UBS On-Air: Market Moves
UBS On-Air: Market Moves is a podcast that explores market behavior beyond the daily ticker. It features conversations designed to broaden listeners' thinking about financial markets. The show is produced by UBS's Client Strategy Office.
Episodes
Top of the Morning: Fixed Income - Resilience, recalibration, and remedies
Leslie joins to spotlight recent market conditions and how they have impacted the repricing and recalibration of fixed income assets. We also reflect on the hawkish commentary delivered from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh during his first press conference, and what will the Fed be focused on through year-end. Plus, a second-half fixed income market outlook, and a review of positioning recommendations.
Washington Weekly Podcast: Budget resolution, Crypto bill, Government funding deadline
Shane drops by for a timely update on a variety of topics as it relates to Capitol Hill, including where Congress stands on passing a budget resolution for defense and farm aid, a potential vote on bi-partisan crypto legislation, and efforts to avoid another government shutdown. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host Daniel Cassidy
Top of the Morning: Commodities - From investment rationale to portfolio reality
As investor interest in commodities has reached a multi-year high, Asset Allocation Strategist, Ian Spencer, joins to review commodity basics, evaluates various investment rationales for adding commodities to a portfolio, explores portfolio construction considerations including allocation size and funding approaches, and summarizes investment recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 67)
As the summer season continues, Burkhard shares his thoughts on recent trends across global equity markets by outlining the factors behind volatility and what might support a recovery. Plus, some takeaways from a recent visit to Qatar as the US-Iran conflict persists and oil is once again on the rise. We conclude with some final thoughts on the World Cup and the tournament’s outcome this past we
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The return of the armchair generals'
Iran struck tankers attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, potentially undermining shipowners’ confidence in US protection. The Houthi struck at tankers in the Red Sea—this has always been a key area of vulnerability. Investors are likely to look for US conciliation as a de-escalation signal, and absent that have pushed oil prices higher.
Top of the Morning: Municipal Market - Looking good at halftime
Following the outperformance of munis during 1H26 relative to other US fixed income assets, Sudip and Jeannine join to share performance expectations for the balance of the year, and share how to think about positioning. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassi
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Tariff time?'
Inside Washington DC the current focus seems to be trade tariffs, although the affordability crisis continues to be the focus in the wider economy. US President Trump suggested US consumers of imported generic pharmaceuticals would have to pay a 100% tariff from August 2027, and 200% from August 2029. The US has notably higher health care costs relative to developed European economies, and such a
House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management
Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 15.07.26
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Sound and fury'
US President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on US importers of products from Canada, without exempting products covered by the latest iteration of the NAFTA trade deal. If implemented, the tax would probably push up US consumer prices quite quickly. However, markets offered a muted response—the Canadian dollar and US inflation-linked bonds remaining relatively calm. Investors seem incline
Top of the Morning: The AI Economy - A roadmap
As investors now operate within the AI economy, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas and Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, join to share a framework on how to navigate it. We also discuss how to assess the economic impacts of AI, along with a look at portfolio construction through an AI lens. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Signal over Noise: Why the semiconductor pullback does not mean an AI glut
Semiconductors have seen a drop over the past month, raising the question of whether markets are starting to price in a real AI glut or simply reassessing a powerful rally. This episode explores why AI demand may prove more resilient than the recent sell-off suggests, where the real constraints are emerging across the infrastructure stack, and what that could mean for semiconductor stocks from her
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More violence, same response'
Violence has reignited in the Gulf, with Iran firing ballistic missiles at US military bases. Crude oil futures responded; Brent rose to over USD 90 per barrel. Of more political focus, Saturday’s US gasoline prices averaged almost USD 4 per US gallon. The geopolitical focus is whether the Red Sea route (taking about 7% of global oil supply) is attacked by Iranian allies.
Washington Weekly Podcast: SCOTUS testimony, Confirmation hearings, US-Iran
Following a busy week up on Capitol Hill, Shane reflects on the testimonies of Supreme Court Justices Elena Kagan and Amy Coney Barrett before the House Appropriations Committee, along with the Senate confirmation hearings of three Trump administrations nominees. Plus, an update on the US-Iran conflict as military strikes remain ongoing. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs A
Top of the Morning: CIO Equity Pulse - Monthly performance update & outlook
Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David updates on the three bull market growth drivers, shares expectations for th
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Prices and productivity'
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh testified to Congress—at times sounding like a Bundesbank member, with a vehement denunciation of inflation. Warsh was keen to say the Fed was solely responsible for inflation—that is challenged by Fed research ascribing roughly 1ppt of last year’s inflation to US tariffs. Warsh also displayed a troubling fascination with the productivity pixie of artificial intelligenc
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The politics of price expectations'
US Michigan consumer sentiment data is a weak economic signal. It does have political punch, via the inflation expectations measure. Consumers focus on the price of frequent purchases (food and fuel), and tend to fixate on the price level. Most consumers will have a “fair” price in mind as a reference, and for gasoline prices that is probably around USD 2.50 per US gallon. Gasoline remains well ab
Across the Pond: From conflict to compromise - What a Middle East deal could mean for markets
Hostilities in the Middle East have flared up again, disrupting shipping and renewing concerns about energy prices, inflation, and global growth. But both the US and Iran still have powerful economic and political incentives to avoid a return to all-out war. Why does diplomacy remain the most likely endgame - and what could a lasting agreement mean for investors? In the latest episode of Across th
Top of the Morning: Life insurance as part of a broader legacy plan
Traditional IRAs can be powerful retirement savings vehicles, but they may not always be the most tax-efficient asset for beneficiaries to inherit. Ainsley Carbone and Justin Waring join to discuss one strategy that may help address that challenge - using IRA distributions to fund life insurance as part of a broader legacy plan. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Top of the Morning: Summer rally setup for preferreds
Frank drops by for a performance update and outlook for the preferreds market, including a look at positioning considerations and recommendations, and what to be mindful of when it comes to the interest rate environment. Featured is Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Free or fee'
US President Trump had declared the Strait of Hormuz open for free. Now Trump has declared it open for a 20% fee. Shipping data suggests there was less-than-universal belief in free safe passage through Hormuz on Monday. It is unlikely ships will go full steam ahead to take the same risks while paying a high tax. A 20% fee would be about 15 times the mooted Iranian charge, and (as a proportionate
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Summer check-up
Jason rejoins to weigh in on recent market activity and drivers, spanning geopolitics, to the Fed, to macro data. Plus, thoughts on this week’s key inflation data, Congressional testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the beginning of the Q2 corporate earnings season, and more. We end with guidance around portfolio positioning in consideration of all these factors. Featured is Jason Draho, Head o
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Here we go again'
The US declared the Strait of Hormuz open. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Investors have responded with a muted reaction. Oil prices are up, but not in an economically meaningful way. Shipping traffic volumes seem to give more credibility to the Iranian version, but investors’ optimism bias remains. There is an assumption that the political pain of gasoline prices in the US (which have
Signal over Noise: Beyond the IPO: Five signals of long-term success
This episode explores what drives the variation in IPO performance. Drawing on 45 years of post-IPO data, it examines what separates the small group of major wealth-creating IPOs from the average new listing, which often disappoints. It highlights five signals that have historically helped identify stronger performers and considers how these characteristics can help investors assess where long-ter
Washington Weekly Podcast: US-Iran, NATO summit, Congress
Shane drops by for a timely update on renewed strikes between the US and Iran, and how the conflict might evolve from here. We also touch on takeaways from this week’s annual NATO summit, and look at where Congress stands on the SAVE America Act. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Could go up, could go down'
Fresh US-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices higher, to levels experienced when the memorandum of misunderstanding was signed (10% above pre-war levels). Markets question the strength of the US position, allowing the optimism bias to cling on. Global behavior adapted during the war, mitigating the economic damage of renewed hostilities.
Across the Pond: UK politics in flux
The UK is once again in the spotlight, with another leadership transition as Keir Starmer steps down less than two years after winning a substantial majority and Andy Burnham emerges as the clear frontrunner. But with this being the seventh prime minister in a decade, questions are mounting about what’s driving this constant leadership turnover, how Brexit continues to shape the party system, and
Top of the Morning: Legislative roundup, Midterm elections, & America 250
Kurt and Shane rejoin for a timely roundup of DC-related topics, including an inventory of legislative focuses of Congress (including a look at what may be achieved ahead of the summer recess), potential outcome scenarios of the US midterm elections in November (and what the markets are focusing on). Plus, reflections America 250 celebrations and American innovations over the course of its 250-ye
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More misunderstandings'
US attacks on Iran follow from Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping. It is not a great look for the memorandum of misunderstanding. Oil futures prices rose—to levels not seen for two weeks. A stronger reaction has been avoided, perhaps because of how investors view US President Trump’s political position. US retail gasoline prices remain well above pre-war levels, and it is the pre-war lev
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 66)
Fresh off summer holiday travels across Nordic countries, Burkhard rejoins the podcast to reflect on his experiences, and weighs in on the condition of the region’s economies and markets. Plus, as the World Cup tournament rolls on, Burkhard shares thoughts on what athletes can teach leaders and investors.
Top of the Morning: US Financials - Stress test results & earnings preview
Jeff and Barry join to provide reflections and takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s 2026 annual stress test results for US banks and financial institutions (through an equity and credit lens). Plus, a preview of the upcoming corporate earnings season for US financials. Featured are Jeff Harwood, Financials Equity Strategist Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas,
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Political interference'
Politics can influence which economic data is considered important. Today’s US trade data is not economically significant, but in the trade tariff era it has assumed political importance. US exports should benefit from oil trade, but US consumers’ thirst for imports remains unquenched. This may feed into the tariff debate.
Talking Markets Podcast with Bill Sterling of GW&K Investment Management
Bill Sterling serves as Global Strategist at GW&K Investment Management. Bill shares his thoughts on a range of factors top of mind for investors and that are influencing market momentum as we have reached the midpoint of 2026. We also cover a market outlook, and touch on positioning preferences. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Top of the Morning: 250 years of US innovation: Capital Markets
The Buttonwood tree, under which New York stockbrokers gathered in 1792, symbolizes the origin of a market that would expand far beyond its modest beginnings and eventually become part of a global financial system centered on the US dollar and shaped at Bretton Woods. Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas form UBS Chief Investment Office, explains the evolution and global impact
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Defense economics'
Defense spending is a focus as NATO leaders meet on Wednesday. Obviously, total defense spending is rising in most economies. Markets tend to get too excited about what that means for growth. Defense spending drips into the economy slowly. It will take the US more than three years to rebuild some of its missile stockpiles after the Gulf war, spreading the economic consequences.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trust the trends'
The US employment report was a convenient reminder not to put too much emphasis onto a single unreliable data release. There were notable revisions, and the details showed swings in seasonal adjustments moving the figures in a rather maladjusted manner. The trends are still the same. In an uncertain policy environment, companies seem reluctant to hire, but are also not rushing to fire. The labor m
Washington Weekly Podcast: SCOTUS rulings, Legislative focuses, USA 250
On this week’s edition, Shane highlights how the United States of America has been celebrating its 250th birthday. We also review some of this week’s final opinions issued by the Supreme Court, along with take inventory of legislative items Congress is working to address ahead of the quickly approaching summer recess. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental
Top of the Morning: June Jobs Report & macro update
A review of the latest employment data and what it reveals about the health of the US labor market. Plus, a review and preview of other notable macro data points of interest. Featured is Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy and data problems'
With the US not working tomorrow, we get June labor market data today. The level of inaccuracy in the data means the monthly changes should not be taken too seriously. The trends are still the same—not too much hiring, not too much firing. The general level of policy uncertainty over the past 18 months encouraged paralysis of corporate decision-making.
House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management
Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 18.06.26
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Hints of hosiery'
At congressional confirmation hearings, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh famously denied being US President Trump’s sock puppet. Markets will scour Warsh’s comments today for any hint of hosiery. The desire to prove political independence may give a hawkish tone. Warsh already signaled a disinclination to offer policy guidance (despite the risk this causes market volatility, raising the cost of capital
Talking Markets Podcast Series (Preferreds) with Bob Giangregorio (Spectrum) & Frank Sileo (UBS CIO)
Bob Giangregorio is a Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Spectrum Asset Management. Bob joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Dull resilience'
The narrative of today’s generally “second tier” data releases is of a global economy that is resilient if somewhat dull. This might seem remarkable in the face of war, oil price gyrations, and unpredictable US policy. However, middle-income consumers in developed economies began this year in a solid position. Oil and the US economy have become less important over time. People are very good at ada
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Second half outlook
As the second half of 2026 soon approaches, Jason spends time this week outlining CIO’s macro and market expectations (including expectations for Fed policy under Chair Warsh), and reviews positioning recommendations along with key messages. Plus, a look at the drivers behind recent market volatility. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host:
Signal over Noise: What US history tells us about AI capex
This episode explores what historical US innovation can teach us about the trajectory of AI CapEx. Drawing on the 250 years of US innovation series, it looks at three key lessons from past capital cycles, from railroads to electrification to the internet. It highlights how innovation cycles tend to follow a similar pattern, how competition drives investment dynamics, and where value ultimately eme
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Crude and machismo'
Oil futures prices have been largely indifferent to the weekend’s events in the Gulf and Russia. Investors managed to contain their surprise at Iran and the US trading military strikes. US policy has been highly volatile in several areas over the past 18 months, preparing investors for instability in implementing the Versailles memorandum. Russian President Putin’s admission that Ukrainian drone s
Washington Weekly Podcast: Housing bill, Primary elections, US-Iran update
Shane drops by to reflect on this week’s primary election results and highlight implications to the midterms in November. We also discuss whether the US and Iran can finalize a deal over the next 60 days to end the conflict. Plus, a look at this week’s legislative developments and gridlock around a housing and voting bill.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Tech vibes'
Technology stocks have had another episode of weakness, with trading in the South Korean market suspended after an 8% decline. This is still not enough to change perceptions of consumer spending —yesterday’s US data was a reminder that monthly cash savings have provided the resources to support consumer spending. However, a moderation of real world investment in tech does have economic implication
Landscape for Net-lease Investing with Gary Rozier (Blue Owl) & Jon Woloshin (UBS CIO)
Gary Rozier, Senior Managing Director and member of the Real Assets Management Team at Blue Owl Capital is hosted by Jon Woloshin, UBS CIO Americas Real Estate & Lodging Equity Strategist, at the 1285 podcast studio in New York for a wide-ranging conversation on the landscape for net-lease Investing. Gary and Jon discuss key considerations for net-lease investors, the types of properties best
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Oil prices—past, present, and futures'
Crude oil futures reached pre-war levels, anticipating future oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Current oil flows are only a fraction of pre-war levels, and oil refineries refine actual oil, not hypothetical future oil. Consumer (refined) gasoline prices in the US remain around a third higher than pre-war prices (in the UK, petrol prices are around 10% higher, reflecting different tax struct
Top of the Morning: UBS Asian Investment Conference takeaways
Having recently attended the UBS Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong, Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, stops by the studio to share reflections and takeaways. We cover some key points of interest from the conference, including how factors such as geopolitics and AI are influencing the region. Plus, how the overall experience reshaped Alejo’s investment views. Host: Danie
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Murky situations'
US Treasury Secretary Bessent warmly endorsed Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, describing Warsh as competent and capable of lowering inflation. Such endorsements are not unusual, but as Warsh had to deny being US President Trump’s “sock puppet” this sort of intervention might shape perceptions of political influence. US inflation should fall as the inflationary effects of administration policies (tari
Fixed Income Conversation Corner: Private Credit edition with Dan Oneglia (Blackstone) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
A wide-ranging conversation on the landscape for private credit investing, including performance drivers, risk considerations, and what’s important for investors to focus on. Featured are Dan Oneglia, Global CIO of Liquid Credit Strategies, CEO and Co-CIO of Blackstone Multi-Asset Credit & Income Fund with Blackstone, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with th
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Equity volatility, economists’ indifference'
Technology equities exhibited some volatility overnight (South Korea’s markets falling quite noticeably). This is not caused by shifting economic expectations, allowing economists to exhibit indifference. It is too soon to be talking about wealth effects, and for now, consumers’ desire to consume should outweigh any consequences of market volatility.
Top of the Morning: The Great Wealth Transfer - An introduction
An introduction to what The Great Wealth Transfer is, the implications of immense wealth changing hands, and how wealth managers must adapt to fulfill the needs and preferences of future wealth holders. Over a multiple part series of episodes, Marianna Mamou, Head of Advice Beyond Investing with the UBS Chief Investment Office, will break down these topics further. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Signal over Noise: A new Fed framework
This episode explores the signals in the most consequential Fed debut in nearly two decades: what happened, how markets reacted, and where to go from here. The Fed held rates steady for a fourth consecutive meeting, while Warsh was more hawkish than expected, emphasizing price stability and the Fed’s institutional credibility alongside a shift away from the easing bias. It also examines how he opt
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Sticking with the optimistic bias'
There has been a heated exchange over the situation in the Gulf this weekend. However, US Vice President Vance is in Switzerland to talk with Iranian officials. There have been cautiously positive statements from Iran on the talks, and given market perceptions of the balance of power, that fact (plus the inherent market bias to optimism) has produced lower oil prices.
Top of the Morning: CIO Equity Pulse - Monthly performance update & outlook
Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David discusses how much new equity issuance there could be this year from both I
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Little of substance'
Yesterday, US Vice-President Vance denied being the “fall guy” for the position the US finds itself in with Iran, but has chosen not to fly to Switzerland for talks at the moment. Markets assume delayed negotiations would just extend the ceasefire, and are fixated on the volume of shipping (and oil) through Hormuz.
Washington Weekly Podcast: US-Iran memorandum of understanding, G-7 summit takeaways
Shane drops by to reflect on the wide range of topics covered during this week’s G-7 summit in France, including renewed efforts by leaders to end the Russia-Ukraine war. We also discuss the fourteen-point plan included within the agreed to US-Iran memorandum of understanding, along with what the months ahead might have in store. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor,
Top of the Morning: June FOMC meeting recap & macro update
Following this week’s FOMC meeting - the first led by new Chairman, Kevin Warsh - Andrew drops by to share an assessment of the statement and press conference, along with an outlook for monetary policy. Plus, a health check on the US economy as we look towards the second half of 2026. Featured is Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Say more'
The Federal Reserve meeting produced a hawkish impression, with a strong focus on fighting inflation. That may put Fed Chair Warsh at odds with US President Trump, as the Fed’s own research suggested US tariffs have added to inflation. Near-term policy changes seem unlikely, given the number of proposed committees Warsh is establishing.
Talking Markets Podcast (Secondaries market) with Nate Walton, Ares Management
Nate Walton is a Partner and serves as the Head of Private Equity Secondaries for Ares Management. Nate drops by the UBS podcast studio in New York for a comprehensive discussion around the secondaries market - including the market evolution, supply-demand dynamics, return drivers, manager selection considerations, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fed fun'
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged today. The Bank of Japan started with an accommodative stance, and has moved toward neutral. The European Central Bank started with a neutral stance, and unnecessarily moved toward a restrictive policy. The Fed started the year with a mildly restrictive policy, and there is no necessity for change.
Top of the Morning: Muni Market Guide - Leading the pack
We discuss the factors behind YTD muni performance relative to other fixed income sectors, against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, rate volatility, and elevated supply. Plus, a look at opportunities within prepaid gas bonds. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How to do a rate hike'
As expected, the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1%, a level last seen in the distance past of 1995. This was a different move from the recent ECB policy error—unlike Europe, Japan began the year with an accommodative monetary stance. The rate increase is part of a process of returning to neutral, and is broadly considered appropriate.
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - In the Knick of time
While it was an exciting weekend for sports fans, it was also a notable weekend on the geopolitical front, with the US and Iran having agreed to a deal that will re-open the Strait of Hormuz. We discuss what this means for the markets, along with what investors will watch for during this week’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting. Plus, a review of CIO’s current positioning recommendations. Feature
Signal over Noise: Model disabled: What government restrictions of frontier models mean for the equity markets
A US policy restricting access to a cutting edge AI model led to a sudden shutdown for all users last week, raising questions about what AI regulation means for markets. This episode explores how concerns around misuse, including jailbreaking and cyberattacks, could impact model development, access, and competition across regions, and what this means for markets in the near term.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rise and fall'
The announcement of an Iran-US deal (to be signed on Friday) has supported risk markets and allowed oil prices to fall moderately. The deal comes before strategic petroleum reserves were exhausted, limiting the economic damage from the war. Iran will not toll shipping through Hormuz for 60 days—after that it is not clear, but tolls are not likely to be a major economic cost.
Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - The Lending Powering AI Investment
We discuss the factors that have led to a pronounced repricing of US interest rates, an outlook for monetary policy, and CIO’s current fixed income positioning recommendations. Plus, a look at the lending that is powering AI investment, and the implications to credit markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income St
Washington Weekly Podcast: US-Iran, US trade policy, FISA, & Secure America Act
Shane drops by to update on the latest surrounding a potential deal signing over the weekend to end the US-Iran conflict, along with updates on recent legislative developments spanning the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and Secure America Act. Plus, a look a renewed efforts from the Trump administration to enact new tariffs. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Carrying on, without keeping calm'
The expected error from the ECB was accompanied by rhetoric citing concerns about oil price pressures broadening throughout the Eurozone economy. There is no evidence of this reported broadening—non-oil prices should be expected to pass on oil-related costs, and only a wage-spiral or profit-led inflation would constitute a broadening of inflation pressures. These are notable by their absence. None
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How bad is the ECB error?'
The ECB is almost certain to commit a policy mistake today. Raising rates will not change Eurozone inflation or inflation expectations. This policy is stuck in an unhelpful 2022 mindset. Consumers will continue to reduce savings rates to pay for higher oil prices. The main consequence of today’s error is to increase fragility in the economy, rather than doing more serious damage.
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 65)
On this episode of Viewpoints, with the commencement of the World Cup tournament just days away, Burkhard outlines the economics of soccer and the highly anticipated event. We also touch on the direction of interest rates, and the prospects for newly minted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh having to begin his term with a rate-hike, rather than a rate-cut.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation bonanza'
May US headline consumer price inflation is expected to rise as the price of the Iran war is being passed through relatively quickly to consumers. A supply shock might have a delayed effect (with profit margins being squeezed), but the very visible cause of price increases and the precedents of the pandemic supply shocks and tariffs make it easier for firms to pass on higher costs without delay (l
House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management
Join Jeff Hans, Senior Portfolio Manager for the House View Equity Portfolios with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update and outlook for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 27.05.26
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade time'
China’s May exports were stronger than expected, with the seemingly insatiable demand of companies wanting to play with the nice shiny new toy of AI. Export data to the US was flattered by comparison to the volatility around US tariff announcements last year. Recent months have also shown strength in exports of the electrification big three—solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles.
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Sentiment drivers
The string of nine consecutive positive weekly returns for the S&P 500 ended last week, with Friday being one of the worst days all year after the release of the May jobs report. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to discuss the jobs data, the market response, and what it means for the investment outlook. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Market moves more than economic shifts'
Bond and equity markets have weakened in Asian trading. There seems to be no single cause, rather a general sense of increasing risk. Economically, the drop in equities is not that significant—in theory, there might be negative wealth effects, but this is too small a move and most consumers have been relying on lowering savings rates, not equity liquidation to finance their consumption.
Signal over Noise: Playing offense and defense through healthcare
Health care has not seen the same stock market traction as AI and power and resources over the past year, but continues to serve as a key ingredient to a diversified portfolio and a source of stability. This episode explores how the sector is not just a defensive play, with the pharma industry moving toward innovation-driven growth led by GLP-1 drugs. At the same time, advances in artificial intel
Washington Weekly Podcast: Primary elections, Legislative agenda, Geopolitics
Shane drops by to recap this week’s primary election outcomes, and shares thoughts on potential outcome scenarios for the November mid-term elections. Plus, a review of Congressional legislative priorities over the next few months, and an update on where negotiations stand to end the US-Iran war. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Da
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