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Cheap Talk

Cheap Talk

Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes 130 Episodes Oct 3, 2026

Cheap Talk is an international relations podcast hosted by Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes, professors of government at William & Mary. Released roughly every week or so, it explores topics in world politics and international relations. The show features discussion and analysis from an academic perspective.

Episodes

Envoys of Friendship
Envoys of Friendship Oct 3, 2026 00:52:03 AI agents are like middle schoolers; assessing progress from the Trump/Xi summit; combatting the security dilemma with summitry; creating new communication channels for AI incidents; panda diplomacy and overplaying one’s panda hand; some small movements toward AI governance; why AI resorts to deception; and Marcus is a summit optimistThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do
Humans Make Mistakes Too
Humans Make Mistakes Too Sep 26, 2026 01:04:25 A big week for face-to-face diplomacy; the UN as a safe forum for high-level visits; the importance of side-meetings outside the General Assembly Hall; another Trump-Zelensky meeting; the logic of a post-election deal with Iran; China’s summit strategy; resolving the Greenland Crisis of 2025-2026; whether AI really almost caused a war with China; and Marcus supports hotline proliferationThe opinio
The Lingo of Our AI Tech Overlords
The Lingo of Our AI Tech Overlords Sep 18, 2026 01:00:09 The public debate over AI and the end of humanity; proposals to slow down AI development and improve safety; the challenges of coordinating domestically and internationally; normal accident theory and the nuclear safety analogy to AI; positive and negative controls and the always/never dilemma; predictions for the end of humanity; and Marcus wonders whether aliens have AI and how that went for the
Not Routine at All
Not Routine at All Sep 14, 2026 00:51:28 The international security implications of the Hugging Face hack; rogue AI agents and cyberattack attribution; competing explanations for the CIA Director’s recent visit to Moscow; signaling to various audiences; worries about Russia expanding the Ukraine conflict into NATO; US domestic politics and the state of the Iran war; and Marcus has really enjoyed the US OpenThe opinions expressed on this
This Could Result in an International Incident
This Could Result in an International Incident Sep 5, 2026 00:48:00 The fascinating story of OpenAI’s rogue models and the HuggingFace hacking incident; turning a mirror on our humanity; the natural inclination to cooperate and communicate; models sacrificing themselves for the greater good; models cheating on their benchmarks and the temptation to cover their tracks; conspiracy theories and misinformation in the world of AI models; and Marcus is tempted to go int
Twice as Popular as Taylor Swift
Twice as Popular as Taylor Swift Aug 30, 2026 00:47:46 Remembering Dolly Parton, global icon; US military capacity and the readiness costs of extended deployments in the Iran conflict; the US-Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement is submitted to Congress; developments in the trade war with Canada; spillover between economic statecraft and security policy; and Marcus thinks Jolene is a good tuneThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our
All of This Has Been Done
All of This Has Been Done Aug 23, 2026 01:01:22 Cheap Talk’s triumphant return for season 7: Our favorite international news stories of the summer; cutting short military exercises with South Korea; AI models hacking their way out of sandboxes; a new military alliance in the Gulf; the US/Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement; President Trump’s escape from Turkey in a catering truck; studying IR in turbulent times; and Marcus reminisces abo
Other Forms of Dust
Other Forms of Dust May 8, 2026 01:02:04 Cheap Talk ends season 6 with listener questions: Control of the Strait of Hormuz; an arrest for trading on classified information on Polymarket; Thucydides and parallels to current US foreign policy; does face-to-face diplomacy build trust or generate more information; teaching tomorrow’s foreign policy leaders in the age of AI; did Hans Neimann cheat; dust as a metaphor in IR; and Marcus doesn’t
Waiting at the Airport
Waiting at the Airport Apr 24, 2026 01:02:20 The current state of US-Iran negotiations (or lack thereof); escalation and mixed signal-sending in the Strait of Hormuz; multiple veto players on each side; Pakistan’s interesting role; the shadow of President Obama and the 2015 Iran Deal; and Marcus has never flown Spirit but has seen the Youtube videosThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or p
It's Real and It's Dangerous
It's Real and It's Dangerous Apr 18, 2026 01:03:38 Excitement in the world of digital diplomacy; face-to-face diplomacy to end the Iran war; blockading Iran as a plan B and its prospects for success; Anthropic’s Mythos and AI that is too dangerous to release; the offense-defense balance in cyberspace; building AI for the public good; more capable models are more dangerous, even if they are well aligned; and Marcus can’t be botheredThe opinions exp
Something Revolutionarily Wonderful
Something Revolutionarily Wonderful Apr 9, 2026 00:51:33 Trump’s threats against Iranian civilization; nuclear threats and the risk of nuclear use in Iran; threatening war crimes is both bad and bad policy; the prospects for the ceasefire and remaining challenges to overcome; the diplomatic role of China and Pakistan; and Marcus feels like he’s in multiple worldsThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or
Seems Like a Bad Idea
Seems Like a Bad Idea Apr 2, 2026 00:55:55 How Russia benefits from the Iran war; President Trump’s recent statements about how the war is going; China is both helped by and hurt by the Iran war; prediction markets as an aggregation mechanism for the wisdom of crowds; insider trading and insider influence; the characteristics of wise crowds; and Marcus will never make that mistake againThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our

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