Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts
The Hammer Betting Network 456 episodes Nov 9, 2026
Circles Off is a sports betting podcast from The Hammer Betting Network. It offers educational and high-quality sports betting content across multiple divisions. The feed includes the flagship Circles Off show hosted by Rob Pizzola, along with Circle Back, which covers the latest from Gambling Twitter. Listeners can follow the feed for ongoing sports betting content and visit The Hammer website for more.
Episodes
LeBron James Sends Cease and Desist To AI Sports Betting App | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
LeBron James is going after an AI sports betting app, and the cease and desist letter raises a question the industry hasn't answered yet: how much of a famous name can a betting product borrow before it crosses a line? Then French police are investigating a series of bets that predicted the exact order of the top five finishers in last month's Ballon d'Or, which puts insider trading and prediction
The Right Way To Use AI For NBA Betting Models | Off Script | Presented by ProphetX
How AI is helping sharp NBA bettors connect their models and find more plays than ever. After a full offseason working with AI, Kirk Evans breaks down how his props, futures and awards screens, sides and totals, and WNBA series sims now feed each other, why he can act on smaller edges with more confidence, and why you should never let AI make its own decisions inside a betting model. Then, Kirk ex
Sportsbooks Make Huge Mistakes.. If You Know Where to Click | Presented by ProphetX
How do pro bettors find their biggest edges, and what do they do differently once they have one? Pro Sports Bettor and Trader Chris "Flup" Dierkes breaks down how he got paid at 30-1 on a futures price closer to 10-1, then found correlated parlays priced as if every leg were independent. He explains why he spammed it all season without getting banned, the masking mistakes he'd fix today, how throw
Never Follow Betting Advice Like This... | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Would you lay the Cowboys at -200 after they closed -340 against the Cardinals? We break down a viral take on heavy favorites, what professional bettors actually do when the price gets that steep, and why it's the kind of betting advice you should never follow. We also react to NFL Week 8, get into Saquon Barkley selling his stake in a prediction market, and run through the rest of the weekend: F1
How a Pro Finds Edges in Same Game Parlays (No Model Required) | Off Script | Presented by ProphetX
Why is right now the golden age of same game parlays? Professional bettor and trader Rishi breaks down how he finds correlated outcomes with nothing but game knowledge and no model, why prices on prediction markets are beating what he sees at sportsbooks, and what the new NBA prop unders mean for his approach. Plus, the Thursday Night Football position he took when Christian Watson went to the hos
The NASCAR Road Course Edge That The Bookies Missed | Presented by ProphetX
China breaks down a NASCAR edge from a time when betting meant calling in plays on a recorded line and almost nobody had an odds screen. It was a loophole built on how one bookie priced the races, and it turned into one of the best spots of his betting career.
In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, recorded at BetBash, Jacob Gramegna sits down with China to talk about what betting looked like
Can You Middle NFL Games and Win Long Term? | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
One of the most shocking weeks of NFL survivor carnage, led by the Texans' overtime loss to the Giants, plus NFL Week 7 reactions and the rest of the weekend recap, including the World Series Game 2 check swing that may have been the wrong call. We react to Raheem Palmer's take on middling NFL games and whether risking 10 cents to win 2 dollars is worth it, go through your comments from last week'
Find One Edge, Bet It Everywhere: A Pro NBA Bettor's Approach | Off Script | Presented by ProphetX
Peanut breaks down how he rebuilt his NBA player prop model from the ground up into an automated dashboard, what changed from the old manual process, and how he decides which assumptions to adjust when a player's role or shot profile changes. He also explains the futures and awards model he's building, how to account for voter behavior, and the early season question every NBA bettor faces: how muc
Watch This Before You Start Betting NBA Same Game Parlays | Presented by ProphetX
Most same game parlays lose because bettors stack two good legs that have nothing to do with each other. In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, full time NBA bettor Calvin breaks down the same game parlay that paid +4000 when some sportsbooks priced a rookie center's blocks and double double as if they were unrelated, and shows how to find correlation the market hasn't accounted for.
Calvin wa
$513,333 Up in Smoke: Grandissimo Entry Misses Deadline | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
A Grandissimo entry worth an estimated $513,333 never got its Week 6 pick in, and the player says his proxy forgot to submit it. That left 14 entries chasing the $7.7 million winner-take-all prize, and then the Rams lost to the Cardinals and the Colts fell to the Titans, wiping out more than half of the Survivor field. Over 1,600 of 2,908 entries were gone in a single Sunday.
We also ask whethe
NBA Minutes and Rotations: How a Pro Finds Week 1 Edges | Off Script | Presented by ProphetX
How does a professional NBA bettor get ready for opening week? Pips NBA breaks down how he gathers information from the 30 teams in 30 days series and preseason film, turns it into minutes and rotation projections, and focuses on the teams that changed the most, where he thinks sportsbooks are most likely to be wrong early in the season. He also explains how matchups, defensive schemes and coverag
Should You Fade Big Line Moves? I Tested 6 Years of Data | Presented by ProphetX
Beating the closing line is the best long-run sign you're betting well, but a lot of what gets called CLV isn't, and even great numbers lose all the time. I used years of NFL and college football line data to show what CLV actually measures, whether the market really gets sharper as kickoff gets closer, and whether you should fade or follow big line moves.
Line data: Betstamp (Rob is a co-owner
How Sharp Bettors Actually Use AI For Betting | Presented by ProphetX
Everyone says AI can help you win at sports betting, but there's a right way and a wrong way to use it. We cover why more context beats a better prompt, why you should always check the steps behind an answer, and how to test a betting idea before you risk anything. Plus, the NFL's latest push on prediction markets at the Supreme Court, viewer questions from our most-watched AI video, and this week
A Simple SGP Edge Every Bettor Should Be Looking For | Presented by ProphetX
Sharp bettor Thon Misser breaks down the MLB same game parlay angle that kickstarted his betting career: a pricing bug that turned round number totals into a free half run. He explains how adding any second leg to an over 6 moved the price to over 6.5, why he paired it with an under on triples from hitters who almost never get one, how it played out until a couple of unlucky days and a burned acco
Wembanyama Just Took A Huge Stand Against Prediction Markets | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Victor Wembanyama put his foot down this week, declaring he will never endorse a prediction market or sportsbook. That bold stance opens up a massive conversation about where the line should be drawn when athletes take those exact deals. From there, we jump into a wild NFL Week 4, unpacking the Patriots shocking the Bills and what Lamar Jackson's ankle injury means moving forward. We also react to
How I Think About Betting Trends (This One Surprised Me) | Presented by ProphetX
Teams playing on Thursday after a Sunday overtime game are 7-29 against the spread since 2000. I’m not a trends guy, so here’s exactly how I work through a stat like this, step by step: checking how it’s counted, finding the right comparison, looking past the win-loss record, testing the explanation, and asking whether the market’s already on it. This one held up better than most. Here’s why you s
Ohio Just Dealt Prediction Markets A Massive Blow | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
NFL Week 3 delivered chaos, the Steelers upset the 2-0 Bengals in Pittsburgh, Josh Allen and the Bills survived five turnovers to beat the Chargers, and Drake Maye's turnover problems continued in New England. Over in golf, Team USA pulled off a historic comeback at the Presidents Cup, erasing a four-point deficit to win 17-13 at Medinah for their 11th straight title. Plus reaction to the MLB regu
How Sharp Bettors Build NBA Season Simulators | Off Script | Presented by ProphetX
Thon Misser joins Off Script to break down the NBA season simulator he's been rebuilding this offseason, how it prices different tiers of players, and what changes after a summer that saw the Raptors add Kawhi Leonard and the Sixers bring in LeBron James. From there the conversation moves into the latest push to bring margin trading to prediction markets and what that means for how those markets g
Pro Trader Explains The Truth Behind Prediction Market Makers | Presented by ProphetX
Can sharps actually beat a prediction market maker? Chris "Flup" Dierkes breaks down what market makers really do, why new exchanges need in-house liquidity, how auto-movers and traders manage directional risk when the flow hits one side, and what the CFTC's proposed bona fide market making rules could mean for the role. He also takes on the biggest misconceptions, including whether market makers
NFL Week 2 • Sportsbook AI Targets Losers • +EV Is Overrated? | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
NFL Week 2 sports betting reaction gets broken down live on Circle Back, alongside a New York Times report alleging a sportsbook used an AI model to score customers by expected losses and aim bonuses and free bets at them, which the sportsbook disputes. Is +EV overrated? We debate expected value betting and whether the hype matches the results. We also react to Vanderbilt vs NC State and what's be
Inside A Pro Bettor's CFP Simulator: Where Humans Still Win | Off Script | Presented by ProphetX
A College Football Playoff simulator reveals the real tension in sports betting: when do you trust an algorithm's clean number, and when does a sharp bettor's read on one isolated spot beat the model? Shipper joins Jacob Gramegna for the very first episode of Off Script to break down algorithmic decision-making versus human intuition using live betting, prediction markets, and expected value examp
Pro Sports Bettor Breaks Down The CFTC's Market Making Proposal | Presented by ProphetX
The CFTC has proposed new rules that could reshape how market making works across prediction market platforms, from fee treatment for in-house market makers to limits on the positions they're allowed to take. The proposal touches everything from single-market liquidity to how combos and RFQs get priced, and depending on how it's implemented, it could change who's able to compete as a market maker
Week 1 Fallout • NFL Concedes To PMs • Sydney Sweeney | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
The NFL, under Commissioner Roger Goodell, has taken a major step in its evolving relationship with prediction markets, and the crew breaks down what it means for sports betting going forward. Week 1 of the NFL season brought plenty of storylines, including a reality check for the Los Angeles Rams following their 27-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and a betting-adjacent ad campaign featuring Sy
Inside The $240M LeBron Market: What Was Really Happening | Presented by ProphetX
The LeBron James next-team market became the second-largest market prediction platforms have ever seen, trailing only the World Cup, with over $240 million traded. Peanut, aka Peanut Bettor on Twitter, joins Circles Off to break down how a market this size actually moves — why $500,000 walls formed around teams like Miami and Minnesota, and how a trader decides whether to jump a wall or wait it ou
The Motivation Angle That Made Bettors Rich (Then Died) | Presented by ProphetX
Do quants ignore motivation? I tested the most famous motivation angles in football, revenge games and blowout bounce backs, against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. One of them was legitimately profitable. Then the market found it. This is the full lifecycle of a betting edge, tested live against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines.
🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction M
The Tennis Edge Sportsbooks Still Aren't Pricing Correctly | Presented by ProphetX
Sharp bettor and responsible gaming advocate Isaac Rose-Berman joins Circles Off at BetBash to break down a tennis edge hiding in plain sight. Because of the way tennis scoring works, a player who falls behind by two breaks in a set will often stop competing entirely to conserve energy for the next one, but sportsbooks don't always adjust their in-match pricing to reflect it. Isaac walks through h
The College Football Edge That Hid in Plain Sight for Two Years | Presented by ProphetX
In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, China joins Circles Off to break down one of the most unique player prop edges of the last decade. Starting around 2016, China built a reputation moving college football player prop lines at a major sportsbook, sometimes 60 to 80 props a week. When a second sportsbook entered the market and began scraping those openers days later, it created a two season win
Aaron Donald is RETURNING to the NFL! | Circle Back | Presented By ProphetX
NFL weekend chaos, Week Zero heartbreak, and plenty of drama.
Aaron Donald is back — so what does that mean for the Rams and their futures? Plus, Jacobs lands on the commissioners list, a fantasy league debacle unfolds, and we investigate the very real possibility that the “49ers guy” is completely fake.
We break down the brutal Hawaii beat from Week Zero, roast Knish for celebrating way too ear
Trump Jr Says BACK OFF • American Odds Shift • Sharps Go Dark | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
This week on Circle Back, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Shipper to break down three stories shaking up the prediction markets and sports betting world. The crew dives into a New York Times report that Donald Trump Jr. privately urged a room of Republican state attorneys general to back off regulating prediction markets, arguing that state pushback was being driven
I Asked the Co-Founder of Our Sponsor the Hard Questions | Presented by ProphetX
This episode is presented by ProphetX. Our guest is ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen — we address the relationship directly at the top of the episode.
Jake Benzaquen co-founded ProphetX eight years ago, long before "prediction market" was a phrase anyone outside finance used. In June, ProphetX became the first sports-native platform to win CFTC approval as a regulated exchange — and this conv
Deshaun Watson named STARTER for the Cleveland Browns + More! | Circle Back | Presented By ProphetX
Browns recap covering Deshaun Watson's postgame comments after getting booed plus the Sanders update, and Dae'Quan Wright's stunning exit from the NFL back to LSU; Ashton Jeanty's injury scare and what it means for fantasy owners; Scottie Scheffler playing through hand, foot & mouth disease at the BMW Championship and whether golf needs injury reporting; Establish The Run shutting down their pick-
Sharp Bettors Are Starting To Call Them Out... Is It Fair? | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Prediction markets are having a moment of reckoning. Sharp bettors are starting to call out PM platforms for the same behavior that made traditional sportsbooks notorious: squeezing out the very winners who helped legitimize the space in the first place. From new maker fees quietly eating into sharp profits to a "pro gambler arc" meme capturing the entire cycle of boom, backlash, and burnout, this
MIT Students Paid $43 to Avoid Free Money (Millions Think That's Smart) | Presented by ProphetX
A post about an MIT professor's coin flip (win $125, lose $100) went viral claiming that refusing the bet was the smart move. The psychology is real. The advice is backwards. This is the difference between risk aversion as wisdom and risk aversion as a leak... and the one number from the story that proves it.
In this video, Rob breaks down why a single coin flip with a roughly 55% implied win p
The Secret Edge in NFL Preseason Betting | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
NFL preseason line movement is under the microscope after a wild stretch of results: teams that have moved 1.5+ points or more on the spread this season are 0-8, and 23-51 since 2024, according to Big Al McMordie's numbers. That trend has reignited a fierce debate about whether closing line value still holds up as a betting principle, with some pointing to small sample sizes and starters entering
The Supreme Court Case That Could Change Prediction Markets Forever | Presented by ProphetX
Prediction markets and sportsbooks might look identical on the surface. Same lines, same moneylines, same spreads. But legally and structurally, they're nothing alike. In this conversation, Jacob sits down with Captain Jack Andrews to break down why prediction markets don't meet the legal definition of gambling the way sportsbooks do, walking through the "chance, consideration, and reward" test, t
1,100 Followers. 35,000+ Posts. Meet Rishi Bets. | Presented by ProphetX
Rishi Bets has been posting on X since 2011 with over 35,000 posts and a following nowhere near what that volume would suggest, and it's exactly why the account works. He posts his bet sizes, his wins, and his losses in real time, no cherry-picking. Rob Pizzola sits down with Rishi for a full interview covering his case for prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks, the World Cup position th
Bet Bash 2026: Steve Fezzik's Seminar, Dunk Tank & More | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Rob and Jacob were on the ground at Bet Bash 2026 (August 4-7), and they're bringing back the biggest storylines from the event, including the fallout from Steve Fezzik's touting ethics seminar. Geoff missed the trip, and shares his perspective from watching it all unfold from home. The crew also dives into the latest out of the WNBA, from a player's claims of white privilege in the league to Enes
You Project 80, the Line Is 72.5... You Might Have Nothing | Presented by ProphetX
You project a running back for 80 rushing yards. The line is 72.5. Nearly eight yards clear — an easy over, right? By the end of this video, that same exact setup might have no bet at all.
Rob Pizzola walks through the full process of turning a raw projection into an actual price — not a vibe, not a gut call, a real number you can trust. Starting from a simple two-minute version anyone can use,
WNBA Circus • Bettor Stiffed $500K? • Netflix Doc Roasted | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
The WNBA can't get out of its own way this week. The league's official account posted — then deleted — video of Paige Bueckers and Angel Reese casually discussing a $400 All-Star Weekend bet, a clear violation of the CBA's anti-wagering rules, and it's raising real questions about how a league office lets that get anywhere near publish. Meanwhile, Seattle Storm co-owner Celeste Keaton was fined an
The Sharp Bettor From Netflix's New Documentary Tells All | Presented by ProphetX
Isaac Rose-Berman was one of the featured sharp bettors in Netflix's new documentary, Instadocs: The Prediction Games — and he's here to break down everything that happened behind the scenes.
In this conversation, Isaac details how he got connected to the production, what he was originally told the documentary would focus on, and how ten hours of filming got condensed into just a few minutes of
LeBron to Sixers • Prediction Markets Doc • $14M Bet Lawsuit | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Netflix just dropped a documentary on the prediction markets boom, and the trailer alone sparked backlash from sharp bettors and skeptics before the film even released. We break down the doc, the reaction, and what it means for the industry. Plus, LeBron James is officially a Philadelphia 76er, and we dig into the betting angle: how the Sixers' title odds shifted, the sheer volume of money traded
LeBron's Heat Leak • Prediction Market Truths • Blame Texas? | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
This week on Circle Back, the crew dives into the Miami Heat's YouTube slip-up, a scheduled livestream titled "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference" for July 27th that got posted, then quickly deleted. The team says it was a mistake made while preparing for a possible signing, but that hasn't stopped the theories. Was this a genuine accident, or a deliberate leak designed to move the needle
Rob Pizzola Gets Honest: The State of Circles Off | Presented by ProphetX
Rob Pizzola sits down solo for a candid state-of-the-channel monologue, no guest, no educational breakdown, just an honest look at where Circles Off is and how it got here. Rob talks through the origins of the channel with Johnny from Betstamp, the plateau that led to the pivot into Circle Back, and the business reality behind The Hammer that most viewers never see, including years of building the
Spain Wins World Cup • DeChambeau Scandal • Twitter Capper Ban | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Spain won the World Cup final 1-0 over Argentina in extra time, with Ferran Torres scoring the winner after Argentina played the entire match down a man following a red card and failed to register a shot until the 117th minute. The match was overshadowed by a chaotic post-game and halftime spectacle, including Donald Trump's involvement in the festivities. In golf, Ryan Fox won the Open Championsh
Argentina-Spain Final • Sharp Money Debate • Trump Bet Scandal | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Argentina stunned England with a late 2-1 comeback to set up a World Cup final showdown with Spain, and the reaction is pouring in. A viral take from China (@Chinamaniac) claiming connections matter more than skill or modeling ability in sports betting has sharp bettors pushing back, with many pointing to prediction markets as an accessible alternative. And a wild story is breaking about a White H
Rob Reacts: How a Sharp Bettor Handles Losing Millions | Presented by ProphetX
Rob Pizzola reacts live to Chris "Flup" Dierkes' viral Substack post detailing a multi-million dollar downswing — and what it actually takes to trust your process through it. Flup, one of the sharpest bettors in the game and a Circle Back regular, wrote candidly about adverse selection, the difference between ego and confidence, spotting real edge vs. variance, closing line value, tilt, and why "j
UFC 329 Fallout • VAR Controversy • Sportsbook VIP Scandal | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Conor McGregor's UFC return lasted just over a minute before a devastating knee injury ended his comeback against Max Holloway — and now the conspiracy theories are flying. Did McGregor know he was hurt before he ever stepped in the cage? The crew breaks down what it means for his career, the UFC's future plans, and how the betting markets reacted to one of the wildest outcomes in recent memory.
World Cup Chaos • McGregor Returns • Mikki Mase Broke? | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Circle Back is back with another live episode, breaking down the biggest stories and chaos from Gambling Twitter this week. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Joey Knish as the crew dives into the wild finish to the World Cup: Team USA's elimination at the hands of Belgium amid controversy over President Trump's call to FIFA president Gianni Infantino, Cristiano Ronald
AI Can't Pick Winners... Here's What It CAN Do | Presented by ProphetX
Most people are using AI as a betting oracle, and it's costing them money. Rob Pizzola breaks down the right way to actually use AI for sports betting — not by asking it who wins tonight's games, but by treating it as a research assistant, a coder, and a data scientist that does the labor while you bring the judgment. Rob walks through a real example from the World Cup, where he built an expected
Balogun/Trump/FIFA • Spotify Ranking Issue • England vs Mexico | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
The FIFA World Cup is in absolute chaos after reports that Florian Balogun’s red card suspension was reversed ahead of USA vs Belgium following a high-profile intervention involving Donald Trump, sparking major backlash over corruption concerns, competitive integrity, and whether governing bodies are being influenced at the highest level. The crew also breaks down a separate controversy involving
USA Advance • Malik Beasley Indicted • Jordan Spieth Hypocrisy | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Live on this week’s Circle Back, the crew breaks down one of the biggest cross-sport news days of the year. The United States have advanced in the FIFA World Cup, but the win is overshadowed after a controversial red card to Florian Balogun that will now see him miss a massive matchup against Belgium. The panel discusses what the decision means on the field — and what it could mean for the betting
The Most Expensive Mistake Sports Bettors Keep Making | Presented by ProphetX
Most bettors think their edge comes from projection models, numbers, or opinions they’ve built on their own work. But there’s one thing many of them ignore completely: the market.
In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down why ignoring line movement and market information is one of the most expensive mistakes a bettor can make — not because the market is always right, but because it constantly prov
Matt Miller Controversy • World Cup Drama • NFL Tampering? | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
On today's Circle Back, we break down the controversy surrounding Matt Miller after years of allegations resurfaced following his recent GoFundMe campaign, discuss Canada's dramatic 1-0 stoppage-time win over South Africa to advance at the World Cup, look at the latest World Cup odds including the United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and debate the NFL tampering questions surrounding Adam Sch
World Cup Drama • PMs vs. Sportsbooks • Secret Edges | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Today on Circle Back LIVE, we’re diving into the biggest gambling conversations happening right now — from World Cup betting angles and market reactions to the growing debate between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks. The panel breaks down where sharp bettors are finding edges, what’s driving the latest sportsbook vs prediction market discussion, and the “hidden” sources of betting in
The Red Flags That Instantly Expose Bad Sports Bettors | Presented by ProphetX
Every time a new sport gets going or a new account starts popping up on social media, the same question starts flooding in: should I trust this person’s record?
Rob Pizzola breaks down the exact checklist he uses when evaluating whether a sports bettor is actually legit or just riding variance and good timing. From win-loss records that don’t tell the full story, to missing tracking metrics lik
Prediction Market Controversy • Tkachuk Traded • Cabo Verde | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
The Wall Street Journal investigation into a major prediction market platform alleging offshore promotional tactics, misleading creator campaigns, and staged “wins” sparks debate about how far marketing manipulation may be going in the space. The crew also reacts to a blockbuster NHL trade sending Brady Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers, and breaks down Cabo Verde’s stunning World Cup run after secu
The Sports Betting Game Has Changed Forever... Here’s How To Take Advantage | Presented by ProphetX
Prediction markets are putting real pressure on traditional sportsbooks as reduced-vig pricing continues to reshape how odds are being offered across the industry. The panel breaks down how books are still hanging onto outdated pricing structures—like heavy two-way lines and inefficient World Cup markets—while prediction markets push tighter spreads and more competitive pricing models. The convers
Which Degrees Actually Help You Win At Betting? (The Honest Truth) | Presented by ProphetX
In this episode of Circles Off, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) for a unique tier list breakdown that ranks sports betting personalities based on something rarely discussed in betting debates: their educational backgrounds — and how useful those degrees actually are in becoming a winning bettor.
The discussion runs through a full S to D tier system, evaluating
Eric Trump, Daniel Cormier & Another UFC Betting Controversy | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX TITLE 2
The UFC 250 DM scandal involving Daniel Cormier and Eric Trump sits at the center of the episode after alleged Instagram messages surfaced suggesting requests for UFC betting intel ahead of fights at the White House, with screenshots posted and then deleted as both sides deny authenticity and claim hacking, fueling debate over whether the story is real or fabricated. The crew also reacts to the Kn
Knicks Stun Spurs • Jeff Nadu Fires Back • Smart Hedge or Illegal Bet? | Presented by ProphetX
We break down one of the most unbelievable NBA Finals games in recent memory as the Knicks storm back from a 29-point deficit to beat the Spurs in Game 4 and take a 3-1 series lead. We go through how the comeback unfolded, the key turning points, and the wild betting implications around the game, including massive live movement on ProphetX that saw the Knicks priced as high as 30-1 mid-game.
We
Fixed Fights, Stiffed Partners, and a Decade of Sharp MMA Betting | Presented by ProphetX
Circles Off sits down with Andrew Gombas for a deep dive into one of the most complete career paths in modern sports betting.
Andrew has done nearly every job in the industry — from pick selling, to running betting groups, to working inside PPH-style operations, to becoming a full-time bettor focused heavily on MMA. In this conversation with Rob Pizzola, he breaks down what each side of the ind
Jeff Nadu EXPOSES Himself After Betting Screenshot Goes Viral | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Jeff Nadu faces backlash after a betting screenshot from a Novig post goes viral, with viewers zooming in on what appears to be a $1.06 wager and sparking criticism over how he presents himself as a sports bettor. The situation escalates as the screenshot spreads online, fueling debate around credibility, unit sizing, and perception in public-facing betting content. Meanwhile, a $35K crypto disput
Limiting Got Worse • Haralabob vs Kalish • Hedge Fund Misery | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
These New Betting Laws are already getting pushback after Massachusetts introduced a rule requiring sportsbooks to notify bettors when their accounts are limited and provide a reason. On paper, it’s framed as transparency for consumers, but early reactions from bettors suggest it doesn’t actually explain much—just a polished way of saying winning action isn’t welcome. The debate has quickly turned
The Most Interesting Sports Bettor You’ve Never Heard Of | Presented by ProphetX
Circles Off sits down with sharp bettor Thon Misser (@ThonMisser) for a deep dive into how he actually approaches modern betting markets, from live wagering to prediction markets and everything in between.
Thon has quietly built a reputation for finding edges in places most bettors ignore — including niche sports like Japanese baseball, reality TV markets, and newer prediction market platforms.
HUGE Game 7 Mistake • The $1.7M Parlay • UCL Drama | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
A betting influencer, Taylor Mathis, has sparked controversy after a Game 7 betting slip post showing one side of a wager while appearing to place another, leading to a wave of backlash and confusion across Gambling Twitter. The crew breaks down the fallout, the viral $1.7 million parlay sweat that divided the community, whether sportsbooks should ever void bets placed in error, and the growing de
SGA's Legal Warning • Voiding Complaints • Market Integrity | Circle Back
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s camp sending a legal warning to Underdog over a foul-baiting board game has sparked a much larger conversation about where the line is between creative sports content and athlete representation rights. Jacob Gramegna, Chris Dierkes, Mike (Peanut Bettor), and Shipper break down what actually happened, why Underdog is refusing to back down, and what this says about how spor
The Biggest Mistake Bettors Make With Player Props
Most bettors are losing money on player props because they’re using the wrong inputs.
If you’re looking at a player’s last 10, 15, or 20 games to project a prop, you’re not finding an edge — you’re creating a false one.
In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down one of the most common and costly mistakes in sports betting: treating hit rates like probabilities. It might look like math. It might
DraftKings Co-Founder Calls Us Out • NASCAR Void Debate • Cormier Bet Dispute | Circle Back
DraftKings co-founder responds directly to recent criticism and sparks a wider debate about prediction markets, how sportsbooks are evolving, and whether the industry is heading in the right direction or not. The crew breaks down that situation alongside a NASCAR betting controversy where a wager was graded as a loss instead of being voided, triggering backlash over how sportsbooks handle unexpect
Gambling Twitter Explodes • DraftKings Co-Founder RANT • UFC Tax Push | Circle Back
DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish set Gambling Twitter on fire after a viral rant about prediction markets, sharp bettors, retail gamblers, and the future of sports betting. Jacob Gramegna, Joey Knish, Storm Pig, and Porter of BA Analytics react to the entire situation, break down the backlash, and discuss what the conversation says about the current state of the gambling industry. The crew also d
Rob Pizzola & Plus EV Analytics Answer Your Toughest Modeling Questions
In this Circles Off Q&A, Rob Pizzola is joined by Plus EV Analytics, Matt Buchalter, for a deep dive into sports betting modeling — how it actually works in practice, what separates good models from bad ones, and how sharp bettors think about building and evaluating their edge.
This episode is built around 10 of the toughest modeling questions pulled directly from Circles Off content and commun
We React to Guy Boston Sports’ Viral NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy
In this episode of Circles Off, Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola and Matt Buchalter as they react to a viral NBA Same Game Parlay strategy from Guy Boston Sports that has been circulating across YouTube.
The group breaks down the ideas presented in the video titled “My Winning Same Game Parlay Strategy for the NBA,” which has gathered tens of thousands of views, and examines whether the
The UFC Betting Market Just Had Another Huge Red Flag
The UFC betting market is under scrutiny again after suspicious line movement on Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley caused sportsbooks to pull the fight entirely before Brady won as a massive underdog. The crew also discusses Sean Strickland upsetting Khamzat Chimaev, new legislation aimed at sportsbook limiting practices in New Jersey, and the viral World Cup betting strategy claiming bettors can “gu
Lost Rent Tailing Picks • Fake Bet Slip Drama • Gambling Twitter Meltdown
A sports bettor on Twitter revealed he was missing the last bit of money needed to pay rent, so he decided to tail a Dub Club pick seller that was being promoted as a winning bettor. The story sparked a massive discussion about gambling responsibly, the dangers of relying on sports betting for income, and the growing trust issues around pick-selling culture online. The crew also reacts to another
This NBA Same Game Parlay Edge Shouldn’t Have Existed
In this episode of Legendary Loopholes on Circles Off, Jacob Gramegna is joined by Matt Buchalter, also known as Plus EV Analytics, to break down one of the most incredible NBA betting edges you’ll ever hear.
Matt walks through how he discovered a Same Game Parlay error at an offshore sportsbook that created a massive edge. What started as a small observation quickly turned into an opportunity
Viral Betting Take EXPOSED • ID Checks Going Too Far? • Sharps vs Everyone
A viral tweet claiming sportsbooks “screw their customers” gets broken down — and the math behind it doesn’t hold up. The crew digs into how betting markets actually work, why pricing is often misunderstood, and how public perception of sportsbooks gets shaped by viral takes. They also react to a bizarre identity verification request from BallyBet that raises questions about how far sportsbooks ar
NCAA Betting Scandal • Prediction Market Truth • Parlay Myths
This episode covers a wide range of topics across betting, prediction markets, and probabilistic thinking. We start with the Brendan Sorsby situation after reports surfaced about a major gambling-related issue involving the Texas Tech QB, including over 10,000 bets placed dating back to 2022. The conversation focuses on what this means for gambling integrity in college sports and the broader respo
Rob Pizzola Presses FanDuel VP On Bet Protect+
In this episode of Circles Off, Rob Pizzola sits down with Jon Sadow, VP of Sportsbook Product at FanDuel, to break down the launch of Bet Protect+.
This new feature, introduced during the NBA Playoffs, allows bettors to pay a small fee to insure their wagers against player injuries. But how does Bet Protect+ actually work, and what does it mean for bettors in practice?
Rather than speculati
How a U.S. Soldier Turned Classified Info Into $400K
A U.S. soldier is now at the center of a massive betting controversy after allegedly using classified information tied to a secret mission to make over $400,000 on Polymarket. The situation has sparked a major debate around insider trading, prediction markets, and where the line is drawn between public information and national security. Things escalated further when Donald Trump weighed in on the
This Sports Betting Blog Called Out EVERYONE (Including Us)
Welcome to Circles Off! In this episode, Rob Pizzola reacts to the 2026 Sports Betting Superlatives blog written by Ferris (FerrisB_86), one of the most well-known voices in the sports betting space.
This blog doesn’t hold back — featuring bold takes, callouts, and “most likely to” superlatives across the industry, including Rob himself and others from The Hammer Betting Network. Some of it hit
Bet Protection Debate • Unit Shaming • Early Payout Gone Wrong?
FanDuel’s new BetProtect Plus feature is getting a lot of attention — but is it actually worth it? We break down how the 3% premium works, why it might seem appealing to casual bettors, and the major flaws that make it a losing play long term. From guaranteed negative EV scenarios to why using it on unders makes no sense, we explain what bettors are missing and why this “protection” could be costi
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Deadline: White House
