The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
In today's ever-changing world, investors should challenge old assumptions and think outside the box. Markets trade on more than just economic data; they trade on geopolitics, technology, policy, and elections. Daleep Singh, Vice Chair and Chief Global Economist at PGIM, has spent his career at the intersection of markets and policy, from the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve to the White House. On PGIM's The Outthinking Investor, Daleep sits down with prominent economists, technologists, policymakers, and market veterans to map out the full distribution of what comes next—and why it matters.
Episodes
The Power Play: Is Fusion Nearing a Kitty Hawk Moment?
In an era of AI, data centers and electrification, rising power demand presents a range of challenges and investment opportunities across the energy sector. Bottlenecks in the supply chain, such as the backlog in gas turbine production, have grabbed headlines while the power-hungry digital infrastructure buildout lifts energy consumption. With the grid increasingly strained, commercial-grade fusio
Warsh's Opening Act: Inside the Fed's Regime Shift with James Bullard
The arrival of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve marked a regime shift. At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dropped its easing bias, opening the door to interest rate hikes as supply shocks collide with hotter demand. The Fed also announced five new task forces to evaluate key priorities, from inflation frameworks to AI's impact on productivity and the labor mar
Strategic Stalemate: What Investors Miss About U.S.-China Competition
The military concept of escalation dominance posits that the side controlling the pace and pain of a conflict determines the outcome. For most of the Cold War era, the U.S. had escalation dominance—militarily, technologically, and economically—but the use of economic statecraft was limited. That era is over. As great power competition intensifies, the relationship between the U.S. and China offers
Beyond the Battlefield: Chokepoints in the Age of Economic Warfare
Global conflicts are increasingly playing out in the economic arena, not just on the battlefield. The war in Iran represents a collision of both. Physical and financial chokepoints can be used for strategic leverage; they also raise potential vulnerabilities. To unpack how and why economic warfare is reshaping the macro landscape, Daleep Singh speaks with Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: Am
The Old Normal: Macro Shocks Amid War, AI, and Economic Rivalries
Marc Sumerlin, Managing Partner at Evenflow Macro and former Deputy Director of the White House National Economic Council under President George W. Bush, joins Daleep Singh for a conversation about economic transformation on this episode of PGIM's The Outthinking Investor. Daleep and Marc talk about macro shocks stemming from the Iran war, how U.S. budget deficits will influence policy rates and t
Second Order Effects – From Iran to China: A Live Conversation with Dr. Kurt Campbell
Daleep welcomed Kurt for an in-depth look at the U.S.-China relationship and the Iran war's implications for Asia-Pacific. Speaking in front of a live audience, they also discussed how geopolitical shifts are reshaping economies, strategic leverage lurking in critical supply chains, and the outlook for Japan.
Follow the Money: Inside the World's Financial Plumbing
Daleep Singh catches up with Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former senior adviser to the U.S. Trade Representative, to gather his perspectives on how entrenched imbalances are translating into strategic leverage between economic powers. They explore the world's financial plumbing, changes in trade and capital flows, and the implications for g
Rethinking Risk and Global Power with Jake Sullivan
Daleep Singh welcomes Jake Sullivan, the Kissinger Professor of the Practice of Statecraft and World Order at the Harvard Kennedy School and former U.S. National Security Advisor, for a conversation about the forces reshaping global power and what they mean for markets and investment strategy. In this episode, Daleep and Jake discuss: Whether the world is moving toward regional spheres of influen
Trailer: The Outthinking Investor
Markets trade on more than just economic data. They trade on geopolitics, technology, policy, and elections. In a world searching for a new equilibrium, old assumptions are expensive mistakes. Daleep Singh, Vice Chair and Chief Global Economist at PGIM, has spent his career at the intersection of markets and policy, from the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve to the White House. Now, Daleep is shar
Cycles, Crises, And the Currency of Change with Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio, founder of one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, joins us for a special edition of The Outthinking Investor. Dalio sat down with PGIM's George Patterson, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Solutions, for a conversation about anticipating the onset of big market cycles and constructing balanced portfolios for new regimes. They discuss the impact of idiosyn
AI Hype or Hazard? The Risks Behind the Acceleration
The technology industry has spent heavily on all things AI, from training large language models (LLMs) to building up the infrastructure required to meet demand. Investments across a range of sectors with exposure to the AI boom, including cloud computing, chips, data centers and the power grid, have lifted economic growth and supported financial markets through a period of global uncertainty. One
Factory Reset: Investing in the Future of Manufacturing
Investors might be witnessing the biggest industrial reshoring effort in more than a generation. The global race for technological superiority—particularly around AI and critical semiconductors—is pushing both private capital and government support into ramping up domestic production. Meanwhile, shifting trade policies and geopolitical risk have ignited a realignment in global supply chains impac
The Price of Policy: Taxes, Tariffs, and Capital Flows
Fiscal policy shifts, from taxes to tariffs, are steering global capital and trade flows. The US, for instance, is attracting investments despite the tariff headlines—illustrating how the impact of these policies continues to evolve. In a dynamic policy environment, taxes and tariffs could create new implications for asset classes, sectors, and market structures. This episode of The Outthinkin
Staying the Course: The Power of Long-Term Thinking in Volatile Markets
Sir Isaac Newton was a legendary physicist and mathematician. But even the man known for developing the theory of gravity failed to time the market. It is said that after cashing in his shares of Britain's South Sea Company, Newton bought back into the stock right before it crashed. Avoiding the most common mistakes that harm portfolio returns is essential to success in today's markets, where vola
The Rise of Geoeconomics: Power Dynamics Shaping Global Markets
The House of Medici, which ruled over Florence for much of the Renaissance period, established a political dynasty with influence built on successful ventures in commerce and banking. The Medicis predated the concept of geoeconomic power, or governments' ability to wield economic might to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. Today, soft power might be giving way to intensifying competition bet
Balancing Growth, Costs, and Geopolitics in Airlines
Airlines represent one of the most challenging and complex industries in today's economy. With thousands of flights moving people and cargo around the world every day, airlines manage a "complicated logistical dance," as Oscar Munoz, United Airlines' former Chairman and CEO, tells us in this episode of The Outthinking Investor. The airline industry has adapted and evolved through technological inn
Tariffs, Sanctions & Chokepoints: Investing in an Age of Economic Warfare
Critical shipping routes around the world, from the Panama Canal to the Bosphorus Strait, hold strategic importance for global trade. As a result, these chokepoints are often caught in the crosshairs of geopolitical competition. But in a new age of economic warfare, invisible chokepoints are also emerging. The dominance of the US dollar, economic sanctions, and tariffs on imported goods can all be
Trading Up: How Active ETFs Revolutionized Investing
Exploring the continued evolution of the ETF landscape, fueled by rapid growth in active ETFs and an expanding universe of investment choices. ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, were born out of a need for greater market liquidity following the 1987 stock market crash known as Black Monday. US regulators determined that institutions needed the ability to trade stocks more efficiently and cost-effecti
Raising the Stakes: Investing and the Art of Risk Taking
With a standard deck of cards, there are around 2.5 million potential hands at the start of each game of poker. The key to success is in the decision process—determining how to play a hand, and how much to bet, despite not knowing which cards are in another player's hand. Like in poker, every investment decision includes at least some degree of uncertainty. What lessons can poker teach investors
The New Arms Race: Supply Chains, Data, and National Security
The world's superpowers are engaging in a different type of arms race beyond the battlefield. With technology advancing at a speedy pace, a global competition for all the ingredients necessary to support artificial intelligence—from data centers and semiconductors to the AI models themselves—is heating up. Not only do these ingredients form the building blocks of today's economy, but building a se
Against the Grain: Challenging Conventional Wisdom for Better Outcomes
Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist and mathematician, formulated a theory called the butterfly effect—based on a hypothetical scenario in which a butterfly, simply by flapping its wings, affects a tornado weeks later. The butterfly effect illustrates how small actions in complex systems can lead to big changes, underscoring the challenges in making forecasts. This is particularly relevant for investor
Balancing Act: Economic Policy and National Security in a Fragmenting World
Italy surprised much of the world when it became the first—and only—member of the G7 to join China's Belt and Road program in 2019. Just four years later, Italy withdrew from the initiative. The about-face served as a microcosm of the geopolitical landscape's evolution. Policymakers have long viewed the economy through a geopolitical lens. But the overlap between the economy and national security
Future-Proofing Portfolios: Taxes, Tariffs, & Government Spending
The use of economic statecraft is on the rise. With rivalries among major economies intensifying, countries are increasingly employing tariffs, sanctions and subsidies, contributing to a global realignment in trade flows. Meanwhile, elections in the US and Europe portend new debates over taxes, government spending, and the right fiscal formula to support growth and productivity. In the US, the 201
Global Elections in Focus: The Impact on Investors and the World Economy
The "year of democracy" holds the potential to bring profound change to global politics, economic policy, and the investment environment. By the end of 2024, more than five dozen countries, accounting for nearly half of the world's population, will elect new leaders. Elections in Europe, including the UK, France, Germany and European Union, have already yielded both expected and surprising results
Investing In Cities: Private Capital's Growing Role In Urban Development
Cities have faced a host of challenges over the course of history, such as affordable housing, transportation, public safety and economic opportunities. In today's rapidly changing global economy, these challenges are becoming increasingly complex, with cities needing to adapt to technological advancements, climate risks, and fluctuating fiscal policies. The most successful cities are dynamic and
Retirement at Risk: New Ideas for an Uncertain Future
In the middle of the Great Depression, President Franklin Roosevelt spearheaded the creation of Social Security, forever changing the US retirement system and how Americans think about long-term savings. Only a few pensions existed at the time, and Social Security was the first government-backed program to provide for the basic welfare of all seniors. The retirement landscape in the US—and around
The Paradox of Diversification: The 60-40 Portfolio's Future
Harry Markowitz, the legendary economist and father of modern portfolio theory, has been credited with saying that diversification is the only free lunch in investing. However, his work on the efficient frontier shows that investors give up expected returns to lower expected risk. This may make diversification even more compelling. With uncertainty becoming a prevailing theme in financial markets
A Pension Comeback? The Future of Retirement in a Higher-For-Longer Regime
Millions of college students across the US graduate each spring and enter the workforce. When today's retirees entered the workforce in the early 1980s, pension plans and Social Security benefits were two of the main sources of retirement income. Just a couple decades later, defined benefit (DB) plans were overtaken by defined contribution (DC) plans such as 401(k)s, and an aging population was sl
Minding Your Blind Spots: Investment Strategies for a New Regime
The stock market crash of 1929 was a pivotal event that rippled across the globe. The Great Crash rocked financial markets, not to mention the world economy, and proved to be a precursor to the Great Depression. The sudden selloff wiped out the fortunes of investors who were ill prepared to ride out a bear market. Today, investors must heed the lessons from volatile markets of the past and take st
Healthy Returns: Identifying Future Winners Amid Rapid Medical Innovation
Some medical breakthroughs come from unexpected sources. The origins of new weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic—known in the industry as GLP-1s—can be traced back to 2005, when they were introduced as a treatment for diabetes. Two decades later, these drugs have seemingly burst onto the medical scene, gaining notoriety for their ability to help people lose weight and the potential implications for a
Forever in Your Debt: Investment Risks in an Era of Big Spending
A storm may be brewing off the coast. It is not a new concern for investors, but its intensity has grown. The US federal government owes more than $34 trillion—and counting. This level of debt has the potential to wreak havoc, even for the world's largest economy. Government debt has grown in other parts of the globe as well, and debt held by consumers and businesses can also pose economic risks.
Industrial Policy's Rebirth Is Reshaping the Economy
Industrial policy is making a comeback in the West. The US, Europe and other governments have introduced new incentives to the private sector in hopes of bringing supply chains closer to home, boosting domestic industries, and building strategic advantages in key technologies such as semiconductors and EVs. But success is not guaranteed. Can governments pick winners and losers? Do the potential be
S4 Trailer: The Outthinking Investor
In this environment of uncertainty, it's more important than ever for investors to think outside the box. Welcome to The Outthinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM that examines past events, present-day opportunities, and future possibilities across global capital markets. In Season 4, hosted by Toby Ricketts, experts from PGIM and the investment world bring unique perspectives as we
Help Wanted: Four Forces Transforming Labor Markets
The invention of the spinning jenny in 1764 upended the textile industry—and the women who earned a living weaving cotton and preparing fabrics in their homes. Suddenly, these jobs became obsolete. Just as the industrial revolution had a profound impact on how people worked and lived, structural forces are transforming global labor markets today, from slowing globalization to the advent of generat
Risky Business: Taking a Long-Term View on Market Shocks
In one of Rembrandt's famous paintings, Storm on the Sea of Galilee, a ship's crew struggles to navigate through an epic storm thrashing the ship. But toward the stern, Jesus sits calmly. This image graced the cover of Peter Bernstein's classic book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. So what can investors take away from a classic piece of Renaissance art? Market shocks can emerge sud
The AI Boom: Investing in a New Age of Tech
Fans of the long-running game show Jeopardy will remember that one famous contestant stood out from the rest. IBM's supercomputer, named Watson, beat two human opponents in a 2011 competition that brought artificial intelligence into the spotlight. More than a decade later, AI has taken a giant leap forward. Generative AI, made popular by the launch of ChatGPT, has already made its impact felt on
The New Oil: The Geopolitical Battle for Chip Dominance
Ever since the oil crisis of the 1970s and the creation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the United States has held millions of barrels of oil in a stockpile to safeguard the country—and its economy—from future supply shocks. Just as oil has kept the world's economic engine running, a new critical component has emerged: the microchip. Everything from satellites and missiles to cars and toaster
Future of Food: Vast Implications for Investors
From growing rice on Mars to developing new farming techniques here on Earth, the future of food is rapidly evolving. The global food system—spanning farms, factories, grocery stores and more—is a complex network that has far-reaching economic implications. It is also inefficient and increasingly unfit for purpose, encouraging innovation across the value chain that will give rise to attractive in
David Rubenstein: Investing with a Purpose
Watch the video version of this episode by visiting www.pgim.com/david-rubenstein. Private markets represent a fast-growing asset class with unique opportunities for investors. The growth of private equity in particular has transformed the investment landscape over the last several decades. Private equity assets more than doubled over the course of a decade to reach $11.5 trillion by 2021. David R
Pt. 2 - Lessons from the Banking Crisis: What Risks Remain?
This is the final installment of a two-part episode in which we further examine what sparked the latest bank crisis and whether it was a canary in the coal mine. Robert Armstrong, US financial commentator and writer of Unhedged for the Financial Times, and John Cochrane, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, join us to discuss the implications
Pt. 1 - Lessons from the Banking Crisis: What Risks Remain?
Like a lighthouse surveying the waters for signs of distress, investors are challenged to shield their portfolios from potential turmoil in financial markets. But uncovering risks before they reveal themselves is a monumental task—even for the most savvy investors. Fault lines lurking in the banking sector came into view in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. As a consequence of the p
Upside Risk: Uncovering Investment Opportunities in an Uncertain Market
The Hotel Lafayette in downtown Buffalo, New York, was the site of the first-ever meeting of the Optimist Club, which gathered during a tumultuous period for financial markets following the panic of 1910. Research has shown that optimism provides a sense of control. As uncertainty hovers over markets today, investors might seek to harness the power of optimism to overcome financial stress and make
Greying and Growing: The Investment Impact of Demographic Changes
Labor markets around the world tightened during the pandemic, contributing to a rapid rise in inflation. Demographic changes could make tight labor markets a lasting characteristic of the global economy. Most of the world's biggest economies are home to an aging citizenry, while their populations are growing at a slower rate overall. These trends have the potential to alter market dynamics in the
S3 Trailer: The OUTThinking Investor
When the future becomes increasingly uncertain, investors need to cut through the noise and think beyond the obvious answers. In season three of The OUTThinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM, global thought leaders and PGIM experts will bring their unique perspectives for the year ahead and beyond. Is inflation finally on the retreat? Can labor markets withstand an economic slowdo
Tail Risks and Protecting Against the Unknown
Investors are challenged to mitigate the impact of a variety of risks, from rising inflation to a global economic downturn. What about the risks that are harder to imagine? Recent events such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have altered the investment outlook in significant ways, turning a spotlight on the potential for new tail risks that may be on the horizon. In this episode, author and
The New Dynamics of Private Markets with Josh Lerner
The Canada Pension Plan has prospered by investing in alternative markets such as private equity and debt, becoming a model for institutional investors around the world. Today, global pools of private capital stand at over $12 trillion, doubling in just six years. In this episode, PGIM COO Taimur Hyat and economist Josh Lerner from Harvard Business School offer unique perspectives into the facto
The Future of the Energy Transition with Tom Steyer
The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy has created opportunities to invest in a broad array of green technologies. However, this evolution will be decades in the making with plenty of twists along the way. As the emergence of green energy takes shape, how can investors tap into renewables as well as underinvested corners of the traditional energy sector? In this episode, environment
The Price and Peril of a Low-Rate Regime with Edward Chancellor
The first experiment in quantitative easing ended in failure for 18th-century France. Is this a lesson for modern times? After years of ultra-low interest rates, central banks are tightening monetary policy to combat rampant inflation - a shift that has ignited volatility and depressed asset prices. With a sea change in interest rates underway, where can investors turn to bolster their portfolios?
Deglobalization in a Post-Pandemic, War-Torn World
The economy has undergone a massive transformation in a short period of time. Global lockdowns and the policy response to the pandemic have rippled through labor markets and supply chains, while war in Europe has added fuel to inflation's surge. As the economy continues to evolve, what investment opportunities lie ahead? How will recent trends in technology, energy and business play out? Rob Kapla
Larry Summers on Rate Hikes, Recession Fears and Stagflation
America's factories were humming during World War II, churning out supplies for the military. After the war, as government spending faded and inflation spiked, macroeconomists were worried that the economy would stumble. Nearly eight decades later, a surge in prices during the U.S. economy's recovery from the pandemic has stoked similar fears. What can we learn from the post-WWII period? Are we h
The Evolution and Future of Private-markets Investing
America's economy underwent massive change in the 1800s, a period when wealthy financiers like Carnegie, Vanderbilt and Rockefeller played crucial roles in driving the industrial revolution. Today, access to private markets is expanding, and savvy investors are embracing this evolution as part of a diversified portfolio. What are the advantages, challenges, and future opportunities for investors i
The Days of Disco May Preview Future Inflation
Investors may be looking back at the days of disco with a sense of déjà vu. Surging inflation, rising energy prices and the prospect of higher interest rates have sent a ripple through global financial markets – just like they did in the 1970s. In the Season 2 premiere of The OUTThinking Investor, we talk to PGIM experts to better understand today's inflationary shock and how it will play out for inv
S2 Trailer: The OUTthinking Investor
Pandemic. War. Inflation. Deglobalization. Investors around the world face one of the most uncertain and tumultuous periods in recent memory. The Ukraine invasion, a tightening labor market, and fragmented supply chains are driving rapid inflation, while rising interest rates will cause headwinds for growth. With global capital markets shifting faster than ever, investors need to keep their
Can Black Gold Be a Social Good?
The Surprising Transformation of Sovereign Wealth Funds: We look beyond the oil-rich lands of the Middle East to uncover the unexpected beginnings of sovereign wealth funds (in Texas, of all places) and examine the structure of the world's largest (in Norway). As AUM in SWFs continue to surge, how will they exert greater influence—and possibly even promote sustainability—over global markets?
From Overzealous Clergymen to Underfunded Benefit
The Bizarre Journey of Pension Plans: They got their start as an ambitious plan to support the penniless Scottish widows. Now, retirement assets are the largest pool of money in the world—by far—and have pronounced structural differences depending on which country a pensioner calls home. How did this happen? And how can pension plans stay solvent as the global population ages?
From the Gutters of London to the Toast of Wall Street
The Rapid-Fire Growth of ESG Investing: ESG is the trendy star of today's financial headlines, but it's also a movement that stretches back centuries. We look at the rich history of values-based investing, from its religious origins to a bold housing experiment in Victorian England, charting the course ahead for ESG by learning how market solutions can help answer social problems.
From High-Stakes Battles to Record-Low Yields
The Fascinating Evolution of the Bond Market: In our current environment of low—or even negative—interest rates, what can the past tell us about what's in store for the $120 trillion bond market? Join us as we examine the evolution of debt, where we'll learn how private credit fueled a financial revolution that has changed the course of history—from 1600s England, to the go-go Wall Street of the 1
Trailer: The OUTThinking Investor
Modern capital markets move faster and are more complex than ever, bringing together participants with oftentimes clashing goals and constraints. But by gaining a richer understanding of the market's ongoing evolution—from its remarkable origins to its tantalizing future—investors will be better equipped to navigate the changing dynamics of global financial markets. On The OUTThinking Investor, a
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