The Risk Takers Podcast
The Risk Takers Podcast is a sports betting podcast that offers sharp insights and analysis. Hosted by GoldenPants13, it aims to provide listeners with winning strategies and tips for sports wagering. The show covers various sports and betting markets, helping both novice and experienced bettors make informed decisions.
Episodes
World Cup, NFL Predictions, State of Industry & Identifying Rec Flow | Ep 165
This week we have a Q&A extravaganza. 42 questions were asked on Twitter - and we get through all of them besides 2 golf questions that one of the hosts decided to cut out (not naming names). News includes someone gaming the mysterious world cup PM sponsor, ADI Predictstreet & an ice cream shop "hedging" on Kalshi.Substack Mentioned: https://pmpulse.substack.com/0:00 Q&A Roun
"The Most Pure Form of Betting" Horse Racing w/ Dennis Montoro | Ep 164
This week we are joined by professional horse bettor Dennis Montoro (https://x.com/dennycaps1) about all things horse betting. Denny explains why getting a good fair is only one of the important modeling problems in horse racing and a lot of general advice on how to win at peer to peer games.0:00 Intro15:30 Pari-mutuel Betting51:00 Rebates & CAWs1:14:10 Modelling Horse Racing1:37:00 Listener Q
Non-Technical Traits All Top Bettors Have & ENG v. MEX | Ep 163
The news almost becomes the main topic in this episode, where GP and SP breakdown the record breaking England v. Mexico World Cup game that did most likely over a billion dollars of volume between all markets.The main topic is a look into what non-technical traits are near-universal amongst top bettors.0:00 Traits of Top Bettors28:30 News1:11:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by
Sharp Taker EvenSteven Talks About Maxing Efficiency | Ep 162
Today on the show we are joined by EvenSteven (https://x.com/evenstevengg) - a sports bettor with seven-figures of profit on prediction markets.Steven talks about why most top down bettors shouldn't try to originate or market make, how to analyze live trading data to find edge, and what is the most important skill a live taker can have.0:00 Sports Betting30:30 Prediction Markets1:10:30 Q&
World Cup Betting Including GPs Biggest Loss of All Time | Ep 161
This episode SP and GP get into the first World Cup on Prediction Markets. The insanity of this world cup has surpassed our wildest expectations and we discuss what makes it unlike anything we have ever seen before. Big news and a lot of questions follow - enjoy!0:00 First World Cup on Prediction Markets36:00 News1:04:30 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bett
From DFS Crusher to "Fantasy Football for Rich Kids" (Venture Capital) w/ James G | Ep 160
Today GP and SP talk to James Gettinger, founding partner of Gutter Capital - one of the top preforming VC funds in the world.Why is James on our podcast you might ask? Well, before venture capital, James was one of the most profitable Daily Fantasy Sports players of all time. He pioneered contest simulations and was a first mover in many strategies that now are common amongst the best players. Th
Dead Bottom-Up Edges and SPs Triumphant Return | Ep 159
First we welcome SP back to the podcast and he shares some exciting life news that explains his absence last week.Then SP and GP both give an example of an originating edge that they had at some point - not shocking that the "sports" are Golf and League of Legends. Big news week and some great questions follow.0:00 Dead Originating Edges33:10 News 1:17:30 QuestionsWelcome to The Risk Tak
Who Does AI Help in Sports Betting (PeanutBettor Guest Host) | Ep 158
This week SP is AFK so we get Mr. PeanutBettor to sub in as a guest host. We cover who we think will be most helped by AI along with a lot of news and great questions. Clearly SP holds the show together because this went off the rails and became the longest episode yet.00:00 AI in Sports Betting40:30 News1:13:30 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John S
What Sportsbooks Can Teach You About Market Making & Kalish v. Kalshi | Ep 157
This week we kick it off with some lessons we learned retroactively from sportsbooks after we started market making on prediction markets. Then we cover the news - including the Matt Kalish v. Kalshi saga that is still going strong 2 weeks in. Then we hit one of the longest Q&As in history to clear our backlog of questions!0:00 What Sportsbooks Got Right25:30 News1:14:00 Q&AWelcome to The
Why the Edge in RFQs isn't the Pricing w/ TroyCuban | Ep 156
This week SP and GP are joined by Troy (https://x.com/troycuban) to talk about how he has made over $700k on Kalshi this year despite never originating a bet in his life.Troy is slightly different than our typical guest (only slightly) in that he comes from a traditional finance background and now only does RFQs full time. This could be the deepest dive recorded into the most important market on K
Managing Risk Hidden Risk on Prediction Markets | Ep 155
Record breaking episode for most questions asked - if you asked a question and we didn't get to it, it's because this episode would have been 4 hours and we will answer on our next solo show.Today SP and GP talk about the non-obvious risks on prediction markets. As bettors we all are aware of bankroll management and betsizing tools like Kelly. But in this new world, there are more threat
Million Dollar Manual Trading w/ Clay Alter | Ep 154
Today we interview Clay Alter (ClayA on Kalshi) about his start in sports betting and recent rise up the Kalshi leaderboard. Clay shocks SP and GP when he says he manages his orders fully from the orders tab on the Kalshi UI. Possibly the most manual trader we have had on and he's crossed $1.5 million in profits in 8 months on Kalshi. A great reminder that there are many ways to do it!Follow
How Complex do Models Need to be in 2026 & PM News Breaks Contain | Ep 153
Nerd alert. The main topic is a discussion on deterministic v. probabilistic models in the current betting environment. News includes the solider who bet on himself to capture a foreign leader and made $440k before getting arrested and a rant on the people complaining about FandDuels injury insurance.0:00 Deterministic v. Stochastic Sports Models26:00 News1:05:15 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers
Play Sports Betting on "Hard Mode" by Betting Main Lines w/ Justin | Ep 152
Today we are joined by Justin (https://x.com/LazyBrain64) - a professional basketball bettor who bets only mainlines. That's right - no NBA props!This is a guy who bets his opinion, has lots of manual inputs into his model, and is doing it in what most consider to be one of the toughest markets in the industry. Justin not only drops a lot of betting wisdom, but also life wisdom while he expla
Masters Recap & Returning to "Sharp Taking" | Ep 151
GP tries to get back in the good graces of the sharp taking community while talking about the Masters. SP walks through the golf betting model he spun up just in time for the biggest event of the year. Some news goes the prediction markets way and the boys discuss their favorite books in the questions.0:00 MASTERS RECAP & QUESTIONS53:30 News1:14:30 Listener Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Po
Which Path Should You Choose in Betting/PMs & Golf Tick Size | Ep 150
In this episode we outline paths for people of all skill levels in the new betting/ predicting ecosystem. GP continues his twitter rant on deci-cent pricing in golf, and the boys answer the rest of the listener questions they missed last episode.0:00 PM paths for bettors of all skill levels38:45 News55:20 Deci-cent Pricing in Golf1:08:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by profess
Bet Like a Lawyer & Lumberyard AP Strategy w/ Alex | Ep149
Today we welcome Alex to the podcast (https://x.com/Landtrader8375). In his first podcast appearance he tells us about leaving his 9 year career in law for full-time betting, how he comes to a hypothesis on big spots that is rarely "wrong", and many fun dead edges and AP shenanigans that include ending up selling lumber after trying to get into real estate.0:00 Intro19:15 First 1st down
Exactly How to Start your First Automated Trading Project + PM Doom & Gloom | Ep 148
This episode covers a lot of recent news, walks you through how to get started with automated API interaction and muses on would you rather have a beer w/ the PM doomers or evangelists?0:00 What would your first API project be?24:45 News (Worst two weeks in PMs?)1:05:30 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjecti
How to Make a Living Betting on What Someone is Going to Say w/ Foster| Ep 147
For months our podcast has neglected one of the most interesting segments of prediction markets - "Mention Markets". Well no longer! Today we interview Foster, one of the best mention market traders currently operating.He talks about building a database for Football announcers, pricing Trump's speeches, and some hilarious stories from the mention market trenches. Can't miss! Fo
A Sustainable Approach to Downswings (+RFQ IDs) | Ep 146
We get deep in our feelings in this episode. SP and GP talk about some of their worst downswings and how they have learned to handle them. A long discussion of the pros & cons of requester ids follows and then some great Q&A.0:00 Downswings & Mixing Life + Betting41:15 RFQ IDs: Should they be shown?1:01:00 Rest of News1:12:50 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by profess
Why Some Stats Predict Better Than Others & Kalshi "Death Markets" | Ep 145
NERD ALERT!!We get back to our roots today and talk about how to go about finding stats that are predictive in sports modelling. The episode includes a deep dive into how Kalshi settled & communicated their "Khamenei out as leader" market. We touch on the issues w/ "last traded price" settlement and the similarities to the Cardi B. rules debacle. 0:00 Predictive Sports Stat
(Rebroadcast) How to Build a Simple Sports Betting Model | Ep 144
*This is a re-broadcast episode because of being unable to record because of travel. MANY FAMOUS PODCASTS DO THIS SO IT MUST BE OKAY. This episode is a good listen for those who are looking to build a basic sports model that spits out a useful number.Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model?We don't blame you. The little content there is out th
RFQ Lesson from Top Kalshi "Combo" Market Marker w/ Egzee | Ep 143
Today we have on college junior & top prediction market trader Eric (Egzee). Egzee started on OddsJam and quickly worked his way up to the top of Kalshi leaderboards as one of the biggest RFQ market makers in sports. He defends his decision to take an internship at a respected quant firm, and walks us through how he manages one of the biggest Kalshi MM operations as a solo-operator in college.
Super Bowl Recap, Cardi B-gate & Insider Trading Galore | Ep 142
The boys start to think insider trading MAY JUST BE A PROBLEM when thousands of minimum wage employees already know the resolution of 50 million contract markets. SP & GP also recap their superbowl betting experience on Kalshi and take questions.0:00 Intro1:45 GP & SP's Super Bowl betting27:15 Cardi B's Epic Performance47:00 Insider Trading on PMs1:01:14 Rest of News13:40 Q&A
Small Data Problems & Gambling Twitter Actuaries w/ Mr. PeanutBettor | Ep 141
IN THIS EPISODE WE ARE JOINED BY ESTEEMED GAMBLING TWITTER POSTER AND ORIGINATOR MR PEANUTBETTOR. LISTEN TO HEAR MANY SMART THINGS AND SOME FUNNY JOKES.0:00 Intro10:15 Trading at Deck Prism27:00 Originating57:00 Prediction Markets1:18:00 Listener Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the
How to Best Monetize Great Projections in 2026 (ETR Debate) | Ep 140
A heated debate broke out on Twitter between sharp bettors. On one end Establish the Run, a well respected business that sells information to bettors. On the other - sharp sports bettors who either use or have to deal with that information in their market.This debate highlights the fundamental issues that come with selling good information in sports betting, and more broadly the best way to moneti
A Gambling Man and a Family Man w/ Adam aka TheBeagleBets | Ep 139
This week we interview long-time professional gambler Adam aka BeagleBets (https://x.com/thebeaglebets).Adam quickly rose to the top of the Heads Up SNG ladder, playing $5k buy-ins before dropping out of college to pursue poker full time. From there his career spanned many eras, which got him to where he is today: betting NBA Player Props and betting live sports. Adam is a very kind to share an ho
What Props & Derivatives You Should Bet & DK Pick6 Scandal | Ep 138
In this episode the boys talk about how to go about selecting props & derivatives markets to focus on and how to get started w/ modeling these. The Pick6 past-post scandal takes up a good chunk of the news and the Q&A is very meaty!0:00 How to Pick Props to Bet27:00 DK Pick6 Past-post45:45 Other News1:01:45 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor Joh
Sports Betting Legend Turned Sports Market Maker Rufus Peabody Joins | Ep 137
You may know him from Bet The Process. You may know him as Dogname atop the Kalshi leaderboard. You may know him as the best golf bettor (RIP GP) around...Rufus Peabody joins the show this week to talk about his betting philosophy and his recent adventure into prediction markets. He's been winning at sports betting since 2008, and is still at the very top of the betting ecosystem today. Must
2025 Recap and 2026 Predictions + "Ins & Outs"| Ep 136
We cap off the year with a fun episode where SP and GP recap their 2025 betting year before setting some 2026 goals. The episode ends with 2026 industry predictions and some sappy feelings.0:00 Intro6:00 2025 Recap22:10 2026 "Ins & Outs"1:07:30 2026 PredictionsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections.
Internal Market Making & Simulation Elitism w/ Louie from NoVig | Ep 135
We did it. We bagged another big guest's first ever podcast appearance. You may know Louie from Twitter (https://x.com/LMastro99) - but if you don't, he has had great success on both sides of the counter as a sportsbook trader and NBA originator. He started at FanDuel before being one of the first people to join NoVig and growing their trading team w/ former guest BigBuckHunter.0:001:30
Hot Takes: Is "Directionally Correct" dead + Aging Curve in Betting? | Ep 134
Today we rip a hot takes episode and talk about how Kalshi has just invented the Parlay. Tons of great questions at the end - thanks for all those who asked a question!0:00 Intro2:20 Hot Takes35:00 News58:30 QuestionsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PE
Riggery & F*ckery in the Early Prediction Market Days w/ CSP Trading | Ep 133
This could be consider our first full Prediction Market focused guest. CSP Trading was an early MM on prediction markets before we had even heard of them. He walks us through the history of PMs through his experience trading on them and growing with the space to where they are now.0:00 Getting Started in PMs13:24 Early Prediction Market War Stories37:45 Insider Trading in PMs45:00 Getting Into Spo
When Manual > Automated & All Old Pick6 Strategies Revealed | Ep 132
SP and GP talk about times being manual has made them more money than being automated and have a huge post-mortem on the old version of Pick6 where they both lay out most of their strategies. News is crazy as always - Poly US coming, Kalshi & Robinhood breakup, Prime plays it straight w/ winning bettors.Then a big Q&A!0:00 Intro1:15 Why Being Manual is Sometimes Better Than Being Automated
Devig To Ball Knowledge While Live Betting w/ Pads | Ep 131
Huge day - we get Pads (https://x.com/padadiso) to come on his first podcast ever! Pads is one of the most successful bettors of the post-PASPA era, making most of his money live betting on sportsbooks and now exchanges. He talks live betting, joining discords, doing terrible things to Fliff and why it's almost impossible to replicate his edge.Thank you to Pads for coming on and thank you all
Lessons We Learned "Booking Bets" & FD/DK Defect | Ep 130
Today we share the biggest lessons we have learned from posting liquidity on exchanges and taking bets. GP has some more empathy for sportsbooks in some spots and none in others while SP is shocked with how few people have an opinion in today's sharp betting ecosystem.0:00 Things We Learned Posting Liquidity39:10 DK/FD Go for it on PMs50:00 Kalshi on PrizePicks & other news1:08:00 Listene
What Sports Bettors Can Learn From Casino APs w/ Richard Munchkin | Ep 129
AP of 50+ years, host of Gambling with an Edge and author of Gambling Wizards - Richard Munchkin (https://x.com/RWM21) joins the show. From his start as an AP in old Las Vegas to the end where he shares the most...interesting(?) Bayesian update, this episode is a ride. Richard's story telling is unmatched in the industry - and he has a career of professional gambling to draw content from. We
You're Probably Underbetting...Here's How You Bet More | Ep 128
We talk about why good gamblers bet too little in big spots, plus Polymarket coming to the US with low fees & why GP is on an anti-courtsiding tirade.We also give our take on why dating sites are like betting markets - and how to avoid adverse selection there.0:00 Intro1:15 Sizing Up32:00 News/Scandals/Fees1:00:45 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor
Betting Huge on Madden Sims & The LLWS w/ Isaac | Ep 127
Today we are joined by Isaac (https://x.com/Ias0801) to talk about his path to pro betting right out of college. He shares stories about how he cracked the madden sim betting market during covid, texted correlated parlays to his bookie (that got accepted) and his work now in the MLB and CBB. Enjoy!0:00 Intro/ Early Advantage Play8:00 Finding a Holy Grail Spot to Start Sports Betting21:45 How to St
How to Not Lose on Prediction Markets & Kalshi Outage | Ep 126
We had so many good questions we had to pivot from our main topic to do a multi-part Q&A/News episode. The first part of the podcast is questions that involve strategy around winning (and not getting crushed) on exchanges. Then news with the Kalshi outage and some other noteworthy items. And finally a mixed bag of questions at the end.0:00 Intro2:00 Prediction Market Power Hour56:20 News1:27:2
$400k PointsBet Heist & Exchange Warfare w/ Maple | Ep 125
You heard about him in Shippers episode. The person who leveraged a friendly VIP host and square looking action into a $400k win at PointsBet - a notoriously tight-fisted book.This week we welcome on the man, the myth, the legend Maple (https://x.com/maple420069) onto the podcast to talk about soft-book war stories and his evolution onto exchanges. Can't miss episode!0:00 Intro1:45 Intro to A
Failed Betting Projects & Kalshi Parlays | Ep 124
This episode SP and GP go over a few of the betting projects they started building that never came to fruition. The news is dominated by prediction markets - with a breakdown of the parlay product that Kalshi is offering. And we hit a few listener questions at the end!0:00 Intro4:00 Failed betting projects38:00 News1:26:00 Listener QuestionsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professiona
Beat Big Markets & Bottom Up Live Betting w/ Ant DeRosa | Ep 123
This episode we have on a true legend in the space, Ant DeRosa. Ant worked as a trader at some of the sharpest offshore books before switching sides of the counter and building one of the most successful betting groups currently operating. From dealing with line manipulation to the details behind finding alpha live that you won't see on an odds screen, this has it all. We even get dragged int
Most Important Lessons from Our Recent Guests | Ep 122
This week we debrief on some of the most important, common threads that ran through our interviews with our recent guests. Why are the vibes based approaches not that far from the data driven? Is anyone really a specialist? Why did three guests say no one can get more out of an account than them?All of this plus news and Q&A - Enjoy!0:00 Intro2:30 Account Maxxing as a Superpower10:20 Operation
Building an Unexploitable Betting & Trolling Strategy w/ The Shipper | Ep 121
Today we have on at times one of our harshest critics and at other times our biggest cheerleader, The Shipper (@shipthejustice on Twitter)Shipper is that rare person who was successful as a trader at a book and then as a professional bettor. This experience makes him one of the go to experts on the topics of account longevity, priming, and maxing account value. This episode he presents a compellin
Why Tracking Bets the Right Way Makes You Money & Some Great Q&A | Ep 120
SP says that there may be nothing more predictive of whether someone is a winning bettor than how diligently they track their bets.Is tracking your bets a magic pill that makes anyone profitable? It's not magic - but there are a lot of alpha generating benefits of tracking that go along with the important accounting hygiene and performance measuring. 00:00 – Why Track Your Bets? 05:00 – Tax
Vibes-Based Tennis Betting & CNN Stardom w/ Isaac Rose-Berman | Ep 119
This week we interview a man who wears many hats. TV Star, Tennis Bettor, and Author Isaac Rose-Berman.You may know him from the CNN gambling documentary, you may know him as roundrobin42 on twitter, or you may have seen him on Circle Back. But on this show we go deep into his betting first - learning a lot about betting tennis on the way. After that we have a discussion on news/ industry topics w
Sports Betting Simulations, CNN Gambling Doc & TSwift Engagement Insider Trading | Ep 118
Regardless of if you think we are in a simulation or not - there is no denying that simulations can make you money sports betting. GP & SP breakdown what a simulation model is, when you should use it, and how you can get started with your own sim this sports season.We get a little technical early - but don't worry, we get really un-technical in the news and Q&A (ending with an actual
Building a "Scheme Team" w/ Dr. Plop | Ep 117
We are joined by Casino AP turned Sports Bettor Dan aka Dr. Plop. Dan talks to us about getting into advantage play by multi-accounting Instacart signup bonuses. Then his journey continues through blackjack, slots, churn plays and finally ends up at "about 70%" sports betting.Dan now runs a team of 4 that at any moment could be sitting at an electronic horse racing machine or betting six
Scaling an Edge, NoVig Raises $18 Million & Polymarket Taps the Glass | Ep 116
Find an amazing edge yet still poor? If so - this episode aims to help you correct that. Along with advice on scaling an edge (including SP's vertical v. horizontal scaling lesson) - we break down a big week of industry news and field some questions regarding Kalshi, working with a group and GPs return to twitter.00:00 Live from Las Vegas – First Impressions02:15 Scaling an Edge: The Most Val
"I predict the injury report" - Pro NBA Bettor CalvinAndHobo Joins | Ep 115
NBA prop crusher Calvin (CalvinandHobo) joins the show this week to talk about what it takes to win as a ball-knower who doesn't have a model.Calvin had an interesting journey into professional betting that included becoming a cult hero on JuiceReel before he had to stop posting picks once he won too much and gained too many followers. (He explains why this is a big problem)Calvin doesn'
Networking w/ Winning Sports Bettors (it's not as bad as it sounds) | Ep 114
Unfortunately...talking to other people and being social can be really +EVIn this episode we help by giving a dive deep into the how and why of building strong partnerships in the sports betting world. From meeting the right people and forming a core team, to scaling through network effects, online presence, and industry events like BetBash — we cover the strategies, pitfalls, and real-world exper
Krushing Kalshi w/ Chris "Flupnolide" Dierkes (and Edge Graveyard) | Ep 113
We are joined by Chris "Flupnolide" Dierkes - the most profitable bettor on Kalshi this month and a professional bettor not afraid to bet huge on great spots.Chris talks about scaling his betting from being a solo-bettor using OddsJam to running one of the bigger groups in operation. He also enjoys mixing it up on Twitter under the handle @flupnolide where you can find him posting some o
Blow Your Offseason? Pay the Price!! & DK Prediction Market Move | Ep 112
After two weeks of bad news - the boys start to feel some hope this episode and explain how they have improved their betting during breaks in their sports. With the sports calendar at its lightest, they dig into why the offseason is a high-leverage window for bettors to optimize their workflows, trim dead weight, and tackle big projects. From cleaning code and cutting distractions to poking aroun
90% Trouble: How the New Tax Law Hits Gamblers w/ Gary Kondler | Ep 111
Are you relying on twitter to tell you if you should quite gambling or not following the gambling tax disaster in the BBB?In this episode we sit down with Gary Kondler of Kondler & Associates - the gambling industry leading tax and consulting firm - to discuss the changes in the bill.From the myths that exploded on Twitter to the real-life tax nightmares facing poker pros, slot whales, and DFS
Gambling State of the Union (Be like bugs and SURVIVE) | Ep 110
This week, GP and SP go deep on what's arguably the most pivotal week for the gambling world in years. From legislative crackdowns and lawsuits to tax chaos and rigging scandals, the crew delivers a comprehensive State of the Union for sports betting and its gray-market cousins. If you care about betting—legally, professionally, or recreationally—this is a must-listen. 0:00 – Opening Thought
Flaming Hot Sharp Betting Takes II & News We Got Wrong | Ep 109
We’re so back with part two of Flaming Hot Sharp Sports Betting Takes! We offer some preeeety spicy opinions on:Why executing an edge beats finding oneEmbracing high-hold markets and "one-way" betsThe value of betting first, asking questions laterWhy hating touts is no longer coolWhether being a pro bettor is a legit data science careerWhy going public with your gambling identity can pay
Bet Like a Bayesian & SP's DraftKings Beef | Ep 108
This week we learn how to make more money gambling from the lessons of "The Reverend" Thomas Bayes.His theorem is the backbone of every successful sports bettor (even if they don't know it).This week we walk through examples of priors, posteriors and general Bayesian betting hygiene. It's more electric than it sounds! Andrew Mack's Book: Amazon0:00 Bayesian Thinking Intro1
From the Yankees and Google to a Pro Gambler w/ Akash | Ep 107
Second guest episode of the SP era - with a guy living the dream. Akash worked in the front offices of the New York Yankees and Miami Dolphins as well as a Google data scientist before leaving it all behind to be a full-time bettor.This builds on our recent modeling episodes as we take a jump from simple/ regression based models into the AI/ML blackbox.You can find Akash in the GP Discord under th
How to Turn Your Projections into Probabilities (Distributions) & Poker Cheating Scandal | Ep 106
Have you ever projected a player to get 23.2 points and wondered if under 24.5 -115 was a +EV bet?The answer to this question and more can be found in this magic, exciting, adrenaline pumping thing called...distributions!This week the lads follow up their episode on making your own numbers with an episode on how to turn those numbers into probabilities. And the news section gets very speculative a
How to Start Modeling Sports & Are OddsJam Customers -EV? | Ep 105
Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model?We don't blame you. The little content there is out there on how to get started makes it sound impossible. But the reality is, in the beginning, it's rather straightforward.In this episode, the boys help you get started with your first sports betting model before getting into the news and Q&A0:0
DFS School for Sports Bettors & Every Winning Bettor is a Cheater? | Ep 104
GP slowly realizes he's a DFS fish as he recaps his high stakes PGA Championship lineup building strategy to SP. SP breaks down what a winning sports bettor needs to do to win in DFS (and vice-versa)SP then weighs in on Underdog allowing RTA following GP's rant last episode and the boys discuss why the state of Wyoming determined anyone who wins betting is a cheater.Questions range from
GP Origin Story, Underdog Allows RTA & Why No Sponsors | Ep 103
GP flies solo this week and takes the opportunity to ramble on about his journey from mediocre poker player to pretty good sports bettor. (This includes a quick double-up on the signing bonus he got in business school)The news is dominated by the Real Time Assistance tool ETR released for Underdog best ball drafts. If you think that's the story - you're wrong. Because Underdog comes out
Day in the Life of a Pro Degen & Making $50k a Year Without Scaling | Ep 102
This episode has it all. GP's childish morning routine, what music you should listen to while modeling, and some hot takes based on a cursory glance at the news.The Q&A is dominated by a great question at the end regarding how achievable year-over-year profits are by someone who never models or scales a betting group.Remember to join the discord (link below) if you want your question on a
Account Longevity Band-Aids & Long-Term Solutions + McPeek's McPicks | Ep 101
"How can I make my accounts last longer?"This is the question de jour - and in this episode, we discuss both answers to this question AND if this is even the right question to be asking...We also spend a lot of time discussing Caesers stiffing Josk McPeek $800k. This leads to interesting discussions on "when is a bet a bet", kiosk jamming, slow cashouts, and more.Then some grea
100th Episode Special! Sports Betting Content Breakdown & Mega Q&A | Ep 100
Very special 100th episode where GP and SP reflect on the current sports betting ecosystem, the goal of the podcast and the best way to incorporate sports betting content into your process.News includes a game-changing CFTC chair nomination, debate over a void at ProphetX, and the SAFE act keeps marching us towards our eventual doom.To cap it off - the longest Q&A in podcast history. We took a
Heated Backtesting Debate & Gambling GOAT Wins $60M in Texas Lotto | Ep 99
0:00 Intro1:20 Backtesting - All you need to know40:08 News1:09:00 Listener Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFo
Betting Big Events feat. The Masters & Why SGPs are an RG Solution? | Ep 98
0:00 Intro3:00 Betting Big Events56:38 News1:20:32 Listener Q&A1:44:10 Masters Locks (after the Masters started)Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twit
Edge Graveyard #1 w/ MetroPassMike + Squeezing Every Penny Out of an Account | Ep 97
Today we have a very special episode. The first "edge graveyard" where we bring on a guest, talk about their betting strategies - and most importantly all share some of our favorite dead edges.Today's guest is Mike, aka @MetroPassMike on Twitter. He's a very sharp bettor who was able to squeeze a quarter million dollars out of his PERSONAL LIMITED REC ACCOUNTS in 2024. Crazy st
How to Be Confident in an Edge & GP Outs Guy Who Stole $50k From Him | Ep 96
0:00 Intro1:30 How to Determine Confidence in Edges38:12 Robinhood under fire & sweeps updates55:36 Florida regulator "hit & runs" Prizepicks & Underdog1:06:48 What to do when exchanges show huge liquidity?1:16:41 Should there be minimum bet requirements? (No)1:26:30 Making life easier for P2s1:40:10 What to do when you get stiffed?1:52:45 How to increase your skills through
Don't Bet at Exchanges Like You do at DraftKings & Future of Pushup Bets | Ep 95
0:00 Intro3:00 What are exchanges and how do they work?28:34 Strategies for Profiting at Exchanges49:15 Robinhood Sports Betting55:36 Novelty Markets on Sweeps1:10:38 John Oliver on Sports Betting1:31:00 Q&A: Account Priming1:55:20 Q&A: PPH2:06:38 Q&A: Best time spent/ money made ratio and future episode topicsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor Joh
How to Keep Going When Hit With Sportsbook Limits and a ROUGH News Week for the Industry | Ep 94
0:00 Intro2:49 How to go from top down to bottom up betting48:13 SAFE Act1:01:38 Catastrophic week for Sweepstakes 1:13:17 Hardrock somehow not biggest sportsbook in Florida1:18:44 DK to enter prediction markets1:24:21 Should I be a bookmaker?1:29:27 What to do with limited accounts?1:43:15 Is peer-to-peer betting a good next step after getting hit with limits?Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, h
Adverse Selection Scares the Sh*t Out of Us and a Gambling Therapy Session | Ep 93
0:00 Intro2:25 Adverse Selection Deep Dive 40:35 Betting News1:14:35 How to Tell your Friends & Family You are a Pro Degen1:27:11 Live EV Betting v. Live Arbing1:34:25 Dealing with Downswings1:52:37 Why GP NO MORE PICKS?!?Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education avail
Flaming Hot Sharp Betting Takes, Day in the Betting Life & Why Exchanges are Scary | Ep 92
0:00 Intro2:25 Kelly is flat out wrong11:50 Odds screens are useless19:00 Account priming is astrology for dudes31:55 You need to be technical to be a great originator39:00 Buy more picks, subscribe to more discords45:50 Sharp books - not as sharp as we think?52:40 Hot takes that missed the cut59:00 NASCAR Parimutuel1:20:40 Sweeps update/ WPT Gold1:28:20 How to get betting to fit into your life1:3
Specialist v. Generalist, Putting Your $ to Work, and Can a "Dunce" Win Betting? | Ep 91
0:00 Intro1:33 Is it more profitable to be a "Specialist" or "Generalist" in sports betting?42:16 iGaming legal blows a bad thing for sports betting?53:51 How can sports betting skills transfer to other ventures / life?1:04:55 Should you bonus churn with a $200k bankroll?1:14:50 When should you take your bankroll and invest it elsewhere?1:32:26 Does 1-click bet burn your accoun
Live Betting, Picking Markets, and Why Gamblers are Black Sheep | Ep 90
0:00 Intro0:33 What Sports Betting Market Should YOU Attack?26:45 Super Bowl Betting29:00 Health of Industry35:45 Sweeps Trouble45:40 Listener Q &A46:15 Live Betting Tips57:45 Are Futures Worth it?1:09:15 How to Betsize for Parlays1:16:40 Automation v. Hand Adjustments - How to Balance1:32:06 Will Perception of Sports Betting & Sports Bettors Get Less Negative?Welcome to The Risk Takers Po
New Co-Host, Where Alpha Comes From & Prediction Markets in Sports Betting | Ep 89
Wow - very important and historic episode. My good friend SportsProjections joins the podcast as a permanent co-host and we start to actually have structure to our episodes.Each week we will bring you the same educational deep-dives as always, but now we will be addressing any news that's relevant to someone looking to make money betting and answering audience Q&A.If you want your questio
Small Sample Sizes DO Matter - Here's Why | Ep 88
You are losing but being told it's "just variance". Is that true? Is there anything you can do to prove or disprove that? And is there anything you can do to snap a losing streak?All of your questions answered in this episode on how to interpret small samples of extreme results!Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and
Big Mistakes to Avoid When Making a Sports Betting Model | Ep 87
Today is for the nerds! Let's talk about the pre-model checklist you need to avoid some of the biggest mistakes I have made in my sports betting career.Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you
So You Want to be a Part-Time Gambler? | Ep 86
Did my last episode make you think being a full-time bettor sucks? Then this episode may be for you!Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.c
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