, including consumer spending trends, the condition of the labor market, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the current landscape for deal-making. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Another convulsion'
Technology equities are having one of their periodic convulsions—without any obvious economic driver. The South Korean market is at levels last seen in April. This underscores the speed of technology equities’ rise; that speed limits the correction’s economic consequences. Households are still likely to spend—cash stockpiles and the ability to reduce how much income has been saved, more than equit
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Midsummer market assessment
As we approach the middle of the summer, investors continue to deal with a number of pesky market risks, including the prospect of the Fed hiking rates, a resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, a new wave of tariffs, and ongoing concerns about AI capex spending. Yet through all of that the S&P 500 has been relatively steady. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the
Philanthropy in Action: How Giving Brings Families Together
In this episode of UBS On-Air, host Isaac Chota, Product Manager for Donor-Advised Funds at UBS, is joined by Michael Wilson from National Philanthropic Trust. Together, they explore how philanthropy can strengthen family bonds across generations and help families align their wealth with their values. Michael shares personal stories and practical insights on making charitable giving a meaningful p
Signal over Noise: The open model AI ripple—What it means for investing in the AI value chain
July has brought a powerful wave of new open AI models, highlighting how quickly the market is moving beyond reliance on a small group of closed frontier systems.July has brought a powerful wave of new open AI models, highlighting how quickly the market is moving beyond reliance on a small group of closed frontier systems. This episode explores what that shift means across the AI value chain—from
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Oil’s tariff playbook'
The policy pattern of the trade war is echoed in the policy pattern of the ongoing Gulf war. In 2025, US threats over tariffs provoked market reactions, leading to a policy retreat in the face of those reactions. Escalating Gulf violence pushed oil prices over USD100/barrel, leading to a policy shift by the US. The risk with this process is that as investors anticipate a policy retreat, the market
Top of the Morning: Fixed Income - Resilience, recalibration, and remedies
Leslie joins to spotlight recent market conditions and how they have impacted the repricing and recalibration of fixed income assets. We also reflect on the hawkish commentary delivered from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh during his first press conference, and what will the Fed be focused on through year-end. Plus, a second-half fixed income market outlook, and a review of positioning recommendations.
Washington Weekly Podcast: Budget resolution, Crypto bill, Government funding deadline
Shane drops by for a timely update on a variety of topics as it relates to Capitol Hill, including where Congress stands on passing a budget resolution for defense and farm aid, a potential vote on bi-partisan crypto legislation, and efforts to avoid another government shutdown. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host Daniel Cassidy
Top of the Morning: Commodities - From investment rationale to portfolio reality
As investor interest in commodities has reached a multi-year high, Asset Allocation Strategist, Ian Spencer, joins to review commodity basics, evaluates various investment rationales for adding commodities to a portfolio, explores portfolio construction considerations including allocation size and funding approaches, and summarizes investment recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 67)
As the summer season continues, Burkhard shares his thoughts on recent trends across global equity markets by outlining the factors behind volatility and what might support a recovery. Plus, some takeaways from a recent visit to Qatar as the US-Iran conflict persists and oil is once again on the rise. We conclude with some final thoughts on the World Cup and the tournament’s outcome this past we
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The return of the armchair generals'
Iran struck tankers attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, potentially undermining shipowners’ confidence in US protection. The Houthi struck at tankers in the Red Sea—this has always been a key area of vulnerability. Investors are likely to look for US conciliation as a de-escalation signal, and absent that have pushed oil prices higher.
Top of the Morning: Municipal Market - Looking good at halftime
Following the outperformance of munis during 1H26 relative to other US fixed income assets, Sudip and Jeannine join to share performance expectations for the balance of the year, and share how to think about positioning. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassi
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Tariff time?'
Inside Washington DC the current focus seems to be trade tariffs, although the affordability crisis continues to be the focus in the wider economy. US President Trump suggested US consumers of imported generic pharmaceuticals would have to pay a 100% tariff from August 2027, and 200% from August 2029. The US has notably higher health care costs relative to developed European economies, and such a
House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management
Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 15.07.26
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Sound and fury'
US President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on US importers of products from Canada, without exempting products covered by the latest iteration of the NAFTA trade deal. If implemented, the tax would probably push up US consumer prices quite quickly. However, markets offered a muted response—the Canadian dollar and US inflation-linked bonds remaining relatively calm. Investors seem incline
Top of the Morning: The AI Economy - A roadmap
As investors now operate within the AI economy, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas and Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, join to share a framework on how to navigate it. We also discuss how to assess the economic impacts of AI, along with a look at portfolio construction through an AI lens. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Signal over Noise: Why the semiconductor pullback does not mean an AI glut
Semiconductors have seen a drop over the past month, raising the question of whether markets are starting to price in a real AI glut or simply reassessing a powerful rally. This episode explores why AI demand may prove more resilient than the recent sell-off suggests, where the real constraints are emerging across the infrastructure stack, and what that could mean for semiconductor stocks from her
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More violence, same response'
Violence has reignited in the Gulf, with Iran firing ballistic missiles at US military bases. Crude oil futures responded; Brent rose to over USD 90 per barrel. Of more political focus, Saturday’s US gasoline prices averaged almost USD 4 per US gallon. The geopolitical focus is whether the Red Sea route (taking about 7% of global oil supply) is attacked by Iranian allies.
Washington Weekly Podcast: SCOTUS testimony, Confirmation hearings, US-Iran
Following a busy week up on Capitol Hill, Shane reflects on the testimonies of Supreme Court Justices Elena Kagan and Amy Coney Barrett before the House Appropriations Committee, along with the Senate confirmation hearings of three Trump administrations nominees. Plus, an update on the US-Iran conflict as military strikes remain ongoing. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs A
Top of the Morning: CIO Equity Pulse - Monthly performance update & outlook
Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David updates on the three bull market growth drivers, shares expectations for th
Across the Pond: From conflict to compromise - What a Middle East deal could mean for markets
Hostilities in the Middle East have flared up again, disrupting shipping and renewing concerns about energy prices, inflation, and global growth. But both the US and Iran still have powerful economic and political incentives to avoid a return to all-out war. Why does diplomacy remain the most likely endgame - and what could a lasting agreement mean for investors? In the latest episode of Across th
Top of the Morning: Life insurance as part of a broader legacy plan
Traditional IRAs can be powerful retirement savings vehicles, but they may not always be the most tax-efficient asset for beneficiaries to inherit. Ainsley Carbone and Justin Waring join to discuss one strategy that may help address that challenge - using IRA distributions to fund life insurance as part of a broader legacy plan. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Top of the Morning: Summer rally setup for preferreds
Frank drops by for a performance update and outlook for the preferreds market, including a look at positioning considerations and recommendations, and what to be mindful of when it comes to the interest rate environment. Featured is Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Free or fee'
US President Trump had declared the Strait of Hormuz open for free. Now Trump has declared it open for a 20% fee. Shipping data suggests there was less-than-universal belief in free safe passage through Hormuz on Monday. It is unlikely ships will go full steam ahead to take the same risks while paying a high tax. A 20% fee would be about 15 times the mooted Iranian charge, and (as a proportionate
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Summer check-up
Jason rejoins to weigh in on recent market activity and drivers, spanning geopolitics, to the Fed, to macro data. Plus, thoughts on this week’s key inflation data, Congressional testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the beginning of the Q2 corporate earnings season, and more. We end with guidance around portfolio positioning in consideration of all these factors. Featured is Jason Draho, Head o
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Here we go again'
The US declared the Strait of Hormuz open. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Investors have responded with a muted reaction. Oil prices are up, but not in an economically meaningful way. Shipping traffic volumes seem to give more credibility to the Iranian version, but investors’ optimism bias remains. There is an assumption that the political pain of gasoline prices in the US (which have
Signal over Noise: Beyond the IPO: Five signals of long-term success
This episode explores what drives the variation in IPO performance. Drawing on 45 years of post-IPO data, it examines what separates the small group of major wealth-creating IPOs from the average new listing, which often disappoints. It highlights five signals that have historically helped identify stronger performers and considers how these characteristics can help investors assess where long-ter
Washington Weekly Podcast: US-Iran, NATO summit, Congress
Shane drops by for a timely update on renewed strikes between the US and Iran, and how the conflict might evolve from here. We also touch on takeaways from this week’s annual NATO summit, and look at where Congress stands on the SAVE America Act. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Could go up, could go down'
Fresh US-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices higher, to levels experienced when the memorandum of misunderstanding was signed (10% above pre-war levels). Markets question the strength of the US position, allowing the optimism bias to cling on. Global behavior adapted during the war, mitigating the economic damage of renewed hostilities.
Across the Pond: UK politics in flux
The UK is once again in the spotlight, with another leadership transition as Keir Starmer steps down less than two years after winning a substantial majority and Andy Burnham emerges as the clear frontrunner. But with this being the seventh prime minister in a decade, questions are mounting about what’s driving this constant leadership turnover, how Brexit continues to shape the party system, and
Top of the Morning: Legislative roundup, Midterm elections, & America 250
Kurt and Shane rejoin for a timely roundup of DC-related topics, including an inventory of legislative focuses of Congress (including a look at what may be achieved ahead of the summer recess), potential outcome scenarios of the US midterm elections in November (and what the markets are focusing on). Plus, reflections America 250 celebrations and American innovations over the course of its 250-ye
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More misunderstandings'
US attacks on Iran follow from Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping. It is not a great look for the memorandum of misunderstanding. Oil futures prices rose—to levels not seen for two weeks. A stronger reaction has been avoided, perhaps because of how investors view US President Trump’s political position. US retail gasoline prices remain well above pre-war levels, and it is the pre-war lev
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 66)
Fresh off summer holiday travels across Nordic countries, Burkhard rejoins the podcast to reflect on his experiences, and weighs in on the condition of the region’s economies and markets. Plus, as the World Cup tournament rolls on, Burkhard shares thoughts on what athletes can teach leaders and investors.
Top of the Morning: US Financials - Stress test results & earnings preview
Jeff and Barry join to provide reflections and takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s 2026 annual stress test results for US banks and financial institutions (through an equity and credit lens). Plus, a preview of the upcoming corporate earnings season for US financials. Featured are Jeff Harwood, Financials Equity Strategist Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas,
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Political interference'
Politics can influence which economic data is considered important. Today’s US trade data is not economically significant, but in the trade tariff era it has assumed political importance. US exports should benefit from oil trade, but US consumers’ thirst for imports remains unquenched. This may feed into the tariff debate.
Talking Markets Podcast with Bill Sterling of GW&K Investment Management
Bill Sterling serves as Global Strategist at GW&K Investment Management. Bill shares his thoughts on a range of factors top of mind for investors and that are influencing market momentum as we have reached the midpoint of 2026. We also cover a market outlook, and touch on positioning preferences. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Top of the Morning: 250 years of US innovation: Capital Markets
The Buttonwood tree, under which New York stockbrokers gathered in 1792, symbolizes the origin of a market that would expand far beyond its modest beginnings and eventually become part of a global financial system centered on the US dollar and shaped at Bretton Woods. Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas form UBS Chief Investment Office, explains the evolution and global impact
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