UBS On-Air: Market Moves
UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior.
Episodes
Washington Weekly Podcast: US-Iran, US trade policy, FISA, & Secure America Act
Shane drops by to update on the latest surrounding a potential deal signing over the weekend to end the US-Iran conflict, along with updates on recent legislative developments spanning the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and Secure America Act. Plus, a look a renewed efforts from the Trump administration to enact new tariffs. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Carrying on, without keeping calm'
The expected error from the ECB was accompanied by rhetoric citing concerns about oil price pressures broadening throughout the Eurozone economy. There is no evidence of this reported broadening—non-oil prices should be expected to pass on oil-related costs, and only a wage-spiral or profit-led inflation would constitute a broadening of inflation pressures. These are notable by their absence. None
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How bad is the ECB error?'
The ECB is almost certain to commit a policy mistake today. Raising rates will not change Eurozone inflation or inflation expectations. This policy is stuck in an unhelpful 2022 mindset. Consumers will continue to reduce savings rates to pay for higher oil prices. The main consequence of today’s error is to increase fragility in the economy, rather than doing more serious damage.
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 65)
On this episode of Viewpoints, with the commencement of the World Cup tournament just days away, Burkhard outlines the economics of soccer and the highly anticipated event. We also touch on the direction of interest rates, and the prospects for newly minted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh having to begin his term with a rate-hike, rather than a rate-cut.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation bonanza'
May US headline consumer price inflation is expected to rise as the price of the Iran war is being passed through relatively quickly to consumers. A supply shock might have a delayed effect (with profit margins being squeezed), but the very visible cause of price increases and the precedents of the pandemic supply shocks and tariffs make it easier for firms to pass on higher costs without delay (l
House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management
Join Jeff Hans, Senior Portfolio Manager for the House View Equity Portfolios with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update and outlook for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 27.05.26
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade time'
China’s May exports were stronger than expected, with the seemingly insatiable demand of companies wanting to play with the nice shiny new toy of AI. Export data to the US was flattered by comparison to the volatility around US tariff announcements last year. Recent months have also shown strength in exports of the electrification big three—solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles.
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Sentiment drivers
The string of nine consecutive positive weekly returns for the S&P 500 ended last week, with Friday being one of the worst days all year after the release of the May jobs report. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to discuss the jobs data, the market response, and what it means for the investment outlook. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Market moves more than economic shifts'
Bond and equity markets have weakened in Asian trading. There seems to be no single cause, rather a general sense of increasing risk. Economically, the drop in equities is not that significant—in theory, there might be negative wealth effects, but this is too small a move and most consumers have been relying on lowering savings rates, not equity liquidation to finance their consumption.
Signal over Noise: Playing offense and defense through healthcare
Health care has not seen the same stock market traction as AI and power and resources over the past year, but continues to serve as a key ingredient to a diversified portfolio and a source of stability. This episode explores how the sector is not just a defensive play, with the pharma industry moving toward innovation-driven growth led by GLP-1 drugs. At the same time, advances in artificial intel
Washington Weekly Podcast: Primary elections, Legislative agenda, Geopolitics
Shane drops by to recap this week’s primary election outcomes, and shares thoughts on potential outcome scenarios for the November mid-term elections. Plus, a review of Congressional legislative priorities over the next few months, and an update on where negotiations stand to end the US-Iran war. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Da
Top of the Morning: May Jobs Report takeaways
Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by on this jobs Friday to reflect on the May employment report and the overall health of the US labor market. Plus, a preview of next week’s May inflation data, and thoughts on what the inflationary environment could look like in the second half of the year. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Why work matters'
The US employment report adds a rather unreliable narrative to the US labor market data. Expectations are for a dull report, with an unchanged unemployment rate and a sub-100,000 non-farm payrolls number. However, the range of estimates is particularly scattered. When job creation is this weak, the composition of the workforce may distort the average hourly earnings data without saying anything ab
Across the Pond: Europe’s overlooked innovators
Europe is often associated with weaker growth, energy shocks, and geopolitical pressure. But beneath the surface, some of the region’s leading companies are telling a very different story - one of resilience, adaptation, and innovation. In this episode of Across the Pond, hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters are joined by Rolf Ganter, Head of European Equities, to discuss what is driving th
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Uncertain times'
The Federal Reserve Beige Book’s summary of economic anecdote mentioned “uncertain” and “uncertainty” no fewer than 50 times this month (before tariffs were announced). That is below the uncertainty peak that followed last year’s tariffs, but well above the 14 mentions in May 2024. Uncertainty has a paralyzing effect on business decisions—and the risk is that uncertainty endures.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'They’re back'
US President Trump is proposing new tariffs—an additional 10% for US consumers of goods from most major economies. Someone in the administration seems to be aware that tariffing high frequency purchases aggravates inflation perceptions and the affordability crisis, and some key food items are exempted.
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 64)
On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on recent market performance and the momentum of equities, along with the impact of inflation concerns to bond market activity. Plus, some observations and takeaways from the UBS Global Family Office report.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'War and trade war costs'
Another day, another round of Gulf war stories—the latest originated from semi-official Iranian sources, so markets took them more seriously. Iran’s apparent suspension of negotiations with the US prompted US President Trump to attempt a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Market opinions differ as to the terms and effectiveness of this.
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - What’s driving market performance?
June has commenced and summer is just around the corner. US equities however have not waited for summer to heat up, as the S&P 500 last week completed its ninth straight positive week. There exists however concern that this rally is overdone and at risk of a pullback. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, reflects on current market conditions, drivers and provides an investment ou
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Managing a “no deal” world'
Oil prices have edged higher on the lack of any discernible progress toward an Iran-US agreement. As with reports of an imminent deal last week, the reaction is muted. A jaded cynicism has come over investors, and in the absence of a definite statement from Iran there is a tendency to downplay comments from the US administration.
Signal over Noise: What history tells us about the next market leaders
Every technology shift redraws the market leaderboard. From mainframe to PC, to internet and mobile, history shows it is not only about what stocks to own, but also what stocks not to own. Incumbents rarely win the next era, while profits shift to platforms and networks built on top of the hardware layer. In AI, companies fastest to reach platform mode, combining intelligence and application layer
Talking Markets Podcast (Gold) with Aakash Doshi of State Street Investment Management
Aakash Doshi, Head of Gold Strategy at State Street Investment Management, drops by the Talking Markets Podcast to outline the investment case for gold against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. Aakash weighs in on price volatility, how he sees gold demand evolving, and how the structural factors that supported the gold market run in recent years have been impacted by recent geopolitical ris
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Extending the “ceasefire”'
Energy markets gave a cautious response to reports the US and Iran may extend the terms of the “ceasefire”. Key approvals are missing—US President Trump wishes to think about it, which will take a couple of days. Market caution also reflects the more muted tone from the Iranian side. Energy markets need to consider a post-war environment—how quickly production normalizes, what damage must be repai
Talking Markets Podcast (AI Tech Tour takeaways) with Tony Kim of BlackRock
Tony Kim, Head of the Global Technology Team within the Fundamental Equities division of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, drops by the Talking Markets Podcast to reflect on a recent two-week Asia Tech Tour, where he met with over 40 companies across the AI stack. Tony shares what stood out most from those conversations, and shares how he is framing the opportunity and timing for another em
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Firing, not ceasing'
In the past day, the US fired on Iran, Iran fired on Kuwait, Israel fired on Lebanon, US President Trump threatened to “blow up” Oman. The US administration says the ceasefire (sic) is holding. Market reactions have been negative but muted. Investors are eyeing US domestic political pressures as grounds for expecting a resolution, in spite of Trump’s denials. Trump’s approval rating hit a new low
CIO Fixed Income Roundtable Podcast Series - 2Q26 update and outlook
Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists Letty Zemaitis, Frank Sileo, Sudip Mukherjee & Barry McAlinden, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Idle speculation'
The embarrassing lack of economic information leaves markets prey to idle speculation, rather than the pure and objective guidance that economists can offer. Yesterday’s exchange of fire between Iran and the US has not had a major market impact—it fits with Iran’s narrative on negotiations (which is what markets have priced), and keeps the optimism bias more or less intact.
Top of the Morning: CIO Equity Pulse - Monthly performance update & outlook
Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David explains CIO’s continued positive outlook for US equities, along with updat
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Looking for consequences'
US air strikes against Iran seem to confirm the Iranian view of negotiations to end the war. Investors had tended to focus on Iran’s perspective rather than the view set out in US President Trump’s social media posts, so the strikes have generated only a muted market response.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The bias to optimism reasserts itself'
Iran confirmed progress in talks with the US, lending credibility to US President Trump’s weekend social media posts. A deal still seems some way off, but progress is enough to fuel markets’ inherent bias to optimism and oil prices have fallen. Reopening Hormuz would not return oil prices to pre-war levels. However, the impact of any Iranian tariff on tankers using the strait (probably around USD
How should I be positioned? with Joe Davis (Vanguard) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Joe Davis is the Global Chief Economist and Global Head of the Investment Strategy Group at Vanguard. Joe joined Jason Draho, UBS CIO Head of Asset Allocation Americas, at the 1285 podcast studio to exchange views on a range of topics, including how the current geopolitical landscape is impacting markets, the road ahead for monetary policy, how artificial intelligence is shaping innovation and th
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Sense or sentimentality?'
UK consumer sentiment improved on the latest reading; but since the financial crisis, sentiment and reality have not been too closely aligned. UK April retail sales were weaker, with a more-than-10% decline in auto fuel sales leading the weakness. UK consumers have options (walking, public transport, flexible working) that can slow fuel consumption when prices rise.
Sustainable Investing Perspectives: Investing with a gender-lens
Tiffany Agard, Strategist on the UBS Global Investment Management Sustainable and Impact investing team is joined by Preeti Sayana, Portfolio Manager with Fidelity Investments, for a discussion around advances in gender-lens investing, opportunities to advance gender equality, and how to leverage your investments as a means for achieving that advancement - referencing the 2026 Gender-lens investme
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trickle or treat?'
News that Iran has allowed some ships to cross the Strait of Hormuz encouraged a modest drop in the oil price. The volume of oil exiting the Gulf is a fraction of pre-war levels, but allowing some flow might diminish physical shortages. Assuming Iran benefits economically, it also lessens pressures on Iran to deal with the US. In terms of the Wile E. Coyote trajectory, this implies the economy is
Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Unified government at a crossroads
As the US midterm elections draw closer, Kurt and Shane drop by to outline potential Election Day outcome scenarios, as well as the policy and market implications of them. Plus, we reflect on the recent summit in Beijing between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, along with the geopolitical and economic implications of the ongoing US-Iran War. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Incom
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Capping inflation'
Bond markets remain nervous about the Iran war (which potentially impacts inflation and fiscal deficits). Investors hope that market angst might encourage a US policy shift, as it did with tariffs. However, (at the time), tariffs were under US President Trump’s direct control and could be changed on a whim. Middle Eastern politics is a little more complex.
House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management
Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 29.04.26
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Markets’ cynicism premium'
US President Trump declared that the US delayed attacking Iran because talks are going so well. Markets have been cautious in response. Equities failed to rally, because no attack is the status quo; and if investors have learned one thing about Axios reports of a deal, it is that these are historically a great reverse indicator. Oil prices did stop rising, perhaps reflecting a belief that this rei
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Policy puts vs. errors
Higher inflation and rates are near-term challenges. Policy-makers may respond by either exercising their policy "puts" or by making policy errors, both of which would impact near-term market performance. With the unofficial start of summer beginning this coming weekend, a question that investors may be asking is whether they should sell in May before they go away. Featured is Jason Drah
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'MORE MARKET ANGST'
Markets are unsettled by a fire at an Emirati nuclear power plant, caused by an unidentified drone. US President Trump posted on social media about Iran using capital letters, and Iranian media are clear that Iran does not see an imminent US deal. Oil prices are still well below levels required to match supply and demand (without using reserves). Separately, media reports progress on a UK trade de
Signal over Noise: Will higher rates derail the equity rally?
After a week marked by rising bond yields and a steepening US yield curve, markets are weighing whether higher rates are a true signal or just noise for equities. We discuss why, despite the move in rates, the US equity bull market remains supported by strong global government spending, resilient consumer spending, and continued corporate investment in areas like AI. History shows that equity mark
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Adam Bloch (Guggenheim) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Adam Bloch, Portfolio Manager with Guggenheim Investments, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Saying stability without substance'
The China-US summit concluded. Much increasingly scarce jet fuel has been burned to produce nothing of real substance. China’s President Xi declared an agreement to keep trade ties stable. The two sides were unlikely to agree to anything different (no one would announce unstable trade ties). Stability is not a word that is normally associated with US trade policy over the past 15 months, lessening
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Resilience—economics 1, politics 0'
UK first quarter GDP was stronger than expected, led by the consumer. As elsewhere, consumers have reduced savings rates to afford higher oil prices. UK consumers can also adjust oil demand via flexible working and online retail. Politics is overshadowing economics, with a possible challenge to Prime Minister Starmer. Former deputy Labour leader Rayner was cleared of tax wrongdoing, increasing the
Credit Snapshot with UBS Asset Management
John Popp, Global Head and CIO, David Mechlin, Head of Liquid Credit, and Eileen Liu, Head of US Client Portfolio Management, discuss recent market developments within broadly syndicated loans, high yield bonds, and CLOs. Recorded on 04.22.2026
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Beefing about prices'
US April consumer price inflation was slightly higher than expected—but with of the data being guesswork, and rising fictitious owner’s equivalent rent, it is unwise to overemphasize that. The details do raise political concerns. Since US President Trump took office, coffee prices have risen 24%, beef over 19%, gasoline over 19%, and vegetables 10.5%. These are price increases that consumers notic
Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Q2 update
Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to share highlights from the latest CEO Macro Briefing Book - Paul covers how the landscape for dealmaking and economic environment have evolved in recent months, touches on how business owners should think about the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, along with the road ahead for monetary policy.
Talking Markets Podcast with Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management
Brian Mulberry serves as Chief Market Strategist a Zacks Investment Management. Brian shares his thoughts on a range of factors top of mind for investors and that are influencing market momentum, including geopolitics, energy prices, Fed monetary policy, Q1 earnings results, and more. Plus, Brian shares his views on equity positioning, and the resilience we’ve seen in equity markets. Host: Dani
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The political costs of affordability'
In 1972, US President Nixon focused on the electoral risks of rising hamburger meat prices, ultimately imposing government control of wages and prices. Yesterday, US President Trump signaled concern about today’s US affordability crisis, signing executive orders attempting to lower beef prices (up over 16% since January 2025). Trump also urged temporarily ending the federal gasoline tax—that woul
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Resilient or Roaring 2020s?
As we’re approaching the two-thirds point of the decade, Jason’s starting to think about the finance word of the 2020s - Resilient or Roaring. Plus, reflections on the positive equity market momentum, the health of the U.S. economy, and a review of CIO’s key messages around portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Dani
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Accepting the totally unacceptable'
Last week’s Axios newswire report that Iran and the US were “moving towards” a deal have (again) proved to be less than accurate. US President Trump declared Iran’s response to US peace overtures to be “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE”. The basic problem for markets remains—reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on Iran, there is little information about the Iranian government’s position, and information fro
Signal over Noise: The case for active investing
After a decade of mega cap dominance reinforced by passive investing, individual stock moves are now much larger than the index and correlations have dropped to near their lowest since 2018. We discuss why it’s now time for active investing versus the passive investing that has dominated the prior decade, and how our transformational innovation opportunities like AI, power and resources, and longe
Top of the Morning: How to manage a 401(k) left at a former employer
After leaving a job, there are options for managing the assets in a former employer's retirement plan. In this episode, we outline those options, including rolling the assets into another retirement plan or an individual retirement account (IRA). Featured are Justin Waring, Head UBS Wealth Way Strategy & Solutions, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist with the UBS Chief Investment
Top of the Morning: US macro: FAQs to forecasts - AI adoption, Consumption, & Rates
Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist, joins to highlight his new monthly report US macro: FAQs to forecasts - 10 frequently asked questions as it relates to the US economy. This month we discuss where AI effects are showing up in labor data, the status of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax cuts, and what the Fed is watching for that could set up further rate cuts. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Firing amidst a ceasefire'
Iran launched attacks against US naval vessels, and the United Arab Emirates. The US launched airstrikes against Iran. The Washington Post reports the US CIA believes Iran’s government can avoid additional economic hardship for several months, and that Iran still holds substantial stocks of missiles and launchers. This suggests less pressure on Iran to do a deal with the US—implying the US must co
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 63)
On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the US-China relationship ahead of next week’s summit in Beijing, the Strait of Hormuz closure and its impact to global energy prices, and what this all means for broader global markets and investor sentiment.
Top of the Morning: Emerging market equities - New drivers, new risks, and what to watch next
Emerging market equities have come a long way, evolving from commodity-driven high-beta plays to a dynamic mix of tech, AI, and regional growth stories. In this episode, we break down what’s powering EM returns today, the rise of North Asia’s tech giants, the shifting role of commodities, and why diversification matters more than ever. We also spotlight the key catalysts to watch in the months a
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Markets still want to believe'
Axios newswires reported the US and Iran “closing in on a deal”. Axios published similar reports on 15 April, 17 April, and 26 April. Markets want to believe, and blind faith drives pricing at the moment. The shape of the current war is largely in Iran’s hands. Investors have few insights into Iranian policy making.
Top of the Morning: Are emerging markets becoming less volatile than developed markets?
For decades, emerging markets have been seen as the riskier part of portfolios. We discuss what has changed, and why markets are suddenly challenging that assumption now. Plus, we highlight how investors should consider using emerging market equities, bonds, and currencies in portfolios going forward. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief
Talking Markets Podcast Series (Preferreds) with Elaine Zaharis-Nikas (Cohen & Steers) & Frank Sileo (UBS CIO)
Elaine Zaharis-Nikas serves as Head of Fixed Income and Preferred Securities and a senior portfolio manager for the Cohen & Steers preferred securities portfolios. Elaine joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considera
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Public and private unpredictability'
US policy in the Gulf war has been unpredictable, but publicly unpredictable. Yesterday’s retreat from“guiding”ships through the Strait of Hormuz was a public decision. The pressures of rising gasoline prices in the US economy are publicly visible. However, investors also need to know Iranian policy, which is privately unpredictable. The forces pressuring the Iranian government are difficult to de
Talking Markets Podcast Series (Munis) with Pat Haskell (BlackRock) & Sudip Mukherjee (UBS CIO)
Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, is joined by Pat Haskell, Head of the Municipal Bond Group within the Portfolio Management Group at BlackRock, for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of the municipal bond market. They cover a performance update and outlook, share views on muni credit, and discuss the growth in SMAs and ETFs in th
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Investment goes boom
AI-related investment in the US is booming, the rest of private sector investment not so much. Still, it's a positive for the macro outlook. We discuss this, the factors driving recent market activity, along with positioning guidance from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Bryan Contreras
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Ceasing the ceasefire?'
Markets have had a muted reaction to reports of the US and Iran exchanging fire in the Gulf. Investors had tended to dismiss US President Trump’s weekend optimism and focused instead on comments from Iran, so an escalation was not unexpected. Prices are still not at levels that would bring supply and demand into balance (once reserves are exhausted), and various politicians globally talking of sub
Top of the Morning: What is the FIRE movement?
We explore a topic that’s been gaining momentum, especially among working families: Financial Independence, Retire Early, or FIRE. Justin Waring from the UBS Chief Investment Office Global Investment Management team, joins to explain what the FIRE movement is, and why it’s resonating right now. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Diminished guidance'
US President Trump posted on social media that the US will “guide” commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Media reports suggest this will not involve naval escorts. Iran’s parliamentary security committee head Aziz called the posts delusional. The oil market reaction gives weight to the Iranian view. US gasoline prices are approaching USD 4.5 per US gallon, which is an incentive for the
Signal over Noise: What the Fed transition means for the US fixed income markets
The end of Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair brings a shift in US monetary policy, with a divided committee and new leadership on the horizon. We break down what the Fed transition means for interest rates, the outlook for further cuts, and how incoming chair Warsh’s views on AI, the Fed’s balance sheet, and inflation targets could shape fixed income markets. Tune in at the start of the trading we
Top of the Morning: FOMC takeaways & US economic update
Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist, joins to reflect on this week’s FOMC meeting and the likely final press conference held by Chairman Jerome Powell. We also discuss what a Kevin Warsh-led Fed might look like, along with outline expectations for monetary policy through the balance of the year. Plus, a health check on US economic activity. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Crashing economies'
US President Trump vowed to keep the (US) Hormuz blockade, declaring the Iranian economy was “crashing,” which would force negotiations. Investors are more inclined to look at the state of the US economy as determining how the situation evolves. In the Wile E Coyote scenario, the US is off the edge of the cliff but happily running on thin air. Thursday’s data showed household savings rates have fa
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 62)
On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the factors that are contributing to global equity markets grinding higher, despite continued uncertainty stemming from geopolitics. We also touch on what investors should make of crude oil prices being once again on the rise, and assess how today’s market environment compares to that of the 1990s.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The British are coming'
Despite King Charles reassuring US members of Congress that there was no “rearguard action” to re-establish control, the Federal Reserve has acquired a distinctly British accent. Four dissents (in two directions) is a straightforward Bank of England imitation (economics is always more convincing in a British accent). Fed Chair Powell pledged to remain in office as a governor.
Talking Markets Podcast (Geopolitics & Emerging Markets) with Arif Joshi of Bramshill Investments
Arif Joshi is a Senior Managing Director and Head of the Emerging Markets platform at Bramshill Investments. Arif shares boots-on-the-ground insights following a recent trip to Venezuela, as we discuss the country’s geopolitical relations with the US, along with the landscape for energy production and exploration. We also discuss the US-Iran war and its’ implications to economic activity in the
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'UAE cashes out of OPEC'
The UAE’s imminent departure from the OPEC oil cartel is the most significant to date. Near term, there is little impact—oil prices are primarily influenced by Iran. Longer term, it may mean more supply, although OPEC’s influence in broadly defined energy supply is likely to decline at an accelerated pace with electrification. The move may signal a more urgent need for revenue by the UAE—reflectin
Top of the Morning: 250 years of US innovation - Credit Cards
The seventh edition of CIO’s 250 years of US innovation series, A great future in plastics, examines how credit cards evolved from a simple piece of plastic into a global payments infrastructure. Our conversation explores how networks, technology, and trust transformed everyday transactions, reshaping commerce and the modern economy. Featured is Jeff Harwood, Financials Equity Strategist America
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Reality slowly creeps in'
The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the less market impact US President Trump’s early morning social media posts are likely to have. While physical reserves exist, prices can move on expectations. As physical shortages become a threat, expectations will have less of an impact—bad news for speculators placing conveniently timed trades. However, consumers can absorb higher prices for a time.
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Investing in a fast-changing world
Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, drops by to review the latest allocation recommendations and key messages from the UBS Chief Investment Office, per the May edition of the UBS House View. We also assess how the markets are now viewing the US-Iran War, performance of Q1 corporate earnings, and what to expect from this week’s FOMC meeting. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Gulf proposals'
Media reports suggest Iran’s government has proposed terms to the US to allow a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets’ bias to optimism produced a positive reaction. The terms apparently defer nuclear discussions, which may be a problem for the US administration. Recent polls gave US President Trump very weak approval ratings over the US affordability crisis, suggesting there could be politic
Signal over Noise: Making Room for Mega IPOs
An influx of large-scale US IPOs is set to reshape market dynamics, creating new competition for capital, index presence, and profit pools. Fast-tracked index additions could drive rotation out of the largest index names. At the same time new AI-focused companies target digital profit pools. We see this as a signal to diversify beyond the biggest index weights and consider physical assets less exp
Top of the Morning: CIO Equity Pulse - Monthly performance update & outlook
Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David explains CIO’s positive outlook for US equities, reflects on why equity mar
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Clayton Triick (Angel Oak) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
A look at the landscape for Agency RMBS and the Housing Market, including an outlook for rates, and thoughts around broader fixed income positioning. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Bryan Contreras
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