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The Spillover

Council on Foreign Relations 18 episodes Latest May 27, 2026

Each week, The Spillover traces the ripple effects of global events, exploring the intersection of policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. It helps listeners understand how critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world.

Episodes

SpaceX Goes Public + What IPOs Tell Us About Capital Markets Jun 10, 2026 2439 The scale of the SpaceX IPO is dominating financial headlines, but the more important story might be what the sale reveals about the structure of modern capital markets, corporate governance, and the blurry line between public and private investing. This episode unpacks what the numbers actually show, why much of the popular narrative is overblown, and what investors should actually be paying atte

China’s $735B Trade Surplus + How Beijing Masks Its Holdings + The G7 Debates Global Imbalances Jun 2, 2026 3401 This episode unpacks why the trade and investment imbalances between the United States and China have grown to record levels despite years of pressure to correct them, and how the imbalanced system looks increasingly likely to collapse under its own weight. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterso

Japan Rearms + Guns vs. Butter + Global Defense Spending Boom May 27, 2026 2623 As governments around the world ramp up defense spending, a new era of rearmament is reshaping economies, markets, inflation, and politics. This episode examines Japan’s dramatic shift away from its postwar pacifist identity amid rising tensions with China, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and growing uncertainty around the global security role of the U.S. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A

Data Centers In Space? + Planet Labs CEO Talks ‘Large Earth Models’ May 19, 2026 3408 AI and satellite imagery are quickly converging to create “planetary intelligence,” a new generation of systems capable of capturing and analyzing images of Earth in real time. This episode explores how the AI infrastructure race could move into orbit, with space-based data centers, falling launch costs, and “large Earth models” potentially transforming the global economy, geopolitics, and the fut

Trump-Xi + Mutually Assured Disruption + Boeing, Beef, and Beans May 12, 2026 3185 President Donald Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing for a high-stakes summit shaped by Iran war tensions, trade disputes, critical mineral flows, semiconductor controls, and an intensifying AI race. This episode breaks down the growing U.S.-China rivalry, the risks facing global markets and supply chains, and whether the world is entering a new era of economic fragmentation and techno

Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos? May 5, 2026 2768 Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on

K-Shaped Economies + Affordability Crisis + Trump vs. Mamdani Populism Apr 28, 2026 3080 This episode unpacks the concept of a K-shaped economy, examines how AI, war, and climate shocks may be widening inequality within and between countries, and explains why the divide is so hard to measure. It also explores competing responses to the affordability crisis—from Trump’s to Mamdani’s—and asks if a more centrist path could offer better solutions. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fell

Is the Gulf Still the Capital of Capital? + How War Could Hurt America’s Tech Funding Apr 22, 2026 2585 This episode explores how the Gulf region transformed into a global “capital of capital,” and the risk of the Iran conflict disrupting that role. It examines the ripple effects on global markets, U.S. tech and AI investment, and the broader balance of economic power if Gulf capital starts turning inward to focus on defense. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, CFR Sebastian Mallaby, Paul

The Hormuz Shock + Why the Fed is “On Hold” Apr 16, 2026 1787 Live from Washington, DC, this episode unpacks how war, AI, financial innovation, and global institutions are reshaping monetary policy, market stability, and the future of the international economic order. Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations Guest: William C. Dudley, Chair, Bretton Woods Committee; Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New Yor

The Oppenheimer of AI + Mailbag Contest Winners Apr 7, 2026 2555 This episode unpacks cohost Sebastian Mallaby’s new book The Infinity Machine and answers audience questions on AI, dollar dominance, the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on midterm elections, and more. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Private Credit's Black Box + Why It's Not 2008 (But Still Risky) Mar 31, 2026 2333 This episode dives into how the opaque growth and structural risks in private credit, combined with global supply shocks and market stress spurred by the Iran war, are creating a uniquely fragile and unpredictable economic landscape. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Counci

U.S.-China AI Race Escalates + Chip Bans Aren’t Working + A Lesson From Nuclear Proliferation Mar 25, 2026 3501 This episode unpacks the evolving U.S.-China AI rivalry, the limits of technological export controls, and what’s really at stake as both countries race to shape the future of intelligence. Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine! Host: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Rel

Iran War Spirals + Oil Shocks Keep Coming + China’s Advantage Mar 18, 2026 3277 As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalates, global markets are absorbing the shocks: oil prices are swinging, inflation expectations are rising, and safe-haven assumptions are being tested. China, by contrast, is looking relatively resilient, buoyed by strategic energy reserves, diversified supply chains, and policy flexibility. This episode examines how the conflict is driving inflation, com

Introducing The Spillover Mar 17, 2026 92 How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior F

Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations” Turns 250 + Free Markets Face Off Against Industrial Policy Mar 11, 2026 2963 On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, this episode revisits a book that laid the foundations of modern economics and then considers the tensions between free markets and industrial policy today. It highlights the ways in which specialization and global trade remain powerful drivers of prosperity, reflecting Smith’s insight that self-interest can benefit society when shape

Iran War Ignites Oil-Shock Stagflation Fears + Who Really Controls the Energy Market? Mar 4, 2026 2639 U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and Iran’s energy-producing neighbors have been dragged into the conflict. This episode looks at the spillovers from the resulting energy price shock and explores how structural shifts, including a surge in U.S. oil production, China’s emergence

The AI Bubble + The Productivity Paradox + India’s AI Summit Feb 26, 2026 3226 Is there an AI bubble, or just an OpenAI bubble? Markets remain focused on whether valuations can be justified by sufficiently fast revenue growth, while the real economy braces for AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and other disruptions. With global leaders and tech CEOs convening in India to debate AI governance, the stakes are rising fast. Credit markets, hiring data, and business sentiment co

U.S. Supreme Court Rules Against Trump’s Tariffs Feb 20, 2026 1138 In a 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the government’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), holding that the statute does not authorize a president to impose sweeping tariffs. In this breaking news episode, host Rebecca Patterson is joined by Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. trade representative, to unpack th

The “European Onion” + China, Brazil, and India Take On MAGA Feb 18, 2026 2207 European leaders are at an inflection point. After high-level meetings in Munich and Brussels, they must decide what role Europe will play in the unfolding new world order, politically and economically. Can China, India, and Brazil provide lessons on how to navigate the U.S. trade war? Can a “multi-speed” Europe with less and simpler regulation become a reality? As the world’s second-largest econo

Japan’s Heavy Metal PM + Political Threats to Markets + China’s Sad Horse Feb 12, 2026 2301 This episode examines the “Fragile Four” economies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France—and why politics is increasingly spilling into financial markets. After a long stretch where markets largely shrugged off political volatility, an “age of inflation” coupled with high debt, aging demographics, rising defense spending, and anxious populations across the Fragile Four are makin

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