The Trivium China Podcast
Trivium China is an analysis firm that monitors Chinese government policy. In this podcast, its analysts break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture. Each episode provides expert context on how China's policy direction affects markets, industries, and global affairs. The show is produced from the firm's offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Washington, DC. It is aimed at listeners who want clear, informed analysis of China's political and economic trajectory.
Episodes
Ep 92 - Beijing pivots toward more economic support
Back in July, when the Politburo met to discuss economic policy, officials signaled little more than incremental policy tweaks were on the horizon.But fast forward to early October, and Beijing has rolled out a slate of support measures, including a fresh debt quota for local governments, more policy bank lending, and new interest subsidies for mortgages.Dinny McMahon calls it a clear pivot – Beij
Ep 91 - Beijing’s quiet deleveraging push
For the first time in recent memory, a senior Chinese economic official is really pushing the idea that China needs to control its debt-to-GDP ratio.In a recent Qiushi essay, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng laid out why credit growth has to slow.Trivium made this call back in July, when deleveraging sounded like a wild idea given how weak the economy is.Dinny McMahon’s take: “We feel qu
Ep 90 - China isn’t ignoring AI risk, it’s rejecting America’s version of it
When Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called on US labs to pace the AI frontier, Washington said no – and so did Beijing.In fact, Chinese state media outlet China Daily went further, calling Amodei’s suggestion a “self-serving bid for profit.”The back-and-forth has led to an ongoing debate around whether China takes AI safety seriously.Kendra Schaefer’s take: China does take AI risk seriously – but what
Ep 89 - Inside China's two-decade campaign to win over Latin America
From ports to lithium mines to diplomatic battles over Taiwan, China has spent two decades persistently building influence across Latin America and the Caribbean – one contract, one relationship, one chamber of commerce at a time.Leland Lazarus’s new book – Dragon in the Americas: China’s Power, Presence, and Regional Influence – argues this isn’t simply a trade story.It’s a long game, and China i
Ep 88 - The Xi-Trump risk nobody's pricing in
US President Donald Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday – a rare honor last extended to the Pope by Barack Obama.The atmospherics of the greeting and the rest of Xi’s Washington trip were great. The actual deliverables of the visit were more muted.The one concrete outcome from Xi’s Washington visit was a two-month extension of the Busan trade truce, far short of t
Ep 87 - Joerg Wuttke: China told Europe exactly how it would beat us. We didn't listen.
Back in 2017, China’s former SASAC chairman told Joerg Wuttke, then president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, precisely which industries China’s overcapacity machine would roll through next: EVs, batteries, solar, wind, basic chemicals.Fast forward a decade, and it happened exactly as he predicted.Joerg’s very blunt take: “China, in essence, is kind enough to tell us when and how they’re g
Ep 86 - The weaknesses behind China's booming exports
China’s manufacturing output just grew at the fastest pace in six months, but retail sales barely moved last month – and the gap between the two growth rates just hit its widest point in over three years.The upshot: Exports are still picking up the slack.But an increasing chunk of China’s export growth is simply down to price increases, not rising volumes.So even that stalwart economic prop is sta
Ep 85 - China’s approach to AI in the Global South: selling the razor blades, not the razor
Everyone keeps calling the US-China AI competition a race.But Eric Olander, co-founder of the China Global South Project, says that framing is wrong – because a race implies a finish line, and this competition doesn't have one.Eric’s view is that Chinese AI companies aren't necessarily looking to out innovate US closed-weight models.Instead, the goal for China is to become Android to Ame
Ep 84 - Nobody knows where the line is, and that’s the problem
The US and China have been quietly testing each other’s limits all summer – and neither side actually knows where the breaking point is.To discuss the nature – and limits – of the fragile US-China economic détente, we are joined this week by Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair and Director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.Evan’s read: The US-China relationsh
Ep 83 - Beijing's new directive to its tech firms: behave abroad
Chinese tech companies keep getting fined and blocked overseas – sometimes unfairly, and sometimes because they’re behaving exactly like they do at home.Beijing just released a plan to fix both problems at once.Our take: “China’s nefarious plan to get its companies to obey overseas laws” is a Foreign Affairs headline just waiting to be written.On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Pol
Ep 82 - Another grim month for the Chinese economy
China’s July macro data just landed, and the title of our monthly macro note says it all: “A Grim Picture.”Consumption, investment, and property all deteriorated further last month – and the two props that supported the economy in the first half of the year are now fading fast.On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack:How July
Ep 81 - The AI loophole Washington can’t afford to close
Chinese companies can’t legally buy the most advanced US-made AI chips, so they’re renting them instead – from data centers in Thailand, Malaysia, and beyond – completely legally.US policymakers know about the issue – but several years into the implementation of export controls on advanced chips, they still haven’t closed it.And there’s a reason for that.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcas
Ep 80 - The China chokepoints nobody's watching
When it comes to China’s key nodes of economic leverage, rare earths get all the attention – because they’re the cheapest, easiest lever China has to pull.But the more durable – and future – points of leverage are already hiding in plain sight, in hundreds of intermediate goods most people never think about.Gerard DiPippo, Director of Global Macro at Eurasia Group, returns to the pod as our first
Ep 79 - Beijing stops playing coy
On August 5th, China dropped a new batch of retaliatory economic measures against various US entities.And this time, officials did something they rarely do – naming exactly which US actions they were responding to and why.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack:What exactly landed in MofCom’
Ep 78 - China's secret weapon isn't subsidies, it's pain tolerance
US policymakers are constantly discussing whether America can leapfrog China in key technologies.Our answer: probably not, and batteries prove it.In fact, the real question isn't whether the US can – or even should – try to outpace China in at least some advanced tech; it's whether the West can afford not to learn from China.On this podcast episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs
Ep 77 - There’s no such thing as overcapacity, China says
Beijing just released its most detailed rebuttal yet to accusations from the West around industrial overcapacity – and it pointedly avoided using the very word that started the fight in the first place.There’s a reason for that, and we break it all down in today’s podcast.On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) to unpack:The five core arguments in MOFCO
Ep 76 - China's economy is hurting, Beijing's answer is patience
China's July Politburo meeting is always a big one, as the leadership takes stock of the economy and signals policy adjustments for the second half of the year.In this year’s July meeting, officials clearly signaled that more fiscal support is on the way, but only in modest amounts.Note: This is our second short format episode – tighter, quick-turnaround reactions to the news as it breaks, al
Ep 75 - DeepSeek Founder Goes Off Script in Leaked Investor Call
A leaked, four-hour investor call with DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng has been spreading like wildfire on the Chinese internet over the past few days – before links to it started disappearing – and Trivium's Bao Linghao joined the pod to give it a Friday-morning stress test.His verdict: The transcript seems legit, and it tracks with everything else we know about how the lab operates.Quick not
Ep 74 - Kimi K3 Was So Good It Freaked Out Two Governments
Beijing is moving to restrict how far its own open-source AI models can travel abroad, just as Washington moves to restrict how far they can travel in.Same standoff, squeezing from opposite ends of the pipeline.Quick note: This episode is the first of a new, more frequent style of podcast we're rolling out – shorter, faster-turnaround conversations to react to the news as it breaks, alongside
Ep 73 - China's Stock Market Rescue: How Big Is Beijing's Bet?
China is stepping in to prop up its stock market, quietly opening the door to more outbound investment, and easing off the credit gas – all at once.Coincidence? We don't think so.On this week's Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack:Why the "national team" bought A-shares after la
Ep 72 - China is building a market for data. Why isn’t America?
Data has become one of the most important inputs in the modern economy, especially as access to high-quality information increasingly shapes the global race to develop artificial intelligence.But while US policymakers tend to view data primarily through a national security lens, Beijing is pursuing a much broader strategy aimed at unlocking data’s economic value.On this week’s Trivium China Podcas
Ep 71 - Is China quietly beginning to deleverage?
China’s economy has lost momentum after a surprisingly strong start to the year.But while many analysts are asking why Beijing isn’t doing more to stimulate growth, this week’s Trivium China Podcast explores a different question: why are policymakers deliberately choosing not to?Pod host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to examine why Beijing may be quietly
Ep 70 - China’s growth model hits another reality check
China’s economy started 2026 with surprising momentum – but the latest monthly macro data underscores that many of the country’s underlying challenges remain firmly in place.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to unpack the latest economic data and what it reveals about the increasingly uneven nature of China’s growth story.T
Ep 69 - Podcast | The “China Shock 2.0” fallacy
It’s been a busy few weeks for Chinese diplomacy, with Xi Jinping making a rare trip to North Korea while tensions between Beijing and Brussels continue to climb over trade, industrial policy, and the future of Europe’s manufacturing base.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur and Head of Clean Energy and EV Research Co
Ep 68 - Can asset revitalization save local government finances?
China’s local governments have spent the past four years grappling with the fallout from the property market collapse. Land sales have dried up, fiscal pressures remain intense, and officials across the country are still searching for sustainable new sources of revenue.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to discuss on
Ep 67 - What exactly is US policy toward Taiwan?
This week on the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis Joe Mazur to unpack one of the most consequential – and potentially misunderstood – issues emerging from the recent Xi-Trump summit: Taiwan.While both Washington and Beijing have publicly insisted that little changed during the meeting, Joe argues that several comments from President Trump
Ep 66 - Jon Czin on Xi, Trump, and the US-China stalemate
It’s been a consequential week for US-China relations, as Xi Jinping and Donald Trump finally held their long-awaited summit in Beijing amid ongoing trade tensions, export control battles, and the fallout from the Iran war.On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by special guest Jon Czin – the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and a fell
Ep 65 - Xi-Trump vibes, meetings about meetings, and the PBoC’s next moves
The long-awaited Xi Jinping–Donald Trump meeting has finally happened – but what, exactly, came out of it?On the first part of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack the immediate takeaways from the leaders’ summit in Beijing.The two discuss:Why the meeting was heavy on symbolism but light
Ep 64 - China sanctions pushback, macro resilience, and more Iran war fallout
It’s been another consequential week for China’s economy and foreign policy – with Beijing deploying its blocking rules for the first time ever in response to new US sanctions tied to Iranian oil purchases.On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack what China’s latest legal
Ep 63 - Beijing unwinds the Meta-Manus deal
What happens when a Chinese AI startup tries to sell itself to a major US tech company, but Beijing decides it doesn’t like the deal?In this week’s episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to unpack the latest in the Meta-Manus acquisition saga and what it reveals about China’s evolving approach to tech regulation and natio
Ep 62 - All the latest on the China supply chain front
With the Xi-Trump meeting looming and the Iran situation changing every hour, how are China and the US trying to secure their respective interests?This week, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk and Head of Supply Chain Research Cory Combs break down key dynamics – from:The evolving impacts of the Iran war and China's responsesChina's latest supply chain and anti-foreign coercion polic
Ep 61 - A stress test at the worst possible moment
China's economy started the year off on the front foot – but fragilities remain just below the surface, and the war in Iran may put that early positive momentum to the test.To discuss the latest dynamics driving the economy, and the potential…erm…hiccups it may face in the coming months, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined this week by two seasoned economists:Beijing-based China
Ep 60 - How China views the Iran situation
There’s only one storyline that matters geopolitically right now, and that’s the ongoing war between the US and Israel and Iran.Now in its third week, the war increasingly looks likely to be a protracted engagement, and as the conflict grinds on, the implications – both political and economic – for the many countries not involved in the fighting will become clearer.China, of course, has a wide-ran
Ep 59 - 15th FYP deep dive: industrial upgrading, solving the compute problem, and investing in people
On this week’s edition of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is back with a gaggle of Trivium analysts to go deep on various aspects of the recently released 15th Five Year Plan (FYP).The group covers a broad range of issues including:Key macroeconomic, development, and economic security goalsThe plan for industrial upgrading – and key priorities in upstream, midstream, and downstream ind
Ep 58 - FYP, GDP, and Ilaria Mazzocco on NEVs
It’s been a big week in China, with the annual government meetings (aka the Two Sessions) kicking off to lay out key policy priorities for the year – and to drop a draft version of the 15th Five Year Plan (FYP).There’s a ton of policy to wade through in both the annual government work reports and the FYP – from macro, to tech, to healthcare, to bio-manufacturing, and more.On this week’s Trivium Ch
Ep 57 - Jude Blanchette on how China views “The Rupture” in global politics
2026 has kicked off with a geopolitical bang – from US intervention in Venezuela to threats against Greenland to potential military action against Iran, not to mention the latest tariff turmoil following last week’s US Supreme Court ruling.All of this volatility – and what it might say about the role the US will play in the world going forward – can lead to some pretty lazy assumptions that China
Ep 56 - Heard on the street, Beijing edition
It's been a while between trips, but last week Trivium's Head of Markets Research, Dinny McMahon, was back in Beijing.In this podcast, he and Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk discuss Dinny's observations and takeaways from the trip.After dissecting the vibe on the street, the gents get into:Where there might be some potential for investment growth this yearWhy the only thing that will
Ep 55 - Can US-China relations remain a calm amidst the geopolitical storm?
US-China bilateral relations have, surprisingly, been an anchor of calm amidst a sea of geopolitical uncertainty in the opening innings of 2026.And increasingly, it looks like the seemingly fragile truce between the two countries will prove more resilient that it initially seemed – back when US President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade war détente in November.To discuss the state of play –
Ep 54 - Can China get investment growth back on track?
On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk speaks with our lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel, to take a quick temperature check of China’s latest macro data.The two discuss:What the full-year 2025 data (released in mid-Jan) tells us about the state of play and the likely economic trajectory for 2026How the constituent parts of the economy – consumption, investment, and exports – are
Ep 53 - Financial regulators start 2026 with a bang + Beijing’s view on the Meta-Manus deal
China’s financial regulators have started 2026 with a flurry of activity.On January 14, the securities regulator raised margin requirements on stock trading in a bid to cool investors’ exuberance.The following day the central bank expanded a bunch of its relending facilities, and cut the interest rate on all of its structural lending tools.Then on January 20, the finance ministry rolled out a bunc
Ep 52 - China's economic slowdown – not as bad as it seems
November economic data was a bit of a letdown, suggesting China’s economy is rapidly losing growth momentum.Fixed asset investment declined by double digitsIndustrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 monthsRetail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three yearsBut things aren’t as bad as they seem.This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Pe
Ep 51 - Reordering global supply chains: licenses, leverage, and our strategic look-ahead
As the new year approaches, governments, corporations, and investors alike are asking: what will critical material supply chains look like in the year to come?In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss where global supply chains and diversification efforts stand today – and how they are likely to shape up in 2026.Star
Ep 50 - Breaking down the Central Economic Work Conference
At the end of each year, China's top economic policymakers get together for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) to discuss their goals for the year ahead.This year's CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins-and-outs of the meeting's official readout.Warning
Ep 49 - I say overcapacity, you say involution, let’s call the whole thing off
In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name…And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications.In this podcast, Triviu
Ep 48 - How Xi Jinping thinks about the rule of law + explaining why capital investment is tanking
On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, your loyal Trivium team digs into China’s key domestic and regional developments from the past few days.First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systemsXi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the variou
Ep 47 - China Shock 2.0: the trade implications of China’s new economic growth model
With the US and China having agreed to a détente over trade, now is a good time to take a step back from the day-to-day back-and-forth of measures and countermeasure, and look at the longer term implications of China’s new economic model for trade.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, kick off by discussing China’s surprisingly bleak October e
Ep 46 - What China really agreed to on rare earths + assessing US capability to end reliance on China
Confusion around what China has officially agreed to in terms of pausing its rare earths, and other critical mineral, export controls persists – even as we are a week out from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s trade agreement in South Korea.Significant discrepancies remain between official statements from the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce on the issue.Meanwhile, officials and commercial
Ep 45 - China’s perspective on the trade ceasefire + 15th Five-Year Plan breakdown
It was another monumental week on the China front.On Tuesday, the Party released its sprawling 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) Proposals – laying out the sheer scale of Xi Jinping’s policy ambitions over the next half-decadeThen on Thursday, Xi and US President Donald Trump got together in South Korea – their first meeting in six years – and agreed to a year-long ceasefire in the trade warIn this week’s
Ep 44 - Xi’s make or break moment + USCBC’s Sean Stein on US-China volatility
Alright folks, this one is a banger.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined first by colleagues Dinny McMahon and Joe Peissel. The three discuss:The most recent China macro dataEconomic headwinds and tailwinds as we move into 2026Their early read of the 4th Plenum – and Xi Jinping’s make or break moment with the upcoming Five-Year PlanAndrew is then joined by a very specia
Ep 43 - Volatility and fragility: US and China seek path back to negotiating table
It’s been a frenetic and exhausting couple of weeks on the US-China front.After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days.At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fragi
Ep 42 - Back on the escalatory spiral
Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the control
Ep 41 - China's economy is strong and weak at the same time
Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you!In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office.Gerard is one of the sharpest
Ep 40 - China's AI+ Initiative – why the AI race is not the Manhattan Project
Chinese policymakers are looking to diffuse AI into key industrial, commercial, and governance fields as deeply and quickly as possible.The overarching framework for their approach is captured in the AI+ plus initiative.Officials published the overarching policy architecture for AI+ in late August.And more granular AI+X plans (e.g. AI+Energy, AI+Transportation) are now starting to roll out.In this
Ep 39 - China's new economic growth model
For decades, China's economy was driven by debt-fueled construction of housing and infrastructure.But once the housing market collapsed in 2021, China needed to find a new growth model.The key parts of that new model are well known: Industrial upgradingAggressive export growthTechnological innovation What's less well understood is how these parts fit together, and how the new model might
Ep 38 - Back in black: Beijing’s efforts to turn around falling tax revenue
China’s GDP growth has been unexpectedly strong this year. But paradoxically, tax revenue has been contracting.That’s not supposed to happen:Tax revenue typically falls during a recession, but not when the economy is expanding by more than 5% annually.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Trivium’s Head of Markets Research, discuss the reasons behind China’s falling ta
Ep 37 - Welcome to the New World Order
Xi Jinping’s growing diplomatic clout was on full display over the past week.Things kicked off in the Chinese port city of Tianjin, where Xi hosted the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.The enduring image from that meeting will be a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, walking hand-in-hand with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – just before the two shared a hearty lau
Ep 36 - China's surging stock market
China's stock markets have been on a tear over the last few months, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index – which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – up 25% since its low point in February.Beijing has wanted the market to rally for quite some time – but this upsurge has come as something of a surprise. China’s economic fundamentals aren’t really conducive to a market rec
Ep 35 - How much dependence on China is too much?
China's export controls on rare earth elements have exposed major US supply chain vulnerabilities. Now the US is scrambling to plug the holes – and China is working to maintain its leverage.The big question is: how far will each side go in these efforts?In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, take stock of China'
Ep 34 - Beijing's curious plan to stimulate services consumption with more investment
The quest to understand Beijing's views on consumer spending continues. The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments.Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – as being an effort to boost consumption.In
Ep 33 - It's turning out to be a good year for China's economy
When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment. Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy. The gents
Ep 32 - Dueling AI development strategies
China and the US are both rapidly refining their approaches to global AI development, through newly released AI actions plans.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss what’s in the latest plans.The two discuss:The Trump administration’s pivot on chip sales to China, and the new guidance on chips laid out i
Ep 31 - The involution will not be televised
Is Beijing finally gearing up to address chronic oversupply – and resulting price wars – in its NEV and other cleantech sectors?Trey McArver joins Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk this week to discuss just that question.Specifically, they examine what may be the early signs of a major policy shift – meant to break through the structural causes that keep industries from consolidating and zomb
Ep 30 - China preps for demise of US dollar dominance
At the Lujiazui Financial forum in June, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech that we believe redefined Beijing's attitude toward RMB internationalization.Since the policy was launched in 2009, RMB internationalization has been a struggle, with Beijing's commitment to maintaining capital controls making it difficult to claw market share from the dollar.But Pan's
Ep 29 - Consumer upswings + geopolitical downswings
In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) and Joe Mazur (Trivium’s head of geopolitical research) – who all got together in Beijing. The three discuss a variety of topics including:China’s improving consumer dataThe current vibes in Beijing, as tourists flock inThe latest on US-China trade talksThe latest on EU-Chin
Ep 28 - Exiting the US-China trade death spiral
In the latest episode of the Trivium China podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss this week’s phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that appears to have gotten trade talks back on track, for now. The two discuss:The developments and misperceptions from both sides that almost derailed the Geneva truce over the past three weeksWhat we know about the Xi-Trump call,
Ep 27 - Weaponizing supply chains + the real-time breakdown of the Geneva détente
On this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleagues Kendra Schaefer (Trivium’s head of tech policy) and Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) to talk through the latest tech controls from the US on China – and China’s likely reaction.The three discuss:The Trump administration’s move to restrict sales of electronic design automation (EDA) software to ChinaThe
Ep 26 - China explores its key points of trade leverage: rare earth export control updates + sanctions threats
In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s head of critical mineral and supply chain research, Cory Combs, to address the mounting confusion over whether and how China will ease off on its rare earth export curbs. The gents discuss:The implications behind China’s recent approval of a handful of rare earth magnet export licensesWhether China would consider removin
Ep 25 - Trivium Markets - Trade war ceasefire + export control latest + courting LATAM
In this week’s pod, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk, Trey McArver, and Ether Yin all sat down together in DC to discuss the recent de-escalation in the US-China trade war.They guys also drilled down on China’s move to grant licenses for critical mineral exports to the US, as part of the temporary trade reprieve.And finally, the gents discussed where Beijing was really focused this week – deepening
Ep 24 - Trivium Markets - China ramps up economic support + doubling down on exports
It’s been a long time coming, but Beijing is finally ramping up economic support to counter the fallout from tariffs.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the wave of monetary policy measures rolled out by financial regulators on Wednesday.The gents get into the nitty gritty of China’s financial system – with forays into PBoC re
Ep 23 - Trivium Markets and Politics - On Protracted (Trade) War
In this week’s podcast, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver examine Beijing’s latest thinking on trade tensions with the US – as both sides settle in for a sustained confrontation. The two discuss:Whether Beijing has Trump’s numberThe shifting narrative on China’s ability to sustain hostilitiesConflicting reports as to whether China and the US are actively negotiatingChina’s patient a
Ep 22 - The tariffs “have become a joke” + rare earth controls
In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined again by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to unpack the latest US-China trade war twists. The two discuss:Friday’s pause in the tariff escalationChina’s pointed efforts to signal it won’t escalate furtherWhether the pause has staying powerWhy a painful stalemate is still far better than some of the alternativesThe
Ep 21 - Trivium Markets and Politics - US-China tariff dumpster fire
In this week’s Trivium China podcast, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver unpack the whirlwind tariff tit-for-tat between the US and China over the past week.The two discuss:Whether we are now locked in an unstoppable escalatory spiralPossible off-ramps for de-escalationHow each side is misreading the otherThe best- and worst-case scenarios from hereChina’s likely policy support for t
Ep 20 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Xi meets foreign execs, China’s Liberation Day reaction, and Beijing’s latest efforts to develop flying cars
In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk links up with Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver. The two:Pick up on last week’s conversation about foreign businesses in China, walking through Xi Jinping’s big meeting with foreign CEOs on FridayDiscuss China’s intervention in the Panama port deal between BlackRock and CK HutchisonPreview China’s likely response to Trump’s Liberation Day
Ep 19 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Beijing courts global CEOs + sharpens economic coercion tools
This week, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk sat down in Shanghai with fellow Co-founder Ether Yin and Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur to discuss:Global businesses in Beijing for the China Development ForumThe messages Chinese leaders are sending to the business communityThe stark contrast in mood between domestic and foreign businesses in ChinaWhether consumer sentiment is fi
Ep 18 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Action plan on consumption + trade war impacts on agriculture
In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Director of China Ag Research Even Pay. The two first discuss the biggest policy move out of China over the last week:· Beijing’s big new plan to boost consumption this yearSpoiler alert: There’s a lot in the plan, but we’re still skeptical it will be enough to get consumers to pull out their wallets any time
Ep 17 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Xi Jinping's innovation obsession + the critical minerals race
That’s a wrap, folks! The Two Sessions officially concluded in Beijing on Tuesday – just in time for this week’s podcast.To begin the pod, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Co-founder Trey McArver to break down the key policy themes from the meetings – through the lens of Xi Jinping’s itinerary.Spoiler alert: It’s pretty much all about innovation.But wait, there’s more! We r
Ep 16 - Trivium Markets - Decoding China’s 2025 economic playbook + Joining the Sinica Podcast Network
The wait is over: China’s annual policy extravaganza, the Two Sessions, kicked off in Beijing on March 4.In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, head of markets research, unpack the key economic targets in Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report.Given the economic headwinds – sluggish consumer demand, deflationary pressures, ongoing property sector woes, and an e
Ep 15 - Trivium Tech - AI fever and the future of China’s private sector
The firehose of tech-related China policy developments has been at full blast over the past few weeks.And as always, Trivium is here to break down all the latest.In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium Partner and Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss:Xi Jinping’s recent confab with private-sector tech executivesWhat the meeting portends
Ep 14 - Trivium Markets - China’s best industrial policy is climate policy
To thrive in the long term, China needs to undergo near-total industrial restructuring.So how’s that going?In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss the key dynamics driving China’s policy-driven industrial transition, including:How Beijing has been using calls for climate action to drive industrial production
Ep 13 - Trivium Markets - China’s Q4 growth miracle, and future prospects for its export machine
While there was never any doubt that China would hit its 2024 GDP growth target of “around 5%,” the general consensus was that full-year growth would come in somewhere near the bottom end of what might acceptably be considered “around.”Needless to say, it was quite a surprise when the stats bureau announced the economy had expanded by a full 5% in 2024.Even more surprising was that the economy had
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