Forward Guidance

The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup Sep 18, 2026 4350 What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation? This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset. We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Int

The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean Curnutt Sep 16, 2026 3242 Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade. This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling. We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and w

The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup Sep 11, 2026 2723 Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear. This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets. We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause

Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber Sep 2, 2026 2690 The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural? This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction. We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking inf

Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup Aug 27, 2026 3189 The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields. This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention. We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the

Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup Aug 20, 2026 3222 Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade. This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation. We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, o

The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale Aug 12, 2026 2769 Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook. We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 I

Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup Aug 7, 2026 3594 Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next. This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression. We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoi

The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian Aug 5, 2026 1922 Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention. This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns. We explore Warsh's Fed strateg

The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup Aug 3, 2026 2943 AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates. This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection. We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography.

AI Efficiency Is Repricing The Compute Market | Steve Hou Jul 22, 2026 2630 AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand. Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute. We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable retu

The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup Jul 17, 2026 3228 The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear. This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade. We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy! TIME

Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent Donnelly Jul 8, 2026 2780 Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it. This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading. We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why

The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup Jul 3, 2026 2804 Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack. This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once. We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy!

How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan Jun 29, 2026 2700 Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh. This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing. We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters

Is The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly Roundup Jun 26, 2026 3595 The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve. This week, we break down why the Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, how AI investment is reshaping markets, and where capital is rotating next. We also discuss peak inflation, hyperscaler capex, market dis

A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup Jun 19, 2026 3863 A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly? This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging. We also discuss

The Warsh Fed Will Look Nothing Like Before | Joseph Wang Jun 17, 2026 2377 A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision. Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting to unpack what may be the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the Federal Reserve. We discuss Warsh’s hawkish debut, the end of the forward guidance era, swe

Blockworks Acquires Messari Jun 12, 2026 1739 In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockwork

Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly Roundup Jun 12, 2026 3402 Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today. This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning. We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructur

Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen Jun 11, 2026 3143 A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide. Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to discuss Kevin Warsh’s looming challenge and why the Fed may soon face choices it can no longer avoid. We explore the dollar versus bond market tradeoff, the impact of the Iran conflict and

Why This Economy Refuses To Break | David Cervantes Jun 3, 2026 2807 While investors wait for a recession that never comes, AI spending and fiscal stimulus keep pouring fuel on the expansion. David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital joins to explain how AI spending is reshaping the economy, profits, and traditional market dynamics. We also discuss productivity gains, consumer resilience, inflation risks, Fed policy, bond market reactions, energy markets, and Davi

How To Trade The AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup May 29, 2026 2983 This week, we're back to discuss whether the economy is entering an AI driven productivity boom and what that means for markets. We deep dive into whether the Fed should actually be hiking rates, growing signs of consumer weakness, how we're thinking about positioning in this environment and more. Enjoy! -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:22) Should The Fed Be Hiking Rates? (07:53) The A

Can The AI Driven Rally Continue? | Weekly Roundup May 21, 2026 3138 This week, we're back to discuss the current AI driven market rally and wether or not it can continue. We then deep dive into the positive tailwinds for energy companies, the trillion dollar wave of IPO's in 2026, the bond market sell off, why active is outperforming and more. Enjoy! -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:42) The Bond Market Sell Off (14:32) Can This Market Bubble Continue?

The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup May 15, 2026 3159 Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control. This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop. We also explore the consumer slow

The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta May 13, 2026 2921 AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read. Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path. We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:54 The Real Inflation St

Oil And AI Are Breaking The Middle Class | Weekly Roundup May 9, 2026 3259 Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people. This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to pres

Passive Easing Is Fueling The Next Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan May 6, 2026 3013 Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint. Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again. We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:0

Central Bank Control Is Breaking | Weekly Roundup Apr 30, 2026 3751 Markets may be entering a volatile new regime where inflation, geopolitics, and policy fragmentation collide, challenging the stability investors have relied on for decades. This week, we break down the latest Fed meeting and what it signals about shifting power from central banks toward fiscal and political forces shaping markets. We also explore rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance

The AI Bubble Is Widely Misunderstood | Steve Hou Apr 29, 2026 3342 AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain. Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural. We dive into AI-driven capex, p

The Fed Is Irrelevant While CapEx Runs The Economy | Weekly Roundup Apr 24, 2026 3817 Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long. This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy. We also explore AI-driven capex as the true

Markets Are Misreading A Late Cycle Liquidity Crunch | Michael Howell Apr 22, 2026 3529 Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk. We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy. We explore the liquidity vs. business cycl

Market Structure is Fueling an Inflation Trap | Weekly Roundup Apr 16, 2026 2238 Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality. This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move. We explore extreme positioning, retail chasing, sticky inflation, policy incentives into midterms, and why capital markets may be losing integr

How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi Apr 15, 2026 2880 AI is reshaping how decisions get made in markets, but does faster insight actually create better outcomes, or just new risks? We speak with Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity and former global macro investor, on how AI is being deployed inside hedge funds and why this moment may be more transformative than the ChatGPT hype cycle suggests. We explore AI-driven idea generation, solving small sa

Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup Apr 10, 2026 3420 Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down. This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows. We explore AI-led productiv

The Iran War is Accelerating the End of Globalism | Jacob Shapiro Apr 7, 2026 3203 A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are, raising a deeper question about whether we're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era. Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro joins us to break down the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy. We unpack shi

Why AI Will Reprice The Entire Economy | Jordi Visser Apr 6, 2026 1962 AI is much more than another tech cycle. It’s a structural break that’s rewriting how economies function, how markets price assets, and how humans create value. We sit down with Jordi Visser of 22V Research live from the Digital Asset Summit in New York to unpack how the shift from chatbots to autonomous agents is reshaping productivity, markets, and long-term economic frameworks. We explore

Market Structure is Distorting Reality as Inflation Builds | Weekly Roundup Apr 3, 2026 3665 Markets appear frozen, but under the surface, positioning shifts and macro pressures suggest something far more unstable is unfolding. We’re back with the trio dissecting market structure, geopolitical risks, and the growing disconnect between headlines and actual capital flows. We dig into extreme hedging, volatility-driven moves, inflation from energy shocks, rotation into real assets, and

Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated Apr 1, 2026 1997 Policy may be reacting to the wrong signals, as powerful structural forces quietly reshape inflation and the economy beneath the surface. In this episode live from the Digital Asset Summit, we sit down with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran to unpack his recent dissent and why he believes inflation risks are overstated while the labor market deserves more support. We explore oil shocks

The Fed Is Trapped As Oil Drives Inflation Higher | Weekly Roundup Mar 27, 2026 2464 Global markets face a fragile moment where a geopolitical shock could collide with already restrictive monetary policy, creating a setup few investors are prepared for. Felix and Quinn sit down with Joseph Wang live at DAS New York to unpack today's chaotic macro landscape, focusing on how energy markets and central bank constraints are increasingly intertwined. We explore oil supply risks,

AI Will Drive The Biggest Boom In History | Raoul Pal Mar 25, 2026 2513 AI is forcing a rethinking of everything from energy and geopolitics to markets and human purpose while raising a deeper question: are we entering an era of abundance or losing control of the systems we’re building? Raoul Pal joins us live from DAS to break down how the AI arms race, liquidity dynamics, and crypto infrastructure are converging into a single macro narrative shaping the next cycl

Investor Relations in the Onchain Era Mar 24, 2026 1319 In this special episode, we introduce Blockworks’ new investor relations platform for onchain businesses. As institutional capital continues to enter crypto markets, expectations around transparency, standardization, and professionalism are rising. But instead of replicating legacy systems, Blockworks IR takes a different approach, leveraging real-time, onchain data to create a more transparent

Escalating Energy Shock Exposing Central Bank Limits | Weekly Roundup Mar 20, 2026 2990 We explore a market caught between fragile stability and mounting geopolitical pressure, where central banks, energy shocks, and liquidity constraints collide in unpredictable ways. Quinn and Felix break down the latest Fed meeting, shifting rate expectations, and how global energy disruptions in the Middle East are reshaping macro positioning and investor sentiment. We cover energy shocks,

The Macro Chain Reaction of Oil Shocks | Bob Elliott Mar 18, 2026 2852 In this episode, we explore how a sudden oil shock and geopolitical conflict can quickly rewrite the global macro outlook, forcing markets and policymakers into a difficult balancing act between inflation and growth. We sit down with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to unpack how the Iran-driven oil shock fits into today’s fragile, savings-driven economy. We discuss oil shocks past and presen

Why the Oil Shock Could Trigger a Global Recession | Weekly Roundup Mar 13, 2026 3366 In this episode, we explore the fog of war in markets, where geopolitics and volatility scramble investors’ assumptions. Quinn and Felix break down the macro landscape, analyzing war narratives, energy shocks, and shifting expectations for growth, jobs, and Fed policy. We debate oil spikes, dollar strength, bonds, gold, options positioning, and hidden risks from agriculture to private credit

The Global Economy Is Splitting Into Spheres | Eric Wallerstein Mar 11, 2026 3529 Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, Eric Wallerstein, explores how shifting geopolitics, Trump-era monetary policy, and structural economic forces are reshaping global macro. We cover tariffs, the dollar, Iran-driven market shocks, Fed balance sheet strategy, and the future of bank regulation. Along the way, we also unpack AI productivity, repo market fragility, and why Latin America could

Is The Iran Energy Shock About To Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup Mar 6, 2026 3955 This week, we explore how the Iran escalation is stress-testing a fragile, late-cycle financial system already stretched by years of easy liquidity. We examine oil volatility, energy chokepoints, bonds failing as safe havens, and the growing risk that geopolitics could trigger a broader liquidity event. We also discuss AI CapEx, private credit stress, political tensions, and the shifting structure

Introducing: Inflection Point | The Crypto-TradFi Convergence Mar 5, 2026 3830 In this first episode of Inflection Point, we explore the accelerating convergence between traditional finance and crypto as institutional adoption begins reshaping the foundations of global financial infrastructure. The conversation examines ETFs, DeFi innovation, market structure shifts, institutional flows, and how evolving investor behavior is changing Bitcoin and digital asset markets. Along

The AI Productivity Boom Is Here | Luigi Buttiglione Mar 4, 2026 3113 CEO of LB Macro Luigi Buttiglione explores whether the AI-driven productivity boom marks a durable shift in the global economy or the start of new financial imbalances. We discuss U.S. exceptionalism, neutral rates and monetary policy risks, leverage in the AI buildout, public debt sustainability, and Europe’s structural challenges. We also touch on geopolitical supply shocks and what they could m

AI Reratings & Growth Reacceleration Add Fuel To The Real Asset Rotation | Weekly Roundup Feb 26, 2026 3280 We discuss the latest AI productivity disruptions, market reactions to the Citrini piece, NVIDIA earnings, and why capital keeps rotating away from software toward real assets, energy, and commodities. We also explore volatility, policy distortions, and signs of economic reacceleration. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https

What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart Feb 25, 2026 2784 Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart discusses the $9 billion crypto ETF exodus, the spaghetti cannon approach to new ETF launches, and why the great sector rotation into energy, materials, and industrials creates the perfect environment for active managers while AI steals crypto’s speculative thunder. We also dig into the risks of levered and covered call ETFs, index rebalancing, and more. Enjoy!

Capital Is Leaving Big Tech For Gold And Energy | Weekly Roundup Feb 21, 2026 2631 This week, we're fresh off the inaugural TG Macro Conference in Nashville, unpacking all the biggest takeaways ranging from commodity cycles, gold, miners, oil, rates, and market psychology. We also reflect on trading lessons, risk management, and why in-person macro communities matter more than ever. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Q

Dispersion Is Exploding While Main Street Reaccelerates | Weekly Roundup Feb 13, 2026 3572 This week, we break down evidence of a quiet Main Street re-acceleration, exploding market dispersion, AI-driven shifts in correlations, why passive strategies are being disrupted, and where capital is rotating across real assets, rates, and global markets. Enjoy! — FollowTyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follo

How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd Feb 11, 2026 3171 Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Vincent Deluard explains his three-bubble thesis for 2026, why tax receipts reveal stronger nominal growth than headline data, how fiscal stimulus could fuel a second inflation wave, the Fed’s likely policy path under Kevin Warsh, and why international diversification matters more than ever. Enjoy! __ Follow Vincent: https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follo

Markets Are Entering A New Era Of AI-Driven Disruption | Weekly Roundup Feb 6, 2026 3941 This week we break down the brutal de-leveraging across markets, why AI CapEx is flipping the old buyback playbook and what it means for Mag7, crypto's bloodbath, the next moves from the Fed and bond market. We also dig into credit risk, factor rotations, the Epstein list, and why gold is sending a louder signal than Bitcoin. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: ht

Will Trump's New Fed Chair Crash Markets? | Joseph Wang Feb 4, 2026 2851 Joseph Wang joins the show to break down the implications of Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination, debate QE versus balance-sheet restraint, explore shifting views on central bank independence, and unpack what all of this means for rates, markets, and inflation going forward.. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/josephwang Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twi

The Fed Is Background Noise While Markets Reprice Reality | Weekly Roundup Jan 30, 2026 3694 This week, we discuss a sleepy Fed meeting, why policy signals feel increasingly irrelevant, and what’s really driving the generational metals squeeze. We also dig into AI capex killing buybacks, market structure cracks, the future composition of the Fed, and where traders are finding opportunity as correlations break down. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https:/

Finding The Next Perfect Trade | Alex Gurevich Jan 28, 2026 3181 In this episode, former Managing Director of global macro trading at JPMorgan and bestselling author Alex Gurevich joins the show to discuss his updated book The Next Perfect Trade, unpacking what actually makes a good trade across regimes. We also cover how to express trades, precious metals, carry trades, options simplicity, rates going to zero, and how AI may reshape discretionary macro trading

The Generational Metal Squeeze Exposing Broken Sovereign Debt | Weekly Roundup Jan 23, 2026 3200 This week, we unpack why metals are ripping, how dollar weakness and bond market dysfunction are reshaping macro, and what Japan’s experience signals for the U.S. We also explore extreme metals positioning, dispersion across assets, and what uncertainty around the new Fed Chair means for rates. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Feli

Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan Jan 21, 2026 2885 In this episode, Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility joins the show to discuss the bifurcation of the world economy, inequality & the election cycle, populism during a war-time economy, and the secular market rotation. Enjoy! __ Follow Cem: https://x.com/jam_croissant Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitt

The Market Is Rotating Faster Than Policy Can Keep Up | Weekly Roundup Jan 16, 2026 3105 This week, we unpack rising market euphoria, sector rotations and why consumers are suddenly back in focus. We also dig into Fed constraints, Japan’s endgame, Bitcoin waking up, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Bloc

The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell Jan 14, 2026 3168 In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss the silver trade and structural supply-demand imbalances in metals, AI acceleration and mismatch between CapEx & demand, and the breakdown of globalism. We also dig into the emerging political horseshoe, tariffs, and China’s trade leverage. Enjoy! __ Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forw

Commodities & Cyclicals Are 2026’s Mega-Cap Tech | Weekly Roundup Jan 9, 2026 3208 This week, we discuss an insanely busy news cycle from geopolitics to surging metals and commodities, AI CapEx bottlenecks, and the SCOTUS tariff ruling. We also dig into the mega-cap rotation, political moves for midterms, and signs of economic re-acceleration shaping markets in 2026. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: http

Future Growth Will Be Driven By Banks, Not the Fed | Andy Constan Jan 7, 2026 3749 In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to break down why markets may be leaving the Fed-driven era behind, how private credit and bank balance sheets are becoming the real engine of growth, and what massive AI and onshoring investments mean for rates, risk, and the business cycle going forward. Enjoy! __ Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follo

The Market Has Already Picked Its Winners for 2026 | Tony Greer Dec 31, 2025 2194 In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to break down why the metals trade still feels early, whether oil finally catches a bid in 2026, why AI could be in its last innings, and what Bitcoin’s frustrating price action is quietly telling traders. We also unpack how to think about managing risk and Tony’s advice for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Felix: https://x.co

Why This Isn’t A Bubble & Early 2026 Looks Like Goldilocks | Warren Pies Dec 24, 2025 2984 In this episode, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss why disinflation and Goldilocks conditions persist into early 2026, and where the real risks may flip from cooling to overheating. We also explore his outlook on bonds, equities, commodities, and the policy trade-offs beneath a K-shaped economy. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren: https://x.com/WarrenPies Follow Felix: https://x

Why Today’s Economy Serves Assets, Not Workers | Harris Kupperman Dec 19, 2025 3474 In this episode, Harris (Kuppy) Kupperman joins Tyler to discuss why markets may look strong, but beneath the surface they’re being run for asset holders, not workers. We explore how policy choices, market structure, and AI hype are driving asset-driven feudalism. Enjoy! — Follow Kuppy: https://x.com/kuppyskorner Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fe

How To Position In A "Slowdown" Regime | Market Radar Dec 17, 2025 3093 In this episode, the Market Radar team joins the show to discuss why markets have struggled to trend, how Market Radar’s models navigate slowdowns versus true risk-off regimes, and what growth, inflation, and liquidity signals are actually saying beneath the headlines. We also cover finding real macro signals from the noise and their predictions for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Market Radar: https://x

Fed Embraces "Run It Hot" For Powell's Final Months | Weekly Roundup Dec 11, 2025 3525 This week, we discuss a pivotal FOMC day, the Fed’s new liquidity injections, shifting market leadership, and why inflation, credit, and social pressures are all converging into a “run-it-hot” regime. We also weigh the implications for Main Street, metals, Bitcoin, and 2026 positioning. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https

The Global Economy Runs on Perpetual Stimulus | Keith Dicker Dec 10, 2025 2672 In this episode, Founder & CIO of IceCap Asset Management and host of The Loonie Hour podcast Keith Dicker breaks down why global markets now depend on constant stimulus, why Canada looks fragile as the U.S. strengthens, and how fiscal expansion and bond-market stress could shape the future of macro. Enjoy! __ Follow Keith: https://x.com/IceCapGlobal Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Foll

AI & Central Planning Are Propping Up the Economy | Weekly Roundup Dec 5, 2025 3612 This week, we discuss why the economy feels strong on paper but fragile underneath, from debt-fueled spending and AI-driven growth to rising concentration and growing policy distortions. We also explore where the pressure is really building, the metals trade, and what could break next as 2026 approaches. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp F

The Hidden Fractures Behind America’s “Resilient” Economy | Aahan Menon Dec 3, 2025 3224 In this episode, Aahan Menon of Prometheus Macro digs into why the economy feels strong on the surface but uneasy beneath it, the AI investment boom propping up profits, and why the bond market can’t find its footing. We also explore why traditional recession playbooks are breaking down, the transmission of liquidity and monetary into markets, and what actually matters if you’re trying to find an

The AI Economy Is Leaving Labor Behind | Weekly Roundup Nov 27, 2025 3400 This week, we discuss the Fed’s whiplash on December rate-cut expectations, why markets are being driven more by positioning and volatility than fundamentals, and how AI-led CapEx is masking weakness across the real economy. We also dig into the Beige Book’s warnings on employment and AI-driven layoffs, the political pressure building into 2025, and Mike Green’s viral case that the true cost of li

AI Is Ushering in an Entirely New Economic Paradigm | Jordi Visser Nov 26, 2025 3312 In this episode, Jordi Visser joins the show to discuss how exponential technologies, shifting demographics, and rising wealth concentration are quietly reshaping the economic landscape in ways traditional macro models can’t capture. He hints at why AI, deflation, and political incentives may matter far more than the usual data releases and how Bitcoin fits into this evolving world. Enjoy! __ Fo

AI’s CapEx Frenzy Hits Wall of Fed Hawkishness | Weekly Roundup Nov 20, 2025 3690 This week, we discuss NVIDIA’s latest earnings, how shifting credit dynamics could reshape the next phase of the AI boom, what the Fed’s mixed signals really imply for markets, and why global FX moves are sending quiet warnings. We also dig into the surprising forces driving crypto’s recent washout and what they may signal about the road ahead. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows Nov 19, 2025 3105 In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes

Hawkish Fed, Credit Stress & A K-Shaped America | Weekly Roundup Nov 14, 2025 3071 This week, we discuss markets wobbling as a pointless government shutdown, delayed data releases, and a hawkish Fed collide with rising credit stress, over-levered AI giants, and widening inequality. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

LTCM Co-Founder on Risk, Leverage & Simplicity | Victor Haghani Nov 12, 2025 3740 In this episode, founder of Elm Wealth and co-founder of LTCM Victor Haghani shares lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and contrasts today’s highly levered hedge-fund world with LTCM’s era. He also explains Elm’s Dynamic Index Investing framework and why simplicity and discipline outperform complexity and return-chasing over time. Enjoy! __ Follow Victor: https://x.com/ElmWealth Follow

America’s Two-Tier Economy Is Breaking Down | Weekly Roundup Nov 7, 2025 3086 This week, we discuss America’s decaying two-tier economy, with Main Street stuck in a silent recession, the Fed trapped between fiscal dominance and market structure rot, and younger generations turning to crypto and speculation as their only escape from a rigged system. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/

The Next Chapter For Blockworks | Empire Nov 5, 2025 4216 In this episode from the Empire podcast, we discuss why Blockworks decided to shut down its news room. We then dive into why 2025 marks the start of a new chapter for the crypto industry, why we're still in a bull market, MegaETH's ICO, recent IPOs, M&A and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz F

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