The Rate Guy
The Rate Guy is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It offers an irreverent look at interest rates and current markets. The show focuses on how those forces affect the commercial real estate and multifamily industries. Episodes break down rate trends and market shifts for professionals in those sectors.
Episodes
Today's Fed Meeting Recap
On this special midweek edisode of The Rate Guy we unpack the first rate hike in 3 years and what it maens for you.
Top 10 Reasons To Hike This Week
On this episode of The Rate Guy JP starts with a heavily embellished story about our 5 week hiatus and then we discuss why the market has the odds of a hike this week at 90%! Then we finish with the top 10 (half serious) reasons they should hike this week. For those that want to read more - here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter. Link the the LA Business Journal article. We'll see you all
The Decision™
On this episode of The Rate Guy: a Kalshi cautionary tale, what it is about the Fed meeting that has JP on edge, the 10T level experts consider catastrophic, and the top three things you should be watching—not just for this meeting, but moving forward. For the deep dive into monetarism that JP references, check out last week's newsletter: Monetarism for Dummies
Big CPI Report Tuesday
We discuss this week's CPI report because we think it could be a big driver of interest rates not just for this month but really how the Market receives the Fed's reaction function to the inflation related to oil.
The Real Unemployment Rate is 4.6%
On this episode of The Rate Guy you get a story of JP wrestling with a bat (yes a real live bat), his thoughts on the market's frustration with Warsh and what the real unemployment rate is and why.
Hot Jobs Report Due on Thursday
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk inflation, GDP, Jobs and what's really killing caps right now.
Fed Meeting Recap
On this episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's FOMC meeting and cover any happenings, surprise statements and of course Warsh's tie color.
Our First Warsh Fed Meeting Wednesday
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about last week's jobs number, Warsh's first ever Fed meeting, what position are traders pouring into at a historic level and how a resolution in Iran affect the 10T.
What Would Cause The Fed To Hike This Year
On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a trip down memory lane. Revisiting similar economic times in history to build a framework for what the Fed might do this year. We take a look at GDP, Money Supply, Inflation, Oil...all of the key touchpoints and which of those we should be payint the most attention to.
What Brings Rates Back Down?
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what the Market is laser focused on right now and what needs to happen to bring relief to the 10T.
Headline Jobs Added 115k, But Lost 424k Full Time Positions
We're back baby and we're excited about it....well JP's not, but he's got no choice. Today we talk about inflation, Jobs, the new Fed chair, 10T, Caps, Raising interest rates....all of the things! Thanks for your patience with us during our haitus, we break down why during the first 4 minutes. See you next week!
Friday Was One of The Most Volatile Weeks On Record
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the extreme volatility of last week, what it means for rate caps, the 10T and what to be on the look out from the Fed in the upcoming weeks.
No, The Fed Wont Hike Because of Oil
The Ickiest Jobs Report in Five Years
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the economic impact of the war in Iran, a weak jobs report, and what it means for oil, inflation, and the timing of the next rate cut. The cushion the economy has relied on for the past few years may be gone, and the margin for error is getting much smaller.
Tariffs, Medals, and Stoats
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws some parallels between the winter olympics and happenings in the US Market. Gold, Silver, Bronze and Stoat are awarded. Big congrats to USA Men's and Women's Hockey Teams who took home Gold this Winter Olympics! Link to Newsletter to see graphs referenced.
CNBC Talking Heads Fall For The Job Headlines...Again
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the SaaSpocalypse, 3 key take aways from the Jobs Report, how (& why) we are in a disinflationary environment right now and how all of that will determine if the Fed cuts this year.
3 Things to Know About Kevin Warsh
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP breaks down the 3 things you absolutely need to know about Kevin Warsh being nominated as the new Fed Chair and can Thom Tillis block his nomination like he said he will.
Fed Meeting Recap
Miss the Fed meeting today? We've got you! We translate all the Fed-speak and highlight our favorite moments and key takeaways - like what advice J Powell has for the next Fed Chair.
Fed Meeting Wednesday
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what some of you may have forgotten...the Fed meeting is this week! We cover the Supreme Court's take on the Lisa Cook case, 10T behaviours, China "dumping" Treasurys and info about caps that our floating rate borrowers might be interested in. Here is the link for the Pensford Cap Pricer that we discussed. See you all Wednesday night for the FOMC recap!
DOJ Plans to Indict Powell
We know this is a little early to call, but this will be the most important episode of the year. So if you listen to nothing else, listen to this one. Shocking news came out late Sunday night. This has literally never happened since the existence of the Federal Reserve. The Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to Jero
J-Money's Last Rate Cut?
On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we examine today's Fed meeting, the dissents, the jobs realization, J Powell's press conference and what it all means for current market conditions and in 2026.
A Cut This Week But None Next Year?
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws a parallel between the Penn State and Fed search for their next leader. Then we jump into what to expect at this week's meeting and a quick look ahead to next year's rate expectations. We'll be back Wednesday for a recap of the Fed meeting. For those that are curious...here's the calendar reminder screenshot. (if I could insert a facepalm emoji here I wou
My Thanksgiving List - Markets Edition
On this episdoe of The Rate Guy, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, JP runs through a variety of things he's thankful for with his mix of sincerity and sarcasm that we all know and love. Check out the fancy Private Social Club that we talk about and visited in Atlanta, The Perlant, here. If you want to see Philly Elementary kids go off on Dallas player themed heavy bags (yeah, you read that right) cl
I Love the Smell of Capitalism in the Morning
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about JP's love of all things Texas (well, maybe not the lobster mac & cheese), dig into the latest private-sector jobs data, and break down where we see interest rates heading in 2026 — plus why the impact on the 10T looks completely binary.
Quick Fed Meeting Take Aways
On this special edition episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's Fed meeting and analyze Powell's surprising remarks and what to be on the look out for in the week ahead. See you on 11/10! Here is the link to JP's recap in the Pensford Newsletter.
The Fed Might Not Cut At All in 2026
On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA's "thorough investigation" didn't find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to c
What Pushes the 10T to 3.62%
On this epidode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down this Thursday's CPI release — why the market will probably react even though it's full of noise, what could drive the 10-year Treasury to 3.62%, and the one signal that could tell us the Fed won't cut rates at the next meeting.
The Fed Will Cut Even if the Govt is Still Shut Down
On this episode of The Rate Guy we answer the question we've gotten a lot this week..."If the Federal government is still shut down on Oct. 29, will the Fed meet and make a decision about rates?" We answer that and many more about how Fed cuts will effect the 10 year treasury and why the US is still the world's mattress.
Introducing the PLS…Pensford Labor Statistics!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen. For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter. And to see what JP's been up to in his spare time check ou
The Aftermath of the Fed Meeting
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the aftermath of the Fed Meeting and break down how we think it will affect markets and how people are borrowing.
7 Fed Members Thought They Wouldn't Be Cutting This Week
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed's credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren't) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026. We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so important. As promised here is the Cap/Floor Pricer from
Friday's Jobs Report Means The Fed is Already Behind the Curve
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss jobs and the shocking data that came out last week and how that (and a few other factors) will influence the Fed with their decision on cutting rate next week.
The Fed's Real Focus
On this episode of The Rate Guy we urge you to forget CPI—the Fed's watching jobs. Unemployment at 4.2% isn't the good news it looks like. We explain r*, clear up the natural vs. neutral rate confusion, and connect the dots from D.C.'s deficit and the 10 Yr Treasury.
Special Jackson Hole Edition
On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack J Money's message from the podium at Jackson Hole. What surprised us, what didn't and what needs to happen (or not happen) in order to start cutting rates.
Revision Chickens Come Home to Roost
This week on The Rate Guy, we talk about the wild aftermath of Friday's shocking jobs report—highlighting one of the biggest downward revisions since April 2020. We break down what really happened, why Trump fired the Commissioner of the BLS, and what that move signals for the Fed and future data credibility. We also unpack the growing odds of a rate cut in September, what to watch for in the sear
Put Your Hard Hats On, It's Going to be a Crazy Week
We take one week off and everything goes haywire. What in the world?! This week on The Rate Guy, we're unpacking the chaos of last week, previewing a data-heavy week ahead, and digging into how markets and rates might respond. Also, a heartfelt RIP to the icons we lost. Our childhood nostalgia definitely took a hit.
Bond Buying Baby
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's inflation data, GDP, the effect of the Big Beautiful Bill on the 10T and could QE be an option to cutting rates.
The Big Beautiful Job Market
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about the Job data and why it's skewed - per usual. We also discuss when and why the next rate cut may come, plus where the 10T will be at the end of 2025. Thoughts and prayers to our friends in Texas and the victims of the devistating flood. Wishing you the strength as you navigate really tough territory.
Wall Street Meet Socialism
On this episod of The Rate Guy we discuss Jobs, Inflation, GDP and what options traders are flocking to at the moment and why.
The Uncertainty Bends Continue
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025.
What The Fed Will Do This Week (and The Next 12 Months)
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months.
Jobs, Schmobs
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest jobs report. We unpack what the numbers really signal, what that means for inflation, and why the Fed isn't reaching for the rate cut lever just yet. Plus, you know we have to talk about what went down this past week; a Twitter showdown for the ages. Buckle up.
The Tail That Wagged The Dog
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the mini-revolt happening at the long end of the curve, how tariffs are effecting the deficit and how sometimes the best cure for inflation is inflation.
The Lingering Effects of Trust Issues
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about consumer sentiment of the top 10%, inflation's current status and how tarrifs are affecting the economy as a whole.
Fed Meeting Primer
On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack all of the data from last week; Inflation, GPD, Jobs. And cautiously break down what to expect at this week's Fed meeting. The uncertainty bends are proving to be true as the market has a 50/50 chance of a cut at June's meeting....flip a coin? We also talk tariffs since we've never seen a tariff shock like this before, making it even more unpredictable. M
Trump Blink Counter : 2 and Special Guest Interview with J Mo
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the back and forth around Jerome Powell's fate and the impact that has had on the Market. After that we have a special interview with the great friend and even better sport, Jon Morris aka JMo. We hear his thoughts on career, current markets and where our industry is headed.
WTF is a Basis Trade Unwind?
On this episode of The Rate Guys we talk about how last week the 10 Year Treasury spiked, the dollar slipped, and headlines claim the world is ditching the U.S. JP breaks down what really happened — and why it's probably not about deficits or de-dollarization. From CPI cooling to basis swap unwinds, it was one of the wildest weeks of JP's career. He explains the chaos, calls out the hype, and remi
Other Than That, How Was the Play Mrs. Lincoln?
This week's episode of The Rate Guy is dedicated to tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Trying to make sense of what they'll do to interest rates, what is keeping us up about them and the 2 things that will make the Fed start cutting rates in June.
The Uncertainty Bends
This week's episode explores The Uncertainty Bends™—a not-so-scientific condition where markets, like vacationers, decompress too fast and suffer the consequences. With consumer confidence plunging, discretionary spending slowing, and the Fed stuck between inflation and recession fears, signs point to growing instability. We unpack: The latest on interest rates and consumer behavior Why sentim
Is the Labor Market the Frog in the Boiling Pot of Water?
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk tariffs, recession, GDP and of course Jobs, and why the number may be scarier that we think. Here is the SOS Recession Indicator that JP references as well as the sweet cardboard cut out of Saquon leaping backwards over J. Powell! Thanks Craig!
DOGE Impact on NFP and the UR
What if the Fed's inflation target was a range of 2%-3% instead of a hard 2%? Would the market be as anxious? Core PCE is at 2.6%—inflation may not be fully defeated, but it's contained enough for the Fed to shift focus. Meanwhile, money supply is rising, but without velocity, it's just sitting on the sidelines. The real driver of inflation? Money changing hands—something we'll be watching closely
59 Reasons the T10 Will Fall to 4%
On this episode of The Rate Guy we lay out two lists. The first is our Top 10 favorite things from going to the Super Bowl. And then 59 reasons why the 10 Yr Treasury will fall to 4%. All of the reasons may or may not be directly related, but you can be the judge of that!
If Markets Played in The Superbowl
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown—and why it's a brutal matchup for the Birds. But we also talk about the games market parallels! Mahomes = Inflation. Refs = Tariffs. Hurts = GDP. Jake Elliott = The 10-Year Treasury. What does it all mean for the game and the economy? Tune in for Super Bowl takes, market insights, and just the right amount of Philly bias. G
DJT, Jerry Jones, and The Real JP Walk Into a Bar...
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about 47's effect on rates, what to expect at this week's Fed meeting and of course a little bit of playoff football. This one's short and sweet because JP's is just too hype for the Eagles game. Go Birds!
No, the Fed is Not Hiking This Year
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation data and an interest rate outlook for 2025.
Rate Cuts Aren't Causing a Surge
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk the latest jobs report, challenging the narrative that the economy is overheating. We also break down this week's inflation data and what it could mean moving forward. We also explore a possible rebuilding strategy for LA. Southern California is like a second home to us, and we're holding LA, its residents, our friends and customers close in our thoughts an
Lead Pipe Lock Guarantees for 2025
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP makes his lead pipe lock guarantees for 2025. We also take a look at his 2024 forecast and analyze what he got right and what was a big miss. Thanks for listening this year! We'll see you in 2025 as we kick off our 5th season. Happy New Year!
'Twas the Night Before FOMC
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and recite JP's Interest Rate spin on 'Twas The Night Before Christmas. JP will send out a newsletter Wednesday with his analysis of the meeting. If you'd like to recieve that subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter here.
The Economy Lost 355k Jobs Last Month
On this episode of The Rate Guys we discuss the Jobs Report and.how it will affect the Fed Meeting. Also, what data point can you not trust right now. And we of course had to touch on the heartbreak of the Penn State loss. So if you want to skip the football, fast forward to about the 3:45 mark. For those that want to check out the the CME Fed Match link that JP discussed. Here you go!
DAYzed And Confused
On this episode of The Rate Guy it's all about inflation, jobs and how the data this week may impact the Fed's decision to cut or not at this month's meeting.
I Can Give You the Rate or the Timeline, But Not Both at Once
On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw a parallel between our family's driving mishaps and the Fed's approach to monetary policy. With inflation cooling and jobs slowing, the Fed is cautiously navigating an economic intersection, but are they pressing the brakes too hard—or not enough? Tune in to hear what's ahead for rates.
Will Deficits Push the T10 to 7%?
This week on The Rate Guy, we explore whether deficits could push the 10-Year Treasury to 7% and why Fed policy, not just debt, drives long-term yields
Just How Inflationary Could Tariffs Be?
Not much happened last week...just an Election and a Fed meeting. On this episode of The Rate Guy we cover both of those and talk tariffs, their potential inflation impact, projected cuts in 2025 and whether McConnell might be Trump's biggest obstacle.
Gaslighting Doesn't Exist. You just Made It Up Because You're Crazy.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the frustration of Penn State football and draw parallels to the economy. Just like Penn State's repeated mistakes, the labor market shows signs of weakness despite misleading headlines. We dive into the latest disappointing jobs report, rising unemployment, and the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Plus, we look ahead to a potentially volatile wee
The Fed is Cutting and the T10 is Surging?
We're baaaaack! On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we can't take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're back for a while, and things will (hopefully) settle down. Tune in as we break down Core PCE, GDP forecasts, and what to expect from the next jobs repor
The Fed is Still Cutting in November
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how to view the latest Jobs print and how it won't impact the Fed's move in November. FYI the graph is full of orange representing the Unexplained Employment.(not red as Sarah remembered on the podcast) To view in the Pensford newsletter click here.
JMo Unmasked
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest economic data, including inflation, jobs reports, GDP. GPI, and why the Fed might be boxed in on rate cuts. Tune in for all the insights and our take on what's next. Plus, JMo finally conceded defeat on our inflation bet, and we unveil his identity!
The Fed Should Cut 50bps This Week, but They Won't
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're keeping it short and sweet. We're prepping for Wednesday's rate cut decision and breaking down 7 reasons why the Fed won't go for a 50bps cut, despite market hopes. We'll also touch on what you might want to do with caps ahead of the meeting. Here is the link to register for the Q3 Interest Rate Webinar that you won't want to miss! Topics of Discussion Regis
The Fed Should Cut to 3.25%
In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss why cutting rates to 3.25% might be the right move for the Fed. Fed Chair Powell recently stated at Jackson Hole, "We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions," which has huge implications for future rate cuts. With job gains averaging just 116k per month, we break down why the benchmark for job growth is 100k—not zero—and how th
The Fed Is Cutting No Matter What NFP Says
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the latest inflation data, why the Fed will cut rates, regardless of what Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report reveals and what may influence a 50bps cut instead of 25bps. We also address concerns about the economy heating up again when the Fed starts cutting and why that's not going to happen. Link to the CNBC article about fake jobs.
The Fed Might Cut 50bps Next Month
Football season is back, and so is JP's trash talk! In this episode of The Rate Guy, we touch on some friendly (or not-so-friendly) college football banter and dive into the real game: Fed policy moves. With Powell signaling a rate cut next month and the labor market's true strength under scrutiny, we break down what this means for the economy. We'll also explore how misleading job data could be s
I'm Getting to Jackson Hole One Way or Another!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's Jackson Hole meeting where the theme is "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy." We talk about some of the things they might touch on and how the market may react. We also discuss the consumer spending situation; why it's not as rosy as the number suggests and why these red flags have not yet caused a more signific
The Interest Rate Olympics
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we get a little creative and compare Olympic athletes to players in the Interest Rate game. On the heels of a couple data heavy weeks, we hope this is a breathe of fresh air for you all. And you may be asking, there's a connection between the Australian "break dancer" and interest rates!? Yep, there sure is!
On A Long Enough Timeline, JP Is Always Right
In this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast, we dive into the concept of the "JP Rule"—the idea that, given enough time, JP is always right—and compare it to the established Sahm and Taylor economic rules. We also cover one of the most significant economic weeks in recent memory, possibly since the Fed began hiking rates. There's a lot to discuss this week, including the potential number of rate cuts
Fed Meeting Primer and JMo Update
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's upcoming Fed meeting, jobs report and what impact those may have on rates and cap pricing. JP also gives an update on the JMo wager!
Fed Funds Should Be At 4%
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on interest rates. We'll cover market updates, dive into recent Fed speeches and we'll continue our Cap conversation exploring cap pricing scenarios and the effects of market volatility. The good article referenced was by WSJ journalist Greg Ip link here and indicated the Fed should begin cutting
Cap Pricing As The Fed Cuts
On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into last week's CPI report, how it may impact rate trajectory, how cap prices may behave in a falling rate environment and what strategies you should be considering for your upcoming caps.
Jobs Market Hotter Than Orlando Pavement in July
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the "HOT" jobs data, the upcoming inflation data, Powell's testimony and the liklihood of Fed cuts this year. As always you can read the Pensford Newsletter here.
The Data Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we dig a little deeper into the recent Jobs Report and discuss the underlying data that should be getting attention, CPI, the ECB cutting and how all of that may affect this week's Fed meeting.
The Fed's Seesaw Dilemma
On this episode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager tracker—are we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer look at the economic balancing act the Fed is faced
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