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The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy
Lucas and Luna analyze the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, from FOMC rate moves and dot-plot projections to open market operations and quantitative tightening. Each episode begins with a data snapshot covering the fed funds rate, the Treasury yield curve, and the latest PCE inflation reading. The hosts then debate what the data means for rate cuts, balance sheet policy, and dissenting views within the Fed. Aimed at listeners familiar with monetary policy mechanics, the show combines a journalist’s perspective on Main Street with a macro quant’s focus on regime odds. It offers a numbers-driven framework for portfolio managers, corporate treasurers, and independent investors interpreting the central bank’s next moves.
Episodes
The Fed's Silent Squeeze On Corporate Cash
With the federal funds rate holding near 3.75 percent and the ten-year Treasury yield hovering around 5.24 percent, corporate treasurers are facing a maturity wall that monetary policy alone cannot fix. This episode examines how the combination of high borrowing costs and maturing debt is reshaping corporate balance sheets, forcing companies to choose between raising capital at steep discounts or
How Tariffs Are Rewiring Inflation Expectations
Inflation data from August shows core prices holding steady, yet consumer sentiment is shifting rapidly. This episode examines the New York Fed’s finding that recent price spikes were driven largely by tariffs rather than organic demand. Lucas and Luna explore how this structural shift changes the Federal Reserve’s calculus as they navigate between cooling labor metrics and rising import costs. Wi
The Fed's Silent Wage Squeeze
With the Fed Funds rate holding at three point seven five percent and core PCE stubbornly above two percent, the Federal Reserve faces a new dilemma. Inflation isn't just about goods anymore; it is embedded in services and wages. Lucas and Luna explore how the labor market's hidden tightness is forcing the central bank to wait for data that may never come. They examine why the ten-year Treasury yi
The Fed's Hidden Inflation Trap
With the Federal Reserve Funds rate holding at 3.75 percent and core CPI ticking up to 337.8 in August, inflation is refusing to die quietly. Lucas and Luna break down why headline numbers are misleading right now. They examine how tariffs are artificially inflating prices on everyday goods while wage growth remains sticky. The conversation explores whether the central bank can ignore these struct
Tariffs And The Inflation Trap
The New York Fed recently attributed rising prices on everyday goods directly to tariffs, not supply chains. With core PCE holding at 130.5 and the ten-year yield sitting near 5.23 percent, we explore how import taxes create a structural inflation ceiling that monetary policy struggles to fix. Lucas and Luna break down why this changes the Fed’s calculus for October.
#FexingoBusiness #BusinessPod
The Fed's Inflation Blind Spot
Lucas and Luna examine why the Federal Reserve’s latest policy stance may be missing a critical signal: sticky services inflation driven by AI-driven productivity shifts and wage rigidity. With the core PCE price index holding at 130.5 in August and one-year inflation expectations rising to their highest level since May 2023, the conversation drills into how structural labor market tightness is ke
The Fed's Silent Balance Sheet Squeeze
With the FOMC meeting approaching on October 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve faces a unique dilemma: inflation is sticky at 3.5 percent while labor data shows sudden weakness. Lucas and Luna examine how the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike and widening US trade deficits are forcing central banks to decouple their strategies. They explore why the yield curve remains inverted despite rising stock mark
The Fed's Silent Wage Squeeze
With the September jobs report showing only twenty-nine thousand new positions and the unemployment rate ticking up to four point two percent, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky balancing act. Core inflation remains sticky at three percent on the preferred PCE gauge, yet the labor market is clearly cooling. Lucas and Luna explore how demographic shifts, specifically men losing ground in the employ
The September Jobs Report And The Fed's Next Move
With the September jobs report showing just twenty-nine thousand new positions and the unemployment rate climbing to four-point-two percent, the Federal Reserve faces a critical decision in October. Lucas and Luna break down why this specific labor data, combined with core PCE inflation holding at three percent, suggests the central bank may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle. They explore
Why The Fed Is Betting On Soft Labor Data
With the September jobs report showing just twenty-nine thousand new positions and unemployment rising to four point two percent, the Federal Reserve faces a critical decision in October. Lucas and Luna dissect why this specific labor market cooling is giving policymakers room to breathe, contrasting it with the sticky core PCE data that remains at three percent. They explore how the divergence be
The Fed's Silent Balance Sheet Squeeze
With the September jobs report showing only twenty-nine thousand new roles and unemployment ticking to four point two percent, the Federal Reserve faces a complex dilemma. While core inflation has cooled to three percent on the PCE gauge, the labor market is fracturing in unexpected ways, particularly among male workers. Lucas and Luna explore how the Fed’s silent balance sheet reduction is quietl
How the Fed's Silent Balance Sheet Squeeze Is Reshaping Policy
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing past five percent and the effective federal funds rate holding at three point six three percent, the Federal Reserve faces a structural constraint that headline inflation numbers miss. This episode explores how the shrinking size of the Fed’s balance sheet through quantitative tightening is quietly draining liquidity from the banking system, creating a sil
The Fed's Silent Squeeze On Corporate Cash
With the federal funds rate holding near 3.6 percent and global debt topping 365 trillion dollars, companies are facing a new reality. We look at how the shift from easy money to higher-for-longer rates is squeezing corporate cash reserves and forcing difficult capital allocation decisions right now in late September 2026.
#FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Corpora
The Fed's Silent Debt Wall
With global debt surpassing three hundred and sixty-five trillion dollars and Treasury yields climbing above five percent, the Federal Reserve faces a structural challenge that has nothing to do with inflation. Lucas and Luna break down how the maturing of cheap government bonds is quietly tightening financial conditions, forcing the central bank to navigate a liquidity squeeze that traditional po
The Yield Curve Trap And The Fed's Silent Crisis
With the ten-year Treasury yield surging past five point two percent and the S&P 500 pulling back, we examine how rising long-term rates are quietly strangling corporate refinancing walls. Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve’s hands are tied when market rates detach from policy rates, using the widening spread between short-term funding costs and long-term borrowing as the central ca
How Debt Maturity Risks Reshape Central Bank Policy
With global debt surpassing three hundred sixty-five trillion dollars and U.S. Treasury yields spiking, the Federal Reserve faces a new constraint: refinancing risk. Lucas and Luna explore how the maturity profile of government debt changes monetary policy dynamics. They analyze why rising long-term rates force the Fed to consider fiscal dominance, using data from the ten-year Treasury yield and r
Why Surging Yields Are Breaking The Fed Playbook
Lucas and Luna dissect the structural shift in Treasury markets, focusing on the ten-year yield hitting five point one eight percent as of late September twenty twenty-six. They explore how this rise is creating a new constraint for Federal Reserve policymakers, forcing them to navigate between sticky core inflation and a bond market that no longer accepts easy money. The conversation examines the
Why Surging Yields Are Breaking The Fed Playbook
Lucas and Luna dissect the paradox of September 2026: as the Federal Reserve holds rates steady, Treasury yields have spiked nearly five percent in just five days. With the ten-year yield climbing past five point two percent and global debt hitting three hundred sixty-five trillion dollars, Lucas and Luna explore why this quiet market revolt might be the most significant constraint on monetary pol
Why Rising Yields Are Breaking the Fed's Playbook
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to five point fifteen percent and global debt hitting three hundred sixty-five trillion dollars, the Federal Reserve faces a new constraint. Lucas and Luna explore how surging long-term rates are forcing the central bank to pause its policy easing, even as inflation remains sticky. We break down the mechanics of the Treasury General Account, the disconnect
How Climate Shocks Are Rewiring Central Bank Policy
The Federal Reserve is no longer treating climate risk as a peripheral environmental issue. With the Consumer Price Index hitting 334.1 in August and core PCE stubbornly above target, central bankers are realizing that physical shocks—like France’s wine production dropping to a seventy-year low or transport fuel spikes—are structurally altering inflation dynamics. Lucas and Luna break down why the
How Climate Shocks Are Rewiring Central Bank Policy
With the ten-year Treasury yield hovering near five percent and core PCE prices stubbornly above target, the Federal Reserve faces a new variable: climate-driven supply shocks. We explore how events like France’s wine production hitting a seventy-year low are forcing central bankers to rethink inflation targeting. This episode breaks down why weather volatility is no longer an external risk but a
How Climate Shocks Are Rewiring Central Bank Policy
With France’s wine production hitting a seventy-year low and global transport costs spiraling, climate change is no longer an environmental sidebar—it is a direct input into inflation data. Lucas and Luna explore how central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are adjusting monetary policy frameworks to account for supply-side shocks driven by extreme weather. We look at the specific mechanics o
Why Japan’s Rate Hike Confused Global Markets
When the Bank of Japan raised rates, stocks fell and bonds rallied — a move that defied decades of conventional wisdom. Lucas and Luna break down why this policy shift matters for global capital flows, how it exposes the fragility of carry trades, and what American investors should watch in their own portfolios as the dollar weakens against the yen.
#BankOfJapan #MonetaryPolicy #GlobalMarkets #Ca
The Happiness Gap in US Inflation Data
Lucas and Luna explore why consumer sentiment remains stubbornly low despite solid economic indicators like a core CPI of 337.8 and a PCE price index of 130.7. They examine Goldman Sachs' theory that lower happiness is driving this disconnect, asking whether the Fed's inflation targets are missing the real pain point: household stress. With oil prices adding $1,700 per household to costs, they dis
How Global Central Banks Are Decoupling From The Fed
With the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at three point six three percent while the Bank of England leaves its benchmark unchanged and Japan navigates post-hike turbulence, we explore why global monetary policy is fracturing. Lucas and Luna dissect the structural reasons central banks are no longer moving in lockstep, from divergent inflation drivers like UK energy costs to domestic labor mar
How Iran War Oil Prices Reshape Fed Policy
With oil prices surging due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, households face a steep $1,700 bill. We analyze how this energy shock interacts with the Federal Reserve’s current stance, the recent Bank of England decision, and why transport costs are becoming the new inflation battleground for policymakers in late September.
#FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #OilPrices #Inflation #Geopoli
How Oil Prices Are Reshaping Fed Rate Decisions
With oil prices climbing due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, households are facing a $1,700 hit per household on average. Lucas and Luna explore how this energy shock is feeding into core inflation metrics like the PCE price index and CPI. They analyze why the Federal Reserve might hesitate to cut rates despite softening labor data, focusing on the tension between transport costs and
The Fed's Silent Liquidity Trap
With the S&P 500 dipping and ten-year yields climbing to five percent, the Federal Reserve faces a quiet but dangerous constraint. We explore how shrinking bank reserves and rising Treasury General Account balances are limiting the central bank's ability to cut rates, even as inflation remains sticky above target. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of the liquidity squeeze and what it means f
The Wage-Inflation Trap Locking Fed Rates Higher
With August CPI data showing inflation outpacing wage growth, we examine the squeeze on American paychecks and what it means for Federal Reserve policy. Lucas and Luna discuss how sticky services inflation is locking interest rates higher, keeping the Fed Funds rate at 3.63 percent as consumer outlooks plunge. This episode breaks down the mechanics of real income erosion and why the central bank c
The Wage-Inflation Trap Locking Fed Rates Higher
Inflation is once again outpacing wage growth, squeezing American paychecks and complicating the Federal Reserve’s next move. With August CPI data showing persistent price pressures and core PCE holding steady above target, we examine why this divergence matters more than headline numbers suggest. Lucas and Luna break down how services inflation remains sticky while goods prices cool, creating a u
How Sticky Services Inflation Locks Fed Rates Higher
With the August CPI reading at 3.3 percent and core services excluding housing still stubborn, the Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act. Lucas and Luna dissect why shelter costs are no longer the sole villain in the inflation story, pointing to healthcare, legal fees, and insurance as the new sticky pockets driving price growth. They explore how this structural shift in consumer spending
Why the Fed Is Watching the Treasury General Account
With August CPI holding at three point three percent and bond yields climbing, the Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act. This episode explores how the Treasury General Account functions as the economy's hidden liquidity reservoir. Lucas and Luna break down why a sudden shift in government cash flows can tighten financial conditions overnight, effectively acting as an unannounced rate hik
Why the Fed Might Hike Rates Next Week
With markets down sharply this week and wholesale prices ticking up, the Federal Reserve faces a rare dilemma. Lucas and Luna break down why the probability of an interest rate hike next month has surged, despite cooling inflation headlines. They examine the specific mechanics of the September FOMC decision, focusing on the sticky core PCE data and the unexpected trade tensions with Canada that ar
Why the Fed Is Watching Canada's Tariffs
The U.S. and Canada are locked in a tit-for-tat trade dispute as of September 2026, with Canadian retaliatory tariffs hitting CA$27.6 billion and new U.S. import bans taking effect. For the Federal Reserve, this isn't just geopolitics; it is an immediate supply chain shock that threatens to push core inflation back up at a time when the central bank has barely blinked. Lucas and Luna break down ho
The Fed's Silent Liquidity Drain Explained
With the Treasury General Account fluctuating wildly and foreign reserves shifting globally, we explore how the Federal Reserve navigates liquidity without explicit balance sheet changes. We look at why August’s data suggests a hidden squeeze on bank reserves and what it means for rate policy heading into September.
#FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #TreasuryGeneralAccount #BankReserves #LiquidityC
Why August Payrolls Confuse the Fed
The August jobs report delivered one of the most confusing signals for monetary policy in recent memory. With payrolls rising by one hundred and sixty-two thousand—far exceeding expectations—and the unemployment rate holding steady at four point one percent, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky dilemma. Lucas and Luna break down why this specific combination of strong hiring and stable unemployment
Why Private Security Costs Are Eating Your Paycheck
As August payrolls surprised to the upside and unemployment held at four point one percent, a quiet structural shift is reshaping the American labor market. We examine how the personal protection industry has ballooned into a fifty billion dollar sector, driven by rising insurance premiums and shifting consumer behavior. Lucas and Luna break down why this isn't just about crime stats, but about wa
The Labor Market's Silent Shift
August payrolls rose 162,000 with women driving nearly all the gains while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna explore why this K-shaped labor recovery is forcing the Federal Reserve to rethink its dual mandate. With the Fed Funds effective rate sitting at 3.63 percent and core PCE still sticky, we examine how demographic shifts in hiring are reshaping wage pressure and polic
Why August Jobs Data Confuses the Fed's Next Move
The August jobs report showed a surprise gain of one hundred sixty-two thousand payrolls with unemployment holding at four point one percent, yet women accounted for almost all the new hires. Lucas and Luna break down why this gender-split labor data complicates the Federal Reserve's inflation calculus. They examine how core PCE remaining sticky near two point three percent in breakevens, combined
Why The Fed Is Watching Labor Market Friction
With the September FOMC meeting days away, market participants are fixated on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates or hold steady. While headline inflation has cooled, underlying labor market dynamics tell a more complex story. This episode examines the divergence between softening job growth and persistent wage pressures, using recent ADP data and core PCE readings to decode the Fed's likel
Why the Fed Is Watching Bank Reserves
With the S&P 500 down nearly one percent over the last five days and Treasury yields climbing, the market is signaling anxiety about liquidity. But while traders focus on the ten-year yield hitting 4.79 percent, the Federal Reserve has a different metric on its dashboard. We explore why the central bank is quietly shifting its attention to the level of bank reserves in the banking system. With pri
Why the Fed Fears a Silent Liquidity Crisis
The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex landscape in September 2026. With the S&P 500 down over half a percent this week and the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to nearly 4.8%, markets are signaling stress. But Lucas and Luna argue the real danger isn't just inflation or growth—it's the quiet drying up of liquidity in the repo market. They explore how falling bank reserves and rising short-te
Why the Fed Is Watching the Ten-Year Breakeven Rate
The ten-year breakeven inflation rate has dipped to 2.31 percent, down from 2.33 last week. That small move might be the most telling signal in the bond market right now. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what breakevens actually measure, why the Fed's favorite inflation gauge—core PCE—is running hotter than the market's expectations, and what it means when the two start to diverge. They look
The Fed's Quiet Pivot on Bank Reserves
In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack a subtle but significant shift at the Federal Reserve: the slow drift in how the central bank manages the floor under money market rates. They anchor the conversation in the August 2026 data, noting the interest on reserve balances at 3.65 percent and the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, and explain why the gap between these two numbers matters more
Why the Fed Is Watching the K-Shaped Recovery
The economy is growing, but not for everyone. This episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast digs into the K-shaped recovery — the split between upper-income consumers and everyone else — and why it matters for monetary policy. Lucas and Luna break down the latest core PCE reading of 3.3 percent annual inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, and what it tells us about the central bank's next move. They
Why the Fed Is Watching the Core PCE Surprise
Core inflation came in hotter than expected in July, with the Fed's preferred gauge rising 0.3 percent for the month. That nudges the annual rate to 3.3 percent, well above the Fed's two percent target. On this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into what the core PCE reading means for the Fed's timeline and the market's reaction. They break down why the two-year yield has room to drift higher, how polic
Treasury Buybacks and the Fed's Balance Sheet Endgame
With the Treasury General Account reportedly near one trillion dollars and bond buybacks back in the headlines, Lucas and Luna unpack what the Fed's balance sheet runoff really means for markets. They connect the dots between the Fed's quantitative tightening, the plumbing of money markets, and the Treasury's cash management strategy. Using the latest data — including the fed funds rate at 3.63 pe
Why the Fed Is Watching the Treasury General Account's New Math
The Treasury General Account, or TGA, is the government's checking account at the Fed. It's usually a dry technical detail, but in August 2026 it's become a flashpoint. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has floated using the TGA's near-trillion-dollar balance to fund bond buybacks, a move designed to ease pressure on the long end of the curve. Critics like Stanley Druckenmiller say it's financial e
Why the Fed Cares About the Treasury General Account
The Treasury General Account, or TGA, is the checking account the U.S. Treasury keeps at the Federal Reserve. Its balance swings by hundreds of billions of dollars, and those swings matter for bank reserves, money-market rates, and the Fed's balance-sheet plans. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explain how the TGA works, why the Fed watches it so closely, and how a near-$1 trillion balance could fa
Why the Fed Is Watching the Treasury General Account
The Treasury General Account is back in focus as Washington weighs near-trillion-dollar buybacks to calm the bond market — and the Fed is watching closely. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the TGA is, how it affects bank reserves and money markets, and why the Fed's balance sheet math gets complicated when the Treasury starts spending. With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent a
The Fed's Narrow Path Between Inflation and a Debt Ceiling Crisis
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's latest balancing act as the U.S. government debt crosses $40 trillion and Treasury yields climb. With the ten-year Treasury at 4.74 percent and the two-year at 3.71, the Fed faces a delicate dance: keeping inflation in check while avoiding a fiscal crisis. The conversation centers on Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent bond-buyback op
Why the Fed Watches the Debt Ceiling's New Math
On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a number that just crossed a striking threshold: the U.S. national debt has passed $40 trillion, more than doubling in a decade. With the Fed Funds rate sitting at 3.63 percent and the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.74 percent, the cost of servicing that debt is starting to matter for monetary policy. Lucas explains the Fed's de
Why Treasury Buybacks Are Back in the Headlines
The U.S. Treasury has started buying back its own bonds again — a tool not used in decades. On this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what Treasury buybacks are, why the government is using them now, and what it means for inflation, the $40 trillion debt pile, and your portfolio. They look at the recent $4 billion buyback operation, the rise in ten-year breakevens to 2.34 percent, and what the Tr
The $40 Trillion Debt Ceiling Dilemma
The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion, doubling in a decade. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into what that number means for the Federal Reserve's independence and its ability to fight inflation. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 and the ten-year Treasury at 4.70, the cost of servicing that debt is becoming a political flashpoint. We explore the delicate balance the Fed faces: raising
How the Fed Reads the Ivory Tower Inflation Signal
In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why the Fed is watching the University of Michigan's inflation expectations survey more closely than ever. With the ten-year breakeven rate creeping up to 2.30 percent and core PCE still sticky, the hosts dissect how consumer sentiment data has become a key input for monetary policy. They discuss the survey's methodology, its r
The Fed's Quiet Fix for Repo Market Stress
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the Federal Reserve's latest quiet but crucial intervention: using its standing repo facility to cap money market rates. With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and the interest on reserve balances at 3.65, the gap is wider than usual, signaling subtle strain. They break down how the facility works, why the Fed is using it now, and what it tells us
The Fed's New Toolkit for Steering Money Market Rates
The Federal Reserve has been quietly building a new set of tools to control short-term interest rates, and it's changing how the central bank steers the economy. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics behind the Fed's latest innovation—the Standing Repo Facility—and why it matters for inflation and your money market fund. They explore how the facility works, the numbers behind it
The Fed's New Tool for Controlling Money Market Rates
On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a quiet but significant shift in how the Fed manages short-term interest rates. With the effective federal funds rate sitting at 3.63 percent and the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, the Fed has been relying on a new tool: the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility. Lucas explains why this facility ha
How the Fed Reads the Core PCE Puzzle
On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the gap between the CPI and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index. With CPI ticking up in July but core PCE cooling in the latest reading, the hosts explain why the Fed leans on PCE, how the weights differ, and what the 10-year breakeven rate—now at 2.27 percent—says about market expectations. They walk
The Fed Is Watching the Two-Year Yield's Message
The two-year Treasury yield has been sending mixed signals, rising and then falling as markets parse the Fed's next move. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed watches this specific maturity so closely, what the recent swings suggest about rate expectations, and why the yield curve's message might be more reliable than the latest CPI print. They discuss the current level near 3.70
Why the Fed Keeps a Window Open to Rate Hikes
The Fed's benchmark rate has been parked at 3.63 percent since July, but the July CPI report shows inflation at 3.4 percent, while the ten-year breakeven rate dipped to 2.27. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the Fed's subtle signals that it hasn't closed the door to another hike—even as markets assume the next move is a cut. They discuss the central bank's language around 'adjustments' ver
Why the Fed Is Watching the Two-Year Yield So Closely
In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the recent moves in the two-year Treasury yield and why it has become the Fed's favorite market signal. They explore the mechanics of how the two-year yield reflects rate expectations, the recent rise in the yield to 4.69 percent while the Fed holds steady, and what this means for the policy path in the fall. They also discus
How the Fed Reads the July Jobs Report
The July jobs report landed with a jolt: a loss of 23,000 jobs, the first outright decline in years, while the unemployment rate held steady. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the Fed actually sees in these numbers—and why the headline misses the point. They break down the signal in the ADP private payroll figure of 44,000, the cooling in wage growth, and how the Fed's own projections no
Why the Fed Is Watching the Wage-Price Spiral Signal
In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine a subtle but critical signal the Federal Reserve is monitoring after the disappointing July jobs report: wage growth. With the U.S. economy unexpectedly losing 23,000 jobs in July, the hosts drill into why the Fed cares more about average hourly earnings than the headline payroll number. They explain how the wage-price spiral could re-ignite inflation even a
Why the Fed Watches the August Jobs Report With Extra Care
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into why the July jobs report landed with a thud and what it means for the Federal Reserve's next move. They unpack the unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs, the slowdown in private hiring, and how the Fed is interpreting these numbers against the backdrop of easing inflation. With the two-year Treasury yield ticking up and the ten-year breakeven rate dipping, they ex
Why the Fed Watches the Jobs Report's Wage Signal
After the July jobs report showed a surprise loss of 23,000 jobs, the Federal Reserve is parsing more than just the headline. Lucas and Luna dig into why the Fed watches the wage growth component closely, how a cooling labor market interacts with sticky core inflation, and what the recent rise in ten-year breakevens tells us about market expectations. They also unpack the disconnect between the AD
Why the Fed Is Watching the Yield Curve's Message
In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into one specific signal the Fed is tracking this August: the curve between the short end and the long end, and the real rate that sits underneath. With the effective fed funds rate pinned at 3.63 percent and the ten-year Treasury near 4.67 percent, the spread is telling a story about where the economy is headed. They examine why a
Why the Fed Watches the New York Fed's Supply Chain Index
On the 150th episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into a data point the Fed has quietly been leaning on: the New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. With imported-goods inflation cooling but the manufacturing survey flashing 'worse than pandemic era' price worries, the hosts explain why the Fed tracks the flow of shipping containers, port backlogs, and freight ra
Why the Fed Is Obsessed With the Real Rate
Lucas and Luna unpack the Federal Reserve's subtle pivot toward the real interest rate — the nominal rate minus inflation expectations — and why it matters right now. With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and ten-year breakevens sliding to 2.27 percent, the real rate has quietly climbed to levels not seen since before the 2008 crisis. The hosts explain how this shift is shaping the Fed
Why the Fed Watches the Manufacturing Price Hike Signal
In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising new signal that has Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's attention: a manufacturing survey from August 2026 showing price pressures 'worse than the pandemic era.' While headline CPI is cooling and the Fed funds rate sits at 3.63 percent, this factory-level inflation reading hints at a different story. They unpack what the surv
Why the Fed Tracks the Real Rate Through Ten-Year Breakevens
In Federal Reserve Podcast episode 147, Lucas and Luna examine why the Fed is zeroing in on the real interest rate derived from ten-year breakevens. With the ten-year breakeven ticking up to 2.28 percent while core PCE climbs to 130.3, the hosts decode what this signal means for Warsh's Fed amid a divided committee and slowing GDP. They break down how the real rate influences borrowing, investment
The Fed's Quiet New Tool for Inflation Control
In episode 146 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a shift in how the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh is approaching inflation control: the renewed emphasis on the interest on reserve balances (IORB) rate as a precision tool. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and IORB at 3.65%, the hosts explain why the Fed prefers this fine-tuning mechanism over the broader fed funds target r
How the Fed Weighs Slowing GDP Against Sticky Core Inflation
In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down the Fed's dilemma after Q2 GDP came in at just 1.5% while core PCE inflation remains at 3.3%. They discuss how the internal divide at the FOMC is shaping expectations for the next move, and what the 10-year breakeven rate at 2.26% tells us about market sentiment. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and the two-year yield fallin
The Fed's Internal Divide Over Inflation Data
The Federal Reserve is publicly united but privately split. As of late July 2026, PCE inflation is creeping up while CPI eases — and Fed officials are drawing opposite conclusions. In this episode, we examine the two camps: the hawks who see sticky services and rising breakevens (now at 2.26 percent) and the doves who point to falling goods prices and a cooling economy. We discuss how this divisio
Why the Two-Year Yield Is Falling Again
In this episode, Lucas and Luna revisit the two-year Treasury yield, which has reversed its recent uptrend and dropped roughly 10 basis points in a week to 3.69%. They explore why the bond market is now pricing in a Fed rate cut as soon as November, despite a slight uptick in core PCE inflation. The discussion contrasts the US market's easing bets with Singapore's surprising tightening move, and h
Why the Two-Year Yield Is Rising While the Fed Holds
The two-year Treasury yield has climbed to 3.76% even as the Fed funds rate sits flat at 3.63%. Lucas and Luna unpack what's behind the move: new tariff measures, a surprise jump in import prices from China, and the market's growing expectation that the Fed may need to tighten despite falling breakeven inflation. They discuss whether the Fed will acknowledge this signal at the upcoming FOMC meetin
Why Shelter Inflation Is the Feds Biggest Headache
CPI fell in June, but shelter costs remain stubbornly above 5 percent year-over-year. Lucas and Luna break down the lag between market rents and official inflation measures, what the Fed watches instead, and why the ten-year breakeven rate at 2.21 percent suggests investors expect the Fed to win — but not just yet. With global central banks tightening and tariffs resurfacing, the housing data may
How Kevin Warsh's Phrases Reveal the Fed's Next Move
In Episode 140, Lucas and Luna decode three key phrases from Kevin Warsh's recent speech that hint at the Fed's thinking amid falling breakeven rates (2.21%) and rising core PCE (130.1). They explore how the Fed's communication strategy matters more than ever when data sends mixed signals, and what it means for the rate path ahead. Plus, a quick note on how listener support keeps the podcast ad-fr
Why Falling Breakeven Rates Give the Fed Cover Despite Sticky PCE
In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox of falling market-implied inflation expectations — the 10-year breakeven rate dropped to 2.21 percent in late July 2026 — even as core PCE ticked up to its highest level in months. They explore why the Fed prioritizes the breakeven over backward-looking data, how the Singapore central bank's surprise tightening contr
How the Fed Weighs Tariff and Oil Shocks Against Soft Inflation
On July 24, 2026, President Trump announced a new global tariff, and import prices from China hit their highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, core CPI fell and the Fed's preferred PCE measure rose. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore how the Federal Reserve is reconciling these contradictory signals: supply-side inflation pressures from tariffs and rising oil versus cooling domestic demand. Wit
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