The Strength In Numbers Podcast with G. Elliott Morris
An independent, data-driven podcast focused on politics, public opinion polling, and elections. It is hosted by author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris. The show offers analysis grounded in data rather than partisan commentary. More information can be found at gelliottmorris.com.
Episodes
The case for and against the polls
Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com.On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir explain why polls could underestimate either the Democrats or the Republicans this November. You can make a good case either way.Plus, will Democrats win a majority of governors’ mansions for the first time since 2009?This video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you
Paul Krugman, Elliott Morris, and David Nir on the blue wave
This is an upload of a guest appearance on Paul Krugman’s Substack, recorded September 30, 2026.Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com.Paul Krugman had David Nir, who co-hosts the SIN podcast with me, and me on his weekly interview show this Thursday, and the video is out this morning. Paul has graciously agreed to let us repost the video interview and transcript here. In this recording, we talk a
How much worse can things get for the GOP?
Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com.On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott Morris and David Nir walk through the current electoral state of play just over one month out from the 2026 midterm elections.This video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you value this podcast and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Num
Is this what a "blue wave" feels like?
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott Morris and David Nir dig into the latest batch of good news for Democrats: an all-time low for Trump's approval rating in our monthly Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll; a record Democratic lead on the generic ballot; and a flurry of Senate polls showing the party competitive in states as red as Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas. We ask if this is wh
The blue wave is getting bigger
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David dig into Elliott’s newsletter piece arguing the conventional wisdom on polling error might have it backwards this cycle — that the polls could be understating Democratic support, not overstating it, as the polls did in 2020 and 2024. They break down two structural reasons why that could be happening. Then, the podcast closes with a stat
Republicans who think "Trumpapalooza" will work misunderstand why Trump won in 2024
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David react to the first night of “Trumpapalooza,” the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, and explain why its proponents misunderstand what low-turnout Republican voters actually want. We also dig into Trump’s promise to send every adult American a $5,000 check if the GOP keeps Congress. Plus, we walk through the standards The Downballo
Donald Trump is acting like he *wants* to lose the midterms
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott is reunited with David (who is back from a short break to recover from knee surgery) to discuss how Trump continues to alienate voters ahead of the midterms. Polls also show more Republicans than ever are saying they regret voting for Trump in 2024 — and GOP candidates for the House and Senate are scrubbing mentions of the president from their ca
Deep Dive episode: Everything you wanted to know about prediction markets, with Rajiv Sethi
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott is joined by Rajiv Sethi , professor of economics at Barnard College, Columbia University, and author of the Substack Imperfect Information (currently on hiatus as he finishes a forthcoming book), for a deep dive into prediction markets. We talk about how they work, which types of markets work better than others, whether they beat statistical mod
A troubling trend of fake polls and lying pollsters, with FiftyPlusOne’s Mary Radcliffe
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott is joined by Mary Radcliffe, head of research at FiftyPlusOne, to dig into a truly wild week in polling. This week truly had it all: one “pollster” that turned out to be entirely fictional, a real pollster that admitted to reassigning respondents’ vote choices, and two firms that our investigation found were doing polls for campaigns but passing
Can we trust the polls in 2026?
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David dig into why the Wisconsin governor’s primary polls overestimated Francesca Hong by 20 points, why the “the polls are overestimating the left” narrative falls apart pretty quickly (look at Minnesota), and why late primaries are bad for democracy (and frustrating for election forecasters).Here are the big takeaways:* Hong’s miss is a 90t
Deep Dive episode: What if our leaders are actually more responsive to public opinion than we think?
On this week’s Deep Dive episode of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott sits down with Peter Enns — Cornell University political scientist, political methodologist, and co-founder of the polling firm Verasight — to talk through a huge new paper he has published, "How a Seemingly Innocuous and Intuitive Methodological Choice Confused a Generation of Research on Policy Responsiveness." We get i
Why the polls missed in Michigan — and why Democrats are favored to flip the House and Senate
On this week's Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David dig into why the Michigan Senate primary polls may have missed so badly, why the electability discourse about Abdul El-Sayed misses the mark, and how the new FiftyPlusOne election forecast that gives Democrats an 87% chance in the House and a 54% chance in the Senate actually works.Here are the big takeaways:* Michigan’s primary polls m
What's behind Trump's new all-time approval low? (The podcast returns!)
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast — the first live episode back from Elliott’s paternity leave! — Elliott and David break down Donald Trump’s new all-time-low approval rating, what gas prices and the war in Iran have done to it, and take a look at The Downballot’s newly updated hexagonal map of all 435 congressional districts.Here are the big takeaways:* Trump just hit another all-time ap
Deep Dive episode: Ben Wikler has a plan to save democracy
On this week’s Deep Dive episode of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott sits down with Ben Wikler, former chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, 2025 candidate for DNC chair, and author of the new book This Is the Plan: How to End America’s Meltdown and Save Democracy. We have a wide-ranging conversation that includes such topics as: why no message would have saved Democrats in 2024, how
A reminder: Very few people support Donald Trump's presidency
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast — the last live episode before Elliott heads off on paternity leave — Elliott and David break down just how historically unpopular Donald Trump has become and dig into the surging public appetite for age limits on members of Congress, the presidency, and the Supreme Court.Here are the big takeaways:* Nobody likes Trump, and gas prices are only part of the
Deep Dive episode: Democracy 2.0, with Lee Drutman
In this Deep Dive episode of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott sits down with Lee Drutman, senior fellow at the New America Foundation and author of Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multiparty Representation in America, to talk about whether the way out of America’s escalating gerrymandering war isn’t legislation for fairer maps or redistricting commissions, but maybe doing aw
America's new redistricting doom loop
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David briefly revisit Elliott’s hypotheses on why economic vibes are still so sour before turning to the alarming speed at which Republican-led states are moving to redraw their congressional maps in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Callais decision last week.Here are the big takeaways:* The economic vibes may not be “normal” again until 2029
Deep Dive episode: Political scientists were right about Trump
Strength In Numbers is on a short summer break while Elliott takes paternity leave with his new baby. This deep dive episode was recorded in early May, and things may have changed since we recorded it.In this Deep Dive episode of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott sits down with Seth Masket, political scientist at the University of Denver and author of the Smotus Report Substack, to swap int
What the SCOTUS VRA decision means for the midterms — and the future
On this week's Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David unpack the Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais and explain what it means for the midterms and beyond. Then Elliott pushes back on a trendy take that Democrats' "only" 7–8 point generic ballot lead, despite Trump's –22 net approval, proves the party is fundamentally misaligned with voters on cultural issues. Here are the big
Voters rate the Democrats poorly — but are voting for them anyway
In this week’s first-ever live, in-person recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast — at the America Votes State Summit in Washington, D.C. — G. Elliott Morris and David Nir debut exclusive new polling on the midterms, dig into what voters actually dislike about the Democratic Party, and explain why none of this changes the trajectory of a brutal midterm for Republicans (even though it could ma
The electoral beatings will continue until morale improves
We have some very exciting news: Next week, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir will record the Strength In Numbers podcast live and in-person in Washington, DC—and we’d love it if you’d join us!Our session will take place on Thursday, April 23, at 11:15 AM at the America Votes Summit, which is being held at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center (the address and directions can be found here).Elli
Trump is underwater in every competitive House and Senate seat
In this week’s live recording of the Strength in Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir cover the latest on the Iran ceasefire, Tuesday’s elections in Wisconsin, and Elliott’s new statistical model estimating Trump’s approval rating in every congressional district and state in the country.Here are the big takeaways:* Wisconsin was a wipeout, and the swing was especially large in rural co
Deep Dive episode: Voters say they want "somebody that's for us"
In this first special deep dive episode of the Strength in Numbers podcast, Elliott sits down with Joy Wilke, senior director of polling at BlueLabs, to discuss a set of focus groups she conducted in Michigan among independent, politically disengaged Americans — the exact kind of affordability voters who swung toward Trump in 2024, and who Elliott has been writing about over the last year. BlueLab
Trump hits record polling lows over Iran, economic anxiety
In this week’s live recording of the Strength in Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, dig into a news-packed week — from the Supreme Court’s oral arguments in the birthright citizenship case and Donald Trump’s televised address about the war in Iran on Wednesday to the firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi and the first anniversary of Trump’s “Liberation Da
Why we trust real polls over prediction markets
In this week’s live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talk about prediction markets and AI “polls” — the new hot crazes in political and election reporting. Elliott and David take a look at the accuracy of each source and compare them against traditional polls.Here are the big takeaways:* Prediction markets have real structu
Trump is in trouble with his base
In this week’s live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot (and back from a week off!), talk about new polling showing Trump holding his MAGA base on the war in Iran—but losing ground overall.Trump’s support has badly decayed among soft partisans, lower-income whites, and Hispanic voters — the groups that swung most sharply toward
Why Trump hasn't received a "rally around the flag" approval bump for the Iran war
In this week’s live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott flies solo (David’s on vacation — he’ll be back next week) for a special “chart-a-rama” episode breaking down the “rally around the flag” effect in presidential approval polls, and why Trump isn’t getting one. Elliott also covers a bad use of polling in a Washington Post article about the GOP’s midterm prospects.Here are the
What the polls say about Trump's war against Iran
In this week's live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talked Iran war polling, the chaos of the Texas Senate primaries, and Trump's cratering approval numbers — including a record we really didn't expect to hit this early. Here are the big takeaways:* The Iran war is historically unpopular — and it’s only going to get worse.
Who’s really leading in the Texas Senate primaries?
In the newest live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talk about the Texas Senate primaries, what the latest Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll says about Trump’s approval, and where the public stands on various proposed structural reforms to the Supreme Court, presidency, and U.S. Senate.We cover:* The Texas Senate primaries are wide
Democrats should think out of the box for how to win in 2028
In the newest live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talk about the latest news in elections, politics, and polling.We cover:* “Anti-system” voters explain Trump’s wins better than left-right ideology. A recent study of polling data from the American National Election Study shows frustration with government and elites predicted whethe
How "normie" voters feel about Trump now
In this latest episode of the Strength In Numbers live podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talk about the latest news in elections, politics, and polling.We cover:* Trump is losing the voters who elected him. New Strength In Numbers/Verasight data shows low-information voters — about 27% of the electorate — have swung from Trump +11 in 2024 to disapproval by 13 points. The
Yes, Democrats should run on ICE
In this latest episode of the Strength In Numbers live podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, have a wide-ranging discussion of the 2026 political environment. We talk about:* A Democratic shockwave in Texas. Democrats flipped a Texas State Senate seat in a district that Trump won by 17 points in 2024. We explain why turnout alone can’t account for the massive swing.* Is Texa
The Texas special election and 2026 political environment
(This note is from Elliott). Thanks to my friend Michael Podhorzer of the Weekend Reading Substack for having me on his show to talk about politics and electoral strategy ahead of 2026.We cover:* Taylor Rehmet’s massive upset win in Texas’s 9th Senate District last Saturday* How views about immigration have changed since January 2025* Where the “median voter theorem” falls shortPlus: What independ
Trump’s terrible polls, one year in
In this conversation, Elliott is joined by David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, to take stock of Donald Trump’s polling numbers as he passes one year in office. We dig into the fresh January Strength In Numbers/Verasight polling data, talk about Elliott’s new project mapping public opinion at the local level, check in on Democratic strategy regarding immigration and immigration enforcement, and
Podcast with Paul Krugman: What can the 2025 elections tell us about 2026?
Happy Saturday, readers,I was delighted to sit down again with Paul Krugman this past Thursday to talk through the 2025 elections and what the results actually tell us. We cover the toplines — Democrats over-performed across Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and elsewhere — and then dig into the nitty gritty of which groups swung the most, and what it all means for 2026.Here are a few s
I talk about my Friday column with Ryan Lizza
ReadersRyan Lizza, the independent journalist formerly of CNN and POLITICO, asked me to do an interview with him on Friday about my new column on the outcome of Tuesday’s elections. In this conversation I make several bold claims, such as:* Trump is unpopular and that’s why Republicans lost on Tuesday* If Trump continues to be unpopular, Republicans will struggle in the 2026 midterms* Realignments
Will Democrats sweep Virginia's 2025 elections?
State of play + recent eventsTwo weeks ago, if you had asked me who was going to win the elections in Virginia this November, I would have confidently said Democrats are likely to sweep races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and expand their majority in the House of Delegates. The state usually votes against the party of the president, and Democrats are up big in the polls. Eas
Political Trends of 2025
I joined my friend and ex-538’er Perry Bacon Jr and Amanda Litman, the founder of Run For Something, for a conversation on politics in 2025 and what the Democrats need to do to rebuild the party post-Trump. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
Interview with Ryan Lizza about our independent political polling
Here’s a quick Friday afternoon post.Ryan Lizza (and his cute new puppy) interviewed me today about our new Strength In Numbers poll this week — and about all the other great work the community here is both supporting and, increasingly, participating in.We talk about Trump, the LA and No Kings Day protests, immigration, Democratic strategy, polling in the age of AI, and more.Have a happy weekend!
Interview with Michael Podhorzer about a data-driven approach to covering Trump
Dear readers,In case you missed it, Mike Podhorzer and I did a video conversation together on June 2. We talked about:* My new piece on Trump’s popularity* How the media uses polling* Why it pays to approach public opinion with nuance and uncertainty* Why traditional ad-supported media is not set up to incentivize factual discourse when it conflicts with values of partisan fairness;* and moreMike
Live with David Nir to chat about Strength In Numbers
I was very kindly joined by David Nir of The Downballot on Tuesday to talk about the (successful, IMO!) launch of Strength In Numbers this week, and give a sneak peek at our first poll publishing tomorrow (Wednesday, May 14).The first few minutes will be familiar to readers because we are giving a wider audience on the Substack App the low-down on what we do here at Strength In Numbers. But the re
A conversation about Donald Trump’s poll numbers with Chris Cillizza
This is just a quick post to draw your attention to two things:First, I’ve just uploaded an initial release of my index of economic growth to the Strength In Numbers data portal. Trump’s approval rating — now at net -6 — is also updated there. I plan to make revisions to the model powering the economic index, which I’ve released publicly online, and to very soon incorporate it into a Cost Of Rulin
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