Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions, hosted by journalists and high-stakes poker players Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver. Together they apply an analytical framework to topics ranging from politics and poker to everyday personal choices. Maria has a PhD in psychology and became a professional poker player while researching her book The Biggest Bluff, while Nate founded FiveThirtyEight and is a leading election forecaster. The show is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Episodes
Nate and Maria’s 2026 Predictions
In the final episode of Risky Business, Nate and Maria check in on the predictions they made back in January for 2025, and then talk about what they think might be in store in 2026. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Best of Risky Business: Life After Poker (with Vanessa Selbst)
We look back at Nate and Maria’s interview with former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker, her move into the world of finance, and why, at her first job after poker, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe
Why Are Some Countries Happier Than Others?
Every year, the World Happiness Report comes out and the Nordic countries rejoice. Just kidding – sort of. Small, homogenous countries like Finland (2025’s happiest country) often top the list. But what does that really mean? Nate and Maria dive into the methodology of this research. As well as what it reveals (and doesn’t) about happiness. For more from Nate and Maria, subscri
Best Of Risky Business: Lessons From The River
When Nate’s book “On The Edge” released in 2024, Maria interviewed him about why he wrote it and what we can learn from the enigmatic risk-loving community he calls The River. Get your copy here For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy inform
Best of Risky Business: Building a Championship Team (with Daryl Morey)
We’re closing out the year with some of our (and your) favorite episodes to date. First up: Nate and Maria’s conversation with Philadelphia 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate
The Riskies! 2025 Edition
Nate and Maria give out their second annual awards for decision-making in 2025: Who made the best decision this year? Who made the worst? Who were 2025’s biggest nits and degens? And which host had the best poker year? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for pr
What’s In Store With Self-Driving Cars
Nate has ridden in a Waymo, and it was like stepping into the future. Maria’s never been in one, but she’s been stuck behind a lot of autonomous vehicles… They swap human-driven car horror stories and discuss some of the risks and benefits of a future full of self-driving cars. From the New York Times: The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course. For more f
What Movies Get Right and Wrong About Poker
Maria finally gets to reveal a project she’s been working on that’s been kept under wraps, and then it’s movie night on Risky Business! Nate and Maria talk about their favorite poker movies and explain why portrayals of poker for a movie audience often don’t get the game quite right. Plus, they share what poker movie they’d like to make and who’d play them in it
Frisky Business: Olivia Nuzzi, Ryan Lizza, and Journalistic Ethics
Nate and Maria game out the comparative benefits (and risks) of flying vs. driving vs. taking the train when traveling for the holidays. They also discuss Olivia Nuzzi’s new memoir, her ex-fiancé Ryan Lizza’s substack revelations about her, and the current state of journalistic ethics. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnik
The Prisoners’ Dilemma of Performance-Enhancing Drugs
This week we answer a question from listener Brandon, who’s noticed a rise in performance-enhancing drugs outside of sports. Nate and Maria discuss their own philosophies on PEDs, their impact on equilibriums, and what people risk when they decide to juice. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver&
NO LIMIT, Some AI… Poker’s Documentary-Gate
The WSOP’s NO LIMIT docuseries has been scrubbed from the internet following revelations that it includes AI-generated content, despite creator Dustin Ianotti’s explanation that the material “tracked closely” with other quotes and was only used for “faster scene transitions and narrative pacing." For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap&
Risky Business Live! How To Read People In Poker And Beyond
Most people are bad at spotting bluffs and tells – but there are ways to get better. Nate and Maria discuss tips and tricks from the poker tables with a live audience at Ludlow House in New York City. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Will The Epstein Files Sink Trump?
After months of resistance, President Trump made a striking reversal on the Epstein files this week, signaling he would sign legislation to release them. Nate and Maria discuss whether this is the start of a “lame duck” spiral for Trump, and whether (or to what extent) it will impact his tenure if the files do finally come to light. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their new
Society is betting on AI – and the outcomes aren’t looking good (with Nate Soares)
Humanity’s attempts to achieve artificial superintelligence will be our downfall, according to If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. That’s the new book out by AI experts Nates Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky. And while their provocation may feel extreme in this moment when AI slop abounds and the media is hyping a bubble on the verge of bursting, Soares is so convinced of his argument that
The Democrats Are Folding on the Shutdown
Despite a blue wave in recent state and local elections, Senate Democrats caved to Republican demands on the shutdown, giving up the health care subsidies they started the shutdown over nearly 50 days ago. Nate and Maria argue that the Democrats are squandering their momentum, and discuss the consequences for key figures like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. They also reflect on the election
Even Our Economy Is Gamified Now
From social media and dynamic pricing to meme stocks and AI hype, gamification has taken over our lives—and a recent op-ed argues that it’s even spread into our economy, driven by Trump. Nate and Maria discuss the psychology behind the “casino economy” and why speculation and risk are so addicting. They talk about what it means when governments, businesses, and individuals
What Happens in Vegas...Might Tell Us Something About the US Economy
With traffic down, gambling down, and hotel prices bottoming out, everyone’s asking: Is Las Vegas dead? Nate and Maria wade into the frenzy with some real data and hard-won experience. They talk about why casinos are struggling, what this indicates for the broader economy, and why high-end steak houses are, in fact, a recession indicator. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their new
What to Make of the NBA Sports Betting Scandal
Last week, two federal indictments and several high-profile arrests rocked the NBA. One indictment accused defendants of sharing insider information to cheat at sports betting, and the other accused over 30 co-conspirators, including members of various mafia families, of rigging poker games. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bu
Lessons From A Marathoner (with Nicholas Thompson)
Nate and Maria sit down with the elite amateur runner Nicholas Thompson (who also happens to be the CEO of The Atlantic) to talk about his new book The Running Ground. They discuss what running can teach about productivity and fulfillment, his favorite brand of gels, and…his late-father’s brothel in Bali. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap fro
The Canal, the Crash and the Ketamine - Pushkin's Reign of Error
We have a special episode for you today! In which Nate and Maria join their fellow Pushkin hosts to dive deep into the art of failure. Tim Harford of Cautionary Tales shares stories of minor mistakes with massive consequences. Jonathan Goldstein of Heavyweight speaks with his friend, the writer Sheila Heti about the cost of mistakes and whether we're really in control of how many we make. And, our
What Democrats Should Take from No Kings Protests
Over the weekend, some 5 million people across the United States marched in ‘No Kings’ protests. Nate and Maria sit down to talk about why this matters, the psychology of protests, and how Democratic strategists can build on the momentum going forward. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver
What the Nobels Tell Us About the World Right Now
The 2025 Nobel Prizes have now been announced, and Maria convinces Nate to learn about the winners. They discuss the selection process, the economic award for research on “creative destruction,” and what prizes they should be considered for. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See
Good Call/Bad Call: Bari Weiss as CBS’s New Editor-in-Chief
Last week, Paramount bought digital news site The Free Press for $150 million, and made one of its founders, Bari Weiss, the new editor-in-chief of CBS. Everyone has opinions on Weiss…and so do Nate and Maria. They debate whether Weiss has the expertise to be editor-in-chief of a TV network, discuss what her appointment says about Paramount CEO David Ellison’s vision for the company,
What Jane Goodall Teaches Us About Outsider Thought
Pioneering primatologist and anthropologist Jane Goodall died last week at 91. Nate and Maria talk about Jane’s career path and how her research influenced the fields of both animal and human cognition. They also discuss the significance of the outsider status she held when she began her research, and what everyone can learn from outsiders. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their n
With Sora 2, We’re Climbing Higher on the Dystopia Scale
Nate and Maria discuss how and when the government shutdown is most likely to end. Then, they turn to OpenAI’s newest release: Sora 2, an AI video generation app that allows users to create a video from a text prompt. As Maria struggles to think of some possible positive uses for this app, Nate considers what its release tells us about Open AI's goals for the future. From The Information: Wh
Sleep, Track, Don’t Multitask: How To Succeed In Online Poker
Nate and Maria discuss their favorite topic: poker! In this episode, they dive into the nuanced strategy of online poker: how to manage your schedule, how to prioritize information, and whether quantity trumps quality as you strive to improve. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.c
Will Eric Adams’s Exit Change the NYC Mayoral Election?
Eric Adams is out of the NYC mayoral race! Nate and Maria discuss his tenure as mayor, the timing of his announcement, and what this means for the remaining candidates. And — because it can be hard to remember a time before his multiple scandals and single-digit polling — they talk about the enthusiasm that once surrounded Adams, and what that arc says about the Democratic leadership v
Did the LA Clippers Take a Page from the Mob?
The NBA is investigating the LA Clippers and team owner Steve Ballmer over allegations that star player Kawhi Leonard accepted a $28 million endorsement as a way to get around the league’s salary cap. The endorsement deal was with the now-defunct sustainable banking company Aspiration—a company in which Ballmer has invested. Nate and Maria talk about whether Ballmer tried to take a pag
Presidents Have Tried To Censor the Media Before…and It Backfired
Disney briefly pulled Jimmy Kimmel off the air last week for comments he made about Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer, after FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened action against Disney and ABC. But this is not the first time the government has tried to censor the media: Maria walks us through a brief history of presidents trying to limit what the press says. Then, Nate and Maria discuss whether canc
When You Come at the King: Holding Presidents to Account (with Elie Honig)
It’s our first Saturday drop! Nate and Maria host former assistant US Attorney Elie Honig to discuss his new book, a brisk history of special counsels — plagued by politics, checked by presidents, declawed under Trump’s second term — and why rescuing the office matters. Find Elie’s book here: When You Come At The King For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their
Can The Center Hold After Charlie Kirk? Plus: Shutdown Strategy
Nate and Maria share their reactions to last week’s assassination of conservative organizer and activist Charlie Kirk, who died after sustaining a gunshot wound at a speaking event on a Utah campus. Then, they debate the Democrats’ strategy as a government shutdown looms — and Nate says what he would do if he were Chuck Schumer.NOTE: Risky Business will now be in your feeds twice
Is There Really A Crisis of Masculinity?
Tesla has offered CEO Elon Musk a package worth $1 trillion to stay at the helm of the company — if he can hit a series of very ambitious goals. All of this comes in the midst of a serious dip in performance at the company, with stock falling 16% this year (partly as a result of Musk’s controversial moves on the world stage). So this week, Nate and Maria play armchair quarterback in a
Determinative Decisions Before Birth: Genes and Names
Nate is on vacation this week, so Maria is joined by journalist David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene and Range. They talk about a new company that offers comprehensive genetic sequencing on embryos during the IVF process—at a high price. What are the ethics of this kind of technology? And what are the risks (and rewards) of trying to optimize your child’s genes? Plus, they discuss
The Game Theory of Reality TV (with Survivor’s Boston Rob)
This week, Maria interviews reality TV legend Boston Rob. Rob has been on Survivor six times, and has also appeared on The Amazing Race, The Traitors, and Deal or No Deal Island. He’s a master strategist with a psychology background. He and Maria discuss how to build trust strategically in a competitive environment, how to read your opponents’ motivations, and why it’s so importa
Where the Puck Is Going: Why Maximum Gerrymandering May Be Inevitable
As Texas embarks on a rare round of mid-decade redistricting and California threatens to answer with its own, Nate and Maria analyze the history, politics, and game theory of gerrymandering. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What’s the Optimal Personality for AI?
This week Nate and Maria discuss the release of GPT-5, the latest model from OpenAI. This model promises to be faster, smarter, and more useful while also reducing hallucinations and sycophancy. It also lets users choose among different AI “personalities.” What do Nate and Maria think so far? Then, they turn to the newly inked Nvidia trade deal, which notably includes a 15% cut of sale
America’s New AI Strategy
With all the frenzy last week around Jeffrey Epstein and ColdplayGate, you might have missed an important story: Trump’s new AI Action Plan. Released alongside three new executive orders on AI, the plan emphasizes deregulation, open sourcing, and “anti-woke” models in a race for industry dominance. Today, Nate and Maria get into the details and declare it… not bad? Further
You Play Better When You’re Having Fun (with Leo Margets and Erik Seidel)
To wrap up our coverage of the World Series of Poker, we bring you a poker interview extravaganza. This year, Leo Margets became the second woman ever to make it to the Main Event final table—and the first since 1995. Nate and Maria chat with Leo about her approach to poker, why having fun helps her play better, and how she felt about her historic 2025 WSOP. Then, they interview poker legend
The Butterfly Effect in Poker. Plus: How To Think About Conspiracies.
Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s sudden about face on the Epstein Files is ruffling feathers in his usually unruffle-able base. Will he be able to convince the true believers that there is, in fact, nothing to see here? And, how should we think ab
Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig)
Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that these measures sprang from “an abundance of caution.” But what was the evidence on the necessity of keeping kids home? And, looking back, did the benefits of prolonged school closure
Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities
Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking abou
Iran: Don’t Rush To Judge A Dangerous Moment
This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s strikes on Iran. How can we understand this developing situation, without falling prey to our own biases? And when nuclear weapons are involved, how do risk calculations change?Plus, Nate and Maria recap another week at the World Series of Poker, which wouldn’t be complete without some controversy.For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to thei
Cautionary Questions with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed? We're sharing this special episode of Cautionary Tales in which Nate and Maria make an appearance to answer listener questions with CT host Tim Harford.For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.See o
Does Ranked Choice Voting Work? Plus, New AI Predictions
Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system is supposed to help a consensus candidate win…but, does it? Finally, they talk about Nate’s recent trip to the Manifest conference in Berkeley, and why they’ve become more skeptical of the idea that artificial sup
This Year’s World Series Of Poker Is Different
Nate and Maria are back in Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker 2025. They discuss a key rule change that will have a major effect on their strategy. Then, they’re joined by a Risky Business listener who gets a crash course in tournament play. Finally, they look back on their own early days at the WSOP. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konn
An Elon Musk Report Card
Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer a listener question about how the US government can make better decisions. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver&
Why ChatGPT Sucks at Poker
ChatGPT is amazing at many things…but it can’t seem to figure out poker. Nate and Maria explain why, and talk about the implications for artificial general intelligence. Plus, they discuss Trump vs. Harvard, round two. Further Reading: Silver Bulletin: ChatGPT Is Shockingly Bad at Poker Harvard Derangement Syndrome, by Steven Pinker For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their new
Motivated Reasoning in the Biden Campaign, Silicon Valley, and Beyond
We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign and Silicon Valley. Also: Conspiracy theories and the NBA draft. Further Reading: Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover Up, and His Disast
What Should Colleges Do about ChatGPT?
Nate and Maria revisit their conclave predictions, and discuss Maria’s recent win in Monte Carlo. Then the talk about college students’ rampant use of ChatGPT to cheat on assignments, and how colleges and professors might be able to catch up. Further Reading: From New York Magazine: Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newslett
Life After Poker (with Vanessa Selbst)
Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker and her move into the world of finance (she now works for Jane Street Capital). They also discuss why, at her first job in finance, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk. For more from
The Conclave, Sinners, and Negotiation Tips
The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a ga
The Right (And Wrong) Ways to Fight Trump
This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in the court of public opinion than tariffs were. Picking a fight with Harvard may also be good politics for the administration. So: how should Democrats, and other anti-Trump forces, respond? Further
Will AI Radically Change the World by 2027?
This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback he gave the AI 2027 writers after reading an early
Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs
Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s latest round of tariffs. What is the strategy here, if any? What should other decision-makers – like Elon Musk or the United States’ Congress – do to intervene? And how should the average American react? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-fr
The Ivy League Bows to Trump, Plus Protecting Your Genetic Data and Your Time
This week – after a quick check in on their March Madness brackets – Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s showdown with the Ivy League. Should schools like Harvard and Columbia do more to stand up to the President’s demands? Then they turn to 23andMe, which has declared bankruptcy. They discuss privacy and whether it’s okay to swap your biometric data for more convenience a
Group Chat Protocols, Bracket Updates, and thoughts on the WNBA
This week, Nate and Maria discuss The Atlantic’s bombshell report about how its top editor was added to a national security group chat, and get into why the most major security risk is never technology–it’s always people. Then, they give an update on their March Madness bracket contest, and try to figure out why on earth players have to wait until they’re 22 to join the WNB
March Madness Bracket Extravaganza
This week, Nate and Maria talk college basketball. Nate explains how he made his recently-released March Madness model. Then, they compare their tournament brackets. Maria gets some help from Sacramento Kings GM Monte McNair, but also makes one bracket entirely based on vibes. Nate mostly sticks to his model, but makes a few surprising picks. Check out Maria’s brackets here. For more from Na
China’s Best Moves, and How to React to a Dealer’s Mistake
Last week, Nate and Maria talked about the game theory of American diplomacy right now. This week, they look at it from the perspective of America’s biggest rival: China. How should China respond as the US turns away from the global stage? What new opportunities do they have? Plus, both hosts weigh in on the poker controversy surrounding a recent big win… that was actually a loss. For
How Trump is Getting the Game Theory Wrong
This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s tariffs and analyze his strategy from a game theory perspective. They get into the difference between zero-sum and cooperative games, speculate on how Trump would act in the dictator game, and discuss the rationality of revenge. Then, they talk about the reboot of the infamous Fyre Festival, and why con artists so rarely reform. For more from Nate an
Thinking Smart About Low-Probability Events
This week, Nate and Maria discuss the asteroid that had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. That risk is now closer to 0%—but, what does this example reveal about how to consider extremely costly events that are fairly unlikely to come to pass? Then, they touch on the latest World Series of Poker drama and challenge each other to a game of Roshambo. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe t
Trust and Facing the Unknown (with Rachel Botsman)
This week, Maria speaks with trust expert Rachel Botsman about her new audiobook How To Trust and Be Trusted. What is trust? Why, even in the face of overwhelming evidence, do we sometimes trust the wrong people? And what can a luxury hotel teach us about how to repair a trust that’s been broken? And – for Pushkin+ subscribers – Nate and Maria answer a listener question about lea
Trump’s First Three Weeks: What Actually Matters?
Amid a maelstrom of executive orders and other presidential actions, Nate and Maria discuss best practices for staying focused on the important things. They also give their takes on what those important things are. And, they follow up on their Super Bowl prop bet – were there tears during the National Anthem? (They disagree – weigh in below.) Plus, Nate updates us on his housing search
Air Travel, Alcohol, and How to Bet On a Coin Toss
Our intuitive risk assessments can be way off–we’re too scared of hijackings, and not scared enough of crossing the street. This week, Nate and Maria discuss the real risks of plane travel, and of drinking alcohol. Then, they debate whether the sharp money is on heads or tails in the Super Bowl coin toss, and make a very serious bet about whether the national anthem will move any playe
Should You Learn Poker from ChatGPT? And Other AI Questions
In the wake of DeepSeek’s explosive entrance into the AI chatbot world, Nate and Maria talk AI strategy. At the national level and the personal level, what benefits does this technology actually have – and is it worth it? Plus, we tackle a question from listener Hugh about how to win big at his friendly, amateur poker night. Good luck, Hugh! For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to t
Trump’s Strategy: Distraction and Executive Action
What do the decisions Trump has made so far tell us about his strategy for his second term? And what strategic options do the Democrats have? Nate and Maria talk birthright citizenship, tech CEOs, memecoins, and pardons.And, Nate and Maria answer a listener question about the status of their driver’s licenses. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria
Wildfires, Insurance, and Planning for Disaster
Nate and Maria discuss the California wildfires. How do incentives in insurance markets drive decisions by homeowners – and by insurers? What’s the best way to make rational decisions about the disaster risks we all face?And they discuss a question from listener JM who asks what happens when the River and the Village mix it up in Washington? Further Reading: Colm Toíbin on the l
Nate and Maria’s 2025 Predictions
Nate and Maria share their predictions for the year to come, covering everything from the price of Bitcoin, to the fate of President Trump’s cabinet picks, to whether Nate will wear skinny jeans. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Learning From Failure, Avoiding Regret, and Managing Risk with Restaurateur Henry Rich
Maria talks to her friend Henry Rich about how he’s managed to find success in one of the world’s riskiest industries: restaurants. Themes include learning from failure, accounting for ruin, and finding meaning at work. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privac
Luigi Mangione, the Rise of Bluesky, and High-Stakes Chokes
Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make matters worse. Then, with the reigning world chess champion dethroned after a surprising choke, they discuss how they deal with high-stakes situations. Risky Business will be off next week. We’ll be back with a new episode on 1/
The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024
What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year’s most notable decisions in our first annual Riskies awards show. Also: degen of the year, nit of the year, and the cognitive bias that best explains 2024. Then, they give a quick poker update and answer a listener’s question about the expected value of lear
Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies
Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they offer some thoughts on game-theory optimal gift giving for the holiday season. By the way, Nate and Maria will be hosting a poker meet up at the Bellagio next week! 12pm PST on 12/11 at the Bellagio poker room in Las Ve
Maria and Nate’s Guide to GTO Travel
Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel mistakes they ever made. Then, Maria breaks down a scandal in academic psychology research – and she and Nate discuss the underlying incentives that have led researchers to make bad decisions. Do you
How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions
Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has approved to lower the risk of concussion – and explain why most players are deciding not to wear them. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver
Will Trump Bring the River to Washington?
Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the penultimate table of the North American Poker Tour Main Event. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnyst
How Trump Won
Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What to Look for on Election Day
On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he’ll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and Nate trade their predictions and fears for how election day will play out. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for
The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns
What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race.And of course, we spend some time looking at the model. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy info
Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting
Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in. Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest
How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers
This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet
Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment. Further Reading: The Big Announcement More on Thomas Schelling More on Stanislav Petrov aka the
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Exposing Workplace Bullying
Everyday AI Made Simple - AI For Everyday Tasks
FemTech Focus
Not Too Sensitive - Empowering Highly Sensitive People (HSPs) To Own Their Sensitivity
Mother Daughter Relationship Show
