Home Podcasts Inside Prediction Markets

Inside Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Gurus 17 Episodes Oct 7, 2026

Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. New episodes drop Wednesdays, featuring market deep dives, expert guests, and strategy analysis. This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice.

Episodes

Novig Climbs to #1 in Sports: What’s Behind the Downloads? Oct 7, 2026 00:37:18 This week, we discuss the CFTC’s potential collaboration with the SEC, Novig’s climb to #1 in the App Store’s sports category and prediction markets’ growth as the NFL season unfolds. Then, we get into what bettors actually want: what makes someone choose a sportsbook over a prediction market, how app design shapes that choice and why a simpler experience might matter more than better odds.

NFL Hype vs. Reality: Which Quarterbacks Are Worth Backing? Sep 30, 2026 00:35:01 This week, @ssigsbee had his first losing month, Kalshi’s allowing margin trading and Novig hit $100 million in a single day! Then, we get into Survivor and Chris’ observations so far. We finish up with our NFL takes from the past few weeks: Deshaun Watson isn’t that bad, Ben Johnson’s not getting enough credit, the Rams are not a top 5 team and JJ McCarthy & Drake Maye markets.

Turning $100 to $1M on Prediction Markets: How to Build a Winning Operation Sep 23, 2026 00:39:34 Our guest this week, @evenstevengg on X, started sports betting in 2022 with $100 on a sportsbook. Now he hasn't placed a sportsbook bet in months. We talk about why he went all-in on prediction markets: the proposed 90% gambling-loss deduction rule, week-long withdrawals vs. next-day payouts on PMs and why offshore books are in a "slow death." Plus how he turned a rough first month

CFB vs. NFL Kickoff Weekend: Where the Real Volume Showed Up Sep 16, 2026 00:33:05 Football is back! This week we discuss Pinnacle’s statement on X, FanDuel’s market making on Kalshi and where the vig gets applied differently depending on how competitive a given market is. We describe our necessities in an odds screen and the tools we've built to track line history, fills and exchange flow in real time.Then we get into a big slate of football. College football week 2 deliver

Week 1 NFL Picks, Power Rankings & Why This Pro Bettor Is All-In on the L.A. Rams Sep 9, 2026 00:54:44 This week, pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola (X: @robpizzola) joins us to break down Week 1 NFL matchups. He walks us through his background, his automated closing-line-driven betting process and how prediction market liquidity is reshaping sportsbook limits heading into the season. From there we dig into Seahawks-Patriots (and the safety injuries moving that line) and the travel-schedule twist in Ram

Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Legal Test Yet: Explained By Top Sports Betting Attorney Sep 2, 2026 00:44:44 This week we discuss LSU reportedly using prediction markets to hedge Lane Kiffin-related bonuses, Donald Trump Jr.’s ties to the industry, the politics surrounding prediction market regulation and whether the industry could eventually become too big to unwind.Then, gaming and prediction markets attorney, Alex Dubin, joins the show to break down the Ninth Circuit’s ruling against Kalshi, why it co

The Race to Dominate NFL Prediction Markets Aug 26, 2026 00:29:32 This week, President Trump expressed his support of prediction markets in the U.S., our Novig CEO and co-founder Jacob had a CNBC feature and NFL players are returning to college football. Then, we get into the NFL markets that are already exceeding expectations before the regular season begins. We unpack the surge in preseason trading volume and predict just how massive trading will become Week 1

Professional NFL Handicapper Reveals His Biggest Preseason Edges Aug 19, 2026 00:54:32 We open this week with our 3 big things: Kalshi has a new 3.5% maker fee on RFQs, Underdog just released a new crash-style game and Novig passed Rothera in trailing 7-day prediction market volume!Then, our good friend Hitman joins us to discuss all things NFL. He shares how he got into the touting space and then breaks down how he approaches NFL preseason betting and identifies teams the market ma

The Prediction Market Takeover Is Just Getting Started | BetBash 2026 Aug 12, 2026 00:59:33 For this week’s episode, we filmed in Las Vegas at BetBash 2026! We sat down with our good friend Pads to hear how he went from working as a chemical engineer to becoming a full-time professional bettor and eventually joining Bookie Beats. We break down live betting, some of the biggest opportunities and debates in sports betting right now and how prediction markets are rapidly changing the space.

Inside Novig’s New Market Making Firm: Manhattan Athletic Group (MAG) Aug 5, 2026 00:39:04 Underdog just sold to IG group for $1.3 billion and the state of New York is suing Kalshi for $36 billion. This week we also discuss BetBash, the annual sports gambling networking conference in Vegas. We talk about what to expect, advice if you’re a first timer and people we’re excited to see. Then, we officially introduce MAG: Manhattan Athletic Group. MAG is Novig's new market making firm de

From Poker To Prediction Markets: How To Build A Profitable Operation Jul 29, 2026 00:41:04 Netflix released a new documentary about prediction markets and is facing some backlash. Kalshi is threatening legal action towards Netflix based on some false information revealed in the trailer for the documentary. Also, ProphetX raised $35 million to expand their federally regulated sports prediction market platform and Fanatics has acquired their own prediction market exchange. Then, Camden Ma

Building a Winning Prediction Market Trading Team Jul 22, 2026 00:36:09 Kalshi is rolling out compute forward curves and really expanding after World Cup markets have brought an insane wave of volume into prediction markets this summer. Also, Underdog Fantasy is officially entering the space with its own prediction market exchange and Henry and Chris discuss what platforms will be most popular for the NFL season ahead. Then, Larry and Joe join them in the OpticOdds Ho

How AI Gives You a Massive Edge on Prediction Markets Jul 15, 2026 00:26:59 From Kalshi's new Pro trading terminal to the Bryce Harper FanDuel controversy, Henry and Chris discuss all the biggest stories this week. Importantly, they dive into how AI is completely changing the way prediction market traders work and how the rapid adoption of tools like Claude, ChatGPT and Perplexity have transformed traders' workflow. They debate whether AI can help traders build an

Malik Beasley EXPOSED, Prediction Market BANNED in Michigan, and World Cup Volume SHATTERING Records Jul 1, 2026 00:31:49 A Michigan judge has banned Kalshi from offering sports contracts in the state unless they obtain an OSB license — and ordered $120,000 per day in fines if they don't comply. Chris and Henry break down why this is just another stop on the inevitable road to the Supreme Court. Then: Malik Beasley gets caught shaving props for pocket change — texts showing him scrambling to put together $2,000 while

Inside the Mind of a 15-Year SIG Trader & The Future of Prediction Markets Jun 24, 2026 00:47:38 Former Susquehanna International Group (SIG) trader Andrew Courtney (@andrewcourt1) joins the Optic Odds Hot Seat to discuss what it's really like inside one of the world's most respected trading firms.Andrew spent 15 years at SIG, where he worked in market making, ETF trading, and trading system development before eventually finding his way into prediction markets. Along the way, he learn

Optic Odds CEO on Powering the Industry + World Cup Volume Shattering Records Jun 17, 2026 00:32:27 Matt Restivo, CEO of Optic Odds, joins Chris and Henry in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Matt traces the full origin story: from a Stanford dorm room startup called OddsJam to the realization that the real value wasn't the consumer product but the data infrastructure powering it. He covers how Optic Odds became the cornerstone of the prediction market tech stack, and his most expensive lesson — not

This NYC Bar Is Using Prediction Markets to Hedge Your Tab If the Knicks Win Jun 3, 2026 00:50:09 A New York City bar is covering every customer's tab if the Knicks win game one — and they're hedging the entire risk on a prediction market. Chris and Henry break down why this is one of the smartest real-world use cases for prediction markets yet and how Mattress Mack was doing this years before prediction markets existed. Also, Polymarket resolves a MicroStrategy Bitcoin market to No ev

The Insider's Guide to Prediction Market Terminology: Defining the Terms You Need to Know May 27, 2026 00:38:42 Kyle Kuzma — yes, the NBA player — became an unlikely prediction market hero this week by clapping back at the DraftKings co-founder's Twitter tirade. Then: the Ninth Circuit signals it's going to rule against prediction markets on sports contracts, setting up the split circuit that everyone was expecting and almost certainly sending this to the Supreme Court. Plus, the New York Times runs

Matt Kalish Crashes Out + 4casters Zach on the Future of Prediction Markets May 20, 2026 00:36:17 Matt Kalish — co-founder of DraftKings — had a very public meltdown on Twitter this week about prediction markets, and Chris and Henry break down every angle. Sporttrade suspends OSB operations and Polymarket and Nasdaq announce perpetual contracts on individual stocks, which raises the obvious question: is this just an option with a different name?Then Zach from 4casters joins in the Optic Odds H

The Insider's Guide to Market Making on Prediction Markets May 14, 2026 00:33:06 What actually is market making? If you've ever asked yourself that question, this is the episode for you.FanDuel and DraftKings just announced they're market making on prediction markets. Then Kalshi dropped numbers showing over 30% of their volume is now in combos — primarily sports parlays. Chris and Henry break down what it all means, whether sportsbooks actually have the capability to

Big Prediction Market Ghost Orders Scandal and How One Market Maker Beats Every Exchange May 6, 2026 00:54:52 Polymarket had a rough week — and Chris and Henry break down both stories. First: ghost orders Then: their CMO was caught on a live stream nearly whispering something to a popular streamer before realizing he was on camera — a clip that went viral for all the wrong reasons.Also, Max Shen-Molesky of Coinflip Capital joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Max has quietly become one of the most dominant l

The Maduro Insider Trading Scandal and Shipper on How Sharps Actually Win Apr 29, 2026 00:49:22 A U.S. soldier was just prosecuted by the DOJ for betting $400,000 on a prediction market using classified military intelligence about the Maduro situation — and Chris and Henry break down why this is actually a landmark moment for the space. It wasn't done on a CFTC-regulated platform, but it still matters: the system is starting to work, Trump is calling the world a casino, and the CFTC commissi

The Insider's Guide to Getting Hired at a Prediction Market Apr 22, 2026 00:47:47 Chris and Henry pull back the curtain on what it actually takes to get hired at a prediction market company. They start with their own stories — how Chris reached out cold and created his own role, how Henry cold-emailed a cover letter and got hired by pitching a vision the company didn't even know it needed yet — and why both paths have one thing in common: initiative.From there it's a fu

Ohio Is Trying to Kill Sports Betting + Harry Crane on the Fascinating Kelly Criterion Debate Apr 15, 2026 00:46:30 Ohio just introduced a bill that would effectively kill online sports betting in the state. Chris and Henry break down why it's unlikely to pass but why it matters, plus a tease of what looks like perpetual contracts coming to a major prediction market platform, and a look at Chris's Substack deep dive into his journey as a professional gambler.Then Harry Crane joins in the Optic Odds Hot

How To Bet The Masters + Novig Is Giving Away 500K Apr 8, 2026 00:58:03 Novig is at The Masters — LIV golfers including Jon Rahm and Cam Smith are wearing the Novig patch, and the Blue Blazer Jackpot is live on the app. Enter once per day by trading on the tournament winner, and if your pick wins you share a $500K Novig Cash prize pool. One winner also takes home the first-ever Novig Blue Blazer delivered in person by a LIV player. Visit augusta.novig.com to track ent

The NFL Just Put Prediction Markets on Notice: A Potential Victory For All? Apr 1, 2026 00:38:01 The NFL just asked prediction markets to stop listing easily manipulated outcomes — draft picks, announcer mentions, attendance markets — and Chris and Henry think it's actually a good thing. Then: DraftKings is quietly building an AI casino product nobody asked for, and Kalshi just filed to offer margin trading. All three stories before they sit down with Jake (@jbets212121), a former account

Arizona Just Filed Criminal Charges Against a Prediction Market Mar 25, 2026 00:38:11 A state just filed criminal charges against a prediction market for the first time in U.S. history — and that's just where this week starts. Chris and Henry break down Arizona's lawsuit, what it means legally, and why sportsbooks may be quietly pulling the strings. Then: the Polymarket Situation Room's rocky launch, the Schiff-Curtis bill to ban sports markets, AOC piling on, and why a

Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky on Why Prediction Markets Will Win Mar 18, 2026 00:32:25 Prediction markets are exploding — and Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky is right in the middle of it.In this episode of Inside Prediction Markets, we sit down with Jacob to break down how Novig went from a scrappy startup to a serious player in the space, why prediction markets are starting to compete with sportsbooks, and what the future of betting might actually look like.We also get into the moment No

Are Prediction Markets Actually Worth Their Jaw-Dropping $20B Valuation? Mar 11, 2026 00:28:57 Prediction markets are suddenly being valued like Silicon Valley unicorns. But are those numbers real — or just hype?This week on Inside Prediction Markets, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes break down the rumors that major platforms could be chasing $20 BILLION valuations after recent funding rounds. Is the industry really on that trajectory… or are investors getting ahead of themselves?We’re also j

Do Death Markets Actually Exist? Iran’s Fall Exposes a $54M Betting Scandal Mar 4, 2026 00:58:07 The debate around prediction markets just exploded. After more than $54 million was wagered on whether Iran’s Supreme Leader would fall from power, traders expected the market to resolve — instead, bettors were left furious when the platform voided the outcome.So do “death markets” actually exist? And where should the line be drawn between forecasting geopolitical events and profiting from them?On

Did Obama Start an Alien Market Frenzy? Feb 26, 2026 00:27:43 This week, the markets went into a frenzy. From extraterrestrial leaks to massive winter storms, the guys are breaking down who cashed in and who’s full of it.In This Episode:0:00 The Alien Explosion: President Obama dropped some cryptic ET info that sent markets soaring. Are Chris and Henry buying the hype, or is it all noise?2:00 SNOW SNOW SNOW: A massive snowstorm hit New York, and some savvy v

Why the feds are fighting with states about prediction market regulation Feb 19, 2026 00:24:26 The gloves are off! The federal government is demanding that states stand down on efforts to regulate and restrict prediction markets. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has a blunt message for state regulators: "I'll see you in court" if you step on the toes of his agency.But is this jurisdictional turf war actually good for the consumer? And what does it mean for the future of the industry?

Inside Prediction Markets

Episodes

Recommended