Risky Science Podcast
The Risky Science Podcast features conversations with scientists, insurers, investors, portfolio managers, and others about the evolving science of predicting and modeling risk across both natural and man-made perils.
Episodes
Venezuela, The Built Environment And Lessons of a Catastrophic Earthquake
This week we focus on the tragic catastrophe in Venezuela, where powerful earthquakes tore along the San Sebastián fault and devastated Caracas. As a result, buildings collapsed, the airport shut down, and the death toll climbed.And a fragile country recently facing its own political upheaval was left asking how this could happen on a fault everyone knew was dangerous.My guest is Ziggy Lu
Sticky Liabilities, Illiquid Assets and the Private Credit Perception Gap
A year ago, I sat down with Carmi Margalit, Managing Director and the Life Insurance Sector Lead at Standard & Poor’s Annual Insurance Conference to talk about private credit on insurance balance sheets . So when I caught up with him again this year,I figured it was time for a check-in.And here's the thing that struck me: Carmi says not much has actually changed. The allocations have
2026 Hurricane Season: Risk, Markets, Models
This is the audio recording of our June 11 panel on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season — three people who actually price this risk for a living, in conversation for an hour.The ground they cover: where the cat models miss, how the ILS market is pricing the 2026 season, and how a new prediction-market contract could change what it means to "test" a hurricane model.
Ebola, Statistics, and What Pandemic Science Can Teach Markets
The Democratic Republic of Congo is in the middle of its 17th Ebola outbreak since 1976 and the WHO has declared a public health emergency of international concern. There are no approved vaccines. No approved treatments. Hundreds of suspected cases emerged before the outbreak was even confirmed. And the surveillance infrastructure needed to track it is operating in an active conflict zone
Wildfire's Garbage-In Problem With Brian Bastian
California’s homeowners insurance market, backed by privae capital, is still in retreat. The publicly-backed FAIR Plan is financial buckling. And somewhere in the gap between what the cat models capture and what's actually happening on the ground at the property level, there's a mispricing problem that nobody has fully solved yet.In this episode of The Risky Science Podcast that wraps up
Modeling Every Risk for Every Client with Willis' Ben Fidlow
Ben Fidlow is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and leads analytics and risk advisory at Willis. In this episode, he explains how brokerage modeling differs fundamentally from carrier or vendor modeling — it's about what risk means to a specific client, not an aggregate book. He walks through Willis's expanded partnership with Moody's RMS, which lets his team layer their own clim
The Wrong Model for the Wrong Job With Roy Wright
In this episode of Risky Science, recorded at ClimateTech Connect in April, IBHS CEO Roy Wright breaks down why catastrophe models were never designed to price individual risk, why mitigation only works at the neighborhood level, and why insurance markets start to fail when price signals drift away from underlying risk.
The LA Fires and the Risk Market Value Chain With Joy Chen
The Eaton and Palisades fires are now the most expensive wildfire disaster in U.S. history — and what's happening in Los Angeles right now is a real-time stress test of the entire insurance value chain. From how models priced the risk, to how policies were written and sold, to how claims are being managed on the ground.Joy Chen is a former deputy mayor of Los Angeles with a finance backgr
How Catastrophe Models Work and Where They Fall Short With Anil Vasagiri
This episode is part of a series of live conversations recorded at Climate Tech Connect 2026 in Washington, D.C.Anil Vasagiri, Head of Risk Data Solutions at Swiss Re is a rare combination of technical depth and commercial perspective to catastrophe risk — he came up through Verisk, where he held senior roles in product management and data strategy, before joining Swiss Re in 2020. Since
Why Mixing Catastrophes With Prediction Markets Is More Dangerous Than It Looks With Jamie Pietruska
The LA wildfires burned more than a hundred thousand acres. They destroyed thousands of homes. And while they were still burning, people were placing bets on them.Not insurers. Not reinsurers. Not catastrophe modelers running exceedance probability curves. Anybody with a crypto wallet and an opinion.That's the world of prediction markets — platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where you c
AI, Models, and the Limits of Climate Assumptions with Sarah Kapnick
We sit down with Dr. Sarah Kapnick at Climate Tech Connect in Washington, D.C. in a conversation covers the time-horizon problem at the heart of climate finance, what the PG&E bankruptcy revealed about the gap between credit models and physical risk, and where AI-generated climate insight ends and hallucination begins.Subscribe to Risk Market News
Can Models Still Work When Everything Changes at Once? With Christiane Baumeister
This week I speak with Dr. Christiane Baumeister, a professor at the University of Notre Dame. Her research focuses on global oil market dynamics — disentangling the supply and demand forces that drive prices and developing forecasting models that are designed to perform precisely when markets are most volatile.
(Preview) China's Growing Risk Data Moat and the US Brain Drain With Hui Su
A conversation with Dr. Hui Su, a professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and one of the leading researchers working at the intersection of satellite data, artificial intelligence, and extreme weather forecasting. Become a member of Risk Market News for access to the full member episode.
Confidence as a Service With Eric Winsberg
We speak with Eric Winsberg: a philosopher of science at Cambridge and the University of South Florida, who has thought hard about what happens when models move from the lab into the world and into policy and markets.
(Preview) The $232 Billion Storm No One Is Pricing With Moody's Chris Lafakis
Chris Lafakis and his team did the first analysis to combine Moody's catastrophe modeling infrastructure with a full macroeconomic model. The results are eye opening.This is a preview of the Risky Science Podcast Member Edtion.To get access to the full episode sign up to become a free member of Risk Market News.
How Hurricane Risk Really Gets Priced with Dr. Ben Collier
Dr. Ben Collier, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and his fellow researchers published a recent paper that uses twenty years of Florida data to trace a direct line from cat model revisions to the premiums homeowners actually pay. The finding? A one-dollar increase in modeled expected loss translates to roughly five dollars in higher premiums. That multiplier — and what'
Black Box Problems, Machine Judgment and the Rules Nobody's Written Yet With Daniel Schwarcz
A conversation with Daniel Schwarcz, professor at the University of Minnesota Law School, where he teaches insurance law, contract law, tort law, and financial regulation and his academic work sits at the intersection of AI governance and insurance regulation.
(00:00) - Introduction
(00:17) - Guest background: From P&C attorney to insurance law professor
(02:13) - AI in insurance to
AI Risk, Markets and Modeling the Unknown With Daniel Reti
In this episode of the Risky Science Podcast we are joined by Danie Retil, co-founder of Exona Labs, a startup building AI risk modeling and quantification tools.
Prediction Markets, Parametrics and Rethinking Weather Risk With Dr. Partick Brown
For decades, insurers, reinsurers and energy companies have relied on models, parametrics, and traditional hedges to manage hurricane and weather exposure. But what if markets could continuously price those risks — in real time — and let anyone transfer or hedge them instantly?In this episode I’m joined by Dr. Patrick Brown, Head of Climate Analytics Interactive Brokers to talk about mode
Greenland, Venezuela and the New Political Risk Model Reality with WTW’s Sam Wilkin
In this episode of the podcast, we speak with geopolitical risk expert Samuel Wilkin of Willis Towers Watson about why political risk is moving from a background concern to a front-line business problem. Sam breaks down the rise of “gray zone” attacks in the space between war and peace—from covert sabotage to infrastructure disruption—and explains why these threats are so difficult to mod
Cyber Risk in 2026 and Why Near Misses Matter More Than Losses With Morgan Hervé-Mignucci
In our first episode of the New Year we are focusing on cyber risk in 2026, a peril that looks increasingly systemic, yet remains poorly understood when it comes to how losses actually materialize.Over the past decade, cyber risk modeling has matured rapidly. But as cloud concentration deepens, dependencies multiply, and “near miss” events become more frequent, a central question remains
Climate, Markets and the Limits of Insurability with Dave Jones
In the last episode of Risky Science, we examined skepticism around climate-conditioned catastrophe models with Roger Pielke Jr.—questioning how much weight long-range climate assumptions should carry in near-term insurance and capital decisions.Today’s discussion is a direct counterpoint.My guest is Dave Jones, former California Insurance Commissioner and now director of the Climate Risk
Climate, Catastrophe Models and the Limits of Prediction with Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.
Register for the January 8 Risky Science Podcast LiveIn this episode, I’m joined by Roger Pielke Jr., a researcher known for his work on the use—and misuse—of models in risk and policy decisions. Pielke is a polarizing figure in climate research, particularly for his views on how climate change should—and should not—be incorporated into catastrophe models used for annual insurance and rei
Housing Prices, Climate Signals and Reinsurance Shocks with Dr. Philip Mulder
Register here for the January 8 Risky Science Podcast LiveThis week on the Risky Science Podcast, I’m joined by Dr. Phillip Mulder of the University of Wisconsin, co-author of a newly released research paper examining how these insurance pressures are influencing who buys, who moves, and who can no longer afford to stay.The research has drawn significant attention, including coverage in T
Weather, Risk & Europe’s Energy Upheaval with TP ICAP’s Tim Boyce
Our guest is Tim Boyce of TP ICAP, who has spent more than 25 years in financial markets, from US-dollar swaps in London to commodities in Singapore, before returning to the UK to build out the firm’s European weather business. Tim describes weather as a “sleeping giant,” a market that should be much bigger given how energy, logistics, agriculture, and retail all rely on predictable wea
Pandemics, Models and the Limits of Securitization with Dr. Susan Erikson
On today’s episode of the Risky Science Podcast, we’re stepping outside the usual finance lens and into a conversation that will push many of your assumptions about how risk, capital, and human health actually interact. Dr. Susan Erikson: medical anthropologist and author of Investable!, brings a perspective that most risk and financial professionals rarely engage with, but absolutely nee
Opening China’s Weather Risk Markets with climateHedge’s Jim Huang
China was once seen as a vast, untapped frontier for global risk finance — drawing interest from New York to London. Yet a combination of geopolitical headwinds and trade tensions has cooled expansion plans for many executives hoping to grow their Asian footprint.That hasn’t stopped real innovation — especially in weather and physical-risk finance, where the market potential is becoming i
Sweet Earnings, Sour Investors and the Insurance Cycle Reset with KBW’s Meyer Shields
This week I’m joined by Meyer Shields of KBW, one of the most followed insurance analysts on Wall Street. We get into what’s driving that split, how AI and modeling are — or aren’t — starting to show up in real financial performance, and whether today’s property catastrophe discipline is a genuine structural reset or just another hard market waiting to unwind.
Building Trust In AI-Driven Weather and Risk Models With Dr. Hansi Singh
This week’s guest is Dr. Hansi Singh, an Earth system scientist who’s worked at the U.S. Department of Energy, taught in academia, and now leads a startup called Plannette.AI, which blends physics and AI to deliver long-range weather forecasts for industries including finance and insurance.In this conversation, Dr. Singh explains why AI’s biggest weather-forecasting success have been with
From Models to Markets and Future of Catastrophe Risk with Dr. Paul Wilson
Dr. Paul Wilson, Head of Catastrophe and Climate Research at Twelve Securis, a leading insurance-linked securities asset manager, sits down for a live recording of the Risky Science Podcast.
AI, Climate, Catastrophe and Why Markets Need To Rethink Risk with Dr. Seth Baum
We sit down with Dr. Seth Baum, Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and research affiliate at Cambridge University’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. We explore how societies understand and prepare for global-scale threats—from climate change and pandemics to nuclear conflict and artificial intelligence. Dr. Baum explains why uncertainty is the defining f
Prediction markets and disrupting insurance with Kalshi's Shannon Magiera
Join the Risky Science Podcast for a live discussion with Dr. Paul Wilson, Tuesday, September 23, 11 a.m. ET.Register Here
Climate, Correlation, and Cat Bond Investing with Plenum Investments’ Dirk Schmelzer
We speak with Dirk Schmelzer, Partner at Plenum Investments in Zurich. Dirk has spent more than 15 years managing catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities funds, and he brings a practitioner’s perspective on how catastrophe models are actually used in portfolio management and investment decisions.We’ll explore how models have evolved, where they still fall short, and how issues li
Why Trust, Transparency, and Testing Define the Future of Cat Bonds And Models with KCC’s Karen Clark
This week we speak with Karen Clark, founder of Karen Clark & Company, about the evolution of catastrophe modeling and the shift toward higher-frequency, climate-driven events.
The Modeled Through Line from Hurricane Katrina to Cyber Catastrophe Risk with Fermat Capital’s John Seo
John Seo, founder of Fermat Capital, about the lessons of Katrina for catastrophe bonds and models 20 years later.
(00:00) - Introduction
(02:00) - Katrina as a Market Catalyst
(06:30) - Investor Confidence Under Fire
(11:00) - The First True Test of Catastrophe Models
(16:00) - Politics, Policy, and Deductibles
(22:30) - The In-House View of Models
(28:00) - Beyond Peak Perils
(34:00) -
Pricing and Modeling Wildfire Risk in the Nation's Most Expensive Housing Market with Stanford's Michael Wara
Less than a year after the devastating Los Angeles fires, I’m joined by Michael Wara from Stanford University.We explore why Michael is skeptical about California developing a public wildfire model, despite being part of the strategy group that studied it. We'll dig into how the newly approved private wildfire models are about to transform California's insurance market. And we'll discuss
Severe Convective Storms are Reshaping Insurance and Modeling with Dr. Victor Gensini
We talk with Dr. Victor Gensini, a professor at Northern Illinois University and one of the leading experts on severe convective storms. Dr. Gensini works with the Insurance Information Institute and has just launched a new center for convective storm research, bringing together academic research and industry needs to tackle this modeling challenge.We'll explore why these storms are so mu
Cascading Risks And a Cascadia Mega Quake With Dr. Tina Dura
In this episode we talk with Dr. Tina Dura, a coastal hazard researcher at Virginia Tech, as she unpacks a threat that most risk models still underestimate: Sudden land subsidence from a long expected Cascadia subduction zone earthquake.
Multi‑Hazard Events, Messy Data and Climate Insurance Models with Michiel Ingels
We're joined by Michiel W. Ingels, lead author of research that takes stock of the state of climate risk insurance modeling and maps out where it needs to go next.
Floods, Risk Models, and the Future of Insurance With ReThought's Cory Isaacson
On this episode of the Risky Science Podcast, we talk with Cory Isaacson, CEO of ReThought Insurance — a longtime tech and insurance executive who’s spent years building new models aimed at making flood risk more accurate, more transparent, and more insurable.
Modeling Pandemic Risk: Dr. Neil Ferguson on the Future of Epidemiology, Policy, and Private Markets
In this episode we speak with Dr. Neil Ferguson, a leading voice in infectious disease modeling and Director of the Jameel Institute at Imperial College London. We talk about how disease models are built, how they’ve evolved over the last two decades, and what happens when they move from academic research into policy, politics, and even the private sector.
Multi-Hazard Modeling, AI, and the Future of Risk With Paolo Bocchini
We're joined by Dr. Paolo Bocchini, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Lehigh University, a leading researcher in catastrophe modeling and infrastructure resilience. Dr. Bocchini is the director of Lehigh’s Center for Catastrophe Modeling and Resilience, and he’s spearheading a new collaboration with Rice University—the Consortium for Enhanced Resilience and Catastrophe
Wargaming, Combat Modeling, and Escalation Risk With CNA’s Dr. Jeremy Sepinsky
In this episode of the podcast, we are shifting from modeling physical risks to exploring how wargaming and combat modeling is being used to understand the growing threat of geopolitical conflict.Our guest is Dr. Jeremy Sepinsky, Lead Wargame Designer at CNA, a federally funded research and development center that supports national security analysis. We dive deep into how wargaming differ
Open Models, Collaboration, and Catastrophe Risk With Oasis’s Dickie Whitaker
In this episode of the Risky Science Podcast, Dickie Whitaker, CEO of the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, discusses how open-source catastrophe modeling is transforming the risk ecosystem. Whitaker shares the origin story of Oasis and how the platform is working to lower barriers to entry, spur innovation, and increase transparency in a space long dominated by proprietary models. The conv
Private Credit, Liquidity, Longevity and Life Insurance With S&P’s Carmi Margalit
As insurers seek higher yields in a persistent high-rate environment, private credit has become an increasingly significant part of portfolio strategies. But with that growth comes a new set of questions—about liquidity, transparency, and the long-term implications for credit quality. Carmi Margalit shares S&P’s analytical framework for assessing these risks, highlighting what insurer
Modeling Risk in a Non-Stationary Climate with Dr. Daniel Swain
After a long hiatus, we’re back—launching a new series of conversations with finance professionals, academic researchers, and technology leaders focused on a rapidly growing and often misunderstood area of risk: modeling.In this episode, we kick things off with a conversation about weather and climate modeling with Dr. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agri
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