US Economy with Fexingo: American GDP, Federal Spending, and Domestic Markets
US Economy with Fexingo is a daily podcast hosted by Lucas and Luna that examines the latest U.S. economic data and market signals. Each episode starts with one key figure—such as a GDP revision, jobless claims, or a yield curve spread—and traces its effects on consumer spending, business investment, and fiscal policy. The hosts ask how data is collected and revised, while also exploring real-world consequences for industries, regional bank lending, and the labor market. They avoid political spin and focus on structural shifts like semiconductor reshoring, student debt repayments, and services versus manufacturing trends. Episodes close with an open question about the neutral rate, Treasury deficits, and private investment.
Episodes
The US Economy's Hidden Debt Trap in 2026
With the ten-year Treasury yield hovering near five point two percent and nominal GDP hitting thirty-two trillion dollars, the US faces a unique fiscal pressure. We examine how rising interest costs on public debt are crowding out private investment and squeezing household budgets. This episode breaks down the math behind the IMF’s warning about disorderly spikes and explains why current inflation
The Productivity Mirage in American GDP Growth
We examine why America's real GDP growth slowed to two point two percent annualized in the second quarter while core PCE inflation remains sticky at one point three percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between headline economic expansion and the quiet squeeze on household budgets, exploring whether the productivity gains promised by artificial intelligence are actually showing up in cor
The American Consumer Is Running Out of Gas
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the widening gap between steady headline GDP growth and the crumbling reality of American household balance sheets. With nominal GDP hitting thirty-two point five trillion dollars but credit card delinquencies flashing warnings not seen since the Great Recession, we explore how the consumer is sustaining itself through debt rather than income. We break down
The Household Debt Trap in America's Economy
With nominal GDP hitting thirty-two trillion five hundred sixty-three billion dollars and unemployment ticking up to four point two percent, the American consumer is facing a silent crisis. Lucas and Luna dissect how rising household debt levels, now flashing warning signals not seen since the Great Recession, are reshaping domestic markets. They explore why core CPI remains sticky at three hundre
The Tariff Inflation Surprise
Lucas and Luna examine the New York Fed’s recent finding that tariff-driven price hikes are reshaping consumer costs in late 2026. With core CPI holding at 337.8 and unemployment ticking to 4.2 percent, they explore how import taxes create a silent squeeze on household budgets that traditional monetary policy struggles to address. The conversation drills into why inflation expectations are rising
The Federal Reserve's Quiet Rate Trap
With the Fed Funds rate sitting at three point seventy-five percent and unemployment ticking up to four point two percent, the US economy is hitting a structural wall. Lucas and Luna dissect how the lagging effect of monetary policy is squeezing domestic markets just as inflation expectations rise. They analyze the disconnect between nominal GDP growth and real household purchasing power, explorin
The Productivity Mirage in American GDP Growth
Real GDP growth slowed to two point two percent annualized in the second quarter while job openings plummeted and unemployment ticked up. We drill into why this divergence between headline growth and labor market health is happening, exploring whether we are seeing a genuine efficiency boom or just a statistical mirage where companies cut costs without creating real value.
#FexingoBusiness #Busin
The Productivity Mirage in American GDP Growth
Real US GDP growth has cooled to two point two percent annualized, yet the headline numbers still look robust. We dig into the September labor market squeeze where unemployment ticked up to four point two percent and job openings fell sharply. Is this a genuine slowdown or just a measurement lag? Lucas and Luna break down why the disconnect between output and employment matters for your portfolio
The September Labor Market Squeeze
Lucas and Luna dig into the contradiction between softening headline job growth and resilient underlying hiring. With the unemployment rate ticking to four point two percent and only twenty-nine thousand net new jobs added in September, the economy is signaling a shift. They explore how private sector strength masks broader labor market cooling, why men are losing ground, and what this means for F
The Productivity Mirage in American GDP Growth
With real GDP growth slowing to two point two percent in the second quarter of twenty twenty-six, many Americans are feeling the squeeze despite headline numbers. This episode examines why corporate profits and tech efficiency aren't translating into wage growth for the average worker. Lucas and Luna dig into the divergence between macroeconomic output and microeconomic reality, using September's
The September Labor Market Squeeze
On this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dissect the stark divergence in the latest American labor data. With nonfarm payrolls rising by just twenty-nine thousand in September while job openings dropped to seven thousand zero seventy-nine, the economy is signaling a sharp deceleration. They analyze how the unemployment rate ticked up to four point two percent despite strong priva
The Quiet Death of the American Dollar
Lucas and Luna examine how persistent core inflation is quietly eroding the purchasing power of the US dollar, even as nominal GDP hits new highs. With the CPI sitting at 334.1 in August 2026 and real GDP growth slowing to two point two percent, they explore why your paycheck feels heavier but buys less. The conversation dives into the gap between headline numbers and household reality, focusing o
The Real Cost of America's Trade War with China
As the S&P 500 dips and Treasury yields climb toward five point three percent, we look past the headlines to see how shifting trade dynamics are quietly reshaping American supply chains. With industrial profits in China expanding at their weakest pace this year and US orders surging ahead of diplomatic summits, businesses are facing a new reality of fragmented global commerce. We break down what t
The Yield Curve Rebellion in Late 2026
With the ten-year Treasury yield hitting 5.26 percent and bond yields breaking the Fed's grip, we explore why the bond market is rebelling against current monetary policy. Lucas and Luna dissect the disconnect between the Federal Reserve’s steady 3.63 percent target rate and the soaring long-end yields that are reshaping corporate borrowing costs and consumer mortgages. We look at the data from Se
The Bond Market Rebellion Against Fed Policy
Lucas and Luna dissect why rising Treasury yields are creating a new, independent constraint on Federal Reserve policy. With the ten-year yield climbing above five percent while inflation remains sticky, the traditional transmission mechanism is breaking down. They examine how global debt levels and domestic fiscal spending are forcing the Fed to navigate a market that no longer waits for its next
The Silent Squeeze of US Household Budgets
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing toward five percent and real GDP growth slowing to one point five percent, American households are facing a unique financial pressure cooker. In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, we dissect how rising borrowing costs are colliding with sticky services inflation to erode disposable income faster than official wage data suggests. We look at the specif
Why US Debt Is Breaking Global Markets
With global debt hitting three hundred sixty-five trillion dollars and US Treasury yields climbing to five point eighteen percent, the old playbook for managing sovereign risk is failing. Lucas and Luna examine how this record-level leverage creates a vicious cycle that threatens to destabilize domestic markets and force the Federal Reserve into an impossible position between fighting inflation an
Why Bond Yields Are Breaking the Fed Grip
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing past five percent in late September 2026, the Federal Reserve faces a structural constraint that policy rate cuts cannot easily solve. Lucas and Luna dissect how rising long-end borrowing costs are effectively tightening financial conditions even as the central bank holds steady at three point six percent. They examine the disconnect between short-term pol
Why Bond Yields Are Breaking the Fed's Grip
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing past five percent and real GDP growth slowing to one point five percent, the Federal Reserve faces a structural headwind that recent rate cuts cannot solve. We examine how bond market rebellion is tightening financial conditions despite official policy easing, and what this divergence means for American households and corporate investment in late twenty tw
The Bond Market Rebellion Against Fed Policy
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing past five percent while the Federal Reserve holds rates steady, a structural disconnect is forming between short-term policy and long-term capital markets. Lucas and Luna explore why bond investors are pricing in persistent inflation risks despite stable headline CPI data, examining the widening spread between nominal GDP growth and real output. They analy
The Hidden Cost of America's Trade War with Canada
While August payrolls surprised to the upside and consumer sentiment remains weak, a quieter crisis is emerging in the logistics sector. With transport companies sounding alarms on fuel prices and supply chain bottlenecks tightening, we examine how trade frictions with Canada are silently inflating costs for American businesses. We look at the specific mechanics of border delays, the impact on dom
The Hidden Cost of America's Trade War with Canada
We drill into the quiet friction between US and Canadian trade, focusing on how recent border policies are reshaping supply chains for American manufacturers. With nominal GDP hitting 32.5 trillion dollars in early 2026 but real growth slowing to 1.5 percent, we ask who is actually paying the price. We look at the logistics data from August, where job openings rose despite steady payrolls, and exa
The Happiness Gap in the American Economy
Despite solid GDP growth and low unemployment, American consumer sentiment is hitting record lows. We examine why Goldman Sachs points to a 'lower happiness' metric as the real story, exploring the disconnect between economic indicators like CPI and daily life costs. From housing affordability to service price stickiness, we drill into the psychological premium Americans are paying for basic goods
The Happiness Gap in the US Economy
Lucas and Luna tackle the disconnect between strong US economic data and plummeting consumer sentiment. With nominal GDP hitting $32.5 trillion but happiness surveys dropping, we explore Goldman Sachs' theory of 'lower happiness.' We examine how rising transport costs and interest rates create a psychological drag that traditional metrics like CPI and unemployment miss. This episode digs into why
How the US Economy Is Actually Growing Right Now
Real GDP growth stalled at 1.5 percent annualized in Q2, yet nonfarm payrolls surged and the dollar stayed strong. We break down why nominal GDP hit $32.4 trillion while consumers face a $1,700 inflation shock from energy prices. The divergence between headline growth and household reality is where the real story lies.
#USGDP #FederalReserve #InflationData #NonfarmPayrolls #PCEPriceIndex #Economi
The Real Cost of August Inflation on American Wages
We drill into the disconnect between August payrolls and household purchasing power. With nominal GDP at thirty two trillion four hundred eighty six billion dollars but real growth slowing to one point five percent, we examine why core CPI holding near three hundred thirty eight means your paycheck feels thinner even as job openings rise to seven million two hundred seventy one thousand. The truth
The $1700 Household Tax Hidden in American Gas Prices
With oil prices spiking due to geopolitical tensions, the estimated cost per US household has hit $1,700. We break down how this shock ripples through transport costs, core PCE inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s dilemma as real GDP growth slows to one point five percent. Is this a temporary blip or a structural shift in late 2026?
#FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsNews #USGDP #Inflati
The Services Trap Locking Inflation in Late 2026
August’s core CPI came in at 337.8, proving that goods inflation is dead but services prices are stubbornly sticky. With the Fed Funds rate holding at 3.63 percent and average hourly earnings rising to thirty-seven dollars and eighty cents, Lucas and Luna break down why the traditional labor-market cooling model isn’t working as expected. They examine the specific mechanics of service-sector prici
Why American Paychecks Feel Stuck in Late 2026
Real GDP growth has slowed to one point five percent while core CPI remains elevated at three hundred thirty-seven.8, creating a painful divergence between macroeconomic stability and household financial reality. We break down how the August nonfarm payroll surprise of over one hundred fifty-nine thousand jobs masks a deeper wage-price gap where inflation is still outpacing average hourly earnings
The Wage Inflation Gap Squeezing American Paychecks
Inflation is outpacing wage growth again, creating a squeeze on American households that defies the narrative of soft landings. We break down why August CPI data and core PCE figures suggest price stickiness in services is still winning, even as job openings rise. Lucas and Luna examine the real cost of this divergence, using specific numbers to show where purchasing power is eroding. This isn't j
The Real Cost of August Inflation on American Wages
August consumer prices rose more than wages did, squeezing household purchasing power just as the Federal Reserve holds rates steady. Lucas and Luna break down the divergence between core CPI and average hourly earnings to show why the inflation story is shifting from goods to services. They explore how this gap impacts consumer confidence and what it means for the next quarter's economic data.
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Why American Payrolls Are Surprising Everyone
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the paradox of late-2026 US economics: a labor market that refuses to cool despite persistent services inflation. With August nonfarm payrolls adding over one hundred fifty thousand jobs and job openings rising to seventy-two hundred and seventy-one thousand, the traditional Fed model is breaking down. They analyze how sticky wages in hospitality and healthc
The Inflation Surprise That Changed Everything
With the S&P 500 dropping two percent and ten-year yields climbing near five percent, investors are grappling with a stubborn inflation narrative. We examine how the July CPI print of 332.8 and core PCE at 130.7 suggest prices aren't cooling as fast as hoped. Lucas and Luna break down why wholesale prices rose 0.4 percent in August, what it means for the Fed's next move, and whether the labor mark
The Hidden Cost of America's Trade War with Canada
As the U.S. and Canada escalate a trade war with new tariffs on billions in goods, we look at how this specific conflict is reshaping supply chains and consumer prices right now. With the S&P 500 dipping and the ten-year Treasury yield climbing, we examine whether these retaliatory measures will stick or if they will backfire on American manufacturers who rely on seamless cross-border integration.
The Services Inflation Trap That Never Ends
With core PCE prices stubbornly rising in late 2026, Lucas and Luna explore why the services sector remains immune to typical disinflation. They examine how wage growth in healthcare and housing is creating a persistent price spiral, defying expectations of a quick return to two percent inflation targets.
#FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Inflation #ServicesSector #CorePCE #WageGrowth
Why American Payrolls Are Surprising Everyone
With the S&P 500 hovering near seven thousand seven hundred and unemployment holding steady at four point one percent, the US labor market is sending mixed signals. In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, we unpack the August payrolls report that beat expectations by adding one hundred sixty-two thousand jobs. We look past the headline number to find out why women accounted for almost all the
The Services Inflation Trap in Late 2026
With real GDP growth slowing to one point five percent and unemployment holding at four point one percent, the US economy is stuck in a stubborn middle ground. This episode examines why services prices remain sticky even as goods inflation cools, focusing on the wage dynamics driving core CPI to three thirty six point eight. We explore how private security spending, women-led job gains, and the sh
The Wage Price Spiral That Never Was
We look at the stubborn persistence of US services inflation despite a cooling labor market. With core CPI holding near 336.8 and job openings rising to 7,271,000 in July, the classic wage-price spiral theory is failing. We examine why sticky wages in healthcare and leisure are keeping prices elevated even as overall growth slows to 1.5 percent annualized. It’s not about overheating; it’s about st
The Women-Driven Jobs Boom in August
August payrolls jumped by one hundred sixty-two thousand jobs, far exceeding forecasts, yet the unemployment rate held steady at four point one percent. The headline number hides a deeper structural shift: women accounted for nearly all of this month’s labor force gains. Lucas and Luna unpack why this gender-divergent recovery is happening right now, looking at the resilience of healthcare, hospit
Why US Services Prices Are Stuck in Late 2026
The headline inflation number is cooling, but look closer at the Core PCE price index and services sector data from July 2026. While goods prices stabilize, shelter and healthcare costs remain stubbornly high, keeping core inflation above target. Lucas and Luna dissect why the Federal Reserve’s traditional tools are losing grip on service-sector wages, and what a forty-point-one percent unemployme
The Sticky Wage Trap in US Services
We examine why core inflation remains stubborn despite cooling headline numbers, focusing on the divergence between goods prices and service-sector wages. With August private payrolls coming in at just thirty-eight thousand and the unemployment rate ticking down to four point one percent, we analyze how labor tightness in healthcare, hospitality, and professional services is keeping a floor under
The Wage Price Spiral That Never Happened
In mid-2026, the labor market looks deceptively calm. Unemployment sits at four point one percent, nonfarm payrolls are steady, yet core inflation refuses to break below three percent. Why aren't wages driving prices up anymore? We examine the disconnect between sticky service costs and cooling goods demand, using July CPI data and recent job opening trends to explain why the classic wage-price sp
Why the 30-Year Treasury Is Making a Comeback
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the quiet resurgence of the 30-year Treasury. With the long bond yielding around 5.25 percent as of late August 2026, the conversation explores what's driving this shift: from the Treasury's increased reliance on long-duration debt to fund a growing deficit, to pension funds and insurers hunting for yield, to the Fed's shrinking
The Yield Curve Inversion That Isn't
The yield curve has been steepening since early August, but this time it's not because long-term yields are surging. Instead, short-term rates are falling faster than the long end, a pattern that historically has preceded Fed easing. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the move, why the market is pricing in rate cuts despite sticky core inflation, and why the yield curve is now a
The Yield Curve Is Pitching a Tent Again
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.72 percent while the 2-year sits at 3.73 percent, and the gap between them has widened to nearly a full percentage point. That's the steepest positive yield curve in years, and it's sending a message about where the US economy is headed. Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the move: the Fed's reluctance to cut, the Treasury's massive supply of long-
The Quiet Return of the 30-Year Treasury
The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.21 percent, the highest in over two decades, while the Fed funds rate sits at 3.63 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into why the long bond is suddenly the center of the market's attention, what the widening gap between short and long rates says about inflation expectations, and how the Treasury's debt management strategy is amplifying the move. The
Why the Fed Funds Rate Is No Longer the Story
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore the quiet transformation of the US Treasury market's hidden lever: the Treasury General Account. As the Fed keeps rates steady at 3.63 percent and core PCE inflation runs hot at 3.3 percent, the TGA has become a $1 trillion elephant in the room. Lucas breaks down why the Treasury's cash balance—not the fed funds rate—is now the bon
Why the Treasury General Account Is Now the Bond Market's Lever
The US Treasury is sitting on a nearly $1 trillion checking account, and Washington's plan to spend that cash on bond buybacks is reshaping how the bond market thinks about the government's debt. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the Treasury General Account, the mechanics of the buyback program, and why critics like Stanley Druckenmiller are skeptical. They look at what the near-$1 trillio
The Treasury General Account Buyback Funding Question
In episode 167 of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the Treasury General Account, the government's cash buffer that's become the center of a bond-buyback funding debate. With the federal deficit spiking and the debt crossing $40 trillion, Treasury Secretary Bessent is reportedly eyeing the TGA's near-$1 trillion balance to fund buybacks. Lucas explains what the TGA actually is, how
Why the Fed Funds Rate Is No Longer the Story
In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack a striking shift in the US economy: the Fed has held rates steady, but the long end of the bond market is doing the heavy lifting. They explain why ten-year Treasury yields are hovering near their highs, how the Treasury's buyback program is meant to calm things down, and why the yield curve steepening is now more about term premiums than policy expectations.
Treasury Buybacks and the $40 Trillion Debt
The US government just crossed the $40 trillion debt milestone, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying something new to manage it: buybacks. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what Treasury buybacks are, why Bessent is using them now, and whether they can actually stabilize a market that's starting to worry about inflation and deficits. They dig into the $4 billion operation, the r
The Treasury Buyback Gambit Explained
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's bond buyback program was meant to calm markets, but it's stirring inflation worries instead. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the mechanics of the buybacks, why they've failed to ease long-term yields, and what they mean for the federal deficit and the Fed's rate path. They also look at the $40 trillion debt milestone and whether Bessent's claim that the
Treasury Buybacks and the $40 Trillion Debt
The US national debt has just passed $40 trillion, doubling in a decade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying something new: buybacks of older, less-liquid bonds. This episode digs into what Treasury buybacks actually do, why the first operation only touched $4 billion, and whether it can calm a bond market that's increasingly nervous about the deficit. We also look at the yield curve, where
The $40 Trillion Debt Milestone Is Here
The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion for the first time, doubling in just a decade. Lucas and Luna break down what that number actually means for the economy, the budget, and everyday Americans. They explain why the debt-to-GDP ratio matters more than the raw figure, how interest costs are eating into federal spending, and whether Treasury Secretary Bessent's claim that the deficit has
Why the Bond Market Is Now Pricing a Higher Long-Term Fed Rate
The Federal Reserve has held its policy rate near 3.65 percent, but the bond market is sending a different message. The ten-year Treasury yield sits at 4.65 percent, and the five-year is at 4.35, with the spread to the fed funds rate the widest in years. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore what that term premium says about long-run inflation, deficits, and the Fed's credibility. They dig into
How the Fed Funds Rate Is Now a Footnote for Home Buyers
Episode 160 of US Economy with Fexingo looks at a quiet shift: the federal funds rate has become a footnote for many American home buyers. Lucas and Luna explain how the rise of all-cash purchases and adjustable-rate mortgages tied to SOFR has loosened the traditional link between Fed policy and mortgage rates. With the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and the 30-year mortgage near 6.5 percent
Why the Federal Deficit Is Spiking in Summer 2026
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest federal budget data, which shows the deficit surging to its highest level since March 2021. They break down the two main drivers: interest payments on the national debt, now exceeding $1 trillion annually, and the cost of the renewed student loan repayment program. Lucas explains how the deficit is growing even as tax receipts remain strong, and
Why Real GDP Growth Is Slowing While Nominal GDP Accelerates
On this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into why real GDP growth dropped to 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 even as nominal GDP climbed to $32.5 trillion. They explain the widening gap between the two measures, what it signals about inflation and productivity, and why the Fed should care more about real growth than the headlines suggest. With consumer spending cool
Why July CPI Cooled but Core Prices Stayed Sticky
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the July CPI report, which showed headline inflation cooling to 2.7 percent while core CPI held at 3.2 percent. They explain why the gap between headline and core matters for the Fed's next move, how shelter costs and used car prices are behaving, and what the flat wholesale price reading signals for future consumer prices. With t
Why US Job Openings Are Falling Without a Hiring Freeze
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into one of the most puzzling labor market trends of 2026: job openings are dropping steadily — down to 7.36 million in June — yet layoffs remain low and the unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.1 percent. What's going on? They explore the rise of 'quiet quitting' by employers: firms pulling job postings, tightening hiring criteria, and relying on interna
How the Budget Deficit Is Back With a Vengeance
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the July budget deficit, which surged to its highest level since March 2021. They unpack the numbers behind the deficit — spending up, revenues down — and what that means for the Fed, the Treasury market, and your portfolio. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.64 percent and the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent, the fisca
Why the Deficit Is Back With a Vengeance in 2026
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the July budget numbers that just came out — the deficit hit its highest level since March 2021. They break down what's driving the surge, from interest costs on the national debt to spending patterns, and why it's not necessarily the crisis the headlines suggest. They also connect the deficit to the latest CPI print, which came i
US Consumers Are Restocking Their Savings as Paychecks Slow
On this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, hosts Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising trend: despite a soft July jobs report and cooling wage growth, the personal saving rate is climbing back toward pre-pandemic levels. They unpack the latest data — nonfarm payrolls dipped by 23,000, yet average hourly earnings are holding near $37.60 — and explain why households are choosing to rebuild their rai
The US Job Market Is Losing Its Momentum
The July jobs report caught everyone off guard, with a loss of 23,000 jobs and an unemployment rate that ticked down to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what's really happening beneath that headline: the mixed signals from ADP and JOLTS, the tension between a cooling labor market and resilient productivity, and why the Fed's next move is getting harder to call. They break down the numbers that
How a Soft Jobs Report Could Hide a Stronger Economy
The July jobs report showed a surprise loss of 23,000 jobs, but Lucas and Luna dive into why that headline might be misleading. They unpack the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent, the slowdown in job openings, and what the yield curve's recent steepening suggests about the second half of 2026. With the Fed holding rates and inflation cooling, they explore whether the labor market is trul
The July Jobs Report Slump Explained
The July jobs report took a surprising turn: the US economy lost 23,000 jobs, snapping a long streak of gains. Lucas and Luna unpack the numbers, from the unemployment dip to 4.1 percent to the slowdown in job openings, and explore whether this is a blip or the start of a cooling trend. They look at what the ADP private payrolls figure of 44,000 signals, how the bond market is reacting, and what i
Why the US Jobs Market Just Hit a Wall in July 2026
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprise July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs and a private payroll gain of just 44,000. They explore what's behind the slowdown, from a cooling labor market to tariff-driven uncertainty, and why the unemployment rate still fell to 4.1 percent. They also examine the mixed signals from job openings and jobless claims, and what it means fo
Why US Productivity Growth Is Accelerating in 2026
Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising pickup in US productivity growth in 2026, with real GDP per hour up over 2 percent year-over-year despite headwinds from tariffs and a slower economy. They explore how AI adoption, remote work, and a tight labor market are driving efficiency gains, and what it means for corporate profits, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The conversation touches on rec
Why the Yield Curve Steepening Is a Double-Edged Sword
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the current steepening of the US yield curve, a signal that has markets buzzing. With the ten-year Treasury at 4.62 percent and the two-year at 3.72 percent, the gap is the widest in over a decade. But contrary to popular belief, a steepening curve doesn't always herald recession. Lucas explains how this time it reflects both strong growth expectations and a
How the Fed Is Stuck Between Tariffs and a Cooling Labor Market
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the Federal Reserve's latest conundrum: inflation is cooling, but a key manufacturing survey shows price pressures 'worse than pandemic era,' while the labor market is softening. They unpack the June core CPI reading of 3.3 percent, the drop in job openings to 7.4 million, and what a divided Fed under Warsh means for rate policy.
Why the US Economy Is Cooling Without Breaking
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a peculiar moment for the US economy: real GDP growth just slowed to 1.5 percent, yet the labor market is still adding jobs and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent. With the Fed holding rates steady and inflation creeping lower, is the US headed for a soft landing or something more complicated? The hosts explore what the recent JOLTS data and j
Why the Fed Is Holding Rates as Inflation Cools
The Federal Reserve is caught between cooling inflation and a slowing economy, with the federal funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and real GDP growth falling to 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the Fed's latest policy dilemma: why core inflation at 3.3 percent is still above target, why the Fed isn't cutting rates despite the slowdown, and what the r
Why the Fed Holds Rates as Growth Slows
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling snapshot of the US economy from mid-2026: real GDP growth has cooled to just 1.5 percent annualized, yet the Federal Reserve is holding the federal funds rate at 3.63 percent. They unpack the logic behind the central bank's patience, pointing to core PCE inflation that's still running at 3.3 percent—well above the 2 percent target—and a labor mar
Why the Federal Reserve Is Divided in July 2026
US GDP growth slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026, while core inflation remains above 3%. The Federal Reserve is caught between hawks worried about sticky prices and doves concerned about a cooling economy. This episode explores the internal divide at the Fed, what Fed watchers like Kevin Warsh are looking for in official statements, and how the split impacts bond markets and investor exp
Why the US Economy Is Reaccelerating in 2026
The US economy grew at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, a sharp acceleration from the near-stall of late 2025. Lucas and Luna dig into what's driving this rebound — from a resilient labor market to business investment — and why the Fed is now deeply divided on whether to cut rates. With unemployment at 4.2 percent, jobless claims at 187,000, and inflation expectations ti
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening in 2026
The US yield curve has steepened sharply in recent weeks, with the 2-year Treasury yield falling faster than the 10-year. Lucas and Luna break down what this bond market signal means for GDP growth, Fed policy, and the risk of recession. They tie the steepening to the Q1 2026 rebound in real GDP growth to 2.1%, the tight labor market with unemployment at 4.2%, and falling inflation expectations. L
The Yield Curve Uninverted Now What for Recession Risk
The yield curve is no longer inverted — the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries is positive for the first time in over two years. But history suggests a positive curve often appears just before a recession, not after one. Lucas and Luna dig into the data: real GDP is growing at 2.1%, unemployment is 4.2%, and jobless claims hit 187,000 — a tight labor market. So why does the bond market s
Why US Jobless Claims Just Hit 187,000 and What It Means
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into one of the most eye-popping numbers of 2026: initial jobless claims just fell to 187,000, the lowest level in decades. They explore why the labor market remains so tight despite tariff uncertainty, sticky inflation, and a Fed holding rates at 3.63%. Then they connect that strength to a clear split in the stock market: the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 52
Why Inflation Looks Different in CPI vs PCE Data
In June 2026, headline CPI fell slightly to 332.6, but the Fed's preferred PCE gauge ticked up to 131.5. This divergence matters because the Fed targets PCE, not CPI, for its 2% goal. Lucas and Luna break down the measurement differences—how CPI weights housing more heavily, while PCE captures substitution effects and broader consumption patterns. They discuss why services inflation keeps core PCE
The Yield Curve Uninverts What It Means for the Economy in 2026
The US Treasury yield curve has normalized for the first time since 2022, with the 10-year yielding 4.65% and the 2-year at 4.40%. Hosts Lucas and Luna explore what this uninversion signals for recession fears, GDP growth, and the labor market. They connect the bond market shift to the Fed's rate policy, the strength in jobless claims at 187,000, and the 2.1% GDP growth. Does history's recession s
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