UBS On-Air: Market Moves
UBS On-Air: Market Moves is a podcast that explores market behavior beyond the daily ticker. It features conversations designed to broaden listeners' thinking about financial markets. The show is produced by UBS's Client Strategy Office.
Episodes
Top of the Morning: CIO Equity Pulse - Monthly performance update & outlook
Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David reflects on the September FOMC meeting outcome and implications of higher r
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy peculiarities, and a productivity “miracle”'
The Bank of Japan raised rates, as expected. The decision was not unanimous, causing a modest market reaction. The yen has weakened—yelling “house” like a grandmother in a bingo parlor does not offset fundamental market pricing. August inflation was a little lower than expected (helped by government influenced prices). The BoJ wants neutral interest rates, and another rate increase may follow.
Top of the Morning: FOMC reflections & US economy health-check
Following this week’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by the studio to share takeaways and reflections on the meeting outcome, along with the implications of the rate hike to US economy activity. We also discuss the current inflationary environment, labor market and how the markets have digested the rate hike. Host: Danie
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The lesser of two evils'
Yesterday’s unanimous vote in favor of a US interest rate increase could be interpreted as defiance against political interference. Having raised once, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise again—to prove this rate increase was intentional and not a mistake (even if it was a mistake). The rate increase has no near-term impact on inflation or economic growth.
Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - Supply shifts
A look into the interplay and market dynamics of large government debt issuance and AI-related debt fundraising, factors that have been contributing to rising long-end yields, along with positioning preferences within the asset class. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtagh, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: D
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A series of unfortunate events'
After the pandemic, the world’s central banks were subject to a series of unfortunate events: supply chain disruption, a war in Ukraine, profit-led inflation, tariffs, and a war in the Gulf. These one-off events raised inflation, but (bar profit-led inflation) were beyond central bank control. But, when such events become a series, should central banks create deflation elsewhere to offset “one-of
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Just get on with it already
As financial markets are back in full swing post the summer holidays, investors are weighing fresh inflation data, health of the labor market, rising oil prices, and a notable upcoming Fed policy meeting. Plus, recent concern over AI safety and implications to the AI trade. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investments Office, discusses these factors, what it all
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Magic numbers'
China's latest economic data showed a lackluster domestic economy. Retail sales slowed, and were weaker than expected. Domestic investment plunged more than expected. Industrial production is being supported by external demand and China's success in helping US customers avoid tariffs.
Top of the Morning: The face of wealth is changing - Women investors
Marianna Mamou, Head of Advice Beyond Investing, sheds light on the evolving relationship between women investors and the wealth management industry. We discuss whether there is a need for a different approach when it comes to working with women investors, what to know about the next generation of women investors, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Signal over Noise: How to position for the next wave of AI-led scientific breakthroughs
The recently reported AI-assisted solution to the Navier–Stokes problem points to AI’s broadening role in frontier scientific research, raising the question of where faster discovery could translate into investment value. This episode explores how that progress could open new opportunities across healthcare, energy, and advanced materials, and reinforce the long-term investment themes of AI, power
Across the Pond: Europe’s political pendulum swings wider
Political polarization is testing Europe’s established parties and confronting markets with the prospect of larger policy shifts. Germany’s regional elections have brought the growing influence of parties outside the traditional mainstream into focus, while France’s presidential election could shape the pace of future European integration. Why might fiscal spending fail to ease voter discontent, a
Washington Weekly Podcast: Missouri redistricting, GOP convention, 9-11 remembrance
This week, Shane talks about recent developments surrounding Missouri’s redistricting efforts, recaps President Trump’s keynote address at GOP midterm convention, and reflects on the 25th anniversary of the 9-11 attacks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Prices palooza'
It is a sad comment on the quality of communication by the US central bank that a single US consumer price inflation number can have so much sway over policy expectations. Single data points should not be relied on to this extent. If today’s data does not produce a US rate hike in September, disinflationary forces may keep rates on hold this year. If rates are raised, a second rate hike would prob
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy and promises'
The ECB is almost certain to repeat its earlier policy rate error and unnecessarily raise interest rates. There is unlikely to be any inflation or economic growth impact, but a further rate increase erodes borrowers’ ability to manage future economic crises. This should be the last error, unless oil prices get so high the ECB feels it needs to create a recession in the non-oil economy to create no
Top of the Morning: State of the US Consumer & Back to School trends
Sunny Mehra, Consumer Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to provide a health check on the US consumer, including a look a recent spending trends and overall sentiment. Sunny reflects on the 2026 back to school shopping season, and previews how retailers are preparing for the upcoming holidays. Plus, a look at positioning preferences across the US Consumer Discreti
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 72)
On this week’s episode, we catch up with Burkhard following his recent visit to Hamburg, Germany as he shares takeaways from meetings held with families and their family officers where they discussed family wealth, family governance and generational transfers. Burkhard also recites the poem “IF” and explains how the messaging relates to the art of investing.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Market and non-market inflation forces'
China’s August consumer and producer price inflation was slightly higher. The suggestion is not that better demand is driving up prices, but that global inflation forces are being allowed to trickle into domestic pricing.
Top of the Morning: Election Watch 2026 - Something old, something new
Kurt and Shane drop by to discuss the two of the most consequential policy questions of the 2025 mid-term election cycle - something old (Social Security), and something new (Artificial Intelligence). These two issues differ greatly in age and character, but voters in both parties share concerns about each. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Off
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trading carefully'
China’s July trade data showed ongoing growth in exports—some of this reflects re-exporting. The gap between what China says it is selling to the US and what the US admits to buying from China has reached extraordinary levels. China’s market share of US non-oil imports is 13.2% (China export data) or 8.4% (US import data). This suggests China’s US customers have become adept at avoiding tariffs, s
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Monetary policy and forever wars'
Markets’ responses to last Friday’s US employment report rebuke US monetary policy communication. The report showed strong payrolls growth, but unemployment rates drifted very slowly higher. The labor market is not creating accelerating wages. Market rate hike expectations increased, but the decision is still essentially a coin toss. With a clearly communicated framework for monetary policy, marke
Signal over Noise: To hike or not to hike
With inflation and labor data providing a mixed picture on the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the Fed faces a closely balanced decision between a rate hike and a hold. This episode explores what either outcome could mean for the yield curve, equity valuations, and portfolio positioning in an environment of uncertain policy outlook.
Washington Weekly Podcast: Open-Source AI Leadership Act, Funding Bill, US-Iran War
Shane drops by ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend to update on this week’s developments up on Capitol Hill, including Congressional efforts to keep the government funded, and progress on the Open-Source AI Leadership Act. Plus, an update on renewed military tensions between the US and Iran. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Dani
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Talking calmly'
In the unnecessarily uncertain world of US monetary policy, we heard from Federal Reserve Governor Waller. Waller signaled a desire for unchanged policy, as disinflation forces seem to continue. If disinflation ceased, then Waller would reconsider. This is similar to New York Fed President Williams’ outlook. These two Fed members command more respect than some other Fed members, and their words mo
What is the electrification of everything? with Paul Baiocchi of SS&C ALPS Advisors
Paul Baiocchi, Head of ETF Distribution with SS&C ALPS Advisors, drops by UBS Studios for a wide-ranging discussion around “the electrification of everything”, including a look at the opportunity-set, risk considerations, and how to think about investing in the theme. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fun with foreign exchange'
The yen has been gyrating amidst speculation about intervention in the markets and the possibility of more aggressive action by the Bank of Japan. A Japanese market holiday looms. Intervention only changes a currency’s value if there is a speculative attack to defeat (there is not) or if fundamentals change. Interest rates are a relevant fundamental, but one of many.
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 71)
While on a visit to Portugal, Burkhard drops by to highlight the factors that have contributed to the country’s economic success, and what investors should know. Burkhard also reflects on the Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium speech last Friday, and how markets responded.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Any bond traders over 40?'
Crude oil prices continue to move higher amid ongoing fighting in the Gulf. US gasoline prices have not moved much higher, because they did not move much lower when crude oil prices fell. US President Trump’s seeming willingness to overlook record low approval ratings and the threat of losing the midterm elections is challenging markets’ optimism bias.
Top of the Morning: Venezuela - Extraordinary announcement, many open questions
Following the recently announced historic oil agreement between the United States and Venezuela, there are many open questions around how and when a deal will ultimately come together, along with the implications to energy markets and global investors. Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets from the UBS Chief Investment Office, provides some clarity around these questions,
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The AI boom unabated'
Low level fighting in the Gulf war is keeping oil prices at a higher level. The United Arab Emirates (which was attacked by Iranian drones yesterday) suggested that this situation cannot be sustained. However, the longer this situation continues, the more it will alter economies in the region—with implications for post-war costs.
Washington Weekly Podcast: Ratcliffe-Moscow meeting, US midterms update, US legislative agenda
As the Congressional summer recess concludes and lawmakers return to Washington DC, there is no shortage of agenda items to address, in parallel to efforts on the campaign trail ahead of the US midterm elections in November. Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor from Governmental Affairs US, outlines the legislative priorities of Congress, along with shares what the latest polling
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Jackson Hole reflections
As we head towards the unofficial end of summer, markets continue to be supplied with ample news to digest - spanning policy developments out of the recent Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to key inflation and labor market datapoints on the horizon. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation for the Americas from the UBS Chief Investments office, discusses these factors and what it all means for CIO’s
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More hawkish, less depth'
The US and Iran have been trading missile exchanges in the Gulf, pushing oil back over USD 90 per barrel. US President Trump posted a AI-generated video of Kharg Island being destroyed, but there appears to have been no attack in the Iranian facility and the muted nature of the hostilities has created a muted market response.
Signal over Noise: How to position for the physical AI era
Advances in AI are beginning to move beyond digital tasks and into physical AI, raising the question of where value could accrue as machines become more adaptable in real-world environments. This episode explores how faster on-the-job learning could reshape automation, the hardware required to support it, and the investment implications across the emerging robotics supply chain.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Marshmallows and monetary policy'
Amidst the toasting of marshmallows at the Jackson Hole summer camp for economists, there are some hopes Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will offer a sensible structure for thinking about US monetary policy. Warsh’s communication style, telling investors “you figure it out”, is not working, creating uncertainty and introducing an unnecessary risk premium into financial markets.
Top of the Morning: The investment implications of data center regulation
AI data-center development is unlikely to stop, but the rules of engagement are changing. Local opposition, ratepayer concerns, and permitting scrutiny are shifting the debate from whether projects should be built to how costs, benefits, and community impacts should be allocated. Hear insights from Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, Barry McAlinden, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Jean
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Toll time'
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard reported that Iran and Oman have agreed to share revenues from tolls on shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz—once the strait reopens. The announcement stresses that Iran is likely to keep stricter control over the strait after the war, but investors expect that. The announcement does not, of itself, suggest an imminent reopening of the strait.
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Policy Endgame
Higher interest rates and government finances have been in the spotlight over the past week, with investor attention focused on possible policy responses this week and beyond. Financial markets have been struck by these developments, though have remained resilient as the summer nears an end. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, reflects on these de
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How to survive an affordability crisis'
Iran and Oman are close to agreeing on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. While this may not signal an immediate reopening of the strait, it does suggest Iran is considering reopening the strait. Crude oil prices have fallen (although gasoline prices in the US remain comfortably over USD 4 per US gallon).
Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Insights on AI
This special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book presentation series outlines how businesses are embracing AI adoption, the implications of AI usage to operating efficiency, the evolving regulatory and political landscape surrounding AI heading into the US midterm elections, along with the factors behind the recent decline in token price. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strateg
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'D-day or Light Brigade?'
The US affordability crisis stays in the headlines, with US President Trump suggesting a doubling of tariffs paid by US importers of Canadian cars. However, these tariffs would not take effect until 1 January and investors are likely to assume the US will retreat (this has been the pattern with similar threats).
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Canada, Iran, and US affordability'
The collapse of trade talks between Canada and the US resulted in US importers being charged tariffs on a further USD 20bn of imports. Import prices (where the tariff is levied) typically represent about 40% of the end-consumer price. These tariffs will be harder than others to avoid. China seems to have helped its US customers avoid or reduce tariffs by rerouting goods—that is not economically p
Signal over Noise: Navigating Scylla and Charybdis at Jackson Hole
Jackson Hole puts the Federal Reserve’s policy trade-off into focus: a rate-sensitive housing market is under pressure, while AI investment remains exceptionally strong. This episode explores how AI-led growth may complicate inflation signals, and what that could mean for the policy outlook.
Top of the Morning: CIO Equity Pulse - Monthly performance update & outlook
Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David outlines the factors behind CIO’s S&P 500 price target increases, why t
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Four billion dollars'
US Treasury Secretary Bessent declared the proposed Treasury buybacks could be four billion dollars. Bond investors seem to feel that four billion dollars is not terribly impressive. Yields rose—though a sense of proportion is helpful. This is hardly a repeat of the 1994 bond market collapse. What matters is whether the bond weakness has attracted US President Trump’s attention, triggering a polic
How should I be positioned? with Matt McLennan (First Eagle) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Matt drops by UBS Studios in New York to rejoin Jason for a wide-ranging conversation which spans the US macroeconomic environment, equity market performance, the AI capex cycle, Fed monetary policy, and market risk considerations. Plus, and exchange of views on portfolio positioning. Matt McLennan is Head of the Global Value Team, and a portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments, and is a mem
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy whack-a-mole'
The announcement that the US Treasury would “at least double” purchases of long-term US government bonds sparked a rally; 10-year yields fell to levels not seen for a whole week. Higher yields impact the US affordability crisis and debt service costs, making them a political focus. This policy is to counter the (presumably unintended) consequences for bond markets of other policies like the Gulf w
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'All about inflation'
Tensions in the Gulf continue, and crude oil futures remain over USD 90 per barrel. This has reignited some inflation concerns. The fact that consumers have shifted spending patterns in response to higher oil prices is not properly reflected in inflation calculations—and while the impact will not be dramatic, it does mean that the damage to real incomes is slightly less than inflation data suggest
Sustainable Investing Perspectives: Investing through a social lens
This month’s episode focuses on investing through a social lens, bringing together experts from UBS Global Wealth Management and Community Capital Management. Community Capital Management specializes in fixed income investments that aim to advance positive societal outcomes and have been committed to this work since its founding in 1998. Featured are Melissa Amler and Tiffany Agard from the Sust
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Back up'
The Brent benchmark oil future is back above USD 90 per barrel. The US-Iran truce covered by the “memorandum of understanding” expired yesterday and US President Trump said there is no intention to extend it. Trump also threatened to bomb Oman (again). From an investor perspective, none of this changes the current situation—Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed—but markets’ optimism b
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Holland days
We are in the home stretch of peak summer vacation season and that has translated to a calm in the markets. Economic data, however, continues to roll in with potential implications for the course of Fed monetary policy. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses these implications, along with current investor sentiment and portfolio positioning
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Growth and delays'
Japan’s preliminary second-quarter GDP data was weaker than expected—though the headline changes were exaggerated by the fiction of annualization. Consumer spending weighed on the growth rate. While international investors have been eager to see the Bank of Japan as being too late with rate increases, the data seems to support a more gradual approach.
Signal over Noise: Beware of the AI factor in your portfolio: the Illusion of diversification
AI is blurring the lines between asset classes, creating correlated exposures where portfolios may appear diversified on the surface. This episode considers the limits of asset-class diversification and explores how a more dynamic, scenario-based approach can offer a clearer view of portfolio risk and help investors build more resilient portfolios.
How should I be positioned? with Richard Bernstein (Janus Henderson) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Rich rejoins for a wide-ranging conversation with Jason that covers equity valuations, Q2 earnings reflections, Fed monetary policy, the US macroeconomic environment, and more. Plus, thoughts on portfolio positioning through year-end. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro and Customized Invest
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Spin and substance'
July US producer price data did nothing to change economists’ outlook for the Federal Reserve. Lettuce prices collapsed 72% from the previous month—this follows a health scare and a demand drop, and is unlikely to be touted as an example of disinflation by the administration.
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 70)
Following another busy week of corporate earnings releases and equities reaching all-time-highs, Burkhard weighs equity valuations, whether the data-center boom is sustainable, the longevity of productivity momentum, along with where the global race for AI dominance stands today.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'After the data'
The July US consumer price inflation data was as expected. This allowed headline writers to wax lyrical about “easing pressures on the US Federal Reserve”. Economists are not rushing to change views—the economic consensus is very clearly for unchanged US rates this year. Non-oil price pressures still seem benign, but this print was flattered by fewer gasoline price increases that will be evident i
Talking Markets Podcast - Muni Market Mid-Year Check-up with Eric Kazatzky of MacKay Shields
Eric Kazatzky is a Managing Director and Client Portfolio Manager at MacKay Shields (an affiliate of New York Life Investment Management). As we’re just past the mid-way point of the year, Eric outlines YTD muni market performance, and shares a year-end performance outlook. We cover the outperformance of Revenue Bonds, whether opportunity still exists in the 12-22-year portion of the yield curve
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rolling the inflation dice'
Today's US July consumer price inflation data will be less precise than in the past. There are more gaps in the data, and those gaps are filled by (educated) guesswork. Blunting consumer price precision will not impact markets however—investors are straining to second-guess what the Federal Reserve will do with policy. The reaction to a single weaker employment report shows the potency of any
Top of the Morning: Hedge Funds - Themes, performance update & outlook
Dan and Sean drop by for a hedge fund performance update and outlook. We discuss the year-to-date evolution of risk and capital deployment, common themes observed in hedge fund books, along with strategies to consider in the current environment. Featured are Dan Scansaroli, Head of Global Investment Management Multi-Asset Solutions & Co-Head Investment Management Americas, & Sean Sanborn
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Oil bubbles up again'
The crude oil price is creeping toward USD 90 per barrel. US President Trump responded to Iran’s demands for reparations by demanding Iran pay reparations—this is not the sort of concession the US will be required to make to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It is too soon for the recent rise in crude oil to show up in US retail gasoline prices, so domestic political pressures have probably not yet pea
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Market drivers
There are no signs of a summer slowdown for equity, bond, and forex markets as factors such as corporate earnings, economic data, AI developments, and policy news continue to drive notable market movement. Jason drops by to assess these market drivers, what it all means for the investment outlook, and shares CIO’s current investment recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocat
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Phoebe White (UBS Group Research) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
A wide-ranging conversation on the current rate environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the landscape for broader fixed income investing. Featured are Phoebe White, Head of US Rates Strategy at UBS Group Research, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Another (downward) inflation surprise'
China’s July consumer and producer price inflation were lower than expected. China’s domestic prices have a weak relationship with export prices, and China's export prices have a weak relationship with global inflation. The price declines were attributed to energy and tourism services. However, this is another economy where inflation has been lower than consensus. Possibly the consensus is bei
Signal over Noise: AI's impact on the economy, Fed policy, and portfolio allocation
The scale of the AI buildout is extending its effects beyond the technology sector and equity markets to the broader economy. This episode explores what the investment surge could mean for productivity, growth, inflation, and interest rates, and how investors can balance exposure to AI beneficiaries with assets resilient to its broader macroeconomic effects.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trading into consumer demand'
China’s July export data was somewhat stronger than expected. The big three electrification exports have collectively been important to export growth. China’s exports to the US are steady around pre-pandemic levels (using China’s data, which is probably a better reflection of trade trends). German June exports were stronger than expected and (of course) past data was revised stronger.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'What economists do not know'
Today is the release of everything economists do not understand about the US economy—otherwise known as second quarter productivity. Productivity has assumed mythical status as people search for AI benefits. While technology should improve a company’s or sector’s productivity, its macro impact is less certain as people move into less productive jobs. Some productivity gains will not be counted—my
Credit Investments Group Quarterly Spotlight with UBS Asset Management
Michael Adelman and Matt Iannuci, along with Eileen Liu, Head of US Client Portfolio Management, join to discuss recent market developments within high yield bonds and broader credit markets.
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 69)
As global equity markets set new all-time-highs and show signs of recovery from July indigestion, Burkhard outlines the factors that are driving current investor sentiment. We also cover the currency intervention by the US Fed and Bank of Japan. Plus, a market tie-in to Sysiphus, the hero of the ancient Greek-saga “A happy man”.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Stimulus and redistribution'
Oil prices are down and the optimism bias is up. There are hopes for an Iran-Oman settlement on post-war control of the Strait of Hormuz. This would probably mean tolls eventually (probably branded a “tariff” or an “environmental charge” according to political bias). A toll would be economically negligible. Iran cementing control of the Strait has implications for insurance, supply chain security,
Talking Markets Podcast Series (Preferreds) with Doug Baker (Nuveen) & Frank Sileo (UBS CIO)
Doug Baker is a Portfolio Manager for Nuveen’s global fixed income team. Doug joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The politics of price expectations'
US Michigan consumer sentiment data is a weak economic signal. It does have political punch, via the inflation expectations measure. Consumers focus on the price of frequent purchases (food and fuel), and tend to fixate on the price level. Most consumers will have a “fair” price in mind as a reference, and for gasoline prices that is probably around USD 2.50 per US gallon. Gasoline remains well ab
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Assertions and indifference'
US President Trump asserted that talks with Iran are ongoing. Iran asserted that talks with the US are not happening. Markets tend to react if Trump has the authority to back statements—threatening military strikes is partially priced in, raising oil prices; retreating from military strikes lowers the oil price. But markets are less inclined to respond to Trump’s other statements without independe
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Prices and productivity'
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh testified to Congress—at times sounding like a Bundesbank member, with a vehement denunciation of inflation. Warsh was keen to say the Fed was solely responsible for inflation—that is challenged by Fed research ascribing roughly 1ppt of last year’s inflation to US tariffs. Warsh also displayed a troubling fascination with the productivity pixie of artificial intelligenc
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Matt Brill (Invesco) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
A wide-ranging conversation on the landscape for broader fixed income investing and credit markets, including performance drivers, risk considerations, and what’s important for investors to focus on. Featured are Matt Brill, Head of North America Investment Grade Credit and Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Back on the see-saw'
Oil prices moved to the lows of last Tuesday after a flurry of activity over the weekend. US President Trump called off military strikes against Iran—markets had not priced in military strikes anyway. An oil tanker then appeared to have been attacked near Oman. Trump then said talks with Iran would resume. Markets netted out these events and the optimism bias returned.
Signal over Noise: AI trade at a crossroads—how to position for volatility ahead
AI capabilities are advancing rapidly, supporting long-term demand for intelligence, but the path from innovation to deployment is becoming more uneven. This episode explores how bottlenecks in permitting, power, supply chains, and enterprise adoption could shape returns in the AI value chain, and where investors may find the most durable opportunities in applications and enabling infrastructure.
Washington Weekly Podcast: Geopolitical & Capitol Hill round-up
As the US-Iran conflict widens across the region, Shane updates on this week’s developments and how the conflict could evolve over the near-term. We also discuss what remains for the US Senate to address ahead of the planned summer recess, and whether lawmakers may remain in Washington DC to work through the legislative agenda. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Go
Top of the Morning: The evolution of Emerging Markets
A look at the factors behind the outperformance of emerging market assets over the past year, along with how the rise of AI and semiconductors has changed the nature of the emerging markets asset class. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How to conduct monetary policy'
Japan’s Ministry of Finance seemingly intervened in foreign exchange markets in defense of the yen. Such attempts to prop up a currency’s level only work in the long term if the weakness was caused by speculation, or if the temporary respite is used to correct the fundamental economic drivers of the weakness. This may have been more about the pace of weakness than any specific level.
Top of the Morning: FOMC - Warsh signals a period of watchful thinking
Andrew drops by the studio for an assessment of this week’s July FOMC meeting statement, and Q&A session with Chairman Kevin Warsh. We also discuss the factors behind the market response on Wednesday afternoon, along with CIO’s expectations for monetary policy into year-end, and beyond. Featured is Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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