Politics Politics Politics
Justin Robert Young offers unbiased political analysis, focusing on who will win elections rather than telling listeners what to think. The podcast covers US politics with a data-driven approach.
Episodes
Happy Birthday America, You Absolute Classic. The Fate of the Democratic Party (with Jeff Maurer)
We talk all the time about how America is a very young country, and that’s true when you compare us to Europe, Africa, and Asia, where countries are built around lineages, ethnic majorities, and religions. But not America. We’re a melting pot. We’re risk takers. It’s woven into the fabric of the United States that no matter where you are right now, tomorrow can be better than today was, and your l
Birthright Citizenship Survives! How America's 250th Birthday Celebration is Going (with Kevin Ryan)
The Supreme Court wrapped up its term with three major decisions, and one surprise that turned out not to be a surprise after all. NPR briefly published a report that suggested Justice Samuel Alito was retiring, which would have handed Donald Trump another Supreme Court appointment, but that story was pulled, leaving us to wonder when that announcement might finally land.The actual rulings were si
A Tale of Two Blockades! What the Hell is Going On in the UK? (with Tom Merritt)
What should have been a bipartisan housing bill touting affordability has instead become a fight over the Save America Act. Representative Anna Paulina Luna is leading a House conservative blockade, freezing routine procedural votes until the Senate takes up the Trump-backed elections bill. The problem is that the Senate has no path forward. The bill doesn’t have the votes, and the Senate isn’t ab
JEFFRIES vs. MAMDANI! NY-12 Heats Up the House! Digging Into the Anthropic Debacle (with Andrew Mayne)
All eyes are on New York. The congressional primaries happen tonight, and in a city this Democratic, many of these races will effectively decide who heads to Congress. What I’m watching is a battle between Hakeem Jeffries and Zohran Mamdani. Mamdani is flexing. We’re going to see exactly how much of a kingmaker he is in New York City. Jeffries is backing incumbents like Dan Goldman and Adriano Esp
Can Republicans Hold the House? Checking In with Midterm Primaries (with Kirk Bado)
Republicans are now arguing that their aggressive mid-decade redistricting campaign could preserve their House majority even in an environment where history is usually not on their side. According to a new memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee, newly redrawn maps have reduced the number of competitive districts and forced Democrats to compete in more Republican-leaning territor
A Memorandum of Misunderstanding? Anthropic vs. the US Government, Round Two (with Maria Curi)
The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was apparently signed over the weekend, but the text remains a mystery to most. Donald Trump says he’ll release it and even read it himself so nobody can misunderstand it. If it’s such good news, though, why not put it out right now? Israel isn’t a fan of it, nor are those who believe we’ve abandoned the Iranian people by making a
Is Our Iran Deal Groundhog Day Almost Over? Platner, LA's Mayor, and More (with Karol Markowicz)
The situation with Iran continues to feel like Groundhog Day, except this time, believe it or not, there may actually be movement.Earlier this week, I mentioned that I had heard from people in the know that the United States military was coiled to strike Iran and was looking for either provocation or justification to resume major military activity. That appeared to happen when Iran shot down an Ap
It's Time to Fix How California Counts Votes. Does Platner Still Have a Shot? (with Bill Scher)
California is inviting questions about its elections because of a problem that is entirely solvable: the state takes too long to count ballots. This LA mayoral race is just the latest example.Let’s look at what happened. On election night, Karen Bass was at 30 percent of the vote. Spencer Pratt was at 28 percent. Nithya Raman was around 20 percent. Every model from respected vote-modeling people t
The Graham Platner Situation Gets WORSE! Texas Senate Races and DC Bar Drama (with Reese Gorman)
A new Graham Platner story dropped today, and it answers one question while opening about a dozen others. The reporting centers on an ex-girlfriend from his time in Washington who describes behavior that she says included being yanked out of cabs, shaken by the shoulders, blocked from leaving rooms, and subjected to bizarre conversations about violence and power. The Platner campaign does not appe
Is Platner Done? All the Antics of Canadian Parliament (with Evan Scrimshaw and Charlie Feldman)
The Trump administration is backing away from a planned $1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund after a revolt from Republicans on Capitol Hill. The fund, tied to a settlement and intended to be administered by the Justice Department, had drawn criticism as a potential slush fund that could benefit Trump allies prosecuted under the Biden administration. White House officials told GOP leaders they wer
Iran Proposal BREAKDOWN. Have We Reached the End of All Podcasts? (with Michael Tracey)
We currently have a reported 60-day framework on the table between the United States and Iran that would temporarily extend the current ceasefire dynamics and create space for renewed nuclear negotiations. To be clear, it’s not a breakthrough deal. This feels like a pressure valve built to prevent escalation from snapping back while both sides decide whether they can actually land something bigger
FINAL Texas Predictions! Exploring the Uncanny Valley of AI Ads (with Brian Brushwood)
Texas Republicans are about to answer a question that has been hanging over the party since 2024: is partial loyalty to Trump enough anymore, or do you either become fully absorbed into MAGA or get pushed out entirely? Because both John Cornyn and Chip Roy represent different versions of Republicanism that tried, in different ways, to coexist with Trump without completely surrendering to him. And
The DNC Autopsy RISES! How Political Outsiders are Dominating the Midterms (with Chris Cillizza)
The Democratic Party finally released its 2024 autopsy and somehow managed to make the whole situation look even worse. Not because the conclusions were devastating. Honestly, the conclusions barely mattered. The thing itself apparently reads like garbage. Wrong facts, shallow sourcing, no real accountability structure, no serious attempt to interrogate the deeper failures of the campaign. Ken Mar
Kentucky's Crazy Republican Primary Ads! Is Iran Settling in for the Long Haul? (with Ryan McBeth)
Kentucky’s Republican primary out of its 4th District has turned into the most expensive House primary in American history, and it doesn’t take a detective to tell where the money went. No, not into field operations. Not into policy. Not even into persuasion. It went into some of the most deranged political advertisements I have ever seen. Thirty-two million dollars dumped into a district where ba
Why Vance vs. Rubio 2028 Isn't Real! How AI Will Impact Midterms and Beyond (with Katie Harbath)
The obsession with a hypothetical JD Vance versus Marco Rubio showdown for 2028 says a lot more about the Republican fascination with palace intrigue than it does about actual political reality. Trump himself clearly enjoys stirring the pot, whether he’s privately asking allies which one they prefer or turning a public event into a literal applause contest. To be fair, both men have handled the aw
Iran War Brings BIG Inflation. Is the UK Already in Need of Another PM? (with Stella Tsantekidou)
Trump’s trip to China is happening at the exact moment his most persistent political vulnerability is becoming impossible to ignore: the economy.Inflation has ticked up to 3.8% year over year, gas prices are rising again, and the White House is leaning on a familiar argument — to the Biden administration, at least — that the pressure is temporary. At the same time, instability in the Strait of Hor
The Best (and Worst) Bets on Midterm Races (with Evan Scrimshaw)
The Trump administration is looking for a new ICE director, which at this point might qualify as one of the least appealing jobs in American politics. Todd Lyons is heading for the private sector at the end of the month, and whoever replaces him is walking straight into a political minefield. ICE is under pressure from every direction at once, criticism over aggressive raids, backlash tied to the
Graham Platner's Reddit Problems Return! AI, Iran, and the Economy (with J.D. Durkin)
Graham Plattner’s campaign is running into the kind of problem that feels very 2026, even if the source material is more than a decade old. His Reddit history, which might have once been shrugged off as niche internet noise, now looks like a liability with real teeth. The difference is not just that the posts exist, it’s how easily they can be repackaged. With AI tools, those old comments are no l
MAINE MADNESS! Why Fixing the Supreme Court Means Fixing Congress (with Michael Cohen and Sarah Isgur)
Janet Mills’ Senate bid in Maine is effectively over — not that it really got off the ground in the first place. She was supposed to be the top-tier recruit, the popular governor-turned-candidate Chuck Schumer believed could finally take down Susan Collins in a state that otherwise leans blue. Instead, she spent the entire race trailing Graham Plattner who, on paper, should’ve been far easier to b
Florida Goes Hard on Redistricting! What the Correspondents' Dinner Was Really Like (with Kirk Bado)
Florida’s new congressional map is out, and the more I look at it, the more it feels like Republicans are trying to push right up against the edge of what is politically and legally possible. The goal is obvious: take a delegation that used to split closer to 20 to 8 and force it into a 24 to 4 map. The way they get there is not subtle. It is classic packing and cracking, cramming Democrats into a
Another Assassination Attempt Ends the White House Correspondents' Dinner Early
An assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner turned what is usually a choreographed, slightly self-congratulatory night into something much more serious, very quickly. I had been at the Washington Hilton earlier, and what stood out in retrospect was how ordinary the setup felt. Security was clearly tight around the ballroom itself, but the rest of the hotel operated like a no
Is Florida the Last Redistricting Hope? Donald Trump's Presidential Permanence (with Gabe Fleisher)
Republicans are running out of places to redraw the map, and Florida is quickly becoming their last real shot to claw back seats before the midterms. The pressure is now squarely on Ron DeSantis to deliver a map that could net a handful of gains, but even inside the party there is real disagreement about whether that is possible. The risk is not just that the effort fails, but that it backfires, t
Congress Cleans House! The Future of Tech, Politics, and AI (with Tom Merritt)
Congress is in the middle of a rare moment where members are actually being forced out, and it is happening on both sides at once. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales are already gone, both stepping down before they could be expelled, and now the pressure is shifting to others who are caught up in their own scandals. It is not subtle. This is a full blown house cleaning, and it is moving faster than C
Trump vs. The Pope! The Scandal That Threatens Democratic Fundraising (with Kevin Ryan and Dave Levinthal)
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire after talks in Washington, with President Donald Trump saying it would take effect at 5 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday. He said he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, and plans to bring both to the White House for what he called a major step in relations between the two countries.The agreement is supp
Eric Swalwell's Dramatic Fall from Grace (with Juliegrace Brufke)
The fall of Eric Swalwell feels less about the details of any single allegation and more about how quickly everything around him collapsed once those allegations hit. The shift is immediate. He goes from being a serious political figure, running for governor and active in Congress, to someone who is suddenly on the defensive, apologizing for “mistakes in judgment” while also denying the most serio
The Ceasefire That Isn't a Ceasefire and the Mistaken Assumptions of the IRGC (with Zineb Riboua)
Just how absurd does the word ceasefire sounds when nobody actually stops firing? We’re calling it a ceasefire, we are acting like it is a ceasefire, but the reality on the ground does not match the label. Missiles are still being launched, ships are still being threatened, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down despite whatever was signed on paper.That disconnect makes me question what
Trump Threatens Iran's "Whole Civilization." DHS Shutdown Winners and Losers (With Kirk Bado)
Trump’s borderline-genocidal threats towards Iran from Tuesday morning are no doubt unsettling — and depending on whether this war keeps escalating after this episode is published, “unsettling” could be an understatement. The idea that civilization might be over feels hyperbolic, but it captures the uncertainty of the moment. We are sitting here waiting on a deadline tied to Iran, and even before
Pam Bondi OUT as Attorney General. How Memes are Impacting the Iran War (with Jason Levin)
Pam Bondi is out as attorney general, and even though the official line is that she is moving on to something else, it really feels like a firing that had been building for a while. This is the first moment in this version of the administration where it feels less controlled and more like the old pattern, where someone becomes a liability and is shown the door.Looking back at her tenure, it’s hard
Can Trump Summon Congress to DC? Why the Military Community is Rosy on Iran (with Riley Blanton)
On the surface, the question of whether Donald Trump can actually force Congress back to Washington to deal with the DHS shutdown sounds simple and dramatic. The Senate is gone, the House is gone, and yet, the problem is sitting there unresolved. Trump, Mike Johnson, and some Republicans are saying they should come back and fix it. The reality is a lot less cinematic.Right now, the Senate is techn
This DHS Shutdown Isn't Ending Anytime Soon. Exploring the AI Framework (with Andy Beach)
As I recorded this episode, the Department of Homeland Security has been unfunded for more than 40 days, and the consequences are no longer abstract. TSA lines are stretching into hours at major airports, and with spring break and Easter travel ramping up, the strain is only getting worse.What stands out to me is the timing. The Senate appears ready to leave town for a two-week recess without reso
Is This the Path to Reopening DHS? The DC Gossip Outlet You Must Follow (with Juliegrace Brufke)
The push to resolve the Department of Homeland Security shutdown through reconciliation is running into a hard reality in the Senate. What looks like a procedural workaround is, in practice, a much narrower path than many Republicans are publicly suggesting.At first glance, the strategy sounds clean. Fund most of DHS through a bipartisan deal, then use reconciliation to push through the rest, spec
The 2026 Senate Draft! (with Evan Scrimshaw and Ryan Jakubowski)
The Iran war is entering a more dangerous phase, not because of troop movements, but because energy infrastructure is now a target and the price tag is starting to match the escalation. At the same time, artificial intelligence is emerging as the next political battlefield, shaping both policy debates and the broader information environment.What stood out to me immediately is how the war is evolvi
The Modern Rebirth of Yellow Journalism. Talking Paxton, Cornyn, and Oklahoma (with Reese Gorman)
One of the most striking developments during the Iran war has been the reappearance of something that used to define American media a century ago: yellow journalism. Historically, the term referred to sensationalized reporting that prioritized outrage and emotion over accuracy, often using thin sourcing and dramatic narratives to mobilize public opinion. The Spanish–American War, famously fueled b
A Deep Dive Into All Things Iran War. Plus, Oscar Nominee Picks (with Ryan McBeth and Jada Yuan)
Washington state Democrats have passed a new 9.9 percent income tax on millionaires, the first income tax in the state’s history. The measure now heads to the governor’s desk and represents a major shift in a state long known for its lack of personal income taxes.But the policy debate is already colliding with economic reality. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz has announced he is relocating to
The Dumb State of Iran Discourse. Scoping Out Trump's Wartime Deadlines (with Kirk Bado)
I’ve reached a point where the marketplace of ideas feels broken. The conversation around the Iran war, especially the discussion about oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz, has been less about understanding events and more about reacting to every twitch in the market.This realization hit me last weekend when I watched otherwise smart commentators react breathlessly to oil futures spiking. Writers
Kristi Noem OUT at DHS. The Science of Second Chances in Criminal Justice (with Jennifer Doleac)
I didn’t expect the day’s biggest story to land before the show even got rolling, but the first major cabinet domino of the Trump administration has finally fallen. Kristi Noem is out as Secretary of Homeland Security.The immediate cause appears to be a congressional hearing exchange that went sideways. During testimony before Sen. John Kennedy, Noem said that a $200 million ad campaign — one that
Final Texas Primary Predictions! Pentagon vs. Anthropic Explained. The False Front of Executive Actions (with Kenneth Lowande)
The fight between Anthropic and the Pentagon goes deeper than a simple contract dispute. In some ways, it’s the culmination of a tech rivalry that’s been simmering since the early days of OpenAI.Anthropic wasn’t some scrappy outsider that stumbled into national security. It’d already had top secret clearance, working with the CIA for years, and had seemingly made peace with the idea that its model
War with Iran. What Happened and What's Next?
The United States is now in open conflict with Iran after a joint U.S.–Israeli operation killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening hours of what the White House has dubbed Operation Epic Fury. The geopolitical aftershocks are already reshaping the Middle East, and could upend the fate of the midterms come November.Over the weekend, American and Israeli forces launched a coordinated campaig
Midterms Ads are Turning NASTY. Decoding the Epstein Files Fallout (with Kevin Ryan)
We are officially in the phase of a campaign where decency gets tossed aside and the opposition research file is emptied directly into a 30-second spot.One local ad targeting Cook County Commissioner Samantha Steele opens with footage from her DUI arrest and the now-infamous line, “I’m an elected official.” The ad’s structure is ruthlessly efficient. Lead with the footage. Transition from self-imp
BREAKING: Details on Rep. Tony Gonzales Scandal. Could It Flip the House? (with Juliegrace Brufke)
I sat down with Capitol Hill reporter Juliegrace Brufke to unpack the explosive allegations surrounding Rep. Tony Gonzalez and his reported relationship with a former district staffer, whose tragic death last year has sent shockwaves through Texas politics and beyond. We walk through the timeline of the affair, the emergence of explicit text messages, claims of coercion, the husband’s response, an
Is Dem Fundraising in Trouble? Talking Republican Vibe-cession (w/ Dave Levinthal & Karol Markowicz)
President Trump says he will decide within 10 to 15 days whether to continue diplomatic efforts with Iran or authorize military action. On paper, talks in Geneva have been described as “positive.” In practice, the military posture tells a more urgent story. Significant naval assets are in place, including carrier strike groups positioned to project air power quickly.What stands out is the operatio
Is a Deal with Iran Happening? Predicting the Primary Predictors (with Will Sattelberg)
The Iran situation remains murky. President Trump says he will be indirectly involved in renewed nuclear talks in Geneva, describing them as “very important,” while simultaneously ordering a significant military buildup in the Persian Gulf. A second aircraft carrier. Additional F-35s. Diplomacy and deterrence running in parallel.I am genuinely unsure what the endgame is here. Is this Venezuela-sty
Why the Talking Filibuster Revival is DOA. The Epstein Files are Tearing the UK Apart (with Stella Tsantekidou)
Over the past couple of weeks, Senate Republicans have come up with this plan to bring back the talking filibuster, all in an effort to pass the SAVE America Act. On paper, it is clever. Force Democrats to physically hold the floor to block voter ID legislation that polls as an 80-20 issue. Make them read the phone book. Make them look unserious. Put Jon Ossoff and other swing-state Democrats on t
Texas Senate Primary Gets SPICY. How Will AI Define the Midterms and Beyond? (with Tom Merritt)
Jasmine Crockett has a new ad, and it’s everything you’d expect out of 2026 so far. It’s a TV ad utilizing an anime style — and potentially some AI. It is inventive, loud, and undeniably designed to cut through clutter. In a vacuum, it might even be smart. Anime specifically has real cultural traction, especially with younger and Black voters, and the ad signals energy in a race where attention is
The Clintons Strike Back! Is This a Vibes Bankruptcy for DC? (with Kirk Bado)
The renewed focus on Jeffrey Epstein has pulled Bill and Hillary Clinton back into a political posture they know better than almost anyone. Hillary Clinton’s decision to publicly challenge House Oversight Chair James Comer and call for a live, televised hearing was not defensive or impulsive. It was classic Clinton strategy. When scrutiny becomes unavoidable, they prefer exposure on their own term
Clintons Will Testify in DC as DRAMA Hits the Texas Primaries (with Michael Cohen)
Texas has found itself in the spotlight over the past few days, and for pretty interesting reasons at that. First, we saw a Texas special election that flipped a deeply Republican district at the state level. In a seat Donald Trump carried by roughly 17 points, Democrats managed to pull off a low-turnout win. This was not a wave election, and pretending otherwise does not help anyone. Special elec
What Do Dems Want After Minneapolis? A Deep Dive into CBS and Modern Media (with Bill Scher and Chris Cillizza)
In the immediate aftermath of the fatal ICE shooting in Minneapolis, Senate Democrats are attempting to translate outrage into leverage. After a closed-door caucus, they emerged unified around a set of concrete demands tied to Homeland Security funding: tighter warrant requirements, bans on agents wearing masks, mandatory body cameras, visible identification, and a uniform code of conduct with ind
What We Know About the Minneapolis Fallout. Talking Canada, Carney, and Midterms (with Evan Scrimshaw)
The killing of Alex Pretti is different from the earlier death of Renee Good in ways that matter politically and institutionally. The video is clearer, the optics are harsher, and the official response has been far less defensible. In this case, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem immediately claimed Pretti brandished a weapon and intended to inflict maximum harm on officers. There is no evide
Venezuela, Iran, and What Russia Wants Out of Ukraine (with Ryan McBeth)
I went back and watched Donald Trump’s speech at Davos after the reaction to it spiraled into calls for the 25th Amendment. Having seen it in full, I have to say, that response struck me as pretty overstated. The speech was odd, repetitive, and occasionally sloppy, but it was also entirely familiar. Trump no longer has multiple registers. He speaks the same way at Davos that he does in Greensboro,
What the Hell is Happening with Greenland? A Pre-Midterms Congressional Vibe Check (with Kirk Bado and Juliegrace Brufke)
The Greenland situation continues to look more theatrical than existential. To me, leaked private messages from Emmanuel Macron, public frustration from Donald Trump, and hurried diplomatic calls ahead of Davos all point to the same conclusion: this is pressure politics playing out in real time. Trump’s irritation appears rooted less in Greenland itself and more in confusion over European military
Let's Talk All About Immigration (with Anna Gorisch)
The resignation of Madison Sheahan, an ICE deputy director to run for Congress might look like a routine political move, but it says more about the internal state of immigration enforcement than any press release. ICE is increasingly being pulled between two competing instincts: governing and performing. Tom Homan represents the former, focused on operational reality and risk management. Kristi No
Fed Subpoena Shocker! How Much Oil Reinvestment Does Venezuela Need to Succeed? (with Al Brushwood)
The week began with a borderline farcical incident in Greenland, where organizers of a traditional dog sled race condemned what they viewed as inappropriate political pressure after an invitation was extended to a U.S. political figure linked to Donald Trump’s ambitions toward the island. The Trump administration has clearly dialed back its more provocative rhetoric on Greenland, moving away from
Was Jasmine Crockett Gaslit Into Running? Why Dems Need to Stay on X (with Reese Gorman and Stella Tsantekidou)
The most consequential story remains Iran, where protests appear to be growing despite the regime shutting down the internet, a move that historically precedes lethal force. The scale of the demonstrations is difficult to verify, but the videos that do emerge suggest a population no longer content to absorb repression quietly. It is hard to separate this moment from the cascading effects of Octobe
Tim Walz Shocker in Minnesota! Making Sense of the Iranian Protests (with Kirk Bado and Andrew Zarian)
Maduro in Manhattan and the Legal Test AheadFormer Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty this week in federal court in Manhattan to sweeping charges that include narco terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses. Maduro, who was captured by U.S. forces in Caracas, declared himself innocent and insisted he remains Venezuela’s legitima
Maduro Arrested in Venezuela
The United States’ decision to seize Nicolás Maduro and bring him to New York marks one of the most dramatic assertions of American power in the Western Hemisphere in decades. In this episode, I focused on what actually happened, why it happened now, and what it signals about how the Trump administration views regime change, legality, and leverage.The facts, as we know them, are stark. In a rapid
2025 Year in Review (with Kevin Ryan)
Topics discussed, by month:JanuaryThe year opened with Donald Trump’s second inauguration and a rapid slate of executive actions, including a controversial move that effectively kept TikTok alive after a brief shutdown. The ceremony highlighted a conspicuous alliance between Trump and major tech figures — framed as an early signal of an AI-driven, business-friendly Trump 2.0 — alongside cultural f
Px3 LIVE Q&A: The Future of MAGA, Somali Fraud, AI, and More!
With the Sunday shows having pre-recorded the bulk of their conversations and the flow of news quieting down for the holidays, Justin sat down to answer your questions on a livestream held this past Sunday afternoon. Topics include: AI, the future of MAGA, journalism, politeness in politics, Marjorie Taylor Greene, (not) the Steelers-Browns game, and much more.Politics Politics Politics is a reade
Second Batch of Epstein Files Drops. When Does a President Become a Lame Duck? (with Tevi Troy)
The Epstein files keep coming out, and instead of clarity, they are producing something far messier: suspicion without resolution and outrage without proof.What we are seeing now is not the mythical document many people imagine, a clean list pairing powerful men with specific criminal acts. That list does not exist. What exists are FBI files and grand jury materials filled with allegations, some c
Trump's Big Affordability Speech. Empathy in the Digital Political Age (with Brian Brushwood)
Donald Trump’s primetime address this week was far less dramatic than advertised, but far more revealing than it looked at first glance. Stripped of the rumors and speculation, the speech functioned as a quiet reset on the issue that matters most to his presidency: the economy.Going into the address, expectations were wildly inflated. Cable chatter and online speculation had convinced many people
Jobs Report Brings Mixed News. Suzie Wiles' Wild Vanity Fair Interview (with Kirk Bado)
On Tuesday, a sprawling two-part Vanity Fair piece built from more than a dozen interviews with Susie Wiles, President Trump’s chief of staff, dropped online. It is, without exaggeration, one of the most revealing portraits of an active White House power broker I can remember. Wiles describes Trump as having an “alcoholic’s personality,” a striking characterization given his lifelong teetotalism.
Indiana Redistricting DEAD. Does the WH Press Corps Need to Change? (with Matt Laslo)
The Senate’s vote to extend enhanced ACA subsidies was the clearest sign yet that congressional Republicans are fracturing as they head toward the midterms. Four GOP senators — Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Dan Sullivan, and Josh Hawley — joined Democrats to back a three-year extension. The measure failed, but the defectors matter. Two are facing reelection in 2026. All four have been pressured b
Texas Shake-up: Crocket IN, Allred OUT! How Good Will 2026 Be For The Dems? (with Bill Scher)
Jasmine Crockett’s launch ad did exactly what it was designed to do: dominate the conversation. It’s a sparse spot — just Donald Trump’s voice calling her “low IQ” while she slowly turns to camera and smiles—but the message is unmistakable. She’s positioning herself as the fighter, the foil to Trump, the progressive star ready-made for the national stage. Whether you think the ad is brilliant, asi
January 6th Pipe Bomber Arrested? The Great 2026 Primary Draft (with Evan Scrimshaw)
I’ve long found the January 6 pipe bombs case particularly frustrating. Too serious to be forgotten, too mysterious to be ignored, we’ve had no answers for nearly five years. And now, at long last, we have an arrest.The alleged bomber, Brian Cole Jr., faces federal explosive-device charges that could carry up to 20 years apiece. Court documents describe receipts, phone pings, and cameras placing h
Tennessee Special Election Explainer! Are House Members Facing Impending Dread? (with Andrew Heaton)
The Tennessee 7th District special election is no ordinary off-calendar contest. It is a rare moment when a deeply red seat, long considered immovable, has become a stress test for the political environment itself. Before the results are spun beyond recognition, here is how I see the race and why its outcome — whatever it is — matters far more than who wins.Tennessee’s 7th District is not supposed
Marjorie Taylor Greene's Crazy Resignation! Picking Top 2028 Democratic Hopefuls (with Gloria Young)
There’s no two ways about it — Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation came as a shock. She’s leaving Congress at the start of the year, which means Republicans will immediately lose a vote they absolutely cannot spare. Governor Brian Kemp now has to call a special election, and even if he moves at the fastest pace legally possible, Georgia’s replacement likely won’t arrive until April or May. At tha
Trump's Rough Approval Ratings. The Ups and Downs of Our Economy (with JD Durkin)
Donald Trump’s approval ratings have entered their roughest stretch of his second term, with three separate polls showing him hitting new lows after months of a seemingly bulletproof floor.The pattern itself is not unusual. Presidents in their second term often experience a dip once the early burst of post-inaugural goodwill fades. But Trump’s decline is sharper than expected, sliding from the mid
The Epstein Files Are Coming. How Politics is Adjusting to the AI Age (with Tom Merritt)
I came back from the UK expecting to ease into the week, and instead I walked straight into one of the wildest legislative twists I have seen in years. The Epstein files bill (HR 4405) cleared the House by way of a discharge petition and did so with only a single vote against it. I’ll admit — did not take this seriously when it first appeared. I assumed it would stall in committee or die somewhere
The Winners and Losers of This Shutdown Fight (with Kirk Bado)
We’ve got ourselves a good old-fashioned legislative brawl over hemp. The Senate just shut down Rand Paul’s amendment that tried to strip out restrictions on intoxicating hemp products from the new government funding deal. This is the kind of hemp that doesn’t quite fall under marijuana, the THCA and Delta-9 stuff that’s skirted federal legality thanks to a 2018 farm bill maneuver. Paul, joined by
Is This Shutdown Over?! Trump's Economy Makes Noise. Gavin's Victory Lap.
It looks like the longest shutdown in American history is on the verge of finally reaching its conclusion — and let’s be honest, it’s ending exactly how these things always end. The Democrats didn’t get what they wanted, and now everyone’s pretending this was the plan all along.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming
Do The Republicans Have a Problem? STOCK Act Violations and Dark Money (with Dave Levinthal)
It’s been building for weeks, but after this week’s election results, Republican infighting has officially hit a fever pitch.It’s like any anxious period in life, the kind where you don’t even realize something big is coming until you look back on it in hindsight. Over the past two weeks conservative movement has quietly been eating itself alive with a fight that, on the surface, was about Tucker
Blue Wave! Thoughts on Virginia, New Jersey, NYC, and More
Well, what a night that was.The 2025 off-year election came and went, and I don’t think anybody on the Republican side was quite ready for how hard it hit. I expected Virginia to go blue — I didn’t expect it to be a total decimation. Abigail Spanberger didn’t just win, she boat-raced it, besting Winsome Earle-Seares by a whopping 14 points. That momentum was even enough to carry Jay Jones, dogged
A First-Hand Look at the Shutdown That Won't End (with Andrew Heaton)
I’ve seen my fair share of shutdowns over the years. Loud ones, quiet ones, dumb ones, strategic ones. But this one? This is just sad.I spent the day on Capitol Hill talking to anyone who would meet with me, bouncing between offices, looking to understand how close we are to any kind of resolution, and the mood is absolutely lifeless. Nobody knows what they want, and nobody’s talking to each other
Is Trump's China Trade Deal a Disappointment? Digging Into the Shutdown Stalemate (with Gabe Fleisher)
Trump and Xi finally sat down for the first in-person meeting of this new administration, and I won’t lie — there was a lot of hype going into this one. There were whispers about a grand bargain, even murmurs of a complete game-changer announcement. Maybe China would distance itself from Russia. Maybe there’d be some kind of century-defining move on Taiwan. Earlier this week, anything seemed possi
FINAL 2025 Election Predictions! Understanding Argentina's Libertarian Revolution (with Austin Padgett)
We’re just about a week out from Election Day, and I have to say, this is what I live for. These are the kind of stories that really scratch the itch for anybody who loves the game of politics as much as I do. We’ve got real contests, real dollars behind them, and actual electoral stakes. Yes, I know it’s not a presidential year, but this is the sandbox where some serious groundwork gets laid. And
MORE Graham Platner Oppo! What's George Santos Up To After Prison? (with Juliegrace Brufke)
This Graham Platner saga just keeps delivering. Every time I think we’ve hit the ceiling on oppo drops, the elevator dings and we’re in a whole new suite of controversy. It’s not that the content was entirely new in tone. We’ve already seen him refer to himself as an Antifa supersoldier and admit to having an SS tattoo (which, to his credit, he covered up). But the latest batch of Reddit posts tha
Is Graham Platner Already Done in Maine? Shame and the Internet (with Josh Jennings and Andrew Heaton
It’s not every day that the most interesting story in American politics is a Senate primary in Maine, but here we are. This race, at least for now, has everything: a populist outsider, a messy internal fight, a supposedly safe Democrat, and a very unfortunate tattoo. If the Democrats blow a winnable seat in 2026, you can probably trace it back to this moment, and to one name: Graham Platner.Platne
A Radical Take on Reshaping the House. Breaking Down the Gaza Peace Deal (with Tom Joseph and Ryan McBeth)
Trump is once again talking about Vladimir Putin — this time setting up a meeting in Budapest to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. That’s according to Trump himself, who said the two agreed on a phone call to meet, and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other U.S. officials would begin prep meetings with their Russian counterparts. No date has been set, but Trump described the call as produc
Are the Democrats Blowing It in Virginia? (with Kirk Bado)
We’ve officially entered the phase of the shutdown where things stop being polite and start getting real. Missed paychecks are happening this week for federal employees, and while everyone knows they’ll eventually get paid, it doesn’t matter. Missing a paycheck now still hurts. It gets gritty fast. Both parties are struggling to manage this moment, and honestly, neither of them is very good at wha
Who Deserves Credit For This Gaza Peace Deal? The World Of Foreign Influence (with Kenneth Vogel)
A conversation with friend of the show Will Harris got my wheels turning. He pointed out something he was seeing in the UK press — Trump getting credit for what many are calling Biden’s Gaza peace deal. And yeah, I had missed that particular discourse, but it didn’t take long to see that the split wasn’t just overseas. It’s right here too. Some are arguing that the framework for this agreement was
Gaza War Is Over?
Ceasefire in GazaPresident Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, marking the beginning of a multi-phase peace process. The first phase slated to begin Monday includes the release of 20 hostages, a halt to active fighting, and Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza. Hamas is expected to return the remains of deceased hostages as part of the deal.The agreement, brokered with th
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