Eye On The Market

Semiquincententacles Jun 23, 2026 2089 Semiquincententacles: The US grip on markets on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence Behold the Aquilaceph, half-bald eagle and half-octopus. On the semiquincentennial 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence, this imaginary beast is a metaphor for the continued US grip on financial markets. In this special issue we look at the details: US reserve currency status

Home Alone: inflation and the new Fed chair; investing in China’s AI ecosystem; Prediction markets May 26, 2026 1636 The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McCallister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White House. Also: investing in China’s home-grown AI ecosystem, and the predation in prediction markets. Watch the video

Abandon Ship! May 4, 2026 1843 Abandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update, Gulf State pipe dream, Congressional redistricting and Mythos update Summary: Despite improving US leading indicators and economic/stock market resilience, GOP House members are abandoning ship at a record pace. The midterm challenges for the GOP include dec

Salem’s Lot: Gulf War update; the Purge of senior US military officers; a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream Apr 6, 2026 1097 Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and their relevance to US military options, the proposed Iranian toll on the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per payload of asymmetric warfare and our commodity price tracker. Also: the history of Presidential firings of senior US military o

Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026 Mar 3, 2026 2383 Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives,

Supply and The Mam Feb 5, 2026 1516 New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960. Watch the video

Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights Jan 1, 2026 2149 In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits. View video here

The Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review Dec 2, 2025 2132 On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago. View video here

The winter of our discontent: generative AI disrupts the entertainment industry content moat Nov 5, 2025 1437 While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI. This month’s Eye on the Market looks at the rapidly shifting fortunes in legacy cable/broadcast shares vs streaming, the rise of social media as a platform for consuming all forms of content, rising acceptance of user-generated co

Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks Oct 16, 2025 1266 Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, it’s a fill-in-the-blank exercise regarding the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on growth, the impact of Chinese critical mineral export restrictions, Oracle’s debt levels and borrowing capacity, central bank gold reserves and the gender bala

The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack Sep 24, 2025 1627 In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of TSMC and how many countries support national champions via industrial policy; efforts in China to reduce excess capacity and consequences for equity investors; crime and municipal solvency in Chicago and Illinois; how tight net new equity supply has b

Fair Shakes Sep 2, 2025 2005 Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the Census and the balance in the US House of Representatives. View video here

Summer mailbag Jul 29, 2025 2592 Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag. View video here

Time Flies: Twenty Years of Eye on the Market Jul 9, 2025 728 Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past. Explore our insights

"OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and presidential break-ups Jul 3, 2025 1237 Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits. Why would lightly regulated stablecoins be any different? View video here

Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill May 27, 2025 989 A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn. View video here

Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming May 13, 2025 1789 With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began. View video here

Dogespierre Has Left The Building: DOGE’s impact on US government spending; Spanish Power outage; Trump Tracker May 1, 2025 1567 Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants. With Dogespierre now stepping back to spend more time on his core businesses, we take an early look at DOGE’s impact on US government spending, the likely overestimation of estimated savings, negative fiscal feedback lo

Redacted Apr 2, 2025 780 Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions. View video here

Fifty Days of Grey Mar 12, 2025 1087 Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for

Heliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appear Mar 4, 2025 1198 Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy co

From Here to Eternity Feb 13, 2025 630 From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump polici

Inauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders Jan 21, 2025 1185 Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationis

Eye on the Market Outlook 2025: The Alchemists Jan 1, 2025 2173 Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list. View the video here

The Year of Living Dangerously Dec 10, 2024 994 I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said. View video here

"Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story Nov 6, 2024 1202 A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.

The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade Oct 17, 2024 854 For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run. Click here to read the full PDF and view the video.

Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election Sep 30, 2024 1764 Candidate policy comparisons in a historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years. Today’s note looks at candidate policy differences and implications for investors: government spending, taxation, tariffs, trade, immigration, regulation, NATO, energy, price controls and the Electoral College. We conclude

A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market Sep 3, 2024 1526 NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending. View video here

There’s no place like home Aug 27, 2024 1118 A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies may be worse for recipients of Google’s “shelf space” payments than for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important

The Lion in Winter Jul 23, 2024 1003 From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapes

The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State Jul 9, 2024 1191 The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export morat

A Piece of the Action Jun 6, 2024 549 Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subs

Animal Farm May 15, 2024 1413 With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide

Cicadian Rhythms Apr 24, 2024 1411 Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model View video here

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Apr 2, 2024 1154 The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election. View video here

Electravision Mar 5, 2024 1332 This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. View video here

Five Easy Pieces Feb 8, 2024 1151 Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities. View video here

Medical Complications Jan 23, 2024 709 This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality. View video here

Outlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten Surprises Jan 17, 2024 952 A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien View video here

Outlook 2024 - Episode 2: Deep Dive—The Fats Dominoes Jan 10, 2024 1094 The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets. View video here

Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk - Episode 1: Outlook Overview Jan 1, 2024 1463 Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024. View transcript View the video here

It’s Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review Dec 5, 2023 1272 A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit View video here

Not That 70’s Show Nov 14, 2023 1586 Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets View transcript View video here

New York, Just Like I Pictured It Oct 16, 2023 1360 Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness. View transcript View video here View deck here

What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World Sep 26, 2023 1063 I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. View transcript View video and charts here

The Rasputin Effect Aug 2, 2023 1255 Global resilience to higher rates View transcript View video and charts here

Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride Jul 18, 2023 747 The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs View transcript with chart references

Letters to the Editor Jun 14, 2023 977 Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

Too Long at the Fair May 23, 2023 570 Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while View transcript with chart references

The Places We Could Go Apr 25, 2023 971 Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefu

Frankenstein’s Monster Apr 10, 2023 1124 Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence Mar 28, 2023 1126 Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to. This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energ

Winter Heating Feb 21, 2023 988 The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans. View transcript with chart references

American Gothic Jan 24, 2023 560 The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it View transcript with the chart references

The End of the Affair Jan 1, 2023 1609 The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins View transcript with chart references

Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck Dec 1, 2022 943 Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule

A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving Nov 2, 2022 897 In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart be

Reruns Oct 19, 2022 933 Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with little relevance for anyone else

Arrested Development Sep 26, 2022 859 Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS Sep 6, 2022 1122 Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the

Independence Days Jun 27, 2022 1109 Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industry

The Elephants in the Room: Part Four, Whydrogen Jun 15, 2022 1352 Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one

The Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heating May 26, 2022 947 Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil fuels only apply to new buildings?

Bear Market Barometers May 17, 2022 644 The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.

The Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Transmission and electric vehicles May 11, 2022 1173 We continue with two topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users and the transmission quagmire

The Elephants in the Room May 11, 2022 1100 We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration

Surveying the Damage Mar 22, 2022 935 Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, the COVID situation in Hong Kong and the latest on ivermectin

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine Mar 7, 2022 757 The bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and other prices which will probably drag Europe into recession, and impose a heavy growth drag on the rest of the world as well. But before getting into it, the chart below should hang in the offices of policymakers everywhere. Energy transitions are inher

Webcast replay: Russia, Ukraine and implications for investors Mar 4, 2022 3528 Listen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor, North America Institutional, discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for investors.

Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine Feb 15, 2022 959 Topics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers

Middle Ages Dec 6, 2021 809 On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.

The Thing Nov 15, 2021 846 Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.

Help Wanted Oct 20, 2021 927 “Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining business surveys as the result of a temporary supply shock and not a sign of inadequate demand. As a result, growth should rebound in 2022, and positions that benefit from reflation should benefit (energy, value and cyclicals). However, while goods bottlene

Dude, Where’s My Stuff Sep 27, 2021 821 The global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. We expect all three to occur over the next few months, leading to a global growth bounce in 2022

Spaccine hesitancy Aug 19, 2021 725 Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity. An update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends up understating some critical COVID vaccine efficacy data

Red Med Redemption Jul 26, 2021 699 Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth

Thy Brother’s Keeper Jul 13, 2021 958 COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).

Food Fight: 2021 Private Equity Update Jun 28, 2021 819 Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We

Future Shock May 5, 2021 1380 Absent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar power reach new heights every year but still represent just 5% of global primary energy consumption. In this year’s energy paper, we review why decarbonization is taking so long: transmission obstacles, industrial energy use, the gargantuan mineral and p

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