Alpha Exchange
The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. In-depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. The podcast aims to learn from guests' perspectives on the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding of how prior periods provide context to present day dynamics. Topics include the price of risk, monetary policy evolution, and derivative products.
Episodes
The Three Types of Risk-Off
What causes significant risk-off events? Can they be anticipated to any degree? Understanding the how and why of these episodes is critical for investors seeking to avoid drawdowns.
In this short podcast, I share how I think about episodes of risk-off, with particular attention to the interaction between stock and bond prices — before, during, and after market vol events.
I outline three type of r
Aaron Brown, Wall Street Quant and Author: Wrong Number
Aaron Brown is a Wall Street quant, risk manager, and trader. He’s also a professor and the author of the recent book Wrong Number—on probability, reasoning, and the role of skepticism in markets and beyond.
We begin with Aaron’s unconventional path into finance, from identifying betting opportunities in horse racing and playing professional poker to studying under pioneers including Fischer Bla
David Dredge, Founder and CIO, Convex Strategies
David Dredge, Founder and CIO of Convex Strategies, has spent his career in derivatives markets, on the long side of optionality and seeking value in convexity. It was great to learn more about the role he plays in fortifying client portfolios with insurance and to have him reflect on how periods of market stress expose limitations in traditional risk methodologies.
Our conversation focuses on vo
Samir Patel, Global Head of Global Market Sales, Nomura Securities
It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Samir Patel, Global Head of Global Market Sales at Nomura Securities International, on leadership, client strategy, and the evolution of institutional markets businesses in an environment defined by constant change.
The conversation emphasizes how institutional client relationships have evolved over time. Samir explains why clients increasingly seek co
Colin Lancaster, Global Co-Head of Discretionary Macro and Fixed Income at Schonfeld Strategic Advisors
It was a pleasure to welcome Colin Lancaster, Global Co-Head of Discretionary Macro and Fixed Income at Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, back to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion focuses on the evolution of the multi-manager model, portfolio construction, and the challenges of navigating today’s macro environment.
Colin discusses the importance of systems, data, and risk infrastructure, and why sc
Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution, Barclays
It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution at Barclays, and solicit his insights on change – in markets, in client relationships and in the growing role of technology across the financial ecosystem.
We begin with Ronnie’s early years at Goldman Sachs during the final stages of the technology bubble and the sharp market reversal that followed. H
Robert Flatley, Founder & CEO TS Imagine
I was excited to host this conversation with Rob Flatley, Founder and CEO of TS Imagine, on prediction markets, AI-driven workflows, and the structural changes reshaping financial market infrastructure.
We begin with Rob’s path from software engineering into capital markets, including leadership roles at Bank of America and Deutsche Bank during the rise of electronic trading and through the Glob
Hari Krishnan, Head of Volatility Strategies at SCT Capital Management
It was a pleasure to host a conversation with Hari Krishnan, Head of Volatility Strategies at SCT Capital, on the changing nature of volatility markets, portfolio hedging, and why commodities may offer increasingly valuable diversification in today’s environment.
Hari reflects on his book Second Leg Down, which explores practical approaches to tail-risk hedging and the cyclical nature of volatili
Robert Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, and former President of the Dallas Fed
It was a pleasure to welcome Rob Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, and former President of the Dallas Fed, to the Alpha Exchange.
We begin with Rob’s reflections on his time at the helm of the Dallas Fed from 2015 to 2021, a period spanning rate liftoff, fiscal stimulus, and the COVID crisis. He outlines how his perspective as a business practitioner led him to focus on structural forces—d
Wayne Dahl, Co-Portfolio Manager, Oaktree Capital Management
It was a pleasure to welcome Wayne Dahl, Co-Portfolio Manager of Global Credit Strategy at Oaktree Capital Management, to the Alpa Exchange.
We begin with Wayne’s path through convertible arbitrage, structured credit, and multi-asset investing, and how that foundation informs a framework centered on understanding sensitivities across rates, credit, and equity exposures. Convertible arbitrage, in
Alpha Exchange 250th Episode: A Retrospective
Welcome to Episode 250 of the Alpha Exchange. To celebrate the milestone, I asked my dear friend, Jon Kalikow, to host the conversation, switching seats and having me as the guest.
I launched the podcast in 2018 with a simple idea: to create space for long-form conversations that explore how market practitioners think about risk. Rather than focusing on predictions, the goal has always been to un
The Shock Heard ‘Round the World: US Government Bonds
The “risk-free” rate figures prominently in how we’ve all been taught the foundations of finance. To price a security, start with the asset that is the safest and soundest and then add compensation for bearing uncertainty. It has always been self-evident that the global risk-free benchmark was the Treasury market. Deep, liquid and viewed as default free, US government bonds have been the recipient
Kris Abdelmessih, Co-Founder, Moontower.ai
Kris Abdelmessih, author of the MoonTower Substack and founder of the options analytics firm MoonTower.ai., has spent years thinking about option pricing, volatility regimes, and the mental math traders use to translate volatility into price. In this context, it was great to welcome him back to the Alpha Exchange to explore his thought process.
We begin with developments in commodity markets, par
Zach Buchwald, Chairman and CEO, Russell Investments
As Chairman and CEO, Zach Buchwald leads Russell Investments, a firm overseeing $370bln in client assets and celebrating its 90th anniversary in providing portfolio management services to institutions and individuals.
Zach details the open-architecture model utilized at Russell, explaining how portfolios are constructed by combining best-of-breed managers and strategies across asset classes. He s
Alberto Gallo, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Andromeda Capital Management
Amidst these very uncertain times in the economy, geopolitics, and asset prices, it was excellent to welcome Alberto Gallo, founder and CIO of Andromeda Capital Management, back to the Alpha Exchange.
Our conversation first considers the long arc of post-crisis monetary policy. Here, Alberto argues that extended quantitative easing, while stabilizing in the short run, carried structural side effe
Michael Contopoulos, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Richard Bernstein Advisors
With early exposure to Paul Tudor Jones and then stints on the sell-side in credit research, Michael Contopoulos is now Deputy CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, a macro-oriented asset manager overseeing roughly $20 billion across long-only portfolios. Our discussion centers on portfolio construction in an era of extreme equity concentration and shifting global leadership.On the equity side, the f
Louis Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & Chief Executive Officer, Gavekal Research
It was a pleasure to welcome Louis Gave, the Founding Partner and CEO of Gavekal, back to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion centers on what he describes as one of the most consequential and underappreciated macro developments today: the mispricing—and now the policy shift—of the Chinese renminbi. Louis is quite bullish on China.Louis argues that for much of the past decade, China has acted as a p
Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy, PIMCO
It is busy time, to say the least, for Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO. Today’s markets are grappling with vast uncertainties…in US fiscal policy, in Fed independence and leadership, in geopolitics, and in global trade. Libby is charged with helping both the clients and risk-takers of PIMCO better understand the implications of policy that is changing rapidly.Through her conversatio
GME 5 Years Later…Lessons and Threats
Five years ago, on January 27th, 2021, the frenzied buying and speculation in Gamestop hit its apex. In this short podcast, I look back on one of the more fascinating, and dare I say, dangerous, risk events in modern day markets. The stock was subject to an outright speculative attack. But not the kind most CEOs complain about. This was not Soros taking down the British pound in 1992. This was a r
Alex Urdea, Founder and CIO, Deep Ocean Partners
It was a pleasure to welcome Alex Urdea, Founder and CIO of Deep Ocean Partners to the Alpha Exchange. Alex traces his career from credit derivatives trading at a large bank to a risk management function at a hedge fund focused on distressed investing to ultimately building an asset-backed private credit platform focused on smaller, less trafficked segments of the lending universe. The conversatio
Andrew Lapthorne, Global Head of Quantitative Research, Societe Generale
Today’s market landscape is defined by extremes that challenge conventional portfolio construction. A small group of mega-cap stocks now represents an unprecedented share of index weight, profit generation, and capital spending, raising important questions about valuation, diversification, and risk concentration. With this in mind, it was great to have Andrew Lapthorne, Global Head of Quantitative
Closing Thoughts on 2025
As I share my closing thoughts on 2025, I want to look back with an eye towards pointing out this year’s unique characteristics from a market risk perspective. I start this exercise by highlighting what I consider to be 2025’s three most interesting days from a vol and risk perspective: 1) the April 7th roller-coaster in the VIX 2) the September 10th surge in ORCL and 3) the October 21st melt-do
Ian Harnett, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Strategist, Absolute Strategy Research
It was a pleasure to welcome Ian Harnett, co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion explores how long periods of low volatility and abundant liquidity can quietly allow systemic risks to accumulate outside the traditional banking system. Drawing on lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, Ian explains why today’s financial syst
Kumaran Vijayakumar, Co-Founder and CEO, DataDock Solutions
Kumaran Vijayakumar has spent his career in the equity derivatives market, first as an exotics trader and later in running large risk-taking desks in listed and OTC options. Now, the CEO of DataDock Solutions, a firm he Co-Founded in 2018, Kumaran and his team are developing analytical tools that allow sell-side flow desks to better understand the risks they take and clients they take it for. Our
Mark Rosenberg, Founder and Co-Head, Geoquant
Risk generally falls into 4 categories, monetary (Central Banks), economic (growth and profits), financial (leverage, carry and correlation) and finally, geopolitical. This last category is non-market, market risk. And in this context, it was a pleasure to welcome Mark Rosenberg, Founder of GeoQuant and adjunct professor at UC Berkeley to the Alpha Exchange for a discussion centered on political
Todd Rapp, CEO, Fortress Multi-Manager Group
Todd Rapp got his career started in equity options at Goldman Sachs in the late 1990’s, a wild time in which a bubble inflated and burst and provided critical lessons in both gamma and vega risk in the process. Now the CEO of the Fortress Multi-Manager Group, Todd leans heavily on his derivatives DNA in the areas of sourcing uncorrelated return streams, portfolio construction and both measuring an
Jessica Stauth, CIO, Systematic Equity, Fidelity Investments
It was a pleasure to welcome Jessica Stauth, CIO for Systematic Equities at Fidelity Investments, to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion explores how quant investing has evolved through cycles of market stress, technological change, and today’s extraordinary concentration in the equity landscape. Reflecting on her start in markets in the aftermath of the 2007 Quant Quake and the onset of the global
Price is the Only Fundamental
They say there’s always a bull market somewhere and a chart on doom commentary has surely been up and to the right. Perhaps it’s been the joint decline in the equity and crypto markets. NVDA is down 10% in November and Bitcoin is down almost twice that. Perhaps it’s been that there wasn’t a hard and fast enough of a catalyst to point to…no trade war, Powell presser, CPI surprise or earnings shortf
Megan Miller, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Options Solutions, Allspring Global Investments
Welcome back to the Alpha Exchange. In today’s episode, I am joined by Megan Miller, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of the Options Solutions team at Allspring Global Investments. Her career spans the extremes of market volatility—from learning options trading during the GFC to now overseeing option-based strategies across a $600 billion platform. The conversation centers on how her team uses a
Jordi Visser, CEO of Visser Labs and Head of AI Macro Research at 22V
On this episode of the Alpha Exchange, I’m pleased to welcome back Jordi Visser, CEO of Visser Labs and Head of AI Macro Research at 22V. Our conversation centers on one of the most consequential themes in markets today: the intersection of artificial intelligence, exponential innovation, and market structure. With Nvidia’s historic rise as a backdrop and AI’s increasing integration into every sec
Alex Kazan, Partner and Geopolitical Co-Lead, Brunswick Group
The global economic and geopolitical order has long been balanced by the United States. Today, however, that traditional stabilizing role is in flux. The drivers of market uncertainty, typically resulting from changes in monetary policy and the economy, are increasingly linked to US politics. Fiscal strain, tariffs, and hyper-partisanship are sources of unpredictability reverberating across market
Is US Stock Market Wealth a Reflexive Risk?
Loyal listeners, I hope your recent days have gone well, even if they are becoming shorter. On my mind – and where I hope to engage your interest for 20 odd minutes – is the topic of risk and uncertainty.The SPX is at an all time high and it is also highly concentrated with volatile and richly valued but uncorrelated tech behemoths. That’s very unique. Whether you are an AI bull or bear, one thing
Ben Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy Société Générale
The distribution of asset price returns is a subject of much study in the literature of empirical finance. We know, of course, that equity returns are left-tailed, subject to the occasional violent plunge. But other asset classes are different, and in this context it was a pleasure to welcome Ben Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at Société Générale, to the Alpha Exchange. Ben describes comm
Low Correlation is the Defining Risk in Markets
They say that diversification is the only “free lunch” in markets. Scatter your bets around and you’ll realize a reduction in volatility that helps you manage risk. That’s been happening at an epic scale in US equity markets: the 1m correlation among stocks in the S&P 500 is (to quote Dean Wormer from Animal House) zero point zero. But I’d argue that today’s index and the trillions of dollars that
David Puritz, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Shaolin Capital Management
It was a pleasure to welcome David Puritz back to the Alpha Exchange. A colleague of mine from 25 years ago and now the CIO of Shaolin Capital Management, Dave has some excellent insights to share on uncorrelated investing broadly and on the current state of convertible bond trading, risk, and liquidity, specifically. When he last joined the podcast in 2021, the Fed was still at zero, five-year yi
RoR: Reflections on Risk
In this discussion, I share my thoughts on the backdrop for both SPX realized and implied volatility, as I explore the question of whether there is value in optionality. We have 3 things going in terms of realized vol at the index level. It’s low, it’s especially low on SPX down days, and it’s remarkably stable. My take is that the combination here can play tricks on how we think about risk. We ar
Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics, Harvard and Former Chief Economist, IMF
On this episode of the Alpha Exchange, I had the pleasure of reconnecting with Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chief Economist at the IMF. In our conversation, we explore themes from his latest book, Our Dollar, Your Problem, a valuable retrospective, and analysis of the rise of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency and the vulnerabilities that accompany it. In o
Kris Kumar, Founder and CIO, Goose Hollow Capital
It was a pleasure to welcome Kris Kumar, founder and CIO of Goose Hollow Capital, back to the Alpha Exchange. Kris presents a compelling argument that traditional economic frameworks centered on consumption are becoming obsolete as AI-driven capital expenditure emerges as the dominant growth engine. With companies spending $400 billion annually on AI infrastructure, he contends we're witnessing a
Rainy Day Insurance Amidst the Sunshine
As the summer winds down, and there’s so little daily motion in the SPX, the realized vol spike of April feels further in the rear view. I often suggest that periods of calm in the market can cloud our thinking about risk. Sometimes markets get caught in low vol moods and this is one of them. But low realized volatility should not be viewed as an all clear. A good case can be made that the backdro
Ben Hunt, Co-Founder, CIO and President, Perscient
On this episode of the Alpha Exchange, I was joined by Ben Hunt, Co-founder and CIO of Perscient. Ben has built his career around one powerful idea: that the stories we tell—whether in politics, markets, or everyday life—shape our behavior far more than we realize. In the mid-2000s, entering Wall Street from outside its traditional ranks gave him a rare vantage point. He wasn’t steeped in the bull
Distributions have Consequences
On my mind is correlation. There are plenty of financial market correlations, both implied and realized. In equities, we talk a good deal about the correlation implied by the relationship between S&P 500 index implied vol and the implied vol on the stocks within the index. That’s been low, to put it mildly. How about the correlation between the dollar and SPX? A signature aspect of the recent risk
Benn Eifert, Founder and CIO, QVR Advisors
The clearing price of optionality in the market is impacted by a myriad of factors. To be sure, the economy and corporate profit cycle, the stance of monetary policy and geopolitical risk all matter. Flows in the derivatives markets are also of consequence as they impact the environment for supply and demand. And in this context, it was excellent to welcome Benn Eifert, Founder and Managing Partne
John Marshall, Head of Derivatives Research, Goldman Sachs
It was a pleasure to welcome John Marshall, Head of Derivatives Research at Goldman Sachs, to the Alpha Exchange. Our conversation explores a number of critical topics starting with the meaningful growth of equity funds deploying options as part of a risk management overlay. John describes how covered call ETFs and systematic vol-selling funds have quietly reshaped the supply/demand dynamics for i
Sayings on Vol and Risk...A Fresh 10
Greetings and salutations loyal listeners, welcome to what promises to be another exciting addition to our Sayings on Vol and Risk. To set the table, last year, I did a 5-part series with 25 Sayings. These are concise statements I’ve wound up using many times over during the course of my career to help myself and others think about market risk. These pitchy proverbs are market maxims that explore
Dan Villalon, Global Co-Head of Portfolio Solutions, AQR Capital Management
Today’s world of ETFs and mutual funds increasingly features new flavors, a popular one of which is derived from embedding optionality. There are plenty of ways in which one might contemplate risk managing and shaping the distribution of equity returns using options. Common strategies like overwriting create income, but limit upside. Others like the zero cost collars create both upside and downsid
Mitchell Garfin, Co-Head of Leveraged Finance, BlackRock
With nearly three decades at BlackRock, Mitch Garfin brings a deep well of experience to his role as Co-head of Leveraged Finance, overseeing high yield and leveraged loan strategies for the firm. In this episode, we explore the evolution of the credit landscape — from structural shifts in the high-yield market that leave indices of higher credit quality to managing risk in a world of tight spread
Sayings on Vol and Risk...A Fresh Five
In 2024, I did a 5-part podcast series called “25 Sayings on Vol and Risk”. These are observations I’ve found do a nice job of describing how markets work, or perhaps better said, how markets sometimes fail to work. Because markets are always teaching us lessons, I couldn’t help but add to the original 25 with five new sayings. I’ll follow up in short order with another five.Here are our Sayings
Benjamin Bowler, Managing Director and Global Head of Equity Derivatives Research at Bank of America
As Global Head of Equity Derivatives Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Ben Bowler is helping the firm’s institutional client base understand the complex risk dynamics that impose themselves on today’s markets. His process often leads him across asset classes, looking for linkages and developing stress indices that may provide early warning signs for US equity markets.Our discussion first
Corey Hoffstein, CIO, Newfound Research
Corey Hoffstein, the Co-Founder and CIO of Newfound Research is among the investors expanding the financial product set available to the RIA community. A client segment that has long been fed a diet of 60/40 exposures, the high-net-worth community is finding the need to diversify beyond stock and bond exposure. Using their innovative approach to return stacking, Corey and team are making alternati
The VIXgilantes Strike Back
In six short trading days from 4/2 to 4/9, the SPX realized as much vol as it did during the ENTIRE year of 2024. The protracted risk-off that began with the “Liberation Day” fallout ranks only behind Covid and the GFC in terms of severity using data going back to 1990. While we've likely moved past peak VIX, in the aftermath of recent chaos is an overhang of uncertainty that may hamper critical d
Matt King, Founder, Satori Insights
For Matt King, evaluating market risk is often about pinpointing vulnerabilities within the financial system. Over the many years he's been advising institutional investors, he's gone where the action is - in the dotcom era it was corporate balance sheets, in the pre-GFC period it was asset-backed CP and in the last decade it's been sovereigns and QE. Now the founder of Satori Insights, Matt share
Steve Englander, Head of G10 FX and North America Macro Strategy, Standard Chartered
Market risk events come in all shapes and sizes, originating from unique sources of uncertainty. We've seen them all - valuation bubble unwinds, mortgage credit crashes, Fed policy shocks, even the shutdown of the US economy from Covid. Over the last month, investors have been forced to confront a new risk, that of the imposition of substantial tariffs by the US on its trading partners. With this
The Vol Shock Heard 'Round the World
Lenin purportedly said, “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” It’s difficult to understate how highly consequential these past few days have been. We live in an interconnected world of international rivalries, debt, trade, asset prices and economies. All kinds of tail probabilities become more live when a shock of this magnitude occurs. From a market
Campbel Harvey, Professor of Finance, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
Best known for his seminal work on the information content of the US Treasury yield curve nearly 4 decades ago, Campbell Harvey has produced meaningful academic research in all corners of empirical finance. In this episode of the Alpha Exchange, I caught up with Campbell, now a Professor of Finance at Duke and Partner at Research Affiliates, on his recent work on gold, an asset near and dear to me
GeoVolitics and Gold
In this discussion, I review the absolutely stunning level of volatility experienced by the S&P 500 right around this time 5 years ago, as the market crash resulting from the Covid shutdowns occurred. No asset – except volatility – can survive the liquidation that took place in March of 2020. I also focus on gold, which, to be clear and to repeat, is not a hedge. A hedge is an insurance contract t
Owen Lamont, Senior Vice President, Acadian Asset Management
Now a Portfolio Manager at Acadian Asset Management, Owen Lamont has had a long career in both the markets and in academic research on them. Earning a PhD in Economics from MIT in the 1990’s and then teaching at the University of Chicago shortly thereafter, Owen makes the point that these two storied institutions approach empirical finance from vastly different perspectives, with the MIT approach
Roxton McNeal, QIS Lead Portfolio Manager, Simplify Asset Management
“This is not your father’s ETF market” would be one statement used to highlight the ever-expanding product mix available to investors via exchange traded funds. Today’s suite of ETFs embeds derivatives, targets non-traditional assets like private credit and crypto and can offer daily resetting leverage as well. Add to this, efforts to deliver exposures to quantitative investment strategies via the
GeoVolitics, Implied Correlation and Option Pricing
My process is about seeking out some alpha through analyzing a broad spectrum of prices, specifically the one’s that imply some probability. I will repeat that it is the options market, not the stock market that is the best economist in the world. Option contracts carry the dimensions of time – the expiration – and distance – the strike price and the resulting prices help us gauge two important qu
Is There a Plumbing Problem in Equity Correlation?
Recently, DeepSeek, tariffs and earnings news have caused large moves in some stocks but not others, leaving fluctuations at the equity index level relatively tame. Will this volatility moderating run of low correlation continue? In this short podcast, I explore the recent history of extraordinary diversification in the US equity market along with the implications that may result. Is the market v
Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
It is said that death and taxes are the only two certainties in life. Add to these, the enormous growth of the ETF industry as a third irrefutable occurrence. Covering the landscape of exchange traded funds for Bloomberg is Eric Balchunas, a man steeped in the most plain vanilla of products like the SPY to the newest flavors of underlying exposures and payout constructions which he calls “hot sauc
Anniversary Episode: Reflections on the Podcast
Since 2018, Dean Curnutt has been hosting discussions with market professionals, focused on topics such as portfolio construction, hedging, monetary policy and the impact of financial products on markets. Central to these conversations has been the exploration of an expert’s risk framework and how he or she goes about looking for opportunities. A little more than 6 years after its launch, the Alp
Digital Gold and Actual Gold
Good listeners welcome to 2025 and at the risk of offending Larry David and violating his strict 3 day statute of limitations, I gotta wish you a Happy New Year.The subject at hand is diversification. What composition of assets yields a favorable return with bearable drawdowns? After two straight years of 25+ percent returns on the SPX with just 13 vol, portfolio construction might be considered a
IBIT…the Hottest Option on the Planet
The subject at hand in this discussion is the unbelievable launch of options on IBIT, the bitcoin ETF. What I’d like to put forth is that the financial characteristics of the underlying asset – bitcoin - pave the way for IBIT options, already off to an amazing start, to become a critical industry risk management tool.The unique risk characteristics of bitcoin and how they shape the option vol surf
Ali Samadi, Managing Director, Equity Derivatives, Nomura Securities
The “flow desk” as it’s often called on the sell-side is about repeatability and scale in the service of institutional clients. It’s a competitive business with not a lot of margin for error, especially in a product like equity options where being on the wrong side of a misbehaving Greek could spell trouble. With this in mind, it was great to welcome Ali Samadi, Head of Flow Equity Derivative Sale
Michael Green, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management
A major theme of Alpha Exchange podcasts over the years has been the impact that financial products that live and breathe within the markets have on asset clearing prices. Events like the crash of 1987, the GFC, the 2018 XIV event or the unwind of short variance exposure in March 2020 come to mind as examples. More recently, the substantial growth of leveraged ETF products has gotten a lot of atte
Bitcoin, Price / Vol Spirals and MSTR
What follows are some of my recent thoughts on a favorite topic: the interaction between option prices and the assets upon which these options are written. Specifically, I share thoughts on price / vol spirals, which come in two flavors: a) the asset plummets and vol explodes b) the asset surges and vol explodes. In the first, which we might call "Melt Down", the asset nears a bankruptcy cliff a
Victor Haghani, Founder and CIO, Elm Partners
It was a pleasure to welcome Victor Haghani, the Founder and CIO of Elm Wealth Management back to the Alpha Exchange for an engaging discussion on those turbo-charged financial products called leveraged ETFs. Our conversation is focused on the large product suite built around MicroStrategy, a software company whose mission appears to be solely focused on the accumulation of bitcoin. Itself a stock
20 Things to Do Before You Ask for a Price (Part 4)
Welcome back to the last installment of “20 Things to Do Before You Ask for a Price”. This 4-part series has been geared towards illustrating how the equity derivative salestrader can be a meaningful part of getting two institutional counterparties to “yes” with respect to the transfer of option risk. The salestrader, sitting between the trader and the client, can quarterback the process by appre
Rocky Fishman, Founder and CEO, Asym 500 LLC
It was a pleasure to welcome Rocky Fishman, Founder and CEO of derivatives advisory firm Asym 500 back to the Alpha Exchange. An area of specialty for Rocky is evaluating systematic trading strategies, like vol targeting, that live and breathe within equity markets and potentially sponsor feedback loops.The focus of our discussion, the growing universe of leveraged ETFs, a unique product set that
20 Things to Do Before You Ask for a Price (Part 3)
Welcome to Part 3 of “20 Things to do Before You Ask for a Price”. To review, “20 Things” is a to-do list I developed more than 2 decades ago while running a derivative sales team. The desk committed a substantial amount of capital in pursuit of business, which made it easy to win trades but also easy to lose money in the process of winning those trades. 20 Things was about playing defense and of
Dominique Toublan, Head of US Credit Strategy, Barclays
While the SPX has enjoyed a banner year in 2024, a series of risk events have mattered, including the August 5th spike in the VIX and option pricing uncertainty into the US election. Credit spreads have generally behaved in benign fashion, however. What will 2025 bring for the world of credit and what risks should we pay attention to? With this in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome Dominique Toubl
20 Things to Do Before You Ask for a Price (Part 2)
We are back, with installment number 2 of “20 Things to Do Before You Ask for a Price”. It’s a to-do list for the equity derivatives salestrader who chooses to be a relevant and constructive part of the option risk transfer process that a buy-side client and sell-side trader engage in. Small trades – like buying a pack of gum – can be consummated quickly. Large trades – like buying a house – typic
20 Things to Do Before You Ask for a Price (Part 1)
I wanted to welcome you all to a new, 4-part series of the Alpha Exchange, “Twenty Things to Do Before You Ask for a Price”. In short, this is my thinking on what a derivatives salesperson ought to do instinctively and nearly instantaneously in his or her interaction with a trader colleague being asked to price option risk for a client. These 20 things constitute a real time to do list for the sa
Post Election Reflection (on Vol)
A resounding Trump win. A collapse in vol. Bitcoin “number go up”. And up. And up. The French Whale on Polymarket got paid. A star was born in Scott Jennings. The Fed eased. And, Powell, in the words of DiCaprio in Wolf of Wall Street said, “I ain’t f’n leaving”. That’s the summary. But there’s lots more to explore and in this short pod I aim to provide you with some food for thought on the risk
Shailesh Gupta, Head of Structural Alpha, Simplify Asset Management
Of all the concepts focused on throughout the discussions hosted on the Alpha Exchange, the notion of “carry” is one of my favorites. In its most basic definition, carry measures the income or cost to holding an asset in the steady state, when nothing changes. Underpinning the assessment of value in any option trade or strategy is a view on the favorability of carry at a given point in time. Can I
Meb Faber, Founder and CEO, Cambria Investment Management
It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Meb Faber, the Founder and CEO of Cambria Asset Management. Our conversation begins with the question of whether it’s a good idea to buy the market at an all time high. To this, Meb argues it’s actually a great idea, pointing to the data and that markets in an uptrend continue to move higher.We incorporate the notion of a trend following strategy, which
The DOTS (Discounting of Trump Success)
Is Trump in the price? Wall Street is asking this question. In this podcast, I walk through how the market prices implied volatility around the US Election, focusing on the SPX, TLT and even DJT. As option premiums are much higher than justified by recent realized, there’s an enormous vol risk premium, the result of a withdrawal of vol supply. There’s interesting information coming from betting si
Hedge When You Can, Not When You Have to
In this short podcast, I make the case for doing what doesn’t come naturally - taking defensive action when times are good. The first portion of the discussion assesses event risk premium into and after consequential macro events like Brexit and prior US elections. The main shared attribute is that implied vol remains elevated into the event, even in the face of muted realized volatility. A second
The Opera of Option Prices
In China, the “vol shot” heard round the world occurred recently with the Chinese government throwing the kitchen sink at the economy and market, seeking to revive the relatively lifeless patient. As it usually does, at least temporarily, it worked. Insofar as asset price reaction that is. An explosion in volumes ensued as did the classic “stock up vol up” dynamic made most famous in 2021 during
Option Prices are Singing
Option prices - by incorporating time (expiry) and distance (strike) - give us many more dimensions than a mere flat price like the SPX or a single stock. If the stock market speaks, then the option market sings. It's my strong contention that option prices are singing out loud right now, begging for attention. The market was largely unchanged on the week, but there were some meaningful developmen
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