Pivotal States
In a fragmented and transactional world, the United States faces a host of challenges. To meet the moment, Washington needs new habits of statecraft, the courage to make difficult trade-offs, and the wisdom to work with a diverse array of global partners. The American Statecraft’s Pivotal States podcast series focuses on key nations that present strategic challenges and opportunities for the United States. Through these conversations, the show aims to pave the way for a foreign policy equipped to navigate the mid-21st century.
Episodes
Can America Avoid a Forever War with Iran?
President Trump entered office promising a historic breakthrough with Iran. Instead, the United States finds itself in a costly war with no clear end in sight. Despite moments of optimism for diplomacy, fighting persists, raising difficult questions about why Washington has repeatedly failed to escape decades of conflict with Tehran.
Why has it proven so difficult for successive administrations—Re
Is America Ready to Reset Ties with Israel?
For decades, the U.S.-Israel relationship has been one of the closest partnerships in American foreign policy. Today, that relationship is under immense strain. Israel's brutal response to the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack and the costs of the war on Iran have fueled serious questions about the wisdom of continued U.S. support for Israel. The growing gap between American and Israeli interests i
Is America's North Korea Policy Out of Touch with Reality?
For decades, U.S. policy toward North Korea has been organized around a single objective: denuclearization. Yet despite sanctions, diplomatic initiatives, and pressure campaigns, Pyongyang has continued to expand its nuclear arsenal while deepening its ties with Russia and China.
Christopher Chivvis speaks to Dr. Victor Cha, one of the world's leading experts on North Korea, to examine how America
Do U.S.-German Relations Have a Future?
Germany is the key power in Europe today. The future of the continent—and America's relations with it—will hinge on decisions made in Berlin. Yet the relationship is under mounting strain amid the war with Iran, President Trump's claims on Greenland, and possible withdrawals of U.S. troops from Germany. Has longstanding trust between Washington and Berlin been irreparably broken? What can Germany
Should Americans Fear China's Dominance?
In Washington, policymakers frame competition with China as a zero-sum contest for power. But does slowing China’s progress actually benefit Americans—or is it a fool’s errand? What might a more stable future for U.S.-China relations look like, and what would it take to achieve it?
In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Jessica Chen Weiss, the David M. Lampton Profes
What Does the United States Want From Cuba?
For more than sixty years, Cuba’s revolutionary government has survived economic crises and sustained pressure from the United States. But today, the island may be facing its most severe test yet. Daily life is grinding to a halt, under intense economic pressure from the Trump administration. Some U.S. officials are even predicting the imminent collapse of its longstanding communist regime.
But w
Spheres of Influence or American Primacy? The World Trump is Making
From 'spheres of influence' to 'naked imperialism' to 'peace through strength,' analysts of foreign affairs are offering competing explanations for Trump’s foreign policy whirlwind. Over the past year, he has rattled the world with tariffs, negotiated a ceasefire in Gaza, conducted strikes in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and even issued threats of conquering an ally’s territory. Wh
Does Trump Understand America's Real Interests in Venezuela?
President Trump campaigned on peace. Yet, for months, he expanded America’s military presence in the Caribbean to its largest since the Cold War. Just days into 2026, Trump had Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro captured and taken to a New York prison. Trump claims the United States will “run the country” until a proper transition takes place. Now the world’s left wondering what that means and wh
Inside America's Stubborn Rivalry with Iran
U.S.–Iranian animosity has persisted relentlessly for more than four decades. From the Cold War to the unipolar moment to today’s multipolar world, tensions between the United States and Iran have remained a constant in an otherwise shifting geopolitical landscape. Understandably, Washington blames Tehran. But where does American agency fit into this story? Where have U.S. policymakers missed chan
Peril and Promise in the U.S.–China AI Race
The contest to stay on the leading edge of AI is rapidly taking center stage in America’s strategic competition with China. But what does it actually mean to beat China in AI? Does the United States have the right strategy for navigating this contest? Are policymakers overstating the threats posed by China, or by artificial intelligence itself? And can Washington and Beijing cooperate on areas of
Hard Limits: Testing U.S. Power in Ukraine
President Donald Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. He sent his negotiator Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for multiple rounds of negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, and even hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin at a high-profile summit in Alaska this August. But despite these moves, the war grinds on with no resolution in sight. Negotiati
Would an Asian NATO Be Good for America?
This summer, during a trip to Asia, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reiterated that the Indo-Pacific is the U.S. Department of Defense’s priority theater. Yet unlike Europe, the region still lacks a multilateral defense alliance, relying instead on a patchwork of bilateral ties and minilateral arrangements. Should the U.S. push for a formal defense pact in the Pacific? Advocates say a new a
Trump 2 at 6 Months: Fury and Furor, But What’s Changed?
In his second term, President Trump cast himself as a “peacemaker and unifier” and tried to bring a swift end to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Six months later, however, those conflicts continue, and last month Trump launched strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran.What has actually changed? Is Trump altering the trajectory of American global power or ultimately delivering more of the sam
America and Iran: Is a New Chapter Possible?
Few relationships are as fraught, and as consequential, as America and Iran’s. The Trump administration inherited a golden opportunity to strike a deal, but the path has been anything but smooth. With the Trump now in nuclear talks with Iran, the question looms: Could this be a Nixon-to-China moment? What would a deal mean for the region? What benefits could it bring, and what’s at stake?Join Chri
How Pivotal is the United Kingdom? The Future of U.S.-UK Relations
America’s relationship with the United Kingdom is one of the deepest in the world, but in the face of changing interests and new geopolitical pressures, how important will the UK be to the future of American statecraft? UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made it clear that London will not choose between the U.S. and the EU. But navigating this delicate balance isn’t easy. Where is the “special rel
How is Taiwan Reacting to the Trump Administration? Four Experts Visited Taiwan to Find Out
As the United States overhauls its foreign policy approach, Taiwan is on high alert. The Trump administration’s push for a Ukraine settlement has led many to question Washington’s commitment to Taiwan. What do leaders in Taipei think of these geopolitical changes? What’s the pulse of the Taiwan public?To find out, American Statecraft Program and national security experts Christopher S. Chivvis, S
Food Security Reimagined | Barbecue Earth
Winners and losers—every major transition has them. For the world to meet its climate goals, it needs to undergo a partial shift away from traditional meat and toward alternative proteins. But who would be the winners and losers of a global protein transition? In Episode 6, we investigate what this transition might look like and what it could mean for national security and geopolitics.
Consider the Lobster | Barbecue Earth
There’s a lot to learn from the lobster. Its transformation from disdained prison food to fine-dining delicacy reveals how culture shapes our palate and how people could start to get a taste for food that does less damage to the planet than a bacon cheeseburger. In Episode 5, we look to the future of alternative proteins—from bean burgers to lab-grown nuggets—and ask what it would look like to liv
Uncle Sam and the Magic Beanstalk | Barbecue Earth
The soybean is more than just a humble legume—it’s a major geopolitical player that feeds the international meat market, shapes trade wars, and transforms economies. In Episode 4, we tell the story of how the soybeans that feed pigs around the world have shaped the geopolitical behavior of what some call “the Meat Triangle”: the United States, Brazil, and China.
How to Launder a Cow | Barbecue Earth
You’ve probably heard of money laundering. But while some choose to launder dirty cash, others launder cows. Episode 3 tells the story of one Brazilian company’s entanglement with the smuggling and selling of illegal cattle throughout the Amazon—and explores how big meat companies around the world use their power to undermine climate goals.
Barbecue Earth Trailer
Meat isn’t just delicious. It’s also an important commodity, a politically powerful industry, and a big reason why our planet is overheating. Join the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace for our new podcast Barbecue Earth, as we explore the intersection of meat, climate change, and geopolitics.
Hog Country | Barbecue Earth
In the United States, agriculture plays by a different set of rules than other sectors. With its lax child labor laws and lack of environmental restrictions, the American farming industry operates in a uniquely under-regulated environment. Why? Episode 1 explores the history of agricultural exceptionalism and how it impacts the lives of North Carolina residents living close to factory farms.
The Farmers Strike Back | Barbecue Earth
Tractors blocking government buildings. Manure piled on highways. The birth of a populist political party. In the Netherlands, government regulations on agriculture’s nitrogen emissions have sparked backlash from Dutch farmers. In Episode 2, we tell the story of this quarrel. It holds lessons for all countries, in Europe and beyond, that are facing rising agricultural populism as they begin to imp
Trouble in the Blue House | Behind Closed Doors
The third episode, "Trouble in the Blue House," dissects the corruption scandal often called "South Korea's Watergate." When former President Park Geun-hye was first elected in 2013, she held widespread conservative support and was internationally celebrated as the country's first female president. No one could have predicted that just 5 years later, she would end up embroiled in a corruption case
Seeing the Monster | Behind Closed Doors
The second episode, "Seeing the Monster," explores what some call the biggest corruption scandal in history—Brazil's Lava Jato scandal. The story begins at a small gas station in southern Brazil, where a single arrest for bribery in 2013 unleashed a domino effect that would topple hundreds of business executives, imprison a former head of state, and impeach the sitting president. The aftermath of
Behind Closed Doors Trailer
Introduction to Behind Closed Doors: Corruption in Democracies
If Men Were Angels, We Wouldn't Need Government | Behind Closed Doors
What is corruption in democracies? How has it changed over time? And, in what forms does it emerge in our society today? Episode 1, 'If Men Were Angels, We Wouldn't Need Government,' answers these questions through the lens of case studies in the United States, including the political scandal of former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich, U.S. Supreme Court decisions that have eroded controls on inf
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