Patrick Boyle On Finance
This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker.
Episodes
When a Housing Boom Turns to Bust
A three-bedroom "dunger" in New Zealand with peeling paint and boarded-up windows sold for 1.81 million dollars at the peak of the boom. A few years later, prices had fallen by as much as a third in real terms, recent buyers were trapped in negative equity, and thousands of construction firms had gone under. In this video we look at how a national housing boom turns into a bust, why hous
This Is Probably Fine!
US 30-year Treasury yields just hit 5.2% — the highest level since July 2007. UK gilt yields are at levels not seen since 1998. Japanese bond yields are at record highs. Something is happening in global bond markets, and it's not just about inflation.In this video I explain what's driving the global rise in long-term borrowing costs, why the era of free money is probably over, and what fis
The Most Unprofitable IPO in Wall Street History
This week, SpaceX filed the prospectus for what is expected to be the largest IPO in history. The document is extraordinary — part financial disclosure, part science fiction, and part governance structure that a corporate law professor has described as offering shareholders "no votes, no sales, and no suits." We look at the numbers, the products that don't yet exist, the AI business
What Trump's China Visit Actually Achieved.
As Donald Trump and Xi Jinping wrap up their summit in Beijing with little more to show for it than a few awkward handshakes, the media is left wondering where the big breakthrough went. But as we explore in this video, the failure of the "beans and Boeings" summit wasn’t a political failure—it was a certainty. Relying on the insights of economist Michael Pettis, we break down why trade
The Dumbest Takeover Bid
GameStop — the meme stock famous for selling physical video game discs to people who no longer buy physical video game discs — has made an unsolicited 56 billion dollar offer to acquire eBay. GameStop is worth approximately 12 billion dollars. The offer is non-binding, the financing includes a highly confident letter from a Canadian bank, and the shares required to complete the deal have not yet b
The Unanchored Central Banker: Manoj Pradhan on Inflation, Demographics, and Why AI Won't Save Us
Today, Manoj Pradhan of Talking Heads macro and Fundamenta capital returns to the show to discuss his new book, co-authored with Charles Goodhart, which serves as a highly anticipated sequel to their prescient work, The Great Demographic Reversal. If you thought the recent era of high interest rates and sticky inflation was just a temporary post-pandemic blip, Manoj is here to explain why the futu
Is Inflation About to Get Much Worse?
U.S. consumer sentiment has fallen to a 74-year low. Brent crude is above $125 a barrel. And several highly credible economists had been warning that inflation was coming back — long before the first missile was fired. In this video, we look at the structural forces — demographic, fiscal, and geopolitical — that are making inflation much harder to control, and why central banks may no longer have
Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster
The stock market just hit a record high. Meanwhile, captains in the Persian Gulf are turning off their transponders and sneaking through the Strait of Hormuz in the dead of night. Only five ships made it through yesterday. The seaborne oil buffer that insulated the global economy in the early weeks of the conflict is now completely exhausted, and the knock-on effects - from jet fuel shortages in E
The Bizarre World of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have been described as "truth machines" that produce more accurate forecasts than traditional polling. In this video we look at how they actually work, why the federal government is fighting individual states over who gets to regulate a bet on a football game, how a soldier allegedly used classified military intelligence to win money on a cry
How Did the Metaverse Fail So Badly?
In October 2021, Mark Zuckerberg stood in front of the world and announced that the future of human interaction would be something called the metaverse. He was so confident about this that he renamed his three-billion-user company after it. Over the following four years, Meta spent $88 billion building a virtual world that almost nobody visited, featuring avatars that — for reasons that were never
Canada is a Warning to the Rest of the World!
Canada has every advantage a country could ask for — vast natural resources, a stable democracy, world-class universities, and a highly educated population. So why has its GDP per capita fallen from 80% of the American level to around 70% in little more than a decade? In this video, we look at how a protected economy, a housing market that rewarded sitting still over building things, and a product
The Crisis Hidden Inside the Iran War
Equity markets have spent the past month treating the war in Iran like a minor inconvenience — a 'buy the dip' opportunity rather than a structural crisis. But while stock traders debate whether the President will 'TACO out' of the conflict, the real story is unfolding in the commodities that never make the headlines: LNG, helium, fertilizer, and aluminium. With the Strait of Hormu
Is Private Credit a Threat to The Financial System
While the world is distracted by global conflict, a panic is building in the private credit market. In this video, we go inside the opaque world of Private Credit - examine the "Golden Age" of lending that is rapidly turning into a slow-motion crisis. From the "volatility laundering" tricks used by managers to hide billion-dollar losses to the "Exit Trap" currently ca
SpaceX IPO Scandal
SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation for what could be the largest IPO in history. In this video, we examine how Elon Musk is folding a money-burning AI startup and a struggling social media platform into a rocket company to justify a price tag that defies financial gravity. From the engineering absurdity of "orbital data centers" and lunar railguns to the structural manipulati
The UK is a Warning to the Rest of the World
Why has the United Kingdom transitioned from being a global economic powerhouse to a stark warning for other advanced nations. While the United States economy has surged ahead of the rest of the world since the 2008 financial crisis, Britain has remained trapped in a "productivity puzzle" driven by a series of compounding errors - from a punitive tax code that discourages its most skille
The Winners & Losers from Trumps New Tariffs
In this episode, we explore the legal and economic fallout of the Supreme Court's landmark decision to strike down the "Liberation Day" tariffs, a move that has left the administration scrambling for a "Plan B". We dive into the "David vs. Goliath" story of VOS Selections, the tiny wine importer that successfully challenged the President's use of emergency pow
Bitcoin Is Crashing and Exchanges Freezing Up
This podcast explores the 2026 "Deep Freeze" of the crypto market, analyzing why the "digital gold" thesis has failed to protect investors as Bitcoin lags behind the S&P 500 total returns. We dive into the "Victory Paradox"—the irony that Bitcoin’s institutional acceptance through Wall Street ETFs and a "crypto-friendly" presidency has tethered it to tra
The Co-Conspirators: The Men the FBI Tried to Hide
Jeffrey Epstein was a college dropout with no formal financial training who amassed a fortune worth hundreds of millions of dollars and mingled with presidents and billionaires. Drawing on court records and media investigations we trace where Epstein's money came from and what happened to it? From his first job as a high school teacher to involvement in a Ponzi scheme, secretive offshore firms
The Devil Himself! - The Worst of The Epstein Files
In today’s podcast, we examine the aftermath of the massive January 2026 data dump—three million pages of Jeffrey Epstein’s investigative files that the Department of Justice maintains contain no incriminating “client list”. We dive into the “Social Ponzi Scheme” that enabled decades of abuse, exploring the suspicious real estate transfers, cryptocurrency custodian links, and the international cri
American TikTok is Censoring Everything
On January 22, 2026, TikTok officially became an "American" company. The $14 billion deal, brokered by a consortium of politically connected investors, was supposed to end the years of national security concerns and protect the data of 170 million US users. Instead, the new TikTok USDS Joint Venture has stumbled out of the gate with a series of "technical glitches" that look su
Does Europe Have a Financial Nuclear Option?
The recent Greenland crisis at Davos 2026 has shattered transatlantic trust, forcing Europe to confront a terrifying new reality: the need for strategic autonomy from the United States. Faced with what it views as transactional coercion, Brussels is readying an arsenal of economic countermeasures, ranging from a "trade bazooka" targeting U.S. tech firms to the highly publicized "fin
"Will No One Rid Me of This Turbulent Priest?": Trump’s Fed War
In a highly unusual move - the Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. As America faces a high-stakes standoff over the future of the Federal Reserve, the traditional independence of the nation’s central bank is under direct attack. This video explores the intensifying war between the White House and Fed Chair, over a $2.5 billion headqua
Trump vs. The World
Last week, the White House decided to pivot from "America First" to "America Everywhere." It began on Saturday morning with a 150-aircraft military strike to serve what Secretary of State Marco Rubio described as a "routine law enforcement warrant"—proving once and for all that if you have a large enough aircraft carrier, every parking ticket is technically a tactical
YouTube Censorship: The Video They Didn't Want You to See!
Two days after its release, my analysis of the Epstein files was on track to break every record on this channel. Then the yellow dollar sign appeared, and the video flatlined.In this video, we explore how algorithmic demonetization has evolved into a form of "soft censorship." It isn't a conspiracy, but a broken business model that taxes serious journalism in favor of "brand saf
The Epstein Files are Worse Than You Think!
The first two batches of the Epstein files have finally been released, and the revelations are explosive. For decades, the media and the justice system ignored the most basic question: Who helped him? Now, thanks to thousands of pages of newly released DOJ documents, we know that there were the co-conspirators. In this video, we look through the latest evidence to expose the network of co-conspira
Why the EV Revolution Just Stalled
Three years ago, the global auto industry was gripped by a collective hallucination. CEOs promised us that the internal combustion engine would be dead by 2035 and that legacy automakers were just one battery factory away from a trillion-dollar valuation.That narrative has now collided with economic reality.In this video, we analyze the collapse of the "inevitability" narrative. We look
Elon Musk Admits DOGE Was a Failure!
DOGE promised to cut $2 trillion from the U.S. budget. Instead, it delivered chaos, memes, and a black eye—literally. In this video, we unpack Elon Musk’s candid post-mortem on the Department of Government Efficiency, why the savings never showed up, and how the “Manhattan Project of our time” turned into a bottle rocket. From the Wall of Receipts to the IRS meltdown and USAID’s woodchipper moment
The Infinite Money Glitch is Broken!
For years, firms like MicroStrategy turned buying Bitcoin into a corporate cheat code—raising billions, pumping token prices, and fueling meme-driven hype. But the magic loop has snapped. In this video, we break down why the “infinite money glitch” stopped working, how leveraged ETFs magnified losses, and why even Michael Saylor is now hoarding dollars. From gamma trades to meme economics, this is
AI and the Death of the Career Ladder
For decades, a university degree was the golden ticket to a stable career and upward mobility. That promise is breaking down. Graduate unemployment is rising, entry-level jobs are disappearing, and automation is hollowing out the first rung of the corporate ladder.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives Fo
Does OpenAI expect a Government Bailout?
OpenAI has signed $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments, but how do they plan to pay for it? Are government subsidies and taxpayer-backed guarantees the next step? In this video, we dive into the financing gymnastics behind the AI revolution, the lobbying for federal support, and why tech firms are pitching AI as “too important to fail.”Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:
Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage Plan: What You MUST Know!
Is Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage Plan the answer to America’s housing affordability crisis—or a financial trap? In this video, we break down the economics, politics, and history behind ultra-long mortgages.You’ll learn:* Why a 50-year mortgage might not lower monthly payments as promised* How interest rates and risk pricing change with longer loan terms* The hidden costs: slower equity growth, higher l
Elon Musk's Anti Woke Encyclopedia
Elon Musk says his new online encyclopedia Grokipedia will fix Wikipedia’s flaws by replacing human editors with AI. But can a chatbot really deliver “the whole truth and nothing but the truth” as he says? In this video, we dive into the battle between Wikipedia’s messy, transparent consensus and Grokipedia’s algorithmic certainty.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:
China’s Rare Earth Chokehold!
In this video, we explore how China’s dominance in rare earth elements has become a powerful geopolitical tool—and why the United States is struggling to catch up. From the Mountain Pass mine in California to Apple’s $500 million recycling push, we unpack the strategic importance of rare earths in everything from electric vehicles and smartphones to fiber optics and missile systems.We also look at
Is AI’s Circular Financing Inflating a Bubble?
The AI boom isn’t just about algorithms — it’s about money, power, and a race to build infrastructure on a scale we’ve never seen before. In this weeks podcast, we break down the circular deals between OpenAI, Nvidia, Amazon, Anthropic, and even Elon Musk’s business empire — and ask the hard questions: Who’s paying for this? Where will the electricity come from? And is the industry building a Möbi
Private Equity’s Quiet Crisis!
Private equity has long promised smooth returns, operational excellence, and sophisticated diversification. But behind the pitch decks and performance charts lies a growing crisis. In this video, we explore:🔹 Why private equity firms are struggling to exit investments🔹 The illusion of stability created by stale pricing🔹 The role of leverage in driving returns — and fragility🔹 The push into 401(k)s
The Chainsaw Stalls: Can Milei Cut Through Argentina’s Currency Collapse?
Argentina’s economy is in crisis—again. President Javier Milei’s reforms slashed inflation and balanced the budget, but now the peso is under siege. In this video, we unpack the $20 billion U.S. bailout, the speculative pressure on Argentina’s currency, and the political risks ahead of the October 26 midterms.We’ll look at:Why the U.S. Treasury is buying pesos for the first time in decadesHow Mile
AAA Rated Junk: What Tricolor and First Brands Reveal About Credit Markets!
Two companies collapsed last month. One sold used cars, the other distributed brake pads and spark plugs. Both issued debt rated AAA. Now their bonds are trading at cents on the dollar—and Wall Street is pretending not to notice.In this video, we dig into down the bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group to understand what they reveal about private credit, and why supposedly safe s
The End of Legal Immigration?
Is America Closing the Door on Global Talent?Donald Trump’s new $100,000 fee on H-1B visa applications has sent shockwaves through the tech industry, universities, and foreign governments. In this video, we unpack the legal, economic, and political fallout — from panics at airports to diplomatic blowback, from the Hyundai factory raid to the eerie silence of Silicon Valley CEOs. Is this the end of
Are the Rich Really Leaving Britain?
Are Britain’s millionaires really fleeing the country—or is the “exodus” just a statistical mirage?This video digs into the numbers behind the headlines, from the much-quoted Henley & Partners migration report to the real impact of the UK’s non-dom reforms. We’ll look at what’s actually driving high earners to consider leaving, how tax policy shapes behavior, and why trust in government and va
The Book That Wasn’t Supposed to Exist - Epstein's Birthday Book Released!
In 2003, Ghislaine Maxwell compiled a 238-page leather-bound book for Jeffrey Epstein — filled with letters, sketches, poems, and photos from billionaires, politicians, scientists, and celebrities. This book was never meant to be public. But now, thanks to the House Oversight Committee, it’s part of the public record — and it’s worse than anyone expected.We’ll also explore the deeper questions: Wh
New Meme Stocks Just Dropped!
This summer, a new trend hit Wall Street: Chinese meme stocks. Promoted in WhatsApp groups, Reddit threads, and even under fake YouTube comments, a group of obscure Chinese companies soared — and then collapsed — wiping out billions in investor savings. In this podcast, we explore how how this happened and look at a chinese biotech stock which briefly reached a $38 billion valuation without sellin
Is AI Slop Killing the Internet?
AI chatbots are replacing search engines—and in the process, they’re gutting the economics of journalism, reviews, and the open internet. In this video, we explore how tools like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google’s AI Overviews are intercepting audiences, scraping content without compensation, and threatening the viability of independent news and trusted information. From collapsing traffic to lawsuits
The Mortgage Divide: Why America’s Housing Market Is Splitting in Two!
Why are some homeowners thriving while others are struggling to keep up? In this video, we explore how America’s housing market has fractured—creating a sharp divide between those who locked in low mortgage rates and those buying today at much higher costs.We’ll unpack:The lock-in effect and its impact on geographic mobilityWhy millennials face deeper inequality within their own generationHow rent
15% to the Treasury: Trump’s Nvidia Export Kickback!
In weeks podcast, we unpack Donald Trump’s controversial deal with Nvidia and AMD — a 15% revenue-sharing arrangement that allows U.S. AI chips to be exported to China. Is this a clever geopolitical strategy or a dangerous precedent that monetizes national security?We explore:How the deal was brokered and what it means for U.S. trade policyLegal and constitutional concerns surrounding export contr
Sales Down, Pay Up: Inside Tesla’s Strange New Reality!
Tesla’s sales are falling across the globe—from the UK to China to California. So why did the board just hand Elon Musk a $29 billion pay package? In this video, we break down the contradictions at the heart of Tesla’s current moment: collapsing demand, the Cybertruck debacle, the robotaxi fantasy, and a boardroom that seems more loyal to Musk than to shareholders.We’ll explore:Why Tesla’s fundame
Is the Global Trading System Breaking Down?
In this weeks podcast, we examine the implications of Trump’s latest trade deals —from the one-sided EU deal to politically charged moves against Brazil. Are the deals being structured to exclude China from global supply chains and are these tariffs just about trade, or something more? We explore how constant changes are disrupting business activity, whether manufacturing is really coming back to
Epstein - Follow The Money!
Jeffrey Epstein was a college dropout with no formal financial training who amassed a fortune worth hundreds of millions of dollars and mingled with presidents and billionaires. Drawing on court records and media investigations we trace where Epstein's money came from and what happened to it? From his first job as a high school teacher to involvement in a Ponzi scheme, secretive offshore firms
The Mirage of Megaprojects: Why the West Keeps Getting Infrastructure Wrong
Britain once built world-class infrastructure with speed and purpose—now it plans ideas like a £24 billion extension cords to Morocco that are unlikely to ever work. This video dives into the rise and fall of the Xlinks Morocco–UK Power Project, exploring how overcomplication, bespoke design, and regulatory gridlock have turned modern megaprojects into cautionary tales. From fish discos at Hinkley
How Jane Street Made $4.3 Billion in India—Then Got Banned!
Jane Street, a prominent quantitative trading firm, has been at the center of controversy in India regarding its options trading activities. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), have accused Jane Street of market manipulation and temporarily banned the firm from accessing the Indian securities market and are seeking to recover substantial profits, allegedly earned through these activ
Bitcoin on the Balance Sheet: Why Companies Are Turning to Crypto as a Treasury Strategy
As Bitcoin surges into the financial mainstream, a growing number of companies — from obscure microcaps to global tech giants — are transforming themselves into crypto-holding entities. This video explores the rise of the corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy, tracing its origins with MicroStrategy’s dramatic pivot, the global wave of imitators, and the political entanglements reshaping the crypto l
How Big Tech Is Quietly Taking Over AI (Without Mergers)
In the race to dominate generative AI, Big Tech firms haven’t just been building, they’ve been buying. But there’s something strange about most of the deals that they have struck. Companies like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia are embedding themselves deep within the AI ecosystem through strategic investments, exclusive partnerships, and talent acquisitions- with deals that stop just s
Trader Rates Biggest Wall Street Films
Patrick Boyle, a former Wall Street trader, rates the biggest finance movies like "The Wolf of Wall Street," "The Big Short," "Rogue Trader" and "American Psycho" for realism.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways T
America’s Tax on Foreign Investors - Section 899
As the Senate decides on Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Budget, a lesser-known provision tucked into the House-approved bill has drawn attention from Wall Street.The measure, known as Section 899, would allow the U.S. to add a new tax of up to 20% on foreigners with U.S. investments, including multinational companies operating in the U.S.Some analysts call the provision a “revenge tax” due to it
The Trump Musk Blowup!
Donald Trump and Elon Musk have been locked in a public fight after Musk spent days bashing Trump's "big, beautiful bill" — a multi-trillion dollar budget key to unlocking the president's agenda currently being voted on in the Senate. In return, the president threatened to cut the federal government's contracts with Musk's companies, including SpaceX.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floo
Art Market Collapse?
Why did the star lot of the spring season, a bronze head by the master sculptor Alberto Giacometti, fail to sell at Sotheby’s?Alberto Giacometti’s 1955 bust, “Grande tête mince" (“Big Thin Head”), carried a pre-sale estimate of $70 million in Sotheby’s Modern evening auction. The auctioneer started the bidding at $59 million dollars. But no one bid - the piece went unsold. It was the second high-p
The Alarming Rise in Global Debt!
Developed economies around the world have been growing their debts over the last twenty-five years. This was less of a problem when interest rates were close to zero but in the era of trade wars, lower credit ratings and higher interest rates, debt is more expensive to issue and service. Bond investors have worried that governments are addicted to debt for quite some time, and recent drama in the
Can Trump Cut Prescription Prices?
Donald Trump has promised to slash the US’s high prescription medication prices by as much as 80 per cent with an executive order that seeks to force other countries to pay more for their medicines.“Americans will no longer be forced to pay almost three times more for the exact same medicines, often made in the exact same factories,” the order said. “As the largest purchaser of pharmaceuticals, Am
The Biggest Wealth Transfer In History is Happening Right Now!
This week, let's talk about the great wealth transfer, what this means for the economy, and why millennials are expected to become the wealthiest generation in history.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.
Why Is Russia's Economy Growing?
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, its economy has surpassed most expectations. Last year, Russia’s economy grew more than the United States and Europe and on top of that Russian unemployment is at a record low. What is causing this growth and how are wartime economies different? Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: http
America's Shopping Addiction!
For decades, the American consumer has powered not just the world's biggest economy but the entire global economy. According to the World Bank – Americans make up around one third of global consumer spending but are only 4% of the global population. We shouldn't be too surprised by this – Americans are amongst the most productive workers in the world and thus are amongst the best paid – th
Is China Dumping the Dollar? - And is Ray Dalio Right about Reserve Currencies?
In the wake of Trump's liberation day tariffs, stocks, bonds and the US dollar collapsed all at once as investors started dumping American assets. Some commentators argued that China might be behind the selling to put the US government under pressure. In this week's podcast let's discuss if it is wise to sell US assets should investors demand a risk premium, is Ray Dalio is right about how reserve
Panic In the Car Market - Americans Rush to Beat Tariffs!
Americans have ben rushing to buy new cars as President Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported cars and car parts remains in effect despite the deferral of other country-based taxes that were announced last week. Analysts are predicting a drop in vehicle sales for 2025, higher new and used car prices, and increased industry costs of more than $100 billion dollars. How will you be affected by Trump's
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Transform Global Trade?
President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April second were more severe than the market expected. On top of a 10 per cent universal minimum tariff, the new regime includes significantly higher tariffs for most major trading partners and brings US effective tariff rates to levels we have not seen since the early 1900s. How will Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs transform global trade
Is Elon Musk's Business Empire Collapsing?
Elon Musk once described competition for his businesses as non-existent, but today the two businesses that underpin his corporate empire - Tesla and SpaceX, are facing more and more competition. In todays video we examine if Elon Musk's business empire is collapsing?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3
Why Are Birthrates Plummeting Worldwide?
Birth rates are plummeting worldwide – and while this might seem like nothing new – as it has been the case in developed countries for quite some time. The thing that is interesting is that we are seeing declining birth rates everywhere and the standard explanations that you have heard in the past don’t really hold up.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Der
Saudi Arabia's Megaproject Disaster!
Saudi Arabia's Neom megaprojects are running into major financial problems according to The Wall Street Journal.After more than $50 billion dollars has been spent the fantasy city has collided with reality.Costs have soared, delays are constant, and the capital expenditure estimates to complete the projects by 2080 have ballooned to $8.8 trillion dollars, which is over 25 times the kingdom'
Germany's Historic Debt Deal!
European markets rallied sharply this week as German borrowing costs soared after the country’s new leaders announced a historic deal to loosen its “debt brake” rule to boost spending on defense.The interest rate on German government bonds saw their biggest daily increase since October 1998.The Dax 30 index, which tracks the largest German companies, rose by 3.5% as stock prices also leapt in othe
Why Are Politicians So Old?
The average American is 39 years old - which is half the age of the sitting president - Donald Trump. When Ronald Reagan was inaugurated at 69 years old, he became the oldest person to have ever served as president. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are even older and are now - the two oldest men to ever be inaugurated as president. The average ages in the House and Senate at 58 and 64, are significantly
Argentina's Memecoin Disaster
Argentina’s president Javier Milei has been rocked by a scandal over his promotion of a memecoin called $LIBRA which soared in value before collapsing last week, triggering lawsuits and calls for impeachment.Buyers of the cryptocurrency accused the coin’s creators of - what is known as a “rug pull” scheme, a type of crypto pump and dump scheme - where the promoters draw in buyers, only to stop tra
The Dumbest Megaprojects!
From skyscrapers in the middle of nowhere, to man-made islands that are sinking into the sea. And from abandoned buildings to foolish transportation infrastructure - let's look at the world's most useless megaprojects.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To
Trump’s Tariff Wars - What Happens Next?
Last weekend Donald Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10 per cent levy on imports from China. Canadian oil was hit at a lower rate of 10 per cent. The duties will take effect from Tuesday. Just days later these tariffs were suspended.Trump said the actions were in response to the “major threat” posed by the flow of migrants and drugs into
DeepSeek - How a Chinese AI Startup Shook Silicon Valley
On Monday, over a trillion dollars was wiped off the US stock market due to the appearance of a Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek.
The release of a new reasoning model, known as R1, led investors to question US dominance in tech, their expectations around future AI capex while also raising the prospect that China might beat Silicon Valley at its own game.
The new DeepSeek model c
The South Sea Bubble
1720 was a year of two bubbles and a plague - The Mississippi Company in France –and the South Sea Bubble in England were the first large scale financial bubbles on record. In September 1720 - when the bubbles burst, England and France were plunged into economic and political crisis's. These were amongst the first examples of financial boom and bust cycles and were the events that gave rise to
The Economic Toll of The Los Angeles Wildfires
The Los Angeles wildfires have destroyed more than 12,000 structures and at least 24 people have died with more unaccounted for as multiple wildfires, fueled by severe drought conditions and strong winds, continue to burn. Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs estimate that the destruction will cost insurers as much as $30 billion dollars and after accounting for non-insured damages, the total costs will
How Would Mass Deportations Affect the US Economy?
Donald Trump has promised to conduct “the largest deportation effort in American history,” no matter what it costs—but the price tag may be bigger than expected.
In today's video we look at a history of US border control and the economic costs of deporting more than six percent of the US workforce while the US workforce ages.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3
Is Electrification Killing the Auto Industry?
For years, the auto industry has been hyping the transition to electric vehicles with optimistic sales forecasts for electric models and huge growth projections. Investors pumped up valuations for automakers, based on their visions for an electric future.
Now the hype is dwindling, and companies are again cheering consumer choice. Automakers from Ford Motor and General Motors to Mercedes-Benz, Vo
2024 - The Financial Year in Review
Here's a look back on some of the most impactful events in markets during 2024.
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Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Swamped by Rules! - Which Ones Should Go?
There is a long history of regulation and deregulation where big scandals provide the catalyst for new rules, and then the realization that the rules are possibly excessive has caused them to be rolled back.
In finance the 1933 Glass-Steagall provisions came in the wake of the 1929 Crash. The 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act was a reaction to the Enron and WorldCom scandals. Dodd-Frank was enacted in 2010
Javier Milei One Year In!
Javier Milei has been in office for one year having taken over an economy on the brink of collapse. Milei managed to cut the monthly inflation rate from 26 per cent before he took office to 2.7 per cent in October. The Argentine peso has strengthened significantly against the black-market dollar over the past six months and Argentina’s sovereign bond prices have roughly tripled.
Patrick's Books:
Can Trump's Tariffs Work?
In today's video we examine Donald Trump's plan to rebalance global trade using tariffs, try to understand the issues with international trade that have been pushing the United States and other countries in this protectionist direction, and if tariffs can be expected to improve the situation or make things worse. We’ll discuss whether Trump could impose his tariffs unilaterally on his first day in
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