Sharp China with Bill Bishop
Sharp China with Bill Bishop is a weekly podcast that explores how China's politics, economy and foreign policy shape the world. Host Andrew Sharp and Sinocism founder Bill Bishop unpack the latest news out of Beijing, from elite politics and regulation to trade and geopolitics. Each episode offers context and analysis aimed at listeners who want to understand where China is heading and what it means globally. The show draws on Bill Bishop's long experience as a China watcher and newsletter writer.
Episodes
(Preview) The Limited Potential for a Pacing Deal; MSS on PRC AI Risks; Distillation and Data Security; The Party’s Approach to Social Media
On today’s show Andrew and Bill look at several dimensions of the PRC’s approach to AI. First: The various reasons a push for an agreement with U.S. labs to “pace” AI development is unlikely to bear fruit and the history of the CPC’s approach to control over technology. Then: The head of the MSS offers a view into CPC concerns around political security risks and data risks, while Anthropic CEO Dar
China’s Global Strategy; Tragedy on the Nepal-Tibet Border; A 19-1 Vote at the G-20; TikTok Dodges Congress
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a perspective on PRC strategy under Xi, including what the party wants from global institutions, how the PRC differs from the U.S., and political security as a paramount priority. Then: Thoughts on the heartbreaking flood at the Nepal-Tibet border, including the party’s response, censorship and data sharing, and the realities of the geography in question.
(Preview) Five US-China (and Russia) Questions; Cabbage with Formaldehyde; The Continuing Tax Crackdown; Unitree Stock Down 45%
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a series of questions on the US and China, including a look at the likely toothless threats implied by Trump’s “Economic D-Day” agenda, China’s role or lack thereof in a breakdown between the US and Canada, questions about the next four weeks and four months of the relationship, and, unrelated to the US, what to watch for as Xi heads to the SCO Summit whe
Wang Yi Visits South Korea; Remembering Zhu Rongji; US-China Ahead of Xi’s Visit; How China Monitors Foreigners
On today’s show Andrew and Bill with Wang Yi’s visit to South Korea this week, including the fortunate timing for the PRC in the wake of President Trump’s decision to scale back joint US-ROK exercises, PRC concerns around North Korea, and dynamics on the peninsula that are shifting in ways that aren’t entirely clear. Then: Zhu Rongji’s legacy, a week of nostalgia for the Zhu/Jiang era, and the unc
(Preview) A Memory-Maker Makes History; New Robot Rules; The Open Weights Debate Rages; End of July News and Notes
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to CXMT’s IPO success this week, including responses from legislators in Washington and the stakes of Apple’s continued lobbying fight to relax restrictions on US companies working with PRC memory firms. Then: The FCC announces rules restricting the import of new, foreign-made robots and power inverters in a move to curb security risks and fuel
(Preview) Kimi Madness; Xi’s AI Vision and US Questions; Trump’s Election Data Claims; The Connected Vehicle Security Act
On today’s show Andrew and Bill focus on the arrival of Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model and the “DeepSeek 2.0 concerns” among investors and policymakers. Topics include: The incoherent U.S. approach to the open source AI ecosystem, levers the U.S. side could pull to thwart Chinese progress, and why the Trump Administration might be reluctant to take those steps. Then: Xi’s keynote address at the World AI
(Preview) K-Shaped Economic Data And Its Implications; Ma Xingrui News; Closing Window for Open Source AI?; The SCS and International Law
On today’s show, Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the economic data released by the PRC this week, including slower-than-expected growth, the Party’s response to the status quo, export-powered growth that is widening trade imbalances, and the questions all of this will raise for foreign policymakers. From there: The Party’s findings on Ma Xingrui, questions that remain unanswered, and cadre risk a
A Missile Test and New PLA Generals; The CITIC Plane Crash; America’s Taiwan Interests; Guo Wengui Jailed and Ezra Jin Released
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Monday’s SLBM test from the PLA Navy, including questions surrounding its timing and location, regional angst, and a reminder that the PLA continues to enhance its nuclear triad capabilities. Then: Two new PLA generals are promoted while rectification continues and five CMC seats remain vacant, and reactions to last week’s shocking CITIC plane crash and a
(Preview) Party Building and Xi’s Dominance; Memory Chips and ASML Accusations; Germany’s Puzzling Push for Plaza Accords
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building and further signs that one year after from a summer of rumors and one year out from the 21st Party Congress, Xi’s power remains entrenched as ever. Then: MOFCOM and the Ministry of Finance announced restrictions on several dozen US firms, the global memory chip shortage is an opportunity for CXMT and YMTC, what to make
(Preview) Xi Goes to North Korea; Inspecting Xinjiang; A $295 Billion AI Buildout; The Pentagon Alleges PLA Links for Alibaba and Others
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Xi’s visit to North Korea this week, including the conspicuous silence on North Korea’s nuclearization, Kim Jong Un’s assistance to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Beijing as Kim’s top priority, U.S.-Japan dialogue on regional nuclear threats, and an email about the PRC as a communist country. From there: CPPCC Chairman Wang Huning leads an inspec
Seizing The Commanding Heights; Decoding Shangri-La Dialogue; Europe Moots Trade Policy; The PRC Expels a New York Times Journalist
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping’s call to seize the commanding heights of science, technology, and industry across six industries of the future, as well as the State Council’s move to release a 34-article law that will implicate domestic firms, foreign businesses and potentially foreign governments, as well as PRC financial institutions and individual investors. From there: R
(Preview) Social Mobility and Hukou Reform; US Halts Taiwan Arms Sales?; Ongoing Pressure on Japan; An American Xinhua Journalist Arrested
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that Beijing moved to further ease hukou restrictions, including why this is a welcome change for millions of Chinese citizens, as well as a look at questions and challenges as the reforms are implemented. Then: A report that Chinese AI talent has been restricted from leaving China, while Beijing continues its efforts to control capital outflow a
(Preview) Constructing US-China Stability; Trump’s Taiwan Comments and More Summit Takeaways; Putin in China
On today’s show Andrew and Bill parse the messaging from both sides of last week’s US-China summit in Beijing. Topics include: What the PRC means by “a constructive relationship of strategic stability,” why the US side adopted the framing as well, a relative absence of tangible deliverables, and why “a calculated stalling tactic from both sides designed to manage risk” may be a more accurate rende
10 Questions and Modest Expectations With Trump in China to Meet Xi Jinping
On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through 360 degrees of President Trump’s trip to Beijing this week. Topics include: Jensen Huang hitching a ride in Alaska, general expectations for deliverables after limited leaks and hurried advance planning, Trump’s reception in Beijing, and the limits of “upper hand” analysis. From there: A coterie of billionaire CEOs make the trip with Trump, a US Chamber
(Preview) Beijing Kills Meta’s Manus Deal; April Politburo Takeaways; Foreign Forces Afflicting the Youth; US Countermeasures Mounting
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the Meta-Manus deal will likely be unwound in its entirety in the wake of a ruling from the NDRC on Monday. Topics include: The legal grounding cited by Beijing, reports that Manus failed to seek regulatory approval prior to its relocation and acquisition, Mark Zuckerberg as the photo negative of Tim Cook, Beijing’s signal to the AI ecosyste
(Preview) Xi Wants the Strait of Hormuz Re-Opened; Cakes and An E-Commerce Crackdown; The Next Stage of Decoupling; The MATCH Act in Congress
On today’s show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the PRC’s posture amidst the ongoing war in Iran. Topics include: Xi’s call to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, an interdicted Iranian ship that may have been carrying missile precursors from China, Trump’s posture toward China three weeks before his summit in Beijing, and deals between the US and Indonesia and the US and the Philippines. Then: The SA
(Preview) A Ceasefire and Reports of PRC Pressure; Another Politburo Investigation; Mythos, DeepSeek, and a Token Crunch
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the tentative ceasefire in Iran and reports that the PRC applied pressure to the Iranians to defuse the tensions. Topics include: The lack of clarity on what the PRC actually did and why, China’s vote at the UN this week, why the PRC would like the war to end sooner rather than later, and relationships with other Gulf countries that may or may not change
The U.S., China and Iran; A PRC-Pakistan Peace Plan; KMT Chair Set to Visit China; Huawei, Manus and ZXMOTO
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with thoughts on China’s response to the war in Iran, including a peace plan co-authored with Pakistan, why the PRC is not necessarily interested in global leadership, how China sees a deepening U.S. rift with NATO countries, and President Trump’s visit to Beijing rescheduled for May 14th. From there: Context for the KMT Chair’s visit to China later this month
(Preview) A Giant Mess with Super Micro; Completely Correct Xiong’an Progress; The PRC’s Balancing Act on Iran; Manus, Apple and Router News
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with last week’s indictment of Wally Liaw, the co-founder of Super Micro, and its implications for US chip policy. Topics include: Incredible details from the indictment, US enforcement options, and bipartisan calls for government action on Nvidia exports to China and Southeast Asia. Then: Xi takes three Standing Committee members and three other Politburo mem
(Preview) The War in Iran and the Visit to Beijing; New DNI Assessments on Taiwan; Military Scientists Disappearing From Public View
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that President Trump has postponed his visit to Beijing amid the war in Iran, including why a delay made sense for both sides, a “Board of Trade” proposal amid signs of stability in Paris, and the uncertainty that pervades on both sides as the war in Iran continues. From there: Reactions to a DNI assessment on China’s reunification intentions, ne
(Preview) The ‘Raising a Lobster’ Frenzy; Iran and US-China as Trump’s Visit Looms; Two Sessions Takeaways
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the frenzy surrounding OpenClaw in China, including Beijing’s response, security concerns, liability questions, an object lesson in the Chinese market, and why Tencent looks like a potential winner as regulatory issues are sorted in the months to come. From there: Reports that Beijing is unhappy with the limited preparation in advance of Trump’s visit to
All Eyes on Iran; Two Sessions Questions; Alibaba, DeepSeek and Distillation; Another UK Spying Scandal
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the war in Iran and its implications for the PRC. Topics include: Upsides and downsides for China, why US strategy was likely related to Iran and not the PRC, questions about the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran partnership and PRC global leadership, implications for Taiwan, why a Beijing visit from Donald Trump remains likely, and yet another US war in the Mid
(Preview) Pending Taiwan Arms Sales; Jimmy Lai Sentenced; Takaichi Secures a Supermajority; AI Models as Propaganda Vectors
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the reports that the PRC is threatening to scuttle Trump’s visit to Beijing over a second arms package from the U.S. to Taiwan, including thoughts on next moves from the U.S., how this arms shipment happened, and the PLA’s dangerous aerial maneuvers around Taiwan. From there: Reactions to the news that Jimmy Lai has been sentenced to 20 years in Hong Kong
The PLA Purges One Week Later; World Leaders Flock to Beijing; A Trump-Xi Phone Call; Panama Canal Resolution?
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with follow-up thoughts on the purges at the top of the PLA, including reactions to a New York Times piece on Xi’s “paranoia,” answers that have yet to materialize, He Weidong suicide rumors, and various theories on what any of this might signal. From there: Keir Starmer’s trip to Beijing, caution before drawing too many conclusions from the recent steps from
(Preview) 10 Questions on the Detention of Zhang Youxia, Corruption in the PLA, Rumors, Messaging, and Taiwan
On today’s show Andrew and Bill react to the news that the rumors were true, and CMC members Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are under investigation for corruption. Topics include: The timing of the announcement from the Defense Ministry, why this weekend’s news inspired such a volume of reactions around the world, a history of Xi’s crackdowns on the PLA, questions about rumors of a coup against Xi, r
(Preview) Canada and the New World Order; Second Order Questions for the US and EU; More Big Names Purged from the PLA?
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to a new “strategic partnership” between China and Canada, including thoughts on fissures in the West that are a win for China, Prime Minister Carney’s “new world order” comments, U.S. rhetoric that created the conditions for a thaw, and why this direction could be a decision Canadians come to regret. From there: The UK and countries in the EU c
(Preview) What’s at Stake for China in Iran; Canada’s PM in Beijing; Notes on Chips, Apps, and Drones
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the instability in Iran, including thoughts on Trump’s Truth Social post threatening 25% tariffs on Iran trade partners, why that threat is unlikely to materialize as additional US tariffs on Chinese goods, and the PRC’s concerns about oil access, investments, and regional stability as the situation continues to evolve in Tehran. From there: Chinese refin
China’s Venezuela Calculations; Japan’s Rare Earth Access; A Reported Pause on Nvidia Purchases; The Meta-Manus Deal Under Review
On today’s show Andrew and Bill return from the holidays and begin with the PRC’s reaction to the arrest of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. Topics include: PRC outrage and embarrassment, the propaganda value of the U.S. disregard for international law, oil questions, why most of the Taiwan takes were misplaced, looming tension at the Panama Canal, and Iran as a wildcard. From there: A Ministry of Com
(Preview) Xi Jinping Thought on Domestic Demand; Political Economy vs. the Actual Economy; The Stories of the Year and Questions for 2026
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Central Economic Work Conference, including the latest push to stimulate domestic demand, why consumption is intertwined with security, speculation surrounding Politburo member Ma Xingrui, and a reminder that many of the economic challenges facing China remain intertwined with politics. From there: More thoughts on the sale of H-200s to
(Preview) Trump’s Plan to Sell Advanced Chips to China; U.S. Concessions Piling Up Amid a Push for ‘Stability’; Macron and the EU Conundrum
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the US is greenlighting the sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to the PRC market. Topics include: Dubious claims in Trump’s Truth Social post announcing the news, searching for arguments in support of this policy change, the 25% of China revenue Nvidia will pay to the U.S. government, and waiting for Beijing’s response, including how many U.S. chip
Trump, Takaichi and a Game of Telephone; Japan Jawboning Continues; An Internet Governance Study Session; China Making Trade ‘Impossible’
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the call between Trump and Xi last week, a subsequent call between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and the PRC’s ongoing tensions with Japan. Topics include: Conflicting reports surrounding both calls last week, PRC rhetoric that continues to escalate, contested history surrounding Okinawa, and PRC behavior that may be clarifying for the
(Preview) A Maximalist Response to Japan's PM; More Bad Real Estate News; Leaked Warnings on Alibaba; Hasan Piker Touring China
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a week of escalating rhetoric in response to Japanese Prime Minister Sane Takaichi’s comments about a Taiwan contingency. Topics include: Memories of Senkakku Islands tensions in 2012, why protests in the streets are unlikely this time, possibilities to escalate and de-escalate from here, and possible PRC motivations for reacting so forcefully. From there
(Preview) US-China Follow-Through; New Xi Textbooks and a New Aircraft Carrier; A Wolf Warrior Greets Japan’s PM; More Setbacks for Nvidia
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the implementation of this month's deal between the US and China, including a variety of early indications that both sides intend to follow through with commitments made in South Korea, the PRC's clarification on its December 2024 export controls, and a report on the PRC implementing VEU system for rare earth exports to the US. From there: A variety of ne
The US-China Deal One Week Later: Why Short-Term Stability Is Likely, Costs and Benefits of Escalation, and More Adventures with Nvidia
On today's show Andrew and Bill break down the latest deal between the US and China, beginning with details from the White House over the weekend, why the PRC is likely happy with a tactical retreat and the new status quo, and why stability is likely at least through April. From there: Why the PRC was motivated to deal despite its goals of eliminating tariffs and export controls, clarity about Ame
(Preview) A Basic Consensus on Arrangements to Address US-China Concerns; The New Five-Year Plan Sounds Familiar; Nexperia as an Object Lesson
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the looming Trump-Xi meeting in Seoul, South Korea, and the "consensuses" agreed upon in Kuala Lampur this past weekend. Topics include: Treasury Scott Bessent's comments indicate that the recent rare earth export controls could be delayed by a year, questions about what the U.S. might have conceded to secure that delay, talk of removing fentanyl tariffs,
(Preview) The Questions Swirling Around the Fourth Plenum; PLA Purges Made Official; The Latest on the Trade War and Nexperia
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with questions surrounding the Fourth Plenum as it continues in Beijing this week. Topics include: The Party's messaging on past successes, a timeline for policy announcements in the days and weeks to come, steps the Party may take to address consumption with its next Five-Year Plan, and the full spectrum of possibilities surrounding Xi and his succession plan
(Preview) Q&A on the Trade War: Rare Earths Anxiety, PRC Motivations, Mutual Risks, and the Capitulation or Escalation Era
On today’s show Andrew and Bill react to the PRC’s announcement of expanded export controls on rare earths and related manufacturing equipment. Topics include: Why countries around the world were immediately concerned, clarifications offered from the PRC that may not allay those concerns, and why viewing these rules as a response to the recent BIS updates is overly simplistic. From there: The Amer
(Preview) Official Secrets and a Royal Mess in the UK; Trillion Dollar Rumors in the Trade War; 300,000 Sim Cards in New York and New Jersey
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a mounting scandal in the UK after prosecutors dropped charges against two men accused of spying for China. Topics include: Fingers pointed and claims that PM Keir Starmer and his Labour appointees were unwilling to present evidence of China as an "enemy,” ongoing reluctance to target PRC foreign agents under a new UK enforcement scheme, and reports of Be
TikTok in the Clear; Taiwan Questions and Soybean Angst; The K Visa Goes Live; Jensen Huang on China Hawks
On today’s Andrew and Bill begin with President Trump's executive order authorizing a proposal for a TikTok divestiture from ByteDance. Topics include: Why the proposed deal would be a win for ByteDance, China and the Trump administration, security concerns that haven't necessarily been addressed, and signals that opposition to the deal across D.C. is likely to be muted. Then: A report that the PR
(Preview) A Trump-Xi Call and Meetings to Follow; TikTok Details Clear as Mud; Arcteryx and a Tibetan Fireworks Controversy
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with last Friday's call between Trump and Xi. Topics include: Plans for a meeting in South Korea and a Trump visit to Beijing early next year, whether summits on the horizon will lead to a period of stabilization, and why both sides may see the status quo as advantageous. From there: Parsing the latest reports concerning the TikTok sale, including unresolved q
(Preview) A TikTok ‘Framework’ and Lots of Questions; Nvidia Uncertainty and Chip Countermeasures; The PRC Propaganda Strategy on US Platforms
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news of a “framework,” a consensus, and a possible deal to divest TikTok US from its parent company, ByteDance. Topics include: The many details yet to be resolved publicly, the unknown fate of the algorithm and its legal implications, messaging from both the US and PRC delegations in Madrid, the ways in which a deal would benefit ByteDance, and the d
(Preview) Five Questions After the 9.3 Parade; A Flurry of US-China Updates; Sports Consumption and the NBA’s Return to China
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by looking back at last week’s Victory Day parade. Topics include: The domestic messaging from the PRC, cold war imagery from a regime that denounces cold war thinking, questions about the EU perspective, the implications of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, North Korea's relationship to the PRC, a hot mic moment between Xi and Putin, and President Trump's
Xi Welcomes Putin and Modi at the SCO Summit; Perspective on the India and China Buzz; World War II and a 'Memory War'
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the SCO Summit, including Xi's announcement of the Global Governance Initiative (GGI), outreach to the global south, and the PRC's warming relationship with India as Modi's first trip to China in seven years spawns anxiety in the US, and a variety of structural tensions remain. From there: Context for Beijing's recent efforts to correct the
(Preview) US-China Talks in DC; Trump Welcomes PRC Students; Cambricon Momentum and H20s on Ice; What Beijing is Doing in New York City
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Li Chenggang in Washington for another round of meetings with American negotiators. Topics include: Outreach to soybean farmers and rumors of Boeing purchases, why the PRC may sense an opportunity for dealmaking, President Trump's plans to welcome 600,000 PRC students, 200% tariffs and the stakes surrounding rare earths, and more details on the EU-US trad
Two Weeks of Nvidia Angst; Stocks and Real Estate; Warming Relations with India?; Labubu and Soft Power Exports
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of news on Nvidia that came during the podcast’s vacation, including reports the company was summoned to meeting with the Cyberspace Administration of China, sources saying the same regulators have warned PRC companies against purchasing the H-20 chips, and news that the US is now granting licenses to sell H-20 chips to PRC companies in exchange fo
(Preview) July Politburo Meeting Takeaways and Trump’s Evolving Approach to China
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with July’s Politburo Meeting, including a date for the Fourth Plenum, more condemnations of “disorderly competition,” and signals that party leadership remains confident despite the tumultuous year. From there: The U.S.-China meetings in Stockholm, the latest moves from Trump to moderate on chips and possibly Taiwan, and debating a spate of reports suggesting
(Preview) Xi on Development and Three-Patting Cadres; PRC Venture Investing; Exit Ban Controversies; H20s and a New Trump Narrative; The Big Tariff
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with comments from Xi Jinping and renewed emphasis on building more rational marketplaces across key sectors in tech and beyond. Topics include: The implication that not every province has to participate in new growth areas, cadres parsing conflicting guidance from Beijing, and efforts to stimulate a healthy investment ecosystem for startups as U.S. venture in
(Preview) Nvidia Can Sell H20 Chips to China Again; Trump Softening on China?; A Flurry of Xi Activity; Yang Hansen at NBA Summer League
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reports that Nvidia will soon be allowed to again sell its H20 chips in China. Topics include: A win-win deal for Nvidia and the PRC, whether this is the beginning of more rollbacks of existing chip controls as the PRC exerts leverage with rare earth export controls, and Jensen Huang emerging as a bridge between US and PRC leaders. From there: Reports tha
Wang Yi’s Message on Ukraine; Continued EU Tensions; Deflation and ‘Disorderly’ Competition; Extended Thoughts on Two Months of Xi Rumors
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a look at tensions between the PRC and the EU ahead of the EU-China summit later this month. Topics include: Reports concerning Wang Yi's comments to EU counterparts conveying Beijing's perspective on the Ukraine war, the PRC Foreign Ministry implores the EU to "rebalance its mindset" rather than rebalancing trade, and the rare earths leverage that looms
(Preview) The PRC and the Past Two Weeks in Iran; Ten Speeches in Taiwan; London Framework Faltering?; All Eyes on the EU
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with PRC perspectives on the past two weeks of attacks on Iran. Topics include: Dispelling notions that U.S. involvement was welcomed by the PRC, why regional stability in the Middle East is stressed in every PRC statement, and how Iran and other PRC partners may view China's inaction over the last few weeks. From there: President William Lai delivers the firs
(Preview) A US-China Trade Framework and Continuing Rare Earth Fun; The PRC and the War in Iran; Challenges in China's Car Industry?
On today’s show Andrew and Bill take stock of the US-China trade framework in the wake of last week’s negotiations in London. Topics include: US escalations that brought the PRC side back to the table, PRC rare earth leverage that forced a compromise but no additional export control concessions, and variables to watch as trade tensions continue. From there: A survey of the various implications for
(Preview) US-China Meetings and De-Escalation; Chokepoint Clarity; Embassies in London and Spies in Russia; Xi's Latest Curbs on Party Boozing
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a call between President Trump and Xi, two days of meetings between the U.S. and China in London, and an apparent effort from both sides to de-escalate. Topics include: Retracing steps of the past few weeks, clarity for the U.S. and others on the PRC’s leverage over rare earths, the possibility of the U.S. easing tech export controls, and the lack of trus
The Trade War Becomes a Supply Chain War; A Global Rare Earth Emergency; Xu Qiliang and the Xi Rumor Mill
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a series of escalatory policies from the U.S. and talk of a call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump later this week. Topics include: The rare earth frustration on the American side, the PRC’s use of leverage, the potential downsides for the PRC as the rest of the world grapples with shortages, and the maddening failures of the West to prepare for exactly
(Preview) Made in China 2025 and What Comes Next; EV Price Wars; The EU and Its China Dilemmas; Xi and His Rivals
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reports that next year's five-year plan will double down on the Made in China 2025 strategy. Topics include: The legacy and successes of Made in China 2025, ferocious domestic competition in industries like electric vehicles, and an aspect of self-reliance that continues to elude modern leadership. From there: A report that the EU is ready to work with th
(Preview) Chips and the Geneva Consensus; US Policy and the Chinese Century; Controversy Over Solar Power Inverters
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the Commerce Department's guidance on Ascend Chips, caustic responses to that policy on the PRC side, citations to the "Geneva Consensus," and the news the U.S. will be partnering with Saudi Arabia and the UAE on AI investments in a move that may limit PRC influence in the region. From there: Reactions to a New York Times op-ed about divergent policy traj
(Preview) A 90-Day Pause, Big Tariff Reductions and What De-Escalation Might Mean for the U.S. and China
On today's show Andrew and Bill gather on short notice with reactions to Monday's news of a deal between the U.S. and China to significantly reduce tariffs for ninety days, while establishing a formal dialogue mechanism to discuss trade and economic issues. Topics include: Why a pause made sense for both sides, Trump's reference to the PRC and its "non-monetary barriers," the wins and opportunitie
Trade Talks in Switzerland; Continuing Data Opacity Concerns; Xi Heads to Moscow; The CIA Takes to YouTube
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the US and PRC are sending representatives to Switzerland to discuss trade talks this weekend. Topics include: Why expectations should be set low, the week of signs that the PRC was willing to engage, questions about cooperating on fentanyl, and the latest measures to loosen monetary policy in Beijing. From there: An email about Chinese data
(Preview) ‘Protracted War’ and ‘Struggle’; The Looming Risks for the PRC; A Politburo Study Session on AI; Apple’s Attempt to Pivot
On today’s show Andrew and Bill take stock of the trade war one month after “Liberation Day.” Topics include: Domestic messaging on “struggle” and external promises to never kneel down, the risks facing the PRC as US tariffs threaten to compound overcapacity controversies and invite heightened scrutiny around the world, Week 3 of speculation on whether the US and China are negotiating on trade, an
(Preview) Bessent and an ‘Unsustainable’ Path; Making Sense of Hourly Madness; The PRC’s Message to the World; A Note on Canada
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Tuesday’s signals that the Trump administration may seek to deescalate its trade war, why Beijing may see it as confirmation that their patient approach is working, and questions about what’s next as the Trump messaging on trade changes by the day. From there: The PRC warns countries about cooperating with the US, and why the apparent US flip-flopping lik
(Preview) The Fog of the Trade War Continues; US Restricts Nvidia Sales to the PRC; Jensen Huang Heads to Beijing; Rare Earths and Supply Chain Anxieties
On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the state of the trade war two weeks after “Liberation Day” and the imposition of a 145% tariff rate on PRC goods. Topics include: Reports of a Trump Admin strategy to isolate the PRC, daily talk of a deal with China from President Trump, himself, signals from the PRC side that they may be willing to negotiate, and the PRC cancels orders of Boeing
The Unraveling is Accelerating; Post-Escalation Options for the PRC; Trump Goals and EU Possibilities; Another Maddening TikTok Development
On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the intensification of the US-China trade war, including tariffs of 104% beginning on Wednesday, the PRC's options to respond, how companies like Apple could be squeezed, and why this represents the lowest point for US-China relations in a very long time. Then: Exploring EU opportunities and challenges after Premier Li Qiang's call with EU Presiden
(Preview) Welcoming Foreign Enterprises; Ships are the New Chips; He Weidong and More PLA Rumors; Deep-Sea Cable Cutter
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the China Development Forum, including China's messaging to foreign investors, revisiting the Mintz raids as five detained employees are finally released, no updates on a Xi-Trump meeting, and news in the EV space. From there: The US plans to revive shipbuilding capacity, the likely disruption if the US adopts the USTR recommendations to counter Chinese d
(Preview) Renewed Tensions on Taiwan; Xi 'Angered' by the Panama Canal Deal; TikTok Talks Heating Up; Multidimensional Trump Implications
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te designating the PRC a "foreign hostile force," the initial response from the PRC and potential responses to come, rumors surrounding CMC vice chairman He Weidong, and an email wondering about the defense of Taiwan as a core American interest. From there: Sources say Xi Jinping is "angered" by CK Hutchison's deal to sell it
(Preview) New Year, Same Plans for the Economy; PRC Tariffs on Canadian Exports; A Trump-Xi Birthday Summit?; When Facebook Tried to Enter China
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Two Sessions, including good news for tech companies as the push for new quality productive forces continues, the rhetoric surrounding domestic consumption alongside modest stimulus measures so far, the NDRC's plan to mobilize 1 billion yuan to support the startup ecosystem, and more. From there: The PRC announces new tariffs on Canadia
Tariffs and the Escalatory Cycle; China and the Fentanyl Crisis; TSMC Plans and Nvidia Scrutiny; Hard Times for Moutai
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Trump raising tariffs on the PRC by 10%, the PRC's response, and the phone call Xi-Trump phone call that was rumored a month ago but still hasn't happened. Then: What to watch for during Two Sessions week, Xi has always supported private enterprises, a response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on fentanyl, and why the U.S. focusing on domestic enforce
(Preview) Trump's Memorandum on Foreign Investment; 'Reverse Nixon' Realities; Document #1; PLA Drills in the Tasman Sea
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the White House's memorandum on an America First Investment Policy, President Trump's recent appointees, the latest news from the Commerce Department and BIS, and a proposal for lifting controls on chips and tightening controls on chipmaking equipment. From there: "Reverse Nixon" possibilities and structural realities that make it unlikely, document
(Preview) Xi Jinping and China's Tech Companies, The Long-Run Implications of the Chip Ban, and a Pessimistic Outlook for Taiwan
On today’s special crossover Sharp Tech/Sharp China episode, Ben Thompson and Bill Bishop discuss the private enterprise symposium and Xi Jinping's rapprochement with China's tech companies, and the connection between xAI and DeepSeek. Then, an extended debate on the chip ban, including its potential long-term consequences, and whether or not a course correction is possible. Finally, why the situa
The Tariff Tit-for-Tat Begins; The PRC and the Panama Canal; Apple and Google in China; DeepSeek One Week Later
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by talking through a first round of US tariffs on PRC goods and responses from the PRC earlier this week. Topics include: The fentanyl allegations that served as the predicate for these tariffs, Chinese responses that highlight points of leverage should trade tensions escalate, next steps in negotiations, and the end of the de minimis loophole. From there: Sec
(Preview) Happy Lunar New Year and A Few Thoughts on DeepSeek
On today’s show Andrew and Bill wish a Happy Lunar New Year to the audience and interrupt the holiday week in the PRC to share various reactions to a week of DeepSeek discussion in the U.S. Topics include: The DeepSeek origin story, OpenAI and distillation questions, DeepSeek’s future in China after Liang Wenfeng’s meeting with Li Qiang, how the U.S. government might process these developments, an
(Preview) The TikTok Fiasco Continues; Breathing Room on Tariffs; The RMB Calculus; Notes on Taiwan and Hollywood
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the fate of TikTok after a wild week of updates. Topics include: A ByteDance investor who says that TikTok may continue in the U.S. without a full divestiture, lessons for Beijing and Americans from the past few weeks, and why potential TikTok buyers might be wary of any deal structure that doesn't comply with the letter of federal law. Then: Week 1 of th
Bonus Episode: A TikTok Verdict and Lots of Questions on Substack Live
Andrew and Bill take to Substack Live on Sinocism to discuss the SCOTUS decision about TikTok and what may be next for the app in the US.
TikTok and Musk and Xiaohongshu; Xi’s Speech To Top Leaders; New PLA Capabilities for Taiwan; Proposed AI Controls and Continued Hacking Concerns
On today’s show Bill and Andrew begin with multiple reports that Chinese officials have considered working with Elon Musk to find a resolution for TikTok in the U.S., while TikTok‘s users have flocked to Xiaohongshu and inspired a few more questions for the future. Then: Parsing Xi Jinping’s speech in the first 2025 issue of Qiushi, why both the substance of his message and his audience heighten c
Bonus Episode: TikTok Gets a Hearing at the Supreme Court
On a bonus episode following up on Wednesday morning's show, Andrew and Bill react to the news—which broke later Wednesday morning—that the Supreme Court has granted cert to TikTok in its appeal of the D.C. Circuit's decision earlier this month upholding the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. Topics include: A bit more hope for TikTok, revisiting the D.C. Circuit’s answer to the First
(Preview) CEWC and Bleak Economic Data; Naval Exercises Around Taiwan; New Reporting on Chip Controls; Trump’s Standing Invitation to Xi
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a few updates on the Central Economic Work Conference, economic headwinds facing the PRC economy, including weaker-than-expected retail data, mixed data from the real estate market, and concerns from an economist assessing the conditions on the ground. From there: Reactions to last week's PLA exercises around Taiwan, divergent reactions from policymakers
(Preview) ‘Moderately Loose’ and Cautiously Stimulating; Nvidia Under Investigation; Broadening Export Bans; A TikTok Verdict and a Trump Prayer
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest messaging from Beijing on efforts to stimulate the economy in 2025 and beyond. Topics include: Politburo language that echoes 2008, muted reactions from the mainland markets, why the ultimate policy decisions may not be made until the PRC has more clarity on Trump's intentions, and more. From there: Nvidia finds itself at the center of an antit
Final Updates to the Biden Chip Controls; Peak Tough on China?; PLA and CEWC Speculation; More Trump Questions than Answers in Beijing
On today’s show Andrew and Bill return from the holiday break with reactions to the latest round updates to the US export controls on semiconductors. Topics include: Why some think the updates are weaker than they should’ve been, takeaways from the past two years of chip controls, TikTok’s new hopes, and whether the U.S. has now passed the peak of tough-on-China policies. From there: The suspensio
(Preview) The Final Biden-Xi Meeting; PRC Messaging to the World; Mass Attacks and the Party Response; Trump Transition Updates
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the PRC readout from this weekend's meeting between XI Jinping and President Joe Biden, including the four red lines communicated by the PRC to the US, PRC language surrounding enhanced security ties between the US and pacific allies, and a farewell to the San Francisco vision. From there: Xi Jinping's message to APEC and the charm offensive planned
(Preview) Stabilization Measures and Export Questions; Taiwan Considers US Arms Purchase; TSMC Halts Advanced Chip Sales to China; Trump Tea Leaves and Cabinet Picks
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Friday's announcement from the NPC standing committee and more incremental stabilization measures from PRC leadership. Topics include: Foreign investors (again) hoping for more, "deepening reforms" and domestic consumption, the trade surplus with the US exceeds the trillion dollar threshold, and why attempts to build an alliance with the EU are unlikely t
Questions and Expectations for Trump 2.0; Looming Trade Tensions and PRC Responses; Volatility and Intermediaries; TikTok’s Last Hope?
On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through a second Donald Trump presidency and what it might mean for US-China relations. Topics include: a note of congratulations from Xi Jinping Thursday morning, memories of the first Trump presidency, the calculus from both sides as tariffs loom, a larger toolkit of responses to trade policy for the PRC, potential intermediaries between Trump's administratio
(Preview) Myriad Holes in US Chip Controls; New Reports on TSMC and Huawei; The Latest "Stimulus" News; Mixed Signals on Private Tutoring
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an excellent report from Semi Analysis, and the state of the U.S. export controls on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Topics include: New reports of TSMC sales to Huawei-linked firms, the Commerce Department's oversight of chip controls, the various loopholes being routinely exploited by SMIC, Huawei and related entities, and enforcement questions
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