Prediction Market Movers
Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.
Episodes
Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets Can Fix Bad Decisions | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Dr. Robin Hanson to explore where prediction markets came from, where they're headed, and how they could become a much more powerful tool for decision-making.
Hanson revisits the early DARPA Policy Analysis Market controversy, explains the evolution of combinatorial prediction markets, and discusses why he believes organiz
Melissa Footlick on the Next Generation of Traders | Prediction Market Movers
What happens when proprietary trading meets prediction markets? Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News sits down with Melissa Footlick, founder and CEO of Catalyst, to explain how prop trading works and why she believes the traditional model needs to change.
Footlick breaks down evaluations, simulated-funded accounts, payouts, trading restrictions and the challenges traders face with complicated and c
Steve Ruddock Explains Why Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Test Yet | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with gaming industry analyst-consultant Steve Ruddock to examine how today's prediction markets compare to the early days of daily fantasy sports, online poker, and sports betting.
They discuss the legal battles surrounding Kalshi and Polymarket, the role of the Supreme Court, and why history may provide a roadmap for where pr
Can SportsPredict Find the Next Generation of Traders? | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Steve Kuhn and Shani Raviv, the founders of Sports Predict, to discuss how forecasting competitions are being used to identify top quantitative talent for trading firms.
They explain how Sports Predict evaluates forecasting ability through probability-based competitions and how consistent decision-making can be measur
Seni Thomas of Edge Markets on Banking & Payment Rails | Prediction Market Movers
How do professional prediction market traders move millions of dollars between exchanges, and why are traditional banks often unwilling to support them? In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Seni Thomas, founder of Edge Markets, to discuss the hidden infrastructure powering prediction markets.
From banking challenges and real-time payments to capital effi
How River Markets is Transforming Prediction Market Trading | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Oscar Levy, founder of River Markets, to discuss how his company is building prime brokerage infrastructure for prediction markets.
Oscar explains why liquidity is fragmented across exchanges, how River Markets uses smart order routing to help traders find the best available prices, and why execution quality becomes i
How Hunter Guo Built a Prediction Market Watchdog | Prediction Market Movers
Chris Gerlacher welcomes Hunter Guo, founder of Verdict HQ, on Prediction Market Movers to discuss Polymarket resolution risk and how a controversial MicroStrategy Bitcoin market led Hunter to build an independent watchdog for prediction market contracts.
Hunter explains how Verdict HQ scores markets using six factors: time clarity, resolution source, outcome definitions, edge cases, and post-trad
Gaeten Dugas Exposes Spotify Streaming Fraud That Broke Kalshi Markets | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with top 100 Kalshi trader Gaeten Dugas to break down how suspicious Spotify streaming activity allegedly manipulated prediction markets, and what the data reveals about coordinated botting campaigns.
The conversation explores how fraudulent Spotify streams affected Kalshi Culture Markets, why Ella Langley appeared destine
SafeBets Wants to Reward Skill, Not Losses | Prediction Market Movers
Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers! In this episode, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Gina Antoniello of SafeBets to discuss a new approach to prediction markets that rewards users for accurate forecasting without requiring them to risk their own money.
Gina explains how SafeBets uses Unicoin, an "accuracy economy," and institutional market intelligence to create a different model from traditi
Inside Professional Prediction Market Trading with Domer | Prediction Market Movers
Prediction market trader Domer joins host Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers for an in-depth discussion about the evolution of prediction markets, professional trading strategies, political forecasting, and the future of market resolution.
Domer shares his experience trading across hundreds of prediction markets, explains how his approach has evolved since the early PredictIt days, and di
Will AI Replace Jobs? Metaculus' Christian Williams Breaks It Down | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Christian Williams of Metaculus to discuss AI forecasting, labor automation, and the future of work.
Christian explains how Metaculus differs from traditional prediction market platforms, why reputation-based forecasting can produce valuable insights, and how forecasters approach complex questions involving AI, geopol
Jan Czarnocki Explains How AI Could Transform Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Jan Czarnocki of Elastics AI to explore how artificial intelligence could reshape the future of prediction market trading. Jan explains how Elastics AI is building tools that allow traders to turn market convictions into automated strategies.
The conversation dives into the growing intersection of AI, forecasting, and fina
Ed Silva on DraftKings, Political Trading & Prediction Market Data | Prediction Market Movers
Ed Silva joins Prediction Market Movers to discuss his decade at DraftKings, the evolution of sports betting, and how those lessons apply to the rapidly growing prediction market industry.
Ed explains the similarities and differences between sports bettors and political traders, liquidity challenges, and why prediction markets still feel like an early-stage industry.
The conversation explores pred
Avi Arora on Oddpool, Institutional Traders & Prediction Market Data | Prediction Market Movers
On this edition of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Avi Arora, co-founder of Oddpool, to discuss how institutional traders are approaching prediction markets and what infrastructure is still missing for large-scale adoption.
The conversation covers Kalshi, Polymarket, historical tick-level data, market-making, liquidity, institutional flow, prediction market analytics, and
John Phillips on PredictIt’s Future, Political Trading & Forecasting | Prediction Market Movers
Prediction Market Movers welcomes John Phillips, co-founder and CEO of PredictIt, for a deep discussion on the evolution of prediction markets, CFTC regulation, and the future of the industry.
Chris Gerlacher and John Phillips break down PredictIt’s legal battles with the CFTC, the DCM/DCO licensing process, and how political forecasting markets differ from traditional polling and sports betting p
Flip Pidot on Political Markets, Bias & Smart Money | Prediction Market Movers
Prediction Market Movers welcomes the Co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange Flip Pidot for a deep dive into prediction market efficiency, emotional trading, political forecasting, and the future of derivatives built on top of prediction markets.
Chris Gerlacher and Flip discuss how markets process information, why emotional bias creates persistent mispricing, and what separates accurate f
FutureSearch CEO Dan Schwarz on AI Forecasting & Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers
Prediction Market Movers is back with Dan Schwarz, CEO and co-founder of FutureSearch, to break down the future of AI forecasting, prediction markets, and the science behind writing high-quality prediction market questions.
Chris Gerlacher and Dan Schwarz discuss how platforms like PolyMarket and Kalshi handle market resolution, why poorly written prediction market questions create controversy, a
Inside Crypto Prediction Markets with Henry Lau | Prediction Market Movers
Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers. Chris Gerlacher sits down with Skywalk Founder Henry Lau to break down the current state of crypto prediction markets, including what’s changed over the past six months, what’s working, and what hasn’t materialized.
This episode dives into the rapid growth and saturation of the prediction market space, where over 150 platforms exist but only a fraction gen
Sports Betting vs Prediction Markets w/ Isaac Rose-Berman | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Isaac Rose-Berman of the American Institute for Boys and Men to break down the real-world impact of sports betting and prediction markets.
From beating sportsbooks to market making on exchanges like Kalshi, Isaac shares what actually separates profitable bettors from the rest—and why prediction markets are a completely dif
Inside Prediction Market Data Engineering & Market Matching w/ Shay Patel | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Shay Patel to break down how Delphi Markets is building the data infrastructure layer for prediction markets.
While most of the industry focuses on exchanges, this conversation dives into what happens behind the scenes — how fragmented APIs, messy data, and cross-exchange inefficiencies are creating opportunities for trade
From Manifold to MNX: Stephen Grugett’s Big Bet on AI Markets | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher speaks with Stephen Grugett, founder of MNX and co-founder of Manifold Markets, about the evolution from play-money forecasting platforms to real-money AI-focused derivatives markets.
MNX is building infrastructure for trading AI-native markets — including company valuation contracts, benchmark performance markets, and perpetual futures
Trading Trump's words, with Tyrael, a mention market trader | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with full-time mention market trader Tyrael, who has found much success in mention market trading — including a very profitable night during the State of the Union address.
Tyrael breaks down exactly how he approaches volatile mention markets tied to figures like Donald Trump, JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Zohran Mamdani — and wh
Alex Kane on CFTC Approval, Market Makers, Handle Taxes & Market Needs | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Sporttrade CEO Alex Kane explains why the company has officially applied for federal approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to become both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).
Instead of operating under 38 different state sports betting laws, Sporttrade wants to move to a single federal framew
Kalshi Trader Gaeten Dugas on Culture Markets, Politics & Insider Trading | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlach is joined by Gaeten Dugas, a top-100 Kalshi trader, for a deep dive into how experienced traders approach culture markets, political prediction markets, and insider trading risk.
Gaeten explains why his trading starts with genuine interest, from politics and government shutdowns to music, movies, and pop culture markets like Spotify charts
Richard Hanania on Prediction Markets, White Nationalism & the Midterms | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher is joined by political commentator and writer Richard Hanania for an in-depth conversation on prediction markets, Republican Party realignment, and the road to the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election.
Richard shares his personal history with prediction markets, from trading on PredictIt to being a named plaintiff in PredictIt’s
Building the Next Generation of Prediction Markets with Gigi Alcaraz | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher is joined by Gigi Alcaraz, Founder of Mira, to explore how social-first trading platforms could reshape the future of prediction markets.
Gigi breaks down Mira’s vision, why social markets and community-driven trading are becoming essential, and the biggest challenges facing prediction markets today.
She also shares her personal
Henry Lau on Skywalk's Growth, Market Integrity & Polymarket's Comeback | Prediction Market Movers
On this week’s edition of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Henry Lau, Founder of Skywalk, for an in-depth discussion on the rapidly evolving prediction market industry.
Chris and Henry break down Skywalk’s mission, their strategy for scaling the platform, and how builders can thrive amid shifting regulations and increasing competition. The conversation then shifts to P
Andrew Kim on Kalshi Cases, Sports Contracts & Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers
The two dive into the recent Kalshi case developments, how states could define swaps and the CFTC’s involvement in the prediction market landscape.
Plus, the two also explore responsible trading, the explosion of crypto and prediction markets, and project what the court's will decide in Kalshi cases.
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, en
Prediction Market Insights with Political Trader Ben Freeman | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with entrepreneur and prediction-market expert Ben Freeman to break down the future of forecasting, market structure, liquidity, and how AI is transforming trading platforms.
Chris and Ben discuss how he entered the prediction market space, the biggest problems with current market infrastructure, what founders misunderstan
The Future of Trading with ProphetX Co-Founder Jake Benzaquen | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with ProphetX Co-Founder Jake Benzaquen for a deep dive into the future of prediction markets.
Jake shares his journey through major career pivots, how he entered the prediction market ecosystem, and what it has taken to navigate CFTC compliance while building an innovative trading platform.
The conversation expands into
Evie (@0xgingergirl) on XO Live, Prediction Markets & the Creator Economy
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Evie, founder of XO Live — known online as @0xgingergirl — to talk about how her app is reshaping community engagement and prediction markets.
Evie shares how she pivoted from building a dating app to creating a thriving prediction market platform, the difference between men and women in trading communities, and why s
Zohran Mamdani’s New York? Damon Thayer React to Election Night | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Damon Thayer, the Political Director of Prediction News, to break down the results from this week’s off-year elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia.
Chris and Damon analyze what the outcomes mean for 2025 and 2026, why Zohran Mamdani’s New York could reshape Democratic politics, and how the primaries are becoming e
Jeremiah Johnson on Prediction Markets, & Life After Trump | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Jeremiah Johnson, Co-Founder of the New Center of Liberalism. Jeremiah shares how he got involved in prediction markets, his concerns about their role in politics, and how prediction data could reshape political discourse.
Chris and Jeremiah dive into the New York Mayoral race, explore what could happen if Zohran Ma
Trading Smart in Prediction Markets with @PredMTrader | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with @PredMTrader, a leading content creator in the prediction market space.
The two dive into PMT’s journey into prediction markets, the thrill of live trading, and how to find an edge in competitive prediction markets. Chris and PMT also explore the New York Mayoral race, discuss tips for young traders, and break down
Will Novig Be Sold? Joel Simkins on Prediction Market Acquisitions | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Joel Simkins, CEO and founder of XST Capital Group, for an in-depth conversation about the future of prediction markets and what could be one of the biggest shakeups in the space — the potential sale of Novig, one of the fastest-growing prediction market platforms.
Chris and Joel break down:
💡 The business and regulat
Damon Thayer on Prediction Markets, Politics & Post-Harris America | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Damon Thayer, Director of Politics at Prediction News and former Kentucky Senator, to explore the connection between sports betting, politics, and prediction markets.
Thayer takes listeners inside Kentucky’s journey to legalizing sportsbooks, discussing the behind-the-scenes process, economic impact, and what the stat
Manifold’s Wildest Trader: Tumbles on Losing Big & Winning Fans | Prediction Market Movers
On this edition of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with online prediction market entertainer and Manifest 2025’s “Best Debtor”, Tumbles (@32Tumbles).
Tumbles opens up about his wild journey on the Manifold trading platform, the types of markets he trades, and how things took a surprising turn leading to his infamous Manifest award. Chris and Tumbles dive deep into life as a p
Aggie’s Journey Into Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher welcomes Fifty-One Alpha founder Aggie (@BlondiePredicts), often called the queen of prediction markets. Aggie opens up about her background in tennis, her transition into finance, and how she developed her passion for prediction markets.
00:00 - Intro
1:00 - Aggies past life as a tennis player
3:15 - Transitioning into the business wo
Inside Kalshi with Noah Sternig: Prediction Markets & Pushing Limits | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Noah Sternig, former head at Kalshiand long-time prediction market enthusiast. Noah shares his insider journey into Kalshi, how he pushed the limits of what prediction markets can be, and his perspective on defining insider trading in the industry. The conversation also dives into the future of prediction markets, reg
Alex Kane on CFTC Regulations and the Prediction Market space | Prediction Market Movers
Welcome to Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher is joined by Sporttrade founder Alex Kane, an expert in sports wagering and the regulatory environment with legal betting. The two discuss Kane's background, why he started Sporttrade, his letter to the CFTC, concerns with the current landscape and more!
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal
Introducing Prediction Market Movers with Chris Gerlacher
Join host Chris Gerlacher as he kicks off Prediction Market Movers, the podcast covering the latest in prediction market news, trading strategies, and legal updates. Each week, Chris talks with top traders, industry insiders, and everything around prediction markets.
👉 Subscribe now to stay updated on everything happening in the prediction market industry.
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