Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped
Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped is a podcast from Moody’s Analytics. Host Gaurav Ganguly, chief international economist, explores the forces shaping the global economy. He is joined by members of the Moody’s Analytics economic research team. Together they discuss key indicators, underlying trends, and evolving risks. The show offers sharp, data-driven insights from a global perspective.
Episodes
Food Prices Getting Hotter
Could El Niño deliver the next inflation shock? In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Kamil Kovar, Denise Cheok, Jeemin Bang and Deni Kasa to examine how a potentially powerful El Niño could affect food prices, inflation and monetary policy across Asia Pacific and Europe.The team explores the risks to rice and other key commodities, the potential for drought
Higher for Longer
Surging government bond yields continue to raise alarm across the global economy. Gaurav, Andrew and Kamil unpack the latest sell-off in global bond markets and assess the relative importance of inflation fears, fiscal concerns and changing expectations for short-term interest rates. They explore the ongoing fallout from the Iran conflict, the prospect of further rate hikes by the ECB and Bank of
Panda-monium
In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Stefan and Denise join Gaurav to unpack two big stories. First, they examine the much-anticipated Trump-Xi summit, concluding that while the optics were carefully choreographed, the outcome was largely a continuation of the existing US-China stalemate on trade, technology, Taiwan and AI. The discussion explores why stability may be the best either s
Unbroken Britain
With the U.K. continuing to confound expectations, Gaurav is joined by David and Andrew to assess a run of surprisingly resilient growth data and ask whether the economy is finally breaking out of its recent pattern of strong starts to the year followed by weak finishes. Consumer spending and business investment have both held up well, but rising energy prices, a soft labour market and slowing rea
The Curious Case of Europe's Recovery
The European economy refuses to cooperate with the pessimists. Despite conflict in the Middle East, high energy prices and persistent uncertainty, euro zone growth has remained surprisingly solid with consumers proving resilient despite another blow to their purchasing power. Gaurav, Barbara, Andrew and Kamil discuss if the good news is sustainable, what is driving the recovery in sentiment, and w
Chip Happens
Gaurav, Stefan and Denise take the temperature of the Asia-Pacific economy, where the AI boom keeps powering ahead and Taiwan's exports have overtaken Japan's for the first time. The team digs into what's driving the region's K-shaped split, with chip-heavy economies like Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia posting growth north of 5% even as wages stay soft, consumers hold back, and other sectors langu
Much Ado About.....Nothing?
In this episode of Global Economy Unwrapped, the GEU team tours the world, looking at risks. The global economy continues to hold up despite a number of large shocks and potential problems, so have markets become inured to geopolitical risk? The team discusses the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, persistent trade tensions, cracks in the AI boom, rising yields, and the potential for monetary po
Meet the Experts: The Non-Negotiable European Holiday
Europeans may be gloomy about the economy, but they're still packing their bags. In this episode of Meet the Experts, Gaurav Ganguly and Barbara Teixeira Araujo are joined by Olia Kuranova and Jessica Demel to unpack the surprising resilience of European tourism. Why are holidays proving "non-negotiable" despite weak consumer confidence, inflation and geopolitical tensions? And how are heatwaves,
Offices and AI
How resilient is commercial real estate in a world of geopolitical shocks, shifting work patterns, and rapid advances in AI? Dominic Brown, Head of International Research at Cushman & Wakefield joins GEU for a wide-ranging discussion on the forces reshaping global property markets. From booming office demand in India and ultra-tight vacancy rates in Tokyo to the divergent fortunes of cities, secto
Nothing Ever Happens
Gaurav, Kamil and Andrew take stock of the recent macroeconomic data for the euro zone. They talk about growth coming slightly above expectations, and why the data haven't really shown any impact from the Iran conflict. They conclude that while the exact number was a slight upside surprise relative to the forecast, it was in line with the broader macroeconomic narrative. They then turn to inflatio
Devolution, Oil and Tariffs
A new prime minister in Downing Street, renewed conflict between the US and Iran, volatile oil markets and another round of US tariffs: it has been an eventful few weeks for the global economy. Andrew Hunter, Denise Cheok and Suren Vardanyan join Gaurav to assess whether Andy Burnham’s plans for devolution, investment and tax reform can lift the UK’s weak growth prospects. The discussion then turn
Meet the Experts: Crude, Currencies and Central Banks
GEU calls on its experts to examine the forces shaping Asia’s economic outlook. China specialist Sarah Tan and APAC central bank watcher John Bromhead join Gaurav and Denise to discuss the region’s latest challenges.
The team begins by reminding listeners that energy security remains a critical issue across Asia before turning to China’s slowing economy. They then explore how central banks have r
Strait Talk with AMRO’s Dong He
Gaurav, Stefan, and Denise sit down with Dong He, Chief Economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, for a wide-ranging look at Asia's economic outlook. With the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. on shaky ground and the Strait of Hormuz back in focus, the conversation weighs up growth, inflation and energy security across the region. Dong He also shares AMRO's take on the artificial i
Europe's Digital Dilemma
Europe has built a digital architecture that is heavily reliant on the U.S. and China. It depends heavily on the former for software, cloud services, artificial intelligence and online platforms, while relying on the latter for the hardware, components and critical minerals beneath them. Two dependencies, very different in nature, both creating vulnerabilities that are difficult to unwind.
In this
Brent, Burnham and Brexit
With crude oil prices continuing to fall as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, Gaurav is joined by Barbara and Andrew to assess whether Europe is finally turning a corner. The euro zone inflation data raise hopes that the worst of the energy shock may be behind us, but the team warn of lingering risks from gas markets and delayed price pass-through still to come. The downside risks to growth
Asia's Alphabet Soup Economies
Gaurav, Stefan and Denise turn their attention back to Asia-Pacific after months dominated by the Middle East conflict. With signs that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to resume, the team weighs whether the worst is over and the shock to the region's economies may yet prove transitory. They also dig into the K-shaped nature of Asian growth, where the AI boom is delivering blockb
Europe: Transformation Amidst Turbulence
In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, and Andrew are joined by Andrea Montanino, Chief Economist at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Italy, and former Executive Director at the IMF, to explore the profound transformations reshaping Europe’s economy. Framed around four key pillars—demographics, geopolitics, energy, and technology—the discussion examines the structural forces weighing on Europe’s growth and c
European Growth: Weak and Wavering
In the second part of a Europe mini-series, the focus shifts to the region’s growth outlook as the Middle East conflict weighs on momentum. Higher oil prices have led to downward revisions in growth forecasts, though the eurozone remains in a fragile expansion. Underlying domestic demand is soft: consumers remain cautious, investment is weak, and export strength reflects temporary front-loading. T
Inflation Insurance
Inflation is again testing Europe’s policymakers, raising uncomfortable questions about how persistent recent upward pressure will prove and how best to respond. In the first part of a European special, Gaurav is joined by Kamil, Andrew and Barbara to unpack the latest euro zone inflation data and what is driving the renewed pickup in services prices. They explore the role of energy costs, insuran
Bond Markets on Edge
Rising bond yields have moved centre stage as turmoil in the Middle East pushes up energy prices and rattles global markets. In this episode, Gaurav, Andrew, Kamil, Denise and Stefan dig into what’s driving the recent jump in government bond yields, and how much reflects inflation fears versus fiscal and political concerns. From U.K. budget worries to Asia’s vulnerability to external shocks, the t
Reflections on Growth: No Strait Answer
Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Andrew, Suren and Kamil to take stock of a global economy that is still holding up—just—three months into the Middle East conflict. Oil prices remain range‑bound for now, but the team warns that policy buffers are thinning and risks are becoming increasingly non‑linear. Asia is still benefiting from the AI boom, Europe’s economy looks more fragile as sentiment sours, wh
He Said, Xi Said
Gaurav, Denise, Stefan and Andrew unpack the fallout from President Donald Trump’s closely watched meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing. With plenty of warm words but few concrete breakthroughs, the discussion turns to what this means for U.S.‑China trade, tariffs and the longer‑term reality of technological decoupling between the world’s superpowers. The team also explores the implication
U.K. Special: Bond Yields and Ballot Boxes
Gaurav is joined by Andrew and David for a long-overdue deep dive into the U.K, where the Middle East conflict has darkened the growth and inflation picture just as the economy seemed to be stabilising. The team debate whether the economy’s surprisingly good start to the year reflects genuine strength or lingering seasonal quirks in the data, and why the surveys now point to a sharp slowdown. They
Crisis in the Middle East: A Failure of Imagination
Gala Riani, Head of Strategic Intelligence at SRM joins Gaurav, Suren and Barbara for an in‑depth conversation that explores the continued crisis in the Middle East. The discussion explores how the conflict has shifted from a military confrontation to an economic campaign, with a focus on U.S. strategy, Iran’s internal political dynamics, and the growing role of economic pressure and blockades. Ri
Europe: Optimism with a Lag
In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Andrew Hunter, Kamil Kovar, and Barbara Teixeira Araújo to discuss the team’s expectations for the conflict in the Middle East and its implications for the European outlook. The panel agrees that the most likely path forward is a messy reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though there is less consensus on how quickly this w
Lots of Questions...
Gaurav, Denise and Stefan reconvene after their recent webinar to tackle the flood of audience questions on the Middle East conflict and its global spillovers. They unpack different conflict scenarios, trace the knock‑on effects across energy, supply chains and commodity markets, and assess how vulnerable Asia‑Pacific is to another major price shock. The conversation then turns to growth risks acr
The Romance of the Three Kingdoms
Dr Henry Wang, President of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing and a member of several international think tanks, joins GEU for a wide‑ranging discussion on China and its evolving role on the global stage. The conversation opens with China’s efforts to mediate an end to the current conflict in the Middle East, before turning to U.S.–China relations and what to expect from the forthc
Risks Everywhere
Gaurav and the GEU team take listeners on a tour of the global risk landscape. The discussion begins in the Middle East, where conflict is disrupting energy markets, creating significant security concerns and weighing on growth. Meanwhile, Asia's reliance on Gulf energy collides with higher prices, supply‑chain strains and trade tensions – even as the AI‑driven export boom offers a buffer. The tou
Pork, Prices and Politics
Gaurav, Denise and Stefan meet to dig into the impact of the Middle East conflict on APAC economies. They discuss which countries could eventually run into trouble if the energy and food price shock drags on, and what governments can do to mitigate the fallout. The conversation then turns to China and the updated priorities set out at this year’s Two Sessions meeting. How does Beijing view the spi
Japan Outlook: Oil Risk and Summit Stakes
GEU sits down with David Boling, Principal at The Asia Group, to unpack what Japan is walking into as Prime Minister Takaichi heads to Washington and conflict in the Middle East rattles energy markets. Oil supply chains are under strain, the yen wobbles, and U.S. President Donald Trump shows no sign of easing his tariff instincts. Japan clearly has its work cut out. Can Tokyo still lean on old all
Oil Without a Way Out
Gaurav, Kamil and Stefan unpack the latest developments in the Middle East conflict and what they mean for the global economy. The world still runs on oil, and Middle East producers are keen to sell, but the Strait of Hormuz blockage is squeezing supply routes and pushing storage higher, with production cuts looming. The team asks what all of this means for Europe, APAC and the broader global outl
A Tense Situation in the Middle East
GEU unpacks the broader fallout of the strikes against Iran. Energy prices have jumped, and a risk-off sentiment prevails in markets. There is a danger that the situation could get worse. Iran has retaliated, and a number of countries in the region have come under attack. Despite the worrying news, the team explains why it believes the conflict will end in a matter of weeks and why the global econ
Global Economy Unwrapped
Join Gaurav Ganguly, chief international economist at Moody’s Analytics, as he unpacks the forces shaping the global economy. In Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav is joined by members of Moody’s Analytics economic research team to discuss key indicators, underlying trends, and evolving risks—offering sharp, data-driven insights from a global perspective.
Questions or Comments, please email us at GE
Tariff Trouble and the Dollar Dilemma
Gaurav and the GEU crew break down the U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump's sweeping global tariffs, and what his replacement 15% tariff means for trade, supply chains, and global growth. The team debates who wins, who loses, and whether firms will rush to front-load shipments again before barriers rise anew. The conversation then turns to the dollar. What could trigger a su
U.K. Twists and Turns
David and Andrew join Gaurav to discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the outlook. While U.K. economic prospects remain quite subdued, the unemployment rate should level off this year, and an imminent easing in the inflation rate is a notable bright spot. Another rate cut by the Bank of England looks to be just around the corner. However, the return of political uncertainty is a less welcome d
Asia Spotlight: Oil, Trade and Tariffs
Gaurav, Suren, Stefan and Denise get together to unpack a flurry of trade developments in Asia. The U.S. and India announce a trade deal that cut tariffs from 50% to 25%, but with scant details. The team discuss the possibility of India halting purchases of Russian oil and committing to $500 billion in U.S. goods. What would a shift towards Venezuelan oil look like? Elsewhere, Taiwan reaches its o
Greenland, Green Shoots
Gaurav and the EMEA team are back for a surprisingly upbeat roundup of all things Europe. Barbara and Kamil discuss the better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures, with even Germany finally showing signs of a revival. With the business surveys improving and Germany’s huge fiscal package set to feed through, is the euro zone economy set for more robust growth in 2026 than previously thought? M
How to talk to your dog about 30-year JGBs
Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan get together to discuss what drove Asia-Pacific in 2025 and what lies ahead in 2026. Exports surprised on the upside, with China posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus despite higher U.S. tariffs. Denise points to rerouting and shifting supply chains, while Gaurav argues that Chinese competitiveness does much of the work. The outlook for 2026 looks far less comfort
Could Greenland derail European growth?
Gaurav is joined by Barbara, Andrew and Kamil for a deep dive discussion on the European outlook. Will 2026 be the year that euro zone growth finally picks up momentum? The team offer a number of reasons for optimism, including the fading impact from last year’s U.S. tariffs, lower interest rates, an apparent upturn in the global industrial cycle and the huge fiscal boost set to feed through in Ge
From Tariffs to Territorial Expansion
Gaurav and the GEU team unpack the key risks facing the global economy in 2026, but it soon becomes clear that economic forces risk being sidelined by geopolitics. How will the extraordinary U.S. actions in Venezuela affect oil markets and could it embolden Russia or China to make similar moves? Will the U.S. really seek to annex Greenland? And will 2026 bring more tariff pain, or is territorial e
Jingle Bells, China Sells
Andrew, Barbara, Denise, and Stefan join Gaurav for a festive deep dive into global manufacturing. They explore how China became the world’s workshop, climbing the value chain and reshaping the development model pioneered by Japan and South Korea. The conversation tackles China’s dominance in green tech, its implications for global investment, and whether emerging markets like Brazil and Vietnam c
Globalisation Remains a Powerful Force
Professor Kazuto Suzuki of the University of Tokyo, and Director of the Institute of Geoeconomics joins GEU to discuss the future of globalisation. A wide-ranging discussion ensues which looks back over 2025 and looks ahead over the next few years. Globalisation remains an unstoppable force, despite fears that policy will be increasingly used as a weapon by countries to protect their geopolitical
Europe Roundup: Growth Perks Up as Russia-Ukraine Talks Stall
Gaurav and the EMEA team return to unpack a busy few weeks of economic and geopolitical news. The latest data suggest the euro zone economy is showing signs of life, but the continued reluctance of consumers to spend remains a concern. The discussion turns to the U.S. and Russia’s bombshell 28-point peace plan for Ukraine and the whirlwind of negotiations that have ensued. While a lasting resoluti
U.K. Budget Blues
Gaurav is joined by Andrew and David to unpack the economic implications of the U.K. budget. After weeks of speculation and rumours of painful tax hikes, the government’s latest fiscal plans imply a less severe tightening than many had feared. But the team struggle to identify anything in the budget likely to move the needle on the U.K.’s longer-term growth prospects. And although Chancellor Rache
Where Things Are Made and Where Things Are Bought
Gaurav, Denise and Stefan unpack U.S. President Trump’s late-October swing through Asia and what it means for who makes what—and who buys it. The centrepiece was the Trump-Xi meeting, which produced a brief ceasefire in the tariff fight and set the stage for another round of talks in early 2026. In Southeast Asia, Trump signed four market-access and procurement deals that overwhelmingly favoured t
LatAm Elections: As the Pendulum Swings
LatAm team members Juan Pablo Fuentes and Jesse Rogers join Gaurav to take stock of the 2025-2026 electoral cycle. Gaurav and Juan Pablo discuss the economic landscape in Argentina following Javier Milei’s midterm victory. The conversation then turns to Lula, tariffs, and the economic outlook for Brazil. Jesse falls for Lula’s recent charm offensive. The discussion concludes with a discussion of L
Globalisation: Battered and Bruised but not Broken
In this episode, Gaurav and the team tackle a critical question: what does the future hold for globalisation? They explore how the U.S. has upended the world order this year—through tariffs, brinkmanship, and the weaponisation of economic policy—yet global growth has proved more resilient than expected. The discussion also delves into the global spillovers of U.S.-China tensions, from rare earths
A Middle East Story: Peace, Oil, Sanctions and Growth
Gaurav, Suren, Charlie, and Aidan explore the new peace in the Middle East. They start with the newly agreed twenty-point peace plan between Israel and Hamas and explore its regional implications. Despite limited details and timelines, the ceasefire has held and advanced further than previous efforts—particularly in terms of hostage returns. While full implementation remains distant, all parties a
The European Roundup: French Chaos and Manufacturing Woes
In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, Andrew, and Kamil break down Europe’s latest economic and political events. They begin with France’s ongoing political saga—where recent developments have reduced immediate instability but left deeper issues unresolved, casting further doubt on the government’s fiscal recovery plans. The team then explores the impact that U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs will have on E
Pharma Tariffs Not a Panacea for All ills
Gaurav, Stefan and Denise meet face-to-face for the first time to unpack the flurry of developments shaping the Asia-Pacific. Front and centre are fresh U.S. tariffs targeting pharmaceuticals, heavy-duty trucks, and furniture. Indonesia and the EU sign a long-awaited free trade agreement, while Japan’s ruling LDP looks set to shift further right with its first potential female prime minister. On t
Central Banks' Jedi Mind Tricks
Kamil, Stefan, Denise, and David join Gaurav to discuss the rationale for central bank independence and the goals of monetary policy. The discussion then turns to decisions made by central banks in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region after the pandemic, when central banks grappled with surging inflation.
Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To st
A Manufacturing Odyssey
In the first episode of a mini-series on global manufacturing, Gaurav and the team take a sweeping look at the sector’s evolution—from its roots in the liberalization and technological breakthroughs of the late 20th century to the geopolitical tensions shaping it today. They explore how different development models across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. have created distinct strengths and vulnerabiliti
Mind the (output) gap
Gaurav, Sarah, and Denise dive into the latest run of data out of ASEAN, where frontloading has helped prop up growth in the first half of the year. But with U.S. tariffs finally kicking in from August, the team weighs the risks to the region’s second-half outlook. Inflation remains moderate and within central bank targets, prompting a wave of monetary easing amid a weaker U.S. dollar. Still, grow
No Fiscal Free Lunch
Brittany Merollo joins the team to discuss France's ongoing political shake-up and the appointment of a new prime minister. They assess the implications for the 2026 budget, the fading prospects for fiscal consolidation, and France’s subdued growth outlook. Before they get into France, Barbara, Kamil, and Gaurav unpack the Eurozone’s latest growth figures, exploring how frontloading boosted first-
Sticky Rice and Shaky Trade
With frontloading fading and trade on shaky ground, Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan sift through Asia-Pacific’s latest export figures for signs of a slowdown. China’s manufacturing PMI offers little comfort; soft across the board and especially grim on the jobs front. Over in Japan, a surge in rice prices is keeping inflation sticky, but wage growth isn’t playing ball. So why won’t the BoJ hike? The te
The 40% club
Gaurav, Kamil and Andrew return to discuss the latest news on the European economy. Kamil unpacks the latest trade and industrial production data and what they reveal about the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. Is the weakness just a reversal of earlier frontloading in pharmaceuticals, or are tariffs starting to bite? Meanwhile, Andrew discusses the key takeaways from the text of the EU-U.S. trade ag
Peace in Ukraine: A Nobel Effort
Andrew, Barbara, and Denise join Gaurav for an in-depth exploration of the multifaceted Russia-Ukraine conflict, including potential peace terms and shifting scenarios. They assess the unexpected resilience of the Russian economy amid sanctions and growing internal challenges. The team also examines global energy markets, focusing on Russian oil flows to India and China, Europe’s reliance on Russi
Compute is the New Oil
Gaurav and Andrew welcome Suren Vardanyan and Charlie Houston to the podcast to discuss the Middle East. The region remains relatively insulated from U.S. tariffs and has avoided the worst effects of recent global shocks. The team breaks down the shifting role of hydrocarbon exports and revenues, debates evolving tail risks in geopolitics, and discusses how significant investments in AI and future
Boiling the (Chocolate) Frog
Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Denise, Andrew, and Kamil for a bumper episode on the global fallout from the latest wave U.S. tariffs and deals. The team debates whether this is the end of globalization as we know it or just a messy new chapter. From the EU’s apparent capitulation and Switzerland’s chocolate woes to Japan’s plan B and Southeast Asia’s tightrope walk, the team breaks down the implicat
Struggling to Catch a Break
David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for another U.K. special. The U.K. increasingly appears to have done relatively well in recent trade negotiations with the U.S., but the team struggle to find much else to be cheerful about, with the second half of 2025 still likely to bring weak growth, stubborn inflation and higher taxes. The team debate whether further rate cuts by the Bank of England will bri
It’s Not Over Yet
Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan dissect the shock loss of the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition in Japan’s upper house elections. Cost-of-living woes and anti-foreign rhetoric dominated the campaign. So, is Japan catching the populism bug for good? Then it’s on to the U.S. trade deal blitz across Asia, from Tokyo to Manila to Hanoi. Equity markets are cheering, but are these deals anything more than smoke a
Fight or Flight
After another flurry of U.S. tariff announcements, Gaurav and team unpack what it all means for Europe. As the clock ticks toward the new August 1 deadline, the prospect of an EU-U.S. deal looks touch-and-go, while the team also debate whether the EU is more likely to try and fight higher U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures of its own. Although recent data suggest European economies have held u
What Goes Up Must Come Down
Hot on the heels of President Trump’s latest tariff salvos, Stefan, Katrina and Denise break down the dizzying hikes and what they spell for Asia’s export-driven economies. No matter where tariffs eventually settle, the pain will ripple through the region. With most governments keeping their fiscal purse strings tight, central banks will be left holding the bag to keep economies afloat. And as the
German Lessons
Gaurav and the team are joined by Ben Acton-Bond for a special episode on Germany. Ben explains how the German economy is likely to fare in the face of higher U.S. tariffs, amid mixed signals from the recent data. The team debates whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plans to ramp up spending on infrastructure and defense will lift Germany out of its years-long slump or if a recession is still a si
Negotiating Around Tariffs: The Expanding Relationship Between Europe and Southeast Asia
Steve, Katrina and Gaurav welcome Karl Godderis, the CEO of EUROCHAM in Malaysia for an in-depth conversation about the expanding trade relationship between the EU and Southeast Asia. While tariffs are not an issue, both sides must face the EU’s regulatory environment. Katrina and Gaurav also say goodbye and thanks to Steve on the eve of his retirement.
Questions or Comments, please email us at G
That Sinking Feeling
Gaurav, Kamil, and Barbara return for a timely discussion on the rising risks of recession in Europe. They begin by unpacking four major threats currently weighing on the region’s outlook. Gaurav opens with an analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict and its potential economic spillovers, including developments in oil markets. Kamil follows with a look at the implications of an escalating trade war, w
Leverage, Leverage, Leverage
Fresh off the heels of a U.S.-China trade truce reached in London, Ambassador Kurt Tong , Managing Partner at The Asia Group joins the Asia podcast crew. The team discusses the implications of the chaotic U.S. policy and how China and the broader region are readjusting to the dramatic shifts. Steve and Kurt sneak in some baseball references. Go Phillies!Guest: Kurt Tong, Managing Partner at The As
Stockpiling, Sales and Storms
With new euro zone data releases, and an ECB decision to boot, there is plenty to talk about. Gaurav and team roll up their sleeves and do what they do best: analyze the numbers. Gaurav and Kamil kick off with a deep dive into our economic forecasts for Europe, unpacking the key assumptions and highlighting the downgrades made since Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President. They examine the role
China’s Back Door Through Mexico—A Gateway or a Wall?
Steve and Stefan discuss with their colleague Jesse Rogers the complex role of China in the Mexican economy and in Mexico’s exports to the U.S. Jesse shares his research showing China’s important role in Mexico’s domestic economy, particularly for autos, transportation and other infrastructure-related goods. But China plays less of a part in Mexico’s U.S.-bound export trade, unlike, say, in Vietna
It's No Big Deal!
Gaurav, Barbara and Kamil welcome David Muir as they discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the potential economic benefits of the three trade deals recently signed by the U.K. government. While the U.K.-U.S. deal looks quite narrow, the trade agreement with India is much broader in scope and might yield some long-term benefits. Crucially, the EU-U.K. deal isn’t a game changer—but it does repre
Tariff - fying
Hot on the heels of the U.S.-China tariff truce, the team chat about all things trade. The episode kicks off with a trip down memory lane, as Steve tries to place the current chaos in the history of economic moments-in-time. Harry then gives the lay of the land following the weekend’s negotiations, and Katrina and Stefan explore signs of rerouting in the latest export data from China.
Questions o
Two Deals and a Conflict
Gaurav and the team discuss the newly signed U.S.-U.K. trade deal and whether the de-escalation in global trade tensions will continue. The conversation then turns to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Andrew is skeptical that the recent U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal will bring a lasting ceasefire any closer, Gaurav and Barbara take stock of Europe’s energy security, while Kamil weighs in on the economic a
Down Under Deep Dive
With the Australian election upon us, David Robertson, Chief Economist at Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, joins the team to discuss the outlook. Productivity is front of mind, having languished for the last few years amid only timid economic reforms; a clear-cut election victory could provide the political capital to change that. Elsewhere, the RBA’s priorities are shifting from taming inflation to sup
The Return of the Tax Man
David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for a deep dive into the UK. The conversation takes a fiscal turn very quickly as the three dissect public finances and ponder the potential for tax rises in coming years. Trump tariffs add to the problem as the UK will not be able to rely on tailwinds from the global economy. The possibility of meeting Labour’s manifesto pledge of achieving the fastest rate of
The Global Trade War Takes a Dark Turn
This bonus episode is a recent webinar led by our Chief Economist, Mark Zandi. It includes many colleagues on the Moody’s Analytics economics team from around the world. The webinar reviews the many U.S. and global ramifications of the emerging U.S. tariff policy. This conversation features expert input from leading economists, including Mark Zandi, Cris deRitis, Steve Cochrane, Gaurav Ganguly, Ma
Many Shades of Gray: Asia faces much uncertainty under shifting U.S. trade policy
Steve and Stefan speak one-on-one about their expectations as trade negotiations ramp up between the U.S. and many of its Asia-Pacific trading partners. So far, however, the U.S. and China are not on speaking terms; Asian financial markets have stumbled, and currencies of Asia’s developing economies have depreciated against the dollar. There is much uncertainty about the near term, but Steve and S
Tariffs, Deals and More EU Bazookas
Against a rapidly evolving policy backdrop, Gaurav and the team attempt to unpack the implications of the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariffs on the European economy. Kamil sets out why the hit to euro zone growth from the initially announced tariffs could be bad, but not necessarily catastrophic. But regardless of the exact path of U.S. tariffs, the team agrees that the lasting impact on confidence and
First Thoughts on Liberation Day Tariffs
The Moody’s Analytics team welcomed their colleague and fellow economist Sarah Tan to share their thoughts on the so-called Liberation Day tariffs only hours after they were announced. Tariffs are broader and more aggressive than anticipated, with Asia’s export-dependent economies in the firing line. Steve led with his usual optimism, but Katrina and Sarah persuaded that Beijing’s stimulus would b
The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
As the European economy faces yet another turbulent period, Gaurav Ganguly hosts Andrew Hunter, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, and Kamil Kovar in a riveting discussion on the cyclical and structural issues confronting the continent and whether it can overcome these obstacles. The team delves into the recurring crises that Europe has faced, from the pandemic to the invasion of Ukraine, and how these even
Deep Dive into Latin America – Tariffs, Oil and Milei
Moody’s Analytics economists Gaurav Ganguly and Steve Cochrane welcomed their colleagues Alfredo Coutino, Juan Pablo Fuentes and Jesse Rogers for a review of the Latin American economy. The conversation provides a general economic overview and a more in-depth analysis of the three largest economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. They discussed the economic outlook, potential risks, the role of Chi
