The Spillover
Each week, The Spillover traces the ripple effects of global events, exploring the intersection of policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. It helps listeners understand how critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world.
Episodes
What We Got Right (and Wrong) This Year
This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, covering the “Fragile Four” economies, OpenAI’s funding crisis, the AI IPO race, the Iran war, and more.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Reb
Central Banks in a Bind + Could AI Replace the FOMC?
This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to discuss how the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve on inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s task forces, and the role of AI in monetary policymaking.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for Internationa
Why Won’t Europe Do More For Ukraine? + The Rise of Pro-Russia Populism
This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the escalating geopolitical headwinds the region faces.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council o
Nvidia Bets Big on Hugging Face + Sebastian Sashimi + AI-Powered Toothbrushes
This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, they argue, highlights a battle between two visions of how the AI industry will develop, as well as concerns about safety and oligopoly.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Counc
Can the U.S. ‘Grow’ Its Way Out of Debt? + Taxing Wealth in the Age of AI
This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that the United States can grow its way out of record debt, and whether AI can deliver the growth, jobs, and tax revenue needed to make that happen.
Host:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
The U.S. Buys Stake in a Venezuelan Oil Company + Why Efficiency Is the Real Path to Energy Security
This week, host Rebecca Patterson sits down with energy and climate expert Vijay Vaitheeswaran to discuss the U.S. government's acquisition of 35 percent equity stake in a Venezuelan oil company and how managing demand and boosting efficiency are critical for long-term energy security and climate progress.
Host:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
Vi
Could the AI Debt Problem Create the Next Financial Crisis?
The financing behind the AI boom has grown so large that treasury bond yields are approaching levels not seen since the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis. But is the risk to the financial market overblown? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, to discuss the threat AI debt poses to the U.S. bond market.
Hosts:
Sebastian Malla
The Hosts Pick a Global AI Winner + The Advanced Economy Deployment Problem + The Question Even the Experts Can't Answer
Artificial intelligence has become the biggest variable in the U.S. economy, but is the country really positioned to win the global race for economic dominance in AI? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby draw on Patterson's new chapter for the book Geopolitics of AI to guess at an eventual winner. The pair weighs the inputs of talent, capital, energy, and public support, and question
How China Is Quietly Winning the Iran War Energy Crisis
Five months of war in Iran have completely reshaped energy markets. This week, the Baker Institute’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen joins Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby to examine how conflict in the Strait of Hormuz exposed the fragility of the world's maritime chokepoints, and revealed China as the quiet winner of the crisis.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for I
Spillover Summer Reading: The Best Books on Forecasting, Silicon Valley, and the Future
In this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby swap summer reading recommendations, including fiction and nonfiction picks covering American thinkers’ predictions for the twentieth century, an Irish murder mystery, and a Stanford student’s exposé on Silicon Valley venture capital and start-up culture.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for Intern
Jordan Schneider Thinks the Real AI Race Is About Compute, Not Models
In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby sits down with Jordan Schneider, founder and editor-in-chief of the ChinaTalk podcast and newsletter, to discuss AI progress and security, as well as the U.S.-China AI rivalry.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
Jordan Schneider, Founder and Edi
The AI Trilemma + Open-Weight Proliferation + the “Singularity Delusion”
In this episode, The Spillover’s Sebastian Mallaby is hosted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan, editor of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the “AI trilemma”—the challenge U.S. policymakers face in encouraging enough innovation to stay ahead of China while addressing public anxiety about AI. Drawing on Mallaby’s recent Foreign Affairs essay and his new book, The Infinity Machine, this episode explores the stakes of t
Rahm Emanuel Talks Israel, Midterm Elections, and the Democratic Party
Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Rahm Emanuel, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political strategist, President Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff, and President Joe Biden’s U.S. ambassador to Japan. The trio discuss Emanuel’s recent speech in Israel, the state of the U.S. Democratic Party, and the outlook for the upcoming midterm elections.
Hosts:
Rebec
Washington Considers a Stake in OpenAI + Altman’s Gambit + America, Inc.
On this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby, joined by CFR expert Jonathan Hillman, examine the U.S. government's rapidly growing portfolio of equity stakes in private companies, including a potential stake in OpenAI.
Hosts:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Eco
Gold vs. Bitcoin Showdown
Cohosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby stage a friendly debate over two so-called dollar alternatives—gold and bitcoin—weighing whether either has truly earned its reputation as a store of value. Patterson defends gold’s centuries of institutional credibility and diversification track record, while Mallaby makes the bull case for bitcoin’s finite supply and upside potential.
Hosts:
Re
Two Brits Unpack America’s 250th Birthday + The Cultural Civil War
America’s 250th birthday is the talk of the nation. But the more important story might be what the milestone reveals about the fragile bargain between democracy and markets, and whether the republic can survive its own cultural divisions.
Host:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
Martin Wolf, Chief Economic
What Will the Fed Become Under Chair Kevin Warsh? + Greenspan's Legacy
In this episode of The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger W. Ferguson Jr. reflect on the legacy of recently deceased former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, and examine what may lie ahead for the Fed under its new chair Kevin Warsh.
Hosts:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Steven A. Tananba
"A Job Beats a Handout" + Why the World Bank Is Betting Everything on Employment
In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby and CFR President Michael Froman speak with former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and World Bank President Ajay Banga about the global jobs challenge facing millions of young people in emerging markets.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Michae
SpaceX Goes Public + What IPOs Tell Us About Capital Markets
The scale of the SpaceX IPO is dominating financial headlines, but the more important story might be what the sale reveals about the structure of modern capital markets, corporate governance, and the blurry line between public and private investing. This episode unpacks what the numbers actually show, why much of the popular narrative is overblown, and what investors should actually be paying atte
China’s $735B Trade Surplus + How Beijing Masks Its Holdings + The G7 Debates Global Imbalances
This episode unpacks why the trade and investment imbalances between the United States and China have grown to record levels despite years of pressure to correct them, and how the imbalanced system looks increasingly likely to collapse under its own weight.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterso
Japan Rearms + Guns vs. Butter + Global Defense Spending Boom
As governments around the world ramp up defense spending, a new era of rearmament is reshaping economies, markets, inflation, and politics. This episode examines Japan’s dramatic shift away from its postwar pacifist identity amid rising tensions with China, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and growing uncertainty around the global security role of the U.S.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A
Data Centers In Space? + Planet Labs CEO Talks ‘Large Earth Models’
AI and satellite imagery are quickly converging to create “planetary intelligence,” a new generation of systems capable of capturing and analyzing images of Earth in real time. This episode explores how the AI infrastructure race could move into orbit, with space-based data centers, falling launch costs, and “large Earth models” potentially transforming the global economy, geopolitics, and the fut
Trump-Xi + Mutually Assured Disruption + Boeing, Beef, and Beans
President Donald Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing for a high-stakes summit shaped by Iran war tensions, trade disputes, critical mineral flows, semiconductor controls, and an intensifying AI race. This episode breaks down the growing U.S.-China rivalry, the risks facing global markets and supply chains, and whether the world is entering a new era of economic fragmentation and techno
Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos?
Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced.
Hosts:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on
K-Shaped Economies + Affordability Crisis + Trump vs. Mamdani Populism
This episode unpacks the concept of a K-shaped economy, examines how AI, war, and climate shocks may be widening inequality within and between countries, and explains why the divide is so hard to measure. It also explores competing responses to the affordability crisis—from Trump’s to Mamdani’s—and asks if a more centrist path could offer better solutions.
Hosts:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fell
Is the Gulf Still the Capital of Capital? + How War Could Hurt America’s Tech Funding
This episode explores how the Gulf region transformed into a global “capital of capital,” and the risk of the Iran conflict disrupting that role. It examines the ripple effects on global markets, U.S. tech and AI investment, and the broader balance of economic power if Gulf capital starts turning inward to focus on defense.
Hosts:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, CFR
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul
The Hormuz Shock + Why the Fed is “On Hold”
Live from Washington, DC, this episode unpacks how war, AI, financial innovation, and global institutions are reshaping monetary policy, market stability, and the future of the international economic order.
Host:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Guest:
William C. Dudley, Chair, Bretton Woods Committee; Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New Yor
The Oppenheimer of AI + Mailbag Contest Winners
This episode unpacks cohost Sebastian Mallaby’s new book The Infinity Machine and answers audience questions on AI, dollar dominance, the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on midterm elections, and more.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Private Credit's Black Box + Why It's Not 2008 (But Still Risky)
This episode dives into how the opaque growth and structural risks in private credit, combined with global supply shocks and market stress spurred by the Iran war, are creating a uniquely fragile and unpredictable economic landscape.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Counci
U.S.-China AI Race Escalates + Chip Bans Aren’t Working + A Lesson From Nuclear Proliferation
This episode unpacks the evolving U.S.-China AI rivalry, the limits of technological export controls, and what’s really at stake as both countries race to shape the future of intelligence.
Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine!
Host:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Rel
Iran War Spirals + Oil Shocks Keep Coming + China’s Advantage
As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalates, global markets are absorbing the shocks: oil prices are swinging, inflation expectations are rising, and safe-haven assumptions are being tested. China, by contrast, is looking relatively resilient, buoyed by strategic energy reserves, diversified supply chains, and policy flexibility. This episode examines how the conflict is driving inflation, com
Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations” Turns 250 + Free Markets Face Off Against Industrial Policy
On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, this episode revisits a book that laid the foundations of modern economics and then considers the tensions between free markets and industrial policy today. It highlights the ways in which specialization and global trade remain powerful drivers of prosperity, reflecting Smith’s insight that self-interest can benefit society when shape
Iran War Ignites Oil-Shock Stagflation Fears + Who Really Controls the Energy Market?
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and Iran’s energy-producing neighbors have been dragged into the conflict. This episode looks at the spillovers from the resulting energy price shock and explores how structural shifts, including a surge in U.S. oil production, China’s emergence
The AI Bubble + The Productivity Paradox + India’s AI Summit
Is there an AI bubble, or just an OpenAI bubble? Markets remain focused on whether valuations can be justified by sufficiently fast revenue growth, while the real economy braces for AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and other disruptions. With global leaders and tech CEOs convening in India to debate AI governance, the stakes are rising fast. Credit markets, hiring data, and business sentiment co
U.S. Supreme Court Rules Against Trump’s Tariffs
In a 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the government’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), holding that the statute does not authorize a president to impose sweeping tariffs. In this breaking news episode, host Rebecca Patterson is joined by Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. trade representative, to unpack th
The “European Onion” + China, Brazil, and India Take On MAGA
European leaders are at an inflection point. After high-level meetings in Munich and Brussels, they must decide what role Europe will play in the unfolding new world order, politically and economically. Can China, India, and Brazil provide lessons on how to navigate the U.S. trade war? Can a “multi-speed” Europe with less and simpler regulation become a reality? As the world’s second-largest econo
Japan’s Heavy Metal PM + Political Threats to Markets + China’s Sad Horse
This episode examines the “Fragile Four” economies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France—and why politics is increasingly spilling into financial markets. After a long stretch where markets largely shrugged off political volatility, an “age of inflation” coupled with high debt, aging demographics, rising defense spending, and anxious populations across the Fragile Four are makin
Introducing The Spillover
How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior F
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