UBS On-Air: Market Moves
UBS On-Air: Market Moves is a podcast that explores market behavior beyond the daily ticker. It features conversations designed to broaden listeners' thinking about financial markets. The show is produced by UBS's Client Strategy Office.
Episodes
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation you can’t believe in'
China’s September inflation data was not especially exciting. Food prices kept the consumer price inflation figures moderate (food is nearly 30% of China’s consumer price basket). China is not a noted food exporter, so this has little global bearing. China’s consumers are not responding to low inflation with much enthusiasm.
Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Foreign capitals, state capitols
This edition of UBS Election Watch looks beyond Washington precisely because that is usually where most of the attention is focused during midterm elections. Often overlooked is the impact of US elections on other countries and the impact of state and local elections on US policy. Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governme
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A dangerous game?'
Chip manufacturers have been experiencing equity price volatility after Broadcom’s chief executive drew “casino” parallels. (US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent has already demonstrated the danger of making that analogy). The global economic impact of this noise is not that significant—although it may matter for the South Korean and Taiwanese economies.
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Q3 earnings, oil prices, inflation data
Following what was a relatively quiet week for investors, the weeks ahead promise to deliver much for investors to digest - spanning Q3 corporate earnings, September inflation and retail sales data, and more. All of this while risk factors such as higher rates and oil prices remain top of mind for investors. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, dis
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Fast and the Furious'
A lot happened around the oil market: US president Trump announced a deal with Russian President Putin to buy Russian diesel; the Houthis attacked Riyadh airport in Saudi Arabia; Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine; Russia subsequently attacked Ukraine energy facilities; the US reportedly threatened to stop arms sales to Ukraine if they attacked Russian energy faciliti
Signal over Noise: S&P 500 earnings are tethered to private fund flows
Over the past few years, markets have looked beyond a shifting economic backdrop and focused on the prospect of exceptional earnings growth. This episode explores why AI investment has become a key driver of corporate profits, how private capital is fueling demand for compute, and whether the current earnings outlook can be sustained.
Talking Markets Podcast Series (Private Credit) with Marc Lipschultz (Blue Owl Capital)
Marc Lipschultz is Co-Chief Executive Officer of Blue Owl Capital and a member of the firm’s board of directors. Marc drops by the 1285 podcast studio to share his perspective on how the landscape for private credit has evolved throughout the course of 2026. We also discuss where Blue Owl is finding opportunities across Real Assets, including within digital infrastructure. Plus, thoughts on the
Washington Weekly Podcast: SCOTUS cases, U.S. midterm election update
As the U.S. midterm elections are quickly approaching, Shane identifies the Senate races that he is closely watching, and what polling is currently pointing to. With the U.S. Supreme Court now back in session, we also review some notable cases on the docket. Plus, a look at how U.S. officials have been responding to reported public health concerns in Siberia. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Worrying about the cost of war'
US President Trump’s social media account declared the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections. Other actors in the war may launch attacks. The post does reveal the concern about the political costs of the war, and rekindled some of the optimism bias in markets. However, the political costs presumably shift after the midterms.
Talking Markets Podcast Series (Preferreds) with Derek Pines (Bramshill) & Frank Sileo (UBS CIO)
Derek Pines is a Senior Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Bramshill Investments. Derek joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The policy-induced recession risk'
Crude oil prices and diesel prices are up (there seems to be uncertainty about whether last Friday’s pledge to release diesel reserves is actually just confirming previously announced reserve releases). Bonds and equities do not like this. Central banks have pretended that they can do something about oil prices, which worries investors. If central banks want to offset inflation from an oil shock,
Top of the Morning: State of the US economy & Fed outlook
With the next Fed policy meeting just a few weeks away, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by the studio to share CIO’s expectations and the factors that will likely inform the central bank’s policy decision. We also cover the health of the US labor market, GDP picture, and the latest on inflation. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Managing expectations'
The political costs of the Gulf war are evident—US President Trump suggested removing the federal tax on gasoline. Gasoline prices (unlike diesel) feed directly into US consumer price calculations. However, even supposing Congress was in session long enough to pass the legislation, a less than 19% reduction per US gallon has to be considered against a price increase of over USD 1.25 since the war
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Mike Cudzil (PIMCO) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
A wide-ranging conversation on the current rate environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, issuance implications, and the landscape for broader fixed income investing, recorded at the PIMCO studios in Newport Beach, California. Featured are Mike Cudzil, Managing Director and Generalist Portfolio Manager at PIMCO, and Leslie Falconio, Managing Director and Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strate
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Wash, rinse, repeat
Investors and the Fed got a dose of relatively good economic data last week, yet interest rates rose again. Rising yields remains a dominant market story, however with a light calendar for economic data this week, and Q3 earnings season starting next week, macro might take a back seat in the near-term. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on t
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Revisions, resilience, and affordability'
The US employment report offered few reliable facts for investors, other than the reminder that data is revised a lot. If markets listened to economists with the reverence they deserve, that would not be a surprise. Markets were surprised—revisions suggest a weaker employment position. The sense of an affordability crisis is likely to be reinforced—wage growth after adjusting for inflation is nea
Signal over Noise: The 1999 analogue through the fixed income lens
As long-term US Treasury yields have climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades and today's AI investment boom draws comparisons with the internet buildout, the 1999 cycle increasingly offers a useful point of reference. This episode explores the parallels and key differences between the two periods, and examines what rising term premiums and fiscal dynamics could mean for rates and p
Across the Pond: Is wealth reshaping the housing market?
Housing affordability is under pressure across many major cities. Yet the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 shows that housing markets are following increasingly different paths as accumulated financial wealth supports demand in prime residential segments. Is wealth overtaking income as a driver of demand? And how is that reshaping housing risk? In this episode of Across the Pond, host Beli
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The labor market anomaly'
The US employment report has a wide range of estimates around the payrolls data. This is not surprising—labor market data precision is challenged by low response rates and structural changes in the way people work. The general expectation is for an OK report with stable unemployment.
Top of the Morning: China at two speeds - Reflections from the ground
Xingchen Yu, Senior Investment Strategist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, shares reflections from his latest trip to China, where AI ambition and seamless digital convenience coexist with cautious consumers, fierce competition, and lingering property pressures. Through stories from the ground, he explores an economy moving at two speeds, and what the latest Trump-Xi summit means for a relat
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Saving the US consumer'
The important point from yesterday’s US data was not the larger-than-expected downward pressures on reported inflation—these are technical changes that US consumers do not experience in their daily struggles with the affordability crisis. The important point was savings. Lowering savings rates are how US consumers keep spending. The savings rate level was revised higher. This suggests savings can
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The power of saving more, or less'
UK second quarter GDP was revised stronger, as new methods reveal how much new economic activity has been missed from the data. Rising real disposable incomes encouraged a rise in the UK household savings rate. If the Gulf war does not, in fact, turn into a forever war and oil prices come down, the impact on real disposable incomes should be positive; but that would probably then be used to rebuil
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Implications of higher rates
The rise in treasury yields continues to be top of mind for investors - Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, explains why they’re rising. We also touch on an outlook for oil prices, new developments in agentic AI, and what it all means for your portfolio. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Bonding oil prices to yields'
Bond yields and oil prices continue their close relationship. Central banks are supposed to look through an oil price shock as being beyond their control. However, if central banks seemingly care about oil, the only policy remedy is to weaken the non-oil economy, as something they can control. In that case, higher oil prices make it more likely interest rates will have to rise to recession-inducin
Washington Weekly Podcast: UN General Assembly, US-China summit
Following what was a busy week in both New York and Washington DC, Shane drops by to share some takeaways and reflections on the UN General Assembly, along with the three-day summit involving President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China. Plus, a look at legislative priorities of the US Senate ahead of the midterm elections. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Gov
Top of the Morning: Emerging Markets - Fed hikes matter, but global liquidity matters more
In the wake of the September FOMC rate-hike, we discuss the implications of a Fed hiking cycle to emerging market assets, including equities and fixed income. We also cover the risks to emerging markets that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Camels through the eyes of fishhooks'
China and the US agreed to lower tariffs on USD 30bn of each other’s products. China’s consumers will pay lower taxes when buying camels from the US. US anglers face lower taxes when buying fishhooks from China. The amounts involved are small—USD 30bn represents around two months of the tariff avoidance implied by a comparison of US and China trade data.
Signal over Noise: The real-world constraints to scaling AI
AI is advancing quickly, but turning that progress into profits depends on more than better models, with infrastructure availability and business adoption increasingly shaping the investment outlook. This episode explores why strong demand alone may not determine the leaders, how bottlenecks could redirect spending, and where we see the largest opportunities across compute, power, and applications
Back-to-School on the Markets with Jeffrey Gundlach (DoubleLine) & Solita Marcelli (UBS)
A fireside chat featuring Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital, hosted by Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Head of Investment Management, which covers the current market and macro environment, including thoughts on the US economy, the Fed, and positioning across asset classes.
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 73)
On this week’s episode, we catch up with Burkhard following his recent visit to Uganda and Ghana as he shares how economic and business development and investment is influencing Accra’s rapidly evolving landscape.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'House problems'
US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent faces something of a housing problem. Despite Bessent’s efforts, US mortgage rates rose above 7% yesterday. The exact level is not important (except to the media, ever enraptured by round numbers). The increase erodes the spending power of new homeowners—and critically does so in a way that real income data does not capture. Inflation figures use a fictional h
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'In bondage?'
US 10-year Treasury bond yields moved sharply above 5%, and the USDJPY exchange rate is back above 158. US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent seems to be demonstrating the house does not always win. For Gen Z bond traders, a 0.15-percentage point rise in yields is scary. For Gen X bond traders, it is mild. A variety of concerns came together to worry the markets.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Spinning away from war?'
Markets have not fully regained their earlier optimism bias, but are a little more cheerful. Yesterday, US President Trump signed an agreement essentially reaffirming the status quo with Greenland and Denmark—but spun it as change. Could a similar course be pursued with Iran? Trump’s UN speech was aggressive but both the US and Iranian regimes make frequent use of hyperbole. After the speech, the
Top of the Morning: Open Enrollment Season considerations and decisions
Open enrollment season is right around the corner, and for many employees, that means making decisions about healthcare, insurance, retirement savings, and other workplace benefits. But how much thought should we really put into those decisions each year? Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Head of UBS Wealth Way Strategy & Solutions, both with the UBS Chief Investment
Sustainable Investing Perspectives: Investing in Global Transitions
This month’s episode focuses on investing in global transitions, bringing together experts from UBS Global Wealth Management and AGF. Featured are Melissa Amler, Senior Sustainable & Impact Investing Platform Specialist with UBS Global Wealth Management, along with Martin Grosskopf, Portfolio Manager and Director Sustainable Investing at AGF.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Independent thinking'
Gulf states, meeting on the fringes of the United Nations gathering, have suggested peace talks between Iran and the US are not progressing. Markets are not, perhaps, too surprised to learn this. The Gulf states are indicating a long-term desire to cooperate with Iran and provide mutual security in the region. Such independence is important, as it might change the recycling of Gulf petrodollars in
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Being Kevin Warsh
With one source of uncertainty having been removed in the near-term, following last week’s Fed rate hike, there remain other risk factors on the minds of investors. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, outlines those risks, shares an outlook for monetary policy, and reviews the latest positioning recommendations from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, H
CIO Fixed Income Roundtable Podcast Series
Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Letty Zemaitis, Frank Sileo, Sudip Mukherjee, Barry McAlinden & Sangeeta Marfatia, Senior Closed-end Funds Strategis
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Affordability, again'
US average diesel prices broke above USD 6.50 per US gallon for the first time ever. Since January 2025, overall price levels (measured by the consumer price index) are up 4.8%, with motor fuel prices up 17.0%, feeding perceptions of an affordability crisis. US President Trump indicated a willingness to meet with Iranian President Pezeshkian. The rhetoric from both sides remains negative. The US a
Signal over Noise: Three takeaways from three days in Silicon Valley
AI is giving robots new capabilities and attracting larger funding rounds, but rapid progress is also making tomorrow's leaders harder to identify. This episode draws on observations from Silicon Valley to explore the investment opportunities and disruption AI is creating, and the case for physical assets, cybersecurity, and diversification in portfolios.
House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management
A monthly discussion around the drivers behind equity market performance, along with the review of notable equity themes, positioning preferences, and a performance outlook. Featured are Jeff Hans, Portfolio Manager, Private Client US Equity, and Dominic Schagar, Investment Specialist, Active Equities with UBS Asset Management.
Washington Weekly Podcast: AI Safety, Congressional priorities post-Election Day
Amidst growing concerns over AI safety, Shane shares how the topic is currently being discussed and debated amongst Washington lawmakers. We also highlight the recent passage of the Sanctioning Russia Act, along with the list of Congressional focuses and priorities to be revisited by lawmakers post the November midterm elections. Featured Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Go
Top of the Morning: CIO Equity Pulse - Monthly performance update & outlook
Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David reflects on the September FOMC meeting outcome and implications of higher r
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy peculiarities, and a productivity “miracle”'
The Bank of Japan raised rates, as expected. The decision was not unanimous, causing a modest market reaction. The yen has weakened—yelling “house” like a grandmother in a bingo parlor does not offset fundamental market pricing. August inflation was a little lower than expected (helped by government influenced prices). The BoJ wants neutral interest rates, and another rate increase may follow.
Top of the Morning: FOMC reflections & US economy health-check
Following this week’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by the studio to share takeaways and reflections on the meeting outcome, along with the implications of the rate hike to US economy activity. We also discuss the current inflationary environment, labor market and how the markets have digested the rate hike. Host: Danie
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The lesser of two evils'
Yesterday’s unanimous vote in favor of a US interest rate increase could be interpreted as defiance against political interference. Having raised once, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise again—to prove this rate increase was intentional and not a mistake (even if it was a mistake). The rate increase has no near-term impact on inflation or economic growth.
Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - Supply shifts
A look into the interplay and market dynamics of large government debt issuance and AI-related debt fundraising, factors that have been contributing to rising long-end yields, along with positioning preferences within the asset class. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtagh, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: D
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A series of unfortunate events'
After the pandemic, the world’s central banks were subject to a series of unfortunate events: supply chain disruption, a war in Ukraine, profit-led inflation, tariffs, and a war in the Gulf. These one-off events raised inflation, but (bar profit-led inflation) were beyond central bank control. But, when such events become a series, should central banks create deflation elsewhere to offset “one-of
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Just get on with it already
As financial markets are back in full swing post the summer holidays, investors are weighing fresh inflation data, health of the labor market, rising oil prices, and a notable upcoming Fed policy meeting. Plus, recent concern over AI safety and implications to the AI trade. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investments Office, discusses these factors, what it all
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Magic numbers'
China's latest economic data showed a lackluster domestic economy. Retail sales slowed, and were weaker than expected. Domestic investment plunged more than expected. Industrial production is being supported by external demand and China's success in helping US customers avoid tariffs.
Top of the Morning: The face of wealth is changing - Women investors
Marianna Mamou, Head of Advice Beyond Investing, sheds light on the evolving relationship between women investors and the wealth management industry. We discuss whether there is a need for a different approach when it comes to working with women investors, what to know about the next generation of women investors, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Signal over Noise: How to position for the next wave of AI-led scientific breakthroughs
The recently reported AI-assisted solution to the Navier–Stokes problem points to AI’s broadening role in frontier scientific research, raising the question of where faster discovery could translate into investment value. This episode explores how that progress could open new opportunities across healthcare, energy, and advanced materials, and reinforce the long-term investment themes of AI, power
Across the Pond: Europe’s political pendulum swings wider
Political polarization is testing Europe’s established parties and confronting markets with the prospect of larger policy shifts. Germany’s regional elections have brought the growing influence of parties outside the traditional mainstream into focus, while France’s presidential election could shape the pace of future European integration. Why might fiscal spending fail to ease voter discontent, a
Washington Weekly Podcast: Missouri redistricting, GOP convention, 9-11 remembrance
This week, Shane talks about recent developments surrounding Missouri’s redistricting efforts, recaps President Trump’s keynote address at GOP midterm convention, and reflects on the 25th anniversary of the 9-11 attacks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Prices palooza'
It is a sad comment on the quality of communication by the US central bank that a single US consumer price inflation number can have so much sway over policy expectations. Single data points should not be relied on to this extent. If today’s data does not produce a US rate hike in September, disinflationary forces may keep rates on hold this year. If rates are raised, a second rate hike would prob
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy and promises'
The ECB is almost certain to repeat its earlier policy rate error and unnecessarily raise interest rates. There is unlikely to be any inflation or economic growth impact, but a further rate increase erodes borrowers’ ability to manage future economic crises. This should be the last error, unless oil prices get so high the ECB feels it needs to create a recession in the non-oil economy to create no
Top of the Morning: State of the US Consumer & Back to School trends
Sunny Mehra, Consumer Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to provide a health check on the US consumer, including a look a recent spending trends and overall sentiment. Sunny reflects on the 2026 back to school shopping season, and previews how retailers are preparing for the upcoming holidays. Plus, a look at positioning preferences across the US Consumer Discreti
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 72)
On this week’s episode, we catch up with Burkhard following his recent visit to Hamburg, Germany as he shares takeaways from meetings held with families and their family officers where they discussed family wealth, family governance and generational transfers. Burkhard also recites the poem “IF” and explains how the messaging relates to the art of investing.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Market and non-market inflation forces'
China’s August consumer and producer price inflation was slightly higher. The suggestion is not that better demand is driving up prices, but that global inflation forces are being allowed to trickle into domestic pricing.
Top of the Morning: Election Watch 2026 - Something old, something new
Kurt and Shane drop by to discuss the two of the most consequential policy questions of the 2025 mid-term election cycle - something old (Social Security), and something new (Artificial Intelligence). These two issues differ greatly in age and character, but voters in both parties share concerns about each. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Off
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trading carefully'
China’s July trade data showed ongoing growth in exports—some of this reflects re-exporting. The gap between what China says it is selling to the US and what the US admits to buying from China has reached extraordinary levels. China’s market share of US non-oil imports is 13.2% (China export data) or 8.4% (US import data). This suggests China’s US customers have become adept at avoiding tariffs, s
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Monetary policy and forever wars'
Markets’ responses to last Friday’s US employment report rebuke US monetary policy communication. The report showed strong payrolls growth, but unemployment rates drifted very slowly higher. The labor market is not creating accelerating wages. Market rate hike expectations increased, but the decision is still essentially a coin toss. With a clearly communicated framework for monetary policy, marke
Signal over Noise: To hike or not to hike
With inflation and labor data providing a mixed picture on the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the Fed faces a closely balanced decision between a rate hike and a hold. This episode explores what either outcome could mean for the yield curve, equity valuations, and portfolio positioning in an environment of uncertain policy outlook.
Washington Weekly Podcast: Open-Source AI Leadership Act, Funding Bill, US-Iran War
Shane drops by ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend to update on this week’s developments up on Capitol Hill, including Congressional efforts to keep the government funded, and progress on the Open-Source AI Leadership Act. Plus, an update on renewed military tensions between the US and Iran. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Dani
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Talking calmly'
In the unnecessarily uncertain world of US monetary policy, we heard from Federal Reserve Governor Waller. Waller signaled a desire for unchanged policy, as disinflation forces seem to continue. If disinflation ceased, then Waller would reconsider. This is similar to New York Fed President Williams’ outlook. These two Fed members command more respect than some other Fed members, and their words mo
What is the electrification of everything? with Paul Baiocchi of SS&C ALPS Advisors
Paul Baiocchi, Head of ETF Distribution with SS&C ALPS Advisors, drops by UBS Studios for a wide-ranging discussion around “the electrification of everything”, including a look at the opportunity-set, risk considerations, and how to think about investing in the theme. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fun with foreign exchange'
The yen has been gyrating amidst speculation about intervention in the markets and the possibility of more aggressive action by the Bank of Japan. A Japanese market holiday looms. Intervention only changes a currency’s value if there is a speculative attack to defeat (there is not) or if fundamentals change. Interest rates are a relevant fundamental, but one of many.
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 71)
While on a visit to Portugal, Burkhard drops by to highlight the factors that have contributed to the country’s economic success, and what investors should know. Burkhard also reflects on the Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium speech last Friday, and how markets responded.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Any bond traders over 40?'
Crude oil prices continue to move higher amid ongoing fighting in the Gulf. US gasoline prices have not moved much higher, because they did not move much lower when crude oil prices fell. US President Trump’s seeming willingness to overlook record low approval ratings and the threat of losing the midterm elections is challenging markets’ optimism bias.
Top of the Morning: Venezuela - Extraordinary announcement, many open questions
Following the recently announced historic oil agreement between the United States and Venezuela, there are many open questions around how and when a deal will ultimately come together, along with the implications to energy markets and global investors. Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets from the UBS Chief Investment Office, provides some clarity around these questions,
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The AI boom unabated'
Low level fighting in the Gulf war is keeping oil prices at a higher level. The United Arab Emirates (which was attacked by Iranian drones yesterday) suggested that this situation cannot be sustained. However, the longer this situation continues, the more it will alter economies in the region—with implications for post-war costs.
Washington Weekly Podcast: Ratcliffe-Moscow meeting, US midterms update, US legislative agenda
As the Congressional summer recess concludes and lawmakers return to Washington DC, there is no shortage of agenda items to address, in parallel to efforts on the campaign trail ahead of the US midterm elections in November. Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor from Governmental Affairs US, outlines the legislative priorities of Congress, along with shares what the latest polling
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Jackson Hole reflections
As we head towards the unofficial end of summer, markets continue to be supplied with ample news to digest - spanning policy developments out of the recent Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to key inflation and labor market datapoints on the horizon. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation for the Americas from the UBS Chief Investments office, discusses these factors and what it all means for CIO’s
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More hawkish, less depth'
The US and Iran have been trading missile exchanges in the Gulf, pushing oil back over USD 90 per barrel. US President Trump posted a AI-generated video of Kharg Island being destroyed, but there appears to have been no attack in the Iranian facility and the muted nature of the hostilities has created a muted market response.
Signal over Noise: How to position for the physical AI era
Advances in AI are beginning to move beyond digital tasks and into physical AI, raising the question of where value could accrue as machines become more adaptable in real-world environments. This episode explores how faster on-the-job learning could reshape automation, the hardware required to support it, and the investment implications across the emerging robotics supply chain.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Marshmallows and monetary policy'
Amidst the toasting of marshmallows at the Jackson Hole summer camp for economists, there are some hopes Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will offer a sensible structure for thinking about US monetary policy. Warsh’s communication style, telling investors “you figure it out”, is not working, creating uncertainty and introducing an unnecessary risk premium into financial markets.
Top of the Morning: The investment implications of data center regulation
AI data-center development is unlikely to stop, but the rules of engagement are changing. Local opposition, ratepayer concerns, and permitting scrutiny are shifting the debate from whether projects should be built to how costs, benefits, and community impacts should be allocated. Hear insights from Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, Barry McAlinden, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Jean
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Toll time'
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard reported that Iran and Oman have agreed to share revenues from tolls on shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz—once the strait reopens. The announcement stresses that Iran is likely to keep stricter control over the strait after the war, but investors expect that. The announcement does not, of itself, suggest an imminent reopening of the strait.
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Policy Endgame
Higher interest rates and government finances have been in the spotlight over the past week, with investor attention focused on possible policy responses this week and beyond. Financial markets have been struck by these developments, though have remained resilient as the summer nears an end. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, reflects on these de
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How to survive an affordability crisis'
Iran and Oman are close to agreeing on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. While this may not signal an immediate reopening of the strait, it does suggest Iran is considering reopening the strait. Crude oil prices have fallen (although gasoline prices in the US remain comfortably over USD 4 per US gallon).
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