Sentinel Minutes
Sentinel Minutes is a weekly podcast that analyzes global news to identify the most important risks and early warning signs of catastrophic events. The show is produced by Sentinel, a foresight and emergency response team focused on anticipating and reacting to large-scale disasters, especially those of a speculative nature. Each episode distills millions of news articles into the most critical threats and precursors, making it valuable for listeners interested in risk assessment, forecasting, and global security.
Episodes
″🟡 Chinese company delays release of AI model weights, hackers use autonomous agents to compromise Taiwanese agencies, Trump cuts US participation in military exercises with South Korea || Global Risk” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Technology and AI: A Chinese open-source AI company is delaying the release of model weights for the first time, citing cyber risks. Anthropic won’t release what it calls “Model 2”. Bernie Sanders says the US Senate could force US companies to pause AI development. Will the US Senate succeed in pausing AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China? Our forec
″🟡 OpenAI incident involved multi-agent cooperation, US-Iran deal still out of reach, Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza plan || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #32/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI provided more details about the attack on Hugging Face, revealing that AI agents cooperated and covertly built a message board. Their new Astra model will potentially be the first to be classed as “critical” for cybersecurity capabilities, meaning it has not yet been released to the public. Will OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public
″🟡 Iran War widens, OpenAI and Anthropic find evidence of more cyber breaches, frontier AI staff sign open letter || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: The Iran War widened, with a port in Egypt being hit, Tehran threatening Cyprus and Bulgaria, and Ukraine striking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Hamas said it would give up its heavy weapons if Israel withdraws from Gaza, but Israel said it would not withdraw until Hamas gives up the weapons. Will Iran or its proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) strike the
″🟡 OpenAI model breaches containment, Houthis and Saudis clash, US and Iran pause attacks for over two days || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #30/2026″ by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary Technology and AI: A combination of OpenAI models was revealed to be behind the recent cybersecurity breach at Hugging Face (🟡). A bipartisan bill named the AI Kill Switch Act was introduced to the US House of Representatives. Will the AI Kill Switch Act pass the US House of Representatives before January 3, 2027? Our forecasters think there's an 18% (12% to 27%) chance. By D
″🟩 Iran War persists with more US troops killed, Chinese startup releases Kimi K3, Ebola continues to spread || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #29/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continued its nightly strikes on Iranian territory, while Iran retaliated against Gulf states and against US bases in Jordan and Iraq, killing at least three US servicemembers. Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis ended a four-year truce, and the Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, which could disrupt shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Str
″🟩 US-Iran ceasefire breaks, OpenAI releases GPT-5.6, China and the US consider AI trade restrictions || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #28/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Executive summary Geopolitics: The US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the US did not end up sending a delegation for a fresh round of talks in Oman. Will Iran take fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 64% (60% to 68%) probability that this will occur. Between now and the end of the year, will Brent crude reach a price of $100 per
″🟩 Anthropic export controls lifted, Russia closed border crossings with some neighbors, OpenAI mulls giving US a 5% stake || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #27/2026″ by Nuño Sempere
No dramatic global cyberattacks yet :( Executive summary Geopolitics: Russia closed its railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, prompting speculation about a possible mobilization of troops. Before January 2, 2027, will Russia launch a mass mobilization that involves at least one of the following: involuntary mobilization of at least 300k reservists, forced deployment of act
″🟩 US and Iran resumed fighting before renewing ceasefire, Crimea declared state of emergency, access to new OpenAI model restricted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
& Federal Reserve Independence & a deadly fungus. Executive summary Geopolitics: Shipping traffic markedly rose in the Strait of Hormuz before falling back because of renewed fighting between the US and Iran, who later agreed to a renewed ceasefire. Russian-occupied Crimea declared an emergency following supply shortages and power cuts resulting from Ukrainian attacks. Will shipping traffic in
″🟩 Strait of Hormuz traffic rises, US fears China has access to restricted chip manufacturing machine, Ebola deaths rapidly increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Ebola is really about to take off. Executive summary Geopolitics: A peace deal between the US and Iran was officially signed by both parties, and traffic subsequently rose in the Strait of Hormuz but remained well below pre-war levels. Ukraine carried out its largest attack on Moscow to date, striking an oil refinery, and began EU accession talks. Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
″🟩 Trump administration imposes export controls on new Anthropic model, US-Iran peace deal announced, Ebola spreads further || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia's economy. Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine be agreed for a period longer than 3 days? Our forecasters give this a 26% (20% to 40%) probability. Before August 2026, will
″🟩 Iran and Israel exchange fire for first time since April, Trump signs AI executive order, Ebola outbreak grows || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #23/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the fragile ceasefire began in April. A Ukrainian maritime drone crashed into a Black Sea port in Romania. Before September 2026, will a NATO country invoke Article 4 consultations in response to suspected or proven Russian aggression? Our forecasters think there's a 21% (12% to 40%) chance. Will a peace agr
″🟩 Russian drone hits Romanian apartment block, Ebola deaths rise at slower pace, Anthropic surpasses OpenAI valuation || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people. Israel continues to strike Lebanon and Gaza. Will at least 10,000 deaths in Gaza and Lebanon be attributed to Israeli military action between June 1 and September 1, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 19% (7% to 35%) chance. Biorisk: Reported Ebola deaths continued to rise, though at a s
″🟩 Renewed US-Iran negotiations, OpenAI and DeepMind models solve Erdos problems, Ebola deaths increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #21/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near. Rubio called Cuba a leading state sponsor of terror and questioned whether diplomacy with the regime would work. Will the US carry out a strike on Cuba's territory by the end of July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 34% (20% to 50%) chance. Biorisk: The number of suspected deaths in the
″🟩 US and China discuss AI guardrails, Ebola declared a Public Health Emergency, Trump and Iran trade barbs || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Technology and AI: The US and China discussed AI guardrails to mitigate risks from frontier AI models. Will the US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027 in which both governments state or clearly imply reciprocal expectations, commitments, rules, or norms governing AI development, deployment, security, or military use? Our forecasters believe there
″🟡 US-Iran stalemate continues, Putin says Ukraine war may come to an end, White House considers AI executive order || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #19/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: Donald Trump called Iran's response to the US’ latest peace proposal “totally unacceptable”. Vladimir Putin hinted that the Russia-Ukraine war may be nearing an end. Will Russia and Ukraine end the war with a signed agreement by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 35% (25% to 50%) chance. Technology and AI: The White House is reportedly considering in
″🟡 Iran says it will target US naval vessels, GPT-5.5 similar to Mythos on cyber tasks || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2026″ by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran unveiled a fresh peace proposal, but Trump was not satisfied with it and says that Iran has not paid a big enough price for the war to end yet. The US said it would guide stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran warned it could attack US naval vessels in response. Will Congress put any constraints on the war in Iran by June 1, 2026, using the W
″🟡 US-Iran peace talks called off, unauthorized access to Claude Mythos, shots fired at Trump dinner, El Niño coming || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #17/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: Another round of peace talks between the US and Iran failed to materialise, with Iran only committing to indirect talks in Islamabad and US negotiators cancelling their trip to Pakistan. Will direct or indirect US-Iran negotiations, with representatives from both nations present in the same country, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's an 80% (75
″🟡 US seizes Iranian cargo ship, Iran-US peace talks uncertain, cyberattack estimates || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2026″ by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary Geopolitics: The US seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade ends. Will there still be ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran on November 3, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 20% (5% to 40%) chance. Will the Democrats take the Senate in the US midterms? Our forecas
″🟡 US to blockade Iranian ports, Iran peace talks end without agreement, Anthropic Mythos released to tech and cyber firms || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran and the US failed to reach an agreement, and the US is now effectively blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports. A fragile ceasefire between the two countries officially remains in place. What is the chance that the US will still be conducting a naval blockade of Iran on June 1 2026? Forecasters think there's a 28% (15% to 55%) chance. What is the chance
″🟡 Trump threatens Iranian power and desalination plants, aviators from downed F-15E rescued, Claude Code leak, updated ASI timelines || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #14/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump threatened to bomb power and desalination plants in Iran if they do not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after indicating that he’d be willing to walk away from the war without its reopening earlier in the week. Pakistan submitted a fresh ceasefire proposal to both parties. Will the US and Israel end hostilities against Iran by April 21, 2026? Our forec
″🟡 Iranian steel and nuclear plants bombed, Houthi attacks begin, AI solves open problem in mathematics || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #13/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: Israel attacked a number of steel and nuclear sites in Iran. The Iran-backed Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the beginning of the Iran War. US Marines and Special Operations Forces have arrived in the Middle East, amid increasing discussion of the potential deployment of US combat forces in Iran. Will the Houthis attack or seize at least one s
″🟡 Oil and gas facilities attacked in the Middle East, another US Marine unit deploying to the Middle East, desalination plants threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #12/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: More oil and gas facilities in the Middle East were targeted in Israeli and Iranian attacks. Another US Marine unit is being deployed to the Middle East. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power infrastructure, and Iran threatened to retaliate against critical sites including desalination plants; Trump has backed down for now and says US-Iran talks are ongoing. Wi
″🟡 Trump threatens NATO, US bombs Kharg Island in Iran, US Marine unit deploying to Middle East || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: The US bombed Kharg Island, home to Iran's main oil terminal, but spared its oil facilities. A US Marine Expeditionary Unit is being sent from Japan to the Middle East. Trump said that NATO faces a “very bad future” if its members don’t send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Will the US attempt to seize or carry out a major strike on the oil infrastructur
″🟡 Iran War continues, Strait of Hormuz remains closed, sharp drop in Chinese aircraft flying near Taiwan, Alibaba AI agent mystery || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #10/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: The Iran War continues, with the US and Israel continuing to strike targets in Iran and Iran continuing to launch drone and missile attacks. Iran is launching decreasing numbers of missiles over time. Will the US place at least 1,000 US troops in Iran before May? Our forecasting team gives this a 21% (7% to 38%) chance. Will there be more than 100 combined US and
″🟡 US and Israel strike Iran, Iran retaliates against US allies, Anthropic designated a supply chain risk || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #9/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: The US and Israel attacked Iran and killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran retaliated by striking US bases and allied countries in the region. Also, an arms sale to Taiwan has been paused by the US to ensure that Trump's April visit to Beijing goes smoothly. Will Iran's regime fall by the end of 2026? Forecasters assign a 45% (32% to 70%) probability thereof. Will there
″🟩 US buildup in Middle East continues, Russian vessel en route to Cuba, AI time horizons lengthen | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #8/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continued to move military assets to the Middle East and Europe. A Russian tanker believed to be carrying oil is on its way to Cuba, in potential violation of a US embargo. There is unrest in Mexico after a cartel leader was killed. Will the US strike Iran by March 8, the end of March, or the end of June? Forecasters provide estimates of 38% (25% to 51%), 6
″🟩 US sends second aircraft carrier to Middle East, European nuclear deterrent discussed, pandemic preparedness deprioritized at NIAID | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #7/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump again expressed support for regime change in Iran and sent a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East, but also said that nuclear talks will continue. Some European leaders are floating the idea of a common European nuclear deterrent, but Spain's PM is opposed to “nuclear rearmament”. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters give a 69%
″🟩 Anthropic and OpenAI release new models, US-Iran talks continue, illegal biolab in the US, nuclear arms treaty expires | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #6/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: American and Iranian negotiators met for nuclear talks in Oman. No agreement was reached, but both sides said the talks will continue. A nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia expired. Will Iran's current regime and the US reach any agreement around Iran's nuclear program before July 1, 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 17% (5.0% to 32%) probabili
″🟩 AI social network Moltbook grows, US-Iran tensions simmer, Nipah pandemic unlikely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #5/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continues to threaten Iran with military action if it doesn’t make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though Trump says that talks are ongoing. Cuba may run out of crude oil in 2-3 weeks. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 52% (40% to 70%). Will Ayatollah Khamenei cease to be the Supreme Lea
″🟩 Trump walks back Greenland threats, US sends warships to the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #4/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump backtracked on plans for the US to own Greenland and to impose tariffs on imports from some European countries that opposed an American takeover of Greenland, and he also ruled out using military force to take the territory. The US continued to move military assets into the Middle East, with Trump saying that military action against Iran is possible. The first
″🟨 “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace”, “that’d be pretty morally bankrupt. and he’s really not an idiot” || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #3/2026” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk's position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit's discovery phase. Forecasters think there's a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI. Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on i
″🟩 Trump administration mulls strikes on Iran and says the US will own Greenland, DOJ launches investigation into Fed Chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #2/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump is seriously considering intervening militarily in Iran to assist anti-government protesters. He says that the US will “own” Greenland and that this can either be done “the easy way” or the “hard way”. And he says that the US will conduct strikes against drug cartels on Mexican soil. Forecasters think there's a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Ira
″🟩 US attacks Venezuela and captures Maduro, threatens Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Denmark || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #1/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewater
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The US struck targets in Venezuela and captured its former President Nicolás Maduro. Trump and others in his orbit also threatened to take over or called for military action in Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Greenland. Anti-government protests continue in Iran. Tech and AI: xAI has come under fire, including from French ministers, after Grok AI reportedly
″🟩 Forecasts for drone attacks and AI time horizons; China holds military drills around Taiwan and imposes sanctions on US arms manufacturers || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #52/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: The US likely covertly struck a facility in Venezuela. China imposed sanctions on American arms manufacturers following the approval of a new US arms package for Taiwan, and China launched live-fire military exercises aiming to encircle Taiwan. Iran is refusing to allow the IAEA to inspect its damaged nuclear sites. 90% (85% to 93%) probability that the
″🟩 AI unemployment and IPOs in 2026, EU funds Ukraine from its own pockets, US seizes Chinese-owned tanker || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #51/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: The EU opted not to use Russian assets either directly or as collateral to fund Ukraine's defence. The US seized an oil tanker in international waters off the coast of Venezuela and pursued another; one of them was Chinese-owned. The US Congress renewed its military commitments to Ukraine, Taiwan and other allies in Europe and Asia. Tech and AI: METR f
″🟩EU freezes Russian assets, US and Iran seize oil tankers, Trump restricts AI regulation || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #50/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The EU indefinitely froze €210 billion of Russian assets. The US and Iran seized oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and in the Gulf of Oman, respectively. Ukraine wants to join the EU before 2027. Forecasters estimate a 38% (25% to 55%) chance that the US will seize another oil tanker related to Venezuela by the end of January 2026, and a 70% (60%
″🟩US signals diminished role in NATO, Russia-Ukraine talks falter, Hassett likely to become next Fed chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #49/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks did not produce an immediate resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants Europe to take over most of NATO's conventional military responsibilities by 2027. Tech and AI: OpenAI launched its alignment blog, and confirmed that they are researching how to safely develop and deploy models capable
″🟩 Airspace closed over Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine talks continue, DeepSeek reaches gold IMO level || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #48/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Donald Trump announced that the airspace above Venezuela has been closed, but the US has not struck Venezuelan territory. Iran's President repeated his warning that the country's capital may need to be relocated because of water shortages. And talks about bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end continue. Tech and AI: Anthropic released its late
″🟩 Ukraine peace plan, US continues activity around Venezuela, state AI regulation moratorium round 2 || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #47/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary We’re a group of top forecasters who parse millions of news pieces a week to identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you. Here are our top items and forecasts for this week Geopolitics: The US proposes a peace plan favorable to Russia, and Ukraine and the EU push back. US military activities around Venezuela continue. Forecaster
″🟩 Rising China-Japan tensions, Iran seizes oil tanker, AI-directed cyberattacks disrupted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #46/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The Japanese PM said that any Chinese invasion of Taiwan could potentially prompt a Japanese intervention. Pakistan accused India and then Afghan nationals of being behind a terror attack. Iran seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis signalled an end to their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Tech and AI: Anthropic said that it dis
″🟩 Iran drought warning, rebels agree to Sudan ceasefire, Trump tariffs threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #45/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Iran's President warned that the capital Tehran may need to be evacuated within the next few months if severe water shortages don’t ease. The main rebel group in Sudan agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire, while a UN-backed monitor confirmed that famine is present in the Sudanese town of El Fasher. Tech and AI: Google's Gemini 3 is likely to be widely de
″🟩 Trump threatens to send troops to Nigeria and denies Venezuela attack plans, China-US trade détente || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #44/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Trump threatened to send troops to Nigeria to combat Islamic rebels. He also ordered the immediate resumption of US nuclear weapons testing, and elsewhere denied that the US is on the verge of att
″🟩 Aircraft carrier ordered to the Venezuelan coast, chance of Trump 3rd term, bird flu spreading with fall migration || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #43/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, belikewater
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The US ordered the world's largest warship to the Caribbean, close to Venezuela. The proposed meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin was cancelled following disagreements. The US placed sanctions on two Russian oil companies. Tech and AI: A letter advocating a prohibition on the development of superintelligence was signed by figures ranging from
″🟢 CIA authorized to operate in Venezuela, Trump walks back China tariff threat, Budapest to host US-Russia meeting on Ukraine || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #42/2025.” by Nuño Sempere
90% (86% to 92%) chance that former US National Security Advisor John Bolton will be convicted. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Trump authorized the CIA to carry out covert and lethal operations in Venezuela. Putin and Trump agreed to meet in Budapest for a fresh discussion on how to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky tried but failed to secure Tomahawk missiles from the US. Economy:
″🟢 Gaza ceasefire agreed, Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China, OpenAI subpoena controversy || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #41/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza. The Trump administration rejected an offer from Maduro that would’ve allowed the US increased access to Venezuela's oil and gold resources and reduced Venezuela's ties to China and Russia. Economy: Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on imports from China. The S&P 500 fell b
“California AI bill passed, Trump tries to send National Guard to Portland, US economy warning signs | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #40/2025” by Nuño Sempere
Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries. Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries. US politics: The Trump administration was blocked three times from sending National Guard troops to Portland. Artificial Intelligence:
“EU may shoot down Russian jets next time, US gov shutdown, no global AI red lines | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #39/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising. US Politics: US government may fac
″🟡 US comedian’s show suspended after government pressure, Russian jets flew over Estonia, open-source AIs designed new genome variants || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #38/2025″ by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Russian jets entered Estonia's airspace. An agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could bring Saudi Arabia under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella. US Politics: A US comedian's show was suspended after the FCC chair exerted pressure on his network and on companies that own local TV stations. The Trump administration plans to announce actions targeting
″🟢 Russian drones shot down over Poland, Israel strikes Qatar, Trump ally assassinated | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #37/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
OpenAI and Oracle signed a $300B deal, which would lead to Oracle displacing Microsoft to become OpenAI's largest compute provider; the deal lifted Oracle's stock price. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Multiple Russian drones entered Poland's airspace, some of which were shot down. Forecasters examined the probability of a Russian incursion by air, land or sea that (accidentally or d
“Possible postwar Ukraine security guarantees ready, chikungunya outbreak grows in China, weak jobs numbers suggest Fed rate cut likely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #36/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Executive Summary Economy: Weak August US jobs numbers make a September Fed rate cut look more likely. Bond markets are showing signs of stress, and gold prices continue to rise, reflecting growing risks. Geopolitics: French President Macron said 26 nations are ready to provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine. China hosted foreign leaders for talks on economic cooperation and held a lar
“Houthi PM and cabinet killed, RFK Jr. fires CDC director, Trump fires Federal Reserve Governor, $200M pro-AI lobbying group launched || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #35/2025.” by Nuño Sempere
43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Israeli strike on Yemen kills Houthi prime minister and several cabinet members. Biorisk: New World screwworm spreading northward through the Americas. RFK Jr. fired the CDC director, replacing her with a Thiel protégé. Artificial Intelligence: Anthropi
“UN famine declaration, US moving 2.2K marines off the coast of Venezuela, DeepSeek V3.1 released || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, anpaure
22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025. Executive summary Top items: Famine: The UN declared a famine in Gaza. Geopolitics: Putin clarifies Russia's stringent terms for a ceasefire. The US is moving Navy ships with 2.2K Marines to waters off the coast of Venezuela. Tech and AI: DeepSeek released its V3.1 model, a more capable open-source mode
“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK. Tech and AI: Meta's polici
“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK. Tech and AI: Meta's polici
“Israel preparing to take over Gaza City, ceasefire in Ukraine unlikely to happen soon, Trump deploying National Guard in DC, GPT-5 released | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #32/2025” by Nuño Sempere
Status: green Executive summary Key items this week are: Economy and trade: Trump's new tariff rates for most of the world took effect on August 7. Trump partially followed through on threats of secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners if there wasn’t a stop to the Ukraine war by last Friday, by placing an additional 25% tariff on India, which has been buying Russian oil, starting near t
“Gaza hunger, US GDP growth driven by AI capex, US fires labor statistics commissioner | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2025” by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary Key items this week are: Economy and trade: Trump announced new tariffs. US GDP growth is driven by AI capex spending while labor slumps. In response to an unfavorable labor report, Trump fired the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Geopolitics: UK, France and Canada announced their intention to recognize a Palestinian state. Hunger is widespread in Gaza and m
″🟢 Thailand v. Cambodia clashes erupted and resolved, White House AI Action Plan released, Anthropic faces billion-dollar lawsuit | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #30/2025″ by Nuño Sempere
Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached... Executive summary Key items this week are: Geopolitical risks: Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached. Israel is being accused of causing mass starvation in Gaza by the WHO and others. Z
″🟢 Taiwan defense rehearsals, Israel-Syria ceasefire, IMO Gold at OpenAI | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #29/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, scott eastmanphoto.com
Executive summary Taiwan conducted its largest-ever defense drills to prepare for a possible Chinese invasion, while the US has been pushing Japan and Australia to clarify whether they would get involved in a US-China war over Taiwan. Forecasters estimated the probability of a Chinese invasion by 2027 conditional on Japan saying it would not intervene to be 11.5%, and 22% conditional on Trump or
“Houthis sink ships, US tariffs for US allies and secondary tariff threats for Russia, Grok and Kimi model releases | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #28/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, scott eastmanphoto.com
The Houthis sank two ships last week, new powerful open source model released. Executive summary The Houthis sank two ships last week, and forecasters estimated the following: Will the Houthis sink at least two ships by August 15? 51% (40% to 60%) Will the US attack the Houthis in the next 30 days? 26.5% (20% to 36%) By the end of August, will the US lower the copper tariff from the promised
″🟢 Big Beautiful Bill passed in the US, Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine, Musk announced new America Party | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #27/2025.” by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary A major budget reconciliation bill (the “Big Beautiful Bill”) passed in the US and was signed into law—it's massive and might have impacts for your industry. In response, Musk announced the creation of a new “America Party”. Geopolitical conflicts did not flare up. This week, forecasters produced estimates on four questions: Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas t
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2025:” by Nuño Sempere
Iran, NATO increased spending, video addictions. Executive summary After US airstrikes damaged Iranian nuclear facilities, a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has so far largely held. Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz. Khamenei and the Islamic Republic remain in power; Khamenei is still in hiding and may not be well. Iranian officials have expressed their intent to resume the country's nuc
″🟢 US bombs Iran, India again rejects water treaty | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, scott eastmanphoto.com, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary The US attacked three nuclear sites in Iran, likely setting back their nuclear program by by years, but the locations and future of Iran's nuclear stockpile remain unknown. A weakened Iran will likely respond meekly, although forecasters now deem it more likely than not that Iran will attack a US base in the region. A nuclear detonation in the Middle East is extremely unlikely.
″🟡 Israel attacks Iran, US protests continue, China deploys 2 aircraft carriers in Pacific | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2025″ by Nuño Sempere
and, the Gentle Singularity. Executive summary Israel attacked Iran's nuclear weapons program and military leadership - Israel and Iran are now at war Anti-ICE and No Kings protests took place in over 2,100 locations in the US and remained largely peaceful Trump steps up deportation plans, backs down from targeting agricultural, hotel and restaurant workers China simultaneously deployed two
“Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater
until midnight NYC time. This article was collaboratively written by: Nuño Sempere, Brian Yu, Kati Conen, Alex Lyzhov, Jaeho Lee and 30+ other contributors. Those of us who are in the US are going to sleep, but the document continues being available and freely editable here, and by the time US readers wake up many new developments may have arisen. Last week, the IAEA found Iran in non-compliance
“Trump sent the National Guard to Los Angeles, Russia intensified conventional attacks on Ukraine, US-Iran nuclear talks continue | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #23/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur
Executive summary Trump federalized National Guard troops and ordered them to be deployed to Los Angeles amid anti-deportation protests, against the California governor's wishes. Federal officials are calling the protests an insurrection, setting the stage for the possibility that the Insurrection Act may be invoked, which would allow the military to be used for law enforcement within the US. For
“Ukraine drones destroy 41 Russian planes, proposed taxes on foreign investment, uranium enrichment continues in Iran | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025” by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary On Sunday, Ukraine carried out a drone attack on five Russian military airbases, destroying 41 military planes, including strategic bombers. The attack took 18 months to plan and execute, and some Russian military bloggers are calling it “Russia's Pearl Harbor.” The budget bill passed by the US House contains a provision that would allow the federal government to increase taxes
“Iran nuclear talks survive, Claude 4 release, trade tensions reignite | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #21/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
...and the short term-chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year and the next. Executive summary The fifth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded with no agreement, but the two sides agreed to meet again. US intelligence suggests that Israel may strike Iranian nuclear sites, with or without Trump's blessing, if the talks break down. Forecasters estimate a 22% chance of a
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2025: US credit rating downgraded, $1T in Gulf state investments in the US, Kurdistan Workers’ Party disbanded.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Executive summary Moody's downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West. Google announce
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2025: India/Pakistan ceasefire, US/China tariffs deal & OpenAI nonprofit control” by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire, and despite initial breaches, it now seems to be holding. The Trump administration and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while talks continue. Markets rejoiced. The Trump administration continues to look into ending due process for immigrants to be deported and is making arrangements to deport undocumented immigrants to
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2025: US tariff shortages, military policing, Gaza famine.” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur
Executive summary Shortages of some goods expected in the US starting later this month, because of tariffs. The power outage on the Iberian Peninsula was the worst in Europe since 2003, and Europe may have been close to a more widespread blackout. Trump wants to involve the military in policing within the US. Negotiations between the US and Iran over its nuclear weapons program have stalled.
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #17/2025: India-Pakistan standoff, Iran and Ukraine talks, AI time horizons” by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary After a terrorist attack in Kashmir left 26 dead, relations between India and Pakistan sharply deteriorated, culminating in the exchange of fire across the border between the two countries. Forecasters examined the possibility of escalation. The third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded. On the same day, a blast at Iran's Bandar Abbas port left hundreds inju
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2025: Trade disruptions, US hacks China Winter Games, OpenAI not testing finetuned models.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Also Iran nuclear talks, dollar falling, trade disruptions. Executive summary Fallout from Trump's tariffs continues: trade patterns are shifting, Trump is feuding with the Chair of the Federal Reserve, the dollar is falling relative to other currencies, and US imports and exports are plummeting, as are manufacturing indicators in the US. The Trump administration continues to clash with the judi
“The US Executive vs Supreme Court Deportations Clash” by Nuño Sempere
Forecaster perspectives Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” (65% to 100%) the statement that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far. On the one hand, the Trump administration has done nothing to “facilitate” bringing Abrego García back to the US, and the White House's tweet shown above clearly indicates that it won’t try to; on the other hand, it could
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2025: Tariff yoyo, OpenAI slashing safety testing, Iran nuclear programme negotiations, 1K H5N1 confirmed herd infections.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary The Trump administration backtracked from his tariff plan, reducing tariffs from most countries to 10%, but imposing tariffs of 145% on China, which answered with 125% tariffs on US imports and export controls on rare earth metals. The US saw protests against Trump and DOGE, and the US Supreme court ruled that the administration must facilitate the return of an immigrant wrongly
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #14/2025: Chinese military exercises, French 2027 election front-runner banned, stock market fall” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur
Executive summary China carried out more aggressive live-fire military exercises around Taiwan. The US relocated missile batteries from the Pacific into the Middle East, raising some concerns that it was leaving the Pacific region vulnerable. Le Pen, the frontrunner for the 2027 French elections, was barred from running in those elections after being found guilty of embezzlement. Global stock mar
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #13/2025: Bombing Iran, Turkey protests, mpox vaning.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Executive summary Tensions between the US and Iran continued, as Iran replied to Trump's letter demanding that a new nuclear agreement be reached, and the US directed more military assets to positions near Iran. Last week, we estimated that there is a 1 in 3 chance that the US will strike Iran by the end of April, but have since lowered our estimate a bit. There are large-scale demonstrations in
“1 in 3 chance that US will strike Iran by end of April” by belikewater, Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur
Sentinel forecasters jointly estimate that there is a 36% chance (range, 25%-60%) that the US will launch airstrikes against nuclear weapons program facilities in Iran by the end of April, starting most likely between April 10 and April 25 and ending likely before May 1. The US military is bringing approximately six B-2 stealth bombers to a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia, an island in
″[Andrew Dragon] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢 Top items: Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order. Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise. The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50 Forecaster Estimates Forecasters, on aggr
″[Andrew] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢 Top items: Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order. Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise. The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50 Forecaster Estimates Forecasters, on aggr
“Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #12/2025: Famine in Gaza, H7N9 outbreak, US geopolitical leadership weakening.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Status: Greenish 🟢 Executive summary Forecasters believe there's an 18% chance (range: 4%-50%) that there will be a famine in any part of Gaza by the end of 2025, according to the UN and its Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). A Category 5 rating would result in a positive resolution, with the last IPC update suggesting that all of Gaza was in Category 4. As the US is becoming a
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