Fixed Interests
Fixed Interests is a podcast from Fitch Ratings that explores credit stories influencing global markets. Each episode features jargon-free discussions on macroeconomics, sovereigns, corporates, infrastructure, financial institutions, and emerging markets. The show provides context behind key credit trends, making complex topics accessible to a broad audience.
Episodes
EU Bank Reform: A Push to Unlock Cross-Border Growth
Christian Scarafia and Robert Mazzuoli unpack the European Commission's July push to boost EU banking competitiveness, exploring cross-border consolidation, capital fungibility, Basel III lending reforms, deposit protection changes, and key omissions.
Fitch's U.S. Consumer Health Pulse
Fitch's Olu Sonola joins Rachel Willis Gutierrez to unpack the US Consumer Health Pulse. Despite slowing spending, energy-driven inflation, and flat real income, consumers remain resilient buoyed by strong balance sheets and a solid labor market.
Japan Reflation and the Yen Reset
The US and Japan intervened to support the yen for the first time in nearly 30 years, but did it fix anything? Jessica Hinds joins Fitch's Fixed Interests to explain why the yen's weakness is now a story about fiscal credibility, real yields and BOJ
Resilience, Risk and Ratings Momentum in Global Corporate Credit
Fitch experts unpack Q2's shift as global upgrades outpaced downgrades for the first time since 2024. Explore what's driving credit resilience, regional trends, and the 2026 outlook for corporates across sectors.
Navigating AI's Impact on Service Businesses
What does AI disruption means for service businesses. Rob Galtman and Jonathan Reid join Deborah Murnin on where risk is most immediate, why exposure is so uneven, and which structural protections matter most across 200 corporates.
Inside Fitch's U.S. and EMEA Distressed and Default Monitor — July 2026
Let's unpack Fitch's July US and European distressed and default monitors. Brendan Hoelmer and Leonie Dackham join Terry Gallagher on why falling default rates mask rising forward-looking stress and a building default pipeline.
Implications of USMCA Annual Reviews for Mexico and Canada - Part 2
How will USMCA's annual review cycles impact Mexico and Canada. Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger join Shelly Shetty to explore key pressure points, sticking points on autos, and what a good deal looks like. Part two of two.
Implications of USMCA Annual Reviews for Mexico and Canada - Part 1
What the USMCA's move to annual review cycles means for North America. Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger join Shelly Shetty to unpack what changed on July 1st, Fitch's baseline scenario, and the risks ahead. Part one of two.
El Niño Part 3: Credit Implications for Hydropower and Palm Oil Sectors in Asia Pacific
Fitch analysts examine how a developing El Niño could impact corporate credit risk across Asia Pacific. We explore Vietnam's hydropower vulnerability, resilience in India and China, and why palm oil producers may face a mixed credit outlook.
Oil Shocks and Inflation Persistence – The Risk from Price Mark-Ups
Why did post-pandemic inflation last so long? Fitch's Chief Economist Brian Coulton reveals how corporate margins, not wages, fueled persistence, and assesses the risk of a repeat after the 2026 oil shock, with key implications for the Fed and ECB.
Business Development Companies and the Rise of Balance Sheet Financing Vehicles
Yields under pressure. Leverage on the rise. Fitch dives into the growing use of off-balance-sheet financing among Business Development Companies (BDCs) and what it signals for credit risk ahead.
El Niño Part 2 - Credit Impact on Latin American Energy, Power, & Utilities
How could El Niño affect Latin America's power sector? Fitch Ratings analysts Saverio Minervini, Marcela Araujo and Juan David Medellin discuss rising power prices, hydropower pressures and credit risks across Brazil, Colombia and Panama.
Innovation In Credit: New Structures, New Opportunities for Debt Investors
Aymeric Poizot and Monsur Hussain discuss how innovation is reshaping credit markets. Considering fund finance, securitisation and corporate back leverage, they explore these new structures and the implications for credit risk assessment.
El Niño Part 1: Impact on Emerging Market Sovereign Credit
Rachel Willis Gutierrez and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how El Niño acts as a risk amplifier for weaker sovereigns, intensifying pressures on growth, inflation, public finances, and trade. Listen now to this episode.
Deteriorating Outlook on GCC banks
Sabin Saveluc and Redmond Ramsdale explore the resilience of GCC banks amid the US-Iran conflict and ceasefire, discussing sector outlook, rating actions, asset quality, funding, liquidity, and sovereign support packages shaping the Middle East banking sector.
Analysis of Latest Trends from the Global Bank Forecast Monitor
Fitch's Cynthia Chan & Christian Scarafia reveal why bank forecasts refuse to crack, from higher-for-longer rates to leaner operations. And the surprise standouts? Italy and Switzerland are pulling ahead. Listen now.
The Fed Reset, Part 2: Markets Recalibrate
In the second part of their conversation, host Aymeric Poizot and Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton turn to the market fallout from the latest FOMC meeting and what the Fed's reset means over the longer term.They unpack the bear-flattening of the Treasury curve, the role of falling oil prices and stretched equity valuations, and how a smaller Fed balance sheet, rising supply, and a high
The Fed Reset, Part 1: A New Chair, A New Tone
Aymeric Poizot, Global Head of Investor Development at Fitch Ratings, is joined by Chief Economist Brian Coulton to examine what Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed Chair means for monetary policy and markets.They explore Warsh's more hawkish tone, his focus on Fed communications and balance sheet reduction, and his push to restore credibility on inflation. The conversation also breaks down the
Global Economic Outlook - Oil Shock Drives Growth and Inflation Revisions
Ed Parker and Charles Seville outline Fitch’s updated Global Economic Outlook, covering how the impact of the US‑Iran war and resulting oil shock are driving growth and inflation forecast revisions, along with the impact of ongoing AI investment.
Mixed Signals for Canada's Energy Economy
The ongoing US-Iran conflict has created a complex and mixed picture for Canada, a major oil exporter navigating both the benefits and costs of elevated energy prices. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Joshua Grundleger and Mark Sadeghian discuss Fitch's updated oil price forecasts and what the shock means for Canada's sovereign credit profile, energy sector, and provincial finances. Th
Hungary’s New Government: Policy Priorities and Challenges
Hungary’s April elections delivered a decisive victory for the opposition Tisza party, reshaping the country’s political landscape and outlook for policy reform. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Erich Arispe Morales, Head of Eastern Europe Sovereigns, speaks with Malgorzata Krzywicka, Hungary’s primary analyst, about the election outcome and its implications for the country’s sovereign
AI Capex, Monetization, and What It Means for Credit
AI‑driven investment in data centers, compute capacity, and supporting infrastructure continues apace, raising important questions about future monetization and credit sustainability. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary and Research, is joined by Alen Lin, Senior Director in Corporate Ratings, and Alex Bumazhny, Group Credit Officer, to examine rec
Oil, Risk & Ratings: The Middle East Crisis Briefing
Richard Hunter and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how the Middle East crisis is affecting sovereign ratings and the macro-outlook. Impacts are contained so far, and much geopolitical risk is already built into ratings and headroom.Related Resources:Fitch Insights: Credit Implications of the Iran WarWorld Growth to Continue at Steady Pace if Oil Price Shock Short-LivedEgyptian Banks Are Well Pos
Tech Shifts and Obsolescence Risks in Structured Finance
From unsupported EV software to AI‑driven changes in office use and logistics, tech is reshaping collateral performance. Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Ratings Credit Commentary and Research, and Suzanne Albers, Senior Director in Structured Finance, look at pressure points such as outdated EV systems, shifts in office demand linked to AI adoption, and the widening gap between legacy and mo
Evaluating the Credit Impacts of Youth‑Led Protests in Asia
Thomas Rookmaaker and Harry Hu evaluate recent youth‑led protests in several Asian countries, driven by concerns over governance, living costs and unemployment, and their implications for sovereign credit profiles and political transitions.Risk of Political Flare-Ups to Linger in 2026 for Some APAC SovereignsAsia ‘BBB’ Sovereigns Show Strong Growth; Fiscal Risks DivergeDurable Coalition K
2026 Global Credit Outlook: Resilience, Risks, and What to Watch
Justin Patrie and Sarah Repucci unpack Fitch’s Global Credit Outlook, highlighting resilient credit conditions, pressures in China and Canada, and key risks, including strain on lower‑income U.S. consumers, tariff volatility and geopolitical shocks.Global Credit Resilience to Face Major Tests in 2026Global Private Credit’s Burgeoning Scale, Complexity to Continue in 2026Geopolitical Tensi
Venezuela After Maduro: US Policy, Oil, and Regional Risks
Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger discuss the US ouster of Nicolas Maduro, the revived Monroe Doctrine, and key risks for Latin America, including oil investment, debt restructuring, regional market reactions, and impacts on migration and tourism.
Global Economic Outlook - AI-Related Capital Spending Cushions Slowdown
Brian Coulton and Ed Parker discuss Fitch’s Global Economic Outlook, reviewing where the world economy stands at the close of 2025 and key trends for 2026, from AI-driven investment and resilient U.S. equities to China’s sharp investment slowdown.
Are Bubble Risks Emerging in Leveraged Finance?
Lyuba Petrova, Lyle Margolis and Justin Patrie examine bubble risks as equities surge, credit spreads tighten, private credit faces hidden vulnerabilities and AI investment accelerates, though valuations suggest buyers aren’t overpaying.
Argentina Mid-Terms - Credit Outlook and Reform Risks
Shelly Shetty and Todd Martinez analyze Argentina’s mid-term elections, what Milei’s stronger legislative backing means for reforms, and the lingering risks around reserves and external liquidity.
Fiscal Challenges for Western European Sovereigns
James Longsdon, Head of Global Sovereigns and Supranationals, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereign Ratings, discuss Western Europe’s fiscal divergence, recent upgrades and downgrades, and Fitch’s deficit outlook.
Challenges Ahead for US Data Center Boom
Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary & Research, discuss emerging challenges for the AI-fueled US data center boom, covering investment, rising costs, impact on utilities and more.
GCC Diversification: Progress and Challenges
Paul Gamble, Head of Middle East and Africa (MEA) Sovereigns, and Cedric Berry, Director, MEA Sovereigns, discuss GCC efforts to diversify their economies beyond oil, and the varied pace of progress across the region.
Emerging Markets in 2025 - Resilience Amid Global Headwinds
Justin Patrie and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how emerging market credits are faring this year amid slower global growth, geopolitical risks, and shifting U.S. policy - highlighting ratings resilience and modest positive momentum.
Global Credit Risk Outlook
Justin Patrie and David Prowse discuss key themes from Fitch’s Global Credit Risk Outlook, including slower growth, tariff uncertainty, and weaker credit conditions—as well as the overall ratings resilience amid these challenges.
Fiscal Risks in Japan
Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Krisjanis Krustins, lead analyst for Japan, discuss Japan’s fiscal outlook, covering the impact of rising bond yields, fiscal populism and long-term spending pressures.
Global Economic Outlook – Better But Not Good
Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, discuss Fitch’s mid-year Global Economic Outlook, focusing on global growth forecast updates since April and how tariffs are driving key changes to projections.
Global Corporates at Mid-Year - Sector Outlooks Deteriorates on Tariffs Pressure
The credit outlook for global corporates has worsened in 2025, with 14 sectors and sub-sectors deteriorating at mid-year vs. 5 at end-2024. Justin Patrie and Carla Taylor, Head of Research for the Americas, discuss the drivers and implications.
CEE Electoral Cycle: Sovereign Rating Implications
Paul Gamble, Senior Director of Sovereign Ratings, and Erich Arispe, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings, discuss the credit implications and common themes of the 2025/2026 electoral cycle in Central and Eastern Europe.
Tariff Uncertainty Continues To Shape Credit Risk Outlook
Fitch's 2Q25 Risk Headquarters report highlights a worsened risk outlook amid US tariff volatility. David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss key points from the report, centered around how Trump-era policies continue to elevate investor concerns.
Listen and Subscribe to Fitch Ratings Fixed Interests Podcast
From global macroeconomic trends to sovereign credit developments to regulatory and political changes, Fitch’s Fixed Interests podcast delivers the analyst insights and updates you need to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving market. Available wherever you get your podcasts.
Mexico's Sovereign Rating Amid Global Trade Tensions
Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns and Todd Martinez, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss Mexico’s recent rating affirmation, and how the sovereign is navigating global trade tensions and domestic fiscal challenges.
European Sovereigns: Navigating US Policy Shifts
Explore the impact of US tariffs on European sovereigns with Jan Friederich, Head of EMEA Sovereigns, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereigns, as they discuss strategic responses and fiscal implications for Europe.
China's Fiscal Future: Insights on the Recent Rating Downgrade
Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Jeremy Zook, lead analyst for China, discuss China’s recent downgrade, covering key drivers including the sovereign's weakening public finances and rapidly rising public debt ratios.
US Housing Economy Update - Downside Risks Increasing
Olu Sonola, Chief US Economist, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary and Research, delve into Fitch's latest US Cross-Sector Housing Monitor, discussing the US housing outlook and risks from tariffs, labor costs and lower sentiment.
Risk Headquarters 1Q25 - Key Risks to Global Credit
David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss the key points in Fitch's 1Q25 Risk Headquarters report, covering how the credit risk environment has evolved since the start of the year in response to inflation, new Trump administration policies, and more.
India's Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Join Thomas Rookmaaker and Jeremy Zook from the APAC Sovereigns team as they explore India's 2025 budget, its path for debt reduction, economic outlook, and implications for the sovereign rating amid global uncertainties.
Private Credit - 2024 Trends, 2025 Expectations
Join Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Meghan Neenan, Head of North America NBFI, as they review 2024's private credit trends, including the growth of asset-based finance, and discuss outlooks on the sector for 2025.
Trump Agenda and Outlook for US Fiscal Policy and Debt Trajectory
Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, look into the impact new Trump administration policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, may have on US public finances and its sovereign rating.
Global Credit Outlook 2025
David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss the key points in Fitch's 2025 Global Credit Outlook report, including positive drivers for the market such as falling interest rates, and negative drivers including escalating geopolitical risks.
Global Economic Outlook – Global Growth Stable as Forecasts for Major Economies Shift
Tariff uncertainty in the US, deflation pressures in China, and political instability in France and Germany are driving forecast changes for 2025. Join Brian Coulton and Ed Parker as they cover these and other developments detailed in Fitch's new Global Economic Outlook report.
US Election Impact - Tariffs, Credit Risks, and Market Reactions
Richard Francis, David Prowse, and Justin Patrie discuss the implications of the recent US election, including potential impacts on the US budget, sovereign credit profile, and the macroeconomic effects of new tariffs on global markets.
Public Finances and CEE Sovereign Ratings
Erich Arispe, Head of Emerging Europe (EE) Sovereigns, and Malgorzata Krzywicka, Associate Director EE Sovereigns, discuss Central and Eastern Europe’s current state of public finances and the region’s fiscal consolidation prospects and challenges.
US Banks - 2024 Trends, 2025 Expectations
Christopher Wolfe, Managing Director for North America Banks, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, look back at US banks’ performance and rating trends in 2024 and discuss expectations for 2025, including potential post-election policy changes.
Common Framework Restructurings - Progress and Challenges
Explore the latest developments in Common Framework debt restructurings for Ethiopia, Zambia, and Ghana and the impacts of new IMF policies with Paul Gamble, Head of MEA Sovereign ratings, and Thomas Garreau, Associate Director, MEA Sovereigns.
Outlook on Emerging Market Economies
Duncan Innes-Ker, Senior Director, Fitch Wire, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, explore challenges and opportunities for emerging market economies, including recent rate cuts, weaker demand in China, and post-election policy changes in the US.
Economic Policy Expectations for India
Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Jeremy Zook, Lead Analyst for India, discuss India’s sovereign rating, and what to expect from the country’s economic policy following the election of Narendra Modi to his third term as prime minister.
US Election and Credit Implications
Richard Francis, Richard Hunter and Justin Patrie look into the potential effects the upcoming US election could have on credit, touching on the US’ sovereign rating, the different fiscal policy plans offered by the candidates, and more.
Fiscal Policies in the European Union
Head of EMEA Sovereigns Jan Friederich and Head of Western European Sovereigns Federico Barriga Salazar discuss fiscal policies in the EU, including the impact of the new fiscal rules and implications for the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument.
Global Credit Risk through 1H24
David Prowse, Senior Director, Fitch Wire, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, look into our 3Q24 Risk Headquarters report, covering the ongoing impact of high interest rates, escalating geopolitical risks, real estate market challenges and more.
Global Economic Outlook – Monetary Policy Enters an Easing Phase
Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, parse Fitch’s latest Global Economic Outlook report, covering focus points including the gradually slowing US economy, global monetary policy developments and more.
Mexico’s New Administration - Key Challenges and Opportunities
Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Lead Mexico Analyst, look at Mexico’s recent elections, including challenges and opportunities for the new administration, and rating drivers moving forward.
Estimating the Impact of Potential US Tariff Hikes
With elections in the U.S. approaching, Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Alex Muscatelli, Director, Economics, look into the potential impact a renewed trade war sparked by US-led tariff hikes could have on the global economy
Contagion Risks from Rising Commercial Real Estate Delinquencies
Euan Gatfield, Head of EMEA CMBS, joins Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, to explore the current CRE environment, delving into rate cycle impacts and other factors such as e-commerce, post-Covid office space utilization and the energy transition
Post-Election Economic Outlook for Turkiye
Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging European Sovereigns, and Erich Arispe, Lead Analyst on Turkiye, discuss the positive rating actions around Turkiye following the country’s 2023 economic policy changes, and the impact of recent local elections.
Risk Headquarters 2Q24
Richard Hunter, Chief Credit Officer, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, dive into the latest Risk Headquarters report, outlining the main risks to global credit this quarter including real estate, geopolitics, China macroeconomics, and more.
Credit Views on Pakistan Post-Election
Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Krisjanis Krustins, Primary Analyst on Pakistan discuss the results of Pakistan’s recent elections, their implications for IMF talks, and the country’s reform potential and funding prospects.
The Growing World of Private Credit
Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, and Meghan Neenan, Head of North America NBFI, dive into the rapidly expanding private credit sector, covering the origins of the space, its growing profile following the 2008 financial crisis and more.
Economic Reforms In Argentina Under Milei - The First 100 Days
Join Shelly Shetty, Head of Sovereign Ratings for Asia & the Americas, and Todd Martinez, Primary Argentina Analyst & Americas Co-Head, as they discuss the potential economic impacts and rating implications for Argentina under President Milei.
Outlook for Chinese Credit - What to Expect in 2024
Justin Patrie, Senior Director and Head of Fitch Wire, is joined by fellow Credit Policy Senior Director Lan Wang to discuss the outlook for China’s economy, covering policy support, fiscal rebalancing and the property sector, among other topics.
Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Risks in the Middle East and North Africa
Toby Iles, Head of MEA Sovereigns, joins Head of EMEA Sovereigns Jan Friederich to break down the economic and rating implications of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa.
A Challenging Environment for U.S. Commercial Real Estate
Justin Patrie, Senior Director and Head of Fitch Wire, and Melissa Che, Senior Director, North America CMBS, explore the challenges facing U.S. commercial real estate in 2024, including refinancing issues, weakened fundamentals and more.
2024 Global Credit Outlook - Key Themes and What to Expect
Richard Hunter, Chief Credit Officer, and Justin Patrie, Senior Director, discuss the key themes of Fitch’s recent 2024 Global Outlook report, including sustained elevated interest rates, asset quality deterioration, a US growth slowdown, and more.
Opportunities for Supply Chain Diversification In Emerging Markets
Fitch sovereign analysts Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Todd Martinez, Senior Director, and Jeremy Zook, Director, discuss the impact of supply chain diversification trends such as nearshoring/friendshoring on emerging markets.
Global Economic Outlook - High Rates and Slowing Growth
Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, discuss Fitch's Global Economic Outlook for 2024, including stagnation in the Eurozone, property market concerns in China, and slowing growth in the US
Fiscal Developments in Western Europe
Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereigns, and Greg Kiss, Sovereigns Director, discuss how underlying fiscal trends in Western Europe have become more challenging in 2023, and divergent debt dynamics among the regions' economies.
Assessing Common Framework Debt Restructuring
Head of EMEA Sovereigns Jan Friederich is joined by MEA Associate Director Thomas Garreau to discuss the functioning of sovereign restructurings under the G20 Common Framework and cases of its application.
Outlook on APAC Frontier Markets
APAC Frontier Markets continue to face external financing challenges - join Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Sovereign Directors Sagarika Chandra and Krisjanis Krustins, for a discussion of what to expect in these markets in 2024.
US Sovereign Rating and Outlook Going Forward
Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the recently averted US government shutdown, the August 1st ratings downgrade, and the outlook for US public finances & the rating going forward.
China's slowdown and sovereign risks
As Fitch cuts its forecasts for China’s economic growth, Thomas Rookmaaker, Jeremy Zook and Brian Coulton discuss the implications of the deteriorating macro-outlook for China’s sovereign creditworthiness.
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