Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, provides analysis of global economic, energy, and agricultural trends. The podcast offers data-driven insights for producers, traders, and businesses to manage risk and navigate market volatility. Episodes cover macroeconomic developments, crop fundamentals, and commodity market movements.
Episodes
Markets Are Selling Off. Are the Fundamentals Really Changing?
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why commodity markets are selling off despite ongoing geopolitical risks, and why the long-term fundamentals may tell a different story.In this July 27 update, Arlan covers:Why crude oil, grain, and oilseed markets moved sharply lowerHow algorithmic trading is driving today's market actionThe latest developments in the Strait of Hormu
Two Wars Are Reshaping Commodity Markets | Hormuz, Black Sea & Grain Outlook
How are two global conflicts reshaping commodity markets?In this StoneX Market Intelligence update, Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman explains how escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea are impacting energy, grain, and global trade.In this update, Arlan covers:The latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on crude oil and shippingUkraine's attacks
Ukraine Escalates. Why Wheat Markets Are Waking Up
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why wheat markets rallied ahead of USDA's report—and why renewed conflict in the Black Sea may be the bigger story for commodity markets.In this July 10 update, Arlan covers:Why wheat prices surged despite a generally favorable U.S. weather outlookHow Ukraine's attacks in the Sea of Azov are disrupting Russian exportsWhy the Kerch Str
Hormuz Tensions Rise Again. Will Commodity Markets React?
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz aren't triggering panic in commodity markets—and what traders should be watching instead.In this July 9 update, Arlan covers:Why Iran's latest attacks on commercial ships have disrupted traffic through the Strait of HormuzHow the U.S. response is changing the security outlook in the regionWh
After a Tough June, Grain Markets Face Three Big Tests
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, looks back on a difficult month for commodity markets and explains the three key factors that will determine where grain and oilseed prices go next.In this June 26 update, Arlan covers:Why 23 of 27 major commodities declined during JuneHow changing market sentiment has shifted money out of commoditiesWhy the Strait of Hormuz remains a wildcard
China Soybean Rumors Return as Markets Rebound | Is Demand Finally Showing Up?
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why grain and oilseed markets found support this week and what recent soybean sales may reveal about global demand.In this June 17 update, Arlan covers:Why grain and oilseed markets rebounded after heavy selling pressureThe latest rumors surrounding potential Chinese soybean purchasesWhat USDA's flash soybean sale announcement could m
Iran Peace Deal Sends Commodities Lower. Is the Market Missing the Real Risk?
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the newly announced Iran agreement and explains why commodity markets may be underestimating the long-term risks facing energy, fertilizer, and agricultural markets.In this June 15 update, Arlan covers:What the Iran agreement actually does — and does not — accomplishWhy equity markets are rallying while commodities sell offThe chal
WASDE Aftermath & Iran Talks: What Markets Are Watching
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the key takeaways from USDA's June WASDE report and explains why a potential Iran ceasefire may not eliminate commodity market risk anytime soon.In this June 12 update, Arlan covers:What mattered most in USDA's June WASDE reportWhy soybean crush demand continues to exceed expectationsThe outlook for corn exports and ethanol demandH
Ideal Weather, Weak Prices, and a Key WASDE Report Ahead
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, previews the June WASDE report and explains why grain and oilseed markets may be at a critical turning point after weeks of heavy fund liquidation.In this June 10 update, Arlan covers:What to expect from USDA's June WASDE reportWhy significant changes to corn and soybean yields are unlikelyThe surprising deterioration in winter wheat crop rati
China Holds the Key to Soybean Prices | Will 25 Million Tons Materialize?
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, takes a deep dive into the U.S. soybean balance sheet and explains why China's purchasing decisions may have a bigger impact on soybean prices than weather this summer.In this June 3 update, Arlan covers:Why soybean futures have come under pressure despite strong crush demandWhat current crop ratings are signaling about the 2026 soybean cropHo
Trump Lays Out Iran Peace Terms. Commodity Markets Brace for Impact
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest developments in the Middle East after President Trump released what appears to be a final set of demands for Iran — and explains why commodity markets reacted immediately.In this May 29 update, Arlan covers:Whether Trump's latest statement represents a peace agreement or an ultimatumWhy crude oil, grain, and oilseed mark
Iran Negotiations Pressure Oil, Grain & Soybean Markets
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down why commodity markets sold off sharply on optimism surrounding Iran negotiations, and why significant risks may still remain ahead. In this May 26 update, Arlan covers:Why markets reacted to reports that the U.S. and Iran are “95%” toward a dealThe critical final issues still preventing a true agreementWhy the Strait of Hormuz rema
Corn, Soybeans & Wheat Rally After White House China Announcement
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest White House announcement on U.S.-China trade negotiations — and why grain and oilseed markets reacted sharply higher to start the week.In this May 18 update, Arlan covers:What the alleged new China ag purchase agreement includesWhy soybean markets rallied overnightThe significance of the proposed $17B in additional U.S.
Grain Markets Slide Despite Bullish USDA Report, China Talks & Inflation Risks
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why grain and oilseed markets are under pressure despite bullish supply fundamentals, tightening global inventories, and ongoing inflation concerns. In this May 15 update, Arlan covers:- Why investor money flow and market sentiment are overriding traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals- How computerized trading and headline-driven
Big Week for Commodities: Iran War, China Deal & USDA WASDE Could Move Markets
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, outlines why this is a pivotal week for commodities — with the Iran conflict, U.S.–China trade negotiations, and the USDA WASDE report all converging to drive market direction.In this May 11 update, Arlan covers:Why the ongoing Iran conflict continues to tighten global energy and fertilizer suppliesHow disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are i
Is the Iran War Nearly Over? Why Supply Risk Still Isn’t Gone
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down signs that the Iran conflict may be nearing an end — and why that does not mean the market risk is over.In this April 17 update, Arlan covers:Why markets are reacting to signs the war may be winding downWhat the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for oil and shipping flowsWhy crude oil, grain, and oilseed markets are reve
Iran Blockade Escalates: What It Means for Oil, Fertilizer & Grain Markets
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the weekend developments in Iran and what the latest U.S. blockade move could mean for commodity markets. In this update, Arlan covers:Why the U.S. blockade marks a major escalation in the Iran conflictWhat a shutdown of Iranian shipping could mean for oil and fertilizer flowsWhy corn and wheat prices are trading above pure supply-
Hormuz Watch: Why the Next 36 Hours Matter for Grain, Energy & Fertilizer
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why the next 36 hours could be critical for grain, energy, and fertilizer markets.In this April 6 update, Arlan covers:Why the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest near-term market driverHow a ceasefire or de-escalation could remove some war premium from commodity marketsWhy further escalation could push energy and fertilizer prices e
War Fears or Crop Facts? What USDA Grain Stocks Really Mean
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest USDA quarterly grain stocks report and explains what is really driving the grain and oilseed markets right now.In this April 1 update, Arlan covers:How war headlines influenced grain and oilseed buyingWhat the March 1 USDA grain stocks data says about corn, soybeans, and wheatWhy corn stocks came in lower than expectedWh
EPA Biofuels Rule Turns Bullish for Soy Oil, Corn & Grain Markets
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down why the EPA’s final biofuels rule could be a major demand driver for feedstocks and ag markets.In this March 30 update, Arlan covers:Why the new EPA biofuels guidelines look bullish for soy oil and feedstock demandWhat the final renewable volume obligations mean for renewable dieselHow energy shortages and the Strait of Hormuz disr
Oil Surges After U.S.–Israel Strike on Iran | Strait of Hormuz Risk & Fertilizer Spike
Geopolitical risk just escalated — and energy and agriculture markets are reacting.Following a coordinated U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, crude oil prices surged as tanker traffic slowed through the Strait of Hormuz — the critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude exports.StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down what this means for:• Crude oil prices and global energy fl
Major Chinese Policy Shift: What it Means for U.S. Exports
Are we witnessing a major shift in China’s agricultural trade policy?In today’s market update, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the overnight headlines following President Trump’s call with China’s President Xi — and the 50‑cent surge in soybean futures that followed.In this episode, Arlan covers:Trump’s request for China to buy an additional 8 million metric tons
45Z Guidelines Hit the Biofuels Market: Big Shifts for Soy Oil, CI Scores & UCO Imports
StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down the new 45Z clean fuel production credit and why carbon intensity (CI) scores now decide value. He details the post‑2025 North America‑only feedstock rule, high-risk status for imported used cooking oil (UCO), and the removal of ILUC—plus what he’s watching next from the EPA on RVOs.What’s inside:45Z is out: Technology‑neutral, CI‑drive
Massive Shake‑Up in China’s Military: Impact on Soybeans, Trade & Markets
In today’s Update From the Trading Floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down a major geopolitical development in China, a sweeping purge inside the Central Military Commission, and what it means for U.S. soybean exports, global commodity flows, and ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations.Arlan explores:China's military leadership purge and why top generals close to Pr
Greenland Fears Ease, Soybean Export Risks Rise
President Trump addressed global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, clarifying that the United States will not invade Greenland—a statement that helped ease market volatility after recent geopolitical fears rattled equities and commodities.In this morning update from the trading floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down:Why Greenland matters strategically
Rare Earth Leverage, Venezuela Moves & Farm Aid Uncertainty | Market Risks to Watch
Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down how rare earth mineral supply chains, geopolitical strategy, and upcoming farm aid negotiations are influencing market sentiment.Arlan explains new White House findings on U.S. dependence on foreign processing, China’s rare earth export restrictions, and why Venezuela’s mineral resources add another layer to global leverage. He also highlights
Political Pressure & Credit Market Headlines: What Commodities Are Watching
Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down how policy decisions, credit-market dynamics, and rising geopolitical tension are shaping commodity markets as the week begins.Coming to you from the trading floor, Arlan discusses renewed calls to cap consumer borrowing rates, why lower credit-card interest may stimulate spending in the short term but increase long‑term economic risk, and how
Will Venezuela Shake Global Markets? China’s Hidden Connection
The U.S. strike on Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro could have ripple effects far beyond Latin America. Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains how China’s investments in Venezuela, the risk of troop deployment, and Taiwan’s flashpoint could reshape global trade and commodity markets.Key Insights:Venezuela’s oil reserves and U.S. sanctionsChina’s strategic footh
Taiwan Showdown: Crisis Averted or Commodity Market Risk Ahead?
Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, for an in-depth look at the latest geopolitical developments and their impact on global commodity markets.Today’s discussion covers:China’s “Justice Mission 2025” military drills around Taiwan—the most intense yetWhy Taiwan remains the flashpoint that could derail U.S.–China trade dealsHistorical parallels with Russia–Ukraine and what the
Ukraine War Escalates | Black Sea Risks & USDA Export Trends
Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, for an in-depth market update from the trading floor. As the war surrounding Ukraine intensifies and attacks on Odessa’s port infrastructure escalate, global commodity flows face growing risks. Arlan covers:Black Sea tensions and the risk to grain and soybean shipmentsHow Russian strikes on Ukraine’s export terminals impact wheat and crud
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