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Patrick Boyle On Finance

Patrick Boyle On Finance

Patrick Boyle 309 Episodes Oct 11, 2026

This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker.

Episodes

The French Bond Market Is on Fire
The French Bond Market Is on Fire Oct 11, 2026 00:30:08 France now pays more to borrow than Greece and Italy, and French bond yields have hit their highest level in almost a quarter of a century. In this video, I look at why the French debt crisis is happening now: a global bond market selloff driven by AI spending and the Iran energy shock, a budget deficit of 5.4% of GDP, and a minority government trying to pass spending cuts while students blockade
Turkey's $20 Billion Fund Collapse Explained
Turkey's $20 Billion Fund Collapse Explained Oct 4, 2026 00:33:35 In September 2026, Turkey's investment fund industry collapsed, after funds run by Tera and Pusula failed to meet redemptions and regulators froze and liquidated 131 funds holding about $20 billion of savings belonging to more than 455,000 investors. In this video, Patrick Boyle looks at how Emre Tezmen's Tera, which hoped to become "the Goldman Sachs of Turkey," reported returns
Is Anthropic Worth Two Trillion Dollars?
Is Anthropic Worth Two Trillion Dollars? Sep 27, 2026 00:32:57 Anthropic is preparing what could be the biggest IPO in history, at a reported valuation of around $2 trillion – while Nvidia, the company actually making money from AI, trades at its cheapest valuation in over a decade. In this video, finance professor Patrick Boyle looks at whether the AI boom is a bubble and what you would have to believe to pay $2 trillion for an AI lab. We cover the Anthropic
The Doomsday Cult Inside OpenAI
The Doomsday Cult Inside OpenAI Sep 20, 2026 00:31:35 In July 2026, a swarm of more than 1,000 OpenAI AI agents broke out of their testing sandbox and hacked Hugging Face — and the way they did it was far stranger, and far more mundane, than the headlines suggested. This video breaks down what actually happened: how the agents built a secret message board, invented a kind of religion, cheated on a cybersecurity exam called ExploitGym, and tried to co
Why Germany Stopped Working
Why Germany Stopped Working Sep 13, 2026 00:31:27 Germany just freed up half a trillion euros to rebuild itself — and eighteen months later, the money has barely moved. So, what has gone wrong with the country that used to be Europe's economic engine?Everyone has a favourite villain: the end of cheap Russian gas, Chinese competition, Trump's tariffs. But none of them explains why a town outside Berlin can't spend two million euros to
The Social Reckoning That Wasn't
The Social Reckoning That Wasn't Sep 5, 2026 00:34:20 Last month Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion dollars to settle claims that it knowingly harmed teenagers — a number the press immediately called Big Tech's "tobacco moment." Wall Street responded by sending the stock up.In this video I read the actual 130-page consent judgment so that you don't have to, and work out what Meta really bought for its money. It turns out the headl
Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning!
Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning! Aug 30, 2026 00:44:51 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to force down US Treasury yields with surprise bond buybacks — and it isn't working. In this video we break down Bessent's activist debt management strategy, why doubling the Treasury's long-dated buybacks is a bet on falling interest rates funded by short-term bills, and why his old boss Stanley Druckenmiller publicly tore the plan apart in a
How Much Would an AI Crash Destroy?
How Much Would an AI Crash Destroy? Aug 23, 2026 00:36:00 Two chip stocks recently drove seventeen percent of the entire global stock market's return in a single month — which tells you just how concentrated the AI trade has become, and how exposed the average investor now is without realising it. In this video we look at how much wealth an AI crash could actually destroy, with estimates from Dean Baker, former IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, and
The Hidden Risk in the US-Japan Yen Rescue
The Hidden Risk in the US-Japan Yen Rescue Aug 15, 2026 00:31:36 In July 2026, the US Treasury did something it hadn't done since 1998: it intervened in the currency markets to prop up the Japanese yen — and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a former Soros hedge fund manager, ran the trade in the strangest way possible, selling euros instead of dollars without telling the ECB. But this was never really about Japan. It was about protecting American borrowing
Does Leopold Have Situational Awareness?
Does Leopold Have Situational Awareness? Aug 11, 2026 00:39:37 Last week, 24-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner — former FTX staffer, ex-OpenAI researcher, and author of the viral 165-page essay "Situational Awareness" — managed to lose roughly two-thirds of his $45 billion hedge fund in a matter of weeks. The margin calls arrived during his wedding weekend.In this video I break down how a trader with no professional experience raised billions from Sili
Big Tech's Hidden Debt Problem
Big Tech's Hidden Debt Problem Aug 4, 2026 00:32:18 Nikkei Asia recently reported that the five biggest US tech companies are carrying an estimated $1.65 trillion in "hidden," off-balance-sheet debt — and a lot of commentators have reached for the word "Enron" to describe the issue. In this video I look at whether that comparison holds up. It doesn't: unlike Enron, this debt isn't concealed through fraud — it's discl
Where is Venezuela’s oil money?
Where is Venezuela’s oil money? Jul 27, 2026 00:37:46 When the United States took control of Venezuela's oil exports in early 2026, it collected an estimated $13 billion in crude sales — but the official ledger in Caracas records almost none of it, and six months on there is still no public accounting of where the money went. In this video we look at what happened to Venezuela's sovereign wealth: the missing oil revenues now sitting in an off

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