Home
Podcasts
The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Macro Memo with Fexingo is a daily podcast hosted by Lucas and Luna that examines the latest macroeconomic data and what it means for markets, businesses, and portfolios. Each episode goes beyond headline CPI prints and Fed dot plots to debate the implications for the yield curve, corporate borrowing costs, and the odds of a soft landing. Lucas brings historical context, such as comparisons to 1970s inflation and the Taylor rule, while Luna focuses on sector-level evidence about cost pass-through and margin compression. They also work through GDP revisions, employment cost indexes, and fed funds futures to separate signal from noise. The show is aimed at listeners who already understand concepts like M2 and M1 and want professional-level analysis without guests or hot takes.
Episodes
Why The Fed Funds Rate Matters More Than The 10 Year Yield
With the ten-year Treasury yield hovering near five point two four percent and the S&P 500 flirting with seven thousand eight hundred, investors are fixated on long-end rates. But Lucas and Luna argue that the real signal is in the short end. They dissect the Federal Funds effective rate sitting at three point seven five percent and how it interacts with the Interest on Reserve Balances to create
The Sticky Price Illusion In The September Data
Lucas and Luna dissect the gap between headline inflation and the reality of everyday prices in early October 2026. With core PCE holding at 130.5 and job openings falling to 7,079 thousand, they explore why tariff-driven costs are reshaping consumer behavior without showing up clearly in broad aggregates. The conversation anchors on the New York Fed’s recent findings about tariff pass-through and
The Tariff Inflation Trap Hitting Everyday Prices
Lucas and Luna unpack why inflation on many everyday items remains stubbornly high despite broader cooling trends, tracing the specific impact of recent tariffs. With core PCE holding at one hundred thirty point five and job openings falling to seven thousand seventy nine thousand in August, the duo examines how trade policy is reshaping consumer costs and labor dynamics heading into October twent
Why Inflation Fears Are Surging Despite Cooling Data
With the S&P 500 holding near 7,816 and the ten-year Treasury yield dipping to 5.24 percent, markets are signaling calm even as consumer anxiety spikes. This episode examines why the one-year inflation outlook in the latest Fed survey has hit its highest level since May twenty twenty three, while core CPI remains sticky at 337.8. Lucas and Luna dissect the disconnect between headline economic indi
How Tariffs Are Rewriting The Inflation Rulebook
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine a surprising shift in the inflation landscape. New analysis from the New York Federal Reserve suggests that recent price increases on everyday goods are being driven primarily by tariffs rather than traditional supply chain bottlenecks or wage pressures. With core CPI holding at three hundred thirty seven point eight and the ten year breake
Why The Fed's Rate Hikes Are Sticking
With the Federal Reserve Funds rate holding at three point seven five percent and core PCE inflation ticking up to one point two percent year-over-year, the narrative of a soft landing is getting complicated. We look at why borrowing costs are refusing to follow the curve down, how the trade deficit hitting one hundred five point six billion dollars signals external pressure, and what the recent I
The September Jobs Report Reality Check
Lucas and Luna dissect the September labor market data that signals a genuine cooling rather than just noise. With unemployment ticking up to four point two percent and nonfarm payrolls adding only twenty nine thousand jobs, the Fed faces a critical calibration moment. They explore how this shift from overheating to stabilization impacts the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision and what i
The Demographic Cliff Hitting Western Economies
Western populations are beginning to shrink, creating a structural headwind for public finances and labor markets that no amount of monetary policy can fix. With the unemployment rate rising to four point two percent in September and job openings falling to just over seven thousand, we explore how an aging workforce is redefining growth. Lucas and Luna break down why the traditional model of expan
Why The Labor Market Is Hiding Its Weakness
The September jobs report showed only twenty-nine thousand new positions, yet the headline numbers look deceptively calm. Lucas and Luna unpack why the official unemployment rate of four point two percent masks a deeper structural shift in male labor force participation and service-sector hiring. They explore how falling job openings at JOLTS and rising initial claims suggest the Fed’s higher rate
The Gender Gap In The September Jobs Report
September’s jobs report revealed a stark divergence: private sector hiring slowed significantly, yet the unemployment rate ticked up only slightly to 4.2 percent. More striking was the underlying data showing men losing ground in the labor market while women’s employment remained resilient. Lucas and Luna break down why this gender gap matters for inflation dynamics, wage growth, and the Federal R
The Productivity Paradox Inflation
Why core inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's target despite slowing growth and a cooling labor market. We examine the disconnect between rising unit labor costs and stagnant productivity, exploring how service-sector efficiency gaps are reshaping price stability in late 2026.
#FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Inflation #FederalReserve #Productivity #LaborMarket #U
The Hidden Tax Of Global Debt Saturation
With global debt topping three hundred sixty-five trillion dollars, the sheer weight of borrowing is reshaping interest rate expectations. Lucas and Luna examine how this saturation forces central banks to walk a tighter line between controlling inflation and preventing a liquidity crunch. They look at why bond yields are rising even as growth slows, creating a silent tax on corporate investment a
The Bond Market Silent Rebellion Against The Fed
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to five point three percent and global debt hitting three hundred sixty-five trillion dollars, a structural shift is underway. Lucas and Luna examine why bond investors are pricing in higher inflation expectations despite stable core PCE numbers. They explore how rising yields are constraining corporate investment and forcing a recalibration of monetary po
The Real Cost of Global Debt Saturation
With global debt surpassing 365 trillion dollars and U.S. real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent, the macro environment is shifting from growth-driven to balance-sheet-driven. Lucas and Luna dissect how this saturation creates a vicious cycle for central banks, forcing them to manage interest rates not just for inflation, but for solvency. They explore the disconnect between rising Treasury yields
The Bond Market's Silent Rebellion Against The Fed
With the ten-year Treasury yield surging to five point two three percent in late September twenty twenty six, bond markets are signaling a loss of faith in the Federal Reserve's ability to control long-term rates. Lucas and Luna dissect why rising yields despite stable short-term policy create a structural headwind for growth, examining the disconnect between the FOMC's thirty-nine basis point res
The Bond Market Silent Rebellion Against The Fed
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing past five percent while the S&P 500 holds steady, we explore why bond investors are quietly rejecting the Federal Reserve's current path. Lucas and Luna dissect how rising borrowing costs are creating a silent tax on growth, forcing the central bank to navigate a narrow lane between sticky inflation and a cooling labor market. We look at the divergence bet
Why Bond Yields Are Defying The Fed
With the ten-year Treasury yield hitting five point one eight percent in late September twenty twenty six, the bond market is sending a clear signal that disagrees with the Federal Reserve’s current pause. We explore why rising yields are challenging the central bank’s narrative, how this shift impacts everything from mortgage rates to corporate borrowing costs, and what it means for investors nav
The Global Debt Trap Behind Rising Yields
With global debt hitting three hundred sixty five trillion dollars and the ten-year Treasury yield climbing toward five point two percent, we examine the structural pressure on sovereign balance sheets. Lucas and Luna break down how this 'vicious cycle' of borrowing to service debt is reshaping interest rate expectations in late September twenty twenty six.
#GlobalDebt #TreasuryYields #SovereignB
The Silent Tax of Rising Borrowing Costs
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing above five percent and the Dow struggling to keep pace, we examine how elevated borrowing costs are quietly reshaping corporate balance sheets. Using data from August payrolls and recent bond market moves, Lucas and Luna explore why cheap money is gone for good and what that means for small business expansion, commercial real estate, and the broader econom
The Silent Squeeze Of Rising Borrowing Costs
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing above five percent and short-term rates holding near four, we explore how higher borrowing costs are quietly reshaping corporate balance sheets. Lucas and Luna break down why companies that relied on cheap debt for expansion are now facing a margin squeeze, even as consumer sentiment remains surprisingly resilient. We look at the specific mechanics of refi
The Quiet Crisis Of Falling Consumer Sentiment
Why American consumers feel poorer despite a solid economy and rising GDP. We unpack the Goldman Sachs report on the 'happiness gap,' examining how sticky services inflation and wage stagnation are eroding real purchasing power. With core CPI holding at 337.8 and job openings climbing to 7,271 thousand, we analyze why the data says one thing while wallets say another.
#ConsumerSentiment #Economic
The Bond Market's Silent Rebellion Against The Fed
While the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at a three point six three percent effective rate, the bond market is quietly signaling a different story. On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dissect the divergence between official policy and what traders are pricing in for the rest of 2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield hovering near four point nine seven percent and short-t
The Paradox of Weak Growth and High Inflation
Lucas and Luna unpack the disorienting economic landscape of late September 2026, where nominal GDP is rising but real growth has stalled at one point five percent. With core CPI still climbing and the Fed Funds rate holding near three point six percent, they explore why consumer sentiment is hitting record lows despite a functioning labor market. The episode focuses on the specific friction betwe
The Happiness Gap Why Sentiment Lags Growth
August payrolls added strong jobs and the dollar holds steady near three point nine percent, yet consumer sentiment is plunging. We look at why Goldman Sachs calls it lower happiness despite a solid economy. The disconnect between nominal GDP growth and wallet comfort reveals how inflation’s shadow still shapes daily life even when headline numbers look fine.
#ConsumerSentiment #EconomicPsycholog
The Fed's Silent Tax on Consumer Credit
We drill into the hidden cost of the current rate environment: revolving consumer credit. With the federal funds rate sitting at three point six three percent and core PCE holding steady around three percent, Americans are facing a new kind of inflation. We look at how the four percent average APR on credit cards is acting as a silent tax on middle-class wallets, squeezing disposable income withou
The Fed's Shadow Metric That Changes Everything
Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve is watching the shadow price of money more than inflation. With the ten-year Treasury yield holding near four point ninety-five percent while core PCE creeps up, the real story isn't headline CPI—it's the cost of capital for small businesses and consumer credit. We explore how the spread between short-term funding costs and long-term bond yields is
How Oil Shocks Rewrite Inflation Rules
Transport companies are sounding alarms on fuel prices while households face a one thousand seven hundred dollar bill from the Iran war’s economic ripple effects. Lucas and Luna dissect how energy spikes distort core inflation metrics, why the Fed’s traditional tools struggle with supply-driven price shocks, and what the latest CPI and PCE data tell us about sticky services versus volatile goods.
The Sticky Trap of Services Inflation
With the S&P 500 down nearly one percent this week and the ten-year Treasury yield holding steady at five percent, the market is bracing for a Federal Reserve rate hike. But the real story isn't the headline inflation number—it is the stubborn persistence of services pricing. Lucas and Luna dissect why goods deflation is being masked by sticky shelter costs and how the labor force participation ra
Why Real Wages Are Finally Catching Up
With the unemployment rate holding at 4.10 percent and core CPI rising to 337.8 in August, the narrative that workers are losing ground is shifting. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of real wage growth, using average hourly earnings data to show how purchasing power is finally stabilizing after years of erosion. They examine why this metric matters more than headline inflation for household
The Sticky Wage Inflation Trap
With August CPI coming in at 334.1 and core measures refusing to budge, the Fed faces a new dilemma: wage growth is outpacing productivity gains, keeping services inflation stubbornly high. Lucas and Luna dissect why nominal GDP growth of 1.5 percent real output masks the underlying pressure on American paychecks, and why the labor market's hidden tightness might force rates higher for longer. We
The Wage-Inflation Gap Squeezing American Paychecks
Inflation is outpacing wage growth in August, creating a real income squeeze for Americans. Lucas and Luna break down the divergence between core CPI at 337.8 and average hourly earnings of thirty-seven dollars and eighty cents. They explore how sticky services inflation erodes purchasing power despite steady job openings and a flat unemployment rate of four point one percent.
#WageGrowth #Inflat
Why Services Inflation Is The Fed's Real Problem
With the August CPI ticking up to 334.1 and core PCE stubborn at 130.7, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky decision this week. Lucas and Luna dissect why goods inflation has vanished while services prices continue to climb. They examine the wage-price dynamics in healthcare and housing, exploring how sticky service costs are keeping the FOMC on hold despite cooling headline numbers. This episode b
The Trade War Inflation Shock
Lucas and Luna dissect the immediate economic shock of the U.S. import ban on Canadian goods, analyzing how retaliatory tariffs and rising wholesale prices are reshaping inflation expectations right now in September 2026. With core CPI holding at 336.8 and the ten-year Treasury yield climbing toward five percent, they explore why the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise rates despite softening G
The Fed's Hidden Metric That Changes Everything
We dig into the Treasury General Account and why its fluctuations matter more than you think for market stability. With the TGA balance shifting, we explore how this single account impacts liquidity and interest rates. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics behind the scenes, offering a fresh perspective on monetary policy transmission. Tune in to understand the subtle signals that professional t
The Hidden Cost of Japan's Currency Intervention
Japan just burned through eighty billion dollars in foreign reserves to defend the yen, a staggering move that signals deep anxiety about import inflation and capital flight. Lucas and Luna dissect why Tokyo is willing to hemorrhage cash while the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at three point six percent, exploring how this currency war spills over into global trade tensions and consumer price
Why Sticky Services Inflation Is Keeping Rates High
With the August unemployment rate holding steady at four point one percent and core PCE inflation ticking up to one point three percent, the Federal Reserve faces a stubborn puzzle. Lucas and Luna break down why services inflation, particularly in housing and insurance, refuses to cool like goods prices did in previous cycles. They examine the lag between wage growth and service sector pricing, as
The Silent Tax of Sticky Core Inflation
With core PCE holding at 130.7 in July and the Fed Funds rate flat at 3.63 percent, the economy is stuck in a high-cost equilibrium. Lucas and Luna dissect why services inflation remains stubborn despite softening goods prices, how wage growth continues to fuel this dynamic, and what the labor market data from August reveals about the true cost of living for American households.
#FexingoBusiness
The Hidden Trap of Rising Nominal GDP
Lucas and Luna dissect the divergence between real and nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026. With nominal GDP hitting 32.5 trillion while real growth stalled at 1.5 percent, they explore how inflation is masking economic weakness. They examine what this gap means for corporate earnings, consumer purchasing power, and why the Federal Reserve might be misreading the strength of the current expansion.
#Fex
The Gender Gap in August Payrolls
August payrolls added 162,000 jobs, beating expectations and keeping the unemployment rate flat at 4.1 percent. But look closer at the composition: women accounted for almost all of the net gains while men’s employment stalled or dipped slightly. Lucas and Luna unpack why this divergence matters for the Federal Reserve’s September decision, how it skews wage growth data, and what it signals about
Why The Fed Is Ignoring The Labor Market Right Now
With the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent and nonfarm payrolls quietly shrinking, Lucas and Luna unpack why the Federal Reserve is looking past the jobs report. They examine the disconnect between rising job openings and stagnant hiring, asking whether the labor market is actually cooling or just changing shape. Using August ADP data and July JOLTS figures, they explore how wage growth remains sti
The Real Cost of AI Energy Consumption
We look at the hidden energy tax on artificial intelligence. With power grids straining under data center demand, how does this impact consumer prices and industrial costs? We break down the numbers behind electricity usage in tech hubs.
#ArtificialIntelligence #EnergyConsumption #DataCenters #ElectricityGrids #InflationaryPressures #InfrastructureCosts #TechIndustry #PowerDemand #EconomicImpact
Why Wage Growth Is Fueling Sticky Inflation
With core PCE still rising and job openings climbing despite soft payrolls, Lucas and Luna dissect the disconnect between cooling GDP growth and persistent wage pressures. They explore how average hourly earnings are outpacing productivity in key sectors, creating a wage-price spiral risk that keeps the Federal Reserve cautious. Using July data showing unemployment at 4.1 percent alongside rising
Why India's 7.8 Percent Growth Is a Double-Edged Sword
India's economy just grew 7.8% in the April-to-June quarter, beating every forecast. Lucas and Luna break down what that number really means — and why it's not the unalloyed good news it might seem. They dig into the composition of that growth, the role of government spending versus private investment, and why the Reserve Bank of India is in a tricky spot with inflation still above target. They al
Why the Fed Is Splitting From the Markets This Season
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but telling divergence: the Fed's own preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, is still running at 3.3 percent annually, while the 10-year breakeven rate just ticked down to 2.31 percent. They unpack what that gap signals about the Fed's next move, how the bond market is pricing a different path than the dot plot, and why
Why the Fed Watches the Labor Force Participation Rate
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, core PCE, came in at 3.3% annually for July — still above target. But beneath that headline number, a quieter story is unfolding in the labor market: the participation rate, which has been slowly climbing, is changing how the Fed reads wage pressure and inflation. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into why participation matters more than the unemployment rate
How the Fed Reads the PCE Deflator
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge: the PCE price index. With July core PCE coming in at 3.3 percent year-over-year, they explain why the Fed watches PCE instead of the CPI, how it's built from business data rather than consumer surveys, and what the latest numbers mean for the path of interest rates. They break down the diffe
Why the Fed Ignores the Yield Curve Now
Despite the S&P 500 sitting near record highs and the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent, the yield curve has inverted for months. Lucas and Luna dig into why the Federal Reserve is paying less attention to this classic recession signal than in past cycles. They break down the specific mechanics: how the Fed's balance sheet, the Treasury General Account, and the surge in Treasury issuance have disto
Why the Fed's New Favorite Inflation Gauge Is the PCE
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack why the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, just showed core prices up 3.3 percent annually in July. They explain the structural differences between PCE and CPI, why the Fed leans on PCE despite its quirks, and what the recent plateau in core PCE means for the path of rate cuts. With th
Why the Fed Watches the 10-Year Breakeven Rate Now
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.32 percent—has become the Fed's favored temperature gauge for inflation expectations. They explore how it's calculated from TIPS versus nominal Treasury yields, why it matters more than the latest CPI print, and what a falling breakeven rate could signal for the Fed's next move. The hos
Why the Treasury General Account Could Calm the Bond Market
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising tool Treasury Secretary Bessent might use to calm the bond market: the nearly one trillion dollars sitting in the Treasury General Account. They explain what the TGA is, why its size has grown so large, and how tapping it to fund bond buybacks could affect short-term interest rates, bank reserves, and inflation expectations
Why the Fed Watches the 10-Year Breakeven Rate
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a number that doesn't make headlines but quietly shapes every Fed decision: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. Sitting at 2.34 percent in late August 2026, it's oddly stable while the bond market throws fits over Treasury buybacks and a $40 trillion debt pile. Lucas walks through what breakevens actually measure, why they matter more th
Why the Fed Ignores the Yield Curve Now
Lucas and Luna unpack why the yield curve's inversion in 2026 is no longer the recession signal it used to be. With the ten-year Treasury at 4.74 percent, the two-year at 3.71 percent, and the Fed stuck at 3.63 percent, the curve remains deeply inverted—yet the economy keeps growing. They explore how quantitative tightening, a record $40 trillion national debt, and a Treasury buyback program from
Why the Fed Ignores the Record $40 Trillion Debt
The U.S. government debt has just passed $40 trillion, more than doubling in a decade. As Treasury Secretary Bessent declares the deficit has peaked, the Fed under Chair Warsh keeps rates on hold, watching inflation and jobs data instead of the debt pile. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the economic logic behind the Fed's apparent indifference: why the central bank's mandate doesn't include
The $40 Trillion Debt and Why the Fed Ignores It
The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion, doubling in a decade. But the Federal Reserve, focused on inflation and employment, largely ignores it. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the debt doesn't directly drive Fed policy, how Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments on a peaking deficit fit into the picture, and what the Fed actually watches instead—like core PCE, job openings, and
How Factory Weakness Is Skewing the Fed's Next Move
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but telling signal in the latest economic data: manufacturing is stumbling while services hold up. They trace how the July jobs report—where payrolls dipped slightly but unemployment fell to 4.1 percent—reflects that split, and why the Fed is paying more attention to factory output than headline growth. With real GDP growth sliding to 1.5 percent an
How the Fed Reads the Budget Deficit Surge
The July budget deficit hit its highest level since March 2021, yet the Fed seems unfazed. In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack why the central bank watches the deficit with a long-term lens, how bond markets are pricing in the surge, and what it means for the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.71 percent. They connect the dots between record federal borrowing, the Fed's independence
Why the Fed Watches the Budget Deficit
On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine a paradox: inflation is cooling, the Fed is on hold, and yet the yield curve is steepening as the ten-year Treasury yield climbs. The culprit, they argue, is the exploding U.S. budget deficit, which surged to its highest level since March 2021 in July. With nominal GDP at $32.5 trillion and the government borrowing heavily, bond investors a
Why the Fed Ignores the Budget Deficit's Record Surge
On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the July budget deficit — the largest since March 2021 — and ask a simple question: why doesn't the Federal Reserve seem to care? They explain how deficit spending doesn't automatically fuel inflation when the economy is operating below capacity, and how the Fed's focus on inflation expectations, not fiscal numbers, shapes its response. Wi
Why the July Jobs Report Signals a Fed Shift
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the July jobs report and why it's the Fed's toughest puzzle yet. Unemployment fell to 4.1 percent while payrolls shrank by 23,000 — a split that has the Fed on hold. They unpack what the household survey is telling us, why job openings have dropped to 7.36 million, and how the Fed's focus on the labor market, not inflation, is shaping the
Why Unemployment Fell While Payrolls Shrank
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet anomaly in the July jobs report: the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent even as nonfarm payrolls posted a net decline. They explore how the household survey and the establishment survey can diverge, what falling job openings (down to 7.36 million) and a slight uptick in initial claims tell us about labor market slack, and
The Hidden Cost of Cheap Lettuce
Lettuce prices just crashed to record lows, and that's not the good-news story it sounds like. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the economics of food deflation: why a cyclospora scare sent demand off a cliff, what the plunge in wholesale produce prices reveals about the fragility of the fresh-food supply chain, and why cheap lettuce might actually be a warning sign for inflation. They connec
Why Lettuce Prices Are Crashing While Inflation Sticks
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking anomaly in this morning's CPI report: lettuce prices plunged at a record pace, dragged down by cyclospora fears, even as the overall inflation rate held at 3.4 percent. They unpack how a single health scare can distort the inflation numbers the Federal Reserve watches, and why core measures that strip out food and energy still r
Why the July Jobs Report Shook the Fed
The July jobs report showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in years. Lucas and Luna dig into what this means for the Fed's next move: a potential rate cut in September, a repricing of the yield curve, and the puzzle of falling inflation alongside a cooling labor market. They unpack the numbers—unemployment at 4.1%, core PCE still elevated, and the ten-year
Why July Jobs Report Signals a Fed Shift
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dissect the surprising July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in years. They unpack what this means for the Fed's next move, especially with core PCE ticking up and GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent. The hosts discuss the divergence between the household and establishment surveys, the drop in job openings, an
Why the July Jobs Report Is the Fed's Toughest Puzzle Yet
The July jobs report showed a surprise loss of 23,000 jobs — the first outright decline in years. Lucas and Luna dig into what this actually means for the Federal Reserve's rate path. They unpack the divergence between the payroll number and the unemployment rate, which fell to 4.1 percent, and why the Fed is likely to look through the headline. With core PCE still running above target and the ten
Why the July Jobs Report Is the Fed's Toughest Puzzle Yet
The July jobs report delivered a rare surprise: the US economy lost 23,000 jobs, even as the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for the Federal Reserve's policy path. They dig into the numbers—payrolls slipping to 158.9 million, job openings easing to 7.4 million, and wage growth holding steady at $37.60 an hour—and explain why this mixed picture is
Why the Fed Watches the Jobs Report So Closely
When the July jobs report hit the wires on August 7, 2026, the headline number was a surprise: the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in years. Lucas and Luna unpack what that actually means for the Federal Reserve's next move, digging into the details beneath the headline—from the drop in private payrolls to the steady unemployment rate at 4.1 percent. They explain why the Fe
Why the Fed Is Watching Softer Job Openings
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest JOLTS report showing job openings at 7.359 million in June, down from 7.537 million, and what that signals for the Federal Reserve. With the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent and the Fed funds rate holding steady at 3.63 percent, the hosts explore why a cooling labor market might not trigger immediate easing. They discuss the diver
How Warsh Navigates Fed Pressure as Inflation Cools
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the pressure mounting on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as inflation cools to multi-year lows while manufacturing surveys show price worries worse than the pandemic era. With the Fed on hold and the 10-year breakeven at 2.23 percent, they explore the tension between falling headline CPI and sticky core PCE, and what the ADP miss of just 44,000 privat
Why the Fed Watches Core PCE While CPI Cools
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but crucial divergence in the inflation data: headline CPI and the PCE price index are cooling, but core PCE — the Fed's preferred gauge — actually ticked up in June. With the Fed on hold and the ten-year breakeven rate drifting down to 2.27 percent, the hosts ask what the central bank is really looking at. Lucas walks through the
Why the Fed Is Stuck Between Falling Inflation and Manufacturing Angst
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a strange moment for the Federal Reserve: inflation has cooled to its lowest in years, but a new manufacturing survey shows price worries 'worse than pandemic era.' They unpack the latest CPI and core PCE numbers, the 1.5 percent GDP print, and what a divided Fed means for rate policy heading into fall. Plus, they explore why job openings
Why the Fed Is Watching China's Factory Slump
On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest China factory activity data and what a surprise contraction in July means for global inflation and the Federal Reserve's next move. With US core inflation at 3.3% and the Fed holding steady, how much does a slowdown in China's manufacturing matter for US price pressures? The hosts break down the transmission channels—from export
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening While the Fed Holds Firm
On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking market signal: the ten-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.74 percent while the two-year sits at 3.68, a steepening curve that usually suggests investors expect growth and inflation to pick up. But the Fed, led by Kevin Warsh, is holding rates steady at 3.63 percent, and core inflation is running at 3.3 percent. How do we squar
Why GDP Growth Slowed but Jobs Stay Strong
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the strange divergence in the latest US economic data. Real GDP growth dropped to an annualized 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 2.1%, yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% and payrolls kept adding jobs. They explore possible explanations, including labor hoarding and productivity shifts, and discuss what this puzzle means for the Fede
Bond Markets Expect Higher Inflation Despite Cooling CPI
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 2.26%, even as the latest CPI reading fell to 332.6. What does the bond market see that consumer prices aren't capturing? In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between market-based inflation expectations and official inflation data. With the Fed firmly on hold and the labor market still tight—unemployment at 4.2% and jobles
Why the Fed Is on Hold While Singapore Tightens
In a surprise move on July 27, Singapore's central bank tightened monetary policy, warning that rising oil prices could reignite inflation. But the Federal Reserve remains steadfast at 3.63%, even as the US economy shows real GDP growth of 2.1% annualized and unemployment at 4.2%. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed can afford to wait while other central banks act. They explore
How Kevin Warsh's Three Keywords Signal Fed Policy
Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has zeroed in on three specific phrases that market watchers use to decode the central bank's next move. On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna break down what 'patient,' 'data-dependent,' and 'balanced risks' really mean — and why Warsh's choice of words matters more than ever. With jobless claims at 187,000, GDP growth rebounding to 2.1%, and core PCE still st
How Jobless Claims Hit 187k and Yields Still Fell
Initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000, the lowest in decades, yet 10-year Treasury yields fell 1.2% over the same week. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between a red-hot labor market and a bond market betting on slower growth. They examine the latest breakeven inflation rate, which slipped to 2.21%, and ask whether the Fed's hold pattern makes sense when real-time data shows the economy
Why Core PCE Is Sticky While CPI Cools
Headline CPI fell in June, but the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE index—actually rose to 130.1 from 129.67, an annualized pace near 4 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the growing divergence between the two measures, explain why housing and health-insurance costs are keeping services inflation stubborn, and examine why the Fed is holding rates at 3.63 percent despite bond-market signals
The Inflation Divergence the Fed Can't Ignore
Episode 140 of The Macro Memo explores the puzzling divergence between the Consumer Price Index, which fell in June, and the Fed's preferred PCE measure, which is ticking up. Lucas and Luna break down the components driving the gap—healthcare prices, financial services, and energy—and discuss why the Fed pays more attention to PCE. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% and jobless claims at a stunnin
